Objective Communication, Measurement, and Cost

EstimationNecessary Ingredients for Project

Success and Affordability

Garry Roedler, ESEP

LM Fellow

INCOSE Founder

IEEE Golden Core Member

Note: This presentation reflects the positions of the presenter and is being given from the perspective of the industry association roles held by the presenter. It does not necessarily reflect the positions held by any specific organization or his employer.

Communication and Program PerformanceStatistics on program failures conclude: Most IT projects are failing.

The predominant reason: Communication breakdown.

The Standish Group CHAOS report

Reasons for project failure:1.Expectation mismatch amongst stakeholders.2.Improper and unclear communication with

stakeholders. Global Project Management – Vote from LinkedInPoor communication is the reason most IT projects fail.

Unrealistic deadlines is another leading cause.Web Poll – Computing Technology Industry Assoc. – 1000 respondents

Communication consistently cited as a top reason for project failure paired with expectations and estimates

Elements of Objective CommunicationLooks for the truth, uses hard data, tries to explain as well as

predict (deterministic)Avoids potential of multiple interpretations or misinterpretation Unambiguous

Clarity of meaning; single interpretation Common vocabulary – words can have multiple meanings

Void of subjectivity Avoids personal bias; keeps out personal values (“value-free”) “Lack of judgment”

Factual Quantitative, over qualitative Focus on cause and effect Predictive – looks for predictability Based on universal laws Validates theory with objective methods; e.g., experiments and

surveys Applies objective research with precise measurement and data

analysisDoes this look like objective communication?http://dilbert.com/dyn/str_strip/000000000/00000000/0000000/000000/00000/0000/900/929/929.strip.zoom.gif

Supports Objective Discussion for Affordability & Other Objectives

Obstacles for Objective CommunicationPsychological factors

E.g., ego, optimism/pessimism, past influences Sociological factors

E.g., culture, peer pressure, social normsStake in the gameLack of information Lack of common experienceLack of common vocabulary

Why Objective Communication is Important in Engineering

Agreement between supplier and acquirer Understanding the needs/requirements Ensuring joint understanding

Team understanding of requirementsInsight to manage risks or make decisions

Not a spectator sport; participative Understanding of decision criteria Using predictive insight from leading indicators

and risk assessmentsIncludes confidence in the information (i.e.,

uncertainty)Progress and status

Example of Ambiguity

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kAG39jKi0lI

Semantic AmbiguityThe English language can be ambiguous … some sample newspaper headlines:

• “Lack Of Brains Hinders Research”• “Kids Make Nutritious Snacks”• “Queen Mary Having Bottom Scraped”• “Miners Refuse to Work after Death”• “Police Begin Campaign To Run Down

Jaywalkers”• “Red Tape Holds Up New Bridge”• “Juvenile Court To Try Shooting Defendant”• “Panda Mating Fails; Veterinarian Takes

Over”• “Astronaut Takes Blame For Gas In

Spacecraft”• “Grandmother Of Eight Makes Hole In One”• “Enraged Cow Injures Farmer With Ax”• “NJ Judge to Rule on Nude Beach”

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Syntactic Ambiguity

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Punctuation can cause very different meanings!

Example of SubjectivitySubjective language includes phrases such as:

Easy-to-use, user-friendlyClose quicklyHigh-speed, medium-sized, low-frequency (high,

medium, low, large, small, …)Best practicesMinimize, maximize, optimize

Subjective terms:Create problems in verification Often lead to Affordability issues

The use of these adjectives allows for multiple interpretations

Example of Potential Numerical Misinterpretation

Option A Option B Option C935

940

945

950

955

960

965

970

Series1

Option A Option B Option C0

100200300400500600700800900

1000

Series1

Image from The World is Flat: http://salyee.wordpress.com/2010/11/06/week-11-infographics/ 10/14/12

Drug company states that a competing drug increases risk of death by 100%.

Using Objective Information to Improve Program Decisions

Aids programs by providing true understanding and insightProvides the facts and quantitative information Focus on cause and effectAllows predictions/estimations – built on historical

data, empirical relationships, accepted principles, …Validated through experiments, surveys, and

calibrationCannot eliminate all subjective, ambiguous

informationAssumptionsDifferences from historical informationEmerging informationHumans are involved

How this Relates to Measurement & Cost/Schedule Estimating

Measurement is at the root of objectivityBasis of factual information Basis of models and estimation

Realize all information is not precise – account by using ranges and distributions, where applicable

Necessary for calibration to improve applicabilityCost/schedule estimation provides a model of a

class of programsBasis of predictions using key variables (drivers) Developed from objective research (i.e., precise

measurement and data analysis)Provides a point of departure from what is known

But … requires verification and validationDoes this look like your program?http://dilbert.com/dyn/str_strip/000000000/00000000/0000000/000000/00000/6000/300/6379/6379.strip.zoom.gif

Where We Are NowLeading Indicators

SE Leading Indicators Guide

System Devel. Perf. Measurement

Technical Measurement

Cost Estimation

COCOMO®

…

Other “COCONuts” and Vendor Models for SW and SE

Standardization & Harmonization

MeasurementProcess Std

Life Cycle Process Stds – 15288, 12207

SEVOCAB

Applications / Other Guidance

PSM CMMI

Where We Are Now

Where We Are Now

Where We Are Now

Where We Are Now

Where We Still Need To GoCost EstimationLeading Indicators

Standardization & Harmonization Applications / Other Guidance

Extensive piloting and usage of SELI and SDPM

Linkage of SELI to results of SE Effectiveness Survey and Risk Models

Leading Indicators for SW

Enhance ability to support trades Account for more of the key

decisions (e.g., Product Lines) Better account for uncertainty

Integrated cost estimation Full system cost estimation

Full life cycle cost estimation

Complete harmonization of System and SW

Continue to migrate to common vocabulary

Revision of PSM guidance to state of standard

Extend PSM for emerging information needs

Determine measures and cost estimation that best applies through life cycle stages and decisions

QUESTIONS?Microsoft Clip Art Image 2007