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FY 2007 ANNUAL INVESTMENT REPORT MARTHA O. HAYNIE, CPA COUNTY COMPTROLLER

FY 2007 ANNUAL INVESTMENT REPORT MARTHA O. HAYNIE, CPA COUNTY COMPTROLLER

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Page 1: FY 2007 ANNUAL INVESTMENT REPORT MARTHA O. HAYNIE, CPA COUNTY COMPTROLLER

FY 2007 ANNUAL INVESTMENT REPORT

MARTHA O. HAYNIE, CPACOUNTY COMPTROLLER

Page 2: FY 2007 ANNUAL INVESTMENT REPORT MARTHA O. HAYNIE, CPA COUNTY COMPTROLLER

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Investment Objectives

• Safety• Liquidity• Yield

Page 3: FY 2007 ANNUAL INVESTMENT REPORT MARTHA O. HAYNIE, CPA COUNTY COMPTROLLER

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Agenda• Highlights• Benchmarks • Portfolio & Fed Rates• Treasury Yield Curves • Economic Conditions• Investment Committee• Committee Discussions• Recommendations• FY 2006 Portfolio Composition• FY 2007 Portfolio Composition• SBA Crisis

Page 4: FY 2007 ANNUAL INVESTMENT REPORT MARTHA O. HAYNIE, CPA COUNTY COMPTROLLER

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Highlights

(in millions) 2007 2006

Interest earned $67.2 $48.8

Effective rate of return 5.07% 4.38%

Average daily balance $1,325 $1,115

Page 5: FY 2007 ANNUAL INVESTMENT REPORT MARTHA O. HAYNIE, CPA COUNTY COMPTROLLER

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BenchmarksBenchmark FY 2007 Variance FY 2006 Variance

Portfolio 5.07% 4.38%

3-Month Treasury 4.86% 0.21% 4.57% -0.19%

6-Month Treasury 4.96% 0.11% 4.78% -0.40%

Merrill Lynch 0-1 Treasury Index 4.93% 0.14% 4.66% -0.28%

1-Year Treasury 4.86% 0.21% 4.76% -0.38%

2-Year Treasury 4.67% 0.40% 4.72% -0.34%

State Investment Pool 5.43% -0.36% 4.73% -0.35%

Effective Federal Funds 5.21% -0.14% 4.65% -0.27%

Committee Benchmark 5.00% 0.07% 4.71% -0.33%

Page 6: FY 2007 ANNUAL INVESTMENT REPORT MARTHA O. HAYNIE, CPA COUNTY COMPTROLLER

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Portfolio and Fed Rates

PORTFOLIO AND FEDERAL FUNDS RATES

0.25

1.25

2.25

3.25

4.25

5.25

6.25

7.25

Oct-03 Apr-04 Oct-04 Apr-05 Oct-05 Apr-06 Oct-06 Apr-07 Oct-07

Orange County

Fed Funds

Page 7: FY 2007 ANNUAL INVESTMENT REPORT MARTHA O. HAYNIE, CPA COUNTY COMPTROLLER

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Treasury Yield Curves

AVERAGE U.S. TREASURY YIELD CURVES

1.00

2.00

3.00

4.00

5.00

6.00

Fed Funds 3 Mo 6 Mo 1 Yr 2 Yr 5 Yr 10 Yr

2007

2006

2005

2004

2003

Page 8: FY 2007 ANNUAL INVESTMENT REPORT MARTHA O. HAYNIE, CPA COUNTY COMPTROLLER

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Economic Conditions• Deteriorating housing market• Slower economic growth• Decline in payrolls• Low consumer spending growth rate• Eroding consumer sentiment• Federal Reserve reducing interest rates• Tight credit conditions• Recession concerns• Rising Treasury prices• Below trend GDP growth forecasted in 2008

Page 9: FY 2007 ANNUAL INVESTMENT REPORT MARTHA O. HAYNIE, CPA COUNTY COMPTROLLER

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Investment CommitteeCommunity Volunteers

Ed ManningRetired Managing Partner of Ernst and Young, CPA

John Cheney, DBAAssociate Professor of Finance, University of Central Florida

Page 10: FY 2007 ANNUAL INVESTMENT REPORT MARTHA O. HAYNIE, CPA COUNTY COMPTROLLER

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Committee Discussions

•Pooling of enterprise funds•Increased liquidity•Inverted yield curve•Asset allocation•Sub-prime crisis•Commercial paper markets

Page 11: FY 2007 ANNUAL INVESTMENT REPORT MARTHA O. HAYNIE, CPA COUNTY COMPTROLLER

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Recommendations• Increase maximum investment in

the noncurrent portfolio

• Increase diversification

• Reduce SBA investment

• Add commercial paper (CP)

• Add bankers’ acceptances

• Limit financial CP maturities to 30 days or less

Page 12: FY 2007 ANNUAL INVESTMENT REPORT MARTHA O. HAYNIE, CPA COUNTY COMPTROLLER

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FY 2006 Portfolio Composition

FY 2006 AVERAGE PORTFOLIO COMPOSITION

Treasuries17.18%

Instrumentalities26.06%

SBA37.09%

Money Markets6.56%

BAs0.21%

CDs2.67%

CP6.58%

FLGIT3.65%

Page 13: FY 2007 ANNUAL INVESTMENT REPORT MARTHA O. HAYNIE, CPA COUNTY COMPTROLLER

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FY 2007 Portfolio Composition

FY 2007 AVERAGE PORTFOLIO COMPOSITION

Treasuries16.55%

CP10.63%

Instrumentalities28.92%

SBA29.93%

Money Markets5.28%

BAs5.05%

CDs3.64%

Page 14: FY 2007 ANNUAL INVESTMENT REPORT MARTHA O. HAYNIE, CPA COUNTY COMPTROLLER

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Current Portfolio Composition

JANUARY 14, 2008 PORTFOLIO COMPOSITION

BAs1.56%

Instrumentalities8.82%

Money Markets14.32%

CDs4.35%

Treasuries62.59%

CP8.36%

Page 15: FY 2007 ANNUAL INVESTMENT REPORT MARTHA O. HAYNIE, CPA COUNTY COMPTROLLER

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SBA Crisis• 10/31 – 3.4% of assets downgraded• 11/14 – Bloomberg article• 11/15 – Withdrew all County funds

•Asset quality concerns•Lack of clear communications from SBA

• 11/29 – State froze pool• 12/06 – Reopened with two funds

•Fund A: 86% of assets – High quality•Fund B: 14% of assets – Riskier assets•Redemption limit of the higher of $2 million

or 15% of assets

Page 16: FY 2007 ANNUAL INVESTMENT REPORT MARTHA O. HAYNIE, CPA COUNTY COMPTROLLER

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FY 2007 ANNUAL INVESTMENT REPORT

Interest earned $67.2 millionEffective rate of return 5.07%

The 2008 effective rate of return?

Page 17: FY 2007 ANNUAL INVESTMENT REPORT MARTHA O. HAYNIE, CPA COUNTY COMPTROLLER

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REPORT ONLINE

FY 2007 ANNUAL INVESTMENT REPORT

WWW.OCCOMPT.COM