Gary Lagerloef, PhDScience on Tap, 7 April 20091

Apollo 17

December 1972

Climate Science

in the Space AgeGary Lagerloef

Oceanographer & Climate Scientist

Earth & Space Research

AZA, 16 September 2009Portland, OR

Gary Lagerloef, PhDScience on Tap, 7 April 20092

NASA Earth Observatories

Gary Lagerloef, PhDScience on Tap, 7 April 2009Climate Science in the

Space Age3

What is Measured by SatellitesWhat is Measured by Satellites

• Atmosphere– Temperature– Tropical Storms– Ozone– Humidity– Rainfall– Cloud structure– Evaporation– Aerosols– Carbon Dioxide– Carbon Monoxide– Energy balance

• This is not a complete list

• Atmosphere– Temperature– Tropical Storms– Ozone– Humidity– Rainfall– Cloud structure– Evaporation– Aerosols– Carbon Dioxide– Carbon Monoxide– Energy balance

• This is not a complete list

• Ocean– Sea level– Surface winds– Surface currents– Surface temperature– Ocean Salinity (coming

soon)– Ocean color (biology)

• Cryosphere– Sea ice cover– Ice sheet mass– Ice sheet elevation

• Ocean– Sea level– Surface winds– Surface currents– Surface temperature– Ocean Salinity (coming

soon)– Ocean color (biology)

• Cryosphere– Sea ice cover– Ice sheet mass– Ice sheet elevation

Gary Lagerloef, PhDScience on Tap, 7 April 2009Climate Science in the

Space Age4

Mapping Sea Level with SatellitesMapping Sea Level with Satellites

Sea water expands as it warms.

Very accurate satellite radar altimeters can measure changes in sea level with an accuracy of about 2 cm (less than an inch) from 800 miles high.

Jason-1

Gary Lagerloef, PhDScience on Tap, 7 April 2009Climate Science in the

Space Age5

Measuring Ocean Winds from Space

Measuring Ocean Winds from Space

Tropical Storm Emilia, July 26, 2006

Gary Lagerloef, PhDScience on Tap, 7 April 2009Climate Science in the

Space Age6

Ocean Currents from Satellite DataOcean Currents from Satellite Data

www.oscar.noaa.gov

Gary Lagerloef, PhDScience on Tap, 7 April 2009Climate Science in the

Space Age7

Apollo 17

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Fourth Assessment (2007)

The Warming of Earth’s ClimateThe Warming of Earth’s Climate

Temperature rise during the past 25 years is about 0.18ºC (0.32º F) per decade.

This is about 4X faster than the past 150 years

Temperature rise during the past 25 years is about 0.18ºC (0.32º F) per decade.

This is about 4X faster than the past 150 years

Most of the satellite capability has developed during the past few decades when we also observed the most rapid increase in global warming

Gary Lagerloef, PhDScience on Tap, 7 April 2009Climate Science in the

Space Age8

Satellite Radar Altimeter Global Average Sea Level

Rise

Satellite Radar Altimeter Global Average Sea Level

Rise

About half the sea level rise is due to expansion as the ocean warms, and the other half is water added to the ocean from melting land ice.

About half the sea level rise is due to expansion as the ocean warms, and the other half is water added to the ocean from melting land ice.

Sea level is presently rising at about 1 foot (33 cm) per century.

This is about twice the 20th Century average

Sea level is presently rising at about 1 foot (33 cm) per century.

This is about twice the 20th Century average

Gary Lagerloef, PhDScience on Tap, 7 April 2009Climate Science in the

Space Age9

Mapping Sea Level with SatellitesMapping Sea Level with Satellites

This map shows the time average rate of sea level change from 1993 through 2008 (15 years).

Jason-1

• The patterns reflect differential rates of ocean heating and cooling.

• Cooling has occurred in the eastern North Pacific (PDO pattern).

• Warming has been concentrated in western tropical Pacific.

• Most of the ocean area is rising at about the global average rate (pale green color).

½ inch/year-½ inch/year

Global Average

Gary Lagerloef, PhDScience on Tap, 7 April 200910

GRACE can measure the change in mass at the Earth’s surface that is equivalent to a layer of water just 1 cm thick spread over an area about the size of the State of Washington (i.e. about 450 km square)

Climate Science in the Space Age

Gary Lagerloef, PhDScience on Tap, 7 April 2009Climate Science in the

Space Age11

Trend, Apr 02-Jun07: -238 km3/yrGreenland Mass Variation From GRACE

Trend Apr 2002-Sep 2008: -242+/-36 km3/yr (= 0.6 mm/yr sea level rise)

Isabella Velicogna, NASA/JPL, 2009

GRACE gravity is used to monitor the change of ice mass (volume) of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets.

Most of the change in Greenland is in the southern half.

Vol

ume

Km

3

Gary Lagerloef, PhDScience on Tap, 7 April 2009Climate Science in the

Space Age

Vol

ume

Km

3

12

Antarctica Ice mass Change

---- Apr ‘02-Sep ‘07: -133 +/-80 km3/yr

-133 +/-80 km3/yr = 0.4 mm/yr sea level rise

Velicogna, 2008

Most of the Antarctic ice loss is from West Antarctica

The ice mass loss from Greenland and Antarctica together account for one third of the total observed sea level rise.

Trend Apr 2002-Sep 2008:

---- Apr ‘02-Sep 08: -174 +/-80 km3/yr ~ 0.5 mm/yr sea level

rise

Isabella Velicogna, NASA/JPL, 2009

Gary Lagerloef, PhDScience on Tap, 7 April 2009Climate Science in the

Space Age13

2007 2005

Arctic Sea Ice Cover is ShrinkingArctic Sea Ice Cover is Shrinking

Satellite data shows about 15% reduction since 1978, until a record minimum in 2005

Satellite data shows about 15% reduction since 1978, until a record minimum in 2005

Rapid Arctic Sea Ice melting. Satellite data now indicate 2007 minimum ice area was >20% below the previous low in 2005

Rapid Arctic Sea Ice melting. Satellite data now indicate 2007 minimum ice area was >20% below the previous low in 2005

Gary Lagerloef, PhDScience on Tap, 7 April 2009Climate Science in the

Space Age14

Ice Loss in 2008 was Similar to 2007

Ice Loss in 2008 was Similar to 2007

Gary Lagerloef, PhDScience on Tap, 7 April 2009Climate Science in the

Space Age15

Arctic Sea Ice Video in 2008Arctic Sea Ice Video in 2008

Gary Lagerloef, PhDScience on Tap, 7 April 2009Climate Science in the

Space Age16

Understanding the Interactions Between the Ocean Circulation, Global Water Cycle and Climate by Measuring Sea Surface Salinity

Ocean Salinity; the Next Challenge

Ocean Salinity; the Next Challenge

WOA 2001 NOAA/NODC

Global salinity patterns are linked to rainfall and evaporation

Salinity affects seawater density, which in turn governs ocean circulation and climate

The higher salinity of the Atlantic sustains the oceanic deep overturning circulation

Salinity variations are driven by precipitation, evaporation, runoff and ice freezing and melting

Gary Lagerloef, PhDScience on Tap, 7 April 200917

Launch DateMay 2010

Climate Science in the Space Age