GDP FIRST QUARTER 2014 › cms › assets › ... · showed weak performance recording declines in real value added of 18.9, 13.0,10.3, 3.8 and 1.3 per cent, respectively. Quarterly

GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCTFIRST QUARTER 2014

GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT FIRST QUARTER 20142

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GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT FIRST QUARTER 2014 3

This publication presents an overview of economic developments during the first quarter of 2014. Quarterly Gross Domestic Product (GDP) estimates assist in the analysis of short-term movements in the economy. The annual GDP gives an in-depth and comprehensive view of shifts in the economy. The quarterly data presented in this publication are based on the 2010 base year.

The GDP for the first quarter of 2014 recorded a growth of 1.6 per cent compared to a decline of 3.8 per cent registered in the corresponding quarter of 2013. The improved performance during the quarter under review was mainly due to the Construction, Wholesale and Retail trade and Transport and Communication subsectors that recorded positive growth rates in real value added of 22.0 per cent, 20.6 per cent and 11.9 per cent, respectively. Financial Intermediation, Education and Health sectors also recording increases in real value added of 2.8 per cent, 0.8 per cent and 16.1 per cent, respectively.

Despite the positive performance of these sectors, there were other sectors such as Agriculture, Manufacturing, Fishing, and Mining and quarrying that fared poorly, recording declines of 18.9 per cent, 10.3 per cent, 13.0 per cent and 3.8 per cent, respectively. Annualized average inflation rate for the first quarter of 2014 moderated to 5.1 per cent from 6.0 percent in the corresponding quarter of 2013.

I would like to emphasize the importance of accurate and timely delivery of data from our stakeholders in the private and public sectors to the Namibia Statistics Agency (NSA), on which the compilation of quarterly GDP depends. In this regard, I wish to express my appreciation to all data providers, to both institutions and individuals without whose assistance this publication would not have been possible.

DR JOHN STEYTLER STATISTICIAN GENERAL Windhoek, June 2014

Preface



PREFACE..................................................................................................................3

1 INTRODUCTION............................................................................................7

2 REVISIONS....................................................................................................7

3 SOURCES AND TIMELINESS...........................................................................8

4 KEY FINDINGS...............................................................................................8

4.1 AGRICULTURE AND FORESTRY................................................................9

4.2 FISHING AND FISH PROCESSING ON BOARD..........................................10

4.3 MINING AND QUARRYING......................................................................11

4.4 MANUFACTURING..................................................................................14

4.5 ELECTRICITY AND WATER.......................................................................16

4.6 CONSTRUCTION...................................................................................19

4.7 WHOLESALE AND RETAIL TRADE............................................................20

4.8 HOTELS AND RESTAURANTS...................................................................22

4.9 TRANSPORT AND COMMUNICATION.....................................................23

4.10 FINANCIAL INTERMEDIATION.................................................................24

Table 1....................................................................................................................27

Table 2....................................................................................................................29

Table 3....................................................................................................................30

APPENDIX 1 METHODOLOGICAL NOTES................................................................31

Table of Contents



The main purpose of the compilation of quarterly national accounts is to provide a more timely and frequent picture of current economic developments than the annual national accounts can provide. Quarterly data serves to determine the short-term movements in the series, while the annual data determines the overall level and

long-term movements in the series.

In principle, the only difference between quarterly and annual national accounts is the reference period. The definitions and conceptual frameworks, as well as the accounts and accounting identities of the 1993 System of National Accounts (SNA) are equally valid for both accounts. In practice, the constraints of data availability and resources mean that quarterly national accounts are often less complete than annual national accounts. The NSA has started the compilation of quarterly GDP at constant prices as a first step in embarking on full quarterly national accounts compilation.

Since quarterly and annual estimates are often based on different kinds of source data, the annual total derived from the sum of the four quarters under consideration differs from annual estimates based on more comprehensive source data. In order to make them comparable, quarterly estimates are benchmarked to their annual estimates.

2 Revisions

Revisions are part and parcel of a good quarterly national accounts compilation practice. Due to the availability of an improved estimate or comprehensive information, revisions are made to the estimates of the quarters in the preceding three years, and the practise provides compilers with an opportunity to incorporate revised estimates from data respondents, and hence availing data users with improved estimates, without introducing a break in the time series.

The revisions made in the fourth quarter of 2013 are outlined in Table 1 below. Based on the revised changes, the GDP figure for the fourth quarter decreased from 5.1 per cent to 4.9 per cent. These revisions are due to updated data received for the fourth quarter of 2013.

Introduction

Benchmarking is the process of combining time series of high frequency data with less frequent but more accurate data.

Table 1 Sectoral growth rate revisions for the fourth quarter of 2013

Sector

Agriculture -‐36.4 -‐30.7 5.7Fishing -‐6.0 -‐3.7 2.3Mining and quarrying -‐6.1 -‐7.3 -‐1.2Manufacturing -‐5.9 -‐1.9 4.0Hotels and restaurants 32.9 34.8 1.9Transport and communication 2.9 2.7 -‐0.2Financial Intermediation 26.1 14.3 -‐11.8Public Administration 35.2 27.9 -‐7.3Other private services -‐0.1 7.9 8.0FISIM 18.0 11.7 -‐6.3GDP 5.1 4.9 -‐0.2

Fourth quarter 2013 in per cent as recorded

Revised fourth quarter in 2013 per cent

Difference


3 Sources and Timeliness

The data sources for the compilation of the quarterly national accounts are quarterly economic surveys and administrative records of respondents. Quarterly GDP estimates are released with a time lag of 90 days from the reference quarter.

4 Key findings

Year-on-year, the GDP of the first quarter for 2014 recorded a growth of 1.6 per cent compared to a decline of 3.8 per cent registered in the corresponding quarter of 2013 (Figure 1). The growth was mainly due to improved performance in the following sectors: construction (22.0 per cent), wholesale and retail trade (20.6 per cent), transport and communication (11.9 per cent) and financial intermediation (2.8 per cent).

However, other sectors such as agriculture, fishing, manufacturing, mining and quarrying; and hotels and restaurants showed weak performance recording declines in real value added of 18.9, 13.0,10.3, 3.8 and 1.3 per cent, respectively.

Quarterly inflation growth rate

Annualized average-quarterly-inflation rate in the first quarter of 2014 slowed to 5.1 per cent from 6.0 per cent recorded in the corresponding quarter 2013 (Figure 2). The slowdown is attributed to the declines in prices of subcategories ‘housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels’; ‘hotels cafes and restaurants’ that recorded slower increase of 3.0 per cent and 6.3 per cent, respectively.

Figure 1 GDP growth in per cent

-‐6.0

-‐4.0

-‐2.0

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

16.0

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Percentage

GDP Growth rate


Figure 2 Quarterly Inflation rate

Figure 3 Agriculture Real Value Added growth rate

1The estimation of value added for the agriculture and forestry sector in the quarterly national accounts takes into account work-in-progress, changes in inventory, and gross fixed capital formation.

4.1 Agriculture and forestry

The agricultural sector1 is estimated to have contracted by 18.9 per cent in real value added during the first quarter of 2014 compared to a decline of 17.0 percent in the corresponding quarter of 2013 (Figure 3). The performance of this sector is attributed to the negative performance of livestock farming subsector that posted a decline of 33.6 percent in real value added, compared to a decline of 24.6 per cent registered in the same quarter of 2013(Figure 3).

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0


2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Perce

ntage

Quarterly Inflation growth rates

-‐80.0

-‐60.0

-‐40.0

-‐20.0

0.0

20.0

40.0

60.0


2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Percen

tage

Value Added Agriculture Value Added Livestock

Cattle marketed both live, export abattoirs and butchers declined by 51.2 per cent compared to a an increase of 73.8 per cent recorded in the corresponding period of 2013, given good rainfall experienced from December 2013, farmers are restocking their heads that was sold during drought situation of 2013, thereby presenting few livestock available for marketing to abattoirs and butchers.


Small stock export to abattoirs and butchers declined by 34.1 per cent compared to 25.4 per cent recorded in the corresponding quarter of 2013 (Figure 4). Even though small stock exported on hoof increased by 53.4 per cent compared to 6.9 per cent recorded in the same quarter of 2013, it was not enough to offset the negative performance of other categories.

4.2 Fishing and fish processing on board2

Fishing and fish processing on board is estimated to have contracted by 13.0 per cent in real value added during the first quarter of 2014 compare to a decline of 16.8 per cent registered in the same quarter of 2013 (Figure 5).

Figure 4 Number of livestock marketed, Volume index 2010 = 100

Figure 5 Fish and Fish processing on board Real Value Added growth rate

0.0

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

100.0

120.0


2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Numb

er of

Livest

ock Ind

ex 20

10 = 10

0

Cattle Small stock Pigs

-‐30.0

-‐20.0

-‐10.0

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0


2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Perce

ntage

Value added Fishing and fish processing on board

2The estimate of fishing and fish processing on board is based on preliminary figures because a complete set of data is still being awaited from the

industry.


Figure 6 Fish landings, Volume index 2010 = 100

The decline in the fishing sector is attributable to the demersal fisheries landings that registered a decline of 23.3 per cent in the first quarter of 2014 compared to an increase of 0.7 per cent in the same period of 2013.

However, mid-water trawling fisheries landings recorded an increase of 20.8 per cent when compared to a decline of 33.6 per cent recorded in the corresponding quarter of 2013.

4.3 Mining and quarrying

Mining and quarrying estimated a decline of 3.8 per cent in real value added during the first quarter of 2014 contrary to an increase of 13.3 per cent recorded in the corresponding quarter of 2013 ( Figure 7 and Figure 8).

The poor performance can be attributed to subsectors ‘metal ores and other mining and quarrying’ that registered declines in real value added of 25.9 per cent and 12.4 per cent, respectively. The declines in metal ores can be attributed to Zinc productions that recorded a decline of 12.7 per cent (Figure 11). The production of ‘Granite and Marble’ recorded declines of 66.4 per cent and 50.0 per cent during the period under review.

-‐

20

40

60

80

100

120

140


2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Volume inde

x 201

0 = 10

0

Demersal Midwater Pelagic Others


-‐60.0

-‐40.0

-‐20.0

0.0

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0


2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Figure 7 Mining and Quarrying Real Value Added growth rate

Figure 8 Total mining production Volume index 2010 = 100

0.0

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

100.0

120.0

140.0


2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Volum

e ind

ex 20

10=100

Total Mining Index 3 per. Mov. Avg. (Total Mining Index)

However, subsector uranium recorded growths of 2.9 per cent in real value added compared to the declines of 12.5 per cent in real value added registered in the corresponding period of 2013. The diamond subsector recorded a sluggish growth of 0.1 per cent in real value added compared to a strong growth of 40.7 per cent registered in the corresponding period of 2013.


Figure 9 Diamond production and sales in thousands of carats

Figure 10 Uranium productions– Short tons

Source: Ministry of Mines and Energy

Source: Ministry of Mines and Energy

-‐

100

200

300

400

500

600


2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Carats in th

ousand

s

Production Sales

-‐

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500


2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Short Ton

s

Production


Figure 11 Metal Ores Volume Index 2010 = 100

Figure 12 Manufacturing Real Value Added growth rate

4.4 Manufacturing

The Manufacturing sector estimated a decline of 10.3 per cent in real value added in the first quarter of 2014 compared to a decline of 0.9 per cent in the corresponding quarter of 2013 (Figure 12).

The decline in this sector is attributed to a negative performance in real value added of the following subsectors; beverages, basic non-ferrous metals, chemicals and related products, grain mill products and textile and wearing apparel. The subsectors recorded declines of 22.7 per cent, 2.4 per cent, 5.4 per cent, 4.7 per cent and 100.0 per cent respectively.(Figure 13).

-‐

20

40

60

80

100

120


2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Volume ind

ex 20

10=100

Copper Gold Lead Zinc Manganese

-‐15.0

-‐10.0

-‐5.0

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0


2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Manufacturing Value Added


Figure 13 Beverages, Chemical products and textile products Real Value Added

Figure 14 Diamond processing turnover - N$ thousands

Note, the graph for textile products stood at -100.0 per cent in Q1 2014. In order to improve readability, we have cut the graph at -30.0 per cent

The beverages subsector production decreased to 30.7 per cent compared to an increase of 14.3 per cent registered in 2013. Similarly, turnover for the chemical and related subsector slowed down to 6.9 per cent compared to an increase of 10.6 recorded in the corresponding quarter of 2013. Textile production halted to zero due to non-renewal of export contract of textile to South Africa.

Other subsector such as meat processing, leather and related products, rubber and plastic and non-metallic products performed poorly recording declines of 36.2 per cent, 10.2 per cent, 2.6 per cent and 24.0 per cent, respectively. The poor performance in meat processing is reflected in the decline of number of the livestock marketed to butcheries and export abattoirs.

-‐30.0

-‐25.0

-‐20.0

-‐15.0

-‐10.0

-‐5.0

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

40.0

45.0

50.0

55.0

60.0


2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Percen

tage

Value Added Beverages Value Added Chemicals products Value Added Textile products

-‐

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

160,000


2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Thou

sand

s N$

Diamond Processing Turnover


On the other hand, diamond processing, fabricated metals, other manufacturing n.e.c (not elsewhere classified) and publishing and printing recorded increases in real value added of 181.1, 22.7, 18.0 and 26.2 per cent, respectively (Figure 14 & 15).

Figure 15 Other Manufacturing n.e.c, Diamond processing, Publishing and printing Real Value Added

Figure 16 Electricity and Water sector Real Value Added growth rate

-‐80.0

-‐60.0

-‐40.0

-‐20.0

0.0

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

100.0

120.0

140.0

160.0

180.0

200.0

220.0

240.0


2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Perce

ntage

Value added Other Manufacturing n.e.c Value added Diamond processing Value added Publishing and printing

4.5 Electricity and water

The electricity and water sector estimated a decline of 0.6 per cent in real value added in the first quarter of 2014 compared to the growth of 2.6 per cent registered in the corresponding quarter of 2013 (Figure 16).

-‐20.0

-‐15.0

-‐10.0

-‐5.0

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0


2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Percen

tage

The poor performance in the electricity and water sector was mainly influenced by the water subsector, that recorded a decline of 7.1 per cent in real value added (Figure 17).


Figure 17 Electricity and Water subsectors Real Value Added

Figure 18 Units of water sold in m3

The decline in the water subsector was mainly due to a decline in consumption of water by mines and farming (irrigation), which registered declines of 12.7 per cent and 7.3 per cent respectively,(Figure 18).

However, the electricity subsector estimated a moderate growth of 0.7 per cent in real value added in the first quarter compared to 0.8 per cent in real value added in the same period of 2013 (Figure 18). The volume of electricity sales declined by 0.5 per cent during the period under review (Figure 20).

-‐20.0

-‐15.0

-‐10.0

-‐5.0

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0


2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Perce

ntage

Value Added Electricity Value Added Water

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

16.0

18.0

20.0


2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Units of

water so

ld m3

Stock drinking Irrigation Mines Human consumption


Figure 19 Sources of electricity in millions of KWH

Figure 20 Sales of electricity in millions of KWH

-‐

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200


2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Million

s of KWH

Own generation Imports

Source: Nampower

Source: Nampower

-‐

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800


2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Millions KWH

Distributors Mining Others


Figure 21 Construction Real Value Added growth rate

Figure 22 Real value of Government Expenditure on construction – NAD Million

4.6 Construction3

Real value added in the construction sector is estimated to have recorded a growth of 22.0 per cent in the first quarter of 2014 compared to an increase of 18.2 per cent registered in the first quarter of 2013 (Figure 21). The growth is emanated from the construction works for general government4 estimated a growth of 29.4 per cent compared to a decline of 37.1 per cent recorded in the same quarter of 2013 (Figure 22).

-‐20.0

-‐10.0

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0


2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Percen

tage

Value Added Construction

3For regional classification, refer to the methodological note at the end of this document.4The figure for the government expenditure on construction is preliminary and may be subject to change.

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400


2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Millions of N

$


However, the value of buildings plans completed have registered a decline of 29.5 per cent in the first quarter of 2014 compared to an increase of 47.6 per cent recorded in the same quarter of 2013.

The decline in the value of buildings plans completed is reflected in central, western and northern regions registered declines of 17.9 per cent, 19.4 per cent and 31.6 per cent (Figure 23). However, in southern and eastern regions nothing was completed during the period under review

4.7 Wholesale and retail trade

The wholesale and retail trade sector estimated a strong growth of 20.6 per cent in real value added during the first quarter of 2014 compared to a decline of 7.8 per cent in the corresponding quarter of 2013 (Figure24). The strong performance of the sector is attributed to the positive sales from the supermarket, vehicles and furniture, subsectors that recorded robust growth rates in revenues of 35.5, 33.9 and 23.2 per cent, respectively.

Figure 23 Value of buildings plans completed – Millions N$

Source: Municipalities and town council

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700


2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Million

s of N

$

Central region Western region Eastern region Northern region Southern region


Clothing and wholesale sales estimated rose with estimated growth in revenues of 19.4 per cent and 10.4 per cent, respectively.

Figure 24 Wholesale and retail trade Real Value Added growth rate

Figure 25 Revenue of Wholesale and retail trade – Millions N$

Source: Bank of Namibia

-‐10.0

-‐8.0

-‐6.0

-‐4.0

-‐2.0

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

16.0

18.0

20.0

22.0

24.0


2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Percen

tage

Wholesale, Retail Trade Value added

-‐

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000


2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Millions N$

Supermarkets Vehicles Others


4.8 Hotels and restaurants5

The hotels and restaurants’ real value added is estimated to have recorded a decline of 1.3 per cent in the first quarter of 2014 compared to a decline of 2.4 per cent recorded in the same quarter of 2013 (Figure 26).

Figure 26 Hotel and restaurants Value Added growth rate

Figure 27 Growth rate in number of bed nights and room nights sold

Source: Hospitality Association of Namibia (HAN)

-‐20.0

-‐10.0

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0


2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Perce

ntage

Value Added Hotels & Restaurants

The poor performance in the sector was caused by the decline in the number of bed nights sold that recorded a decline of 12.4 per cent. On the other hand the room nights sold performed well recording an increase of 5.3 per cent (Figure 27).

5

The figures for hotels and restaurants must be interpreted with caution as they are based only on HAN membership.

-‐40.0

-‐30.0

-‐20.0

-‐10.0

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0


2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Perce

ntage

Room nights sold Bed nights sold


Figure 28 Transport and communication Real Value Added growth rate

The positive performance in the transport and communication sector is reflected in the growth observed in Telecommunication, Freight by road and, travel agency and tour operators’ subsectors that recorded a growth of 33.3 per cent, 9.4 per cent and 7.0 per cent, respectively.

The performance in the freight transport subsectors is due to an increase of 25.3 per cent in the imports of goods, whereas in the travel agency and tour operators is a reflection of 25.3 per cent increase in the number of international and regional tourist arrivals. The telecommunication subsector, the performance is reflected in the minute used that increased by 34.2 per cent.

However, other transportation subsectors such as Railway transport, and Port services subsector recorded declines of 19.8 per cent, and 3.3 per cent, respectively.

4.9 Transport and communication

The real value added of the transport and communication sector have estimated a two digit growth of 11.9 per cent during the first quarter of 2014 compared to 9.3 per cent registered in the same quarter of 2013 (Figure 28).

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0


2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Perce

ntage

Transport Value Added


Figure 29 Cargo Handled in Thousands of Tons

Figure 30 Volume of Freight Transported in Thousands of Tons

-‐

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800


2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Numbe

r of cargo Handled

Landed Shipped Transshipped

Source: Namibia Port Authority

Source: TransNamib

-‐

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800


2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Tonn

age in Thou

sand

s

Rail Road

4.10 Financial intermediation

Financial intermediation recorded a slow growth of 2.8 per cent in real value added in the first quarter of 2014 compared to 14.4 per cent recorded in the same period of 2013 (Figure 31).


Figure 31 Financial intermediation Value Added growth rate

Figure 32 Banking and insurance Value Added

The slow growth was influenced by the banking subsector that registered a growth of 1.2 per cent in real value added compared to a strong growth of 14.6 per cent in the corresponding quarter of 2013. The insurance subsector estimated a weaker growth of 5.5 per cent in the first quarter of 2014 compared to 14.0 per cent in 2013 of the same quarter (Figure 32 & 33).

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

16.0


2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Perce

ntage

Financial Intermediation Value Added

-‐6.0

-‐4.0

-‐2.0

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

16.0

18.0


2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Perce

ntage

Value added Banking service Value Added Insurance & others


Figure 33 Deposits and claims

Figure 34 Public administration and defence, education and health Real Value Added growth rate

Source: Bank of Namibia

-‐10,000

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000


2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Million

sN$

Deposits by all sectors Claims by private sector Net claims by central government

4.11 Public Administration, defence and health

Public administration and defence sector estimated a negative growth of 7.3 per cent in real value added in first quarter of 2014 compared to the negative growth of 22.1 per cent recorded in the corresponding quarter of 2013 (Figure 34).

The Health sector estimated a strong growth of 16.1 per cent in real value added in the first quarter of 2014 compared to 4.1 per cent recorded in the corresponding quarter of 2013 (Figure 34).

The Education sector estimated a marginal growth of 0.8 per cent in real value added in the first quarter of 2014 compared to decline of 6.0 per cent recorded in the corresponding quarter of 2013 (Figure 34).

(60.0)

(50.0)

(40.0)

(30.0)

(20.0)

(10.0)

-‐

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0


2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Percen

tage

Public Administration and defense Health Education


Table 1 Quarterly Gross Domestic Product by Activity in Constant 2010 Prices - NAD million

Year Quarter Agriculture Fishing Mining and quarrying

Manufac-‐turing

Electricity and water

Construc-‐tion

Wholesale and retail trade

Hotels and restau-‐rants

Transport and com-‐munication

2008 1 1,005 588 2,110 2,508 636 874 2,018 360 8242 1,049 656 2,109 2,438 372 757 2,130 368 8183 773 574 2,331 2,649 403 635 2,233 260 8834 810 453 2,414 2,550 387 709 2,250 270 899

2009 1 756 839 1,116 2,501 511 781 2,080 234 9502 954 712 1,387 2,251 324 646 2,103 328 9593 910 616 1,183 2,324 294 495 2,193 418 9974 1,317 431 1,867 2,700 374 543 2,387 350 1,067

2010 1 1,048 656 1,543 2,589 552 726 2,109 219 1,0532 1,129 667 2,261 2,431 339 636 2,207 317 1,0343 1,002 630 1,774 2,573 328 538 2,437 443 1,0564 1,167 418 1,390 2,747 319 725 2,531 436 1,094

2011 1 972 714 1,724 2,452 559 868 2,243 238 1,0792 1,095 626 1,241 2,436 325 735 2,310 393 1,0793 1,005 725 1,713 2,613 350 657 2,484 523 1,1104 1,240 539 1,637 2,898 353 768 2,777 395 1,176

2012 1 1,112 911 1,569 2,688 687 896 2,554 343 1,1682 1,274 821 1,990 2,582 405 854 2,433 433 1,1723 1,032 827 1,913 2,445 399 665 2,500 552 1,2324 1,274 657 2,059 2,834 379 832 2,720 381 1,293

2013 1 923 758 1,778 2,664 704 1,058 2,356 335 1,2762 941 827 1,830 2,679 418 1,031 2,561 442 1,2703 682 914 1,928 2,660 376 1,081 2,731 600 1,3944 882 633 1,909 2,778 357 1,219 3,000 514 1,328

2014 1 749 659 1,711 2,390 700 1,291 2,842 331 1,428


Table 1 Quarterly Gross Domestic Product by Activity in Constant 2010 Prices - NAD million (Cont)

Year Quarter Financial interme-‐diation

Real estate activities and business services

Public admi-‐nistration

Education Health Other private services

FISIM All indust. at basic prices

Taxes on products

GDP at market prices

2008 1 994 1,716 2,569 1,369 682 552 304 18,501 1,227 19,728 2 1,025 1,744 1,767 1,358 433 553 309 17,268 1,276 18,545 3 1,065 1,781 2,221 1,472 530 553 325 18,039 1,413 19,452 4 968 1,825 1,850 1,514 547 553 267 17,732 1,466 19,198

2009 1 954 1,878 2,036 1,431 629 553 275 16,975 1,353 18,328 2 961 1,922 1,062 1,433 423 551 284 15,732 1,433 17,165 3 946 1,956 2,867 1,565 677 549 276 17,712 1,585 19,297 4 1,011 1,980 2,885 1,453 581 545 297 19,197 1,735 20,932

2010 1 1,074 1,996 2,030 1,546 764 541 312 18,133 1,410 19,543 2 1,083 2,010 1,713 1,266 512 546 301 17,851 1,484 19,335 3 1,061 2,022 2,413 1,459 767 562 281 18,783 1,755 20,537 4 1,093 2,032 2,944 1,602 488 588 291 19,285 1,988 21,273

2011 1 1,097 2,041 2,781 1,689 544 623 280 19,344 1,753 21,098 2 1,133 2,094 2,541 1,712 426 637 302 18,481 1,932 20,413 3 1,191 2,193 2,940 1,789 1,021 629 320 20,622 2,081 22,704 4 1,224 2,337 1,317 1,705 682 598 341 19,305 2,229 21,535

2012 1 1,253 2,527 4,012 1,791 646 548 350 22,355 1,826 24,181 2 1,262 2,668 2,010 1,661 551 512 368 20,262 1,683 21,945 3 1,285 2,760 2,085 1,705 755 494 371 20,276 1,665 21,941 4 1,300 2,804 1,747 1,997 876 493 385 21,260 1,742 23,001

2013 1 1,433 2,799 3,126 1,684 672 508 393 21,683 1,569 23,2522 1,437 2,796 2,117 1,654 775 520 409 20,888 1,706 22,594 3 1,461 2,794 3,254 2,121 752 528 419 22,858 1,883 24,741 4 1,486 2,792 2,234 1,948 878 532 430 22,059 2,060 24,119

2014 1 1,473 2,793 2,897 1,697 780 522 415 21,847 1,780 23,626


Table 2 Quarterly Gross Domestic Product by Activity in Constant 2004 Prices – Percentage changes

Year Quarter Agricul-‐ture

Fishing Mining and quarrying

Manufac-‐turing

Electricity and water

Construc-‐tion

Wholesale and retail trade

Hotels and restau-‐rants

Transport and com-‐munication

2008 1 -‐14.7 -‐6.6 -‐17.3 87.7 -‐17.5 39.2 7.2 35.2 11.02 -‐29.0 14.0 8.7 8.3 -‐3.0 29.3 3.6 45.2 6.23 -‐27.0 10.5 24.7 -‐25.7 2.2 7.4 2.2 -‐21.3 10.34 -‐29.1 -‐22.0 0.4 4.6 -‐9.1 -‐8.2 -‐4.4 -‐25.8 15.3

2009 1 -‐24.8 42.6 -‐47.1 -‐0.3 -‐19.7 -‐10.6 3.1 -‐35.0 15.32 -‐9.1 8.6 -‐34.2 -‐7.7 -‐12.9 -‐14.8 -‐1.3 -‐11.0 17.33 17.8 7.2 -‐49.3 -‐12.3 -‐27.2 -‐22.0 -‐1.8 60.7 12.94 62.7 -‐4.8 -‐22.6 5.9 -‐3.3 -‐23.4 6.1 29.8 18.7

2010 1 38.7 -‐21.7 38.2 3.5 8.1 -‐7.2 1.4 -‐6.4 10.92 18.4 -‐6.3 63.1 8.0 4.7 -‐1.5 4.9 -‐3.2 7.83 10.1 2.3 50.0 10.7 11.5 8.6 11.1 6.0 6.04 -‐11.4 -‐3.1 -‐25.6 1.8 -‐14.7 33.4 6.1 24.6 2.5

2011 1 -‐7.3 8.8 11.8 -‐5.3 1.3 19.6 6.4 8.5 2.52 -‐3.0 -‐6.1 -‐45.1 0.2 -‐4.4 15.6 4.7 23.9 4.33 0.3 15.2 -‐3.4 1.6 6.7 22.1 1.9 18.2 5.14 6.3 28.9 17.7 5.5 10.5 5.9 9.7 -‐9.4 7.5

2012 1 14.4 27.5 -‐9.0 9.6 22.8 3.3 13.9 44.4 8.22 16.4 31.1 60.3 6.0 24.7 16.2 5.3 10.2 8.73 2.7 14.0 11.6 -‐6.4 14.0 1.2 0.6 5.4 11.04 2.8 21.9 25.8 -‐2.2 7.4 8.4 -‐2.0 -‐3.6 9.9

2013 1 -‐17.0 -‐16.8 13.3 -‐0.9 2.6 18.2 -‐7.8 -‐2.4 9.32 -‐26.2 0.8 -‐8.1 3.8 3.4 20.7 5.2 2.0 8.33 -‐33.9 10.6 0.8 8.8 -‐5.6 62.6 9.2 8.8 13.24 -‐30.7 -‐3.7 -‐7.3 -‐1.9 -‐5.9 46.5 10.3 34.8 2.7

2014 1 -‐18.9 -‐13.0 -‐3.8 -‐10.3 -‐0.6 22.0 20.6 -‐1.3 11.9


Table 3 Quarterly Gross Domestic Product by Activity in Constant 2004 Prices – Percentage changes

Year Quarter Financial interme-‐diation

Real estate activities and business services

Public admi-‐nistration

Education Health Other private services

FISIM All indust. at basic prices

Taxes on products

GDP at market prices

2008 1 23.7 3.0 41.3 17.2 -‐14.4 0.6 17.4 11.9 13.8 12.02 25.8 4.3 -‐9.6 11.9 -‐11.7 0.7 21.4 3.2 6.0 3.43 18.4 5.9 97.0 9.7 -‐11.4 0.7 15.8 4.7 13.8 5.34 3.8 7.6 -‐29.3 5.5 10.0 0.5 -‐6.1 -‐5.2 5.4 -‐4.5

2009 1 -‐4.0 9.4 -‐20.8 4.6 -‐7.7 0.1 -‐9.4 -‐8.2 10.3 -‐7.12 -‐6.3 10.2 -‐39.9 5.5 -‐2.1 -‐0.3 -‐8.2 -‐8.9 12.3 -‐7.43 -‐11.2 9.8 29.0 6.3 27.6 -‐0.8 -‐15.0 -‐1.8 12.2 -‐0.84 4.4 8.5 55.9 -‐4.0 6.4 -‐1.5 11.2 8.3 18.3 9.0

2010 1 12.5 6.3 -‐0.3 8.0 21.3 -‐2.2 13.2 6.8 4.2 6.62 12.7 4.6 61.3 -‐11.7 21.1 -‐0.9 6.2 13.5 3.6 12.63 12.2 3.4 -‐15.8 -‐6.8 13.3 2.4 1.8 6.0 10.7 6.44 8.1 2.6 2.0 10.2 -‐16.0 7.8 -‐2.1 0.5 14.6 1.6

2011 1 2.1 2.2 37.0 9.3 -‐28.7 15.2 -‐10.3 6.7 24.4 8.02 4.6 4.2 48.3 35.3 -‐16.9 16.6 0.1 3.5 30.2 5.63 12.2 8.5 21.9 22.6 33.2 11.9 13.9 9.8 18.6 10.54 12.0 15.0 -‐55.3 6.4 39.8 1.8 17.4 0.1 12.1 1.2

2012 1 14.2 23.8 44.3 6.0 18.6 -‐12.1 25.2 15.6 4.2 14.62 11.5 27.4 -‐20.9 -‐3.0 29.3 -‐19.6 21.9 9.6 -‐12.9 7.53 7.9 25.8 -‐29.1 -‐4.7 -‐26.0 -‐21.4 15.8 -‐1.7 -‐20.0 -‐3.44 6.1 20.0 32.7 17.1 28.3 -‐17.7 12.9 10.1 -‐21.9 6.8

2013 1 14.4 10.8 -‐22.1 -‐6.0 4.1 -‐7.3 12.3 -‐3.0 -‐14.1 -‐3.82 13.8 4.8 5.3 -‐0.4 40.8 1.5 11.3 3.1 1.4 3.03 13.7 1.2 56.0 24.4 -‐0.4 6.8 12.9 12.7 13.1 12.84 14.3 -‐0.4 27.9 -‐2.4 0.2 7.9 11.7 3.8 18.3 4.9

2014 1 2.8 -‐0.2 -‐7.3 0.8 16.1 2.7 5.6 0.8 13.4 1.6


Appendix 1 Methodological Notes

System of National Accounts 1993:

The SNA 1993 is an internationally agreed methodology used for compilation of national accounts estimates published by the United Nations in co-operation with other international organizations. This means that the methodology, concepts and classifications are in accordance with the latest guidelines of an internationally agreed system of national accounts.

Quarterly GDP estimates:

Quarterly estimates of value added in real terms are less comprehensive and therefore need to be aligned to the annual real estimates. Short-term indicators are used to estimate the quarterly GDP. In terms of coverage, quarterly indicators are not as reliable as in instances where the results of annual estimates are used. Therefore, the quarterly estimates must be adapted to the independent annual estimates when such estimates become available. To this extent, the Proportional Denton Method is used. It is a technique that generates a series of the quarterly estimates as proportional to the indicator as possible subject to the restrictions provided by the annual data.

Classifications:

The estimates of value added by industry are classified according to the third revision of the International Standard Industrial Classification of all Economic Activities (ISIC), with suitable adaptations for Namibian conditions.

FISIM: Financial Services Indirectly Measured

Regional breakdown:

The following regions are represented by municipalities and town councils in respective towns that are surveyed by the NSA;

Central region: Windhoek

Northern region: Okahandja, Otjiwarongo, Outjo, Grootfontein, Tsumeb, Ondangwa, Oshakati, Ongwediva, Okakarara, Rundu and KatimaMulilo

Eastern region: Gobabis

Western region: Swakopmund, Walvis Bay, HentiesBay, Karibib, Usakos and Omaruru

Southern region: Keetmanshoop, Mariental, Karasburg, Nami≠Nüs (Lüderitz) and Rehoboth

P.O.Box 2133FGI House, Post Street Mall

Windhoek, NamibiaTel: +264 61 431 3200

Fax: +264 61 431 3253 | +264 61 431 3240Website: www.nsa.org.na

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GDP FIRST QUARTER 2014 › cms › assets › ... · showed weak performance recording declines in real value added of 18.9, 13.0,10.3, 3.8 and 1.3 per cent, respectively. Quarterly