Evening Roundup09 September 2020

A Daily Report on Bullion, Base Metals & Energy

Geojit Financial Services Ltd.

34/659-P, Civil Line Road,

Padivattom, Kochi – 682024

Day So far

• Market sentiments remained subdued by tailing weak cues from Wall Streetovernight and delaying the covid-19 vaccine trails. Asian equities slipped lower,while China’s benchmark equity index slipped significantly amid US-China tradefrictions and weak factory inflation from China that fell to the slowest rate in 5months. Meanwhile, European stocks seen on a positive note ahead ofEuropean central bank policy decision tomorrow. Whereas commodities ondomestic future market seen under pressure except crude oil. Meanwhile,Dollar index moved near to four week high against the basket of currencies.

• Precious metals moved little as market players awaits for the policy strategiesfrom Euro zone central bank. Bullion in international market still seen trading inthe previous sessions trading range. Meanwhile, MCX precious metals tickedlower on firmer domestic currency.

• Crude oil prices gained back some of its previous session losses, however, risingsupplies and hopes of slower recovery in fuel demand weighed on broadsentiments. Both WTI and Brent gained above 1.00 percent, while official crudeinventory from US EIA is rescheduled for tomorrow.

• Base metals futures slipped on MCX platform, while industrial metals onShanghai platform tumbled down. Where Nickel, Lead and Zinc shed more than2.00 percent on fall in China’s industrial profits and rising tension between USand China.

No Major US Economic Data For Today

MAJOR COMMODITIES IN MCX /NCDEX INTERNATIONAL PRICES

Last updated at 16:00 IST

GAINERS / LOSERS (MCX) INDICES UPDATES

RATIOS

Commodity Last %Chg Open High LowPrevious

Day CloseVol

Gold51045 -0.6 51165 51231 51011 51353 4415

Silver 67717 -1.13 68056 68186 67556 68494 6626

Crude Oil 2759 2 2698 2768 2675 2705 35570

Natural Gas 176.4 -2.27 178.2 178.2 173.3 180.5 56605

Copper 521.65 -0.39 523.2 524.7 519.6 523.7 8416

Nickel 1093.4 -1.13 1102.5 1102.5 1089.1 1105.9 4745

Lead 149 -0.53 149.95 149.95 148.6 149.8 1420

Zinc 187.9 -0.66 190 190 187 189.15 4838

Aluminium 144.95 -0.85 146.1 146.15 144.65 146.2 1402

Commodity Rate % Chg

Gold ($/oz)1926.58 -0.23

Silver (c/oz) 26.6048 -0.38

Nymex Crude ($/bbl) 37.54 2.12

Nymex NG ($/mmbtu) 2.379 -0.88

SHFE Copper (CNY/T)51800 -1.26

SHFE Nickel (CNY/T) 115340 -2.86

SHFE Lead (CNY/T) 15240 -2.18

SHFE Zinc (CNY/T)19315 -2.84

SHFE Aluminium

(CNY/T) 14500 -0.75

Indices Rate % Chg

Dow Jones Fut 27709.0 0.67

CAC**5012.3 0.78

DAX** 13101.3 1.02

Shanghai* 3254.6 -1.86

MSCI Asia Pacific index 170.9 0.089

Baltic Dry index 1328 -1.557

Dollar index 93.57 0.13

Ratio

5 Days Monthly 90 Days

Daily High Low High Low High Low

Gold Silver ratio75.38 78.41 74.80 84.79 72.88 107.04 72.88

Gold Crude ratio294.68 301.83 265.02 301.83 250.97 400.16 247.39

Lead Zinc ratio0.79 0.79 0.79 0.82 0.77 0.92 0.77

Lead Aluminium ratio1.03 1.06 1.02 1.08 1.02 1.12 1.00

75.38 grams of Silver is required to buy one gram of Gold

294.68 liters of Crude is required to buy one gram of Gold

0.79 kg of Zinc is required to buy one Kg of Lead

1.03 kg of Aluminium is required to buy one Kg of Lead

ECONOMIC DATA

Time Country Importance Event Actual Forecast Previous

Monday, September 7, 2020

All Day Holiday United States - Labor Day

8:30 China Moderate Exports (YoY) (Aug) 9.5% 7.10% 7.20%

8:30 China Moderate Imports (YoY) (Aug) -2.1% 0.10% -1.40%

8:30 China High Trade Balance (USD) (Aug) 58/93B 50.50B 62.33B

12:30 China Moderate FX Reserves (USD) 3.176T 3.154T

14:00 Euro Moderate Sentix Investor Confidence (Sep) -10.5 -13.4

Tuesday, September 8, 2020

14:30 Euro High GDP (YoY) (Q2) -14.7% -15.00% -15.00%

14:30 Euro High GDP (QoQ) (Q2) -11.8% -12.10% -12.10%

19:30 US Low CB Employment Trends Index (Aug) 50.89

19:30 US Low IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism 46.8

Wednesday, September 9, 2020

7:00 China High CPI (MoM) (Aug) 0.40% 0.60%

7:00 China High CPI (YoY) (Aug) 2.40% 2.70%

7:00 China Moderate PPI (YoY) (Aug) -2.00% -2.40%

16:30 US Moderate MBA Mortgage Applications (WoW) -2.00%

17:30 US Moderate EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook

20:00 US Moderate Cushing Crude Oil Inventories 0.110M

Thursday, September 10, 2020

2:00 US High API Weekly Crude Oil Stock -6.360M

13:00 China Moderate New Loans 992.7B

17:15 Euro High Deposit Facility Rate (Sep) -0.50% -0.50%

17:15 Euro High ECB Marginal Lending Facility 0.25%

17:15 Euro High ECB Monetary Policy Statement

17:15 Euro High ECB Interest Rate Decision (Sep) 0.00% 0.00%

18:00 US High Initial Jobless Claims 881K

18:00 US High Continuing Jobless Claims 13,254K

18:00 US Moderate PPI (MoM) (Aug) 0.20% 0.60%

18:00 US Moderate PPI (YoY) (Aug) -0.30% -0.40%

18:00 Euro V high ECB Press Conference

19:30 US Moderate Wholesale Inventories (MoM) -0.10% -1.40%

19:30 US Moderate Wholesale Trade Sales (MoM) (Jul) 4.90% 8.80%

20:00 US High EIA Natural Gas Storage 35B

20:30 US High Crude Oil Inventories -1.887M -9.362M

20:30 US High EIA Weekly Distillates Stocks -1.357M -1.676M

20:30 US High EIA Gasoline Inventories -3.036M -4.320M

20:30 US High EIA Weekly Refinery Utilization Rates (WoW) -5.20% -5.30%

Friday, September 11, 2020

12:30 China Moderate FDI 0.50%

15:30 Euro Moderate Eurogroup Meetings

17:00 India Moderate Bank Loan Growth 5.50%

17:00 India Moderate Deposit Growth 11.00%

17:00 India Moderate FX Reserves, USD 541.43B

17:30 India Moderate Cumulative Industrial Production (Jul) -35.90%

17:30 India High Industrial Production (YoY) (Jul) -20.00% -16.60%

17:30 India High Manufacturing Output (MoM) (Jul) -17.10%

18:00 US High CPI (YoY) (Aug) 1.20% 1.00%

18:00 US High CPI (MoM) (Aug) 0.30% 0.60%

22:30 US Moderate U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count 181

22:30 US Moderate U.S. Baker Hughes Total Rig Count 254

BULLION

GOLD M

MCX Oct

Intra Day

Near Term

Technical Levels

R3 53150/53430

R2 52830/52990

R1 51450/51790/52200

Turnaround 50740

S1 50500/50150/49990

S2 49650/49250

S3 48800

Technical Commentary

Intraday move largely to be northbound with an immediate objective of

51450 then to 51790. On the other hand, slippage below 50740 may dent our

buying expectation.

Technical Levels

R3 72800/73300/74200

R2 71500

R1 68800/70000

Turnaround 66000

S1 65000

S2 63450/66200/65000

S3 64250/63900

Technical Commentary

Major weakness may establish only below 66000 region. Else could bid

intraday buying towards the upside objective of 68800 followed by 70000.

SILVER M

MCX Nov

Intra Day

Near Term

NATURAL GAS

MCX Sep

Intra Day

Near Term

CRUDEOIL

MCX Sep

Intra Day

Near Term

ENERGY

Technical Levels

R3 3170/3225

R2 3035/3110

R1 2870/2925/2960

Turnaround 2830

S1 2670/2610

S2 2570

S3 2525

Technical Commentary

Present recovery move less likely to extend unless prices sustained above the

2830 region. Else could expect further weakness towards 2670 then to 2610

region.

Technical Levels

R3 209/213.40

R2 198/202.40/205.80

R1 183/188.80/195.50

Turnaround 179.70

S1 173/167.60

S2 163

S3 159.50

Technical Commentary

Present weakness may continue in the coming session towards the price

objective of 173 firstly then to 167.60. On the other hand, recovery move

above 179.70 could boost prices higher.

NICKEL

MCX Sep

Intra Day

Near Term

BASE METALS

Technical Levels

R3 548.50

R2 538.90/544.20

R1 528/531.50/536

Turnaround 524.90

S1 519/516.60

S2 514.20

S3 511/507.60/504

Technical Commentary

Weakness may largely to persist towards the downside objective of 519 then

to 516.60. But rise above 524.90 could lift prices higher.

Technical Levels

R3 1163/1175/1182

R2 1143/1155/1163

R1 1106/1117/1136

Turnaround 1080

S1 1074/1059

S2 1045

S3 1027

Technical Commentary

Major weakness may be seen only below the 1080. Else hold the same for a

price recovery towards 1106 then to 1117 region. But dip below 1080 may

push prices further lower.

Copper

MCX Sep

Intra Day

Near Term

Zinc

MCX Sep

Intra Day

Near Term

Lead

MCX Sep

Intra Day

Near Term

BASE METALS

Technical Levels

R3 203.30/204.80

R2 195.70/198/199.50

R1 190.30/193

Turnaround 187

S1 185.60/182.80

S2 181

S3 179.50/177

Technical Levels

R3 160.40/161.80

R2 158.20/159.20

R1 152/155.80/157

Turnaround 150.20

S1 147.50/145.80

S2 144

S3 142.40

Technical Commentary

Prices clearly held the Bollinger lower band level of 187 region. Which if

remain undisturbed could bid a recovery move towards 190.30 region.

However, dip below 187 with significant volume may push prices lower.

Technical Commentary

As long as prices trade below the EMA level of 150.20 could expect weakness

towards the downside objective of 147.50 then to 145.80. On the flipside

direct rise above 150.20 could bid intraday recovery move.

Aluminium

MCX Sep

Intra Day

Near Term

BASE METALS

Technical Levels

R3 150.30/152

R2 149.10/149.80

R1 147/147.70

Turnaround 145.20

S1143.50/142.80/141.

90

S2 140.60/138.70

S3 136

Technical Commentary

Since prices broke the downside hurdle of 145.20 could expect weakness

towards the downside objective of 143.50 followed by Bollinger lower band

level of 142.80.

Buying

sentiment/

Bullish

Selling

sentiment/

Bearish

Neutral/

sideways

S1/S2/S3 -Support level – Price points where buying pressure thought to be strong enough to counter selling

pressure.

R1/R2/R3 -Resistance level – – Price points where selling pressure thought to be strong enough to counter

buying pressure.

GENERAL DISCLOSURES & DISCLAIMERS:

CERTIFICATION

I, Krishnaprasad N.B., employee of Geojit Financial Services Limited (GFSL), authors of this report, hereby

certify that all the views expressed in this research report (report) reflect our personal views about any or all

of the subject issuer or securities/ commodities.

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This report has been prepared by GFSL and the report & its contents are the exclusive property of GFSL and the

recipient cannot tamper with the report or its contents in any manner and the said report, shall in no case, be

further distributed to any third party for commercial use, with or without consideration.

GFSL has taken steps to ensure that facts in this report are based on reliable information but cannot testify,

nor make any representation or warranty, express or implied, to the accuracy, contents or data contained

within this report. It is hereby confirmed that wherever GFSL has employed a rating system in this report, the

rating system has been clearly defined including the time horizon and benchmarks on which the rating is based.

Descriptions of any Commodity or Commodities mentioned herein are not intended to be complete and this

report is not, and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer, to buy or sell any commodity

or other financial instruments. GFSL has not taken any steps to ensure that the commodity/(ies) referred to in

this report are suitable for any particular investor. This Report is not to be relied upon in substitution for the

exercise of independent judgment. Opinions or estimates expressed are current opinions as of the original

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provided which may be considered by the reader before making an investment decision:

1. Disclosures regarding Ownership:

GFSL confirms that:

It/its associates have no financial interest or any other material conflict in relation to the subject Commodity

futures covered herein at the time of publication of this report.

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and they have no other material conflict in the subject Commodity at the time of publication of this report.

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any entity/ third party in connection with the Commodity futures mentioned in this report.

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It is affirmed that I,Krishna prasad N.B., employed as Research Analyst by GFSL and engaged in the preparation

of this report have no substantial ownership or financial interest over any Commodity futures mentioned in the

report.

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Neither GFSL nor its Research Analysts have engaged in market making activities for the subject Commodity

futures.

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