GEC and RWS: BangladeshGEC and RWS: BangladeshINFORMATION NEEDINFORMATION NEED

&&RESEARCHRESEARCH

M. Anwar IqbalM. Anwar IqbalBangladesh Agricultural Research CouncilBangladesh Agricultural Research Council

BANGLADESHBANGLADESH

Total Area: 14.48 mha Population : 126m (2000), 190 (2030), 218 (2050) Flat Topography (30% <1m, 50% 10-12m) Coastal Zone: 36000 sq. km Coast line: 710 km Major cereal: Rice + wheat Affected Population by GEC: 25-30 million GHG emission from RWS: 790 Gj of CH4/16590 Gg of CO2

GEC and Bangladesh by 2030GEC and Bangladesh by 2030Sea level : 3 mm/yrRainfall: 5-15% Storm Surge and Cyclone: Sea Surface Temp: Temperature : 0.5-2°CCO2: Land loss: 20% with 1m SLR

Result: Saline water intrusion: 150 km

inland Expansion of drought area Drainage congestion Decline in R-W Suitability Displacement of Population Others

CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS FOR BANGLADESHCLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS FOR BANGLADESH

Year Sea levelrise (cm)

Temp °C Change inPrecipitation (%)

Changes inEvapotranspiration

(%)2030 30 + 0.7 in Monsoon

+ 1.3 in Winter- 3 in Winter+ 11 in Monsoon

+0.9 in Winter+15.8 in Monsoon

2050 50 + 1.1 in Monsoon+ 1.8 in Winter

- 37 in Winter+ 28 in Monsoon

+0 in Winter+16.7 in Monsoon

Source: World Bank Report on Bangladesh Climate Change, April 2000.

BANGLADESH: AREA BY LAND TYPE BANGLADESH: AREA BY LAND TYPE AND INUNDATIONAND INUNDATION

Land Type Inundationdepth (cm.)

Type ofInundation

% of TotalArea

F0 HighF1 Med. HighF2 Med. LowF3 LowF4 Very LowOthers

<3030-90

90-180180-300

>300-

IntermittentSeasonalSeasonalSeasonalPerennial-

293512

81

15Total 100

CEREAL PRODUCTION AND INTENSITY-2001CEREAL PRODUCTION AND INTENSITY-2001

Crop + Area ('000 ha) % of TCARiceWheatNCATCA

10466850

846513955

756.09

RICE AREA BY CROP SEASONRICE AREA BY CROP SEASON

Crop/Season % of totalrice area

Contributionin total yield

Aus (Rainfed + Irrig.)Aman (Rainfed + Suppli. Irrig.)Boro (Irrigated)

26%55%19%

18%61%31%

TVs MVs Total TVs MVs Total TVs MVs Total1970-71 9455 460 9915 14122 2246 16369 1.49 4.88 1.651971-72 8676 624 9300 11915 2673 14588 1.37 4.28 1.571972-73 8567 1065 9632 11112 3712 14824 1.30 3.49 1.541973-74 8332 1549 9881 11600 5894 17494 1.39 3.81 1.771974-75 8310 1444 9754 11513 5067 16581 1.39 3.51 1.701975-76 8780 1552 10332 13227 5521 18748 1.51 3.56 1.811976-77 8604 1280 9884 12909 4354 17263 1.50 3.40 1.751977-78 8826 1473 10299 14672 4381 19052 1.66 2.97 1.851978-79 8743 1701 10444 14148 4727 18875 1.62 2.78 1.811979-80 8164 1998 10162 12118 6597 18715 1.48 3.30 1.841980-81 8117 2194 10312 12863 7528 20391 1.58 3.43 1.981981-82 8137 2325 10463 12378 7645 20022 1.52 3.29 1.911982-83 7959 2630 10589 12199 9021 21219 1.53 3.43 2.001983-84 7920 2631 10550 12866 8788 21654 1.62 3.34 2.051984-85 7449 2777 10226 12257 9567 21824 1.65 3.45 2.131985-86 7529 2872 10401 12630 9819 22449 1.68 3.42 2.161986-87 7480 3132 10612 12440 10555 22996 1.66 3.37 2.171987-88 6990 3335 10325 11610 11396 23006 1.66 3.42 2.231988-89 6323 3904 10227 10166 13034 23200 1.61 3.34 2.271989-90 6147 4336 10483 11303 15348 26651 1.84 3.54 2.541990-91 5838 4602 10440 10384 16261 26645 1.78 3.53 2.551991-92 5389 4860 10249 9641 17601 27242 1.79 3.62 2.661992-93 6035 5056 11091 9412 17963 27375 1.56 3.55 2.471993-94 5900 4999 10898 8884 18045 26928 1.51 3.61 2.471994-95 5909 4973 10881 8130 16994 25124 1.38 3.42 2.311995-96 4750 5196 9946 8139 18260 26399 1.71 3.51 2.651996-97 4685 5497 10182 8318 19864 28182 1.78 3.61 2.771997-98 4557 5711 10267 7445 20707 28152 1.63 3.63 2.741998-99 3932 6188 10120 6393 23316 29709 1.63 3.77 2.941999-00 4086 6627 10713 7988 26440 34428 1.95 3.99 3.21

YEAR Area ('000 ha) Production ('000 Mt) Yield (t/ha)

Area, Production and Yield of Rice: Bangladesh

Area and Yield of Rice

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

1970

-71

1971

-72

1972

-73

1973

-74

1974

-75

1975

-76

1976

-77

1977

-78

1978

-79

1979

-80

1980

-81

1981

-82

1982

-83

1983

-84

1984

-85

1985

-86

1986

-87

1987

-88

1988

-89

1989

-90

1990

-91

1991

-92

1992

-93

1993

-94

1994

-95

1995

-96

1996

-97

1997

-98

1998

-99

1999

-00

Year

Are

a ('0

00 h

a)

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

3.50

4.00

4.50

5.00

Yie

ld (t

/ha)

Area_TV

Area_MV

Yield_TVYield_MV

Area, Production and Yield of Wheat : BangladeshArea, Production and Yield of Wheat : BangladeshYear Area (`000 ha) Production (`000 mt) Yield (t/ha)1975 120 120 1.001976 150 240 1.601977 170 270 1.591978 200 350 1.751979 240 500 2.081980 420 810 1.931981 600 1100 1.831982 550 950 1.731983 520 1100 2.121984 510 1200 2.351985 680 1490 2.191986 580 1090 1.881987 590 1100 1.861988 600 1090 1.821989 580 1050 1.811990 600 900 1.501991 600 1000 1.701992 560 1100 2.001993 630 1100 1.801994 610 1100 1.901995 640 1300 2.031996 640 1300 2.201997 710 1500 2.061998 810 1800 2.231999 850 1904 2.242000 790 1755 2.282001 773 1670 2.16

Area and Yield of Wheat

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001

Year

Are

a ('0

00 h

a)

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

Yiel

d (t

/ha)

Area (`000 ha)Yield (t/ha)

Projected demand of various food items (in million Projected demand of various food items (in million tons) for different income growth rate scenariostons) for different income growth rate scenarios

Food itemBaselineconsumption(1990)

Incomegrowthrate (%)

Year

2000 2010 2020 2030Cereals 19.99 2.0

3.025.2026.28

31.3733.86

37.4241.78

43.8350.62

Pulses 0.19 2.03.0

1.481.59

1.992.28

2.553.12

3.224.19

Sugar/Gur 0.38 2.03.0

0.550.62

0.811.01

1.151.64

1.642.68

Tubers 1.56 2.03.0

2.252.45

3.083.59

4.025.01

5.146.86

Vegetables 5.28 2.03.0

7.458.14

10.1711.68

13.3216.63

16.9522.62

Fruits 0.53 2.03.0

0.871.00

1.361.78

2.053.07

3.055.23

Edible oil 0.49 2.03.0

0.530.57

0.700.78

0.891.04

1.101.35

Source: Bangladesh Agricultural Research Council, Strategic Plan for Agricultural Research, 1995

Rice-Wheat Systems Coverage: BangladeshRice-Wheat Systems Coverage: Bangladesh

Systems % Land Type

Wheat-F-T.Aman 16% HL, MHL Others

Wheat-Jute-T.AmanWheat-T.Aus-T.AmanWheat-Dhaincha-T.AmanWheat-Mungbean-T.Aman

4%MHL,Part of HLand MLL.

Key Determinants Influencing RWSKey Determinants Influencing RWS

land types Drainage Rainfall/Soil Moisture Temperature Irrigation Socio-Economics

Change in area under different drought classes due to Change in area under different drought classes due to climate change scenario in dry winter and pre-monsoon climate change scenario in dry winter and pre-monsoon (Area in sq. km)(Area in sq. km)

Drought Climate Change Scenarios (CCS)Class Existing CCS-1 (%) CCS-2 (%)

Very SevereSevereModerateLess ModerateSlight

3638.698580.9532846.714571.243524.1

8636.1210873.5330380.519747.1743524.1

(+137.34)(+26.71)

(-7.50)(-33.10)(+0.00)

12219.6415302.7225465.2619814.2030359.82

(+235.82)(+78.33)(-22.47)(+35.98)(-30.24)

Note:Figures within parentheses indicate % increase (+) or decrease (-) in area over existing.CCS-1 is 2°C and CCS-2 is 4°C rise in temperature

R-W and Food Security

Effect of GEC: Yield loss, decline inSuitability

GHG from wetland culture

Complexcity of landmanagement/crop establishment

CO2 + Temp. rise influencing RWS

Fertilizer and water management

Adaptation Strategies- Priority Research- EST- GHG Abatement

Technology Transfer

Role of Govt./Institutions- Tech. Dev. fund- Adoption barriers

ISSUES OF RWS: BangladeshISSUES OF RWS: Bangladesh

Percentage reduction in production of major crops Percentage reduction in production of major crops from the existing level under two climate change from the existing level under two climate change scenarios over three levels of adaptation practicesscenarios over three levels of adaptation practices

Crop CCS-1 CCS-2HA MA LA HA MA LA

HYV Aus 6 10 20.7 11 20 38.9HYV T.Aman 2 8 15.2 5 18 36.2HYV Boro 2.5 4 10.6 4.5 10 21.2Wheat 15 25 54.4 2.5 40 68.6

Note: HA is High Adaptation: Improved technology and its wide adaptationMA is Moderate Adaptation: Farmers will be responsive and will adjust with the changeLA is Low Adaptation: Business as usual.

INFO. NEED FOR RWS POLICY PLANNINGINFO. NEED FOR RWS POLICY PLANNING

Change in R-W area & production

GHG emission factor for R-W (+ sink)- local & Global

Rainfall, Temp + others: GIS Database

CO2 Temp. Interaction effect

Land use change

Fresh Water Availability

Salinity intrusion

Degradation of landand productivity

RESEARCH DIRECTIONRESEARCH DIRECTION

Varietal/Genetic Improvement of R-Wo Heat toleranto Withstand waterloggingo Less water demandingo Sustainable yield

Vulnerability Analysis of RWS due to GEC

Mitigation/Management Options of RWS

Elevated CO2, Temp. and crop responsebehaviour

Emission/Sink of GHG thru` RWS

Fertillizer-Crop-Water Managemento IPNSo Irrig. Scheduleo Recycling crop residueo Crop restructing

Cost-Benefits of RWS under GEC

Water Pollution: As in GW. use in RWS

High Temp. & Rainfall influencing pest& disease infestation