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Getting Greener: New York State’s Energy Strategy
Presentation to:Rutgers Energy Institute
Seth HulkowerAugust 18, 2020
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Climate change is an existential crisis
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Energy Policy – the Three-Legged Stool
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Energy
Economics Environment
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New York’s Energy Policy…
Is all about the C’s…cutting carbon completely.
Actually, the focus is on all Greenhouse Gases (GHG)
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The Legislature and the Governor are on the Same Page for Energy Policy
Climate Leadership and Community Protection Act (CLCPA) of 2019• Cut GHG from 1990 level:
– 40% by 2030 and 85% (100% with offsets*) by 2050• Electric Power:
– 40% GHG cut by 2030 and 100% non-emitting by 2040– 70% renewables by 2030
• Efficiency:– Increase efficiency by 185 TBtu by 2025
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The CLCPA Adopts a Clear and Prescriptive Path to Achieve Climate Leadership Goals
The Law directs that• 6 Gigawatts (GW) of distributed
solar be installed by 2025• 3 GW of storage by 2030• 9 GW of offshore wind by 2035
Rather than set overall goals for renewables, the CLCPA selects specific technologies.
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Community Protection is Central to the Structure of the CLCPA
The Law directs that• A 22-member Climate Action Council be established
– Members come from State Government or appointees of the Legislature
• The Council must develop a Scoping Plan to meet the CLCPA goals, in consultation with:– Environmental Justice Working Group– Climate Justice Working Group– Just Transition Working Group
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New York is Already a Climate Leader
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LA WY AK ND IA TX NE SD IN WV OK AL MS KY MT KS AR TN SC MN NM OH ID WI IL PA ME MO DE WA VA MI GA CO UT DC NC NJ OR NV MD NH AZ MA VT FL CT CA HI NY RI
(Million Btu's per person)
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With the 3rd Largest Economy, NY is the 9thLargest GHG Emitter and has Cut the Most
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Texas California Florida Pennsylvania Louisiana Ohio Illinois Indiana New York Michigan
(Millions of metric tons of carbon dioxide, MMTCO2)
1990 2016
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Electric Power Consumption in New York Has Been Drifting Down since 2006
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135,000
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1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018
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NYCA Energy Weather Normalized
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New York cut GHG emissions by 8.5% from 1990 to 2015
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New York GHG Emissions by Sector(MMTCO2e)
Electricity Generation & Net Imports Transportation Residential Commercial Industrial Other
And needs to achieve steep reductions to meet CLCPA targets
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GHG Leadership Factors
• Urban Density– Multi-family homes– Mass Transit
• Shift from Manufacturing to Service and Finance Economy
• Shift from Coal to Natural Gas• Non-emitting resources
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Moving Backwards and Missing Opportunities for GHG Reductions
• Nuclear Power – Zero GHG energy source has begun shutting down across the state
• Natural Gas Pipelines – conversions to natural gas are being halted due to limits on new pipelines
• Imported hydro – until recently New York resisted bringing in more hydro power from Canada
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Shutting Nuclear Plants will eliminate most of electric power GHG gains over past 25 years
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New Hydro from Canada Should Have the Chance to Compete with other Renewables
• New hydro projects have not qualified for Renewable Energy Credits – putting these projects at a competitive disadvantage.
• Regulatory history on this policy is murky• In July 2020 NYSERDA floated the concept of a
Renewable Energy Tier for hydro specifically delivered to New York City
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State policy for hydro may be changing but still appears to be limited and selective
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Driving Electric Power GHG to Zero is Just a Start Towards Meeting Targets
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• Electric sector has dropped 13% from 1990 to 2015
• Electric is now only 17% of State’s GHG inventory
17%
33%
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New York GHG2015 MMTCO2e
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Deep Decarbonization of all Sectors is Needed to Meet GHG Targets
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• Transportation is now 33% of NYS GHG inventory– Almost 90% of transportation energy is petroleum products– Excluding jet fuel, ~800 TBtu of petroleum needs to be
replaced by electricity– Need between 37,000 and 49,000 additional GWH
• Residential and Commercial is now 25% of GHG– Most of that is space heating, roughly 557 TBtu– If all the space heating load could be served with heat
pumps, NYS would need an additional 40,000 GWH
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Not All Available Non-Emitting Resources Are Created Equal
ResourceUtility Scale Solar
NY Land Based Wind
Offshore Wind Nuclear
Capacity Factor
1 GW of Annual Output
1,750 GWH 2,280 GWH 4,200 GWH 7,880 GWH
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Deep Decarbonization Leads to a Massive Scaling Up of Renewable Power Construction
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Forecast of Resources to Meet CLCPA Electric Generation Goals, 2017-2040
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What’s Missing?
• No price signals• No trading of emissions between sectors• Not even any trading within sectors
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A Policy Path Forward for New York?
• Establish economy wide carbon pricing– Carbon tax or Cap-and-trade
• Look beyond New York’s borders for renewables– Push for Canadian hydro– Partner (don’t compete) with other states for renewables
• Retain nuclear power to retain the benefits of carbon avoidance
• Avoid self-imposed constraints– Add gas pipeline capacity
• Promote broad transportation alternatives
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Climate change is an existential crisis
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And we need to find economic and
efficient solutions
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Questions?
Contact info:
Seth [email protected]
www.strategic-energy.net
