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Flow Chart Cash Flow Proyek PB
( - )
( - )
Gambar 3 Kontrak Kerjasama Panas Bumi
INDONESIA TAKE
Cost Recovery
Investment Allowance
Tax Contractor Share
Gross Revenue
TOTAL CONTRACTOR SHARE
Contractor Cash Flow
Cost
Economic parameters analysis:
Revenue. Tangible investment, non-capital investment (intangible) Expenses. Depreciation and Amortization Taxable income Tax Cash flow Economic Indicator : Net Present Value, Rate of Return, Productivity Index (PI), Pay Out Time (POT)
Revenue
Electrical generation per year = MW x t x CF
Revenue= MW x t x CF x P
where:
MW = electrical geneartion capacity (Mwe)
t = electrical generation period in one year
(hour)
CF = Capacity factor (fraction)
P = Electricity price ($/MWh)
Capacity Factor (CF)
Ratio of the actual output of a power plant over a period of time and its potential output if it had operated at full name plate capacity the entire time.
Revenue from CDM
R = PET x P where : R = Revenue CDM ($) PET = Annual emission reduction/CER (Ton/year) P = Emission price ($/Ton) or: Annual income = MW x 8760 (jam) x Load Factor
(fraction) x CO2 reduction (ton/MWh) x CDM price ($/ton)
Emission Reduction for Geothermal
International Geothermal Association (IGA) in year 2001 conduct the analysis for CO2 emission from geothermal power plants with total capacity of 4325 Mwe. The result shows that the avarage CO2 emission is 110 gram/kWh. While in the same year, of 580 MW geothermal installed capacity in Indonesia the average C02 emission is 69.2 gram/kWh. In Philippines, of 1124 MW installed capacity, the emission is approximately of 94.1gram/kWh. The average CO2 emission globally from geothermal power plant is less than 100 gram/kWh.
Comparison
Data from New Zealand Energy Efficiency and Conservation Authority on CO2 emission from fossil fuel power plant:
Coal power plant efficiency 35% = 915gram/kWh Diesel power plant efficiency 35% = 760 gram /kWh Combined Cycle (Gas and vapor) efficiency 55% = 345
gram/kWh
Therefore, if combined (natural gas) cycle power plant is replaced by geothermal, it reduces emission up to 245 gram/kWh. Oil power plant can reduce emission 660 gram/kWh and coal power plant can reduce 815 gram/ kWh.
Revenue from CDM
Nowadays, selling price of CER in international market ranges from 2.8 – 15 US$ per ton CO2.
Jangka waktu penjualan CER berdasarkan mekanisme CDM adalah 10 tahun kontrak yang tidak dapat diperbaharui, atau 7 tahun kontrak yang dapat diperbaharui sebanyak 2 kali dengan jangka waktu yang sama.
Upstream Investment
Upstream Investment consist of: Well cost Land preparation cost for well, access road Cost for fluid transmitting from well to PLTP Additional facility
Investastment
Downstream Investment (Power Plant)
Detailed engineering. Access road, land cost and excavation. Fasilitas pembangkit listrik (plant equipment), construction and installation. Construction of PLTP, office, laboratory, general facility and other cost (civil work).
Investasi Kapital & Non Kapital
Investasi kapital adalah investasi yang dikeluarkan untuk membeli barang yang berwujud dan memiliki umur pakai sehingga seiring dengan waktu terdapat pengurangan nilai berupa depresiasi akibat dari pemakaian barang tersebut. Dalam proyek pengembangan panasbumi yang termasuk kedalam investasi kapital adalah peralatan pengeboran, fasilitas produksi, pembangunan gedung, dan peralatan power plant. Investasi non kapital adalah investasi yang dikeluarkan untuk membayar jasa yang diberikan oleh pihak lain untuk menyelesaikan suatu pekerjaan. Walaupun investasi non kapital tidak memiliki wujud, akan tetapi memiliki umur manfaat lebih dari 1 tahun sehingga dapat dinyatakan sebagai aset dan memiliki pengurangan nilai seiring dengan waktu berupa amortisasi. Dalam proyek pengembangan panasbumi, yang termasuk kedalam investasi non kapital adalah jasa pengeboran dan pembangunan infrastruktur.
Menurut beberapa praktisi panasbumi investasi intangible biasanya sekitar 70% dari biaya sumur (well cost) di tambah dengan penyiapan lahan untuk sumur, jalan masuk ke lokasi (land cost, access, site work). Diluar biaya itu, yaitu biaya untuk mengalirkan uap dari sumur ke PLTP ditambah 30% dari well cost, termasuk biaya tangible (Investasi Tangible). semua investasi yang berkaitan dengan pembangkitan energi listrik tersebut diatas termasuk kedalam investasi kapital.
Expense
Expense is adalah pengeluaran untuk membayar jasa yang diberikan oleh pihak lain untuk menyelesaikan suatu pekerjaan dengan umur manfaat kurang dari 1 tahun.
Expense dibedakan berdasarkan tahap pengembangan, yaitu:
Expense yang berkaitan dengan penyediaan uap (Expense Steam Field Development). Expense yang berkaitan dengan pembangkitan energi listrik (Expense Power Plant Development).
Expense Upstream
Geology and Geophysical surveys Core holes Analysis Resource study Environmental study Reservoir study Operating cost
According to some experts, steam supply
operation cost is approximately 3% of cummulative steam supply capital investment (Total Capital Steam Field Development).
Expense Downstream
The expense related to electric generation cost limited to operation and maintenance cost. According to some expert, the amount of geothermal generation is around US$ 3-5/MWh.
Depreciation & Amortization
Depreciation can refer to the decline in an asset’s value due to its use in business activities. Amortization is the gradual reduction of the value of an asset or liability by some periodic amount.
Can be calculate using Straight Line or
Declining Balance.
Taxable income
Taxable income = Revenue – Depresiasi Total – Expense - Interest Deduction
Developer has the obligation to pay tax if taxable
income cumulative has a positive value. Number of paid tax is current taxable income
multiply by geothermal tax. Income tax = Taxable income x tax untuk panasbumi
GEOTHERMAL TAX SYSTEM DEVELOPMENT IN
INDONESIA
Elemen
Perpajakan
Kep. Men. Keu.
No. 746/KMK.012/198
1
(Generasi 1)
Kep. Men. Keu.
No. 766/KMK.04/19
92
(Generasi 2)
UURI No. 17 / 2000
Pajak Penghasilan
(Generasi 3)
Tarif Pajak Penghasilan 46% 34% 30%
PPN 10% Tidak ada Ada, dapat ditunda dan dapat diperoleh kembali
Ada, tidak dapat di- peroleh kembali
Royalti Tidak ada Tidak ada Ada
Bea Masuk Impor dan PPN Barang Operasi
Tidak dipungut Tidak dipungut Dipungut
Pungutan-pungutan Lain Tidak dipungut Ditanggung Pemerintah
Dipungut
Metode Depresiasi
Masa Depresiasi
Tarif Depresiasi
Switching
6 tahun
12,5% (kecuali tahun 3)
Declining Balance
7 tahun
28,57%
Tidak Diatur
Tidak Diatur
Tidak Diatur
Investment Tax Credit (Fasilitas perpajakan)
Ada
(4 tahun @ 5%)
Tidak ada Dimungkinkan
(Maksimum 30%)
THE DEVELOPMENT OF GEOTHERMAL REGULATION IN INDONESIA
Operation Contract
ASPEK PERPAJAKAN
2 Contract
ASPEK BISNIS
6 Contract
0 Contract
Penyempurnaan Pergantian
Pergantian Pergantian
Kep. Pres. No. 22
Tahun 1981
Kep. Pres. No. 45
Tahun 1991
Keputusan Presiden
No. 76 Tahun 2000
Kep. Pres. No. 23
Tahun 1981
Kep. Men. Keuangan
No. 746 Tahun 1981
Kep. Pres. No. 49
Tahun 1991
Kep. Men. Keuangan
No. 766 Tahun 1992
Undang-Undang
Yang Berlaku
(Termasuk UU RI No. 17
Tahun 2000)
Aspek Operasional Aspek Perpajakan
Perubahan
Penggantian
Penggantian
Penggantian
Undang-Undang
No, 27 Tahun 2003
Cashflow
Cashflow =
+ Loan Capital
+ Revenue
– Total investasi
– Total Expenses
– Interest
– Income Tax
– Principle Payment
Economic Indicators
NPV
POT
PI
IRR
n
tt
t
r
CFNPV
0 1
Io
NPVPI 1
mm
m
CCFCCF
CCFmPOT
1
0
0
10
n
tt
t
IRR
CF
Geothermal Development Budget Cost?
Exploration drilling and survey cost
Geothermal field development cost
Power plant development cost
Maintenance and operation cost
Quite vary from one prospect to the other (site spesific)
Depends on : The area and the type of survey conducted during
Chance of success of well exploration drilling
The amount of planned electric capacity
Well potential
Number of production, injection, make-up, and, cold well
Exploration Cost
•ACTIVITIES COST (US$)
Preliminary Survey phase 0.025 – 0.05 mil
Further Exploration 0.5 – 2 mil
Reliability phase (Exploration Drilling) 10-20 mil
Total Exploration Cost 10 – 22 juta
Exploration Cost Unit from Literature (Hence, 2005)
Cost (US$)
1 Pre-FS
-
1,000,000
- Temperature Profile 1,500,000
2 Exploration
- Exploration Drilling (6 well) @5mil US$ 30,000,000
- Rig Mobilitation/ Demobilitation 1,500,000
3 FS
- 100,000
- Infrastructue 7,500,000
41,600,000
Activities
Total
Geology, Geophysics, and Geochemistry
Survey
Environmental Analysis
Project Cost (55 MW) s.d. FS – Upstream (Source: Minerba Pabum)
Duration of Exploration Drilling
Kamojang : 50,2 days
Salak : 75,5 days
Darajat : 112,4 days
Dieng : 169,9 days
Lahendong : 98,6 days
Sibayak : 130,7 days
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
1998 2004 2005 2006 2007 NOP2007
Tahun
Sew
a R
ig U
S$/H
ari
INCREASING STATISTICS OF GEOTHERMAL RIG
RENT SERVICES COST
CAPACITY: 1500 HP
The increasing depends
on oil and gas cost
What is the average number of well output? It’s vary from around 1-2 MW to 25-30 MW Stefansson (2002) predicts 3.4±1.4 MW/km or 4.2±2.2 MW/well. The numbers came from the analysis carried out in 31 high temperature geothermal field in the world. Around 5 MW/km, taken from 4 well known geothermal field.
RECENT WELL COST Sumur Eksplorasi
Sukses Rasio : 50%
( 1 ) Jumlah Sumur : 2 sumur
( 2 ) Biaya Sumur : 5,500 US$ ribu per sumur
Sumur Pengembangan
Sukses Rasio : 80%
( 1 ) Jumlah Sumur Standar : - sumur
( 2 ) Biaya Sumur Standar : 4,000 US$ ribu per sumur
( 3 ) Jumlah Sumur Big Hole : 9
( 4 ) Biaya Sumur Big Hole : 5,000 US$ ribu per sumur
Sumur Injeksi
( 1 ) Jumlah Sumur : 2 sumur
( 2 ) Biaya Sumur : 5,000 US$ ribu per sumur
Sumur Make Up
( 1 ) Jumlah Sumur Big Hole : 7 sumur
( 2 ) Biaya Sumur Big Hole : 5,000 US$ ribu per sumur
Geothermal Field Development Budget Cost
Infrastructure
Supporting Facility Cost
Production Facility Well Pad
Separator
Pipe
Well cost
Infrastructure
Consist of cost needed to: - Land acquisition of road and wellsite
- Road construction
- Supporting features (Ware House, Laboratory,
Housing, Kitchen, Dining Room, Fire water tank,
Water treatment system, Roads & Paving)
From experience in geothermal field in Indonesia, cost
of infrastructure : IDR 5 – 10 mil
Production Facility Gathering System Cost per well
Cost/production well $327.000
Cost/injection well $285.000
Cost/dry well $47.000
Unit Cost of Separator $300.000
Detail & Cost Unit of Production Facility
Item Rate Unit
Transmission Pipe 30 $ / inch m
Insulation 85 $ / m pipa
Cost of Geothermal Power Plant
Biaya Investasi Pembangkit
y = 27.553Ln(x) - 49.539
R2 = 0.88090
20
40
60
80
100
120
0 20 40 60 80 100 120
Kapasitas Pembangkit, MW
Bia
ya In
vesta
si, ju
ta U
S$
Geothermal Power Plant Cost nowadays: 1.5 million/MW
(Mitsubishi dan Fuji Electric)
4 . 8 94.45
5.95
6.24
1.04
1.76
2.1
2.99
4.02
5.19
6.61 6.61
3.15
3.347
3.594
4.2
4 . 7 2 4
3.724
4.1364.271
4.521 4.55
5.07
5.33
4.2
4.4914.644
4.793
5.45
4.917
5.414
4.915.06
5.339 5.376
3.687
3.5434.03
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
4.5
5
5.5
6
6.5
7
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007YEAR
Geo
therm
al E
nerg
y P
rice
(cen
t U
S$/k
Wh
)
Regional tarif of. Elect. In Bali Steam Price of SalakElectricity price of Darajat Electricity price of SalakSteam price of Kamojang Steam price of darajat
GEOTHERMAL ENERGY PRICING IN INDONESIA
KOB, BEL Bedugul : 70% * Regional Tariff
KAMOJANG STEAM PRICE TIED TO DOMESTIC OIL PRICE,
FORMULTED (KEPMEN P & ENo. 269/1983):
PRICE/kWh =80 % x 0.28 l/kWh x FUEL OIL/liter
Current KMJ price: = Rp. 611,07 ~ 6.64 cents US $/kWh
Small scale electricity price = 80 % x HPP ( Prov. Sumut 816)
Sibayak (2007)) = Rp.1195,-/kWh ~ 12.84 cents US $/kWh
STATUS :SEPTEMBER 2007
MNL electricity base price= 4.94 cents us $/kWh
36
Geothermal Benefits
Energy Value
Fuel Cost Reduction Value
Fuel Saving Value
Tax Value
Environmental Value
8.2 ¢$/kWh
0.3 ¢$/kWh
5.7 ¢$/kWh
1.6 ¢$/kWh
1.9 ¢$/kWh
Benchmark Price (Coal PP)
GOI can reduce subsidy
Exportable Value
GOI gets more tax
CO2 Reduction (@20$/t)
Total Value of Geothermal : 17.7 ¢$/kWh 11.9 ¢$/kWh
(Geothermal Selling Price) >
Hasil Study JICA untuk Depkeu, Juli 2009