Ganesh Nana Presentation to Maori Economic Summit 050511

8/2/2019 Ganesh Nana Presentation to Maori Economic Summit 050511

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Mori Economy, Science and Innovation presentation to Mori Economic Summit 030511slide 1

Mori Economy,Science and Innovation potential opportunity and value

presentation to Mori Economic Summit05 May 2011

Dr Ganesh NanaChief Economist


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Headline

The opportunityby 2060

$12bn extra pa in GDP from Mori economy

150,000 additional jobs pa in NZ economy

* over 50,000 in professions and 30,000 in skilled trades

The risk

doing nothing could see by 2060

35,000 less jobs pa in NZ economy

NB: all values expressed in terms of 2010 $s, with all figures representing the change on a baseline businessas usual projection of the New Zealand economy


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Project brief

Why this?

scienceeffort

Morieconomy

innovation


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Project brief

Why not this?

Mori

economy

innovation

scienceeffort

And, if so,

can wequantifypotentialbenefits?


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Issues, challenges

information

communication

attitudes to risk

governance and management structures

capability and capacity


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Asset base of 2010 Mori economy

collectively-owned assets

and businesses of self-employed and

individual employers

using more robust method and wider

coverage than earlier estimates


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Asset base of 2010 Mori economy

total = $36.9bn

* trusts & incorporations = $4.0bn

* other Mori entities = $6.7bn

* businesses of self-employed Mori = $5.4bn

* businesses of Mori employers = $20.8bn


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Asset base of 2010 Mori economyby industry

0 3 6 9 12

Agric, Forestry, Fishing

Mining

Manufacturing

Elect, gas & water

Construction

Wholesale trade

Retail trade

Accommodation

Transport

Communications

Finance services

Property services

Education

Other services $bn


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Growth in asset base 2006 to 2010

from $16.4bn in to $36.9bn

increase of $20.5bn due to:

*wider coverage and more robustassumptions: $11.6bn

*price inflation: $3.1bn

* real growth: $5.7bn = real growth of 18%, or 4.3%pa


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Comparability with 2006 estimateOr, accounting for 2006-10 growth

0

10

20

30

40

asset base of 2010 Mori economy

$bn

real growth from2006-2010

capital goods price

inflation from 2006-2010

wider coverageand more robustassumptions

2006 previousbase estimate


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Different dimensions of Mori economy

INCOME GDP EXPENDITURE GDP

PRODUCTION GDP

Morienterprises

5.9%

otherenterprises

94.1%

Mori8.1%

other91.9%

Mori12.6%

other

87.4%

$10.3bn out of

NZ total of $187bn


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The 2010 workforce

EmployersSelf-

employedEmployees

Mori 5,690 12,920 200,298

Non-Mori 109,140 202,360 1,388,490

Mori as % of total 4.9% 6.0% 12.6%


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The future Mori economyScenarios tested

Production focused productivityimprovements in all sectors of Mori economy

Export focused increase in export volumesand sales due to innovation of sales/marketingof goods and services from Mori economy

RS&T investment increased but obstaclesto application and commercialisation remain

Do-nothing productivity of asset baseerodes as maintenance efforts lapse


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-3

0

3

6

9

12

15

2021 2031 2041 2051 2061

2010 $bn Increased productivity Improved export effort

Investment focus Doing nothing

Scenario comparisonchange in Mori GDP compared to baseline

In 2061 cf baseline

+21% Mori GDP

+22% Mori GDP

+1% Mori GDP

-5% Mori GDP


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-50

0

50

100

150

200

2021 2031 2041 2051 2061

000s

Increased p roductivity Improved export effort

Investment focus Doing nothing

Potential benefits and opportunity costsdifference in JOBS compared to baseline


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Key findings

compelling evidence of step change opportunity gain to NZ, as well as to Mori economy

requires more than just investment

communication and behaviour change necessary

need genuine relationship between scientists, innovators

and Mori entrepreneurs

collaboration and leadership potentially central

long-term development of skills and capabilities ofworkforce critical


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So, what now?

agree to tackle challenges to buildgenuine two-way relationships

lead and foster behaviour and mindset

change backed up by informedanalysis

commit to long term

note do nothing option is too risky


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Last words

asset base measure is only part of story

use ofasset base is critical

increasing performance of, and income from,

Mori economy is necessary to ensure* protection of asset

* improved opportunities, jobs and incomes for Mori(and non-Mori)

* development and kaitiakitanga of cultural, social,community and environmental assets and values ofMori and all New Zealanders

Documents

Ganesh Nana Presentation to Maori Economic Summit 050511