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#GE15 & housing
#CIHSW, 17 April 2015
@BenM_IM
#CIHSW #GE15 @BenM_IM
Shhhhh!
Concept courtesy of David Orr
3
Here’s some proof…
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
Conservative Party Labour Party overall
Source: Social Market Foundation
Percentage of manifestoes devoted to housing
4
0
5
10
15
20
Jan2014
Feb2014
Mar2014
Apr2014
May2014
Jun2014
Jul2014
Aug2014
Sep2014
Oct2014
Nov2014
Dec2014
Jan2015
Feb2015
Mar2015
Apr2015
May2015
2014-15 2009-10 2004-5
14
9
5
But salience has been building….
Q1/Q2 What is the most important/other important issues facing Britain? [UNPROMPTED]
% mentioning housing
Base: c1,000 GB adults per month Source: Ipsos MORI Issues Index
GE (May)
(where no measure (x4 2009-10), previous month % continued)
5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Jan2014
Feb2014
Mar2014
Apr2014
May2014
Jun2014
Jul2014
Aug2014
Sep2014
Oct2014
Nov2014
Dec2014
Jan2015
Feb2015
Mar2015
Apr2015
May2015
2014-15 2009-10
38
10
And especially in key electoral battleground of London…
Q1/Q2 What is the most important/other important issues facing Britain? [UNPROMPTED]
% mentioning housing
Base: c1,000 GB adults per month, c100+ in London Source: Ipsos MORI Issues Index
GE (May)
(where no measure (x4 2009-10), previous month % continued)
6
And now this… 7
A new housing activism too? 8
Reflects ‘generation strains’… 9
Manifest in this… 10
But also ‘change anxiety’
Via (HT) David Gulliver
11
Our green & pleasant land
Source: Barney Stringer
12
This is a strong narrative
9
16
18
20
21
16
3/4 or more
Between 1/2 and 3/4
Around half
Between 1/4 and 1/2
Less than 1/4
Don't know
Base: 1,699 adults aged 16+, April-May 2012
Actual = 10%: http://www.neighbourhood.statistics.gov.uk
Source: Ipsos MORI/British Property Federation
Q. ‘Developed land’ is defined as…
What proportion of land in England do you think is developed?
13
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2010 2013 2014
% support % oppose % neither
Source: British Social Attitudes Survey
Britain for Homes? – the “decline of nimbyism”
24
14
Q. Would you support or oppose more homes being built in your local area?
Issues play out different locally, demographically, politically…
Base: 1,010 GB adults (telephone) 18+, 11-13 Jan 2015
103 MPs (face-to-face), 4 Nov-19 Dec 2014
‘Voters’ = say ‘certain’ will vote for party at general election
(291 Con, 256 Lab, 68 Lib Dem)
MPs; 45 Con, 45 Lab, 11 Lib Dem
15%
Con
MPs
76%
Lab
MPs
Lib Dem
MPs
34%
Con
voters
51%
Lab
voters
52%
Lib Dem
voters
Source: Ipsos MORI/CIH
% agree “There is a housing crisis in my local area
(public)/“…in my constituency” (MPs)
83%
15
Do issues matter anyway? 16
Base: 830 British adults 18+ giving a voting intention, 8 -11 Feb Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
0
1
2
3
4
5
Jan-8
7
Jan-8
8
Jan-8
9
Jan-9
0
Jan-9
1
Jan-9
2
Jan-9
3
Jan-9
4
Ja
n-9
5
Jan-9
6
Jan-9
7
Jan-9
8
Jan-9
9
Jan-0
0
Jan-0
1
Ja
n-0
2
Jan-0
3
Jan-0
4
Jan-0
5
Jan-0
6
Jan-0
7
Jan-0
8
Jan-0
9
Jan-1
0
Jan-1
1
Ja
n-1
2
Jan-1
3
Jan-1
4
Jan-1
5
Leaders
Parties
Policies
Q. If you had a total of ten points according to how important each of these was to
you, how many would you allocate to the leaders of the party you intend to voting for,
how many to its policies, and how many to the party as a whole?
But, I agree with Deborah
Pensions/ benefits
Europe
Foreign affairs/defence
Housing
Unemployment
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
0 10 20 30 40 50Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Base: c. 1,000 British adults 18+
What will decide your vote?
Health
Economy
Immigration
Education
17
Q. What do you see as the most/other important issues facing Britain today?
Q. Looking ahead to the next general election, which, if any issues do you think will be very
important to you in helping you decide which party to vote for?
Most important issues
Crime
Taxation
For vote decision – average of Foreign affairs and defence, pensions and benefits
Poverty/inequality
And housing is an ‘image issue’ too? 6 18
Four key drivers to an issue being ‘sticky’
Engagement ✓
Source: Sir Robert Worcester and Prof. Roger Mortimore (Ipsos MORI)
Explaining Labour’s Landslide
Differentiation ✓ Ability ✓ Will ✓
13 19
Is housing ‘sticky’?.....Probably not yet…
Engagement
Differentiation ✓ Ability ? Will
13
✓
?
20
Key question: will voting help to solve the housing crisis? 21
Housing – what next? 22
Image: Joe Magee
Key: don’t just know the audience, really know the audience 23
When you study the successful experiences of
transformative movements, you realise the key to success
is to achieve a connection between the reality you have
diagnosed and what the majority actually feels Pablo Iglesias (Podemost – the people’s party)
There are ‘perils of perception’ (and perils of misperceiving perceptions) 24
You – supply, Public – prices
Q. Which, if any, of the following do you see as the 2 or 3 most important problems
facing the housing market in Britain today?
Base: 1,009 GB adults 16-75, online, 10-13 October 2014 Source: Ipsos MORI/ JLL
House
prices are
too high
47%
Size of
deposits
31%
Lack of
social housing
30%
Not enough new
homes being built
20%
Rents
too high
28%
Too many people from
abroad buying homes
21%
Housing benefit
changes
14%
Banks not giving
out mortgages
15%
Stamp duty is too high
14%
Big homes
occupied
by 1 or 2 people
5%
Too many
second homes
13%
Not enough schemes for
renters to get on ladder
12%
25
Supply – the role of the public sector is going to be crucial 26
Political will (all housing is local) 27
N.B. not everyone likes disaster movies 28
A warning (in a silver cloud)
Source: Ipsos MORI
Base: 837 adults aged 16+ across England
13 March-1 April 2015
Q. To what extent do you support or oppose Government borrowing money to fund the building
of more affordable housing for people to buy or rent in England?
Base: 790 adults aged 16+ across England
13 March-1 April 2015
It is estimated by Cambridge University that England
needs to build around 240,000 new homes a year to
keep pace with demand. This number of homes has
not been built in any single year since the 1970s.
During this time, private house builders have never
built more than 175,000 homes a year.
% support Question asked with preamble
54
26 20
47
27 25
% neither support/oppose
% oppose
29
Amplifying the crisis
but building a positive
sense that things can
be changed
Position housing
as ‘enabler’ but still
distinctive issue
Housing’s retail offer:
consumer/citizen,
affordability/supply,
aspiration/responsibility
Making mixed tenure
housebuilding
popular – practically,
locally
1 Summary: tackling the “can’t change, won’t change” issue 30
Holding politicians to
account while
consensus-building
Renting’s stock –
springboard &
safety net
A little more politics to finish… 31
24
Q. I am going to read out a list of problems facing Britain today. I would like you to tell me
whether you think the Conservative Party, the Labour Party or the Liberal Democrats has
the best policies on each problem ….. Housing
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2001 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Conservative Labour Lib Dem Other None/Don't know
Our latest: no party ‘owns’ housing …
Source: Ipsos MORI Base: c.1,000 GB adults
%
32
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
Owners Mortgage Private renters Social renters
Con Lab LibDem UKIP
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor aggregate 2014 (vote share based on those ‘certain to vote’)
Support varies among tenures
% vote share 2014 aggregate
24
33
But it’s not just about Con-Lab swing any more 34
74%
‘Voting power’
x2.5 owner-occupiers vs renters
Turnout is another key element to this
Source: Ipsos MORI election
poll aggregates (GB) 2010
Estimated 2010
% turnout
Private
renters
Social
renters
66%
Mortgage
55% 55%
Owners
35
Too close to call...
Base: 768 adults aged 18-75, from Election Uncut Community, 27/03/15 to 29/03/15
Removed common English words, otherwise image shows unedited verbatims. Data is qualitative and unweighted
Source: Ipsos MORI/BBC Election Uncut Community
@BenM_IM
