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Quarterly 10 January 2013
Khatija Haque
Senior Economist
+971 4 230 7801
GCC Quarterly
We expect average GCC growth to slow to 4.6% in 2013 from an estimated
6.0% in 2012. Growth in 2012 was higher than initially forecast on the back of
substantial, unexpected increases in oil production. However, we expect oil output
to remain broadly stable in 2013 in our base case scenario, and most of the GDP
growth to come from the non-oil sectors this year.
We have revised up our forecast for the UAE’s growth in 2013 to 3.8% from
3.5% previously. We have also raised our estimates for 2012 real GDP growth to
3.7% from 3.0% previously, on higher than anticipated oil production, and strong
manufacturing PMI data in Q4 2012.
Saudi Arabia’s economy expanded by 6.8% in 2012, higher than our 5.8%
forecast, with construction, transport, storage & communications posting double
digit growth. We expect growth to slow to 5.4% in 2013 as oil production remains
unchanged. Increased government spending is expected to support non-oil growth
in the Kingdom this year.
In Qatar, we expect growth to slow to 5.2% in 2013 from an estimated 6.7% in
2012. The contribution to growth from the hydrocarbon sector has all but
disappeared, and we expect infrastructure investment and public spending to be
the main economic drivers in 2013-2015.
We expect Kuwait’s growth to slow to 3.0% in 2013 from an estimated 6.0% in
2012, as the political stalemate between parliament and the government makes
budget execution challenging. The high 2012 growth estimate reflects a 12.6%
increase in oil production, and we think this is unlikely to be replicated this year.
Oman’s economy grew 8.3% in 2012, according to official estimates, higher
than our 5.2% forecast. Increased oil production and substantial fiscal stimulus
contributed to the better than expected 2012 outcome. This year, we expect growth
to moderate to 4.7% on the back of a slower expansion in the hydrocarbons sector.
We expect growth in Bahrain to slow to 2.8% this year from an estimated
3.8% in 2012. We expect government spending to be a key contributor to growth,
notwithstanding the projected decline in the official budget for 2012.
2013 growth forecasts, by region
Source: IMF WEO Oct 2012, Emirates NBD Research
7.2
5.7
4.64.1 3.9
2.6
1.5
0
2
4
6
8
10
Develo
p.
Asia
Sub-
Sahara
A
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a
GC
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Page 2
Contents
Overview ...................................................................................................................................... Page 3
UAE ............................................................................................................................................... Page 5
UAE - Dubai ............................................................................................................................... Page 7
Saudi Arabia ............................................................................................................................... Page 8
Qatar ............................................................................................................................................. Page 9
Kuwait ........................................................................................................................................ Page 10
Oman .......................................................................................................................................... Page 11
Bahrain ....................................................................................................................................... Page 12
Key Economic Forecasts..................................................................................................... Page 13
Page 3
Overview
We estimate average GCC growth at 6.0% in 2012, down from
7.4% in 2011 but higher than the 3.9% we had forecast at the
start of last year, mainly due to higher than expected oil
production. Fiscal stimulus also contributed significantly to real
growth, particularly in Saudi Arabia and Oman.
Oil sector developments and outlook
GCC oil production in 2012 was 6.2% higher than 2011, and
this was a key driver of growth in the region last year. GCC oil
output rose sharply in April and then again over the summer as oil
prices surged, but then declined in Q4 12. On average, Saudi
Arabia’s crude output increased 5.8% over 2011 to reach 9.8mn
bpd, while Kuwait’s oil output rose 12.6% y/y to reach 2.8mn bpd;
higher than the UAE’s average output of 2.6mn bpd. The UAE’s
oil production was 5.2% higher y/y.
Despite some volatility through the year, the average OPEC
reference oil price was just 2% higher than 2011, at USD 109.45
per barrel.
Bloomberg consensus oil price forecasts1 for 2013 average USD
103 per barrel, implying a 6% decline in the average oil price this
year compared to 2012. Consequently, we expect oil production
in the GCC this year to remain broadly unchanged to 2012 in
our base case scenario.
Non-oil sectors to drive GCC growth in 2013
As a result, we expect most of the growth in the region to
come from the non-oil sectors in 2013, underpinned by high
government spending. This is most evident in Saudi Arabia and
Oman, which have announced substantial increases in
government spending for the next fiscal year.
We have revised up our forecast for Saudi Arabia’s 2013
growth to 5.4% from 4.5%, and we now expect Oman’s
economy to expand by 4.7% in 2013, up from our previous
forecast of 4.0%. Unlike the rest of the GCC, we expect Oman’s
hydrocarbon sector to continue to expand slightly this year, as the
government invests in production and refining capacity.
We expect government spending in Qatar to be increased in
the 2013/14 fiscal year as well. However, we forecast growth will
slow to 5.2% in 2013 from an estimated 6.7% in 2012.
The fiscal stimulus in the UAE is likely to be more moderate
compared with the rest of the region, as the authorities have
adopted a more cautious fiscal stance post-2009. Although the
non-oil private sector has shown good signs of recovery
(particularly in manufacturing, real estate, hospitality and retail
sectors) in 2012, the low level of private sector credit growth could
1 We average WTI and Brent forecasts, as this is a reasonable proxy for
the OPEC reference price.
2013 Regional growth forecasts
Source: IMF WEO Oct 2012, Emirates NBD Research
GCC Oil output and price
Source: Bloomberg, Emirates NBD Research
Average* GCC budget balance
Source: Haver Analytics, Emirates NBD Research
* Nominal GDP weighted average
7.2
5.74.6
4.1 3.9
2.61.5
0
2
4
6
8
10
Develo
p. A
sia
Sub-S
ahara
Afr
ica
GC
C
CIS
Lat.
Am
CE
Euro
pe
Adv. econom
ies
10
12
14
16
18
20
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12
mn b
arr
els
per
day
US
D p
er
barr
el
GCC oil production (excl Oman, Bahrain)
OPEC oil price
21.0
-2.2
3.7
11.3 11.4
6.4
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012f 2013f
% G
DP
Page 4
constrain economic activity in 2013. On the positive side, the
increased demand from the wider region will likely continue to
support growth in the UAE’s non-oil sectors in 2013. We have
revised up our forecast for the UAE’s growth this year to 3.8%
from 3.5% previously.
In Kuwait, budget execution has been hampered by the
deadlock between parliament and the government. Unless this
issue is resolved, we do not expect significant progress with
budget implementation in 2013, and this is the key reason for our
relatively low 3.0% growth forecast in Kuwait this year.
We expect Bahrain’s growth to ease slightly to 2.8% in 2013
from an estimated 3.8% in 2012. While the hospitality sector has
recovered from the sharp decline in 2011, it contributes a relatively
small amount to overall economic activity. We expect government
spending to be a key contributor to growth this year,
notwithstanding the projected decline in the official budget for
2012.
Risks to 2013 growth forecasts
Overall, we expect GCC growth to slow to 4.6% in 2013 from
an estimated 6.0% in 2012. There are clearly both upside and
downside risks to our forecast. An escalation in geopolitical risks
or a faster than expected recovery in global growth could result in
sharply higher oil prices, and if sustained, this could prompt GCC
states to boost oil production from already high levels in 2013.
On the downside, a deeper recession in the Eurozone or slower
than expected growth in China could trigger a sharper than
expected decline in oil prices. In this scenario GCC states could
cut oil production, which would drag down overall GDP growth in
the region. In this scenario, we think Saudi Arabia is the most
vulnerable as it is typically the ‘swing’ oil producer in the region. If
oil prices fall well below expectations this year, prompting
governments in the region to curtail spending, then this would be a
further drag on growth.
Inflation set to rise this year
Inflation has been relatively benign in 2012; we estimate average
GCC consumer inflation at 2.9% down from 3.5% in 2013.
Declining housing costs have helped to offset increases in the
price of some services. However, we expect inflation to accelerate
to 3.8% in 2013 as aggregate demand continues to rise and
housing costs in the region, particularly Qatar and the UAE,
recover as well.
External balances remain healthy
We estimate the average current account surplus in the GCC rose
to almost 23% of GDP last year, unchanged from 2011 as higher
oil exports were likely offset by increased imports and remittances
abroad. We expect the regional current account surplus to narrow
slightly to 19.5% of GDP this year.
GCC average* inflation
Source: Haver Analytics, Emirates NBD Research
*Nominal GDP weighted average
Average* GCC current account surplus
Source: Haver Analytics, Emirates NBD Research
*Nominal GDP weighted average
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012f 2013f
%
22.6
7.5
14.5
23.0 22.9
19.5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2008 2009 2010f 2011 2012f 2013f
% G
DP
Page 5
UAE
2012 growth forecast revised up to 3.7%
We have revised up our 2012 growth estimate to 3.7% from
3.0% previously, on higher than projected oil output and evidence
a stronger recovery in the non-oil sectors as well. We now
estimate Abu Dhabi’s growth at 3.9% last year, up from 3.3%
previously as crude oil output rose more than 5% y/y according to
Bloomberg estimates. In Dubai, stronger than expected 1H 12
official growth estimates (4.1% y/y) combined with better than
expected PMI data in Q4 have led us to revise our growth estimate
for the emirate to 3.2%, up from 2.5% previously.
The December PMI data was particularly encouraging, with
the overall index rising to the highest level since July 2011.
Importantly, domestic demand appears to have gained momentum
in Q4 12, which bodes well for 2013. The PMI data suggests that
external demand is contributing to the expansion in the non-oil
manufacturing sector, but does not account for all of the gains.
2013 growth forecast at 3.8%
We have revised up our forecast for 2013 growth to 3.8% from
3.5% previously. Abu Dhabi’s growth is expected to slow slightly
this year, reflecting stabilization in oil production after strong
growth in this sector in 2011 and 2012. This should be offset by a
solid 5% expansion in the non-oil sectors. In Dubai, we expect
growth to accelerate to 3.9% in 2013, and we discuss this outlook
in more detail in the next section.
We expect regional demand, buoyed by strong government
spending in Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Oman to have a positive
knock-on impact on the UAE’s economy. Manufacturing and
construction companies are likely to benefit from increased
infrastructure investment in neighbouring countries, while job
creation efforts and higher salaries will likely continue to support
the UAE’s tourism and retail sectors. Non-oil foreign trade with the
GCC has also continued to grow, supporting the trade and logistics
sectors in the UAE, and offsetting weaker trade with the Eurozone
and other western trade partners.
That the UAE has likely achieved growth in excess of 3.5% in 2012
even against a backdrop of relatively low liquidity and anaemic
private sector credit growth, is surprising. In our view, this
underlines the importance of the regional economy and its
contribution to the UAE’s economic performance.
Money supply and private credit growth set to rise in 2013
Broad money supply growth slowed sharply in Q2 12, before
recovering slightly in Q3. The main driver appears to have been
an outflow of quasi money (fx and longer term dirham deposits).
Increased risk aversion due to the escalating Eurozone crisis
heading into the summer, and repatriation of foreign banks’ funds
to their ‘home’ markets may have contributed to this outflow of
deposits last year.
GDP growth
Source: National sources, Emirates NBD Research
Oil production
Source: Bloomberg, Emirates NBD Research
PMI
Source: HSBC/ Markit, Emirates NBD Research
3.2
-4.8
1.3
4.23.7 3.8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012f 2013f
% y
/y
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
2.1
2.2
2.3
2.4
2.5
2.6
2.7
2.8
2.9
Jan-11 May-11 Sep-11 Jan-12 May-12 Sep-12
US
D p
er
barr
el
mn b
pd
Oil production (lhs) Oil price (rhs)
48
50
52
54
56
58
Jan-11 May-11 Sep-11 Jan-12 May-12 Sep-12
Page 6
We expect M2 growth to reach 3.3% by end-2012, and we expect
money supply growth to accelerate modestly this year on the back
of increased confidence in the economic recovery, reaching 6.5%
by end-2013.
Private sector credit growth is likely to end 2012 at around the
same level as 2011 at 2.0% y/y. To some extent, the low level of
private sector credit growth is due to ‘crowding out’ by the public
sector. Public sector borrowing has grown by almost 20% in the
first 10 months of 2012, compared to the same period in 2011. To
the extent that public sector demand for credit eases in 2013, and
as consumer confidence continues to improve, we expect to see
private sector credit growth accelerate to 5.0% by end-2013.
Fiscal policy to remain relatively conservative
The UAE is a bit of an outlier in the region in terms of fiscal
policy. Where other GCC oil exporters have aggressively
increased spending in the wake of the financial crisis and the Arab
Spring, the UAE has had to tackle high levels of GRE debt, which
has limited its ability to sustain double digit spending growth post-
2009. Although total budget expenditure did rise by almost 20%
in 2011 (IMF estimates), this was largely due to higher ‘loans &
equity’ outflows, rather than current or infrastructure spending.
In 2013, we expect consolidated government spending to
remain at similar levels to 2012 (and 2011) in dirham terms;
AED 400bn. However, we expect current and development
spending to receive bigger shares of the budget, as funds used to
assist troubled GREs are likely to be reduced.
Inflation likely to rise slightly in 2013
Inflation in 2012 likely undershot our 0.9% forecast, as the
average year-to-November was just 0.7%. Housing costs
continued to decline on an annual basis, although the rate of
decline has slowed. Food inflation also moderated, and there was
little evidence of demand driven inflation in other components. This
is consistent with the price indices in the PMI surveys, which
suggest little pricing power on the part of manufacturers, and
stable output prices in 2H 12.
However, market data (source: Cluttons) shows housing costs in
Dubai have increased through 2012, and we expect the
disinflationary impact of housing on the CPI is likely to ease in
2013. The apparent discrepancy between ‘real time’ market data
and the housing sub-index of the CPI is due to how the data is
collected: market data captures the price of real estate sold at the
point of sale, or rental rates for new contracts as they are renewed,
whereas the CPI in any month will survey a mix of both new and
ongoing rental contracts/ housing costs. Consequently, we still
think the housing CPI could continue to decline for several more
months, despite rising market rates. As an illustration, Cluttons
data shows Dubai’s real estate prices declining on a y/y basis
since December 2008, whereas the first y/y decline in the housing
sub-index of Dubai’s CPI was in April 2010.
Overall we expect UAE inflation to accelerate to an average
2.5% in 2013.
Money supply and credit growth
Source: Haver Analytics, Emirates NBD Research
Consolidated budget breakdown (AED bn)
Source: IMF, Emirates NBD Research
Inflation
Source: Haver Analytics, Emirates NBD Research
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
Jan-11 May-11 Sep-11 Jan-12 May-12 Sep-12
% y
/y
M2
Private credit
Public sector credit
-6
-3
0
3
6
9
12
Jan-11 May-11 Sep-11 Jan-12 May-12 Sep-12
% y
/y
CPI Food Housing
Page 7
UAE - Dubai
Manufacturing drives growth in 1H 12
The breakdown of Dubai’s 1H 12 GDP growth showed a
stronger than expected 10% y/y expansion in the
manufacturing sector, which accounts for about 14% of Dubai’s
GDP. Although tourism and hospitality sectors grabbed the
headlines in 2012 for their continued strong growth (16.1% y/y in
1H 12), restaurants & hotels account for just 4% of Dubai’s
economy. This is the main reason our previous projection for
Dubai’s growth in 2012 was just 2.5% - we expected the strongest
growth in the sectors that didn’t contribute significantly overall.
Wholesale & retail trade, the largest sector in Dubai’s economy,
expanded 3.8% y/y in 1H 12 according to Dubai Statistics, largely
in line with our expectations. While the better than expected
manufacturing growth was the main driver of our 2012 growth
forecast upgrade to 3.2%, there were other contributing factors as
well.
Non oil foreign trade held up better than expected into the
third-quarter, with Dubai Customs announcing that the total value
of trade rose 12.8% y/y in January-October 2012. Both exports
and imports showed double digit growth. Although the
construction sector declined by -2.5% y/y in 1H 12, the raft of
new projects announced in 2H 12 suggests that this sector may
have bottomed. Real estate & business services posted the first
annual gain in value added since 2008, reflecting the improved
sentiment towards and recovery in real estate prices in Dubai.
Growth forecast to accelerate to 3.9% in 2013
Looking to 2013, we expect many of these sectors to gain
momentum, pushing Dubai’s overall growth to 3.9%.
Manufacturing, tourism and hospitality is likely to continue to
benefit from regional demand. If some of the new projects
announced get underway during the course of this year, we expect
the construction sector to post the first positive growth since
2008.
Although there have been concerns about the impact of recently
announced curbs on mortgages, most of the demand for Dubai’s
residential real estate has been from cash and foreign buyers, who
are unlikely to be deterred by the absence of mortgage finance.
We thus expect to see continued recovery in Dubai’s real
estate sector, albeit at a slower, more sustainable pace than
we saw in 2012.
We expect non-oil trade to continue to expand in 2013,
notwithstanding relatively weak growth in the US and possible
recession in Europe. China’s growth is expected to accelerate to
8.1% in 2013 (Bloomberg consensus) and it is a top-three trading
partner for the UAE. Trade with the GCC is also likely to grow on
the back of stronger public sector investment and consumer
spending in Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Oman.
GDP growth
Source: Haver Analytics, Emirates NBD Research
Real estate price growth
Source: Cluttons via Bloomberg, Emirates NBD Research
Trade growth (value)
Source: Federal Customs Authority, Emirates NBD Research
3.2
-2.4
2.8
3.43.2
3.9
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012f 2013f
% y
/y
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12
% y
/y
Mid Range Villas
Mid Range Apartments
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12
% y
/y
Exports + re-exports
Imports
Page 8
Saudi Arabia
Growth expected to slow to 5.4% in 2013
Official estimates put real growth at 6.8% last year, much
higher than our 5.8% forecast. 2011 GDP growth was also
revised up from 7.1% to 8.5%, most likely due to higher estimates
of hydrocarbon growth. Oil production contributed significantly to
GDP growth in 2012 as well, with expansion of 5.5% in the
hydrocarbon sector last year. However, government spending was
the key driver of growth, and this is reflected in the 10.3% growth
in construction and the 10.7% growth in transport, storage &
communications sectors. Non-oil manufacturing expanded 8.3%
last year, while the utilities sector grew 7.3%.
Looking ahead to 2013, we expect government spending to
continue to underpin growth. This year’s budget provides for SAR
820bn in government spending, broadly similar to last year’s
spend. However, the government usually overshoots its budget,
and we expect spending to reach SAR 984bn in 2013, a 15%
increase on 2012. It is on this basis that we have revised up
our forecast for the Kingdom’s GDP growth to 5.4% in 2013,
from 4.8% previously.
The main reason for the slowdown in growth this year is our
outlook for oil production. Saudi Arabia’s crude oil output rose
almost 12% in 2011 and a further 5.8% in 2012, according to
Bloomberg estimates. Average oil production last year stood at
9.8mn bpd, the highest since 1981. As outlined in our overview
section, our base case is for GCC oil production to remain
unchanged this year. Consequently, we do not forecast any
growth in Saudi Arabia’s hydrocarbon sector in 2013.
Inflation to rise slightly in 2013
Consumer inflation was lower than we expected in 2012,
averaging around 4.1%, down from 4.9% in 2011. The main driver
was lower housing inflation, which declined to 2.3% y/y in
November 2012. We expect inflation to pick up slightly to average
4.5% in 2013, as strengthening domestic demand starts to be
reflected in higher services prices.
Fiscal and external balances to remain healthy
Despite the substantial increase in government spending in recent
years, the budget has continued to post surpluses. We expect the
budget surplus to narrow to 7.0% of GDP this year from an
estimated 14.2% in 2012, as oil prices are likely to decline slightly
and oil output is expected to remain stable.
We expect the current account surplus is set to remain healthy at
20% of GDP in 2013, and SAMA’s net foreign assets – which
stood at USD 634bn at the end of November – are likely to rise
further, adding to the substantial cushion against oil price shocks.
GDP growth
Source: Haver, National sources, Emirates NBD Research
Oil production
Source: Bloomberg, Emirates NBD Research
PMI
Source: HSBC/ Markit, Emirates NBD Research
4.2
0.1
5.1
8.5
6.8
5.4
0
2
4
6
8
10
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012f 2013f
% y
/y
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
7
8
9
10
11
Jan-11 May-11 Sep-11 Jan-12 May-12 Sep-12
US
D p
er
barr
el
mn b
pd
Oil production (lhs) Oil price (rhs)
50
52
54
56
58
60
62
64
66
Jan-11 May-11 Sep-11 Jan-12 May-12 Sep-12
Page 9
Qatar
2012 growth driven by non-oil sectors
We retain our estimate for 2012 real growth at 6.7%, with most
of this coming from the non-hydrocarbon sector. Data shows
the transport & communication sector expanded 13.4% in the first
three-quarters of 2012, followed by manufacturing (12.1%),
building & construction (8.5%) and utilities (8.5%). Government
services, which alone accounts for more than 10% of Qatar’s real
GDP, grew 8.4% in Q1-Q3 2012, reflecting the strength of
government spending. Financial & real estate services, which
account for another 10% of Qatar’s economy, expanded 8.0% over
the same period.
The key oil and gas sector, which still accounts for more than
40% of Qatar’s GDP, grew just 1.5% in the first three-quarters
last year, reflecting the moratorium on new LNG capacity and an
almost 6% decline in crude oil production last year, compared with
2011.
We expect this trend to continue in 2012, with government
spending and investment underpinning growth of 5.2%. We
expect no contribution to growth from the hydrocarbon sector in
2013.
Inflation set to accelerate in 2013
Consumer inflation remained relatively low in 2012; we expect
average CPI reached 2.0%. This was largely due to housing costs,
which continued to decline on an annual basis through September
2012, offsetting higher services inflation. However, rents appear to
have picked up in H2 – rising 0.7% m/m on average between July
and November 2012. We expect housing costs to continue to
recover this year, pushing average CPI up to 4.5% in 2013.
Public sector credit growth remains robust
After peaking at close to 100% y/y in May 2012, public sector
credit growth has slowed through November, but remains at a high
level. Private sector credit growth has also slowed in 2H 12,
reaching 11.5% y/y in November, from 21.6% y/y in January 2012.
We expect to see private sector credit growth accelerate during the
course of this year, provided public sector borrowing continues to
slow.
In contrast, money supply growth has accelerated in 2H 12,
with M2 growth reaching almost 30% y/y in November. Quasi
money growth has recovered strongly, driven mainly by increased
FX deposits in 2H 12. Government deposits also rose in 2H 12,
most likely to fund public spending. We expect money supply
growth to slow off the high base and in-line with slower GDP
growth, reaching a still-high 15.5% y/y by December 2013.
Continued public sector spending is likely to underpin the growth in
money supply this year.
GDP growth
Source: Haver Analytics, Emirates NBD Research
Inflation
Source: Haver Analytics, IMF, Emirates NBD Research
Credit growth
Source: Qatar Central Bank, Emirates NBD Research
17.7
12.0
16.7
13.0
6.7
5.2
0
5
10
15
20
2008 2009 2010 2011e 2012e 2013f
% y
/y
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
Jan-11 May-11 Sep-11 Jan-12 May-12 Sep-12
% y
/y
Headline CPI
Food
Housing
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Jan-11 May-11 Sep-11 Jan-12 May-12 Sep-12
% y
/y
Public sector
Private sector
Page 10
Kuwait
2012 growth estimate revised up on oil output
We have revised our estimate for Kuwait’s real GDP growth in
2012 up to 6.0% from 5.3% previously. The change is entirely
due to higher than expected estimates for Kuwait’s oil production
last year. Bloomberg data shows oil output rose a massive 12.6%
over the 2011, reaching an average 2.8mn bpd. This is the second
year running that Kuwait’s oil production has exceeded that of the
UAE; prior to 2011, the last time that Kuwait produced more oil
than the UAE was in 1984.
But growth is set to slow sharply in 2013
However, the outlook for 2013 is less rosy. Our base case
scenario assumes that GCC oil production is unchanged this year,
and on this basis, growth will need to come from the non-oil
sectors.
In Kuwait’s case, political uncertainty and the stalemate between
the executive and parliament has hampered the government’s
ability to execute the budget and implement its economic reform
program, including much needed infrastructure investment. As an
example, government spending for the first 8 months of the current
fiscal year amounted to KWD 6.9bn, or just 32% of the full year
budget.
However, the political uncertainty looks set to continue for the time
being, with the Constitutional Court still to rule on whether the new
electoral system (introduced for the last elections in December
2012) is valid. Against this backdrop, we expect non oil growth
to be relatively modest at 4.5% in 2013, and overall GDP
growth to slow to 3.0%.
Inflation
We expect inflation to average 2.9% in 2012, down from 4.8% in
2011 on the back of lower food and housing inflation. In 2013, we
expect inflation to accelerate modestly to 3.5%.
Money and credit growth to remain modest
We forecast money supply growth slowed to 4.5% at end-2012
from 8.2% end-2011. Despite strong growth in M1 (cash in
circulation and demand deposits), quasi money growth slowed
sharply towards the end of last year. We expect M2 growth to
remain in single digits in 2013.
Private sector credit growth accelerated in 1H 12, before stabilizing
at just under 4% in Q4. Public sector borrowing continued to
contract on an annual basis from July-November 2012, as high oil
receipts negated the need for government borrowing, especially
when coupled with poor budget execution. Despite the central
bank’s efforts to boost borrowing, we expect private sector credit
growth to remain constrained until there is some clarity on the
political front.
GDP growth
Source: Haver Analytics, Emirates NBD Research
Oil production
Source: Bloomberg, Emirates NBD Research
Money supply and credit growth
Source: Haver Analytics, Emirates NBD Research
4.2
-7.8
7.9
5.7 6.0
3.0
-10
-5
0
5
10
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012f 2013f
% y
/y
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
Jan-11 May-11 Sep-11 Jan-12 May-12 Sep-12
mn b
arr
els
per
day
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
Jan-11 May-11 Sep-11 Jan-12 May-12 Sep-12
% y
/y
Private sector
Government credit
Page 11
Oman
2012 GDP growth higher than forecast
Official estimates put real growth at 8.3% in 2012, significantly
higher than our 5.2% forecast. Hydrocarbon growth was likely
higher than the 3.0% we had penciled in; Energy Intelligence
Group estimates showing average oil output in January-November
at 922,000 bpd, 4.4% higher than average 2011 output. However,
the official estimates imply non-oil growth of around 9% in real
terms, well above the 5.9% we had forecast for 2012.
…supported by expansionary fiscal policy
Government spending was likely a key driver of domestic
demand in 2012. Preliminary budget estimates show total
spending of OMR 13.0bn, 20% higher than we had estimated and
almost 30% higher than budgeted. The authorities created 36,000
jobs for nationals last year according to Finance Minister Balushi,
as well as spending on infrastructure and welfare programs.
Despite the overspend, the Finance Minister estimated a budget
surplus of OMR 1.0bn in 2012, as oil and gas revenues were
higher than projected. We estimate oil and gas revenues came in
at OMR 11.6bn in 2012, which suggests that ‘other’ revenues to
the budget increased sharply in 2012 (over OMR 2.3bn by our
estimates) compared with the average of the previous 5 years
(OMR 1.55bn). Some of this ‘other’ revenue may have been funds
promised by the GCC to Oman and Bahrain in the wake of the
Arab Spring.
We expect fiscal policy to continue to underpin non-oil growth
in Oman in 2013. The budget provides for OMR12.9bn in total
expenditure, similar to 2012. The budget assumes an oil price of
USD 85 per barrel for this year, and thus projects a deficit of -OMR
1.7bn. However, we expect oil revenues to be substantially higher
than this, and we forecast a smaller deficit of -OMR 440mn, which
should be easily financed through accumulated savings and/ or
loans.
Growth likely to slow in 2013
We have upgraded our 2013 growth forecast for Oman to
4.7%, from 4.0% previously. This adjustment takes into account
the bigger than expected budget for this year, which will contribute
to some 56,000 new jobs being created, according to the Finance
Minister. We expect oil production to increase by just 1% in 2013,
in line with government forecasts.
Inflation likely to remain broadly stable
Consumer inflation has averaged 3.0% in Jan-Oct 2012, lower
than 2011’s 4.0% average CPI. As the authorities are likely to
move to contain sharp increases in food, housing & utilities and
transport costs (which account for around three-quarters of the CPI
basket), we expect inflation to rise only slightly to 3.5% in 2013.
GDP growth
Source: Haver Analytics, Emirates NBD Research
Oil production
Source: EIG via Bloomberg, Emirates NBD Research
Budget balance
Source: Haver Analytics, Emirates NBD Research
13.1
3.9
5.05.5
8.3
4.7
0
5
10
15
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012e 2013f
% y
/y
820
840
860
880
900
920
940
960
Jan-11 May-11 Sep-11 Jan-12 May-12 Sep-12
Th
. B
pd
13.2
0.5
5.46.3
3.2
-1.3
-5
0
5
10
15
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012e 2013f
% G
DP
Page 12
Bahrain
Growth expected to slow to 2.8% in 2013
Bahrain’s real GDP growth in the first three quarters of 2012
averaged 4.4%, driven by the recovery in manufacturing and
growth in government services. These two sectors account for
more than a quarter of Bahrain’s GDP. Mining & Quarrying, which
accounts for almost 20% of Bahrain’s GDP, contracted for most of
2012. The financial sector, which also accounts for around 20% of
Bahrain’s GDP, expanded just 3% in the first three quarters of last
year. Although hotels and restaurants saw a substantial 28%
average growth in Q1-Q3 2012, this sector accounts for less than
3% of total GDP.
Looking ahead to 2013, we expect growth to slow to 2.8%
from an estimated 3.8% in 2012. Government spending will
likely remain a key driver of growth, as it is elsewhere in the
region. Bahrain’s 2013 budget provides for BHD 3.45bn in
spending next year, largely in line with our spending estimates for
2012. However, with oil prices expected to be slightly lower in
2013 compared with 2012, and oil production likely to moderate,
we expect the budget deficit to widen to around -5% of GDP this
year from an estimated -2.7% of GDP in 2012. We do not expect
financing the deficit to be problematic, as other GCC states have
promised substantial financial aid to both Bahrain and Oman over
the next decade.
Inflation returned to positive territory in 2012
Consumer inflation recovered from the low 2011 average of -0.4%,
which had been a direct consequence of sharply declining housing
costs in the wake of the political turmoil in Q1 2011. We estimate
average inflation in 2012 of 2.8%, as housing costs normalized.
Other components of the CPI showed little inflationary pressure,
and we expect CPI to average 3.2% in 2013.
Money and credit growth slowed in 2H 12
After a strong upward trend in both money supply and credit
growth from Q2 2011, the slowdown in both indicators in 2H 12 is
at least partly due to a high-base effect. We expect broad money
supply growth to slow to 5.2% y/y by December 2012, before
picking up slightly to end 2013 at 6.0%. We expect private sector
credit growth to slow to 7.0% by end-2013 from 9.1% at end-2012.
GDP growth
Source: Haver Analytics, Emirates NBD Research
Inflation
Source: Haver Analytics, Emirates NBD Research
Money supply and credit growth
Source: Haver Analytics, Emirates NBD Research
6.2
2.5
4.3
1.9
3.8
2.8
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
2008 2009 2010 2011e 2012f 2013f
% y
/y
-20
-16
-12
-8
-4
0
4
8
12
Jan-11 May-11 Sep-11 Jan-12 May-12 Sep-12
% y
/y
Headline CPI Housing Food
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Jan-11 May-11 Sep-11 Jan-12 May-12 Sep-12
% y
/y
Money supply
Private sector credit
Public sector credit
Page 13
Key Economic Forecasts: UAE
National Income 2009 2010 2011 2012f 2013f
Nominal GDP (AED bn) 953.9 1042.7 1243.8 1310.2 1362.4
Nominal GDP (USD bn) 259.9 284.1 338.9 357.0 371.2
GDP per capita (USD) 31697 34379 40208 41522 42329
Real GDP Growth* (% y/y) -4.8 1.3 4.2 3.7 3.8
Abu Dhabi* -5.9 3.0 5.0 3.9 3.7
Dubai* -2.4 2.8 3.4 3.2 3.9
Monetary Indicators (% y/y)
M2 9.8 6.2 5.0 3.3 6.4
Private sector credit 0.3 0.6 2.1 2.0 5.0
CPI (average) 1.6 0.9 0.9 0.7 2.5
External Accounts (USD bn)
Exports 192.3 211.9 279.3 303.8 314.0
o/w hydrocarbons 68.2 74.7 111.6 118.3 111.7
Imports 149.7 161.4 197.8 216.8 227.5
Trade balance 42.6 50.5 81.5 87.0 86.5
% GDP 16.4 17.8 24.0 24.4 23.3
Current account balance 9.2 9.1 33.3 36.2 34.3
% GDP 3.5 3.2 9.8 10.1 9.2
Fiscal Indicators (% GDP)
Consolidated budget balance -12.8 -2.2 3.1 4.7 2.8
Revenue 26.8 30.0 35.4 35.2 32.2
Expenditure 39.6 32.2 32.3 30.5 29.4
* Abu Dhabi’s real growth data are Emirates NBD estimates and forecasts. Dubai’s real growth data are sourced from Dubai Stat istics to 2011, with
Emirates NBD forecasts for 2012 and 2013. UAE real growth data are sourced from NBS to 2011, with Emirates NBD forecasts for 2012 and 2013.
Source: Haver Analytics, IMF, National sources, Emirates NBD Research
Page 14
Key Economic Forecasts: Saudi Arabia
National Income 2009 2010 2011 2012f 2013f
Nominal GDP (SAR bn) 1412.6 1693.5 2511.4 2727.4 2555.3
Nominal GDP (USD bn) 376.7 451.6 669.7 727.3 681.4
GDP per capita (USD) 14129 16384 23598 24881 22632
Real GDP Growth (% y/y) 0.1 5.1 8.5 6.8 5.4
Hydrocarbon -7.8 2.4 10.5 5.5 0.0
Non- hydrocarbon 3.5 6.2 8.0 7.2 7.5
Monetary Indicators (% y/y)
M2 10.7 5.0 13.3 9.5 9.8
Private sector credit 0.0 5.7 10.6 16.0 9.0
CPI (average) 5.1 5.4 5.0 4.1 4.5
External Accounts (USD bn)
Exports 192.2 251.0 364.6 395.9 380.7
o/w hydrocarbons 163.1 215.2 317.6 344.2 323.9
Imports 86.4 96.7 119.1 136.9 150.6
Trade balance 105.8 154.3 245.5 258.9 230.1
% GDP 28.1 34.2 36.7 35.6 33.8
Current account balance 21.0 66.8 158.5 170.3 135.5
% GDP 5.6 14.8 23.7 23.4 19.9
SAMA's Net foreign Assets 405.3 440.4 535.2
Fiscal Indicators (% GDP)
Budget balance -6.1 5.2 12.7 14.2 7.0
Revenue 36.1 43.8 49.6 45.4 45.5
Expenditure 42.2 38.6 36.9 31.3 38.5
Public debt 15.9 9.9 6.3 3.6
Source: Haver Analytics, Emirates NBD Research
Page 15
Key Economic Forecasts: Qatar
National Income 2009 2010 2011 2012f 2013f
Nominal GDP (QAR bn) 356.0 463.5 630.9 669.5 710.2
Nominal GDP (USD bn) 97.8 127.3 173.3 183.9 195.1
GDP per capita (USD) 59706 75034 98679 101176 103705
Real GDP Growth (% y/y) 12.0 16.7 13.0 6.7 5.2
Hydrocarbon 4.5 28.8 15.7 0.0 0.0
Non- hydrocarbon 16.6 8.3 10.5 6.8 9.0
Monetary Indicators (% y/y)
M2 16.9 23.1 17.1 27.0 15.5
Private sector credit 1.0 8.1 18.6 13.0 16.0
CPI (average) -4.9 1.6 1.9 2.0 4.5
External Accounts (USD bn)
Exports 46.9 79.1 113.3 114.1 109.6
o/w hydrocarbons 42.3 72.6 104.3 104.0 99.6
Imports 22.5 27.2 29.4 32.6 36.1
Trade balance 24.5 51.8 84.0 81.6 73.5
% GDP 25.0 40.7 48.4 44.3 37.7
Current account balance 10.0 33.5 55.8 54.4 49.2
% GDP 10.2 26.3 32.2 29.6 25.2
Total external debt 74.0 100.9 119.1 124.4 131.8
% GDP 75.7 79.2 68.7 67.6 67.5
Fiscal Indicators (% GDP)
Budget balance 15.2 2.9 8.6 10.0 7.4
Revenue 47.5 33.6 34.9 38.4 36.2
Expenditure 32.3 30.7 26.3 28.4 28.8
Source: Haver Analytics, IMF, Emirates NBD Research
Page 16
Key Economic Forecasts: Kuwait
National Income 2009 2010 2011 2012f 2013f
Nominal GDP (KWD bn) 30.5 34.4 44.4 48.3 49.6
Nominal GDP (USD bn) 106.0 119.9 160.7 172.3 175.4
GDP per capita (USD) 30.5 34.4 44.4 48.3 49.6
Real GDP Growth (% y/y) -7.8 7.9 5.7 6.0 3.0
Hydrocarbon -14.7 1.7 11.0 10.0 0.0
Non-hydrocarbon -4.0 11.1 4.5 4.0 4.5
Monetary Indicators (% y/y)
M2 13.2 3.0 8.2 4.5 6.5
Private sector credit 6.2 1.9 2.6 3.6 4.0
CPI (average) 4.0 4.0 4.8 2.9 3.5
External Accounts (USD bn)
Exports 54.4 67.6 104.1 118.4 108.4
o/w hydrocarbons 48.9 61.8 96.6 110.2 100.6
Imports 18.5 20.1 21.9 23.3 24.9
Trade balance 35.9 47.6 82.2 95.1 83.5
% GDP 33.9 39.7 51.2 55.2 47.6
Current account balance 28.3 38.3 70.7 83.0 71.4
% GDP 26.7 31.9 44.0 48.2 40.7
Fiscal Indicators (% GDP)
Budget balance 21.1 13.9 29.8 21.7 16.7
Revenue 58.0 61.1 68.1 60.4 57.0
Expenditure 36.9 47.2 38.3 38.8 40.3
Source: Haver Analytics, IMF, Emirates NBD Research
Page 17
Key Economic Forecasts: Oman
National Income 2009 2010 2011 2012f 2013f
Nominal GDP (OMR bn) 18.6 22.8 27.9 31.0 32.8
Nominal GDP (USD bn) 48.2 59.2 72.6 80.6 85.3
GDP per capita (USD) 16944 20362 24489 26661 27659
Real GDP Growth (% y/y) 3.9 5.0 5.5 8.3 4.7
Monetary Indicators (% y/y)
M2 4.7 11.3 12.2 13.4 11.2
Private sector credit 4.9 6.5 12.9 17.0 8.0
CPI (average) 3.7 3.2 4.0 3.1 3.5
External Accounts (USD bn)
Exports 27.7 36.6 47.2 50.7 50.3
o/w hydrocarbons 18.1 25.3 33.4 36.7 35.7
Imports 16.1 17.9 21.5 24.8 26.0
Trade balance 11.6 18.8 25.6 25.9 24.3
% GDP 24.1 31.7 35.3 32.1 28.5
Current account balance -0.6 5.9 10.3 9.4 7.3
% GDP -1.2 9.9 14.2 11.7 8.6
Fiscal Indicators (% GDP)
Budget balance 0.5 5.4 6.3 3.2 -1.3
Revenue 40.3 39.8 44.7 45.1 38.2
Expenditure 39.8 34.4 38.4 41.9 39.6
Source: Haver Analytics, Emirates NBD Research
Page 18
Key Economic Forecasts: Bahrain
National Income 2009 2010 2011 2012f 2013f
Nominal GDP (BHD bn) 8.62 9.67 10.90 11.35 11.86
Nominal GDP (USD bn) 22.9 25.7 29.0 30.2 31.6
GDP per capita (USD) 19472 20905 23108 23579 24174
Real GDP Growth (% y/y) 2.5 4.3 1.9 3.8 2.8
Monetary Indicators (% y/y)
M2 4.5 13.0 5.2 5.2 6.0
Private sector credit -0.7 6.2 15.0 9.1 7.0
CPI (average) 2.8 2.0 -0.4 2.8 3.2
External Accounts (USD bn)
Exports 11.9 13.6 19.7 20.4 19.7
o/w hydrocarbons 8.9 10.2 15.5 16.0 15.1
Imports 9.6 11.2 12.1 13.2 12.8
Trade balance 2.3 2.5 7.5 7.2 6.9
% GDP 9.9 9.6 26.0 23.7 21.9
Current account balance 0.6 0.8 3.2 2.4 2.1
% GDP 2.4 3.0 11.2 7.8 6.7
Fiscal Indicators (% GDP)
Budget balance -4.3 -4.8 -0.3 -2.7 -4.9
Revenue 19.8 22.5 25.9 27.2 24.2
Expenditure 24.1 27.3 26.2 30.0 29.1
Source: Haver Analytics, Emirates NBD Research
Page 19
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