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Impacts on the agricultural sector of moving towards a ‘healthy diet’. Gaelle Gouarin OECD Trade and Agriculture. Food chain network meeting Mobilizing the food chain for health OECD, PARIS, October 25-26 2012. Impacts of moving towards a ‘healthy diet’. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Gaelle Gouarin OECD Trade and Agriculture
Food chain network meeting Mobilizing the food chain for health
OECD, PARIS, October 25-26 2012
Impacts on the agricultural sector of moving towards a
‘healthy diet’
OECD Trade & Agriculture 2
Impacts of moving towards a ‘healthy diet’
• Measure impact on main agricultural sector aggregates of :
– Scenario 1 : Reduction in total fat consumption following a comprehensive prevention strategy.
– Scenario 2 : WHO dietary guideline target of saturated fat consumption at 10% or less of total calories
• Method: Simulations using the Aglink-Cosimo Model
OECD Trade & Agriculture 3
What is the AGLINK - COSIMO model?
• A partial equilibrium model covering the main agricultural markets (cereals, oilseeds, sugar, meats and dairy commodities), biofuels and fish & seafood
• A recursive-dynamic model (i.e. the market equilibrium in one year includes lagged variables)
• A Policy Specific Model: includes explicitly policy measures, such as import tariffs, tariff rate quotas, subsidies, etc.
OECD Trade & Agriculture 4
AGLINK
endogenous
European Union (15)
Mexico
Japan
European Union (12)
Canada
Australia
USANew ZealandKorea
Argentina Brazil RussiaChina
CHENOR
exogenous
30 countries18 regional aggregates
COSIMO
Aglink-Cosimo country coverage
OECD Trade & Agriculture 5
Decrease in fat consumption following the implementation of a comprehensive prevention strategy
• Reduction in total fat consumption following a comprehensive prevention strategy.
OECD Trade & Agriculture 6
Implementation of a comprehensive prevention strategy : % decrease required in fat consumption
COUNTRIES % decrease on average (2012-2021)
Argentina -0.9
Australia -1.4
Brazil -0.9
Canada -1.2
Chile -0.9
China -0.8
European Union -1.1
India -0.7
Japan -0.8
Korea -0.8
Mexico -1.4
New Zealand -1.4
Russian Federation -0.8
United States -1.4
OECD Trade & Agriculture 7
Scenario 1 results : Impacts on world prices of a comprehensive prevention strategy
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
Atlantic beef world price % difference
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
Cheese world price% difference
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
-3
-2
-1
0
Vegetable oil world price% difference
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
-3
-2
-1
0
Coarse grains world price% difference
OECD Trade & Agriculture 8
Moving to WHO guidelines for saturated fats ( 10% of total calories)
• Calculate saturated fat consumption in grams for each country(based on FBS-FAO), aglink database and secretariat estimates
• Total Calories taken from national sources and assumptions applied over similar countries
• Select those countries whose consumption of saturated fat >=10 % of total calories
OECD Trade & Agriculture 9
Saturated fats as a share of total calories consumed
CHN MEX ARG RUS BRA USA AUS EU NZL0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
Share of saturated fat in caloric intake
OECD Trade & Agriculture 10
SATURATED FAT REDUCTION needed to meet WHO guidelines
EU NZL AUS USA BRA RUS ARG MEX CHN
-40
-35
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
Reductions to meet 10% calorie intake
OECD Trade & Agriculture 11
Scenario2 results : saturated fat target 10% of total calories
baseline scenario 10% baseline scenario 10 %Consumption Production
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
Bovine consumption and production (kt)
USA
BRA
E27
CHN
OECD Trade & Agriculture 12
Scenario2 results : saturated fat target 10% of total calories
baseline scenario 10% baseline scenario 10 %export import
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
Bovine exports and imports
USA
BRA
E27
CHN
OECD Trade & Agriculture 13
Scenario 2 results : saturated fat target 10% of total calories
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 20210
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
Pacific beef and veal price (USD/t)
baseline
scenario
OECD Trade & Agriculture 14
Scenario results : saturated fat target 10% of total calories
baseline scenario 10% baseline scenario 10 %Consumption Production
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
Cheese Consumption and production
USA
BRA
E27
CHN
OECD Trade & Agriculture 15
Scenario2 results : saturated fat target 10% of total calories
baseline scenario 10% baseline scenario 10 %Exports Imports
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
Cheese exports and imports (kt)
USA
BRA
E27
CHN
OECD Trade & Agriculture 16
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 20210
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
Cheese world price USD/t
baseline
scenario
OECD Trade & Agriculture 17
Scenario 2 results : saturated fat target 10% of total calories
baseline scenario 10% baseline scenario 10 %Consumption Production
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
Vegetable oil consumption and production
USA
BRA
E27
CHN
OECD Trade & Agriculture 18
Scenario2 results : saturated fat target 10% of total calories
baseline scenario 10% baseline scenario 10 %exports imports
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
Vegetable oil exports and imports
USA
BRA
E27
CHN
OECD Trade & Agriculture 19
Scenario 2 results : saturated fat target 10% of total calories
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021950
1000
1050
1100
1150
1200
1250
Vegetable oil world price
baseline
scenario
OECD Trade & Agriculture 20
Scenario 2 results : saturated fat target 10% of total calories
baseline scenario 10% baseline scenario 10 %consumption production
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
350000
400000
450000
Coarse grains consumption and production (kt)
USABRAE27CHN
OECD Trade & Agriculture 21
Scenario 2 results : saturated fat target 10% of total calories
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021200
210
220
230
240
250
260
Coarse grains world price USD/t
baselinescenario
