G.gundegmaa Nyabo 2013

1

-

: 341400

______________________________

. /Ph.D / ______________________________

. //

______________________________

. /Sc.D, /

2013

2

. ,

1.1. ,

1.2. ,

. ,

-

2.1. -

,

2.2. ,

2.3. ,

3

XXI , ,

,

, ,

,

.

:

.

.

.

. -

.

: - ,

,

.

:

1. -

,

2. ,

3. ,

:

71

.

: - 2005-2012

,

, ,

4

.

: , ,

, .

: o

.

- :

, ,

, .

: 2 , 5 , , ,

.

:

5

: ,

1.1. ,

, , 1.

,

,

2.

3.

,

4 . ,

, ,

, ,

5.

6.

1. ,

2. ,

3. ,

4. ,

5. ,

1-.. 2009, 5 2.. 2006, , 8 3 .2000, 17 4.. 2006, , 9 5. . 2002, 20 6-.. 2009, 6

6

,

.

, ,

7.

,

8. :

1.

2.

,

, .

.

.

,

.

,

, 9.

. : ,

7 .2000, 15 8.. 1996, 20 9 .. 2006, , 4

7

10

,

, ,

.

, , ,

,

, ,

.

.

.

, , ,

,

.

.

, ,

.

11.

, , 12.

, .

, ,

10 . 2002, 21 11 . 2002, 27 12.. 1996, 25

8

, ,

,

.

, . , , ,

, .

. ,

, , .

, ,

, ,

13.

.14 :

1.

,

2. ,

3.

,

4. - - ,

5. ,

6.

,

7. ,

8. , ,

.

13 .. 1996, 25 14 . 2000, 283

9

15.

, ,

2 16.

:

.

:

.

, 2 17.

. : ,

. : ,

18.

.

15.. 1996, 26 16-.. 2009, 7 17.. 1996, 27 18.. 1996, 28

10

.

1.

+

=

+

+ +

=

:

:

:

=

, ,

+

+

=

:

:

=

,

: 25

11

,

, ,

.

19. :

1. ,

,

.

2.

.

, ,

, , ,

20.

3. ,

,

.

21.

4. ,

,

,

.

, , , , ,

, ,

22.

19.. 1996, 12 20 .. 1996, 13 21 .. 1996, 14 22

.. 1996, 15

12

5. ,

2

. ,

, ,

, , , ,

23.

.

1.2. ,

,

24 .

, , 25.

:

1. ,

,

2. ,

,

3. ,

4. ,

5.

6. ,

7. .

3 26.

1. 23 .. 1996, 15 24

. 2000, 280 25.. 2006 , 8 26.. 2006 , 8

13

2.

3.

:

27.

,

28.

:

29.

30.

:

31.

, ,

, .

:

,

27.. 1996, 81 28 . 2000, 285 29... 1996, 84 30 ., 2000, 287 31.. 1996, 83

14

,

.

:

.

.

, .

, ,

.

:

v , v v v ,

v .

.

100- .

.

.

15

.

, , ,

.

, . ,

.

.

. .

i .

,

: iq= q1/q0

iZ= Z1/Z0

iP= P1/P0

it= t1 / t0

q1 //

q0 //

Z1

Z0

P1 //

P0 //

t1 //

t0 //

I . :

16

=

=

:

=

=

- ,

- ,

- ,

- ,

- ,

-

,

- ,

-

,

.

.

,

.

1. :

17

= 2.

= 3. , :

4. , :

: q- ,

z- ,

p- ,

qT

q1

zT

z1

pT

p1

,

,

.

.

.

18

.

.

.

:

.

1

.

=

, ,

.

19

: -

2004 10- 01- 50,0

51% , 49 %

.

, ,

, .

71 .

, , , 4

.

: ,

.

,

.

1.

2.

3.

4.

5.

6. ,

7.

8.

20

-

2.

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

.. 9259 10134 10521 11218 11479.2 12878 15107 16534

.. 266.1 287.3 281.5 294.8 299.3 339.7 340.1 344.3

% 3 2.9 2.7 2.7 2.6 2.7 2.3 2.3

.. 992.7 9827 10240 10922,8 11179.9 12538 14767 16190

.. 2518 2457 2560 2706.5 2662 2824 3396.4 3723.7

% 28 25 25 24.90 23.8 22.5 19.3 23

.. 1079 884.4 921.6 975.1 811 869.8 1033.7 1133.3

% 12 9 9 8.9 7.9 6.9 5.7 7

- .. 296.6 292.5 288.5 287.9 284.5 284.5 277.1 278.2

- 2185 2761 2412.6 2324.4 2557.5 2464 2525.6 3124.5

30.8 30.8 34.9 39 31.1 23.3 30.8 .. 5.5 3.2 5.9 4.8 3.9 3.7 3.4

// 262.4 309.7 290.4 410 434.6 393.6 355.6 433.1

/ 758 859.4 914 1544 1465 1388 1428 1480

/ 891.8 1011 1075.3 1816.5 1723.5 1623.9 1680 1710

// 60.5 61.3 61.4 67.3 68.7 68.7 67.4 68

: -

- 2005-2012

.

.

:

21

1.

:

,

.

,

,

.

, ,

, ,

.

,

.

. :

, .

9258.810133.9 10521.4

11217.6 11479.212877.7

15106.916534.4

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

18000

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

22

" " - ()

3.

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

1 82 84 81 86 82 75 73 75

2 / 1.8 1.7 2.5 1.9 1.7 2.1 1.5 1.9

3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1

4 1.4 1.3 0.9 0.6 1.1 1.6 1.2 1.1

5 1.3 1.4 1.2 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3

6 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3

7 3.9 3.1 4.1 3.8 4.5 4.9 6.5 7.4

8 0.9 0.6 0.8 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.9 1.0

9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

10 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0

11 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1

12 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1

13

0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1

14 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

15

1.3 0.7 1.8 1.6 2.2 2.5 2.2 2.1

16 5.2 4.7 5.0 3.0 5.7 9.6 8.6 6.5

17 1.2 0.8 1.1 0.8 0.8 0.8 1.1 1.2

18 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.5 1.3 3.5 1.8

100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100

:

1. 2005 82%-

2008 , 2008 86%-

2009-2012 73-75% .

2. 2006 3.1%-

2007 4.1% 1%, 2009-2012 4.5-7.4%

.

3. 2005 1.4%- 2006-2008

1.3-0.6%-, 2009-2010 1.1%-1.6%, 2011-2012 1.2%-1.1%

.

23

:

1.

.

2.

.

3. 2010 2011

.

4. 2009 .

- 4

4.

2005 2006 2007 2008 4

1 1927798 81.7 2565135 84.3 2397187 80.6 3845670 85.9 2683948 83.1

2 / 41860 1.77 50890 1.67 73427 2.469 83670 1.87 62461.75 1.95 3 32943 1.4 38757 1.27 28249 0.95 27762 0.62 31927.75 1.06

4 30014 1.27 42697 1.4 35078 1.179 17144 0.38 31233.25 1.06

I 2032615 86.1 2697479 88.6 2533941 85.2 3974246 88.7 2809570 87.2

1 91565 3.88 94017 3.09 122403 4.116 171885 3.84 119967.5 3.73

2 20126 0.85 18803 0.62 24481 0.823 22345 0.5 21438.75 0.7 II 111691 4.73 112820 3.71 146884 4.939 194230 4.34 141406.3 4.43

1 6715 0.28 7152 0.24 7267 0.244 9694 0.22 7707 0.25 2 9259 0.39 9122 0.3 14690 0.494 16523 0.37 12398.5 0.39

3 580 0.02 215 0.01 267 0.009 1620 0.04 670.5 0.02

4 1544 0.07 749 0.02 2292 0.077 2267 0.05 1713 0.05 5 2657 0.11 2197 0.07 3906 0.131 3639 0.08 3099.75 0.1

6 5129 0.22 5226 0.17 5572 0.187 7011 0.16 5734.5 0.18

7 3759 0.16 5794 0.19 5338 0.179 3437 0.08 4582 0.15

8 316 0.01 592 0.02 210 0.007 295 0.01 353.25 0.01

9 31707 1.34 21805 0.72 53889 1.812 71557 1.6 44739.5 1.37

10 123600 5.24 142939 4.7 148911 5.007 133811 2.99 137315.3 4.48

12 2647 0.11 12233 0.4 18899 0.635 25139 0.56 14729.5 0.43

III 187913 7.96 208024 6.84 261241 8.784 274993 6.14 233042.8 7.43 1 2332219 98.8 3018323 99.2 2942066 98.9 4443469 99.2 3184019 99

2 27252 1.2 24564 0.8 31985 1.1 34691 0.8 29623 1 2359471 100 3042887 100 2974051 100 4478160 100 3213642 100

:

24

- 4

5.

2009 2010 2011 2012 4

1 3975708 81.8 3716242 75.3 3848646 73.3 5325613 75.9 4216552 76.6 2 / 80377 1.65 102352 2.07 76964 1.47 135897 1.94 98897.5 1.78 3 53154 1.09 79740 1.62 60661 1.16 74046 1.06 66900.3 1.23 4 8093 0.17 11204 0.23 13937 0.27 19855 0.28 13272.3 0.24

I 4117332 84.7 3909538 79.2 4000208 76.2 5555411 79.2 4395622 79.8 1 219538 4.52 243480 4.93 342381 6.52 519131 7.4 331133 5.84 2 29664 0.61 31652 0.64 48114 0.92 71677 1.02 45276.8 0.8 II 249202 5.13 275132 5.57 390495 7.44 590808 8.42 376409 6.64 1 12353 0.25 9334 0.19 9715 0.19 9645 0.14 10261.8 0.19 2 15484 0.32 18415 0.37 22452 0.43 24562 0.35 20228.3 0.37 3 429 0.01 371 0.01 449 0.01 565 0.01 453.5 0.01 4 3056 0.06 1845 0.04 2852 0.05 2878 0.04 2657.75 0.05 5 6641 0.14 6730 0.14 6485 0.12 7790 0.11 6911.5 0.13 6 5029 0.1 2931 0.06 2999 0.06 3637 0.05 3649 0.07 7 2611 0.05 11613 0.24 7014 0.13 7936 0.11 7293.5 0.13 8 250 0.01 60 0 0 0 0 0 77.5 0

9 105203 2.17 121056 2.45 117318 2.23 148085 2.11 122916 2.24

10 278171 5.72 471482 9.55 449082 8.55 455779 6.5 413629 7.58 12 25797 0.53 66336 1.34 185854 3.54 124144 1.77 100533 1.8 III 455024 9.36 710173 14.4 804220 15.3 785021 11.2 688610 12.6 1 4821558 99.2 4894843 99.2 5194923 98.9 6931240 98.8 5460641 99 2 37352 0.8 41359 0.8 55529 1.1 81527 1.2 53941.8 1 4858910 100 4936202 100 5250452 100 7012767 100 5514583 100

:

.

2012 :

. .

.

25

4 :

6.

2005 2006 2007 2008

4

1 2032615 2697479 2533941 3974246 11238281 87.2

2 111691 112820 146884 194230 565625 4.5

3 187913 208024 261241 274993 932171 7.3 4 27252 24564 31985 34691 118492 1 2359471 3042887 2974051 4478160 12854569 100

:

2005-2008 4 87,2%-

83,5%-

. 4,5%-

3,7% .

7,3%- 4,3%

. 1% .

4 :

7.

2009 2010 2011 2012

4

1 4117332 3909538 4000208 5555411 17582489 79.8 2 249202 275132 390495 590808 1505637 6.6 3 455024 710173 804220 785021 2754438 12.6

4 37352 41359 55529 81527 215767 1

4858910 4936202 5250452 7012767 22058331 100 :

2009-2012 4 79,8%-

76,5%- .

6,6%-

6%- . 12,6%-

7,5% .

1%- .

26

- ,

,

.

" " -

4 85-

4 -

.

2009

.

:

1) ,

2)

3) ,

4) ,

5) ,

6) -

.

.

1. 2 24

.

2.

.

3.

.

27

, , ,

:

4

8.

/ 2005 2006 2007 2008

1 9258.8 10133.9 10521.4 11217.6

2 / / 266.1 287.3 281.5 294.8

3 8992.7 9846.6 10239.9 10922.8 4 262.4 309.7 290.4 410 5 2032615 226 2697479 274 2533941 247 3974246 364 6 111691 12.42 112820 11.5 146884 14.3 194230 18 7 187913 20.9 208024 21.1 261241 25.5 274993 25 8 27252 3.03 24564 2.49 31985 3.12 34691 3.2 2359471 262.4 3042887 309 2974051 290 4478160 410

:

4

9.

/ 2009 2010 2011 2012

1 11479.2 12877.7 15106.9 16534.4

2 / / 299.3 339.7 340.1 344.3

3 11179.9 12538 14766.8 16190.1 4 434.6 393.6 355.6 433.1 5 4117332 368 3909538 312 4000208 271 5555411 343 6 249202 22.3 275132 22 390495 26.4 590808 36 7 455024 40.7 710173 57 804220 54.5 785021 48 8 37352 3.34 41359 3.3 55529 3.76 81527 5

4858910 434.6 4936202 393.6 5250452 355.6 7012767 433 :

:

, ,

,

- 2007-2012

.

28

2007-2008

10.

2007

2008 1 (q) 10521.4 11217.6

2 (z) 290.4 410

: -

1. :

iq1= q/q0=11217.6/10521.4=1.06

6%

.

2. :

iZ1= Z/Z0=410/290.4=1.41

41%-

.

2008-2009

11.

2008

2009

1 (q) 11217.6 11479.2

2 (z) 410 434.6

: -

1. :

iq1= q/q0=11479.2/11217.6=1.02

2%

.

29

2. :

iZ1= Z/Z0=434.6/410=1.06

6%-

.

2009-2010

12.

2009

2010 1 (q) 11479.2 12877.7

2 (z) 434.6 393.6

: -

1. :

iq1= q/q0=12877.7/11479.2=1.12

12%

.

2. :

iZ1= Z/Z0=393.6/434.6=0.9

10%- .

2010-2011

13.

2010

2011 1 (q) 12877.7 15106.9

2 (z) 393.6 355.6

: -

30

1. :

iq1= q/q0=15106.9/12877.7=1.17

17%

.

2. :

iZ1= Z/Z0=355.6/393.6=0.9

10%-

.

2010-2011

14.

2011

2012 1 (q) 15106.9 16534

2 (z) 355.6 433.1

: -

1. :

iq1= q/q0=16534/15106.9=1.09

9%

.

2. :

iZ1= Z/Z0=433.1/355.6=1.21

21%-

.

31

2007-2008 :

15.

2007

2008

Z0 ZT qT qTz qz0

290.4 410 11217.6 4599216 3257591.04

:

= = 45992163257591.04 = 1.41 4599216-325759.1=1341624.9

41%- .

2008-2009 :

16.

2008

2009

Z0 ZT qT qTz qz0

410 434.6 11479.6 4989043.16 4706636

:

= = 4989043.164706636 = 1.06

32

4989043.16-4706636=282497.16

6%- .

2009-2010 :

17.

2009

2010

Z0 ZT qT qTz qz0

434.6 393.6 12877.7 5068662.72 5596648.42

:

= = 5068662.725596648.42 = 0.9 5068662.72-5596648.42= -527985.7

.

2010-2011 :

18.

2010

2011

Z0 ZT qT qTz qz0

393.6 355.6 15106.9 537276.04 5946075.84

:

= = 537276.045946075.84 = 0.09

33

537276.04-5946075.84= -5408799.8

.

2011-2012 :

19.

2011

2012

Z0 ZT qT qTz qz0

355.6 433.1 16534 7160875.4 5879490.4

:

= = 7160875.45879490.4 = 1.21 7160875.4-5879490.4=1281385

21%- .

34

- 2007-2012

.

2007-2008

20.

Z q P qZ qP

290.4 10521.4 61.4 3055414.6 646013.96

Z1 q1 P1 q1Z1 q1P1 q1z q1p

410 11217.6 67.3 4599216 754944.48 3257591 688760.6

:

1) :

= = 3055414.6646013.96 = 4.72 = 472

2)

= = 4599216754944.48 = 6.09 = 609

3)

:

35

= = 3257591688760.6 = 4.72 = 472

4) ,

:

= = 4599216688760.6 = 6.67 = 667

=

:

= 609472 = 1.29 = 129

609-472=137 29%-

.

,

,

.

.

.

= 609667 = 0.91 = 91% 100%-91% = 9%-

667-609=58 . . .

.

= 667472 = 1.41 = 141%

36

472 667 = 195 . . .

:

= 472472 = 1 = 100%

.

1 =1 .

.= 3.72

2008-2009

21.

Z q P qZ qP

410 11217.6 67.3 4599216 754944.4

Z1 q1 P1 q1Z1 q1P1 q1Z q1p

434.6 11479.2 68.7 4988860.3 788621 4706472 772550.1

:

37

1) :

= = 4599216754944.4 = 6.09 = 609

2)

= = 4988860.3788621 = 6.32 = 632

3)

:

= = 4706472772550.1 = 6.09 = 609

4) ,

:

= = 4988860.3772550.1 = 6.45 = 645

=

:

= 632609 = 1.03 = 103%

632-609=23 3%-

.

,

,

.

.

.

38

= 632645 = 0.97 = 97% 100%-97%= 3%- 645-632=13 . .

.

.

= 645609 = 1.05 = 105%

609 645 = 36 . . .

:

= 609609 = 1 = 100%

.

1 =1 410

67.3 = 5.09

39

2009-2010

22.

Z q P qZ qP

434.6 11479.2 68.7 4988860.3 788621

Z1 q1 P1 q1Z1 q1P1 q1Z q1P

393.6 12877.7 68.7 5068662.7 884697.9 5596648.4 884697.9

:

1) :

Ipz = q Z q P = 4988860.3788621 = 6.32 = 632

2) pz = q Zq P = 5068662.7884697.9 = 5.72 = 572

3)

:

40

Ipz = q Z q P = 5596648.4884697.9 = 6.32 = 632

4) ,

:

Ipz = q Z q P = 5068662.7884697.9 = 5.72 = 572 IpzIpz = q Zq P : q Z q P = 572632 = 0.9 = 90%

572-632=-60 10%-

.

,

,

.

.

.

q Z q P q Zq P = 572572 = 1 = 100%

.

.

q Z q P q Z q P = 572632 = 0.9 = 90%

632 572 = 60 . .

41

.

:

q Z q P q Z q P = 632632 = 1 = 100%

.

1 =1 .

.= 5.32

2010-2011

23.

Z q P qZ qP

393.6 12877.7 68.7 5068662.7 884697.9


355.6 15106.9 67.4 5372013.6 1018205 5946075.8 1037844

:

1) :

42

Ipz = q Z q P = 5068662.7884697.9 = 5.72 = 572

2) pz = q Zq P = 5372013.61018205 = 5.27 = 527

3)

:

Ipz = q Z q P = 5946075.81037844 = 5.72 = 572

4) ,

:

Ipz = q Z q P = 5372013.61037844 = 5.17 = 517 IpzIpz = q Zq P : q Z q P = 527572 = 0.92 = 92

527-572=-45 8%-

.

,

,

.

.

.

q Z q P q Z q P = 527517 = 1.01 = 101%

43

1%- .

.

.

q Z q P q Z q P = 517572 = 0.9 = 90%

572 517 = 55 . 10% . .

:

q Z q P q Z q P = 572572 = 1 = 100%

.

1 =1 393.6

68.7 = 4.72

44

2011-2012

24.

Z q P qZ qP

355.6 15106.9 67.4 5372013.6 1018205


433.1 16534.4 68 7161048.6 1124339.2 5879632.6 1114418.5

:

1) : Ipz = q Z q P = 5372013.61018205 = 5.27 = 527

2) pz = q Zq P = 7161048.61124339.2 = 6.36 = 636

3) : Ipz = q Z q1 PT = 5879632.61114418.5 = 5.27 = 527

4) ,

:

45

IpzT = q1 Z1 q1 PT = 7161048.61114418.5 = 6.42 = 642 Ipz1IpzT

= q1 Z1 q1 P1

: qT ZT qT PT

= 636527 = 1.2 = 120%

636-527=109 20%-

.

,

,

.

.

.

q1 Z1 q1 P1

q1 Z1 q1 PT

= 636642 = 0.99 = 99% 1%- .

.

.

q1 Z1 q1 PT

q1 Z q1 PT

= 642527 = 1.21 = 121%

527 642 = 115 . . .

:

q1 ZT q1 PT

qT ZT qT PT

= 527527

= 1 = 100%

46

.

1 ZTPT=1 355.6

67.4 = 4.27

2007-2008

Z0=290.4

qo=10521.4 q1=11217.6

P0=61.4

= q0 Z0 q0 P0

= 3055414.5646013.96 = 4.72 =* q1 p0 =4.72*688760.6=3250.

2008-2009

Z0=410

qo=11217.6 q1=11479.2

P0=67.3

= q0 Z0 q0 P0

= 4599216754944.4 = 6.09 =* q1 p0 =6,09*772550,1=4704 .

2009-2010

Z0=434.6

qo=11479.2 q1=12877.7

47

P0=68.7

= q0 Z0 q0 P0

= 4988860788621 = 6.32 =* q1 p0 =6.32*=884 .

2010-2011

Z0=393.6

qo=12877.7 q1=15106.9

P0=68.7

= q0 Z0 q0 P0

= 5068662.7884697.9 = 5.72 =* q1 p0 =5.72*1037844=5936.

2011-2012

Z0=355.6

qo=15106.9 q1=16534.4

P0=67.4

= q0 Z0 q0 P0

= 5372013.61018205 = 5.27 =* q1 p0 =5.72*1114418.5=6374.

48

- 6

2007 81%-

2008-2009 82-86%

. 2010 75%, 2011 73%, 2012 75%

- .

" - ,

:

1. ,

2. ,

3.

4. ,

5. , .

:

1) ,

2)

3) ,

4) ,

5) ,

6) -

.

:

1.

,

2. 1

,

49

3. 1

,

.

50

1. . 2000, 10

2. .. 1996,

3. -.. 2009, ,

4. .. 2004,

,

5. .. 2002, ,

,

6. .. 2006, ,

7. .. 2005, -1

8. .. 2009, -1

9. ., .. 1997,

10. .. 1999,

1. 2010

2. - 2007-2012

51

-1

" " - /

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

1 1927798 2565135 2397187 3845670 3975708 3716242 3848646 5325613 2 / 41860 50890 73427 83670 80377 102352 76964 135897 3 6715 7152 7267 9694 12353 9334 9715 9645 4 32943 38757 28249 27762 53154 79740 60661 74046 5 30014 42697 35078 17144 8093 11204 13937 19855 6 9259 9122 14690 16523 15484 18415 22452 24562 7 91565 94017 122403 171885 219538 243480 342381 519131 8 20126 18803 24481 22345 29664 31652 48114 71677 9 580 215 267 1620 429 371 449 565 10 1544 749 2292 2267 3056 1845 2852 2878 11 2657 2197 3906 3639 6641 6730 6485 7790 12 5129 5226 5572 7011 5029 2931 2999 3637 13 3759 5794 5338 3437 2611 11613 7014 7936 14 316 592 210 295 250 60 0 0 15 31707 21805 53889 71557 105203 121056 117318 148085 16 123600 142939 148911 133811 278171 471482 449082 455779 17 27252 24564 31985 34691 37352 41359 55529 81527 18 2647 12233 18899 25139 25797 66336 185854 124144

2359471 3042887 2974051 4478160 4858910 4936202 5250452 7012767

: -

Documents

G.gundegmaa Nyabo 2013