GeoCareer Futures: Myriad Opportunities,

Complex Pathways

Christopher M. KeaneAmerican Geological Institute

11 January 2007

Where we are today…

• ~50% of highest degree earners in geoscience do NOT work as a geoscientist

• ~50% of people working as geoscientists do NOT have their highest degree in geosciences

US Geoscience Employment1986

Academic7%

Government12%

Petroleum50%

Mining9%

Environmental7%

Retired/Unemployed10%

Other5%

AGI

US Geoscience Employment1993

Petroleum34%Mining

7%Environment

12%

Government12%

Retired/Unemployed23%

Academic11%

NSF

US Geoscience Employment2000

Petroleum

30%

Mining

8%

Environmental

14%

Government

16%

Academia

20%

Unemployed/Retired6%

Other

6%

AGI

US Geoscience Employment 2005

Oil43%

Mining12%

Other Services1%

Environmental8%

Exec. Management1%

Academia17%

Government18%

BLS

Student Attitudes and Careers2005

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

State

/Loca

l

Feder

al

Enviro

nmen

tal

Min

ing

Petro

leum

Academ

iaK-1

2

High T

ech

Gener

al B

usines

s

Continue

Educatio

n

Other

Outsid

e of G

eosc

ience

Inte

nti

on

Rat

e

AGI

Student Interest vs. Opportunity

• Hostility towards private sector– Source of bulk of opportunities

• “Environmental Awareness”– Student interest declines precipitously

• Preference for government– Little to no hiring growth

• 29% of students intend to look at “non-traditional” careers

Is there a regional difference?

• Petroleum– Sharply lower in the NE (27%)– Higher in Mid West (41%)

• High tech– Sharply higher in NE & West (10%)

• Business– Sharply higher in the NE (12%)

• Outside geosciences– Much higher in the NE (22%)

Petroleum Geoscientist Demand

Geologists, Geophysicists, and Engineers

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020Year

Pet

role

um

Geo

scie

nti

sts

(Th

ou

san

ds)

New Entries (3% Growth)

Current Workforce

Total Workforce

Demand

The Enrollment Rollercoaster1955-2005

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

4000019

5519

5719

5919

6119

6319

6519

6719

6919

7119

7319

7519

7719

7919

8119

8319

8519

8719

8919

9119

9319

9519

9719

9920

0120

0320

05

Ma

jors

Undergraduate

Graduate

Newly Minted Geoscientists

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

1973

1975

1977

1979

1981

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

B.S.

M.S.

Ph.D.

Female Geoscience Enrollment and Degrees

1974-2004

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002

Year

Per

cen

t F

emal

e

Enrolled

Graduated

2004

50

Race and Gender – the future?

• Gender– Females now dominate at the university– Geoscience second at attracting women– Industry discontinuing female

preferences

• Race– Minorities tend not to move for college – Few geo programs near minority areas– Lack of cultural continuity

Mean Salaries2005

•Geologists–Petroleum$107K–Mining $69K–Finance $84K–Consulting $68K–Academia $58K–Government

•Federal $86K•State $51K•Local $62K

• Hydrologists–Consulting $65K–Academia $57K–Government

•Federal $75K•State $52K•Local $63K

BLS

Common Employer Concerns

• Poor student preparation– Little or poor quality field experience– Too much specialization (e.g. Env.

Companies what geologists, not environmental science majors)

• Work ethic challenges– Little sense of professionalism– US new hire parochialism

• Business sense– What business sense?

Employer Perspectives – Oil and Gas

• The Labor Market– International workforce in “big oil”– Increased role of small independents

• The Solution– “Big Oil” will pay for what they need– Small independents try to hire away– Increased role of in-country staff

• The Sleepless Night Points– 50% of oil/gas geoscientists in 10 years are

not currently employed– Where will senior management come from?

Employer Perspectives – Mining

• The Labor Market– Very international workforce– Need to import labor– Poor capitalization dilemma

• The Solution– Closer cooperation with universities– Targeted cross-training of engineers

• The Sleepless Night Points– Whole subdisciplines are nearly extinct (e.g.

ventilation)– Balancing of exploration with development– Labor pricing pressures

Employer Perspectives – Environmental

• The Labor Market– Local offices, local licensure requirements– Labor supply is far below needs– Challenge of bringing new hires up in

billable hours

• The Solution– Hiring and promoting

• The Sleepless Night Points– Little industry coordination– Marginal field experience of new hires

Employer Perspectives – Others

• The Labor Market– Little hiring in academia and

government– Budget constraints make replacement

unlikely

• The Solution– Extended careers and postdocs

• The Sleepless Night Points– Fear the budget at all levels

The Future - 2014

• Geologists– 8.3% growth– V. low unemployment, high earnings– MS remains the optimal degree

• Hydrologists– 31.6% growth– V. low unemployment, high earnings– MS remains the optimal degree

• Geo Engineering– 1.5% decrease– V. low unemployment, high earnings– BS remains optimal degree

BLS

The Challenges

• Labor shortage is not unique• Budget shortages are not unique• Determining why we want majors

– Meet society’s needs– Framework for leadership

• Not losing the opportunities– K-12 is starting to rebound– Jobs are available– Bridging the gap from K-12 to major

Need Some New Thinking

• Attrition Math– 340,000 Intro Geo Students– 6,000 New Geo Majors Per Year– 2,700 New Geo BS Degrees Per Year

• Internal Competition– Are we fighting for other STEM students?– Are other STEM fields friends or

enemies?• How to meet needs in a Uni.

Environment– Divergent university and professional

demands