Upload
christina-stathis
View
17
Download
1
Tags:
Embed Size (px)
DESCRIPTION
FY 2014 & 2015 U.S. Agricultural Trade Forecasts. Initial FY 2015 Forecasts Exports = $ 144.5 billion Imports = $117 billion Surplus = $27.5 billion. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Citation preview
FY 2014 & 2015 U.S. Agricultural Trade Forecasts
Initial FY 2015 Forecasts Exports = $144.5 billion Imports = $117 billion Surplus = $27.5 billion
Changes Since May in 2014 ForecastExports $3.0 billion to $152.5 billionImports $1.0 billion to $109.5 billionSurplus $4.0 billion to $43 billion
USDA’s “Outlook for U.S. Agricultural Trade”Released on August 28, 3:00 pm EST
Slides prepared by Office of Global Analysis/FAS
'93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 12 13 14(f)
15(f)
$0
$20
$40
$60
$80
$100
$120
$140
Bil
lion
$
27.5
Exports
ImportsTrade Surplus
Records
141152.5
109.5
103.8
37.1
43
Lower Bulk Export Prices and Greater Export Competition
144.5
117
U.S. Agricultural Trade
Grains, Oilseeds & Cotton
Grain and Feed $200 million - higher coarse grain exports more than offset lower wheat exports
Oilseeds $1.0 billion - strong exports of both soybeans and meal
Cotton $300 million - strong unit values
Livestock & Horticultural Products
Livestock & Products $1.2 billion – most categories up, especially dairy
Horticultural Products No Change
Exports forecast up $3 billion to a record $152.5 billion
FY 2014 Exports Revisions (Aug. vs. May)
Grains and Feeds
Oilseeds Cotton Livestock Prod. Horticultural Products
Sugar & Trop-ical Prod.
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4Initial FY 2015 Forecast vs. Revised FY 2014
Bill
ion
Do
llars
-$4.9 Billion
- $500 Million
+ $200 Million
+$2.7 Billion
-$5.1 Billion
-$600 Million
FY 2015 Forecasts
Bulk Total Grain Soybeans Cotton-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
-4%
-8%
2%0%
-16% -16% -17%
-13%
% Change FY 14 to FY 15 Forecasts
Volume Value
Most of Decline in Value of Bulk Exports Due to Lower Prices
Horticulture Expected to Be Largest Export Group for First Time
'08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14e '15f10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
Horticultural Products
Oilseeds and Products
Grain & Feed and Products
-$500 mil
-$3.0 bil -$400 mil
-$800 mil
-$200 mil
-$1.4 bil
-$400 mil
No Change
FY 2015 Export Changes by Market
-$800 mil+$100 mil
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 (e) 2015 (f)0
5
10
15
20
25
30U.S. Agricultural Exports to Canada, China, & Mexico
Bill
ion
Dol
lars
China
Mexico
Canada
Despite Fall, China Remains Largest Market
*Includes Wheat, Corn, Sorghum, & Barley
Imports Forecast at a Record $117 Billion
2014 (e) 2015 (f)0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Livestock and Dairy Products Grains, Feed, & OilseedsHorticultural Products Sugar and TropicalOther
Billi
on $
23.3 26.2
15.6
20.8 20.8
51.4 47.4
15.9
Revised FY 2014 Forecast: $36.0 Billion $200 Million
'03
'04
'05
'06
'07
'08
'09
'10
'11
'12
'13
'14f
'15f
13
17
21
25
29
33
37
41Export Value ($Bil)
Actual
August 14 Forecast
August 15 Projection
2015Key Developments
Corn volumes, values down on higher competition and weak pricesWheat prices down with abundant global supplies.
Wild CardsNew-crop South American corn plantingsWheat production in Southern Hemisphere2015/16 Northern Hemisphere winter wheat planting2014Key DevelopmentsCorn, sorghum boosted on strong demand
Export Outlook for Grain & Feed Products
Initial FY 2015 Projection: $31.1 Billion
Revised FY 2014 Forecast: $34.8 Billion $1.0 Billion
Export Outlook for Oilseeds & Products
2015Key Developments Export value down on lower unit pricesSoybean complex volumes rise on strong demand, lower prices Soybean and soybean meal volumes to set records
Wild Cards China soybean demandU.S. production prospects
2014Key Developments Soybean volume rises on record sales to China Soybean meal and oil volume up on stronger demand '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14
f15f
9
14
19
24
29
34
Export Value ($Bil)
Actual
August 14 Forecast
August 15 Projection
Initial FY 2015 Projection: $29.7 Billion
Revised FY 2014 Forecast: $4.7 Billion Up $300 Million
Export Outlook for Cotton
2015Key Developments Import demand slows further Prices fall on record stocks
Wild Cards Additional changes in China’s reserve policy Cotton yarn demand in China
2014Key Developments Unit values remain strong as prices fell
'03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14f
15f
0
2
4
6
8
10
Export Value ($Bil)
Actual
Aug 14 Forecast
Aug 15 Projection
Initial FY 2015 Projection: $4.1 Billion
Revised FY 2014 Forecast: $33.4 Billion $1.2 Billion
Export Outlook for Dairy, Livestock, and Poultry
2015Key Developments Beef higher as elevated prices outweigh lower shipments on tight supplies Dairy lower on increased global competitionPork lower on decreased prices and supplies Poultry lower on reduced broiler meat shipments
Wild Cards PED impact Ongoing SPS trade issues
2014Key Developments Gains in most categories, especially dairy '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13
f'14f
15f
9
14
19
24
29
34
Export Value ($Bil)
Actual
August 14 Forecast
August 15 Projection
Initial FY 2015 Projection: $32.9 Billion
Revised FY 2014 Forecast: $34.1 Billion Unchanged
Export Outlook for Horticulture Products
2015Key Developments Long-term growth trend continues Strong exports to Canada, Europe and ChinaTree nut exports higher due to strong demand in China and Europe for almonds, pistachios and walnuts
Wild Cards China’s continued growth, particularly for tree nuts, fresh fruit and wine
'03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14f
'15f
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Export Value ($Bil)
Actual
August 14 Forecast
August 15 Projection
Initial FY 2015 Projection: $37.0 Billion