Gas Power Plants Presentation

8/12/2019 Gas Power Plants Presentation

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A policy assessment:

Import of Gas to Fuel starved

Power Stations

G. Behari

Director (OM) CEAFarhan Beg

NIT Srinagar, India


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India Country Profile:

Area: 3.29 million sq. km. (1.27 million sq. mi.)

Population:1.2208 billion

Climate: Desert, Mountain, Subtropical, Semi Arid steppe, Moist subtropical

Purchasing Power Parity: 4735 $Billion (2012 est.)

All India Installed Capacity: 211766.22 MW (As on 31.01.2013)

Per Capita Consumption: 879.22 kWh (2011-2012)


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Department of

Atomic Energy

Ministry of

Power

Central ElectricityAuthority

Central ElectricityRegularity

Commission

State ElectricityRegularity

Commission

Indian Power Sector


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Inside Indias Electrical Power System:Generation Transmission Distribution

Centrally owned

Generation:

State ownedgenerators

Private Generators

Power-GridCorporation

State OwnedTX

State ElectricityBoards

National PowerSystem Desk(POSOCO)

National LoadDispatch Center

(NLDC)

Regional LoadDispatch

Centers-5(RLDC)

State LoadDispatch

Centers-34

State OwnedDistributionCompanies

Private DistributionCompanies

Sub state- LoadDispatch

Centers-51

Regional PowerCommittee-5


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Acknowledging Supply and Demand:

Gap between demand and supply is wide and growing.

Demographics and Economics are the reason for it.

Growing economy and Massive urbanization putting more stress on energy and the

environment.

Requiremrnt Availability Shortage %

Energy(MU) 937,199 857,886 79,313 8.5

Peak(MW) 130,006 116,191 13,815 10.6

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

800,000

900,000

1,000,000Actual Power Supply Position During 2011-12

Source: CEA


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Power supply position:

All India (2011-12):

(MW) Energy (MU) PeakRequirement 937,199 130,006Availability 857,886 116,191Shortage 79,313 13,815(%) 8.5% 10.6%

Requirement Availability Shortage

Energy (MU) 937,199 857,886 79,313

Peak 130,006 116,191 13,815

0100,000200,000300,000

400,000500,000600,000700,000800,000900,000

1,000,000


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Requirement(MU)

Availability(MU)

Requirement(MU)

Availability(MU)

Energy Peak

Northern 276,121 258,382 40248 37117

Western 290,421 257,403 42,352 36,509

Southern 260,302 237,480 37,599 32,188

Eastern 99,344 94,657 14707 13,999

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

Regional power supply position(2011-2012):


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Power Generation Capacity:

57%

1%

9%

19%

2% 12%

Coal Diesel

Gas HydroNuclear Non renewables

Coal accounts for nearly 57 % of the total power generation

Abundant coal reservesPower Generation using coal is cheaperEven though abundant coal reserves are a reason for themonopolistic power generation using coal, yet India is facing

huge coal supply and production issues.

As on 31.03.2012


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Indian Coal Scenario:

Coal Mining started by Messrs Sumner & Heatly of the East India company way

back in 1774Mines were nationalized in the country with the inception of CIL in 1970 toincrease the influx of investmentsIndian power delivery chain is highly dependent on coal with nearly 70 % of itsgeneration and is experiencing perpetual fuel shortagesFuel shortages are dominant even when India has 10% of the worlds coal

reserves

0

10002000

3000

Million

Tonnes

Years

Projected demand-supply of coal by2025

Demand by powersector

Supply to powersector

Source:ObserverResearchFoundation


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All Figures in MTS NO Description 2011-121.1 Coal requirement for plants designed on

indigenous coal 4551.2 Coal requirements for plants designed on

imported coal 201.3 Total 4752. Coal availability from indigenous Sources2.1 From CIL Sources 3472.2 From SCCL 332.3 From Captive Mines 222.4 Total coal availability from indigenous

sources 4023. Shortfall of indigenous coal 53

Coal Scenario for 2011-12


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Energy Demands &Drivers for Alternate Sources ofEnergy:

1. High Growth Rate in Overall Energy needs:

Expansion of supply demand gap is due to increasePresently Supply-Demand gap is nearly 12.9%

2. Increasing reliance on imports of fossil fuels:

Country imported nearly 80% of its crude oilconsumption in 2009-10Over 48% of the country's total imports bill typically

goes towards oil imports

Contd


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3. Need for a viable solution for rural electrification:A program of grid strengthening and extension was

initiated in 2005Benefits the 400 million Indians who lack access toelectricity

4. Electricity peak demand-supply : The electricity shortfall for the fiscal year (2011-2012)was 10.3% with a peak shortage of 12.9%.

5. Pressure on industry and policy to abate GHG emissions:

Indiasstrategy for tackling climate change is set out inits National Action Plan on Climate Change (NAPCC),released in 2008


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Hydro: An Overview

Globally India ranks 5thin terms of total hydro-potentialHydro electric potential in India is 84000 MW at 60 % load factorwhich is equivalent to 1,48,700 MW installed capacity

Basin/Rivers Installed Capacity(MW)Indus Basin

33,832

Ganga Basin 20,711Central Indian River system 4,152Western flowing Rivers of Southern India 9,430Eastern flowing rivers of Southern India 14,511Brahmaputra Basin 66,065Total 1,48,701

Basin Wise Assessment:


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Advantages of hydropower over thermal power:

Renewable and Non PollutingCost of generation, operation and maintenance is lowerthan the other sources of energy.

Cost of generation is free of the inflationary effects afterthe final installation.


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National Policy on Hydropower introduced in 1998Main Points:

To ensure targeted capacity addition during 9thplan (and the

subsequent plans)Exploitation of vast Hydro Electric Potential at faster pacePromotion of small and mini hydro projects especially in remote andhilly areas where extension of the grid is comparatively uneconomicalStrengthening the role of PSUs and SEBs in taking up new hydroprojectsIncreasing private investments for development of hydropower in India


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Issues Impeding Development of Hydro Power:

Difficult/In-accessible locationsLand acquisition problemsResettlement and Rehabilitation issues

Law And Order SituationGeological surprisesInter-State DisputesCumbersome process for obtaining the clearances

from various national bodies


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Limitations of Hydro Projects:

Away from load centers; evacuation of power is a bigproblemLack of availability of long term financeProduction risks since the project is planned based in thehistorical data which may not occur in futureDifficulty in Investigations/Implementations due to

remoteness of the areaLong gestation period


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Natural Gas Scope:

Petroleum and Gas emerging as the most dynamic energy sectors in

the countryClean and an efficient choice for power generation.

Total Capacity of Gas Based power plants was 18,381 MW as on 31March 2012.

0

1

23

4

5

6

2003 2008 2013 2018 2023 2028 2033CubicTrillionFeet

Year

Supply

Demand

Supply And Demand Scenario of Gas In the country:


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India Renewable Scenario:As on November 2012 12% of total installed capacity (210 GW) through

renewable sourcesWIND (18.3 GW)Small hydro (3.4 GW)Biomass (1.2 GW)Solar (1 GW)

Wind,17352.

65

Solar,941.28

Smallhydro,

3395.31

Biomass,1150

Progressive Renewable Sector

Wind,28352.

65

Solar,4741.28

SmallHydro,4995.31

Biomass,3250

2012 2017

Contd


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Installed capacity Financialrequirement

Type 2012 2017 CAGR Rupees(CR)SHP 3395.31 4995.31 10% 8000Biomass 1150 3250 30% 10500Solar 941.28 9941 80% 63000Wind 17352.65 28352.65 13% 67200

Large cash inflows required to bring about such change.Financial Requirement of such a proposition very high.

Source Potential inIndia

Present InstalledCapacity

(Nov12)

Wind 60 GW 17.62 GW

Solar 50 GW 941 MW

Geothermal 10.6 GW 220 MW

Biomass 34.9 GW 1150 MW


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Issues with large scale deployment ofRenewable Energy

High up-front costs Local Site Issues

Mature Generation(Hydro power, Biomass,Solar thermal hot water,

geothermal)

Technological advancements needed. Need substantial cost reduction through market

experience (Need to be deployed)

Developing Generation(Wind, Bio Energy, Solar

PV)

Still require substantial RD&D to be deployed Need to be deployed and tested in pilot projects

R&D Generation(Concentrating Solarpower, Ocean Energy,

Advanced forms of Bio

energy)

Renewable energys are classified into threegenerations each presenting their own issues:


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Capacity Addition in the 12thplan with 9% GDP GR& 0.9 Elasticity (All Values in MW)

Type ofCapacity

Capacity Addition

Base Case High Gas High Gas + highrenewableScenario

Thermal 63781 63886 60486

Coal 62695 50600 47400

Gas 1086 13086 13086

Hydro 9204 9204 9204

Nuclear 2800 2800 2800

Total 75785 75690 72490Renewables 18500 18500 30000

Imports 1200 1200 1200

CoalRequirement(MT)

842 772 764

Source:CEA


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Capacity Addition Requirement during 12thplan (MW) Base Case:

Type of Capacity Demand Corresponding to 9%GDP GR & .9 Elasticity

Thermal 63,781

Coal 62,695

Gas 1,086

Hydro 9,204

Nuclear 2,800

Total 75,785

Figures in MW

Additionally, grid interactive renewable capacity addition of about18500 MW has been projected.

Source: CEA


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Coal Demand and Availability:

Coal Requirement during the year 2016-17 842MT

Coal Availability from :

a: CIL 418 MT

b: SCCl 35 MT

c:Captive blocks allocated to powerutilities

100 MT

d: Coal to be imported by TPSs designedimported Coal

54 MT

Total Coal availability 604 MT

Shortfall 238 MT

Source: Working group on power-12thplan


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Capacity Addition Hindrances:

Thermal:Even though accounting for nearly 80% of Indias total generation, thefuture seems grim. Fuel shortage is acute and supply demand gap of coal isincreasing unabated.

Hydro:Nearly 9204 MW of power projected for hydro power in the 12th

plan. Long gestation period and environmental ramifications continueto hold back the hydro power potential of the country to some extent .

Renewables:Higher initial costs coupled with renewable technologies being in a

developmental stage present issues for their large scale deployment.Renewable technologies need to be improved and cost effectivedeployments introduced to make renewable energy generation take overfrom the conventional fossil fuel generation.


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Mitigating shortages: Options available

Renovation and modernization of existing thermal power plantsCapacity enhancement of existing hydro power stationsReduction of technical and commercial losses through theintroduction of Smart Grid

Import of Gas to Fuel Starved Power Stations to enhance theirelectricity generation to be sold through ABT


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Import of Gas to Fuel Starved Power

Stations: Methodology

Sample Area Selected: Western RegionImported Gas supplied(In addition to gas already being supplied):Power Stations in Gujarat & Maharashtra (Gas Based)Study Month November 2012Feasible additional generation from these stations.Cost of fuel for this additional generationSale of this addition generation under ABT


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Resultant Parameters

Additional Generation = 1900 MU per day(Enhanced Efficiency & auxiliary losses are not considered fortime being)Cost of Imported gas= $13.627/MMSCMD

(Report of the Committee on the production sharing contractmechanism in Petroleum industry- December 2012)Cost of Addition generation=$19.6 MillionCost of fuel =$19.6 MillionAdditional O&M expenses (to be worked out):would not besubstantialRevenue Realization :additional electricity = Rs 162 crore(equivalent : $30.6 million ; 1$=53 INR)


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Assumptions

Efficiency of gas stations does not improve appreciably with highergeneration (could be worked out at a later stage while carrying out

detailed study)O&M cost of gas station does not increase appreciably with enhancedgeneration (Need to be established, however the enhancement of O&Mcost would not be substantial)No backing down/Non scheduling of gas stations owing to higher cost

of generationRevenue realization is based on average cost of generation during theyear 2010-11.


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Import of gas is economically viable if the additional electricity generation issold under ABT

Issues to be addressed:

Conclusion

Source of imported gas

Transportation of gas up to the Indian coastLanding port of gasStorage of gas at the portTransportation of gas within India

Documents

Gas Power Plants Presentation