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Document classification: Client/Third Party Confidential
HEARABOUT GLOBAL DAIRY TRENDS, DRIVERS AND
OUTLOOK FOR 2026
GENERAL SESSION
Tom BaileyExecutive Director, Dairy ResearchRabobank
Tough prices, disruptive change, growth?
Thriving in uncertainty
Global import demand has taken a step back in the face of the growing milk glut.
5
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
Qtr
1
Qtr
2
Qtr
3
Qtr
4
Qtr
1
Qtr
2
Qtr
3
Qtr
4
Qtr
1
Qtr
2
Qtr
3
Qtr
4
Qtr
1
Qtr
2
Qtr
3
Qtr
4
Qtr
1
Qtr
2
Qtr
3
Qtr
4
Qtr
1
Qtr
2
Qtr
3
Qtr
4
Qtr
1
Qtr
2
Qtr
3
Qtr
4
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Yoy
chan
ge
Year on year change in global import demand vs. exportable surplus
Demand SupplySource: Rabobank, USDA, GTIS
China has maintained pace of imports while others have stepped back.
6
Year on year import change – 3 months to Nov
Source: Rabobank, GTIS
Falling prices have taken a break from precipitous declines due to NZ drought fears.
7
-
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
USD
/MT
Butter SMP WMP CheeseSource: USDA
Intervention adds to pricing pressure, ensuring SMP price ceiling around $2,000/MT.
8
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
Jan-
15M
ar-1
5M
ay-1
5Ju
l-15
Sep
-15
Nov
-15
Jan-
16M
ar-1
6M
ay-1
6Ju
l-16
Sep
-16
Nov
-16
Jan-
17M
ar-1
7M
ay-1
7Ju
l-17
Sep
-17
Nov
-17
Jan-
18
EU intervention stocks by age
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
2,200
2,400
2,600
Jan-
16
Apr
-16
Jul-
16
Oct
-16
Jan-
17
Apr
-17
Jul-
17
Oct
-17
Jan-
18
Apr
-18
Jul-
18
Oct
-18
USD
/MT
European SMP price
Intervention buy price
Volumes currently on tender
Lowest accepted price on tender
Source: Milk market observatory, EEX
With pricing pressure trickling down to the farm, production growth will slow.
9
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Yoy
chan
ge
Actual Forecast
Milk supply growth from the big 7
Source: Rabobank
Global economy on the cusp for an uptick in growth.
10
95
96
97
98
99
100
101
102
103
104
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
1962
1963
1965
1967
1969
1971
1973
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
2017
Tota
l CLI
Glo
bal G
DP
grow
th %
GPD CLI
Significant upside in global economic growth as developing markets get back on track
Asian financial crisis Developing market slowdown
1980s recession
Source: Bloomberg
Even with some recovery, our midterm price remains below the 10 year average.
11
1,500
2,500
3,500
4,500
5,500
Jan-
05Ju
l-05
Jan-
06Ju
l-06
Jan-
07Ju
l-07
Jan-
08Ju
l-08
Jan-
09Ju
l-09
Jan-
10Ju
l-10
Jan-
11Ju
l-11
Jan-
12Ju
l-12
Jan-
13Ju
l-13
Jan-
14Ju
l-14
Jan-
15Ju
l-15
Jan-
16Ju
l-16
Jan-
17Ju
l-17
Jan-
18Ju
l-18
Jan-
19Ju
l-19
Jan-
20Ju
l-20
Price Forecast 10 year average
Global WMP prices and forecast
Source: Rabobank, USDA
1
1
1
2
2
2
2
2
2016 2017 2018e
Mill
ion
MT
SM
P
Global SMP trade EU stocks
NAFTA and other exogenous factors may derail the outlook.
12
NAFTA withdrawalAn EU stock release
2.2 mill MT
1.84 mill MT1.83 mill MT
Big 3 relative market access by exported volumes
Source: Rabobank, Twitter, GTIS, USDA
Investments along the dairy value chain – a US example.
13
Processor/ Coop Brands Distribution ConsumerRetail/FSDairy
Low margins and disruptors pressuring dairy supply chain
And investments are responding accordingly.
14
Brands Distribution ConsumerRetail/FSDairyProcessor
/ Coop
Foreign direct investment
A reminder of the markets we play in.
15
High Risk, 4%
Risky, 30%
Moderate Risk, 52%
Low Risk, 14%
Dairy exports by geo-pol risk
Source: Rabobank, GTIS, EIU
Conclusions
16
Imports have slowed in the face of rising global milk supplies
Prices have begun correcting to adjust supply growth
Demand should pick up in 2018, but not enough to absorb stocks
Low margins will precipitate consolidation and integration along the global dairy supply chain
As US supply outstrips demand more milk will be pushed into the global markets, and investors from around the world will be eyeing how they
might be best positioned to capitalize on the opportunity
HEARABOUT GLOBAL DAIRY TRENDS, DRIVERS AND
OUTLOOK FOR 2026
GENERAL SESSION