Gartner: Top Predictions for IT Organizations 2012 and Beyond

A recent Gartner Predicts 2012 special report addresses the continuing trend in IT toward the reduction of control IT hasover the forces that affect it. As users take more control of the devices they will use, business managers are taking morecontrol of the budgets IT organizations have watched shift over the past few years. Moving forward, IT departments willfind that they must coordinate activities in a much wider scope than they once controlled.

We recently reported that there has been a fair amount of discussion over the last year about the rise of shadowIT, where end users subscribe to cloud and software as a Services as an IT department end-run around. Theyneed it and want it now, and do not wish to wait for the typical IT department to run interference by "putting it on their list"and eventually getting around to it. It is instant cloud gratification as it has come to known, the end user is empowered totake action without the consent or approval of the IT departmentIn essence, the IT budgets and responsibilities are moving out of the control of IT departments and into the hands ofothers, thanks to the well document trends of consumerization of IT and cloud computing, Gartner says in its vision for2012 and the coming years.That means, to be successful, IT organizations will have to excel at relationship management and be adept atcoordinating more widely distributed activities, according to Daryl Plummer, managing vice president and Gartner fellow.IT departments need to adapt now or be swept aside, Plummer warned.

Here is a list of Gartner's top 11 predictions for 2012:1. Low-cost cloud services will cannibalize up to 15 percent of top outsourcing players'revenue by 2015. Just as low-costairlines disrupted the transportation industry, the projected $1 trillion IT services market is facing further disruption fromindustrialized low-cost IT services (ILCS), which Gartner describes as "an emerging market force that will alter thecommon perceptions of pricing and value of IT services." Vendors will need to invest in and adopt a new cloud-based,industrialized services strategy, the research firm says.

2. The investment bubble will burst for consumer social networks in 2013, and for enterprise social software companiesin 2014.In the consumer social network space, there's a large crop of vendors with overlapping features competing for a finiteaudience. In the enterprise market, small vendors are struggling to grow, consolidation is imminent, and big players suchas Microsoft, IBM, Oracle, Google and VMware are muscling in on the action, Gartner says. "While substantialexcitement will be raised by private firms going public, valuations of smaller independent vendors will diminish asrecognition sets in that the opportunities for market differentiation and fast growth has eroded."3. At least 50 percent of enterprise email users will rely primarily on a browser, tablet or mobile client instead of a desktopclient by 2016.As the options for email clients continue to grow, the need for mobile device management platforms will soar andsuppliers will be pressured to support more collaboration services, including instant messaging, Web conferencing, socialnetworking and shared workspaces, Gartner predicts.4. Mobile application development projects targeting smartphones and tablets will outnumber native PC projects by aratio of 4-to-1 by 2015."Smartphones and tablets represent more than 90 percent of the new net growth in device adoption for the coming fouryears, and increasing application platform capability across all classes of mobile phones is spurring a new frontier ofinnovation, particularly where mobile capabilities can be integrated with location, presence and social information toenhance the usefulness," Gartner says.5. 40 percent of enterprises will make proof of independent security testing a precondition for using any type of cloudservice by 2016.Third-party testers won't be the only way for enterprises to evaluate cloud services for their security capabilities.Inspectors' certifications will become a viable alternative or complement to third-party testing, Gartner says. "This meansthat instead of requesting that a third-party security vendor conduct testing on the enterprise's behalf, the enterprise willbe satisfied by a cloud provider's certificate stating that a reputable third-party security vendor has already tested itsapplications."

6. More than 50 percent of Global 1000 companies will have stored customer-sensitive data in the public cloud by year-end 2016.Under pressure to reduce costs and operate more efficiently, more than 20% of organizations are already selectivelystoring customer-sensitive data in a hybrid cloud environment, Gartner says.7. 35 percent of enterprise IT expenditures for most organizations will be managed outside the IT department's budget by2015.Business managers and individual employees are demanding more control over the IT expenditures related to their jobs."CIOs will see some of their current budget simply reallocated to other areas of the business. In other cases, IT projectswill be redefined as business projects with line-of-business managers in control," Gartner predicts.8. 20% of Asia-sourced finished goods and assemblies consumed in the U.S. will shift to the Americas by 2015.

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Many companies that serve the U.S. market will shift their sources of supply from Asia to the Americas, including LatinAmerica, Canada and the U.S., thanks to political, environmental, economic and supply chain risks, Gartner says."Except in cases where there is a unique manufacturing process or product intellectual property, most products arecandidates to be relocated."9. The financial impact of cybercrime will grow 10 percent per year through 2016, due to the continuing discovery of newvulnerabilitiesGrowth in consumerization and cloud computing will lead to the introduction of new software vulnerabilities and attackmethods by financially motivated hackers, Gartner warns. "The combination of new vulnerabilities and more targetedattacks will lead to continued growth in bottom-line financial impact because of successful cyber attacks."

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10. The prices for 80% of cloud services will include a global energy surcharge by 2015.Some cloud data center operators already include an energy surcharge in their pricing package, and Gartner expects tosee more providers follow suit. Business and IT leaders should be prepared to see it included in future cloud servicecontracts.11. More than 85% of Fortune 500 organizations will fail to effectively exploit big data for competitive advantage through2015.Most organizations are in no shape to handle the technical and management challenges posed by big data, Gartnersays. "Collecting and analyzing the data is not enough -- it must be presented in a timely fashion so that decisions aremade as a direct consequence that have a material impact on the productivity, profitability or efficiency of theorganization." As a result, most won't be able to exploit available data for competitive advantage.Gartner's report, "Gartner's Top Predictions for IT Organizations and Users, 2012 and Beyond: Control Slips Away." maybe accessed here.

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