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Evening RoundupSeptember 12, 2019
European Central Bank's Interest Rate Decision @ 17:15 IST
A Daily Report on Bullion, Base Metals & Energy
Geojit Financial Services Ltd.
34/659-P, Civil Line Road,
Padivattom, Kochi – 682024
Day So Far
• Risk sentiments continued its broad recovery momentum on tacking the
trade friction which eased after some positive measures from U.S. and
China ahead of trade talks next month, coupled with hopes of further
stimulus move from European Central Bank later today in its meeting.
Major equity indices across globe stretched its gains. Global commodities
seen on mixed note. While on currency space, dollar index slipped
moderately ahead of ECB policy meet and inflation data from U.S.
• Precious metals gained back after recent rough days, however some signs
of de-escalation of trade tension and risk appetite limited its gains. Both
gold and silver gained around half a percent in London market. Gold spot
seen steady above $1500 an Ounce. While silver spot seen steady above
$18.
• Crude oil prices remained under pressure after a bleak demand outlook
created by OPEC in its forecasting of 2020 oil demand. Meanwhile positive
development in trade war and a significant draw in US inventory failed to
support the prices from correction. Both crude blends, WTI and Brent,
shed around half a percent. Meanwhile, OPEC and Non-OPEC ministerial
meeting set to meet today on discuss to any deeper production cut or need
of any adjustments in the ongoing pact.
• Copper and Nickel rallied in LME platform while rest of the peers traded
moderately. U.S. decision to delay tariffs on $250 billion worth Chinese
goods improved sentiments in industrial metal complex. In MCX, base
metals traded on positive turf.
MAJOR COMMODITIES IN MCX /NCDEX INTERNATIONAL PRICES
Last updated at 16:00 IST
GAINERS / LOSERS (MCX) INDICES UPDATES
LME STOCKRATIOS
Commodity Last %Chg Open High LowPrevious
Day CloseVol
Gold37882 -0.24 37898 37950 37788 37974 8648
Silver 47562 0.13 47430 47789 47290 47500 10952
Crude Oil 3942 -1.62 4019 4024 3938 4007 103584
Natural Gas 180.2 -1.8 182.7 182.7 179.7 183.5 17638
Copper 455.35 1.09 451.9 456.95 451.9 450.45 10654
Nickel 1267.5 0.96 1262 1284.2 1262 1255.4 25840
Lead 154.65 0.26 154.4 154.95 154.4 154.25 1911
Zinc186.9 0.27 187 187.65 186.25 186.4 6262
Aluminium 140.25 0.04 140.1 140.55 140.05 140.2 877
Commodity Rate % Chg
Gold ($/oz)1501.6 0.29
Silver (c/oz) 18.1847 0.58
Nymex Crude ($/bbl) 55.38 -0.66
Nymex NG ($/mmbtu) 2.52 -1.25
LME Copper ($/T)5879.5 1.72
LME Nickel ($/T) 18100 1.34
LME Lead ($/T) 2082.5 -0.17
LME Zinc ($/T)2362 0.3
LME Aluminium ($/T) 1817.5 0.06
Indices Rate % Chg
Dow Jones Fut 27201.0 0.21
CAC** 5614.4 -0.07
DAX** 12377.8 0.15
Shanghai* 3031.2 0.75
MSCI Asia Pacific index 158.2 0.963
Baltic Dry index 2366 -1.128
Dollar index 98.57 -0.08
Ratio5 Days Monthly 90 Days
Daily High Low High Low High Low
Gold Silver ratio79.63 80.58 79.63 88.26 79.34 92.75 79.34
Gold Crude ratio152.82 152.82 146.51 166.88 145.37 166.88 113.57
Lead Zinc ratio0.83 0.84 0.83 0.86 0.80 0.86 0.66
Steel Nickel ratio44.47 45.69 44.38 45.82 36.65 45.82 26.36
Lead Aluminium ratio1.10 1.11 1.10 1.14 1.09 1.15 0.99
79.63 grams of Silver is required to buy one gram of Gold
152.82 liters of Crude is required to buy one gram of Gold
0.83 kg of Zinc is required to buy one Kg of Lead
44.47 kg of Steel is required to buy one Kg of Nickel
1.10 kg of Aluminium is required to buy one Kg of Lead
Net
change
Warrant
change
Tonnage
ratio
Copper-5475 5425 23.82
Aluminium-2375 1775 22.64
Nickel-252 -5466 50.37
Zinc-475 225 36.81
Lead-125 100 8.08
ECONOMIC DATA
Time Country Importance Event Forecast Previous
Monday, September 9, 2019
5:20 Japan High GDP (YoY) (Q2) 1.30% 1.80%
5:20 Japan High GDP (QoQ) (Q2) 0.30% 0.70%
14:00 UK Moderate GDP (QoQ) -0.10% -0.20%
14:00 UK Moderate GDP (MoM) 0.00%
19:30 US Moderate CB Employment Trends Index (Aug) 111
Tuesday, September 10, 2019
All Day Holiday India - Moharram
0:30 US Moderate Consumer Credit (Jul) 16.00B 14.60B
7:00 China Very High CPI (YoY) (Aug) 2.60% 2.80%
7:00 China Very High CPI (MoM) (Aug) 0.50% 0.40%
Wednesday, September 11, 2019
2:00 US High API Weekly Crude Oil Stock 0.401M
16:30 US Low MBA Mortgage Applications (WoW) -3.10%
16:30 US High OPEC Monthly Report
18:00 US Moderate PPI (MoM) (Aug) 0.10% 0.20%
18:00 US Moderate PPI (YoY) (Aug) 1.70% 1.70%
19:30 US Moderate Wholesale Inventories (MoM) 0.20% 0.00%
20:00 US Very High Crude Oil Inventories -2.488M -4.771M
20:00 US Very High EIA Weekly Distillates Stocks 0.484M -2.538M
20:00 US Very High Gasoline Inventories -1.523M -2.396M
Thursday, September 12, 2019
Tentative China High Trade Balance (US) 45.06B
14:30 Euro-Zone Moderate Industrial Production (MoM) (Jul) 0.10% -1.60%
14:30 Euro-Zone Moderate Industrial Production (YoY) (Jul) -1.30% -2.60%
15:30 US Very High OPEC Meeting
17:15 Euro-Zone Very High ECB Interest Rate Decision (Sep) 0.00% 0.00%
17:30 INR Moderate CPI (YoY) (Aug) 3.30% 3.15%
17:30 INR High Industrial Production (YoY) (Jul) 2.30% 2.00%
17:30 INR High Manufacturing Output (MoM) (Jul) 1.20%
18:00 US Moderate Continuing Jobless Claims 1,685K 1,662K
18:00 US High CPI (YoY) (Aug) 1.80% 1.80%
18:00 US High CPI (MoM) (Aug) 0.10% 0.30%
18:00 US Moderate Initial Jobless Claims 219K 217K
18:00 Euro-Zone High ECB President Draghi Speaks
18:00 Euro-Zone Very High ECB Press Conference
20:00 US High Natural Gas Storage 82B 84B
Friday, September 13, 2019
All Day Holiday China - Mid-Autumn Festival
10:00 Japan Moderate Capacity Utilization (MoM) (Jul) -2.60%
10:00 Japan Moderate Industrial Production (MoM) (Jul) 1.30%
14:30 Euro-Zone Moderate Trade Balance (Jul) 20.6B
18:00 US High Retail Sales (MoM) (Aug) 0.20% 0.70%
18:00 US High Retail Sales (YoY) (Aug) 3.45%
19:30 US High Business Inventories (MoM) (Jul) 0.20% 0.00%
19:30 US High Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Sep) 90.5 89.8
BULLION
GOLD M
MCX Oct
Intra Day
Near Term
Technical Levels
R3 40220
R2 39700/39980
R1 38680/38900/39490
Turnaround 38300
S1 37670/37400
S2 37120
S3 36870
Technical Commentary
A major price recovery may re-establish only above the Bollinger middle band
level of 38300. Which if remained unbroken may grab prices lower to 37670
then to 37400
Technical Levels
R3 51400/51890
R2 49800/50480
R1 48790/49220
Turnaround 48200-47200
S1 46870/46600
S2 45830
S3 45400
Technical Commentary
Prices expect to trade within the trading range of 48200-47200. A firm move
which breaks either side of the above recommended region could set the
directional move.
SILVER M
MCX Nov
Intra Day
Near Term
NATURAL GAS
MCX Sep
Intra Day
Near Term
CRUDEOIL
MCX Sep
Intra Day
Near Term
ENERGY
Technical Levels
R3 4230
R2 4095/4167
R1 3998/4048
Turnaround 3910
S1 3880/3825
S2 3910/3885
S3 3825/3750/3670
Technical Commentary
By breaking the level of 3910 could push prices lower the immediate price
objective of 3880 then to Bollinger lower band level of 3825 region. Inability
to mark trades below 3910 could lift prices higher 3998 then to 4048.
Technical Levels
R3 195.40/205.80
R2 190.90/194.30
R1 183.60/186/189.80
Turnaround 179
S1 176.80//174.60
S2 171.50
S3 170.20
Technical Commentary
Prices have been approaching towards the internal trend line hindrance of
179 region. Which if remained untouched could anticipate a recovery move
towards the upside 183.60 followed by 186.
NICKEL
MCX Sep
Intra Day
Near Term
COPPER
MCX Sep
Intra Day
Near Term
BASE METALS
Technical Levels
R3 467/471
R2 463.50
R1 461.20
Turnaround 457.80
S1 452.80/449.40
S2 447.30/444.40
S3 442/438.40
Technical Commentary
Sturdy trades above 457.80 may lift prices further to 461.20 or even higher.
Failed to sustain above the Bollinger upper band level of 457.80 may squeeze
down prices lower 452.80 then to 449.40.
Technical Levels
R3 1365
R2 1334
R1 1302/1314
Turnaround 1286
S1 1250/1222/1204
S2 1190/1152/1121
S3 1103/1096
Technical Commentary
Rise above the hindrance of 1286 could boost prices higher towards 1302
firstly then to 1314 region. But there is equal plausible chance of long
liquidation move if prices failed to crack 1286 and such weakening trade
may find support at 1250.
Zinc M
MCX Sep
Intra Day
Near Term
Lead M
MCX Sep
Intra Day
Near Term
BASE METALS
Technical Levels
R3 193.20/194.40
R2 192
R1 188.60/190.20
Turnaround 187.70
S1 185.60/183.90
S2 182.30/180.20
S3 178.50/176.80
Technical Levels
R3 160.40
R2 158.40/159.20
R1 156.50/157.20
Turnaround 153.70
S1 152.90/151.30
S2 149.80
S3 148.50
Technical Commentary
Solid trades above the EMA level of 187.70 could lift prices higher. Else hold
the same for a weak bias towards 185.60 then to 183.90.
Technical Commentary
Prices still in a congestion region with lack of directive trades. However
slippage trades below the 153.70 may grab prices lower to Bollinger lower
band level of 152.90 followed by 151.50. Botched effort to win below 153.70
could push prices higher.
Alumini
MCX Sep
Intra Day
Near Term
BASE METALS
Technical Levels
R3 143.50/144.80
R2 142.40
R1 141.60
Turnaround 141.40
S1 139.30/138.60
S2 137.70/134.90
S3 133.40/131.30
Technical Commentary
Determined trades above the sloping trend line resistance of 141.40 could boost
prices higher. Inability to succeed above the same could call a long liquidation
move towards the EMA level of 139.30 region.
Buying
sentiment/
Bullish
Selling
sentiment/
Bearish
Neutral/
sideways
S1/S2/S3 -Support level – Price points where buying pressure thought to be strong enough to counter selling
pressure.
R1/R2/R3 -Resistance level – – Price points where selling pressure thought to be strong enough to counter
buying pressure.
GENERAL DISCLOSURES & DISCLAIMERS:
CERTIFICATION
I, Krishna prasad N.B, an employee of Geojit Financial Services Limited (GFSL), authors of this report, hereby
certify that all the views expressed in this research report (report) reflect our personal views about any or all
of the subject issuer or securities/ commodities.
DISCLAIMER
This report has been prepared by GFSL and the report & its contents are the exclusive property of GFSL and the
recipient cannot tamper with the report or its contents in any manner and the said report, shall in no case, be
further distributed to any third party for commercial use, with or without consideration.
GFSL has taken steps to ensure that facts in this report are based on reliable information but cannot testify,
nor make any representation or warranty, express or implied, to the accuracy, contents or data contained
within this report. It is hereby confirmed that wherever GFSL has employed a rating system in this report, the
rating system has been clearly defined including the time horizon and benchmarks on which the rating is based.
Descriptions of any Commodity or Commodities mentioned herein are not intended to be complete and this
report is not, and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer, to buy or sell any commodity
or other financial instruments. GFSL has not taken any steps to ensure that the commodity/(ies) referred to in
this report are suitable for any particular investor. This Report is not to be relied upon in substitution for the
exercise of independent judgment. Opinions or estimates expressed are current opinions as of the original
publication date appearing on this Report and the information, including the opinions and estimates contained
herein, are subject to change without notice. GFSL is under no duty to update this report from time to time.
RISK DISCLOSURE
Geojit Financial Services Limited and/or its Affiliates and its officers, directors and employees including the
analyst/authors shall not be in any way be responsible for any loss or damage that may arise to any person from
any inadvertent error in the information contained in this report. Investors may lose his/her entire investment
under certain market conditions so before acting on any advice or recommendation in these material, investors
should consider whether it is suitable for their particular circumstances and, if necessary, seek professional
advice. This report does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial
situation/circumstances and the particular needs of any specific person who may receive this document. The
user assumes the entire risk of any use made of this information. Each recipient of this report should make
such investigation as it deems necessary to arrive at an independent evaluation of an investment in the
Commodity/(ies) referred to in this report (including the merits and risks involved). The price, volume and
income of the investments referred to in this report may fluctuate and investors may realize losses that may
exceed their original capital.
The investments or services contained or referred to in this report may not be suitable for all equally and it is
recommended that an independent investment advisor be consulted. In addition, nothing in this report
constitutes investment, legal, accounting or tax advice or a representation that any investment or strategy is
suitable or appropriate to individual circumstances or otherwise constitutes a personal recommendation of
GFSL.
REGULATORY DISCLOSURES:
Geojit Financial Services Limited’s Associates consists of companies such as Geojit Technologies Private Limited
(GTPL- Software Solutions provider), Geojit Credits Private Limited (GCPL- NBFC Services provider), Geojit
Investment Services Limited (GISL- Corporate Agent for Insurance products), Geojit Financial Management
Services Private Limited (GFMSL) & Geojit Financial Distribution Private Limited (GFDPL), (Distributors of
Insurance and MF Units). In the context of the SEBI Regulations on Research Analysts (2014), Geojit Financial
Services Limited affirms that we are a SEBI registered Research Entity and we issue research reports /research
analysis etc that are prepared by our Research Analysts. We also affirm and undertake that no disciplinary
action has been taken against us or our Analysts in connection with our business activities.
In compliance with the above mentioned SEBI Regulations, the following additional disclosures are also
provided which may be considered by the reader before making an investment decision:
1. Disclosures regarding Ownership:
GFSL confirms that:
It/its associates have no financial interest or any other material conflict in relation to the subject Commodity
futures covered herein at the time of publication of this report.
Further, the Research Analyst confirms that:
He, his associates and his relatives have no financial interest in the subject Commodity futures covered herein,
and they have no other material conflict in the subject Commodity at the time of publication of this report.
2. Disclosures regarding Compensation:
During the past 12 months, GFSL or its Associates have not received any compensation or other benefits from
any entity/ third party in connection with the Commodity futures mentioned in this report.
3. Disclosure regarding the Research Analyst’s connection with the Commodity futures:
It is affirmed that I, Krishna prasad N.B, employed as Research Analyst by GFSL and engaged in the preparation
of this report have no substantial ownership or financial interest over any Commodity futures mentioned in the
report.
4. Disclosure regarding Market Making activity:
Neither GFSL nor its Research Analysts have engaged in market making activities for the subject Commodity
futures.
Copyright in this report vests exclusively with GFSL
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