Gansu Natural Energy Research Institute UNIDO International Solar Energy Center for Technology Promotion & Transfer The Strategic Position of Solar and

Gansu Natural Energy Research InstituteUNIDO International Solar Energy Center for Technology Promotion & Transfer

The Strategic Position of Solar and Wind Energy in

Energy Supply System in China

Prof. XI Wenhua ＊ LI Shimin

Director-General, UNIDO International Solar Energy Center

Director-General, Gansu Natural Energy Research Institute

Email: [email protected] [email protected] [email protected]

Tel: +86-13909441942 Fax: +86 931 8611444

Web: www.unido-isec.org

* LI Shimin, Prof. & Assistant Director-General of GNERI; Chief of Technology Consultation & Training Department of UNIDO-ISEC

Problems of Use of Alternative Energy Sources in TurkmenistanFeb. 24 – 25, 2010


Contents

The current international developing situation of the renewable energy What the booming development of solar & wind energy implies. The four reasons for developing the solar & wind energy in China The obstacles facing the development of solar & wind energy in China The advantageous conditions for China to develop solar & wind energy

with large scale. The general goal for China to develop renewable energy in 2020 The Strategic position of solar & wind energy in China The urgent work for the realization of the strategic goal

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Current International Situation of the Renewable Energy

2002

The global consumption of RE is about 3 billion tons of standard coal.

85% conventional renewable energy

15% new developed renewable energy

It is accounting for 1/3 of the total global energy consumption. Solar & wind energy are in the dominant position.

By March of 2003

Global wind power installation capacity : over 40 GW

the increase speed: 30 - 40% / year Photovoltaic production capacity: 600MW

Installed PV power capacity : nearly 4000 MW. Total installed Solar water heater in the world: about 120 million m2

It is about 20 million tons of standard coal.

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What the Booming Development of Solar & Wind Energy Implies

Advantage : inexhaustible

Solar energy: about 2700 billion tons of conventional coal per year.

almost 2000 times of the current global energy consumption

Wind energy: about 53,000 TWh.

it is about two times of the current global electricity generation.

or three times of the total hydroelectric resources.

Become the important choice in the sustainable development of all countries

Latent with great economic benefit.

The necessity of technique development and market.

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Solar & Wind Energy become an Important Choice of Sustainable Development for most of the Countries

Grant great support for the development of RE by legislation and policies

Enact FEED-IN LAW (FIL) in Germany & Spain Non Fossil Fuel Obligation in Britain Some states in U.S.A and Austria implement RPS

Important plans for the future development such as in EU: RE is the key of three strategic goals which are to increase the

energy competitive strength, to ensure the supplement and to protect the environment. The consumption will account for 12% of the total energy consumption in 2010. Wind energy: 60 GW in 2010 & 150GW in 2020 ( including offshore wind energy generation 50GW )

Solar collectors installation: 65 million m2 in the world, EU will installed more than ¼ of that.

PV power installation: 3GWp

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Japan New Sunshine Plan in 1993. it is continue with: Sunshine Plan (1974) Moon Plan (1978) The Earth Environment Technique Development Plan (1989) PV Roof Plan (1997)Plans to install PV power 7600MWp up to 2010.

USA: The green electric power developing plan

Focus on the wind, PV & biomass up to2020, Total PV installed capacity: 36GW , Accounting for

15% of the increasing volume of the generation capacity in the US.

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Solar & Wind Energy as an Important Choice of Sustainable Development


Solar & Wind Energy Latent with Enormous Economic Benefit

Play increasingly important role in the national economy The global wind market value in 2002 is 7 billion euro, and the

electricity supply can meet the demand of 40 million people. By 2020, the global draught fan will amount to 1200 GW with

annual turnover of 67 billion euro The global PV power will increase to 70 GWp in 2020 from the

present 3000 MW, which will meet 30% of African and 10% of OECD countries’ electricity demand.

USA is further strengthening the development of PV technique. Produce half amount of the global solar PV cells by 2020. Solar PV market of the whole world might be over 1.4 billion m2 by

2020

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EU plans to install solar water heater covering 190 million m2, equivalent to 37 GW of electric power and 93 TWh of electricity amount.

Provide more job opportunities EU estimates that it can totally provide 1.54-1.67 million jobs

when the wind power generates 40 GW, PV generates 3 GW and solar collector provides 100 Mm2 in Europe.

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Solar & Wind Energy Latent with Enormous Economic Benefit


Japan: the volume of PV products has reached over 50% amount of the global.

UK, Holland, Japan and US: monopolized the global PV market with total export volume reaching over 80% of the total trading volume

Countries like Denmark, Germany, Spain and US: outstanding in the wind turbine producing technique Denmark produced about 60% wind turbine in the world market

in 1999 and mainly for exporting.

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Developing Solar & Wind Energy is the Necessity for the Sake of Technique and Market.


I. The energy supply system in China is lacking the sustainability

The threat of energy drain might arrive sooner Large population, low energy using technique & efficiency, high

energy consumption Per capita hold of resources is only ½ of that in the world Per capita hold of oil and natural gas is only 17.1% and 13.2% of the

world.

The energy demand and supply gap will be expanding The nationwide demand for TOE is 2.7 billion tons but about 480

million tons of standard coal will be lacking In 2050 about 4 billion tons of standard coal will be needed but

lacking of 1 billion tons of standard coal ,which means lacking 25%.

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Four Reasons for Developing Solar & Wind Energy in China


Overdependence on the coal will worsen the environment 70% of energy need is supplied by coal. About 66% of urban atmospheric particulates and 22% of

atmospheric sulfur dioxide concentration are over the Grade II national standards for air quality.

90% of sulfur dioxide and 70% of smoke and dust are all from the burnt coal

The handling of the coal wastes is still a problem The process of coal exploiting and utilizing has been a harm to

the industrial and agricultural production and ecological environment

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II. The requirement of the special conditions of China

The necessary way to build the well-off countryside Consuming large amount of energy, equaling to that produced by 0.6

billion tons of standard coal every year. About half of the energy is produced by renewable energy utilized by

traditional ways. About 7 million people have no electricity.

The requirement for arranging the surplus labor In Denmark, the manufacturing, installing, maintenance and service of

wind turbine provides 12-15 thousand jobs. Components are sold over the world, according creating 6000 jobs

The requirement for reserving and improving the environment Burning the conventional bio-fuel is still the main approach for obtaining

energy The establishment of the clean and convenient energy utilizing system will

reliably ensure the project of “Returning Farmland to Forest and Grassland”.

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III. Consideration for Energy Supply Security

Dependence on importing is increasing due to the short of oil. China become a net importer of oil since 1993, and in 2001

the import dependence reached 34% The oil import is sharing increasing portion in the total oil

demand. It is predicted to reach 50% by 2020. Solar & wind energy are rich in China and can be converted

to electric power as well as liquid fuel directly or indirectly.

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IV. Reduce the distance between China and other countries and taking a favorable position in the future development

The current situation in China： Lags behind the European countries and US in Solar & wind

technique and markets Solar & wind technique need more science and technology to

promote and more time to develop in technique and market promotion.

The experience of developing renewable energy shows that: the earlier it is developed, the more benefit will get.

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The Problem Facing in China on the Development of Solar & Wind Energy

CostThe producing cost of solar & wind energy is far higher than that of fossil fuel based on the same techniques. Example

Market Small scale Undetermined Lacking corresponding developing

system

Policy Some policies have been enacted in promoting solar & wind energy

development in the past decade. Some policies become invalid owing to the reforming of the system,

restructuring of the administration departments.

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Way of Power Generation Coal-fired Small Hydropower Biomass Power Wind Power Solar Photovoltaic

Cost 1 1.2 1.5 1.7-2.5 8-12


The Advantageous Conditions for China to Develop Solar & Wind Energy in Large Scale.

Huge potential market The need to further promote national economy and build a prosperous society in an all-

around way poses the new requirement for energy supply. Rich resources in China

Small hydro-electric power potentially develop capacity is about 75 million KW. It only developed less than 35%.

The annual solar energy amount on the land equals to 2400 billion tons of standard coal. 1% of the land area with 20% of efficiency, it will annually produced the energy as 4.8 billion tons of standard coal. The total reserve of wind energy at height of 10 m is 3.2 billion KW, about 253 million KW that can be exploited. Plus offshore wind energy, there are 1 billion KW of wind energy can be developed.

Rich biomass resources provide energy equivalent to that produced by 0.3 billion and 0.13 billion tons of standard coal respectively.

The industry development begins to take shape New progress has been made in technique development

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The General Goal for China to Develop Renewable Energy by 2020

100 million KW of renewable energy generating installation capacity (by 2020)

Small hydro-electric power: 60-70 million KW The Small hydro-electric power in China has been increased at the rate of

1-1.5 million KW in recent years with total capacity having reached 28.4 million KW by the end of 2002

Increasing capacity of 2 million KW annually in the following 17 years

Wind power generates 20 million KW of electricity It would be possible to increase the wind electricity at the rate of 30% by

the increasing of national strength, requirement for economic growth and the improved policy environment

Biomass power generates 10 million KW of electricity The garbage power generation capacity will increase to over 2 million KW

by 2020 from the present 150 thousand KW. If every county can set up 5 MW straw power generating system, 2100

counties in China would total install 10.5 million KW.1717


Strategic Position of Solar & Wind Energy in China

The compensate for energy before 2020 Solar power provides the necessary power for heating and hot

water in daily life and industries for city and rural areas, and also provides electricity power for lighting and communications in electricity-lacking areas.

Wind power occupies 2% of total installed capacity and PV power 1%.

Become main resources by 2050 Solar energy will generate 10% of the total amount of electricity Wind energy will generate 10% of the total amount of electricity

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Basic Guideline and Principles

Basic guideline To satisfy the energy demand in the building of prosperous society To establish the sustainable and secure energy supply system To carry out the strategy of sustainable development

Principles of developing strategy Government guidance Government guide Market allocation High quality and efficiency Increasing the proportion

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The Urgent Work for Realizing the Strategic Goal

Strengthening the legislation by enacting RE promotion laws It is of significance and necessity to enact and make relevant laws and

policies in view of insufficient policies and no specific laws for solar & wind energy currently.

Strengthening the establishing and innovating of the policy system Accelerate the experiment and demonstration work of wind power

concession so as to promote nationwide Enhance the investing and financing environment and preparing fully

the designing and declaring work of PBF implementation plan Speed up the police of mandatory market share (MMS) research and

demonstration work of solar & wind energy MMS in order that MMS suitable for China’s conditions can be made in due time.

2020


The Urgent Work for Realizing the Strategic Goal

Increasing the input to strength the key techniques to achieve rapid development

General survey and assessment of solar & wind resources R &D of the key techniques of solar & wind energy and its industrialization Development the production line of solar and wind industries. Other experiment and demonstration projects and important projects including

the project of proving electricity for 20 million people without electricity and the plan of 30 million KW wind energy.

Updating the viewpoint on solar & wind energy Chinese government should place solar & wind energy in a strategic

perspective by including it in the government energy plan and financial budget.

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Thank you!

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Gansu Natural Energy Research Institute UNIDO International Solar Energy Center for Technology Promotion & Transfer The Strategic Position of Solar and