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Georgia Professional Standards Commission
Georgia TeacherSupply and Demand
Georgia Professional Standards Commission
Georgia Professional Standards Commission
Topics
• Student Enrollment Patterns• Educator Characteristics• Sources of Newly Hired Teachers• Teacher Attrition• Teacher Shortages• Projecting Teacher Staffing
Georgia Professional Standards Commission
Student EnrollmentDrives Teacher Demand
Georgia Professional Standards Commission
Student Enrollment Since 1994
FTE-1, October 1998 - 2008 February 17, 2009 © 2009 GaPSC
1,270,948
1,311,126
1,346,761
1,375,980
1,401,291
1,422,941
1,444,937
1,470,634
1,496,012
1,522,611
1,553,437
1,598,461
1,629,157
1,649,5891,655,792
1,250,000
1,300,000
1,350,000
1,400,000
1,450,000
1,500,000
1,550,000
1,600,000
1,650,000
1,700,000
1994-1995
1995-1996
1996-1997
1997-1998
1998-1999
1999-2000
2000-2001
2001-2002
2002-2003
2003-2004
2004-2005
2005-2006
2006-2007
2007-2008
2008-2009
Fa
ll S
tud
en
t E
nro
llm
en
t
School Year
Georgia Professional Standards Commission
Annual Growth in Georgia Public School Student Enrollment
© 2009 GaPSCFTE-1, October 1995 - 2008 April 9, 2009
40,178
35,635
29,219
25,31121,650
21,996
25,697
25,37826,599
30,826
34,692
30,696
20,432
6,203
45,024
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
1995-1996
1996-1997
1997-1998
1998-1999
1999-2000
2000-2001
2001-2002
2002-2003
2003-2004
2004-2005
2005-2006
2006-2007
2007-2008
2008-2009
Stu
de
nt
En
roll
me
nt
Gro
wth
School Year
Including 10,332 "Katrina" students
Georgia Professional Standards Commission
Student Enrollment by Racial Group:1994-1995 and 2008-2009 School Years
© 2009 GaPSCFTE-1, October 1995 and 2008 February 17, 2009
American Indian
2,6150.2%
Asian52,2053.2%
Hispanic166,27610.0%
MultiRacial53,6573.2%
Black624,668
37.7%
White756,371
45.7%
Student Enrollment2008-2009 School Year
American Indian
1,6400.1%
Asian19,0901.5%
Hispanic23,1881.8%
MultiRacial5,2610.4%
Black473,694
37.3%
White748,075
58.9%
Student Enrollment1994-1995 School Year
Georgia Professional Standards Commission
Educator Characteristics
Georgia Professional Standards Commission
Georgia P-12 Public School Educator Workforce:
School Years 1998-2008
1997-1998
1998-1999
1999-2000
2000-2001
2001-2002
2002-2003
2003-2004
2004-2005
2005-2006
2006-2007
2007-2008
Teachers 86,263 88,757 91,467 94,689 99,470 103,350 104,845 106,934 110,135 115,049 119,018
Student Svcs 7,536 8,200 8,419 8,797 9,347 9,695 9,789 10,066 10,427 11,005 11,562
Administrators 6,782 6,957 7,122 7,298 7,475 7,728 7,805 7,979 8,470 8,787 9,286
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
100,000
110,000
120,000
130,000
140,000
150,000
Nu
mb
er o
f Ed
uc
ato
rs
Teachers
Student Svcs
Administrators
© 2009 GaPSCFebruary 17, 2009CPI-2 1998 - 2008
Georgia Professional Standards Commission
Change in Racial Balance of Teacher Staffing:
1994-1995 and 2007-2008 School Years
© 2009 GaPSCCPI-2 Spring 1995 and 2008 February 17, 2009
American Indian
1620.1%
Asian983
0.8%
Hispanic1,5751.3%
MultiRacial377
0.3%
Black27,639
22.9%
White90,044
74.6%
Teacher Staffing2008-2009 School Year
AmericanIndian
770.1%Asian
1340.2%
Hispanic275
0.3%
MultiRacial5
0.01%
Black15,716
19.9%
White62,596
79.4%
Teacher Staffing1994-1995 School Year
Georgia Professional Standards Commission
Comparison of Teacher Ages:1997-1998 and 2007-2008 School Years
CPI-2, March 1998 and 2008 © 2009 GaPSCFebruary 17, 2009
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
4.0%
<24 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70
>70
Pe
rce
nt
of
Te
ac
he
rs
Teacher Age
School Year 1997-1998
School Year 2007-2008
Although average teacher age has increased only from 41.3 years to 42.0 years since 1998, the distribution of ages suggests that there is an older group of teachers in Georgia schools who may leave the classroom at an increased rate in future years. The average age increased only very slightly from the 2006-2007 school year, but the standard deviation increased by almost 0.5%, suggesting that some older teachers may have elected to remain in teaching somewhat longer. Their rate of departure may accelerate when the economy rebounds.
Georgia Professional Standards Commission
Sources of New Teachers
February 17, 2009
Georgia Professional Standards Commission
Sources of Newly Hired Georgia Teachers:
2007-2008 School Year
Based on CPI-2, March 2008 © 2009 GaPSCFebruary 17, 2009
Georgia Traditional Programs
3,10222.6%Nontraditional
Routes3,04722.2%
Other States3,95228.7%
Returning Teachers2,31016.8%
Othersources
4103.0%
Source Not Identified
9306.8%
Other sources: International Exchange, Reassigned f rom Administration or Student Services position
Georgia Professional Standards Commission
Teacher Attrition
Georgia Professional Standards Commission
Annual Percent Attrition of Teachers from the Georgia Public School Workforce:
1998-1999 through 2007-2008 School Years
Based on CPI-2, March 1998 – 2008 © 2009 GaPSCFebruary 17, 2009
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
1998-1999
1999-2000
2000-2001
2001-2002
2002-2003
2003-2004
2004-2005
2005-2006
2006-2007
2007-2008
Pe
rce
nt o
f Te
ac
he
r Wo
rkfo
rce
School Year
Transferred or Promoted to a Non-Teaching Position This Year
Did Not Return to a Georgia Public Education Position This Year
Shown are the attrition and promotion rates of all teachers each year regardless of experience. Departure attrition has been declining very slightly since 2003-2004 while the rate of promotions has risen, also very slightly.
Georgia Professional Standards Commission
Teacher Attrition and Promotion Percentages by Subject Area:
2007-2008 School Year
CPI-2, March 2006-2007 and 2007– 2008 © 2009 GaPSCFebruary 17, 2009
13.5%
9.0%
9.1%
9.2%
9.0%
8.4%
8.3%
7.9%
8.1%
6.5%
1.0%
2.9%
2.6%
2.2%
1.9%
2.1%
1.9%
1.1%
0.6%
1.8%
0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% 10% 11% 12% 13% 14% 15%
Foreign Language
CTAE
English/Language Arts
Mathematics
Science
Social Science
Special Education
Elementary
Arts
Health/PE
Percent of Teachers Who Did Not Return or Were Promoted
Ge
ne
ral S
ub
jec
t A
rea
Percent Attrition
Percent Promotion
Georgia Professional Standards Commission
Comparison of Traditional & Actual Retention of Teachers in the
Georgia Public School System
Based on CPI-2, March 1997 through 2007 © 2009 GaPSCMarch 12, 2009
89.5%
82.8%
76.7%72.8%
69.9%67.8% 66.2% 65.3%
89.3%
82.5%
76.0%71.5%
67.9%65.0%
62.2%60.0%
89.3%
80.9%
73.0%
66.9%
62.1%58.0%
54.4%51.3%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1 Year 2 Years 3 Years 4 Years 5 Years 6 Years 7 Years 8 Years
Pe
rce
nt o
f Te
ac
he
rs
Retention Recognizing Returns & Promotions
Retention Including Returns After Absence
Traditionally Calculated Teacher Retention
Retention (red) as typically reported only considers teachers' first departure from the public schools. The blue line adds the many teachers who return to teaching after absence. The green line includes teachers who stay, teachers who return after one or more years, and those who are promoted to administrative or student services positions. This graph averages the retention information of new teachers who first started teaching in the 1996-1997 through the 1998-1999 school years.
Georgia Professional Standards Commission
Teacher Shortages
Georgia Professional Standards Commission
Teacher ShortageFall 2008
Shortage is defined here as teachers of record (classroom teachers) who lack full certification, or in Georgia terminology Clear Renewable certification. These data are reported in terms of Full-Time Equivalents (FTEs). Some individuals teach in multiple areas. Many teach as only part of their total responsibilities. There were a total of 121,936 educators who were reported to have been teacher of record for at least part of the day during the fall count taken in October, 2008. Certification status was determined as of October 10, 2008.
Produced by GaPSC from GADOE CPI09-1 and GaPSC certification data. © 2009 GaPSCApril 16, 2009
Fully Certified91,638.1 90.7%
Not Fully Certified8,438.0 8.4%
Not Properly Certified1,539.0 8.6%
No PSC Certification
279.0 0.3%
General Education
Fully Certified13,135.4 73.5%
Not Fully Certified3,153.2 17.6%
NotProperly Certified1,539.0 8.6%
No PSC Certification
49.1 0.3%
Special Education
Georgia Professional Standards Commission
The Twelve Subject Areas with the Highest Number & Percent of Georgia Teachers
without Full Certification
Produced for the 2008-2009 school year by GaPSC for federal reporting of teacher shortage from GaDOE CPI09-1 and GaPSC certification data.
© 2009 GaPSCMarch 16, 2009
3,6
11
1,8
15
1,6
45
1,3
36
1,1
38
49
5
45
5
43
3
38
4
35
5
32
7
29
6
8.0
%
26
.9%
43
.2%
14
.0%
11.6
% 17
.1%
15
.6%
9.9
%
21
.7%
19
.5%
7.0
%
19
.8%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
Pe
rce
nt W
itho
ut F
ull C
ertific
atio
nN
um
be
r of T
ea
ch
ers
(Fu
ll T
ime
Eq
uiv
ale
nc
y)
Subject Area
Number (FTE) without full certification
Percent (FTE) without full certification
Georgia Professional Standards Commission
Projecting Teacher Staffing
Georgia Professional Standards Commission
Teacher Hiring Demand from Student Enrollment & Policy Change, Teacher
Attrition & Promotion
Based on CPI-2, March 1997 – 2008 © 2009 GaPSCFebruary 17, 2009
6,1877,012 7,466
8,595 8,303 8,6279,434 9,608 9,748 10,065 10,539
2,8192,495
2,710
3,2224,781 3,880 1,495
2,0893,201
4,914 3,969
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
1997-1998
1998-1999
1999-2000
2000-2001
2001-2002
2002-2003
2003-2004
2004-2005
2005-2006
2006-2007
2007-2008
Nu
mb
er
of
Te
ac
he
rs H
ire
d
School Year
Growth (Enrollment & Policy Change) Hires
Replacement (Attrition & Promotion) Hires
Georgia Professional Standards Commission
Georgia P-12 Actual and Projected Teacher Staffing:
1997-1998 through 2014-2015 School Years
Teacher staffing projections developed with Gaussian curvilinear regression model using student enrollment and student-teacher ratios. © 2009 GaPSCFebruary 17, 2009
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Actual Staffing 86,263 88,757 91,467 94,689 99,470 103,350 104,845 106,934 110,135 115,049 119,018
2007 Projection 115,250 118,302 121,543 124,939 128,454 132,059
Upper 95% Conf. Int. 125,913 127,235 128,146 128,882 129,463 129,915
2009 Projection 120,125 121,446 122,358 123,093 123,674 124,126
Lower 95% Conf. Int. 114,336 115,657 116,569 117,304 117,886 118,337
80,000
85,000
90,000
95,000
100,000
105,000
110,000
115,000
120,000
125,000
130,000
135,000
140,000
Nu
mb
er o
f Te
ac
her
s
School Year
Actual Staffing
2007 Projection
Upper 95% Conf. Int.
2009 Projection
Lower 95% Conf. Int.
Georgia Professional Standards Commission
Questions?