Geosciences and the future of Planet Earth – a hydrological

perspective

Kate Heal

School of GeoSciences

The University of Edinburghk.heal@ed.ac.uk

Water is essential for life• Water and health

– 1.8 million deaths annually from diarrhoeal disease, mainly <5 years

• Water and food– 70% available water used for irrigation

• Water as a hazard– 15% of deaths in natural disasters in floods

• Water and energy– 19% of electricity produced by hydropower– Hydropower development could reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 13%

• Increasing pressures on water resources

www.dunalastair.co.uk/images/700/Pitlochry-Dam.jpg

Therefore it should be easy for hydrologists to contribute to service of mankind…

Why we need hydrologists• Estimate surface and groundwater availability• Predict effects of land use and climate changes on water

quantity and quality• Assess water requirements of ecosystem services• Estimate frequency of occurrence and magnitude of

floods and droughts

But science required to address these questions• Measurement of hydrological processes and influences on them• Integrating data and models at different scales• Development of novel technologies and techniques in measurement

and modelling

Images: S. Hubbard

So why do we not hear much about hydrologists?• Society does not know what hydrology is• Hydrologists do not know what hydrology is• Intersection of “Hydrology” and “Water

Resource Management”• Hydrology rarely a separate subject at

school or university – Embedded within Engineering, Geography,

Forestry• Water is often politicised

– Human right to safe water and sanitation (UN General Assembly July 2010)

– UN Convention on the Law of the Non-navigational Uses of Shared Watercourses (1997) still not ratified

Multi-disciplinary nature of hydrology

(Acknowledgment: Harouna Karambiri)

The international water scene is flooded …• Many different actors with

different aims– UNESCO

• World Water Assessment Programme• International Hydrology Programme

– World Water Council– International Water Association– IAHS

• Many different venues– World Water Forum– Stockholm World Water Week– Singapore International Water Week

What should be the role of IUGG and IAHS?• Emphasise science and

scientists• Emphasise multi-

disciplinarity and interaction between associations

• Emphasise internationalism (cf. AGU), especially potential to engage with developing country scientists

What IAHS is doing: PUB• Predictions in Ungauged Basins (PUB) decade 2003-2012• www.iahs-pub.org• Primary aim of reducing uncertainty in hydrological predictions• Grass-roots movement, has evolved over time• Structure

– 4 biennia: initiation, growth, taking stock, consolidation– 8 science themes and working groups have developed which span 2 or

more themes– Science Steering Committee includes Theme leaders and young

hydrologists

• Will produce Benchmark Report “Runoff prediction in ungauged basins” to address the science question: How and how well can we estimate runoff characteristics in the absence of at-site runoff data?

What IAHS is doing: PUC• Next decade…Predictions under

Change (PUC): Water, Earth and Biota in the Anthropocene research agenda (Murugesu Sivapalan)– See Wagener et al. (2010) WRR 46,

W05301

• Future research agenda– Humans part of the hydrologic

system

Sivapalan (Ed.) Predictions under Change: Water, Earth and Biota in the Anthropocene, Draft, 18 April 2011

Application of the new framework to propose research to predict hydrological responses to watershed disturbance

Sivapalan (Ed.) Predictions under Change: Water, Earth and Biota in the Anthropocene, Draft, 18 April 2011

Enhancing the role of IUGG and IAHS• Lobby for funding for Geosciences

research and training• Encourage multi-disciplinarity and

interaction between Associations• Increase accessibility of meetings

and scientists to policy makers and the public– “Solutions from Students” Poster

competition at IUGG 2011– EGU outreach programme

• Encourage young scientists– Already funding towards meeting

participation– Masterclasses and mentoring (e.g. EGU,

ICGW)

Challenges to the IUGG and IAHS in realising service to mankind

• Communication of uncertainty to society and policy makers

• Different time-scales of policy making and science (short-term and reactive vs. long-term)

• Scientific career progression metrics do not incentivise engagement – though changing

• More training in science communication• Funding for outreach, communication and marketing

– No fee for IAHS• Strength: distinctive feature, accessibility• Weakness: limits resources for activities

Need to understand policy makersHydrologist Land-water planner

School of thought

IAHS, AGU, EGUJ. Hydrol., Water Resour. Res., Hydrol. Processes

IWA, AWWAWater Research, J. Water Policy, J. Water Resources Development

Training Specialist training, hydrological theory, modelling, GIS

In situ problem solving and management

Key skills Advanced modelling, telemetry, GPS, GIS, remote sensing, DSS

Regulatory and legislative understanding, knowledge of local problems

Contribution to river basin management

Constantly building models and acquiring data of little use to the land use planner

Asking poorly posed questions; refusal to accept “we do not know exactly” as a true answer

(Quinn et al., 2004)

How to increase interaction between scientists and policy makers

• Demonstrate gains from policy based on good science• Emphasise financial aspects• Understand policy making processes• More effective communication• Policy maker involvement in research• Demonstration sites• Training and capacity building

Develop appropriate communication toolsCatchm ent Scale M eta M odels

(M I R ), G I S - produce riskindicators

informdecisionmaking

‘political w ill’message +

the mandatebest farm ing

practice

inform ingend users

change inlocal land use

scale anduncertainty

Catchm ent ScaleStrategic Plann ing -use risk indicatorsM o n ito rin g s ite : flo w + w ate r q u a lity

Education Too ls(TopM anage)

StakeholderW orkshops

Physically-basedM odels (EPI C )

D ecisionSupport

Tools(DSM )

ResearchCatchment

(Quinn et al., 2004)

Q1 Total P loadingQ2 Type of P appliedQ3 S ludge farmyard manure and fertiliser management Q4 Crop and Tillage regime Q5 Current Soil P index

,

Answer

high

zero, very low, low, medium,

very h igh

Fertiliserapplication and soil management

Flow connectivity

Result

Risk loss assessm ent for P load ing and so il m anagem ent

Translate scientific knowledge into risk assessment matrices

Darker shading indicates high risk

Phosphorus Export Risk Matrix for a field/fields (Hewett et al., 2004)

Low-medium risk High risk

Conclusions• IUGG and IAHS

– Need to demonstrate IMPACT of Geosciences to policy makers

– Lobbying for funding for Geosciences measurement, research and training

– More public and policy maker engagement

• Grass-roots scientific initiatives important

• Individual responsibility of scientists– Engage with policy makers/society

wherever possible– Make research results more accessible

(Acknowledgment: Harouna Karambiri)

And finally…