GHG Emissions Reduction Potential in Asia for the Two Degree Target

Asia’s Low Carbon Future: Can Asia Change the World through

Mikiko Kainuma

Leapfrogging?

Mikiko Kainuma

Fellow, National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES)

LoCARNet Side Event at Japan Pavilion at COP19

Studies, (NIES)

15 November 2013

Pavilion at COP19

Can Asia Change the World through Leapfrogging?

a

High C b High Carbon

Climate catastrophe:

per capit Carbon

Locked in Society

High Carbon Locked‐in type Development

catastrophe:Significant Damage to   E d

missions p

Low Carbon

Leapfrog‐

Economy and Eco‐ System

GHG

 em Carbon 

Locked in Society Low Carbon 

SocietyBackcasting

Development

Development of Asia LCS ScenariosSocietyTime

(1) Depicting narrative scenarios for LCS(1) Depicting narrative scenarios for LCS(2) Quantifying future LCS visions(3) Developing robust roadmaps by backcasting 

Funded by the Ministry of the Environment, Japan (GERF, S-6) and NIES

http://2050.nies.go.jp/index.htmlPolicy Packages for Asia LCS 2

Ten Actions towards Low Carbon Asia are proposed

Structured Compact City

Urban Transport  Energy System

Low carbon energy system with l l

Action 1 Action 6

Structured Compact City

Mainstreaming trains and

Interregional Transport Agriculture & LivestockSpread of high yields and low

local resources

Action 2 Action 7Mainstreaming trains and water transportation

R &M t i l

Spread of high yields and low emission agricultural technologies

Action 3 Action 8Resources & Materials

Smart material use that realizes the full potential of resources

Forest & Landuse

Sustainable forest management

Action 3 Action 8

Technology and finance to f ili hi f LCS

Buildings Technology & Finance 

Smart buildings that tili t l t

g

Action 4 Action 9

facilitate achievement of LCS

Transparent and FairBiomass Governance

utilize natural systems

L l d ti d l lAction 5 Action 10

Transparent and Fair Governance that Supports LCS Asia

Local production and local consumption of biomass

There is potential to reduce GHG emissions by 69% compared to the reference case in Asia

• The global emissions will become 1.8 times larger compared to the 2005 level and emissions in Asia will be doubled under the reference scenario.scenario.

• It is feasible to reduce GHG emissions in Asia by 69% by introducing ten actions and Others (CH4 and N2O emissions from other than agriculture and livestock) appropriately compared to the reference

ear)

Action1: Urban Transport

Reductions by

agriculture and livestock) appropriately compared to the reference scenario in 2050.

GtC

O2e

/ye

Action2: Interregional TransportAction3: Resources & MaterialsAction4: BuildingsAction5: Biomass

ssio

ns (

G Action5: BiomassAction6: Energy SystemAction7: Agriculture and LivestockAction8: Forest & Landuse

GH

G e

mis Others (CH4 and N2O emissions from

other than agriculture and livestock

GHG Emissions inG

Asia (LCS)the world (LCS)the world (Reference)

Action 3: Resources & Materials

S-6-4: Moriguchi

Action 5: Local Production and Local Consumption of Biomass

Sustainable co-production of biomass energy and food Low carbon energy systems using local biomass resources in rural

areasareas Improvement of living environments with intensive biomass utilization

Primary energy supply: Reference scenario(left) and LCS scenario (right)Primary energy supply: Reference scenario(left) and LCS scenario (right)

Land area for biomass production: Reference scenario (left) and LCS scenario (right)S-6-1: Masui

Key MessagesAchieving 2oC target is feasibleAchieving 2 C target is feasible

If all the actions proposed here are applied appropriately, 69% of the emissions in the Reference scenario can be reduced in Asia in 2050. This is in line with a global pathway with the 2oC targetwith the 2oC target.

Early actions are  neededWhatever pathways are followed, GHG emissions should be reduced to zero in the long p y , grun to keep the climate at the corresponding level. More the actions are delayed, larger the reduction rates become and higher the stabilization level will be.GHG emissions need to be below zero to lower temperature. To realize negative emissions is very tough. There is a danger that socio-ecosystem will not be recovered even if GHG concentrations are returned

Leapfrogging development in Asia leads to a Low Carbon Society

to the lower level.

Transition to low carbon emissions and low‐resource consumption societies, while simultaneously improving h i d d f li i i i l f i bl

a Low Carbon Society

the economic standards of living is vital for sustainabledevelopment. Asia has many opportunities to realize an LCS by leapfrogging.

Opportunities for Asia:Freedom from past track of highly energy‐dependent technologies

Long‐term trends in energy intensity (energy/GDP)

P ibilit f A i

p g y gy p g

Possibility of Asian countries’ Leapfrogleveraged byleveraged by   Climate Change

China/ASEAN？＊India？

＊ Japan’s leap‐frog in Oil Crisis

＊＊India？

＊

– How can we facilitate technological leap‐frogging to promote low carbon development?– What kinds of mechanisms (international/national, market/non market) could facilitate leap‐frogging to low 

carbon technologies?

8

Examples of Brochures introducing Asian Low Carbon ScenariosCommunication and feedbacks of LCS study to real world

2009/11 2010/112009/11 2011/032007/05 2009/10 2009/112009/10 2010/11

ShigaJapan

ShigaJapan

KyotoJapan

JilinChina

India IskandarMalaysia

PutrajayaMalaysia

2011/102010/10 2011/09,2012/112009/10,2012/02 2010/02,2012/09 2010/10,2012/102013/10

y

AhmedabadIndia

BhopalIndia ThailandIndonesia Vietnam Bangladesh

PutrajayaMalaysia

2012/02 2013/052009/08,2012/11 2013/03 2013/07 2013/102013/05

IndiaIndia

GuangzhouIskandar MalaysiaCyberjayaKorea Khon KaenCambodia

9

ChinaMalaysia Malaysia KoreaThailandCambodia

http://2050.nies.go.jp/LCS/

Thank you very much!Thank you very much!

http://2050 nies go jp/COP/COP19http://2050.nies.go.jp/COP/COP19

The Low Carbon Asia Research project is supported by the Environment Research andThe Low-Carbon Asia Research project is supported by the Environment Research and Technology Development Fund (S-6) of the Ministry of Environment, Japan