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IGA 226: The Geopolitics of EnergyProfessor Meghan L. O’Sullivan
Harvard’s Kennedy School Fall 2009
Faculty: Professor Meghan L. O’Sullivan Faculty Assistant: Rosita Scarfo
Office: Littauer 329 FA Office:
Telephone: 617 496 4308 FA Telephone: 617 496 1739
Email: [email protected]
FA Email: [email protected]
Office Hours: Wed from 2:00-4:00 p.m.Course Assistant: Drew SloanCA Email: [email protected]
Lectures: Mon and Wed 11:40-1:00 p.m. Course Fellow: Moeed YusufCF Email: [email protected]
Course Description
Energy has long been a major factor in the formulation of country strategies, the exercise of national power, and in determining the shape of the international system. As both concernsabout oil supply and pressures to reduce carbon emissions intensify, countries are grappling to situate their energy policies in the broader context of their grand strategies. Just within the past year, Russia’s temporary halt of gas to Ukraine, China’s seemingly relentless global quest for natural resources, and talk of sanctions on refined oil products to Iran to pressure the country to curb its nuclear ambitions demonstrate the nexus between international politics and energy needs.
The starting point for the course is energy security, examined both from the perspective of consumers and producers. Yet the course goes beyond the simple need to maintain access to energy (consumers) or to ensure continuous buyers (producers) to explore how energy projections are figuring in the domestic and international strategies of countries and regions. The course will also take such thinking one step further by seeking to identify what such national strategies, when aggregated, mean for current and future modes of international cooperation and conflict. While acknowledging that oil and gas will be dominant for the next 20-40 years, the course contends that the world has embarked on a gradual shift away from fossil fuels – one that will itself bring major changes to the international political, military, and economic systems.
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Four objectives define the course. Students can expect to 1) gain a greater understanding of the energy security concerns of producer and consumer countries; 2) identify and analyze how countries have altered their foreign policies, domestic efforts, and military strategies in light of such concerns; 3) examine shifting trends in the energy realm; and 4) anticipate new patterns and structural shifts in the international environment in light of these trends.
The course begins with a short historical overview of how energy – particularly the pursuit, production, and protection of oil – framed international conflicts and alliances in the 20th
century. It then challenges the class to anticipate the energy landscape in 2025 by looking at the potential for renewable energies to displace oil and gas in that timeframe. After this introductory unit, the class considers how energy endowments have shaped the nature of the state – and, therefore to some extent the state’s interaction with the world – in energy rich regions. Next, the course turns to examine several ways in which producer countries have used oil and gas, or their proceeds, as instruments or means of national power. Turning to the predicaments of producer countries, the class will look at the satisfaction of energy needs as an end or goal of various foreign policy or security strategies, be it the militarization of energy, oil diplomacy, pipeline politics, or energy mercantilism. The penultimate section of the course calls on each student to develop national energy security strategies for a country of his or her choice. The final section explores the consequences of a “successful energy policy” by prodding the class to anticipate the future geopolitical landscape in light of a shift away from fossil fuels.
Throughout the course, students will be required to engage in multiple debates on questions ranging from whether the United States should have a state oil company, to whether low energy prices are good for those pushing for political reform in Iran, to whether Russia and China are developing an energy alliance and, if so, how that is likely to affect Western interests.
Course Expectations and Requirements
IGA 226 is a graduate level course appropriate for those with an interest in energy and international politics and strategy. There are no prerequisites for the course. The focus of the readings, lectures, class conversations and projects will be more political and strategic than technical in nature. Students must be able to attend all classes; absence from more than one class may be reflected in a student’s grade. They should also be prepared to actively participate in class. No laptops will be permitted in the classroom except for those of students who are making presentations.
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Student evaluation will be based on a variety of inputs as outlined in the box below. There will be no final exam. Early in the course, each student will be required to pick 1) a country and 2) a renewable energy source that he or she will focus on throughout the course of the class (see below).
Activity Percentage of Grade! General class participation: the course schedule
indicates specific questions that will be addressed in class; students should be prepared to discuss them and to be cold-called.
15%
! 2-3 page paper on the potential for a renewable energy to meet energy needs by 2025 and the steps and challenges that would need to be taken or overcome to meet that potential.
15%
! 2-3 page outline, authored by a team of two, to argue one side of a debate (see class outlines below); launch the debate/conversation in class for approximately 20 minutes.
20%
! 10-15 page National Energy and Security Strategy on one country; work with team of others (who are writing on countries in the same region) to develop regional strategies; present to class.
35%
! 3-4 page paper anticipating the geopolitical consequences of a successful shift away from fossil fuels (based on a technological breakthrough in the renewable energy of your choice)
15%
* All papers should be 12 font, double-spaced
Tentative Schedule
Class Date TopicClass Questions/Topics for Possible
Debate in BoldUNIT 1: ENERGY AS A DETERMINANT OF THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM
1 Wed Sept 2
Introduction; Overview of Course and Requirements; Characteristics of Grand Strategy; History Part I: Energy in the World Wars
What does "the geopolitics of energy" mean? What are the main characteristics of grand strategy? What are the different ways in which energy concerns might shape the international system? How was energy decisive in the outcome of World War I and II?
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Mon Sept 5 LABOR DAY
2 Wed Sept 9 History Part II: The Post War Petroleum Order
What were the main elements of the post-war petroleum order? What role did oil and gas play in shaping post war allegiances? What was the balance between governments and companies in shaping this energy order?
3Mon Sept
14History Part III: Energy Crises of the 1970s, 1980s, and 1990s
What fundamentals changed at the end of the post war petroleum order? How did these developments pave the way for oil producers to exert unprecedented power in the 1970s? What sort of pressure did this oil crises place on international politics and alliances? What explains the varying national responses of countries? What caused the price collapse of the 1980s? And why was the aftermath of the first Gulf War less disruptive to international markets and politics?
4Wed Sept
16
Today’s Globalized Energy Order: Fundamentals; Supply and Demand; Energy Markets; Infrastructure
Looking at the historical episodes, what factors and realities determine the price of oil? What explains the rise in the price of oil of 2008? How do the fundamentals look in our time? What are the implications for the world today and going forward? What are the major risks to a stable energy order today? Debate: The world has reached "peak oil."
5Mon Sept
21
Predicting the Energy Landscape in 2025; Alternative Fuels Versus Fossil Fuels
What is the potential for various alternative sources of energy to meet global (or U.S.) energy needs in 2025? What changes (policy or otherwise) would need to occur for these sources to reach their potential? What are the implications for global dependence on oil, gas, and coal in 2025? (See assignment below.)
PART II: ENERGY AS A MEANS OF NATIONAL POWER: Producer country domestic realities and geopolitical implications of producer country actions
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6Wed Sept
23Energy Endowments and the Nature of the State
Debate: There is no relationship between oil and democracy. How does the discovery and exploitation of resources affect the development of a country’s political institutions? Will a decline in the price of oil help or hinder political reform? How might energy markets and internal political change in Iran interact today?
7Mon Sept
28 The Resource Curse
Is there such a thing as the resource curse? Is it inevitable? What policy advice would you give President JohnAtta Mills of Ghana, a country who just discovered potentially significant amounts of oil?
8Wed Sept
30 Cartelization
What is the future of OPEC? What is the likelihood of the emergence of a Gas OPEC? What might be the geopolitical implications for such a development? Debate: Consumer nations should fear the emergence of a natural gas cartel.
9 Mon Oct 5Financial Instruments: Stabilization Funds and Sovereign Wealth Funds
What are the implications of major shifts in wealth and the advent of newproducer-country financial instruments on the global economy? Do largecurrent account surpluses of major energy exporting states pose a challenge to the United States and its ability to manage economic imbalances/exert global economic influence?
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10 Wed Oct 7 Resource Nationalism
What has given rise to national oil companies (NOCs) and what are the implications for their control over vast amounts of reserves? To what extent is Gazprom a tool of Russian foreign and security policy? What about other NOCs? Debate: The 2006 and 2009 crises between Russia and Ukraine were commercial not political.
PART III: ENERGY AS AN END TO FOREIGN POLICY AND SECURITY STRATEGIES: Consumer challenges and responses to energy needs
11 Wed Oct 14 The Ethics of Energy Development
What are the political and moral dilemmas sometime associated with the development of energy resources? How have companies handled them? What is the role of non-governmental institutions in such instances? International financial institutions?
Mon Oct 12 COLUMBUS DAY
12 Mon Oct 19U.S. in the Persian Gulf: Oil diplomacy and the militarization of energy
What is the "true" cost of oil in the United States? Why does the United States maintain a military presence in the Persian Gulf? How valid are claims that the 1991 and 2003 wars against Iraq were about oil? What would happen if it were to leave? Debate: The United States should end its military presence in the Gulf.
13 Wed Oct 21 Pipeline Politics; Transit Countries; Eurasian Diplomacy
Are energy pipelines the railroads of today? Has the Baku-Ceyhan pipeline changed the geopolitics of the region? Will a successful Nabucco free Europe from Russian political interference? Can pipelines create incentives for peace? Debate: The intense U.S. diplomacy in the Caspian/Central Asia is disproportionate to the importance of the region and has harmed U.S. interests more than helped.
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14 Mon Oct 26 Energy Mercantilism; China in Africa
What forms does energy mercantilism take? Do such activities have a broader impact on global markets? Should the United States have its own national oil company? What new or great power alliances could or are emerging as a result of the trend toward energy mercantilism? Debate: The equity oil strategies of China harm U.S. and other Western interests.
15 Wed Oct 28Sanctions: Consumer Use of Energy to Meet Foreign Policy and Security Strategy Goals
When are sanctions most likely to succeed? Under what circumstances have consumer countries been able to use energy as a weapon? What has been the cost of sanctions on energy producing states? Debate: Congress should impose "secondary sanctions" on countries investing in Iran.
PART IV: NATIONAL ENERGY AND SECURITY STRATEGIES
16 Mon Nov 2 Presentation of National Security Strategies I: Africa
Students should chose country of inquiry; see below for suggestions.
17 Wed Nov 4 Presentation of National Security Strategies II: Asia
Students should chose country of inquiry; see below for suggestions.
18 Mon Nov 9 Presentation of National Security Strategies III: Eurasia
Students should chose country of inquiry; see below for suggestions.
19Wed Nov
11
Presentation of National Security Strategies IV: Latin America
Students should chose country of inquiry; see below for suggestions.
20Mon Nov
16 Oil Shock Simulation
PART V: ANTICIPATING THE FUTURE
21Wed Nov
18
Global Implications of the Aggregation of National Security Strategies
What are the global consequences if we were to aggregate all the national and regional energy security strategies? What new problems would be created? What kind of competition would arise?
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What new nodes of potential cooperation? Would existing international institutions be suited to help manage tensions and conflict?
22Mon Nov
23
Geopolitical Consequences of a Successful Shift from Fossil Fuels
What would the world look like if the United States and other great powers were successful in reducing their dependence on fossil fuels by 50% by 2025? What would be the geopolitical repercussions if oil consumption were replaced by solar energy? By biofuels? By nuclear energy? By LNG?
23Wed Nov
25
Geopolitical Consequences of a Successful Shift from Fossil Fuels (cont.)
24Mon Nov
30
Crafting U.S. Energy Strategy; Energy Independence; Domestic Responses; International Responses
What are the most important pillars of an energy strategy for the 21st century? How can the United States lead the world in “transcending” oil? How can the United States balance energy security and climate change? Debate: Energy independence is a desirable and feasible goal for the United States.
25 Wed Dec 2 Wrap Up
Readings:
Required Texts: ! Daniel Yergin, The Prize: The Epic Quest for Oil, Money, and Power (Free Press,
2008).! Jan H. Kalicki and David L. Goldwyn (eds.), Energy and Security: Toward a New
Foreign Policy Strategy (John Hopkins University Press, 2005).
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Course packets will be prepared for additional readings.Links will be provided for all required readings available online. When readings are available on line or on the course page, they will not be replicated in a course packet.
PART I: ENERGY AS A DETERMINANT OF THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM
Class 1: Wed, Sept. 2: Introduction; Overview of course and requirements; Characteristics of Grand Strategy; History Part I: Energy in the World Wars
! Daniel Yergin, The Prize: The Epic Quest for Oil, Money, and Power, chapters 8, 9, and 19.
Class 2: Wed, Sept. 9: History Part II: The Post War Petroleum Order
** ASSIGNMENT: Sign up for the alternative energy source that you will explore in 2-3 page paper. See Class 5. You will also use this energy source as the basis of your paper due at the time of class 22.
! Daniel Yergin, The Prize: The Epic Quest for Oil, Money, and Power, chapters 21, 22, and 24.
Class 3: Mon, Sept. 14: History Part III: Energy Crises of the 1970s, 1980s, and 1990s
! Daniel Yergin, The Prize: The Epic Quest for Oil, Money, and Power, chapters 29, 30, 32 (just pp. 635-638) and, 36 (just pp. 726-745).
Class 4: Wed, Sept. 16: Today’s Globalized Energy Order: Fundamentals; Supply and Demand; Energy Markets; Infrastructure
! International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 2008, (OECD, 2008), Chapter 2, pp. 77-90. (13 pages)
! Gordon Brown and Nicolas Sarkozy, “We Must Address Oil Market Volatility,” The Wall Street Journal, Opinion Europe, July 8, 2009. http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124699813615707481.html
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! Daniel Yergin, “The Long Aftershock: Oil and Energy Security After the Price Collapse,” Testimony before US Congress Joint Economic Committee, 20 May 2009, pp. 3-13. (10 pages) http://www.house.gov/jec/news/2009/Yergin%20Testimony%20JtEconComm%2005-20-09%20final%20dococument%20(2).pdf
! Matthew Simmons, “Another Nail in the Coffin of the Case Against Peak Oil,” November 16, 2007 (15 pages plus chart appendices).http://www.simmonsco-intl.com/files/Another%20Nail%20in%20the%20Coffin.pdf
! Michael Lynch, “Peak Oil is a Waste of Energy,” New York Times, 24 August 2009. (2 pages)http://www.nytimes.com/2009/08/25/opinion/25lynch.html?_r=2&adxnnl=1&adxnnlx=1251202159-ODOaeXfx1sFtpw616EM%20Cw&pagewanted=print
! Daniel Yergin, “Oil at the Break Point,” Testimony before US Congress Joint Economic Committee, 25 June 2008. (12 pages) http://www2.cera.com/news/DYergin_June2008_Testimony.pdf
** SUBMIT 2-3 page paper to Drew Sloan on alternative energy source by 10am on Friday, Sept. 18.
** MEET with others in class for 30 minutes sometime between 10am Friday and 11am Monday to discuss and decide who will present case for alternative energy in class on Mon, Sept 21 for 5-7 minutes.
Class 5: Mon, Sept. 21: Predicting the Energy Landscape in 2025; Alternative Fuels Versus Fossil Fuels
**ASSIGNMENT: Students will have signed up to examine an energy source besides oil: natural gas, coal (CCS), nuclear, solar, biofuels, wind, or geothermal. They should write a 2-3 page paper on the potential for that renewable to meet energy need by 2025. Graphs or charts can supplement the 2-3 pages. The paper should focus on the steps and challenges that would need to be taken or overcome to meet that potential. You will want to consider, to the extent possible, the applications in the transport, electricity, and industrial sectors (Begin by looking at: http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/aer/pdf/pecss_diagram.pdf).The designated spokesperson for each alternative energy source will present for 5-7 minutes. Presenters must strictly adhere to the time limits.
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READINGS for this week will depend on the alternative energy source you choose. Below are general readings which may be helpful and suggested readings for each source. You should feel free to go beyond them to other sources.
For reference on Electricity, Transportation:! Electricity Basic Statistics, 2007, Energy Information Agency. Available at:
http://www.eia.doe.gov/basics/quickelectric.html! Annual Energy Outlook 2009 with Projections to 2030, March 2009, Energy
Information Agency. Available at: http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo/electricity.html! International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 2008, (OECD, 2008), Chapter 6,
pp. 139-158. ! Jon R. Luoma, “The Challenge for Green Energy: How to Store Excess Electricity,” in
Environment 360, 7/13/2009 http://e360.yale.edu/content/feature.msp?id=2170 (on course web page)
! Anup Bandivadekar, et. al. “On the Road in 2035: Reducing Transportation’s Petroleum Consumption and GHG Emissions,” from The MIT Laboratory for Energy and the Environment, July 2008 (on course web page)
! Kelly Sims Gallagher, et. al. “Policy Options for Reducing Oil Consumption and Greenhouse Gas Emissions from the US Transportation Sector,” HKS Discussion Paper, July 27, 2007, http://belfercenter.ksg.harvard.edu/files/policy_options_oil_climate_transport_final.pdf
For reference on Policy: ! The Clean Energy Economy, Repowering Jobs, Businesses, and Investments in
America, The Pew Institute, June 2009. Available at: http://www.pewtrusts.org/news_room_detail.aspx?id=53254
! Obama-Biden New American Energy Factsheet. Available at: www.barackobama.com/pdf/factsheet_energy_speech_080308.pdf
! Everything you always wanted to know about the Waxman-Markey Energy/Climate Bill- in Bullet Points, Kate Sheppard, 3 June 2009, Grist.org. Found at: http://www.gristmill.org/article/2009-06-03-waxman-markey-bill-breakdown/
Coal (CCS):! International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 2008, (OECD, 2008), Chapter 5,
pp. 123-137. ! The Future of Coal, MIT Report, 2007. Available at: http://web.mit.edu/coal/! R: Dan Schrag, “Making Carbon Capture and Storage Work,” in Acting in Time on
Energy Policy, ed. Kelly Gallagher. (Brookings Institution, 2009), p. 39-55.! James Bartis and Frank Camm, and David Ortiz, Producing Liquid Fuels from Coal:
Prospects and Policy Issues, RAND Monograph, 2008.http://www.rand.org/pubs/monographs/2008/RAND_MG754.pdf
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Natural Gas:! International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 2008, (OECD, 2008), Chapter 4,
pp. 109-122. ! David G. Victor, Amy M. Jaffe, and Mark H. Hayes (eds.), Natural Gas and
Geopolitics: From 1970 to 2040, (Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, 2006).
Nuclear:! Forget Nuclear, Amory B. Lovins, Imran Sheikh, Alex Markevich, Rocky Mountain
Institute. Available at: http://www.rmi.org/sitepages/pid467.php! The Future of Nuclear, MIT Report. Available at: http://web.mit.edu/nuclearpower/! World Energy Assessment, 2000, Chapter 8, section on “Advanced nuclear energy
technologies,” pp. 306-318 http://www.undp.org/energy/activities/wea/pdfs/chapter8.pdf
! Keystone Center, Nuclear Power Joint Fact-Finding, 2007, Executive Summary, pp. 9-18, http://208.72.156.157/~keystone/files/file/SPP/energy/NJFF-Exec-Summ-6_2007.pdf
Solar:! International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 2008, (OECD, 2008), Chapter 7,
pp. 159-178. ! Solar Energy Technologies Program: Concentrated Solar, DOE, EERE website.
Found at: http://apps1.eere.energy.gov/solar/cfm/faqs/third_level.cfm/name=Concentrating%20Solar%20Power/cat=Applications
! Trends in Photovoltaic Applications: Survey report of selected IEA countries between 1992 and 2007, International Energy Agency, 2007. Available at: http://www.iea-pvps.org/products/rep1_16.htm
! Very Large-Scale Deployment of Grid-Connected Solar Photovoltaics in the United States: Challenges and Opportunities, NREL Conference Paper (NREL/CP-620-39683), P. Denholm and R. Margolis, 2006. Available at: http://www.nrel.gov/pv/publications.html
Geothermal:! International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 2008, (OECD, 2008), Chapter 7,
pp. 159-178. ! Geothermal 101: The Basics of Geothermal Energy, edited by Leslie Blodgett and
Kara Slack, 15 February 2009, Geothermal Energy Association. Available at: http://www.geo-energy.org/publications/reports.asp
! Deep in Bedrock, Clean Energy and Quake Fears, James Glanz, New York Times, 23 June 2009. Available at: http://www.nytimes.com/2009/06/24/business/energy-environment/24geotherm.html?_r=1&th&emc=th
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Wind:! International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 2008, (OECD, 2008), Chapter 7,
pp. 159-178. ! 20% Wind by 2030, Department of Energy. Available at:
http://www.20percentwind.org/20p.aspx?page=Report! New Wind Agenda. Available at: http://www.newwindagenda.org/! 2008 Wind Technologies Report, Department of Energy. Available at:
http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/re-pubs.html
Biofuels:! International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 2008, (OECD, 2008), Chapter 7,
pp. 159-178.
PART II: ENERGY AS A MEANS OF NATIONAL POWER: Producer country domestic realities and geopolitical implications of producer country actions
Class 6: Wed, Sept. 23: Energy Endowments and the Nature of the State
! Michael Ross, “Does Oil Hinder Democracy?” World Politics, 53 (April 2001), pp. 325-61.
! Michael Ross, "Why Oil Wealth Fuels Conflict," Foreign Affairs, May/June 2008.
! Gwenn Okruhlik, “Rentier Wealth, Unruly Law, and the Rise of the Opposition: The Politicaly Economy of Oil States,” Comparative Politics, vol. 31, No. 3 (April 1999), pp 295-309.
Class 7: Mon, Sept. 28: The Resource Curse
! Daniel Yergin, The Prize: The Epic Quest for Oil, Money, and Power, on Iran, pp. pp. 656-661.
! Terry L. Karl, “Understanding the Resource Curse”, in Svetlana Tsalik and Anya Schiffrin (eds.), Covering Oil: A Reporter’s Guide to Energy and Development, (New York: Open Society Institute, 2005), pp. 21-30.
! SKIM: Jeffrey D. Sachs and Andrew M. Warner, Natural Resource Abundance and Economic Growth, Development Discussion Paper no. 517a, Cambridge: Harvard Institute for International Development, 1995.
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! Norio Usui, “Dutch Disease and Policy Adjustments to the Oil Boom: A Comparative Study of Indonesia and Mexico,” Resources Policy, Vol. 23, No. 4, pp. 151- 162 (1997).
! Vasily Astrov, “The Russian Oil Fund as a Tool of Stabilization and Sterilization,” Focus, January 2007, pp. 167-176.
! Polya Lesova, “What will oil mean for Ghana?” Market Watch, 31 July 2009, (2 pages). http://www.marketwatch.com/story/story/print?guid=F48A17D6-236B-433C-856B-24260B04433B
Class 8: Wed, Sept. 30: Cartelization: Prospects for a Gas OPEC
! Edward Morse and Amy Myers Jaffe, “OPEC in Confrontation with Globalization,” in Kalicki and Goldwyn (eds), Energy & Security: Toward a New Foreign Policy Strategy, (Woodrow Wilson Press, 2005), pp. 65-92.
! Alvaro Silva-Calderon, “Commentary on Part I,” in Kalicki and Goldwyn (eds), Energy & Security, pp. 117-122.
! Donald A. Juckett and Michelle Michot Foss, “Can a ‘Global’ Natural Gas Market Be Achieved?,” in Kalicki and Goldwyn (eds), Energy & Security, pp. 531-552.
Class 9: Mon, Oct. 5: Financial Instruments: Global Implications of Large Wealth Transfers
! Daniel Yergin, The Prize: The Epic Quest for Oil, Money, and Power, on Mexico, pp. pp. 712-714.
! Lee Hudson Teslik, “A Primer on Sovereign Wealth Funds,” Council on Foreign Relations Website, 28 January 2009, http://www.cfr.org/publication/15251/
! Brad Setser and Rachel Ziemba, “GCC Sovereign Funds,” Council on Foreign Relations Working Paper, January 2009, Appendix, pp. 21-26.
! Kevin Harrington, “The Petrodollar Illusion,” Clarium Capital Management Research Paper, September 2006, 1-21.
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Class 10: Wed, Oct. 7: Resource Nationalism
! Ian Bremmer and Robert Johnston, “The Rise and Fall of Resource Nationalism,” Survival, 1468-2699, Volume 51, Issue 2, 2009, pp. 149 – 158.
! Read one of the case studies below. Be prepared to talk in class about the country and NOC generally (including market share), the strategic alliances formed by the company, and your assessment of how and the extent to which the company is used to pursue foreign policy objectives as well commercial ones. Also think about what the effect of the 2008 price spike has been on the company and therefore the country’s projection of national power.
o Fred R. von der Mehden, Petronas: A National Oil Company with an International Vision. http://www.bakerinstitute.org/programs/energy-forum/publications/docs/NOCs/Papers/NOC_Petronas_TronerVDM.pdf
o Isabel Gorst, Lukoil: Russia’s Largest Oil Company. http://www.rice.edu/energy/publications/docs/NOCs/Papers/NOC_Lukoil_Gorst.pdf
o Amy Myers Jaffe and Jareer Elass, Saudi Aramco: National Flagship with Global Responsibilities http://www.bakerinstitute.org/programs/energy-forum/publications/docs/NOCs/Papers/NOC_SaudiAramco_Jaffe-Elass-revised.pdf
o Donald I. Hertzmark, Pertamina, Indonesia's State-Owned Oil Company,http://www.bakerinstitute.org/programs/energy-forum/publications/docs/NOCs/Papers/NOC_Pertamina_Hertzmark.pdf
o David R. Mares, Venezuela's PDVSA and World Energy Markets: Corporate Strategies and Political Factors Determining its Behavior and Influencehttp://www.bakerinstitute.org/programs/energy-forum/publications/docs/NOCs/Papers/NOC_PDVSA_Mares-Altamirano.pdf
o Richard Gordon and Thomas Stenvoll, Statoil: A Study in Political Entrepreneurship,http://www.bakerinstitute.org/programs/energy-forum/publications/docs/NOCs/Papers/NOC_Statoil_Gordon-Stenvoll.pdf
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o Martha Brill Olcott, Kazmunaigaz: Kazakhstan's National Oil and Gas Company, http://www.bakerinstitute.org/programs/energy-forum/publications/docs/NOCs/Papers/NOC_Kaz_Olcott.pdf
Background
! Rawi Abdelal, Sogomon Tarontsi, and Alexander Jorov, Gazprom (A): Energy and Strategy in Russian History, Harvard Business School case 9-709-008, 6 March 2009.
Mon, Oct. 12 – Columbus Day
Class 11: Wed, Oct. 14: The Ethics of Energy Development
! David Waskow and Carol Welch, “The Environmental, Social, and Human Rights Impacts of Oil Development,” in Svetlana Tsalik and Anya Schiffrin (eds.), Covering Oil: A Reporter’s Guide to Energy and Development, (New York: Open Society Institute, 2005), pp. 101-128. (27 pages)
! Benjamin C. Esty, “The Chad-Cameroon Petroleum Development and Pipeline Project,” Harvard Business School Case no. 9-202-010, 17 March 2006, pp. 1-11 plus look at charts.
! Harvard Business School, “The Burma Pipeline,” Harvard Business School Case no. 9-798-078, 3 March 2000, pp. 1-13 plus look at charts.
! Pablo Idahosa, “Business Ethics and Development in Conflict Zones: The Case of Talisman Oil,” Journal of Business Ethics, vol. 39, no. 3, September 2002, pp. 227-246.
PART III: ENERGY AS AN END TO FOREIGN POLICY AND SECURITY STRATEGIES: Consumer challenges and responses to energy needs
Class 12: Mon, Oct. 19: U.S. in the Persian Gulf: Oil Diplomacy and the Militarization of Energy
! Lawrence Korb and Ian Moss, Moving Beyond the Carter Doctrine: Rethinking the U.S. Military Presence in the Persian Gulf, The Century Foundation, 2008, pp. 3-17. http://www.tcf.org/publications/internationalaffairs/korb.pdf
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! Michael Klare, “The Futile Pursuit of “Energy Security” by Military Force,” Brown Journal of International Affairs, Spring/Summer 2007, vol XII, issue 2, pp. 139-153.
! J. Robin West, “Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and the Gulf,” in Jan H. Kalicki and David L. Goldwyn (eds.), Energy and Security: Toward a New Foreign Policy Strategy (John Hopkins University Press, 2005), pp. 197-217.
! Shibley Telhami, “The Persian Gulf: Understanding the American Oil Strategy,” The Brookings Review, Spring 2002. (5 pages). http://www.brookings.edu/articles/2002/spring_globalenvironment_telhami.aspx
! David Goldwyn, “Energy Security: A New Mission for NATO,” The Lugar Energy Initiative. http://lugar.senate.gov/energy/links/commentary/04Goldwyn.cfm
! Walter Russell Mead, “Why We’re in the Gulf,” Wall Street Journal, 27 December 2007. http://www.opinionjournal.com/editorial/feature.html?id=110011063
! Peter Singer, “Fueling our security: The need for a defense energy strategy,” The Washington Examiner, 25 August 2009. http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/politics/Fueling-our-security_-The-need-for-a-defense-energy-strategy-8149899-54612187.html
! Masood Farivar, “Energy: Military Seeks Oil Savings: Rising Demand. Supply Risks Spur Conservation Move,” Wall Street Journal, 9 January 2007, p. A 15. (on ProQuest).
! DOD Energy Security Task Force, “Department of Defense Security Initiatives,” WSTIAC Quarterly, vol. 9, no. 1, pp. 3-10. http://wstiac.alionscience.com/pdf/WQV9N1_ART01.pdf
Background
! Rachel Bronson, “Interview: Thicker Than Oil: America’s Uneasy Partnership with Saudi Arabia,” Council on Foreign Relations, 17 April 2006, audio or transcript at http://www.cfr.org/publication/10580/thicker_than_oil.html
! Center for Naval Analyses, Powering America’s Defense: Energy and the Risks to National Security, May 2009. http://www.cna.org/documents/PoweringAmericasDefense.pdf
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! Kristine Blackwell, “The Department of Defense: Reducing its Reliance on Fossil-Based Aviation Fuel – Issues for Congress,” Congressional Research Service Report, 15 June 2007. http://fas.org/sgp/crs/natsec/RL34062.pdf
! Gregory J. Lengyel, Department of Defense Energy Strategy: Teaching an Old Dog New Tricks, Air University Press, Walker Paper No. 10, January 2008. http://aupress.maxwell.af.mil/Walker_Papers/PDF_Bin/Lengyel.pdf
Class 13: Wed, Oct. 21: Pipeline Politics; Transit countries; Eurasian Diplomacy
! Jan Kalicki and Jonathan Elkind, “Eurasian Transportation Futures,” in Jan H. Kalicki and David L. Goldwyn (eds.), Energy and Security: Toward a New Foreign Policy Strategy (John Hopkins University Press, 2005), pp. 149 - 174.
! Swante E. Cornell, Mamuka Tseretelli, and Vladimir Socor “Geostrategic Implications of the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan Pipeline,” in S. Frederick Starr and Swante E. Cornell (eds.), The Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan Pipeline: Oil Window to the West, (Washington, D.C.: Central Asia-Caucasus Institute and Silk Road Studies Program, SAIS- Johns Hopkins University, 2005), pp. 17- 38.
! Ariel Cohen, Lisa Curtis, and Owen Graham “The Proposed Iran-Pakistan- India Gas Pipeline: An Unacceptable Risk to Regional Security,” Heritage Foundation Backgrounder, No: 2139, (May, 2008). (15 pages)http://www.heritage.org/research/asiaandthepacific/upload/bg_2139.pdf
! Robert Marquand, “Will Nabucco pipeline deal free Europe from Russian gas?” Christian Science Monitor, 13 July 2009.http://www.csmonitor.com/2009/0713/p06s01-woeu.html
Class 14: Mon, Oct. 26: Energy Mercantilism: China in Africa
! Jacqueline Newmyer, “Chinese energy security and the Chinese regime,” in Daniel Moran and James A. Russell (eds.), Energy Security and Global Politics: The militarization of resource management, (London and New York: Routledge, 2009), pp. 188- 210. (22 pages).
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! Erica Downs, “The Fact and Fiction of Sino-African Energy Relations,” China Security, vol. 3, no. 3, Summer 2007, pp. 42-68.(24 pages)http://www.wsichina.org/cs7_3.pdf
! Michael Klare and Daniel Volman, “America, China & the scramble for Africa's Oil,” Review of African Political Economy, No.108, 2006, pp. 297-309 (12 pages).
! Robert J. Samuelson, “Goodbye to Global Free Trade” Newsweek, Vol. 150/151, Issue 27/1, 12/31/2007.
Background:
! F. Warren McFarlan, George Baroutas, Tracy Yuen Manty, “China’s Energy Industry,” HBS Case 9-309-057, 14 April 2009, pp. 1-17.
Class 15: Wed, Oct. 28: Sanctions: Consumer Use of Energy to Meet Foreign Policy and Security Goals
! Read one of the following chapters in Meghan L. O’Sullivan, Shrewd Sanctions: Statecraft and State Sponsors of Terrorism (Brookings Institution Press, 2003). Think about to what extent sanctions were effective in reaching their goals in the energy producing countries and the impact of the sanctions on the energy security of the enforcing country.
o Chapter 3: “Influencing Iran,” pp. 45 - 97.o Chapter 5: “Limiting Libya,” pp. 173 - 229.o Chapter 6: “Sanctioning Sudan,” pp. 233 - 279.
! David Sanger, “U.S. Weighs Iran Sanctions if Talks Are Rejected,” The New York Times, 3 August 2009. http://www.nytimes.com/2009/08/03/world/middleeast/03nuke.html?_r=1&pagewanted=print
! Text of Iran Refined Petroleum Sanctions Act, Senate Bill 908, introduced on 29 April 2009. http://frwebgate.access.gpo.gov/cgi-bin/getdoc.cgi?dbname=111_cong_bills&docid=f:s908is.txt.pdf
Background
! Suzanne Maloney, “Minimizing Potential Threat from Iran: Assessing Sanctions and Other U.S. Policy Options,” Testimony Before the Senate Committee on Banking,
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Housing, and Urban Affairs, 30 July 2009. http://www.brookings.edu/testimony/2009/0730_iran_maloney.aspx?p=1
PART IV: NATIONAL ENERGY AND SECURTY STRATEGIES
** Toward the beginning of the term, students will chose a country in one of the regionsbelow and write a national energy strategy for it for presentation in this section. Each student will then convene with others in his or her geographic grouping to draw out regional implications, conflicts, or strategies before presenting to the class during the below days.
The below readings are just a start; students will want to go beyond them to develop the strategies. Students can chose countries not listed below. No country is off-limits; in fact, we encourage some students to pick countries that are neither substantial producers or consumers. Students not presenting will only be expected to read the general reading on the region before each class to help inform discussion.
Class 16: Mon, Nov. 2: Presentation of National Security Strategies I: Africa
General:! Paul F. Hueper, “Sub- Saharan Africa,” in Jan Kalicki and David L. Goldwyn, Energy
and Security: Toward a New Foreign Policy Strategy, (Washington, D.C. and Baltimore: Woodrow Wilson Center Press and the Johns Hopkins University Press, 2005), pp. 241- 257.
Nigeria:! Godwin Chukwudum Nwaobi, “Oil Policy in Nigeria: A Critical Assessment 1958-
1992,” Quantitative Economic Research Bureau, Nigeria! Ike Okonta, “Nigeria’s Oil Diplomacy,” The Guardian, (January 22, 2008).
Angola:! Alex Vines, Lillian Wong, Markus Weimer and Indira Campos, “Thirst for African
Oil: Asian National Oil Companies in Nigeria and Angola,” Chatham House, (August, 2009).
Algeria:! “Algeria, Russia: Europe’s Natural Gas Dilemma”, Stratfor, (August 10, 2006)
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! Mark H. Hayes, “Algerian Gas to Europe: The Transmed Pipeline and Early Spanish Gas Import Projects,” Geopolitics of Natural Gas Study, Working Paper No: 27, Rice University (May, 2004).
Democratic Republic of the Congo:! John Clark, “Petro-Politics in Congo,” Journal of Democracy, Vol .8, No. 3, (July,
1997), pp. 62 - 76.
Class 17: Wed, Nov. 4: Presentation of National Security Strategies II: Asia
General:! John Ryan, “APEC’s Regional Approach to Energy Security,” in Jan Kalicki and
David L. Goldwyn, Energy and Security: toward a New Foreign Policy Strategy, (Washington, D.C. and Baltimore: Woodrow Wilson Center Press and the Johns Hopkins University Press, 2005)
Japan:! Keiichi Yokobori, “Japan,” in Jan Kalicki and David L. Goldwyn, Energy and
Security: toward a New Foreign Policy Strategy, (Washington, D.C. and Baltiomore: Woodrow Wilson Center Press and the Johns Hopkins University Press, 2005)
Indonesia:! Fred Von Der Mehden and Steven W. Lewis, “Liquefied Natural Gas from Indonesia:
the Arun Project,” in David G. Victor, Amy M. Jaffe, and Mark H. Hayes (eds.), Natural Gas and Geopolitics: From 1970 to 2040, (Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, 2006).
Malaysia:! Dato’ Syed Hamzah Syed Othman, “Oil Security and Emergency Preparedness in
Malaysia,” IEA-ASEAN Workshop Presentation, (September, 2003)! Abdul Rahman Mohamed and Keat Teong Lee, “Energy for Sustainable Development
in Malaysia: Energy Policy and Alternative Energy,” Energy Policy, Vol. 34, Issue: 15, (October, 2006).
India:! J.Carl, V. Rai, and D. Victor, “Energy and India’s Foreign Policy,” Project on
Energy and Sustainable Development, Stanford University, (May, 2008)! T. Madan, “India,” Brookings Foreign Policy Studies, Energy Security Series,
(November, 2006).
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! Stein Tonnesson and Ashild Kolas, “Energy Security in Asia: China, India, Oil and Peace,”International Peace Research Institute (IPRI), (April, 2006).
Australia:! Energy Task Force-Australian Government, “Securing Australia’s Energy Future,”
(2004).
Class 18: Mon, Nov. 9: Presentation of National Security Strategies III: Latin America
General:! Luis Tellez Kuenzler, “Latin America,” in Jan Kalicki and David L. Goldwyn,
Energy and Security: toward a New Foreign Policy Strategy, ( Washington, D.C. and Baltimore: Woodrow Wilson Center Press and the Johns Hopkins University Press, 2005).
Venezuela: ! Harold A. Trinkunas, “Energy Security: the Case of Venezuela,” in Daniel Moran
and James A. Russell (eds.), Energy Security and Global Politics: the Militarization of Resource Management, (New York: Routledge, 2009).
Bolivia: ! Lee Hudson Teslik, “Vying Claims on Bolivia’s Energy”, CFR Website, (May,
2006).! David R. Mares, Peter R. Hartley, and Kenneth B. Medlock III, “Energy Security
in a Context of Hyper- Social Mobilization: Insights from Bolivia,” Rice University Energy Forukm, (2008).
Ecuador:! M.R. Pelaez Samaniego, M. Garcia Perez, L.A.B. Cortez, J. Oscullo, and G.
Olmedo, “Energy Sector in Ecuador: Current Status,” Energy Policy, Volume 35, Issue 8, (August, 2007).
! Guy Hedgecoe, “Ecuador’s energy-Fuelled Politics,” Open Democracy, (June, 2006).
Brazil:! Jose Sergio Gabrielli de Azevedo, “The Greening of Petrobras”, Harvard Business
Review, (March, 2009).
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Class 19: Wed, Nov. 11: Presentation of National Security Strategies IV: Eurasia
Germany:! Frank Umbach, “German Vulnerabilities of Its Energy Security,” American
Institute for Contemporary German Studies, (August, 2008).! Adam Posen, “German Leadership and the Pursuit of Energy Security in a Global
Economy,” Sichere Energie im 21Jahrhundert, (December, 2006).
Poland:! Nadejda M. Victor and David G. Victor, “Bypassing Ukraine: Exporting Russian
Gas to Poland and Germany,” in David G. Victor, Amy M. Jaffe, and Mark H. Hayes (eds.), Natural Gas and Geopolitics: From 1970 to 2040, (Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, 2006).
Norway:! B. Söderbergh, Jakobsson, K., and Aleklett, K, “European energy security: The
future of Norwegian natural gas production”, Energy Policy, (forthcoming).! “Norway: A new LNG Player.” Stratfor, (July, 2008).! Johan Vetlesen, “Energy Policy and Energy Efficiency in Norway in Light of
EU/EEA developments, national policies and local measures,” (June, 2006).
Ukraine:! Rawi Abdelal, Sogomon Tarontsi, and Alexander Jorov, “Gazprom (B, C): the
Ukrainian Crisis and Its Aftermath,” HBS Case, NOs. 9-709-009 and 010, (March, 2009).
Azerbaijan:! Ramil Maharramov, “Petroleum-Fuelled Public Investment in Azerbaijan:
Implications for Competitiveness and Employment,” in Indra Overland, Heidi Kjaernet and Andrea Kendall-Taylor (eds.),Caspian Energy Politics: Azarbaikan, Kazakhistan, and Turkmenistan, (New York: Routledge, 2009-forthcoming)
! Elin Suleymanov, “Azarbaijan-A Partner for Europe in Energy Security,” in Europe’s energy Security.
Kazakhstan:! Zhanibek Saurbek, “Kazakh-Chinese Energy Relations: Economic Pragmatism or
Political Cooperation?,” China and Eurasia Forum Quarterly, Volume 6, No 1, (2008).
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! Mehmet Ogutcu, “Kazakhstan’s expanding cross-border gas links: implications for Europe, Russia, China and other CIS-countries,” Mineral Law and Policy, (September, 2006).
Class 20: Mon, Nov. 16: Oil Shock Simulation
PART V: ANTICIPATING THE FUTURE
Class 21: Wed, Nov. 18: Global implications of the aggregation of national security strategies
Class 22: Mon, Nov. 23: Geopolitical consequences of a successful shift from fossil fuels
Class 23: Wed, Nov. 25: Geopolitical consequences of a successful shift from fossil fuels(cont.)
Class 24: Mon, Nov. 30: Crafting U.S. energy strategy; energy independence; domestic responses; international institutions
Class 25: Wed, Dec. 2: Wrap up
