FX Strategy - 29 Aug 2016 PvB · 8/29/2016 · The bearish impulsive reversal from the 1.138 resistance confirms our outlook of a limited upside in the pair. This now opens up room

This commentary reflects the views of the Wealth Management Group of Standard Chartered Bank. Important disclosures can be found in the Disclosures Appendix. This document is provided for general circulation and information purposes only, it does not take into account the specific investment objectives, needs or financial

situation of any particular person or class of persons and it has not been prepared as investment advice for such person(s). ‘Person’ includes a corporation, co-operative society, trade union, sole proprietorship, partnership, limited liability partnership and any other business entity. Prospective investors should seek advice

from a financial adviser on the suitability of an investment, taking into account these factors before making a commitment to invest in an investment.

1

fx strategy fx | 29 August 2016 This reflects the views of the Wealth Management Group

USD buoyed by Fedspeak, but data this week key Fed chair Yellen and Vice Chair Fisher’s statements point to a strong possibility of a Fed rate hike in 2016. Though this is likely to be

supportive for the USD in the short term, we doubt it will be sufficient for a renewed secular rally in the USD. Hence, we believe this is unlikely to alter our medium-term outlook of a range-bound USD.

This week, we expect the EUR and GBP/USD to extend their losses further, but we remain neutral on USD/JPY. Despite BoJ governor Kuroda’s comments last week, markets do not seem very optimistic about the effectiveness of BoJ easing measures. We have also closed our short-term bullish USD/SGD outlook as the pair is now close to its short-term technical resistance.

Keeping in view the Fed’s focus on US economic momentum, data this week is key. The jobs data on Friday will be closely watched for signs of health, or otherwise, of the US labour market. Earlier in the week, US manufacturing ISM and core PCE data will be key. Outside the US, China manufacturing and Euro area inflation data may impact currency markets.

Pairs Outlook (2-4 wk) Summary comments Support 2 Support 1 Spot Resistance 1 Resistance 2EUR/USD Bearish Short-term pull-back towards 1.095 is expected 1.095 1.108 1.120 1.138 1.142USD/JPY Neutral Brief period of consolidation likely ahead of key 100 level 0.99 100.00 102.25 102.50 104.00AUD/USD Neutral Bearish bias developing, but break below 0.75 key 0.735 0.750 0.755 0.765 0.775USD/SGD Neutral Rebound follow-through now needs to breach 1.365 1.332 1.340 1.361 1.365 1.384GBP/USD Bearish Bearish tone once again hitting the GBP 1.250 1.280 1.312 1.325 1.340XAU/USD Bullish Gold now close to a key support region 1295-1310 1295 1310 1317 1365 1375NZD/USD Neutral Key resistance at 0.731 limiting upside for now 0.695 0.708 0.724 0.731 0.757EUR/GBP Bullish Narrowing rate differentials likely to support further gains 0.800 0.830 0.854 0.870 0.880USD/CNH Bullish Consolidation likely to extend, break above 6.700 needed 6.554 6.600 6.689 6.700 6.750USD/CHF Neutral Consolidation to continue, SNB to limit significant CHF appreciation 0.930 0.950 0.977 0.990 1.000USD/CAD Neutral Further oil price gains likely needed to support CAD 1.250 1.280 1.300 1.315 1.330AUD/NZD Bullish Important support at 1.035 to limit downside 1.000 1.035 1.044 1.078 1.100

Darker shade indicates more important technical levels

29 August 2016 | fx strategy

This commentary reflects the views of the Wealth Management Group of Standard Chartered Bank. 2

Contents USD buoyed by Fedspeak, but data this week key 1 12 month outlook 3 2-4 week outlook 3 FX trade ideas 3 Week in Review 4 EUR/USD 5 USD/JPY 6 AUD/USD 7 USD/SGD 8 GBP/USD 9 XAU/USD 10 NZD/USD 11 Interest Rate Differentials 15 FX Implied Volatility 16 Consensus forecasts 17 Disclosure Appendix 19

Steve Brice Chief Investment Strategist Clive McDonnell Head, Equity Investment Strategy Manpreet Gill Head, FICC Investment Strategy Adi Monappa, CFA Head, Asset Allocation & Portfolio Solutions Audrey Goh, CFA Director, Asset Allocation & Portfolio Solutions Arun Kelshiker, CFA Executive Director, Asset Allocation & Portfolio Solutions Rajat Bhattacharya Investment Strategist Victor Teo, CFA Investment Strategist Tariq Ali, CFA Investment Strategist Abhilash Narayan Investment Strategist Trang Nguyen Analyst, Asset Allocation & Portfolio Solutions



12 month outlook 2-4 week outlook

Pairs Outlook (2-4 wk) EUR/USD Bearish USD/JPY Neutral AUD/USD Neutral USD/SGD Neutral GBP/USD Bearish XAU/USD Bullish NZD/USD Neutral EUR/GBP Bullish USD/CNH Bullsih USD/CHF Neutral USD/CAD Neutral AUD/NZD Bullish

FX trade ideas

Initiation date Pairs Position Entry price

Current price Target Stop

1/8/2016 USD/SGD Long 1.345 1.361 1.380 1.330Please see the corresponding FX trade note for more details on each trade idea

Currency 12 month

EUR

JPY

GBP

AUD

NZD

CAD

CHF

CNY

TWD

KRW

SGD

MYR

IDR

INR

THB

PHP

Bullish Neutral Bearish

Please see the latest Global Market Outlook for more details Source: Bloomberg, Standard Chartered



Week in Review

Weekly performance of core pairs 19 Aug 2016 to 26 August 2016

Weekly performance of supplementary pairs 19 Aug 2016 to 26 August 2016

Source: Bloomberg, Standard Chartered

Pairs Week in Review

EUR/USD EUR/USD ended down (-1.12%). The EUR fell, amid an increased probability of a 2016 Fed rate hike following hawkish Fed comments. Disappointing economic data from Germany likely dragged on the pair.

USD/JPY USD/JPY ended up (1.62%). The JPY weakened against the USD, recording the second-straight weekly loss, amid prospects of policy divergence between the US and Japan. BoJ governor comments may have further weakened sentiment.

AUD/USD AUD/USD ended down (-0.83%). The AUD capped a weekly decline against the USD, amid weakness in commodity prices. The selective pull-back in risk-assets following Fed comments may have also weighed on the AUD.

USD/SGD USD/SGD ended up (0.93%). The SGD weakened against the USD amid a USD rally sparked by Fed policy makers’ speeches. Singapore’s weak inflation and production figures could have affected sentiment on the SGD.

GBP/USD GBP/USD was up (0.47%). Last week, upbeat economic reports likely signalled that the UK’s economy is showing resilience to the UK’s EU vote The GBP slid against the USD near the end of the week, amid more hawkish Fedspeak, though still completed a weekly gain.

XAU/USD XAU/USD was down (-1.51%). A stronger USD and rising expectations of another Fed rate hike could have dragged on gold.

NZD/USD NZD/USD was down (-0.50%). The NZD showed resilience to weaker NZ trade numbers, but fell following broad USD gains on Friday.

-0.50%

-1.51%

0.47%

0.93%

-0.83%

1.62%

-1.12%

-2.00% -1.00% 0.00% 1.00% 2.00%

NZD/USD

XAU/USD

GBP/USD

USD/SGD

AUD/USD

USD/JPY

EUR/USD

%

-0.31%

1.03%

1.84%

0.56%

-1.62%

-2.00% -1.00% 0.00% 1.00% 2.00% 3.00%

AUD/NZD

USD/CAD

USD/CHF

USD/CNH

EUR/GBP

%



EUR/USD We turn bearish on the pair (from neutral) amid renewed signs of another pullback

Bearish Key technical indicators*

Technical Indicator Action

RSI (14) Neutral

Oscillator (5,10) Sell

MACD (12,26,9) Sell

ADX (14) Sell

Momentum (14) Buy Key Levels Level Importance

Resistance 2 1.142 MediumResistance 1 1.138 HighSpot 1.120 –Support 1 1.108 MediumSupport 2 1.095 High

Key Signposts

Euro area CPI and core CPI

Aug 31

Euro area manufacturing PMI

Sep 2

US employment report Sep 2

* Please see Appendix for explanation on technical Source: Bloomberg, Standard Chartered

Fundamental Overview The US Fed policy remains the most important factor for additional EUR weakness. Recent

Fed guidance suggests a strong probability of a rate hike in 2016, which is likely EUR negative. Nonetheless, as the policymakers have highlighted, this is very sensitive to US economic data which needs to hold up. US job numbers this week will be closely watched.

Technical Analysis The bearish impulsive reversal from the 1.138 resistance confirms our outlook of a limited

upside in the pair. This now opens up room for an extension towards the 1.095 support region (38.2% retracement of the Dec 15’ uptrend and July 16’ low), but may initially encounter intermediate support at 1.108 (50% retracement). On the upside, a convincing rebound above 1.138 could indicate a deeper rally towards the 1.150 region.

Short-term pull-back towards 1.095 is expected


1.108

1.138

1.03

1.06

1.09

1.12

1.15

1.18

Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Apr-16 May-16 Jul-16 Aug-16

EUR

/USD

EUR/USD 50DMA 100DMA 200DMA



USD/JPY We remain neutral as major technical indicators still suggest a sideways move for now

Neutral Key technical indicators*


RSI (14) Buy

Oscillator (5,10) Buy

MACD (12,26,9) Buy

ADX (14) Sell

Momentum (14) Neutral Key Levels Level Importance

Resistance 2 104.00 HighResistance 1 102.50 MediumSpot 102.25 –Support 1 100.00 HighSupport 2 99.00 High

Key Signposts

Japan industrial production

Aug 30



Fundamental Overview Thus far, the messaging by the Fed and indications of further easing measures by the BoJ

appears to have halted, not reversed the JPY’s course. We believe, only a steeper Fed rate-hiking path, new unconventional monetary easing measures or a significant pick-up in Japan inflation are needed for renewed JPY weakness. Until then, sideways consolidation looks most likely.

Technical Analysis The recent bounce from the 99-100 region suggests the near term sideways consolidation is

likely to remain intact for the time being. Only a convincing breach of the downward-trending price channel, currently at 104, can open up significant upside. On the other hand, we would need to see a breach of 99 to indicate a deeper correction.

100 level remains a key signal for further downside possibilities


100.00

102.50

95

99

103

107

111

115

119

123

127

Feb-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 May-16 Jun-16 Aug-16

USD

/JPY

USD/JPY 50DMA 100DMA 200DMA



AUD/USD We remain neutral, but a breach of key support of 0.750 could indicate a bearish bias



RSI (14) Sell


MACD (12,26,9) Sell

ADX (14) Neutral

Momentum (14) Sell Key Levels Level Importance

Resistance 2 0.775 HighResistance 1 0.765 MediumSpot 0.755Support 1 0.750 HighSupport 2 0.735 Medium

Key Signposts

Australia retail sales Sep 1China manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI

Sep 1


Fundamental Overview The AUD has been supported recently by firm iron-ore prices and falling financial market

volatility. At the same time, however, we do not believe risks to further downside have been eliminated from a medium-term perspective. Our view of limited upside in commodity prices and sideways USD is likely to keep AUD gains in check.

Technical Analysis Extension of the pullback from the important 0.775 resistance level highlights additional

downside risks, but a break of the 0.750 (50% retracement from the May 15’ top) support region is still needed to suggest a deeper corrective phase. A break could lead to the next major support region at 0.735 (200DMA and Jan upward trending support-line).

Bearish bias developing, but break below 0.750 key


0.750

0.765

0.68

0.71

0.74

0.77

0.80

0.83


AUD

/USD

AUD/USD 50DMA 100DMA 200DMA



USD/SGD We turn neutral (from bullish) amid key technical resistance and further indication of USD gains



RSI (14) Neutral

Oscillator (5,10) Buy

MACD (12,26,9) Buy

ADX (14) Buy


Resistance 2 1.384 HighResistance 1 1.365 HighSpot 1.361 –Support 1 1.340 MediumSupport 2 1.332 High

Key Signposts



Fundamental Overview The USD outlook remains key for the USD/SGD pair. So far, resumption of significant capital

in-flows to Asia-ex-Japan has indirectly supported the SGD. However, with USD weakness likely reaching its limits amid increased probability of a Fed rate hike, we see limited upside in SGD. Moreover, additional MAS easing remains an additional risk.

Technical Analysis The strong rebound from the basing-support region around 1.33-44 region and breach of the

downtrend line from the May 16’ high suggests a bullish bias. However, the follow-through from here needs to be closely observed; a breach of resistance at 1.365 (61.8% retracement) is critical in this regard.

Rebound follow-through now needs to breach 1.365


1.340

1.365

1.30

1.35

1.40

1.45


USD

/SG

D

USD/SGD 50DMA 100DMA 200DMA



GBP/USD We turn bearish (from neutral) as the pair was unable to sustain its rebound

Bearish Key technical indicators*


RSI (14) Neutral


MACD (12,26,9) Buy

ADX (14) Neutral

Momentum (14) Neutral Key Levels Level Importance

Resistance 2 1.340 HighResistance 1 1.325 MediumSpot 1.312 –Support 1 1.280 HighSupport 2 1.250 High

Key Signposts

UK PMI manufacturing Sep 1US employment report Sep 2


Fundamental Overview Outlook for the GBP following recent policy easing now rests on the state of economic data

post ‘Brexit’. Recent data in some areas has not been as bad as initially estimated. This could limit downside for the time being, though a rally generally depends on a more sustained improvement in UK data as well as guidance from BOE on no additional easing.

Technical Analysis The rejection of the 1.325 resistance (near 50DMA) suggests bearish sentiment remains

intact for the pair. This resistance was also the downward sloping trend-line from the post-Brexit high of 1.3563, which appears to have been respected for now. However, the 1.280 support remains critical to indicate a deeper correction towards 1.250.

Bearish tone once again hitting the GBP


1.280

1.325

1.23

1.28

1.33

1.38

1.43

1.48

1.53

1.58

Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Apr-16 May-16 Jul-16 Aug-16

GB

P/U

SD

GBP/USD 50DMA 100DMA 200DMA



XAU/USD We remain bullish and believe dips could continue to offer buying opportunities

Bullish Key technical indicators and forecast*


RSI (14) Sell


MACD (12,26,9) Sell

ADX (14) Buy

Momentum (14) Sell Key Levels Level Importance

Resistance 2 1375 HighResistance 1 1365 MediumSpot 1317 –Support 1 1310 MediumSupport 2 1295 High

Key Signposts



Fundamental Overview Fed messaging in the outgoing week suggests an increased probability of a rate hike in 2016,

which could limit gold gains in the short term. However, given that rate hikes are still expected to be limited and the broad macro environment globally still remains accommodative, we believe downside in gold is likely to be limited. US non-farm data this week will be key.

Technical Analysis The break below the 50DMA highlights additional downside risks, however, the key support

region around 1295-1310 could limit downside in the immediate term. The 100DMA and the upward trending slope line from the Jan low are in this region. A breach, however, could open room towards 1250.

Gold now close to a key support region 1295-1310


1,310

1,365

1,000

1,050

1,100

1,150

1,200

1,250

1,300

1,350

1,400


XAU

/USD

XAU/USD 50DMA 100DMA 200DMA



NZD/USD We remain neutral as technicals remain constructive, though key resistance not yet breached

Neutral Key technical indicators and forecast*


RSI (14) Buy

Oscillator (5,10) Neutral

MACD (12,26,9) Neutral

ADX (14) Sell


Resistance 2 0.757 MediumResistance 1 0.731 HighSpot 0.724 –Support 1 0.708 MediumSupport 2 0.695 Medium

Key Signposts

China manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI

Sep 1


Fundamental Overview The NZD’s performance has been better than we expected, largely due to a more favourable

global backdrop. Firmer commodity prices and low financial market volatility have made higher yielding currencies more attractive. Over the medium term, continued suppression in spreads due to both further RBNZ easing and Fed tightening should put pressure on the NZD.

Technical Analysis Despite the pull-back on Friday, the key resistance region at 0.731 remains in focus. This area

includes the 76.4% retracement from the April 15’ high and a breach is needed to signal a much deeper rally. On the downside, the 0.690-0.700 is likely to continue to act as a key support region.

Key resistance at 0.731 limiting upside for now


0.708

0.731

0.60

0.65

0.70

0.75

0.80


NZD

/USD

NZD/USD 50DMA 100DMA 200DMA



SUPPLEMENTARY PAIRS

Narrowing rate differentials likely to support further gains View

Bullish

Breach of June highs suggests the rally has further legs. However, 0.87 remains a hurdle.

GBP weakness following easing BoE policy is likely to support the pair as rate differentials narrow.

Consolidation likely to extend, break above 6.700 needed View

Bullish

We turn bullish (from neutral) as technicals taken an increasingly bullish tone. Breach of 6.700 key.

We believe policymakers will continue to favour a weakening CNY for now, especially if USD strength picks up again.


0.830

0.870

0.680.700.720.740.760.780.800.820.840.860.88


EUR

/GB

P

EUR/GBP 50DMA 100DMA 200DMA

6.600

6.700

6.1

6.2

6.3

6.4

6.5

6.6

6.7

6.8


USD

/CN

H

USD/CNH 50DMA 100DMA 200DMA



SUPPLEMENTARY PAIRS (cont’d)

Consolidation to continue, SNB to limit significant CHF appreciation View

Neutral

We expect continued sideways movements around a broad 0.95-1.00 range.

The soft-peg to the EUR and SNB intervention to limit currency strength is likely to persist.

Oil price gains likely needed to support CAD bearish bias View

Neutral

Near-term consolidation likely to continue. Price action remains largely sideways with a slight bullish bias.

Oil prices remain key. Recent weakness has been a drag on the pair, but we expect prices to gradually recover.


0.950

0.990

0.89

0.92

0.95

0.98

1.01

1.04


USD

/CH

F

USD/CHF 50DMA 100DMA 200DMA

1.280

1.315

1.15

1.20

1.25

1.30

1.35

1.40

1.45

1.50


USD

/CAD

USD/CAD 50DMA 100DMA 200DMA



SUPPLEMENTARY PAIRS (cont’d)

Important support at 1.035 to limit downside View

Bullish

We turn bullish on AUD/NZD (from neutral). The 1.035 key support is likely to form a strong base from which a rebound can ensue. 1.07-08 resistance critical.

At present there is little clarity from both the RBNZ and the RBA on additional rate cuts. We prefer to remain on the sidelines.


1.035

1.078

1.00

1.05

1.10

1.15


AUD

/NZD

AUD/NZD 50DMA 100DMA 200DMA



Interest Rate Differentials

EUR/USD USD/JPY AUD/USD

GBP/USD NZD/USD USD/CAD


1.0

1.1

1.2

1.3

1.4

-1.50

-1.30

-1.10

-0.90

-0.70

-0.50

-0.30

-0.10

Mar-14 Sep-14 Mar-15 Sep-15 Mar-16EU

R/U

SD

%

EUR-USD 2 year interest rate differentialEUR/USD (RHS)

85

95

105

115

125

135

0.100.250.400.550.700.851.001.151.301.45

Aug-13 May-14 Feb-15 Nov-15 Aug-16

USD

/JPY

%

USD-JPY 2 year interest rate differntial (RHS)USD/JPY

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0


AU

D/U

SD

%

AUD-USD 2 year interest rate differntial (RHS)AUD/USD (RHS)

1.28

1.38

1.48

1.58

1.68

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

Aug-13 Aug-14 Aug-15 Aug-16

GB

P/U

SD

%

GBP-USD 2 year interest rate differntial (RHS)GBP/USD (RHS)

0.62

0.72

0.82

0.92

0.5

1.5

2.5

3.5

4.5


NZD

/USD

%

NZD-USD 2 year interest rate differntial (RHS)NZD/USD (RHS)

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

-1.5

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0


USD

/CA

D

%

USD-CAD 2 year interest rate differntial (RHS)USD/CAD (RHS)



FX Implied Volatility

EUR/USD USD/JPY AUD/USD

GBP/USD NZD/USD USD/CAD


3.5

5.5

7.5

9.5

11.5

13.5

15.5


%

EUR 1M implied vol

0

5

10

15

20


%

JPY 1M implied vol

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18


%

AUD 1M implied vol

4

9

14

19

24

29

34


%

GBP 1M implied vol

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18


%

NZD 1M implied vol

4

6

8

10

12

14


%

CAD 1M implied vol



Consensus forecasts

Consensus Forecasts Spot Q3 2016 Q4 2016 Q1 2017 Q2 2017

EUR/USD 1.12 1.10 1.09 1.08 1.08

USD/JPY 102.25 103.00 105.00 105.00 107.00

AUD/USD 0.76 0.75 0.74 0.73 0.73

NZD/USD 0.72 0.70 0.69 0.68 0.68

USD/SGD 1.36 1.36 1.38 1.39 1.38

GBP/USD 1.31 1.28 1.27 1.27 1.28

USD/CAD 1.30 1.31 1.31 1.32 1.30

USD/CHF 0.98 0.98 0.99 1.00 1.01




TECHNICAL INDICATORS – EXPLANATORY APPENDIX

RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI indicators can be used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. An RSI above 70 can indicate a currency pair is overbought while an RSI below 30 can indicate the pair is oversold.

Stochastic Oscillator – The Stochastic Oscillator compares where a security's price closed relative to its trading range over a given time period. The security or index is generally considered oversold when the Oscillator falls to 20%, while a reading of 80% is considered overbought.

MACD (The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence) – This indicator shows the relationship between two moving averages of prices. A bearish signal is provided when the main moving average line drops below the second moving average line, and vice versa.

ADX (Average Directional Index) – This indicator quantifies a trend's strength regardless of whether it is up or down. An index rising above zero provides a bullish signal while an index falling below zero provides a bearish signal.

Momentum Indicator – The momentum of a security is the ratio of today's price compared to the price at a given point in the past. If the security's price is higher today, the momentum indicator will be considered strong. If the security's price is lower today, the momentum Indicator will be weak.


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Disclosure Appendix This document is not research material and it has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. This document does not necessarily represent the views of every function within Standard Chartered Bank, (“SCB”) particularly those of the Global Research function. Standard Chartered Bank is incorporated in England with limited liability by Royal Charter 1853 Reference Number ZC18. The Principal Office of the Company is situated in England at 1 Basinghall Avenue, London, EC2V 5DD Standard Chartered Bank is authorised by the Prudential Regulation Authority and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority and Prudential Regulation Authority. United Kingdom: Standard Chartered Bank (trading as Standard Chartered Private Bank) is an authorised financial services provider (licence number 45747) in terms of the South African Financial Advisory and Intermediary Services Act, 2002 In Dubai International Financial Centre (“DIFC”), the attached material is circulated by Standard Chartered Bank DIFC on behalf of the product and/or Issuer. Standard Chartered Bank DIFC is regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority (DFSA) and is authorised to provide financial products and services to persons who meet the qualifying criteria of a Professional Client under the DFSA rules. The protection and compensation rights that may generally be available to retail customers in the DIFC or other jurisdictions will not be afforded to Professional Clients in the DIFC. Banking activities may be carried out internationally by different Standard Chartered Bank branches, subsidiaries and affiliates (collectively “SCB”) according to local regulatory requirements. With respect to any jurisdiction in which there is a SCB entity, this document is distributed in such jurisdiction by, and is attributable to, such local SCB entity. Recipients in any jurisdiction should contact the local SCB entity in relation to any matters arising from, or in connection with, this document. Not all products and services are provided by all SCB entities. This document is being distributed for general information only and it does not constitute an offer, recommendation or solicitation to enter into any transaction or adopt any hedging, trading or investment strategy, in relation to any securities or other financial instruments. This document is for general evaluation only, it does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person or class of persons and it has not been prepared for any particular person or class of persons. Opinions, projections and estimates are solely those of SCB at the date of this document and subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results and no representation or warranty is made regarding future performance. Any forecast contained herein as to likely future movements in rates or prices or likely future events or occurrences constitutes an opinion only and is not indicative of actual future movements in rates or prices or actual future events or occurrences (as the case may be). This document has not and will not be registered as a prospectus in any jurisdiction and it is not authorised by any regulatory authority under any regulations.


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SCB makes no representation or warranty of any kind, express, implied or statutory regarding, but not limited to, the accuracy of this document or the completeness of any information contained or referred to in this document. This document is distributed on the express understanding that, whilst the information in it is believed to be reliable, it has not been independently verified by us. SCB accepts no liability and will not be liable for any loss or damage arising directly or indirectly (including special, incidental or consequential loss or damage) from your use of this document, howsoever arising, and including any loss, damage or expense arising from, but not limited to, any defect, error, imperfection, fault, mistake or inaccuracy with this document, its contents or associated services, or due to any unavailability of the document or any part thereof or any contents. SCB, and/or a connected company, may at any time, to the extent permitted by applicable law and/or regulation, be long or short any securities, currencies or financial instruments referred to on this document or have a material interest in any such securities or related investment, or may be the only market maker in relation to such investments, or provide, or have provided advice, investment banking or other services, to issuers of such investments. Accordingly, SCB, its affiliates and/or subsidiaries may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this document. This document must not be forwarded or otherwise made available to any other person without the express written consent of SCB. Copyright: Standard Chartered Bank 2016. Copyright in all materials, text, articles and information contained herein is the property of, and may only be reproduced with permission of an authorised signatory of, Standard Chartered Bank. Copyright in materials created by third parties and the rights under copyright of such parties are hereby acknowledged. Copyright in all other materials not belonging to third parties and copyright in these materials as a compilation vests and shall remain at all times copyright of Standard Chartered Bank and should not be reproduced or used except for business purposes on behalf of Standard Chartered Bank or save with the express prior written consent of an authorised signatory of Standard Chartered Bank. All rights reserved. © Standard Chartered Bank 2016.

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FX Strategy - 29 Aug 2016 PvB · 8/29/2016 · The bearish impulsive reversal from the 1.138 resistance confirms our outlook of a limited upside in the pair. This now opens up room