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Gas Emissions and the Effects on Global Climate Change, Ozone Depletion and Air Pollution
Robert T. WatsonChief Scientist & Director, ESSD. World Bank
andChair, IPCC
November 30, 2000 - 1:00 p.m. - MC2-850
LCR Team
• alleviate poverty for the 1.3 billion people who live on less than $1 per day and the 3 billion people who live on less than $2 per day
• provide adequate food, especially for the 800 million people who are malnourished today, thus requiring food production to double in the next 35 years
• provide clean water for the 1.3 billion people who live without clean water and provide sanitation for the 2 billion people who live without sanitation
• provide energy for the 2 billion people who live without electricity
• improve a healthy environment for the 1.4 billion people who are exposed to dangerous levels of outdoor pollution and the even larger number exposed to dangerous levels of indoor air pollution
• provide safe shelter for those that live in areas susceptible to civil strife due to environmental degradation and those vulnerable to natural disasters
The Challenge of Sustainable Development
State of the Environment
• Air quality is unacceptable in many developing country mega cities, resulting in respiratory illnesses and premature death
• Acid deposition remains a problem in many developing countries, adversely affecting ecological systems
• The Earth’s climate is changing due to human activities, threatening socio-economic sectors, ecological systems and human health
• Stratospheric ozone depletion, which leads to increased UV-B and adverse health affects, has peaked, but recovery will take at least 50 years
• Biological diversity at the genetic, species and ecosystem level is being lost at an unprecedented rate, threatening critical ecosystem goods and services
Linkages Among Food Production andGlobal Environmental Issues
2
Linkages Among Environmental Issues
Air Quality
Sulfate Aerosols
Poverty is Multi-Dimensional
Opportunity
Capability
Security
Empowerment
Dimensions of Poverty
Income and Consumption
Health
Education
Vulnerability
Participation in Decision-making
Examples of Determinants
Air quality
Natural Resource Base
Ecological fragility
Natural shocks
Access to markets
Access to water and toilets
Environmental Links
Environmental governance
Environmental awareness
Underlying Causes of Change• Increased demand for resources, e.g., biological and energy,
as a result of economic growth and population growth• Subsidies that lead to inefficient use of resources (e.g., water)• Failure to internalize environmental extranalities into the
market (e.g., health care costs into the price of coal)• Failure of economic markets to recognize the true value of
natural resources (e.g., global goods and services)• Failure to appropriate the global values of natural resources
to the local level• Institutional and government failures to regulate or
implement the regulations of the use of biological resources and energy (e.g., collapse of fisheries around the world)
• Inappropriate use of technologies (e.g., fossil energy)• Failure of people to consider the long-term consequences of
their actions (change in human values)
Perverse Subsidies
Annual Subsidies Perverse Subsidies
US$ billion US$ billion
Agricultural 575 460
Fossil fuels 145 110
Road transportation 917 639
Water 233 219
Fisheries 22 22
Forestry 6 6
Totals 1,898 1,456
Source: Myers, 1997
Categories of Economic Values Attributed to Environmental Assets
. Food
. Biomass
. Recreation
. Health
Output that canbe consumed
directly
Direct UseValues
. Ecologicalfunctions
. Flood control
. Storm protection.
Functionalbenefits
Indirect UseValues
. Biodiversity. Converved habitats
Future directand indirectuse values
OptionsValues
Use Values
. Habitats
. Endangered species
Value fromknowledge of
continued existence
ExistenceValues
Other Non-UseValues
Intrinsic Value
Non-Use Values
Total Economic Value
Decreasing “tangibility” of value to individuals
Atmospheric Ozone
Ozone Science, Assessments and PolicyHow Have They Interacted?
Effect of the International Agreements onOzone-Depleting Stratospheric Chlorine/Bromine
TOMS and Ground-based Zonal Trends
1/79 to 12/97
Ch
ang
e in
tem
per
atu
re (
°C)
1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
–0.2
Global Temperature ObservationsAnnual averages plus long-term trends, to July 1999
The Met.Office Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research
Precipitation Trends (%) per Decade (1900-1994)
Green • = increasing / Brown • = decreasing
Concentration of Carbon Dioxide and Methane Have Risen Greatly Since Pre-Industrial Times
Carbon dioxide: 33% rise Methane: 100% rise
The MetOffice Hadley Center for Climate Prediction and Research
Glo
bal
-mea
n r
adia
tive
fo
rcin
g (
Wm
)
0
-1
-2
1
2
3
Confidence level
High Low Low Low Very
low
Very
low
Very
low
Very
low
Solar
Troposphericaerosols - direct effect
Stratosphericozone
Troposphericozone
Sulphate
Fossilfuelsoot
Halocarbons
Biomassburning
Tropospheric aerosols- indirect effect
N02O
CH4
CO2
95/868/2.16
Estimates of the globally and annually averaged anthropogenic radiative forcing (in Wm -2) due to changes in concentrations of greenhouse gases and aerosols from pre-industrial times to the present (1992) and to natural changes in solar output from 1850 to the present.
Source: IPCC. Climate Change 1995 - The Science of Climate Change. WGI. 1996.
Radiative Forcing
Schematic Illustration of SRES ScenariosSRES Scenarios
A2
c
T
uu
g
A1
B2Global
Economic
Regional
Environmental
B1
u
Scenarios
• Population (billion) 5.3 7.0 - 15.1
• World GDP (1012 1990US$/yr) 21 235 - 550
• Per capita income ratio: 16.1 1.5 - 4.2developed countries to developing countries
• Final energy intensity (106J/US$)a 16.7 1.4 - 5.9
• Primary energy (1018 J/US$) 351 514 - 2226
• Share of coal in primary energy (%)a 24 1 - 53
• Share of zero carbon in primary energy (%)a 18 28 - 35
1990 2100
a 1990 values include non-commercial energy consistent with IPCC WGII SAR (Energy Primer) but with SRES accounting conventions. Note that ASF, MiniCam, and IMAGE scenarios do not consider non-commercial renewable energy. Hence, these scenarios report lower energy use.
0
2
4
6
8
10
1900 1950 2000 2050 2100
Glo
bal C
arbo
n D
ioxi
de E
mis
sion
sSR
ES
Scen
ario
s an
d D
atab
ase
Ran
ge(in
dex,
199
0=1)
IS92 range
A1, B2
A2
B1
Median
5%
95%
1990 range(all scenarios)
Maximum in Database
Minimum in Database
Total database range
Non
-inte
rven
tion
Non
-cla
ssifi
ed
Inte
rven
tion
Global CO2 Emissions from Energy & Industry
Source: IPCC. 2000. Emissions Scenarios. Working Group III. Cambridge.
Scenarios
• CO, (MtCO/yr) 879 363 - 2570
• NMVOC, (Mt/yr) 139 87 - 420
• NOX, (MtN/yr) 30.9 19 - 110
1990 2100
0
50
100
150
200
250
Maximum in database
Minimum in database
Glo
bal S
ulfu
r D
ioxi
de E
mis
sion
s(M
tS)
1930 1960 2020 2050 2100
1990 range
IS92
A2
B1
Sul
fur
- no
n-co
ntro
l, an
d no
n-cl
assi
fied
sce
nari
os
Sul
fur
- co
ntro
l
B2
20801990
Total database range
Range of sulfur-controlscenarios in the database
A1
Global Anthropogenic SO2 Emissions (MtS)
Source: IPCC. 2000. Emissions Scenarios. Working Group III. Cambridge.
Projected Change in Global Mean Surface Temperature from Models using
the SRES Emissions Scenarios
Year
Te
mp
e ra
ture
Ch
ang
e (
º C)
5
4
3
2
1
0
6
SAR
The 1997/98 El Niño Strongest on Record*
*As shown by changes in sea-surface temperature (relative to the 1961-1990 average) for the eastern tropical Pacific off Peru
El Niño years
La Niña years
Potential Climate Change Impacts
Balanced Approach to Policymaking
• Command and Control Strategies
• Market-based Interventions
• Voluntary Agreements
Enabling Conditions forEffective Policy Change
• Proper Incentive Systems
• Strong Legal Frameworks
• Public Participation
• Cooperation with the Private Sector
• Technological Capacity
• Financial and Institutional Capacity
• Information for Assessment and Monitoring
USINGMARKETS
CREATINGMARKETS
ENVIRONMENTALREGULATIONS
ENGAGINGTHE PUBLIC
(Subsidy reduction,taxes, user fees,
performance bonds,targeted subsidies)
(Property rights anddecentralization,tradable permits,international offset
systems)
(Standards, bans,quotas)
(Informationdisclosure, public
participation)
WATER
FISHERIES
LAND
MANAGEMENT
FORESTS
SUSTAINABLEAGRICULTURE
BIODIVERSITY/PROT. AREAS
MINERALS
AIR POLLUTION
WATERPOLLUTION
SOLID WASTE
HAZARDOUSWASTE
The Policy Matrix
Source: World Bank. 1997. Five Years after Rio: Innovations in Environmental Policy. Washington, D.C.
Mitigation Options• Supply Side
Fuel switching (coal to oil to gas) Increased power plant efficiency (30% to ~60%) Renewables (biomass, solar, wind, hydro, etc.) Carbon dioxide sequestration Nuclear power
• Demand Side Transportation Commercial and residential buildings Industry
• Land-Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry Afforestation, Reforestation and slowing Deforestation Improved Forest, Cropland and Rangeland Management Agroforestry
• Waste Management and Reduced Halocarbon Emissions
Policy Instruments
• Policies, which may need regional or international agreement, include:Energy pricing strategies and taxesRemoving subsidies that increase GHG emissions Internalizing environmental extranalitiesTradable emissions permits-- domestic and globalVoluntary programsRegulatory programs including energy-efficiency standards Incentives for use of new technologies during market build-upEducation and training such as product advisories and labels
• Accelerated development of technologies as well as understanding the barriers to diffusion into the marketplace requires intensified R&D by governments and the private sector
CarbonTrading
JI
MoreRenewables
MoreGEF
CleanTechnology
CleanFuel
EconomicInstruments
EnvironmentalStandards
RegionalAgreements
Sector Reform
Energy Efficiency
Rural Energy
InternalizingGlobal Externalities(supporting the post-Kyoto process)
Local/RegionalPollutionAbatement(to be strengthened)
Win-Win(in place)
Fuel For Thought: Strategy for The Year 2000
Surprise
Geoth.
Solar
Biomass
Wind
Nuclear
Hydro
Gas
Oil & NGL
Coal
Trad Bio.0
500
1000
1500
1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060
exajoules
Energy SupplySustained Growth Scenario
Source: Shell International Limited.
Co-Benefits - Mitigation
• Co-benefits can lower the cost of climate change mitigation
• Identify technologies, practices and policies that can simultaneously address local and regional environmental issues and climate changeenergy sector
•indoor and outdoor air quality•regional acid deposition
transportation sector•outdoor air pollution•traffic congestion
agriculture and forestry•soil fertility•biodiversity and related ecological goods and services
Magnitudes and Costs of Impacts
Particulates • Premature death and excess morbidity.• $100’s millions to billions per year in large cities. (“An average of 10% of the annual city incomes of Bangkok, Kuala Lumpur and Jakarta.)• E.Asia, S.Asia, E.Europe, Russia, L.America
Lead • Excess morbidity and loss of IQ points.• Up to $100 million per year in large cities.• E.Asia, S.Asia, E.Europe, Russia, L.America.
Sulfur • Local excess morbidity; local impacts up to $50 million (?) per year in large cities.• Regional acidification; quantification of regional impacts more difficult than local impacts, due to lack of adequate dose-response data.• E.Europe, China/Korea/Japan, India.
Other air (ozone, NOx, CO, volatile hydrocarbons, toxic air pollutants)• Local excess morbidity + some toxic related premature mortality.• Quantification of impacts more difficult (lack of adequate dose-response data); probable range.
Local and Regional Impacts
Relative Costs of AbatementParticulates • Thermal power: relatively in-expensive.
• Cleaner fuels: relatively in-expensive.• Transporte sector (e.g. improved traffic management,
modal shifts, vehicle fleet upgrade, vehiclemodernization): “reasonably” in-expensive.
Lead Cleaner gasoline: relatively in-expensive.
Sulfur FGD for coal-fired thermal power plants: relativelyexpensive.
Others (ozone, NOx, CO, volatile hydrocarbons, toxic air pollutants)Abatement technologies and costs vary. Someabatement is produced ‘jointly’ with the aboveimprovements.
Hydro-related externalitiesEnvironmental and social R&R costs very site-specific.
Internalizing Local andRegional Externalities
Pollution in Selected Cities (TSP)
Source: OECD Environmental data 1995; WRI China tables 1995; Central Pollution Control Board, Delhi. “Ambient Air Quality Status and Statistics, 1993 and 1994”; Urban Air Pollution in Megacities of the World, WHO/UNEP, 1992; EPA, AIRS database.
Health Costs (TSP in China)
Source: Clear Water, Blue Skies; China’s Environment in the New Century, World Bank, 1997.