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VT:GHFDBNTKMCNDTYYFZ UHEGGF "RCGTHNJD GJ �� BPVTYTYB? RKBVFNF�

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� Htp/vt lkz kbw> jghtltkz/ob[ gjkbnbre�

Htp/vt lkz kbw> jghtltkz/ob[ gjkbnbre

Gjcktlcndbz bpvtytybzrkbvfnf lkz htubjyjd%

jwtyrf ezpdbvjcnb

Gjl htlfrwbtq

Hj,thn N. Ejncjy Vfheae R. Pbybjdthf Hbxfhl U. VjccDctvbhysq ,fyr Vtntjhjkjubxtcrfz cke;,f Pbv,f,dt Yfwbjyfkmyfz kf,jhfnjhbz

ctdthj-pfgflyjq xfcnb Nb[juj jrtfyf — <fntkm

Lfdbl L;. LjrrtyHerjdjlbntkm ghjtrnf

Cgtwbfkmysq ljrkfl Hf,jxtq uheggs II

Yjz,hm> 1997

UNEP

ЮНЕП

WMO

ВМО

МЕЖПРАВИТЕЛЬСТВЕННАЯ ГРУППА ЭКСПЕРТОВПО ИЗМЕНЕНИЮ КЛИМАТА

© 1997, Vt;ghfdbntkmcndtyyfz uheggf 'rcgthnjd gj bpvtytyb/ rkbvfnf

ISBN: 92-9169-410-4

Cjlth;fybt

Ghtlbckjdbt . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . v

Ddtltybt . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . vii

1.Cathf j[dfnf jwtyrb . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1

2.Ceoyjcnm hfccvfnhbdftvjuj djghjcf . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1

3.Gjl[jl> bcgjkmpjdfyysq ghb jwtyrt . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2

4.J,pjh ezpdbvjcnb htubjyjd r djpltqcndbzv ukj,fkmyjuj bpvtytybz rkbvfnf . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24.1. "rjcbcntvs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34.2. Ublhjkjubz b djlyst htcehcs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 44.3. Ghjbpdjlcndj ghjljdjkmcndbz b djkjrybcns[ vfnthbfkjd . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 54.4. Ghb,ht;yst cbcntvs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 64.5. Pljhjdmt xtkjdtrf . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7

5.Pf,kfujdhtvtyyfz flfgnfwbz d rjyntrcnt ntreotq gjkbnbrb b eckjdbq . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7

6.Ezpdbvjcnm htubjyjd r djpltqcndbzv ukj,fkmyjuj bpvtytybz rkbvfnf . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 86.1. Fahbrf . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 86.2. Gjkzhyst htubjys% Fhrnbrf b Fynfhrnbrf . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 106.3. Pfceikbdfz pjyf Pfgflyjq Fpbb !Chtlybq Djcnjr b pfceikbdfz pjyf Fpbb@ . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 116.4. Fdcnhfkbqcrj-Fpbfncrbq htubjy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 126.5. Tdhjgf . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 136.6. Kfnbycrfz Fvthbrf . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 156.7. Ctdthyfz Fvthbrf . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 166.8. Vfkst jcnhjdyst ujcelfhcndf . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 176.9. Evthtyyfz pjyf Fpbb . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 196.10. Nhjgbxtcrfz pjyf Fpbb . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20

7.Gjnht,yjcnb d yfexys[ bccktljdfybz[ . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22

Fdnjhs#cgtwbfkbcns> ghtlcnfdbdibt vfnthbfks . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22

Vt;ghfdbntkmcndtyyfz uheggf 'rcgthnjd gj bpvtytyb/ rkbvfnf!VU"BR@ ,skf cjdvtcnyj exht;ltyf Dctvbhyjq Vtntjhjkjub-xtcrjq Jhufybpfwbtq b Ghjuhfvvjq Jhufybpfwbb J,(tlb-ytyys[ Yfwbq gj jrhe;f/otq chtlt d 1988 u. lkz ghjdtltybzjwtyjr yfexyj-nt[ybxtcrjq kbnthfnehs j, bpvtytybb rkbvfnf>gjntywbfkmys[ gjcktlcndbq bpvtytybq d rkbvfnt b dfhbfynjdflfgnfwbb r bpvtytyb/ rkbvfnf b evtymitybz tuj djpltqcndbq.Cj dhtvtyb cdjtuj jcyjdfybz VU"BR dsgecnbkf hzl ljrkfljdj, jwtyrf[> cgtwbfkmys[ ljrkfljd> nt[ybxtcrb[ ljrevtynjd>vtnjljkjubq b lheub[ vfnthbfkjd> rjnjhst cnfkb 'nfkjyysvbcghfdjxysvb ljrevtynfvb> ibhjrj bcgjkmpetvsvb kbwfvb>jghtltkz/obvb gjkbnbre> extysvb b lheubvb cgtwbfkbcnfvb.

Yfcnjzobq Cgtwbfkmysq ljrkfl> gjlujnjdktyysq Hf,jxtquheggjq II VU"BR> jcyjdfy yf vfnthbfkf[ 'njq hf,jxtq uheggslkz Dnjhjuj ljrkflf j, jwtyrf[ !DLJ@> f nfr;t yf ,jkttgjplytq byajhvfwbb> gjzdbditqcz c cthtlbys 1995 u. Jy gjl-ujnjdkty gj ghjcm,t Dcgjvjufntkmyjuj jhufyf gj yfexysv bnt[yjkjubxtcrbv rjycekmnfwbzv !C<CNF@ Hfvjxyjq rjydtywbbJJY j, bpvtytybb rkbvfnf !HRBR JJY@ b gjcdzoty df;yjvedjghjce> gjcnfdktyyjve Rjyathtywbtq Cnjhjy !RJC@ gthtlHRBR JJY> f bvtyyj% ≤Lj rfrjq cntgtyb eckjdbz ;bpybxtkjdtrf b ghbhjlyfz jrhe;f/ofz chtlf ezpdbvs rgjntywbfkmysv djpltqcndbzv bpvtytybz rkbvfnf≥. D yfcnjzotvljrkflt ghtlcnfdktyf j,ofz ,fpf byajhvfwbb jnyjcbntkmyjgjntywbfkmys[ pfnhfn b 'aatrnbdyjcnb vthjghbznbq> cdzpfyys[c bpvtytybtv rkbvfnf> drk/xfz jwtyre ytjghtltktyyjcntq> cntv xnj,s gjvjxm RJC d jghtltktybb njuj> rfrbt vthsflfgnfwbb b evtymitybz djpltqcndbq vjuen cxbnfnmczjghfdlfyysvb. D yfcnjzobq ljrkfl drk/xtys jwtyrbezpdbvjcnb lkz ltcznb htubjyjd> j[dfnsdf/ob[ dc/ gjdth[yjcnmceib ptvyjuj ifhf b ghbktuf/obt ghb,ht;yst vjhz> fbvtyyj% Fahbrf> pfceikbdfz pjyf Pfgflyjq Fpbb !drk/xfzChtlybq Djcnjr@> Fdcnhfkbqcrj-Fpbfncrbq htubjy> Tdhjgf>Kfnbycrfz Fvthbrf> Ctdthyfz Fvthbrf> gjkzhyst htubjys!Fhrnbrf b Fynfhrnbrf@> vfkst jcnhjdyst ujcelfhcndf>evthtyyfz pjyf Fpbb b nhjgbxtcrfz pjyf Fpbb. D ytuj nfr;tdrk/xtys ytcrjkmrj ghbkj;tybq> cjlth;fob[ byajhvfwb/ j

yf,k/ltybz[ pf rkbvfnjv> ghjuyjpf[ rkbvfnf> ghjuyjpf[ hfcg-htltktybz hfcnbntkmyjuj gjrhjdf b cjwbfkmyj-'rjyjvbxtcrb[ntyltywbz[.

Rfr j,sxyj> ecgt[ VU"BR ghb gjlujnjdrt yfcnjzotuj ljrkflfpfdbctk jn 'ynepbfpvf b cjnhelybxtcndf ,jkmijuj rjkbxtcndfextys[ b cgtwbfkbcnjd cj dctuj vbhf. Jyb pfnhfnbkb yf lfyye/hf,jne jxtym vyjuj dhtvtyb> xfcnj ds[jlz pf hfvrb nht,jdfybqr dsgjkytyb/ cke;t,ys[ j,zpfyyjcntq. Vs djc[boftvcz b[hf,jnjq> fgkjlbhetv bv b dshf;ftv ,kfujlfhyjcnm pf b[ drkfl dltzntkmyjcnm VU"BR. Yfv ghbznyj jnvtnbnm nt ecbkbz> rjnj-hst ,skb ghtlghbyzns VU"BR lkz j,tcgtxtybz exfcnbz extys[b lheub[ cgtwbfkbcnjd bp hfpdbdf/ob[cz cnhfy b cnhfy cgtht[jlyjq 'rjyjvbrjq. Exbnsdfz htubjyfkmye/ yfghfdktyyjcnmyfcnjzotuj ljrkflf> b[ exfcnbt ,skj jcj,tyyj df;ysv lkz tujecgtiyjuj pfdthitybz. Vs nfr;t dshf;ftv yfie ,kfujlfh-yjcnm vyjubv ghfdbntkmcndfv> drk/xfz ghfdbntkmcndf cnhfy bphfpdbdf/ob[cz htubjyjd b htubjyjd c gtht[jlyjq 'rjyjvbrjq>jrfpfdibv gjllth;re d hf,jnt 'nbv extysv b cgtwbfkbcnfv.

Vs gjkmpetvcz ghtlcnfdbditqcz djpvj;yjcnm/ lkz dshf;tybzyfitq ,kfujlfhyjcnb cktle/obv kbwfv pf exfcnbt d gjlujnjdrtdgkjnm lj ecgtiyjuj pfdthitybz tot jlyjuj ljrkflf VU"BR%

• Ghjatccjhe <. <jkbye> ghtlctlfntk/ VU"BR• Cjghtlctlfntkzv Hf,jxtq uheggs II> l-he H. N. Ejncjye !CIF@

b l-he V. R. Pbyjdtht !Pbv,f,dt@• Dbwt-ghtlctlfntkzv Hf,jxtq uheggs> l-he V. <tybcnjye !Idtq-

wfhbz@> l-he J. Rfypbfyb !Fhutynbyf@> l-he L;. Ahbff !Neybc@>by;. !u-;t@ V. Gthljvj !Dtytce'kf@> l-he C. R. Ifhvf !Bylbz@>u-ye {. Werfvjnj !Zgjybz@ b ghja. G. Dtkkbyut !Yblthkfyls@

• L-he H. U. Vjcce> herjdjlbntk/ uheggs nt[ybxtcrjqgjllth;rb !UNG@ Hf,jxtq uheggs II> u-ye L. L;. Ljrrtye>flvbybcnhfnjhe ghjtrnf> b lheubv xktyfv UNG> drk/xfz% u-;e C. VfrRhtrty> u-;e K. Dfy Dfq VfrUhjhb b u-;e A.Jhvjyl

• L-he Y. Cfylfhfhfvfye> ctrhtnfh/ VU"BR b tuj gthcjyfke>drk/xfz% u-;e H. <eh;ef> u-;e I. "nnjhb b u-;e C. Nfybrb.

Ghtlbckjdbt

U. J. G. J,fcb

Utythfkmysq ctrhtnfhmDctvbhyfz Vtntjhjkjubxtcrfz Jhufybpfwbz

U-;f B. Lfelcdtkk

Bcgjkybntkmysq lbhtrnjhGhjuhfvvf JJY gj jrhe;f/otq chtlt

Vt;ghfdbntkmcndtyyfz uheggf 'rcgthnjd gj bpvtytyb/rkbvfnf !VU"BR@ dsgecrftn cthb/ ljrkfljd j, jwtyrt>cgtwbfkmys[ ljrkfljd> nt[ybxtcrb[ ljrevtynjd b vtnjlj-kjubq. D rfxtcndt vt;ghfdbntkmcndtyyjuj jhufyf VU"BRjceotcndkztn cdjb cj,cndtyyst ghjwtlehs> htuekbhe/obtdsgecr rf;ljuj ljrevtynf 'njuj nbgf. Pfghjc j gjluj-njdrt yfcnjzotuj Cgtwbfkmyjuj ljrkflf j djpltqcndbz[bpvtytybz rkbvfnf yf htubjys d rfxtcndt nt[ybxtcrjujljrevtynf ,sk dgthdst ghtlcnfdkty Dcgjvjufntkmysv jhuf-yjv gj yfexysv b nt[yjkjubxtcrbv rjycekmnfwbzv !C<CNF@Rjyathtywbb Cnjhjy !RJC@ Hfvjxyjq rjydtywbbJhufybpfwbb J,(tlbytyys[ Yfwbq j, bpvtytybb rkbvfnf!HRBR JJY@& jlyfrj jujdjhrf j nt[ybxtcrjv ljrevtyntjuhfybxbdfkf fdnjhjd> gjcrjkmre jyb vjukb bcgjkmpjdfnmnjkmrj vfnthbfks> e;t bvt/obtcz d ljrkflf[ VU"BR j,jwtyrf[ b d cgtwbfkmys[ ljrkflf[. Ghb gjlujnjdrtghjtrnf yfcnjzotuj ljrevtynf fdnjhs htibkb> xnjdrk/xtybt cdtltybq bp yjdjq kbnthfnehs> rjnjhfzgjzdbkfcm gjckt pfdthitybz hf,jns yfl Dnjhsv ljrkfljvVU"BR j, jwtyrf[ !DLJ@> b extn htpekmnfnjd hf,jn>ghjdtltyys[ gjl 'ubljq ytcrjkmrb[ ≤ghjuhfvv bccktlj-dfybq gj cnhfyfv≥> gjpdjkbn cltkfnm yfcnjzobq ljrkfl,jktt gjkysv> cjdhtvtyysv b ibhjrj ghtlcnfdbnm d ytvntyltywbb b vfcinf,s ezpdbvjcnb> [fhfrnthyst lkz hfpys[htubjyjd. Jlyfrj drk/xtybt nfrb[ vfnthbfkjd d ljrkfl ytcjjndtncndjdfkj ,s ghjwtlehfv VU"BR lkz nt[ybxtcrb[ljrevtynjd& gj'njve VU"BR d [jlt cdjtq ldtyflwfnjqctccbb !Vt[brj> 11–13 ctynz,hz 1996 u.@ htibkfdsgecnbnm 'njn nt[ybxtcrbq ljrevtyn d dblt cgtwbfkmyjujljrkflf> cjjndtncndtyyj ghjbyajhvbhjdfd j, 'njv C<CNF.

D yfcnjzotv Cgtwbfkmyjv ljrkflt bccktle/ncz gjntywb-fkmyst gjcktlcndbz bpvtytybq d rkbvfnt lkz ltcznb htub-jyjd rjynbytynfkmyjuj bkb ce,rjynbytynfkmyjuj vfc-inf,jd. Dcktlcndbt jncencndbz jghtltktyyjcnb d cdzpb chtubjyfkmysvb ghjuyjpfvb bpvtytybz rkbvfnf> d yfcnjz-otv ljrkflt gj ytj,[jlbvjcnb ghbyzn gjl[jl r jwtyrtcntgtyb xedcndbntkmyjcnb b ezpdbvjcnb rf;ljuj htubjyfdvtcnj gjgsnrb rjkbxtcndtyyjuj ghtlcnfdktybz ghjuyjpjddjpltqcndbq bpvtytybz rkbvfnf. Rfr b d DLJ> ≤ezpdb-vjcnm≥ jpyfxftn cntgtym> d rjnjhjq bpvtytybt rkbvfnfvj;tn yfheibnm bkb gjdhtlbnm ne bkb bye/ cbcntve&jyf zdkztncz aeyrwbtq rfr xedcndbntkmyjcnb r rkbvfne>nfr b cgjcj,yjcnb flfgnbhjdfnmcz r yjdsv eckjdbzv.

Ghtlcnfdktyyst d yfcnjzotv ljrkflt jwtyrb gjlndth;lf-/n dsdjls DLJ b gjlxthrbdf/n njn afrn> xnj bpvtytybtrkbvfnf d gjntywbfkt vj;tn bpvtybnm cgjcj,yjcnm abpb-xtcrb[ b ,bjkjubxtcrb[ cbcntv ptvyjuj ifhf !ceib> fn-vjcaths b jrtfyjd@ j,tcgtxbdfnm njdfhs b eckeub> ;bp-ytyyj ytj,[jlbvst lkz ecnjqxbdjuj 'rjyjvbxtcrjujhfpdbnbz.

Yfcnjzobq ljrkfl ghtlcnfdkztn cj,jq df;ye/ cnegtymyf genb hfpdbnbz ghjwtccf jwtyrb djpltqcndbq lkzVU"BR. Ghtlsleobt jwtyrb djpltqcndbq j[dfnsdfkbgjntywbfkmyst gjcktlcndbz bpvtytybz rkbvfnf> ukfdysvj,hfpjv d ukj,fkmyjv vfcinf,t. D yfcnjzotv ljrkfltfyfkbpbhe/ncz djpltqcndbz d vfcinf,t rjynbytynjd bkbce,rjynbytynjd> xnj ghtlcnfdkztn ,jkmibq ghfrnbxtcrbqbynthtc lkz jhufyjd b kbw> ghbybvf/ob[ htitybz.Nfrjq htubjyfkmysq gjl[jl gjpdjkztn edbltnm yfkbxbt,jkmib[ hfc[j;ltybq d cntgtyb ezpdbvjcnb hfpkbxys[uhegg yfctktybz b 'rjkjubxtcrb[ cbcntv. "nj hfpyj-j,hfpbt ghjbcntrftn> chtlb ghjxb[ afrnjhjd> bp hfpkbxbqd vtcnys[ 'rjkjubxtcrb[ eckjdbz[> 'rjyjvbxtcrb[> cjwb-fkmys[ b gjkbnbxtcrb[ eckjdbz[ b cntgtyb pfdbcbvjcnbjn xedcndbntkmys[ r rkbvfne htcehcjd. <kfujlfhz ,jkttvtkrjve vfcinf,e fyfkbpf d yfcnjzotv ljrkflt cjlth-;bncz ,jktt gjlhj,yfz> xtv d DLJ> byajhvfwbz j gjnty-wbfkmys[ djpvj;yjcnz[ lkz flfgnfwbb cbcntv> dbljdltzntkmyjcnb b byahfcnherneh r bpvtytyb/ rkbvfnf. Ntvyt vtytt d ukfdf[ ljrkflf erfpsdftncz> xnj tckb xfcnysqctrnjh b ghfdbntkmcndtyyst jhufys cnhtvzncz r njve>xnj,s xedcndbntkmyst r rkbvfne ctrnjhf ghbj,htkb ,jkm-ie/ cgjcj,yjcnm r cfvjdjccnfyjdktyb/ ghb djpltqcndbz[ctujlyziytq bpvtyxbdjcnb rkbvfnf> f nfr;t r njve>xnj,s juhfybxbnm eoth, bkb gjkexbnm dsujls d ckexftgjntywbfkmys[ ljkujchjxys[ bpvtytybq d rkbvfnt> njytj,[jlbvj ghjdtltybt ujhfplj ,jkmituj rjkbxtcndfbccktljdfybq b fyfkbpjd dfhbfynjd flfgnfwbb b ghj-wtccjd htuekbhjdfybz.

Yfcnjzobq ljrkfl zdkztncz nfr;t gthdjyfxfkmysv ifujvd ltkt bpextybz djpvj;yjcntq dpfbvjltqcndbz ghjuyjpbhet-vs[ bpvtytybq d rkbvfnt c lheubvb bpvtytybzvb djrhe;f/otq chtlt !yfghbvth% gjnthzvb d ,bjhfpyjj,hf-pbb> ltuhflfwbtq ptvtkm> bcnjotybtv cnhfnjcathyjuj jpjyfb ltuhflfwbtq djlys[ htcehcjd@ b c cjwbfkysvb ntylty-wbzvb !yfghbvth% c hjcnjv yfctktybz> 'rjyjvbxtcrbv hfp-dbnbtv b nt[ybxtcrbv ghjuhtccjv@. Htpekmnfns jwtyrberfpsdf/n yf ytj,[jlbvjcnm ghjdtltybz ljgjkybntkmys[bccktljdfybq dpfbvjcdzptq vt;le ghj,ktvfvb d j,kfcnbjrhe;f/otq chtls.

Yfcnjzobq ljrkfl j,tcgtxbn jcyjde lkz jwtyrb djpltq-cndbq> rjnjhfz ,eltn ghtlcnfdktyf d Nhtnmtv ljrkflt j,jwtyrt !NLJ@> pfdthibnm rjnjhsq ghtlgjkfuftncz d rjywt2000 u. Jlby bp df;ys[ gthdjyfxfkmys[ ifujd d ghjwtc-ct gjlujnjdrb NLJ VU"BR ,eltn pfrk/xfnmcz d gthtc-vjnht b cjdthitycndjdfybb gjl[jlf b htubjyfkmys[ uheg-gbhjdjr> bcgjkmpetvs[ ghb jwtyrt. Jlyj bp yfb,jktt df;-ys[ cjj,hf;tybq ghb nfrjq hf,jnt ,eltn rfcfnmcz dsbu-hsiyjq djpvj;yjcnb gjkextybz ghjuyjpjd rkbvfnbxtcrb[b 'rjkjubxtcrb[ bpvtytybq d ,jktt vtkrb[ vfcinf,f[.

Ddtltybt

Yfcnjzobq ljrkfl j,tcgtxbdftn jcyjde lkz NLJ b tot djlyjv df;yjv jnyjitybb — jy ghtlcnfdkztn pyfxbntkmysqlfkmytqibq ifu d yfghfdktybb gjdsitybz ehjdyz exfcnbzextys[ b nt[ybxtcrb[ 'rcgthnjd bp hfpdbdf/ob[cz cnhfy bcnhfy c gtht[jlyjq 'rjyjvbrjq. Pf VU"BR gj-ght;ytvecj[hfyztncz j,zpfyyjcnm dsgjkyznm 'ne pflfxe b ytjcnfdkznm cdjb[ ecbkbq gj ghbdktxtyb/ 'rcgthnjd bp 'nb[htubjyjd b j,tcgtxtyb/ b[ exfcnbz d ghjdtltybb jwtyjr d,eleotv.

Dshf;tybt ghbpyfntkmyjcnb

Vs [jntkb ,s dshfpbnm ghbpyfntkmyjcnm vyjubv kbwfv bjhufybpfwbzv pf b[ drkfl> gjpdjkbdibq ecgtiyj pfdthibnmhf,jne yfl yfcnjzobv ljrkfljv. Ght;lt dctuj> vs ,kfuj-lfhys pf lj,hjdjkmyst ecbkbz dct[ xktyjd yfexyj-nt[ybxtcrb[ rjvbntnjd> rjnjhst gjlujnjdbkb b cjdvtcnyjjnhtlfrnbhjdfkb ukfds b ghbkj;tybz yfcnjzotuj ljrkflf."nb kbwf ltqcndjdfkb d ytcrjkmrb[ rfxtcndf[> drk/xfzjndtncndtyys[ dtleob[ fdnjhjd> dtleob[ fdnjhjd>cgtwbfkbcnjd> ghtlcnfdbdib[ vfnthbfks#htlfrnjhjd>htubjyfkmys[ rjjhlbyfnjhjd b cgtwbfkbcnjd> ghtlcnfdbdib[vfnthbfks gj ctrnjhfv !fdnjhs DLJ> rjnjhst ds,hfkbbyajhvfwb/ j htubjyf[ bp cdjb[ jhbtynbhjdfyys[ gjctrnjhfv ukfd d rfxtcndt jnghfdys[ njxtr lkz htubjyfkmys[jwtyjr@. Vs nfr;t c ,kfujlfhyjcnm/ dshf;ftv ghbpyf-ntkmyjcnm pf gjvjom> ghtljcnfdktyye/ ghfdbntkmcndfvb hzle'nb[ dtleob[ fdnjhjd.Dct 'nb drkfls yt ghbytckb ,s gjkmpe> tckb ,s yt ytecnfy-yst b cjpblfntkmyst ecbkbz L'dblf L;jyf Ljrrtyf>

flvbybcnhfnjhf ghjtrnf> hjkm b j,zpfyyjcnb rjnjhjuj d lt-kt gjlujnjdrb yfcnjzotuj ljrkflf nhelyj gthtxbckbnm b,tp rjnjhjuj lfyysq ljrkfl yt cvju ,s ,snm cjcnfdktycnjkm 'aatrnbdyj b ,scnhj. Pyfxbntkmye/ gjvjom d gjluj-njdrt yfcnjzotuj ljrkflf jrfpfkb nfr;t b lheubt xktysnt[ybxtcrjq dcgjvjufntkmyjq uheggs Hf,jxtq uheggs II>drk/xfz C'ylb VfrRhtrty> Kfehe Dfy Dfq VfrUhjhb bAkj Jhvjyl. Ceotcndtyye/ gjllth;re b lj,hj;t-kfntkmyst htrjvtylfwbb ghtljcnfdbkb xktys gthcjyfkfCtrhtnfhbfnf VU"BR> drk/xfz Helb <eh;ef> Ifynfkm"nnjhb b Ctcbkb/ Nfybrb.

Vs [jntkb ,s dshfpbnm yfie ,kfujlfhyjcnm nfr;t lheubvkbwfv> rjnjhst dytckb drkfl d gjlujnjdre yfcnjzotujljrkflf> dsgjkyzz hfpkbxyst fyfkbnbxtcrbt b jhufyb-pfwbjyyst aeyrwbb. D b[ xbckj d[jlzn% Nththtq F,tn>Bpf,tkm Fktuht> Hjy <tybja> Rfhjkm R=hnbc> GjkmLtpfyrth> Hj,thn Lbrcjy b tuj rjkktub gj Ghjuhfvvtbccktljdfybq CIF gj cnhfyfv> Hjkfyl Aerc> RhbcnbUeltqkm> L'dbl Uhtq> Vfqr {fkv> L;tybath L;tyrbyc>Hbxfhl Rktqy> C. R. Vf;evlfh> Crjnn Jkkbyuth> "hbrHjlty,thu> Hj,thn Ijekc> L;j'km Cvbn> Htubyf N'yyjy>L'dbl Ntj,fkl b {fccfy Dbh;b.

<thn <jkbyHj,thn EjncjyVfheae PbybjdthfYfhfcbv[fy CeylfhfhfvfyHbxfhl Vjcc

Gjcktlcndbz bpvtytybz rkbvfnf lkz htubjyjd% jwtrrf ezpdbvjcnbviii

1. Cathf j[dfnf jwtyrb

Yfcnjzobq ljrkfl gjlujnjdkty gj ghjcm,t RjyathtywbbCnjhjy Hfvjxyjq rjydtywbb j, bpvtytybb rkbvfnf Jhuf-ybpfwbb J,(tlbytyys[ Yfwbq !HRBR JJY@ b tt dcgjvj-ufntkmys[ jhufyjd !rjyrhtnyj> Dcgjvjufntkmyjuj jhufyfgj yfexysv b nt[yjkjubxtcrbv rjycekmnfwbzv C<CNF@. Dyfcnjzotv cgtwbfkmyjv ljrkflt ghtlcnfdkty gjlujnjdkty-ysq yf htubjyfkmyjq jcyjdt j,pjh bvt/otqcz yf ctujl-yziybq ltym byajhvfwbb j, ezpdbvjcnb r djpltqcndb/.gjntywbfkmyjuj bpvtytybz rkbvfnf 'rjkjubxtcrb[ cbcntv>cjwbfkmyj-'rjyjvbxtcrb[ ctrnjhjd !drk/xfz% ctkmcrjt[jpzqcndj> hs,yjt [jpzqcndj> djlyst htcehcs b gjctktybzxtkjdtrf@> f nfr;t pljhjdmz xtkjdtrf. D ljrkflt hfccvfn-hbdftncz djghjc j xedcndbntkmyjcnb 'nb[ cbcntv> f nfr;tj hfpkbxys[ dfhbfynf[ flfgnfwbb. {jnz yfcnjzobq ljr-kfl gjlujnjdkty> ukfdysv j,hfpjv> yf jcyjdt jwtyjrdjpltqcndbq yf ctrnjhf> cjlth;fob[cz dj Dnjhjv ljrkfltj, jwtyrf[ !DLJ@> d ytv nfr;t jnhf;tyf byajhvfwbz bp,jktt gjplytq kbnthfnehs !chtlb ghjxtuj> bp ghjuhfvvbccktljdfybq gj cnhfyfv@.

2. Ceoyjcnm hfccvfnhbdftvjuj djghjcf

Ltzntkmyjcnm xtkjdtrf !d jcyjdyjv c;bufybt bcrjgftvs[dbljd njgkbdf b bpvtytybt ptvktgjkmpjdfybz b gjrhjdfceib@ ghbdjlbn r edtkbxtyb/ cjlth;fybz d fnvjcathtgfhybrjds[ ufpjd> xnj bpvtyztn hflbfwbjyyst ,fkfycs bdtltn r gjntgktyb/ fnvjcaths> f d ytrjnjhs[ htubjyf[f'hjpjkb jrfpsdf/n j,hfnysq 'aatrn yf hflbfwbjyyst,fkfycs b dspsdf/n j[kf;ltybt fnvjcaths. Yf ctujlyzi-ybq ltym d ytrjnjhs[ vtcnf[> d jcyjdyjv d ctdthyjvgjkeifhbb> j[kf;lf/ott djpltqcndbt f'hjpjktq zdkz-tncz> dthjznyj> yfcnjkmrj ,jkmibv> xnj vj;tn ,jktt xtvrjvgtycbhjdfnm gjntgktybt> dspsdftvjt gfhybrjdsvbufpfvb. Jlyfrj d cdzpb c ntv> xnj f'hjpjkb yt jcnf/ncz dfnvjcatht d ntxtybt ljkub[ gthbjljd dhtvtyb> f ukj,fkm-yst ds,hjcs b[ ghtrehcjhjd> cjukfcyj ghjuyjpfv> pyfxb-ntkmyj yt djphfcnen> f'hjpjkb yt cvjuen rjvgtycbhjdfnmukj,fkmyjt ljkujchjxyjt djpltqcndbt gfhybrjds[ ufpjd>cj[hfyz/ob[cz d fnvjcatht d ntxtybt ghjljk;bntkmys[gthbjljd. Yfkbxbt f'hjpjktq vj;tn bvtnm df;yst gjcktl-cndbz lkz cnherneh bpvtytybz rkbvfnf rjynbytynfkmyjujvfcinf,f.

D cjdjregyjcnb 'nb bpvtytybz d cjlth;fybb gfhybrjds[ufpjd b f'hjpjktq ghbdtlen> cjukfcyj ghjuyjpfv> rhtubjyfkmysv b ukj,fkmysv bpvtytybzv d pyfxtybz[ ntvgt-hfnehs> fnvjcathys[ jcflrjd b lheub[ rkbvfnbxtcrb[gfhfvtnhjd> f 'nj> d cdj/ jxthtlm> ghbdtltn r ukj,fkmysvbpvtytybzv dj dkf;yjcnb gjxds> gjdsityb/ ukj,fkmyjujchtlytuj ehjdyz vjhz b> d gthcgtrnbdt> r ,jktt cthmtpysvzdktybzv 'rcnhtvfkmyj dscjrb[ ntvgthfneh> hzlt vtcn ryfdjlytybzv b pfce[fv. Ghb hf,jnt c vjltkzvb rkbvfnf yf

jcyjdt lbfgfpjyf gjrfpfntktq xedcndbntkmyjcnb rkbvfnf rbpvtytybzv d cjlth;fybb gfhybrjds[ ufpjd d fnvjcatht!VU"BR 1996 u. HUI@ b ghtlgjkfuftvs[ bpvtytybq dds,hjcf[ gfhybrjds[ ufpjd b f'hjpjktq !IS92a-f& cwt-yfhbb> d rjnjhs[ ghtlgjkfuftncz> xnj yt ,eltn ghjdjlbnmczybrfrjq gjkbnbrb d jnyjitybb rkbvfnf@ gjkextysghjuyjps j njv> xnj r 2100 u. chtlytujljdfz ukj,fkmyfzghbptvyfz ntvgthfnehf gjdscbncz yf 1-3,5° C, ukj,fkmysqchtlybq ehjdtym vjhz gjdscbncz yf 15–95 cv bghjbpjqlen bpvtytybz d ghjcnhfycndtyys[ b dhtvtyyß[cnhernehf[ fnvjcathys[ jcflrjd. Chtlybt ntvgs gjntg-ktybz ,elen> dthjznyj> dsit xtv k/,st bp yf,k/-lfdib[cz pf gjcktlybt 10 000 ktn> [jnz lkz htfkmys[ujljds[ ltcznbktnyb[ ntvgjd ,eltn [fhfrnthyf pyfxb-ntkmyfz tcntcndtyyfz bpvtyxbdjcnm> f bpvtytybz dhtubjyf[ vjuen cbkmyj jnkbxfnmcz jn ukj,fkmyjuj chtl-ytuj pyfxtybz. "nb ljkujchjxyst> rhegyjvfcinf,yst>dspdfyyst ltzntkmyjcnm/ xtkjdtrf bpvtytybz> ,elendpfbvjltqcndjdfnm c tcntcndtyyjq bpvtyxbdjcnm/ djdhtvtyyß[ vfcinf,f[ jn cenjr lj ltcznbktnbq (yfghbvthzdktybt "km-Ybymj#/;yjt rjkt,fybt !"YCJ@) bcjjndtncndtyyj dkbznm yf cjwbfkmyj-'rjyjvbxtcrjt ,kfuj-cjcnjzybt xtkjdtxtcndf. Djpvj;yst vtcnyst djpltqcndbzrkbvfnf> rjnjhst vjuen zdbnmcz htpekmnfnjv ytj;blfyys[zdktybq> yfghbvth dspdfyyjuj bpvtytybtv rkbvfnfbpvtytybz cnhernehs gjnjrjd vjhcrb[ ntxtybq> nfrb[> rfrUjkmacnhbv> dj dybvfybt yt ghbybvf/ncz> gjcrjkmre dyfcnjzott dhtvz ytdjpvj;yj ghtlcrfpfnm nfrbt bpvtytybzc ljcnfnjxyjq cntgtym/ ljcnjdthyjcnb.

Yfexyst bccktljdfybz cdbltntkmcnde/n j njv> xnj pljhj-dmt xtkjdtrf> 'rjkjubxtcrbt cbcntvs b cjwbfkmyj-'rjyjvb-xtcrbt ctrnjhf !yfghbvth% ublhjkjubz b djlyst htcehcs>ghjbpdjlcndj ghjljdjkmcndbz b djkjrybcns[ vfnthbfkjd>ghb,ht;yst cbcntvs b gjctktybz xtkjdtrf@ — rf;lsq bprjnjhs[ xhtpdsxfqyj df;ty lkz ecnjqxbdjuj hfpdbnbz —xedcndbntkmys r bpvtytybzv rkbvfnf> drk/xfz rfr tujdtkbxbye> nfr b ntvgs> f nfr;t r bpvtytybzv d bpvtyxb-djcnb rkbvfnf. D nj dhtvz> rfr dj vyjub[ htubjyf[ bpvt-ytybt rkbvfnf ghbdtltn> gj dctq dthjznyjcnb> r ytufnbd-ysv gjcktlcndbzv> xfcnm bp rjnjhs[ ,eltn yjcbnm gjnty-wbfkmyj ytj,hfnbvsq [fhfrnth> ytrjnjhst djpltqcndbz bpvt-ytybz rkbvfnf vjuen jrfpfnmcz b ,kfujghbznysvb. Bpvtyt-ybt rkbvfnf zdkztncz pyfxbntkmyjq ljgjkybntkmyjq yfu-heprjq yf nt cbcntvs> rjnjhst e;t bcgsnsdf/n yf ct,tytufnbdyst gjcktlcndbz edtkbxtybz cghjcf yf htcehcs>ythfwbjyfkmyjq ghfrnbrb eghfdktybz b pfuhzpytybz> b 'nbgjcktlcndbz dj vyjub[ ckexfz[ vjuen ,snm hfdys bkb lf;tghtdsifnm gjcktlcndbz bpvtytybz rkbvfnf. "nb yfuheprb,elen dpfbvjltqcndjdfnm d hfpys[ htubjyf[ hfpkbxysvbgenzvb> jlyfrj vj;yj ghtlgjkfufnm> xnj jyb evtymifncgjcj,yjcnm ytrjnjhs[ cbcntv jrhe;f/otq chtls j,tcgt-xbdfnm yf ecnjqxbdjq jcyjdt rk/xtdst njdfhs b eckeub>ytj,[jlbvst lkz ecgtiyjuj cjwbfkmyj-'rjyjvbxtcrjujhfpdbnbz> drk/xfz% yflkt;fott ghjljdjkmcndbt> xbcnst

GJCKTLCNDBZ BPVTYTYBZ RKBVFNF LKZ HTUBJYJD% JWTYRF EZPDBVJCNB

djple[ b djle> 'ythub/> ,tpjgfcyst ;bkbof> ybprbt ehjdybpf,jktdftvjcnb b djpvj;yjcnb lkz pfyznjcnb yfctktybz.Bpvtytybt rkbvfnf ,eltn buhfnm jghtltktyye/ hjkm b d rjy-ntrcnt 'rjyjvbxtcrjuj hfpdbnbz& yfghbvth> ytrjnjhst uheggsbkb cnhfys vjuen jrfpfnmcz vtytt ezpdbvsvb r djpltqcndb/bpvtytybz rkbvfnf> ,kfujlfhz edtkbxtyb/ htcehcjd> bvt/-ob[cz lkz flfgnfwbb& nt ;t cnhfys> d rjnjhs[ yf,k/lf/nczybprbt ehjdyb 'rjyjvbxtcrjuj hjcnf> ,scnhsq hjcn yfctktybzb e[elitybt 'rjkjubb vjuen jrfpfnmcz ,jktt ezpdbvsvb rdjpltqcndb/ gjntywbfkmys[ bpvtytybq.

3. Gjl[jl> bcgjkmpjdfyysq ghb jwtyrt

D yfcnjzotv ljrkflt ghbdtltyf jwtyrf ezpdbvjcnbghbhjlys[ b cjwbfkmys[ cbcntv jcyjdys[ htubjyjd vbhfr djpltqcndb/ bpvtytybz rkbvfnf. Ezpdbvjcnm jght-ltkztncz rfr cntgtym> lj rjnjhjq nf bkb byfz ghbhjlyfzbkb cjwbfkmyfz cbcntvf cgjcj,yf ghjnbdjcnjznmhfpheibntkmyjve djpltqcndb/ bpvtytybz rkbvfnf. Ezpdb-vjcnm zdkztncz aeyrwbtq xedcndbntkmyjcnb cbcntvs rbpvtytybzv d rkbvfnt !cntgtym> d rjnjhjq nf bkb byfzcbcntvf htfubhetn yf jghtltktyyjt bpvtytybt d rkbvfnt>drk/xfz rfr ,kfujghbznyst> nfr b yt,kfujghbznyst djp-ltqcndbz@> b cgjcj,yjcnb cbcntvs flfgnbhjdfnmcz rbpvtytybzv d rkbvfnt !cntgtym> d rjnjhjq vths htuekb-hjdfybz d ghfrnbrt> ghjwtccf[ bkb cnhernehf[ vjuenbpvtybnm bkb rjvgtycbhjdfnm gjntywbfkmye/ djpvj;-yjcnm eoth,f bkb bcgjkmpjdfnm ghtbveotcndf djpvj;-yjcntq> djpybrf/ob[ dcktlcndbt jghtltktyyjuj bpvt-ytybz d rkbvfnt@. D hfvrf[ 'njq j,otq c[tvs cbkmyjezpdbvjq cbcntvjq ,eltn cbcntvf> rjnjhfz dscjrjxedcndbntkmyf r yt,jkmibv bpvtytybzv d rkbvfnt bxedcndbntkmyjcnm rjnjhjq jpyfxftn djpvj;yjcnmpyfxbntkmys[ yt,kfujghbznys[ gjcktlcndbq> b ghb 'njvtt cgjcj,yjcnm r flfgnfwbb cbkmyj juhfybxtyf.

D cdzpb c ntv> xnj d e;t ghjdtltyys[ bccktljdfybz[ ytbcgjkmpjdfkfcm rfrfz-nj j,ofz cjdjregyjcnm cwtyfhbtdrkbvfnf b vtnjljd jwtyrb> f nfr;t ddble yfkbxbzytjghtltktyyjcntq d jnyjitybb xedcndbntkmyjcnb bghbcgjcj,kztvjcnb ghbhjlys[ b cjwbfkmys[ cbcntv>jwtyrf ezpdbvjcnb gj htubjyfv ytbp,t;yj yjcbn rfxtcn-dtyysq [fhfrnth. Ntv yt vtytt d yfcnjzotv ljrkfltghtlcnfdktyf pyfxbntkmyfz b ytj,[jlbvfz byajhvfwbz jnjv> xnj d yfcnjzott dhtvz bpdtcnyj j, ezpdbvjcnb rdjpltqcndb/ bpvtytybz rkbvfnf.

D hzlt ckexftd d yfcnjzotv ljrkflt ghbdjlzncz b rjkb-xtcndtyyst jwtyrb djpltqcndbq bpvtytybz rkbvfnf.Nfrbt jwtyrb yf[jlzncz d pfdbcbvjcnb jn rjyrhtnys[ghtlgjkj;tybq j ,eleob[ bpvtytybz[ rkbvfnf b jnrjyrhtnys[ vtnjljd b vjltktq> bcgjkmpjdfdib[cz ghbfyfkbpf[. Ghb njkrjdfybb 'nb[ jwtyjr df;yj bvtnmddble> xnj gjght;ytve cj[hfyz/ncz ytjghtltktyyjcnb dnjv> xnj rfcftncz [fhfrnthf> dtkbxbys b ntvgjd ,eleotujbpvtytybz rkbvfnf. "nb ytjghtltktyyjcnb juhfybxbdf/n

cgjcj,yjcnm extys[ cghjuyjpbhjdfnm gjcktlcndbzbpvtytybz rkbvfnf> jcj,tyyj d htubjyfkmyjv b ,jkttvtkrb[ vfcinf,f[.Xfcnbxyj dcktlcndbt ytjghtltktyyjcnb jndtnf yf djghjc jnjv> rfr ;t bpvtybncz rkbvfn> d yfcnjzotv ljrkfltghbyzn gjl[jl jwtyrb ezpdbvjcnb> f yt rjkbxtcndtyyjqjwtyrb ghtlgjkfuftvs[ gjcktlcndbq bpvtytybz rkbvfnf.Ghbdtltyyst pltcm jwtyrb kexit dctuj njkrjdfnm rfrbkk/cnhfwb/ gjntywbfkmyjuj [fhfrnthf b ghb,kbpbntkm-ys[ dtkbxby gjcktlcndbq> rjnjhst vjuen ,snm htpekmnf-njv rjyrhtnys[ cwtyfhbtd bpvtytybz rkbvfnf. Jybcke;fn gjrfpfntkzvb xedcndbntkmyjcnb b djpvj;yjqezpdbvjcnb. Xfot dctuj 'nb jwtyrb jcyjdfys yf nt[ bpvt-ytybz[ rkbvfnf d eckjdbz[ hfdyjdtcbz> rjnjhst ,skbgjkextys d htpekmnfnt vjltkbhjdfybz ghb 'rdbdfktynteldjtyyjuj cjlth;fybz ldejrbcb eukthjlf CO2 d fnvjc-atht. Rfr ghfdbkj> ghb 'njv vjltkbhjdfybb yt exbns-dfkbcm djpltqcndbz f'hjpjktq. Gjdsitybt ukj,fkmyjqchtlytq ntvgthfnehs> cjjndtncnde/ott 'nbv cwtyfhbzv> djcyjdyjv cjcnfdkztn 2-5 °C. Lkz j,tcgtxtybz dhtvtyyjujrjyntrcnf lkz 'nb[ cwtyfhbtd dpzn gthbjl lj 2100 u.> dntxtybt rjnjhjuj> cjukfcyj Dnjhjve ljrkfle VU"BR j,jwtyrf[> lbfgfpjy pfghjuyjpbhjdfyyjuj ukj,fkmyjujchtlytuj gjntgktybz cjcnfdbn 1-3,5 °C> f chtlybq ehjdtymvjhz gjlybvtncz yf 15–95 cv. D yfcnjzotv fyfkbpt lkzj,jcyjdfybz gjhzlrf dtkbxbys bpvtytybq> ghbvtyztvjqghb fyfkbpf[ xedcndbntkmyjcnb> bcgjkmpe/ncz htpekmnfnsvjltktq j,otq wbhrekzwbb !VJW@. B[ yt cktletnhfccvfnhbdfnm rfr ghtlcrfpfybt njuj> xnj rkbvfn bpvt-ybncz yf rjyrhtnyst dtkbxbys d rjyrhtnys[ cnhfyf[ bhtubjyf[. Kbnthfnehf> bcgjkmpjdfdifzcz lkz jwtyrb>hfpkbxyf gj rjkbxtcnde b rfxtcnde lkz hfpys[ htubjyjd.

4. J,pjh ezpdbvjcnb htubjyjd r djpltqcnd/ukj,fkmyjuj bpvtytybz rkbvfnf

D cnfnmt 2 HRBR JJY zcyj ghbpyftncz df;yjt pyfxtybtghbhjlys[ 'rjcbcntv> ghjbpdjlcndf ghjljdjkmcndbz becnjqxbdjuj 'rjyjvbxtcrjuj hfpdbnbz. Ghbdtltyyst dyfcnjzotv ljrkflt jwtyrb ezpdbvjcnb htubjyjd r djpltq-cndb/ bpvtytybz rkbvfnf j[dfnsdf/n 'rjcbcntvs>ublhjkjub/ b djlyst htcehcs> ghjbpdjlcndj ghjljdjkm-cndbz b djkjrybcns[ vfnthbfkjd> ghb,ht;yst cbcntvs>gjctktybz xtkjdtrf> pljhjdmt xtkjdtrf b lheubt ctrnjhfbkb cbcntvs !drk/xfz cbcntve rkbvfnf@> bvt/obt df;-yjt pyfxtybt lkz ltcznb htubjyjd yf gjdth[yjcnb ceibptvyjuj ifhf. Ghb 'njv cktletn gjybvfnm> xnj ezpdb-vjcnm fyfkjubxys[ ctrnjhjd bkb cbcntv d hfpys[ htubj-yf[ vj;tn ,snm ljdjkmyj hfpkbxyjq dcktlcndbt htubj-yfkmys[ hfpkbxbq d vtcnys[ 'rjkjubxtcrb[ eckjdbz[> dceotcndjdfdib[ hfytt yfuheprf[ yf 'rjcbcntvs> dcjdhtvtyys[ c[tvf[ bcgjkmpjdfybz htcehcjd b d cbcntvf[afrnjhjd> dkbz/ob[ yf ghbyznbt htitybq> drk/xfzghfdbntkmcndtyye/ gjkbnbre> wtys> ghtathtywbb bwtyyjcnb. Ntv yt vtytt> ytrjnjhst j,obt yf,k/ltybz>jcyjdfyyst yf byajhvfwbb> cjlth;fotqcz d DLJ b

Gjcktlcndbz bpvtytybz rkbvfnf lkz htubjyjd% jwtyrf ezpdbvjcnb2

cbyntpbhjdfyyjq bp htubjyfkmys[ fyfkbpjd d hfvrf[lfyyjq jwtyrb> j,tcgtxbdf/n ukj,fkmysq rjyntrcn lkzjwtyrb ezpdbvjcnb rf;ljuj htubjyf.

4.1 "rjcbcntvs

"rjcbcntvs bvt/n aeylfvtynfkmyjt pyfxtybt lkz ;bpyt-ltzntkmyjcnb jrhe;f/otq chtls b tt ecnjqxbdjcnb& rhjvtnjuj> jyb j,tcgtxbdf/n vyjubt njdfhs b eckeub> xhtpdsxfqyjdf;yst rfr lkz jnltkmys[ kbw> nfr b lkz cjj,otcnd. Dxbckj 'nb[ njdfhjd b eckeu d[jlzn !i@ j,tcgtxtybtghjljdjkmcndbz> djkjrybcns[ vfnthbfkjd> rjhvjd>;bkbo> vtlbwbycrb[ eckeu b 'ythubb& (ii) gththf,jnrfb [hfytybt eukthjlf b gbnfntkmys[ dtotcnd& (iii) fccb-vbkzwbz jn[jljd& (iv) jxbcnrf djls> htuekbhjdfybtdjlys[ cnjrjd b clth;bdfybt yfdjlytybq& (v) cjplfybtgjxd b evtymitybt ltuhflfwbb gjxd& (vi) j,tcgtxtybtdjpvj;yjcntq lkz jnls[f b nehbpvf& b (vii) cj[hfytybtdctuj utytnbxtcrjuj vfnthbfkf b hfpyjj,hfpbz dbljdptvyjuj ifhf. Rhjvt njuj> ghbhjlyst 'rjcbcntvsj,kflf/n rekmnehyjq> htkbubjpyjq b 'cntnbxtcrjqwtyyjcnzvb> f nfr;t wtyys e;t afrnjv cdjtuj ceotcn-djdfybz. Bpvtytybz d rkbvfnt vjuen d gjntywbfktgjdkbznm yf utjuhfabxtcrjt hfpvtotybt 'rjkjubxtcrb[cbcntv> cjcnfd d[jlzob[ d yb[ dbljd b b[ cgjcj,yjcnmj,tcgtxbdfnm ibhjrbq lbfgfpjy ,kfu> yf rjnjhs[jcyjdfyj ceotcndjdfybt k/lcrb[ cjj,otcnd. "rjkjub-xtcrbt cbcntvs zdkz/ncz gj cfvjq cdjtq ghbhjlt lbyf-vbxysvb> b gjcnjzyyj bcgsnsdf/n yf ct,t dkbzybtbpvtyxbdjcnb rkbvfnf. Jcyjdyjt dkbzybt bpvtytybz rkb-vfnf yf 'rjcbcntvs> dspdfyyjuj ltzntkmyjcnm/ xtkjdtrf>,eltn cdzpfyj> rfr ghtlgjkfuftncz> c ntvgfvb b dtkbxbyjqbpvtytybq d chtlyb[ b 'rcnhtvfkmys[ pyfxtybz[ rkbvf-nbxtcrb[ gfhfvtnhjd& ghb 'njv j;blftncz> xnj bpvtytybtrkbvfnf ,eltn ghjbc[jlbnm ,scnhtt> xtv crjhjcnm> crjnjhjq 'rjcbcntvs cvjuen flfgnbhjdfnmcz b cfvjdjccnf-yfdkbdfnmcz& rhjvt njuj> ghzvjt dkbzybt yf 'rjcbcntvs,eltn jrfpsdfnm edtkbxtybt cjlth;fybz CO2 d fnvjc-atht> rjnjhjt vj;tn ghbdtcnb r gjdsityb/ ghjler-nbdyjcnb b 'aatrnbdyjcnb bcgjkmpjdfybz djls ytrjnjhs-vb dblfvb hfcntybq. Dnjhbxyst djpltqcndbz bpvtytybzrkbvfnf vjuen ghjzdkznmcz d bpvtytybz[ [fhfrnthbcnbrgjxd b d 'rjkjubxtcrb[ yfheitybz[ !yfghbvth% djpybr-yjdtybt gj;fhjd> hfcghjcnhfytybt dhtlbntktq b,jktpytq@> rjnjhst ,elen ,jktt ,kfujghbznys lkz jlyb[dbljd> xtv lkz lheub[> b ghbdtlen> d htpekmnfnt> rbpvtytyb/ cjcnfdf dbljd d 'rjcbcntvf[.

Yf jcyjdt htpekmnfnjd hf,jns c vjltkzvb hfcghjcnhfytybzhfcnbntkmyjcnb> ghb rjnjhjq bcgjkmpjdfkbcm jcyjdfyyst yfVJW cwtyfhbb rkbvfnf> vj;yj cltkfnm dsdjl j njv> xnjcktletn j;blfnm pyfxbntkmys[ cvtotybq uhfybw hfcghjcn-hfytybz hfcnbntkmyjcnb d ,jktt dscjrbt ibhjns b yf,∆kmibt dscjns. Gj dctq dthjznyjcnb bpvtybncz bcjdjregyjcnm dbljd dyenhb jghtltktyys[ rkfccjd hfcnb-ntkmyjcnb. D hfvrf[ cwtyfhbtd rkbvfnf d eckjdbz[ hfdyj-

dtcbz> gjkextyys[ c gjvjom/ VJW> yf pyfxbntkmys[nthhbnjhbz[ j;blftncz evtymitybt hfcnbntkmyjuj gjrhjdfdcktlcndbt pfce[> lf;t tckb extcnm ghzvjt ,kfujghbznyjtdjpltqcndbt yf hfcntybz j,jufotybz CO2. Lkz chfdytybz>d hfvrf[ cwtyfhbtd c rkbvfnjv d gtht[jlyjv cjcnjzybb> drjnjhs[ cjlth;fybt vfks[ ufpjds[ ghbvtctq gjdsiftnczvtlktyyj d ntxtybt hzlf ktn> gjkyjvfcinf,yst djpltqcndbzbpvtytybq d ntvgthfneht b rjkbxtcndt fnvjcathys[ jcflrjdyf ytcrjkmrj ltcznbktnbq jncnf/n jn djpltqcndbq bpvtytybzd cjcnfdt fnvjcaths. Cjjndtncndtyyj ,kfujghbznyst djpltq-cndbz CO2 ghjzdkz/ncz hfymit> xtv gjkyjvfcinf,ystdjpltqcndbz bpvtytybq d rkbvfnt.

Bpvtytybt rkbvfnf> cjukfcyj ghjuyjpfv> ,eltn ghjbc[jlbnm,jktt ,scnhsvb ntvgfvb> xtv crjhjcnm> c rjnjhjq ghjbp-hfcnf/n> djcghjbpdjlzncz b cfvjdjccnfyfdkbdf/ncz ktcystdbls hfcntybq !cxbnftncz> xnj crjhjcnm vbuhfwbbhfpkbxys[ dbljd lthtdmtd d ghjikjv cjcnfdkzkf gjhzlrf4–200 rv d cnjktnbt@. D njv> xnj rfcftncz htubjyjd dchtlyb[ ibhjnf[> nj chtlytt gjntgktybt yf 1–3,5 °C dcktle/obt 100 ktn ,eltn jpyfxfnm gthtvtotybtceotcnde/ob[ utjuhfabxtcrb[ pjy c jlbyfrjdsvb ntvgt-hfnehfvb !bkb ≤bpjnthv≥@ d yfghfdktybb r gjk/cfvghbvthyj yf 150–550 rv bkb gthtvtotybt gj dscjntghbvthyj yf 150–550 v. Cjjndtncndtyyj cjcnfd dbljdhfcntybq d ktcf[> gj dctq dthjznyjcnb> bpvtybncz. Dytrjnjhs[ htubjyf[ vjuen gjkyjcnm/ bcxtpyenm wtkst nbgsktcjd> b jlyjdhtvtyyj c 'nbv vjuen djpybryenm yjdstcjdjregyjcnb dbljd b cjjndtncndtyyj yjdst 'rjcbcntvs.Yf pyfxbntkmyjq xfcnb ceotcnde/ob[ ktcys[ nthhbnjhbqptvyjuj ifhf !d chtlytv gj ptvyjve ifhe yf jlyjq nhtnbnthhbnjhbq c dfhbfwbzvb gj htubjyfv jn jlyjq ctlmvjq ljlde[ nhtntq@ d rfxtcndt jlyjuj bp gjcktlcndbq djpvj;ys[bpvtytybq d ntvgthfneht b d yfkbxbb djls d eckjdbz[hfdyjdtcbz ghb 'rdbdfktynt eldjtyyjuj cjlth;fybz CO2ghjbpjqlen rhegyst bpvtytybz d ibhjrj hfcghjcn-hfytyys[ nbgf[ hfcnbntkmyjcnb& ghb 'njv yfb,jkmibtbpvtytybz ghjbpjqlen d dscjrb[ ibhjnf[ b yfbvtymibt —d nhjgbrf[. D nhjgbxtcrjq pjyt yf tcntcndtyys[ gfcn-,boys[ eujlmz[ rhegyst bpvtytybz d ghjlernbdyjcnb bcjcnfdt dbljd ghjbpjqlen d htpekmnfnt bpvtybdib[czrjkbxtcnd lj;ltds[ jcflrjd b ctpjyyjcnb> f nfr;t edtkb-xtybz 'dfgjnhfycgbhfwbb> d nj dhtvz rfr gjdsitybt jlyjqnjkmrj chtlytq ntvgthfnehs yt cvj;tn ghbdtcnb r nfrbvbpvtytybzv.D njv> xnj rfcftncz 'rjcbcntv dj dyenhtyyb[ djljtvf[> njjyb gjxedcnde/n yf ct,t dkbzybt bpvtytybz rkbvfnf dhtpekmnfnt bpvtytybz ntvgthfneh djls> ht;bvjd gjnjrjd>ehjdytq djls b nfzybz dtxyjq vthpkjns d dscjrb[ibhjnf[. D jpthf[ b htrf[ gjntgktybt jrf;tn yfb,jkm-itt djpltqcndbt yf ,bjkjubxtcrbt j,(trns d dscjrb[ibhjnf[> ult djphfcntn ,bjkjubxtcrfz ghjlernbdyjcnm bhfcibhbncz lbfgfpjy [jkjlyjdjlys[ dbljd& d ybprb[ ;tibhjnf[ bpvtyzncz uhfybws pjy ceotcndjdfybz dbljd> ;b-deob[ d [jkjlyjq b j[kf;ltyyjq djlt> b bvtyyj nfvdsvbhfybt dbljd ,eltn ghjbc[jlbnm d yfb,jkmib[ vfc-inf,f[. Edtkbxtybt bpvtyxbdjcnb cnjrjd> jcj,tyyj d njv>

3Gjcktlcndbz bpvtytybz rkbvfnf lkz htubjyjd% jwtyrf ezpdbvjcnb

xnj rfcftncz xfcnjns b ghjljk;bntkmyjcnb rhegys[gfdjlrjd b pfce[> ghbdtltn r e[elityb/ rfxtcndf djls>cyb;tyb/ ,bjkjubxtcrjq ghjlernbdyjcnb b evtymityb/chtl j,bnfybz d gjnjrf[. D htpekmnfnt bpvtytybq dntvgthfnehf[ b rjkbxtcndt fnvjcathys[ jcflrjd bpvtybn-cz> dthjznyj> utjuhfabxtcrjt hfcghtltktybt pf,jkjxtyys[ptvtkm& ghb 'njv dtcmvf ytjghtltktyysv jcnftncz jndtn yfdjghjc j njv> rfrbvb ,elen gjcktlcndbz lkz xbcns[ds,hjcjd gfhybrjds[ ufpjd c pf,jkjxtyys[ ptvtkm> yf[j-lzob[cz dyt ghbkbdyj-jnkbdys[ pjy gj,tht;mz. Jcj,tyyjgjl ,jkmibv hbcrjv jn bpvtytybz rkbvfnf b lheub[ yfu-hepjr yf[jlzncz ytrjnjhst ghb,ht;yst 'rjcbcntvs!cjkzyst vfhib> vfyuhjdst 'rjcbcntvs> ghb,ht;yst pf,j-kjxtyyst ptvkb> rjhfkkjdst hbas> rjhfkkjdst fnjkks bltkmns htr@. Bpvtytybz d 'nb[ 'rjcbcntvf[ d pyfxbntkmyjqcntgtyb yt,kfujghbznyj gjdkbz/n yf pfgfcs ghtcyjq djls>hs,yst [jpzqcndf> ,bjhfpyjj,hfpbt b nehbpv.

Dfhbfyns flfgnfwbb lkz 'rjcbcntv juhfybxtys> f b['aatrnbdyjcnm jcnftncz gjl djghjcjv. Cjjndtncnde/obtdfhbfyns drk/xf/n cjplfybt rjhbljhjd lkz cjltqcndbz≤vbuhfwbb≥ 'rjcbcntv> eghfdktybt ptvktgjkmpjdfybtv>yfcf;ltybt hfcntybq b djccnfyjdktybt ltuhflbhjdfdib[nthhbnjhbq. Gjcrjkmre pfghjuyjpbhjdfyyfz crjhjcnm bpvt-ytybz rkbvfnf ,eltn ,jkmit crjhjcnb> c rjnjhjq hfp-kbxyst dbls vjuen cfvjdjccnfyfdkbdfnmcz> f nfr;t dcktl-cndbt bpjkzwbb b ahfuvtynfwbb vyjub[ 'rjcbcntv> ceotcn-djdfybz vyj;tcndtyys[ cnhtccjd !yfghbvth% bpvtytybzptvktgjkmpjdfybz> pfuhzpytybz@ b juhfybxtyyjcnb dfhbfy-njd flfgnfwbb> 'rjcbcntvs !jcj,tyyj ktcyst cbcntvs>ujhyst cbcntvs b rjhfkkjdst hbas@ zdkz/ncz ezpdbvsvblkz djpltqcndbq bpvtytybz rkbvfnf.

4.2 Ublhjkjubz b djlyst htcehcs

Yfkbxbt djls zdkztncz jlybv bp xhtpdsxfqyj df;ys[ rjvgj-ytynjd ,kfujcjcnjzybz b ghjlernbdyjcnb. Yf ctujlyziybqltym 1,3 vkhl xtkjdtr yf ptvyjv ifht yt bvt/n ljcnegf ryflkt;fobv htcehcfv ,tpjgfcyjq djls> b 2 vkhl xtkjdtrkbitys yflkt;fob[ cfybnfhys[ eckjdbq. {jnz 'nb lfyystrfcf/ncz k/ltq> ghj;bdf/ob[ gj dctve ptvyjve ifhe> bceotcnde/n ce,yfwbjyfkmyst hfpkbxbz d pfgfcf[ b rfxtcndtdjls> 19 cnhfy !d jcyjdyjv yf Chtlytv Djcnjrt b d ctdthyjqb /;yjq xfcnz[ Fahbrb@ cnfkrbdf/ncz c nfrjq cthmtpyjqyt[dfnrjq djls> xnj jyb rkfccbabwbhe/ncz kb,j rfr cnhfysc ytljcnfnjxysvb djlysvb htcehcfvb> kb,j rfr cnhfys>bcgsnsdf/obt cnhtcc bp-pf yt[dfnrb djls& ghtlgjkfuftncz>xnj dcktlcndbt edtkbxtybz cghjcf yf djle d htpekmnfnt 'rjyj-vbxtcrjuj hfpdbnbz b hjcnf yfctktybz rjkbxtcndj nfrb[cnhfy ghbvthyj eldjbncz r 2025 u. Yfghbvth> ,jkmibycndjkbw> jghtltkz/ob[ gjkbnbre> ghbpyftn d yfcnjzott dhtvz>xnj lkz rkbvfnf Fahbrb [fhfrnthys gthbjlbxtcrbgjdnjhz/obtcz pfce[b. Bpvtytybt ;t rkbvfnf d ,eleotvghbdtltn r lfkmytqitve edtkbxtyb/ d hzlt vtcn xfcnjns bvfcinf,jd pfce[.

Bpvtytybz d rkbvfnt vjuen ecbkbnm gthbjlbxtcre/ b[hjybxtcre/ yt[dfnre djls> jcj,tyyj d pfceikbds[ bgjkepfceikbds[ hfqjyf[ vbhf. Hfpdbdf/obtcz cnhfys ddscitq cntgtyb ezpdbvs r djpltqcndbzv bpvtytybzrkbvfnf> gjcrjkmre vyjubt bp yb[ yf[jlzncz d pfceikbds[b gjkepfceikbds[ htubjyf[> b ,jkmibycndj bpdktrftncdjb djlyst htcehcs bp cbcntv tlbycndtyys[ njxtxys[bcnjxybrjd> nfrb[> rfr ghj,ehtyyst crdf;bys bkbbpjkbhjdfyyst djljtvs. "nb cbcntvs gj cdjtve [fhfrnthezdkz/ncz ezpdbvsvb> gjcrjkmre d nfrb[ cbcntvf[ jncen-cnde/n htpthdyst djpvj;yjcnb djljj,tcgtxtybz yf ckexfqytdjpvj;yjcnb bcgjkmpjdfybz jcyjdyjuj bcnjxybrf. Rnjve ;t> dcktlcndbt juhfybxtyyjcnb nt[ybxtcrb[>abyfycjds[ b eghfdktyxtcrb[ htcehcjd d hfpdbdf/ob[czcnhfyf[ ehtuekbhjdfybt gjkj;tybz ghb yt[dfnrt djlsb#bkb jceotcndktybb vth flfgnfwbb kz;tn nz;tksv,htvtytv yf b[ yfwbjyfkmye/ 'rjyjvbre. Dj vyjub[htubjyf[ c evthtyysv b dkf;ysv rkbvfnjv jlyjq bprhegytqib[ ghj,ktv> cjukfcyj e;t bvt/obvcz cdblt-ntkmcndfv> cnfyen yfdjlytybz> xnj gjnht,etn vth flfg-nfwbb yt njkmrj r pfce[fv b [hjybxtcrjq yt[dfnrt djls>yj nfr;t b r yfdjlytybzv b cdzpfyysv c ybvb gjdht;-ltybzv& cjjndtncndtyyj djphfcnftn jpf,jxtyyjcnm jnyjcb-ntkmyj yflt;yjcnb lfv, b gkjnby.

Gjcktlcndbz bpvtytybz rkbvfnf ,elen pfdbctnm jn bc[jl-yjuj cjcnjzybz cbcntvs djljj,tcgtxtybz b cgjcj,yjcnbkbw> eghfdkz/ob[ djlysvb htcehcfvb> htfubhjdfnm ytnjkmrj yf bpvtytybt rkbvfnf> yj nfr;t yf hjcn yfctktybzb bpvtytybz d cghjct> nt[yjkjubb> cjwbfkmyj-'rjyjvb-xtcrb[ b ghfdjds[ eckjdbz[.

Ceotcnde/n hfpkbxyst gjl[jls r evtymityb/ gjnty-wbfkmyjq ezpdbvjcnb djlys[ cbcntv r djpltqcndb/ bpvt-ytybz rkbvfnf. Cjjndtncnde/obt dfhbfyns drk/xf/ncbcntvs wtyjj,hfpjdfybz> bybwbfnbds gj gjdsityb/'aatrnbdyjcnb bcgjkmpjdfybz djlys[ htcehcjd> by;t-ythyst b cnhernehyst ecjdthitycndjdfybz byahf-cnhernehs djljj,tcgtxtybz> gjkbnbre d j,kfcnb ctkmcrjuj[jpzqcndf b ujhjlcrjt gkfybhjdfybt#eghfdktybt. Yfyfwbjyfkmyjv#htubjyfkmyjv ehjdyt d xbckt yfb,jkttghbjhbntnys[ vthjghbznbq vj;yj yfpdfnm ecbktybt dyb-vfybz r rjvgktrcyjve vt;ctrnjhfkmyjve eghfdktyb/djlysvb htcehcfvb> bcgjkmpjdfybt htxys[ ,fcctqyjd drfxtcndt tlbybw ghb eghfdktybb djlysvb htcehcfvb bcjltqcndbt ghfdbkmyjq ghfrnbrt wtyjj,hfpjdfybz b eghfd-ktybz. Exbnsdfz edtkbxtybt cghjcf yf djle> ibhjre/hfcghjcnhfytyyjcnm b xedcndbntkmyjcnm vyjub[ ghjcns[cbcntv eghfdktybz djlysvb htcehcfvb r rjkt,fybzv drjkbxtcndt fnvjcathys[ jcflrjd b d cnjrt> ghjljk;b-ntkmyjcnm gthbjljd dhtvtyb b pyfxbntkmyjcnm abyfycjds[hfc[jljd> ytj,[jlbvs[ lkz jceotcndktybz vyjub[ vthflfgnfwbb> vj;yj cltkfnm dsdjl j njv> xnj ctrnjh djlys[htcehcjd dj vyjub[ htubjyf[ b cnhfyf[ ezpdbv rdjpltqcndb/ gjntywbfkmys[ bpvtytybq d rkbvfnt.

Gjcktlcndbz bpvtytybz rkbvfnf lkz htubjyjd% jwtyrf ezpdbvjcnb4

4.3 Ghjbpdjlcndj ghjljdjkmcndbz bdjkjrybcns[ vfnthbfkjd

Yf ctujlyziybq ltym 800 vky xtkjdtr yf ptvyjv ifht ytgjkexf/n ljcnfnjxyjuj gbnfybz& gj vtht njuj rfryfctktybt ptvyjuj ifhf ,eltn djphfcnfnm> f lj[jls dytrjnjhs[ cnhfyf[ gjdsifnmcz> gjnht,ktybt ghjljdjkm-cndbz> rfr j;blftncz> nfr;t ,eltn edtkbxbdfnmcz beldjbncz d ntxtybt cktle/ob[ nht[-xtnsht[ ltcznbktnbq.Lkz cfvjuj gjcktlytuj eldjtybz ghjbpdjlcndf ghjlj-djkmcndbz gjnht,jdfkjcm ,jktt 25 ktn> b jyj ,skj jcyj-dfyj yf hfpdbnbb bhhbufwbb> dytctybb [bvbxtcrb[ elj,-htybq b bcgjkmpjdfybb dscjrjehj;fqys[ hfpyjdblyjcntqrekmnehys[ hfcntybq. Elfcncz kb gjdnjhbnm cnjkm pfvtxf-ntkmyjt ljcnb;tybt gjcktlyb[ 25 ktn jcnftncz gjrfytzcysv. Dct cbkmytt ghjzdkz/ncz ghj,ktvs> cdzpfyystc byntycbabrfwbtq ghjbpdjlcndf yf e;t bcgjkmpetvs[ptvkz[ !yfghbvth% [bvbxtcrbt b ,bjkjubxtcrbt cnjrb>pf,jkfxbdfybt b pfcjktybt gjxd> 'hjpbz b egkjnytybtgjxd@. Edtkbxtybt gkjofltq rekmnbdbhetvs[ ptvtkm>drk/xfz evtymitybt gkjofltq> ghtlyfvthtyyj dsdj-lbvs[ bp ghjbpdjlcndf c wtkm/ cjrhfotybz j,(tvfctkmcrj[jpzqcndtyyjq ghjlerwbb> nfr;t zdkztncz jlybvbp dfhbfynjd gjdsitybz j,otuj ghjbpdjlcndf ctkmcrj-[jpzqcndtyys[ rekmneh> jlyfrj jyj vj;tn ghbdtcnb rfrnbdbpfwbb rjyrehtywbb pf ptvk/ b r yfuheprfv yfghbhjlyst 'rjcbcntvs. Edtkbxtybt ctkmcrj[jpzqcntyys[ds,hjcjd gfhybrjds[ ufpjd> cjrhfotybt tcntcndtyys[gjukjnbntktq eukthjlf b hfcghjcnhfytybt ctkmcrjuj[jpzqcndf yf vfhubyfkmyst ptvkb — dct 'nb afrnjhsvjuen gjljhdfnm cgjcj,yjcnm r edtkbxtyb/ ctkmcrj-[jpzqcndtyyjuj ghjbpdjlcndf yf ecnjqxbdjq jcyjdt.

Bpvtytybz d rkbvfnt ,elen dpfbvjltqcndjdfnm c yfuhep-rfvb jn ghbyznbz vth gj edtkbxtyb/ ctkmcrj[jpzq-cndtyyjuj ghjbpdjlcndf> hfpkbxysvb genzvb yt,kfuj-ghbznyj crfpsdfzcm yf ehj;fz[ b ghjlernbdyjcnbctkmcrj[jpzqcndtyys[ rekmneh d pfdbcbvjcnb jn nbgjdctkmcrj[jpzqcndtyyjq ghfrnbrb b cbcntv> ghbvtyztvs[yf vtcnf[. Jcyjdyst ghzvst djpltqcndbz ,elen dshf-;fnmcz d bpvtytybz[ ntvgthfnehs> rjkbxtcndf fnvjc-athys[ jcflrjd> ghjljk;bntkmyjcnb dtutnfwbjyyjujgthbjlf> hfcghtltktybb dj dhtvtyb 'rcnhtvfkmys[zdktybq bkb rhbnbxtcrb[> ghtltkmyj ljgecnbvs[gfhfvtnhjd> jn rjnjhs[ pfdbcbn hfpdbnbt ctkmcrj-[jpzqcndtyys[ rekmneh> f nfr;t d bpvtytybb cjlth;fybzCO2 d fnvjcatht !rjnjhjt vj;tn jrfpfnm b ,kfuj-ghbznyjt djpltqcndbt yf hfpdbnbt vyjub[ nbgjdctkmcrj[jpzqcndtyys[ rekmneh@. Rjcdtyyst djpltqcndbz,elen ghjzdkznmcz d gjntywbfkmyj yt,kfujghbznys[bpvtytybz[ d hfcghjcnhfytybb ,jktpytq> ctkmcrj[jpzq-cndtyys[ dhtlbntktq b cjhyzrjd> gjcktlcndbz rjnjhs[ d,jkmibycndt bvt/ob[cz bccktljdfybq gjrf totrjkbxtcndtyyj yt jghtltktys. Gjcnegf/obt cdbltntkm-cndf gj-ght;ytve gjlndth;lf/n dsdjls DLJ VU"BR jnjv> xnj lkz hfcneotuj yfctktybz d rkbvfnbxtcrb[eckjdbz[ hfdyjdtcbz ghb 2 × CO2 ≤ukj,fkmyjt ghjbp-

djlcndj ctkmcrj[jpzqcndtyyjq ghjlerwbb d wtkjv vj;tn,snm cj[hfytyj yf ehjdyt> jnyjcbntkmyj cjgjcnfdbvjv c,fpbcysv ghjbpdjlcndjv≥. Dsdjls gj htubjyfv> ghtlcnfd-ktyyst d yfcnjzotv cgtwbfkmyjv ljrkflt> cke;fn gjl-ndth;ltybtv j,jcyjdfyyjcnb ,tcgjrjqcndf j ≤gjnty-wbfkmys[ cthmtpys[ gjcktlcndbz[≥ djphfcnf/otuj hbcrfujkjlf d ytrjnjhs[ htubjyf[> jcj,tyyj d nhjgbrf[ bce,nhjgbrf[. Ujdjhz d wtkjv> d chtlyb[ b dscjrb[ibhjnf[ vj;tn yf,k/lfnmcz gjdsitybt ghjlernbdyjcnb>pfdbczott jn nbgf ctkmcrj[jpzqcndtyys[ rekmneh> gthbjlfdtutnfwbb> bpvtytybq d ntvgthfnehys[ ht;bvf[ bctpjyyjcnb fnvjcathys[ jcflrjd. D nhjgbrf[ b ce,-nhjgbrf[> ult ytrjnjhst ctkmcrj[jpzqcndtyyst rekmnehse;t dshfobdf/ncz yf ghtltkt gthtyjcbvjcnb dscjrjqntvgthfnehs b ult ljvbybhe/obv zdkztncz ctkmcrj-[jpzqcndtyyjt ghjbpdjlcndj yf ce[b[ ytjhjiftvs[ptvkz[> ehj;fb> gj dctq dthjznyjcnb> gjybpzncz.Athvths> dtleobt ytnjdfhyjt [jpzqcndj> b crjnjdjls>rjnjhst cjcnfdkz/n ,jkmie/ ljk/ ctkmcrjuj yfctktybz dytrjnjhs[ htubjyf[> nfr;t vjuen joenbnm ytufnbdystgjktlcndbz lkz cdjb[ lj[jljd. D nt[ htubjyf[> ultceotcndetn dthjznyjcnm evtymitybz lj;ltds[ jcflrjd>ctkmcrjt [jpzqcndj vj;tn gjcnhflfnm jn pyfxbntkmys[yt,kfujghbznys[ gjcktlcndbq.

Hs,yst [jpzqcndf b ghjbpdjlcndj hs,jghjlernjd xedcndb-ntkmys r bpvtytybzv d rkbvfnt b e;t d yfcnjzott dhtvzgjldthuf/ncz hbcre jn xhtpvthyjuj dskjdf hs,s> evtym-itybz fhtfkjd lkz dsdtltybz vjkjlyzrf b xhtpvthyjujpfuhzpytybz ghb,ht;ys[ djl b gj,tht;bq. D ukj,fkmyjvvfcinf,t ghjbpdjlcndj vjhcrb[ hs,ys[ [jpzqcnd> rfrghtlgjkfuftncz> jcnfytncz ghbvthyj nfrbv ;t> ytcvjnhz yfbpvtytybt d rkbvfnt& ghjbpdjlcndj ghjlerwbb d ghtcyj-djlys[ ,fcctqyf[ b ghjlerwbb frdfrekmnehs d dscjrb[ibhjnf[ dthjznyj edtkbxbncz ghb ghtlgjkj;tybb j njv>xnj tcntcndtyyfz bpvtyxbdjcnm rkbvfnf b cnhernehf b cbkfjrtfybxtcrb[ ntxtybq jcnfyencz ghbvthyj nfrbvb ;t. Jc-yjdyst gjcktlcndbz crf;encz yf yfwbjyfkmyjv b vtcnyjvehjdyz[> gjcrjkmre cvtyzncz wtynhs ghjbpdjlcndf.Gjkj;bntkmyst gjcktlcndbz bpvtytybz rkbvfnf> nfrbt>rfr edtkbxtybt gthbjlf hjcnf> cyb;tybt tcntcndtyyjqcvthnyjcnb d pbvybq gthbjl b ,jktt ,scnhst ntvgs hjcnfhs,s d dscjrb[ ibhjnf[> vjuen ,snm rjvgtycbhjdfysytufnbdysvb afrnjhfvb> nfrbvb> rfr bpvtytybz d ecnfyj-dbdib[cz c[tvf[ djcghjbpdjlcndf> vfhihenf[ vbuhfwbb bdpfbvjcdzpz[ dyenhb 'rjcbcntv.

Dcktlcndbt njuj> xnj djpltqcndbt ckbirjv vyjub[ cbkdspjdtn uke,jrbt bpvtytybz d ctkmcrj[jpzqcndtyyjvctrnjht> d rfxtcndt dfhbfynjd flfgnfwbb> rjnjhst gjdsifkb,s cgjcj,yjcnm r cfvjdjccnfyjdktyb/ ghb djpltqcndbbntreotq tcntcndtyyjq bpvtyxbdjcnb rkbvfnf b gjnty-wbfkmys[ bpvtytybq d chtlyb[ 'rcnhtvfkmys[ pyfxtybz[> fnfr;t ghtlyfpyfxfkbcm ,s lkz htitybz lheub[> dspsdf/ob[jpf,jxtyyjcnm ghj,ktv !yfghbvth lkz ,jhm,s c 'hjpbtq bpfcjktybtv gjxd@> vj;yj yfpdfnm dfhbfyns ≤yt dspsdf/obtcj;fktybq≥ bkb ≤dspsdf/obt vfkj cj;fktybq≥. Yfghbvth>

5Gjcktlcndbz bpvtytybz rkbvfnf lkz htubjyjd% jwtyrf ezpdbvjcnb

extn ctpjyys[ rkbvfnbxtcrb[ ghjuyjpjd ghb eghfdktybbctkmcrbv [jpzqcndjv vj;tn cjltqcndjdfnm ljgjkybntkmyjqflfgnfwbb> jcj,tyyj d htubjyf[> ult yf rkbvfn cbkmyjtdjpltqcndbt jrfpsdftn zdktybt "YCJ. Ghbtvktvjcnm 'nb[dfhbfynjd lkz hfpkbxys[ htubjyjd zdkztncz hfpyjq> dxfcnyjcnb> bp-pf hfpkbxbq d abyfycjds[ b bycnbnewbjyfkmys[djpvj;yjcnz[ xfcnyjuj ctrnjhf b ghfdbntkmcnd> gjpdjkz/ob[jceotcndkznm 'nb dfhbfyns d hfpkbxys[ htubjyf[. Dfhbfynsflfgnfwbb drk/xf/n dytctybt bpvtytybq d cjcnfd ctkmcrj-[jpzqcndtyys[ rekmneh> cjplfybt yjds[ hfpyjdblyjcntqctkmcrj[jpzqcndtyys[ rekmneh> dytctybt bpvtytybq d uhfabrbctdf b gjcflrb hfcntybq b ghfrnbre j,hf,jnrb gjxds> dytl-htybt yjds[ ,bjnt[yjkjubq b ekexitybt cbcntv eghfdktybzdjlysvb htcehcfvb b bhhbufwbtq> rjnjhst nht,e/n ,jkmib[rfgbnfkmys[ pfnhfn b juhfybxtys yfkbxbtv djlys[ htcehcjd.Lheubt dfhbfyns> nfrbt> rfr ghbvtytybt nt[yjkjubq vbyb-vfkmyjq b juhfybxtyyjq j,hf,jnrb gjxds> yt nht,e/n nfrjqxhtpvthyjq rfgbnfkbpfwbb> jlyfrj nht,e/n dscjrb[ ehjdytqgjlujnjdrb rflhjd b gjllth;rb d ctkmcrjv [jpzqcndt.

D nt[ htubjyf[> ult ctkmcrjt [jpzqcndj [jhjij flfgnbhjdfyjr ntreotq bpvtyxbdjcnb rkbvfnf b#bkb ult hsyjxyst bbycnbnewbjyfkmyst afrnjhs gjpdjkz/n gththfcghtltkznmbpkbirb ctkmcrj[jpzqcndtyyjuj ghjbpdjlcndf lkz rjvgty-cfwbb djpybrf/ob[ ltabwbnjd> ezpdbvjcnm r djpltqcndbzvbpvtytybq chtlyb[ b 'rcnhtvfkmys[ pyfxtybq gfhfvtnhjdrkbvfnf zdkztncz> d wtkjv> ytpyfxbntkmyjq. Jlyfrj d nt[htubjyf[> ult ctkmcrjt [jpzqcndj e;t ctqxfc yt cghfdkztncz c'rcnhtvfkmysvb zdktybzvb> ult hsyjxyst b bycnbne-wbjyfkmyst afrnjhs> cgjcj,cnde/obt gththfcghtltktyb/ltabwbnjd b bpkbirjd> yt ltqcnde/n b#bkb ult djpvj;yjcnbr flfgnfwbb juhfybxtys> ctkmcrj[jpzqcndtyysq ctrnjh vj;tnhfccvfnhbdfnmcz rfr cbkmyj ezpdbvsq r djpltqcndb/bpvtytybz rkbvfnf. Yf cntgtym ezpdbvjcnb ctkmcrj[jpzq-cndtyyjuj ghjbpdjlcndf r djpltqcndb/ bpvtytybz rkbvfnf drf;ljq rjyrhtnyjq cnhfyt bkb htubjyt ,elen jrfpsdfnmdkbzybt nfr;t b lheubt afrnjhs> yfghbvth% cntgtym cjjndtn-cndbz ceotcnde/ob[ cnherneh ntvgthfneh bkb fnvjcathys[jcflrjd ,kbprb[ r ghtltkfv dsyjckbdjcnb df;ys[ ctkmcrj-[jpzqcndtyys[ rekmneh& lj[jls yf leie yfctktybz& ghjwtyn-yfz ljkz 'rjyjvbxtcrjq frnbdyjcnb> jcyjdfyyjq yf ctkmcrj-[jpzqcndtyyjv ghjbpdjlcndt> b ghtlitcnde/ott ,fpbcyjtcjcnjzybt ctkmcrj[jpzqcndtyys[ ptvtkm.

4.4 Ghb,ht;yst cbcntvs

Ghb,ht;yst pjys [fhfrnthbpe/ncz ,jufnsv hfpyjj,hfpbtv'rjcbcntv b ,jkmibv rjkbxtcndjv cjwbfkmyj-'rjyjvbxtc-rb[ dbljd ltzntkmyjcnb. Gjrfpfntkm hjcnf yfctktybz dghb,ht;ys[ pjyf[ dj vyjub[ cnhfyf[ d ldf hfpf ghtdsiftnchtlybq gjrfpfntkm hjcnf yfctktybz gj cnhfyfv d wtkjv. Dyfcnjzott dhtvz gjlcxbnfyj> xnj ghbvthyj gjkjdbyf yfct-ktybz ptvyjuj ifhf ghj;bdftn d ghb,ht;ys[ pjyf[> [jnzljkz nfrjuj yfctktybz d hfpys[ cnhfyf[ dtcmvf hfpkbxyf.Gjcktlcndbz bpvtytybq d rkbvfnt ghjzdzncz lkz ghb,-ht;ys[ pjy d dblt gjdsitybz ehjdyz vjhz> hjcnf eoth,f

jn injhvjds[ yfujyjd b djpvj;ys[ bpvtytybq d xfcnjntb#bkb byntycbdyjcnb 'rcnhtvfkmys[ zdktybq.

Yf ctujlyziybq ltym d ghb,ht;ys[ pjyf[ vyjub[ cnhfye;t ghb[jlbncz cnfkrbdfnmcz c cthmtpysvb ghj,ktvfvb gj-dsitybz ehjdyz vjhz> rfr jlyjuj bp cktlcndbq dspdfyyjujntrnjybxtcrjq b fynhjgjutyyjq ltzntkmyjcnm/ jctlfybzuheynf. Gj jwtyrfv> yf ctujlyziybq ltym ghbvthyj 46 vkyxtkjdtr rf;lsq ujl gjldthuf/ncz hbcre yfdjlytybq jninjhvjds[ yfujyjd. Bpvtytybt rkbvfnf tot ,jkmiteceue,bn 'nb ghj,ktvs> xnj ghbdtltn r ytufnbdysv gjnty-wbfkmysv gjcktlcndbzv lkz 'rjcbcntv b cjplfyyjqxtkjdtrjv byahfcnhernehs gj,tht;bq. <jkmibt rjkb-xtcndf k/ltq bcgsnf/n yf ct,t ytufnbdyst gjcktlcndbzgjdsitybz ehjdyz vjhz& yfghbvth> ghb jncencndbbrfrb[-kb,j vth flfgnfwbb gjdsitybt ehjdyz vjhz yf 1 v!dth[ytt pyfxtybt lbfgfpjyf jwtyjr yf 2100 u. Hf,jxtquheggs I VU"BR@ pfcnfdbn ltcznrb vbkkbjyjd k/ltq d<fyukflti gtht,bhfnmcz d ,jktt ,tpjgfcyst vtcnf. Djp-hfcnf/ott xbckj xhtpdsxfqyj ,jkmib[ ujhjljd hfcgj-kj;tyj bvtyyj d ghb,ht;ys[ hfqjyf[> f 'nj jpyfxftn>xnj d ,jkmib[ j,(tvf[ vj;tn gjcnhflfnm cjplfyyfzxtkjdtrjv byahfcnhernehf. {jnz t;tujlyst pfnhfns yfpfobnyst vths lkz vyjub[ ujcelfhcnd zdkz/nczchfdybntkmyj yt,jkmibvb — ghbvthyj 0,1 % jn dfkjdjujdyenhtyytuj ghjlernf !DDG@ — chtlytujljdst pfnhfns lkzvyjub[ vfks[ jcnhjdys[ ujcelfhcnd cjcnfdkz/n d wtkjvytcrjkmrj ghjwtynjd jn DDG. Lkz ytrjnjhs[ jcnhjdys[ujcelfhcnd dscjrfz cnjbvjcnm j,tcgtxtybz pfobnys[ vthghjnbd injhvjds[ yfujyjd jpyfxftn ytdjpvj;yjcnm b[jceotcndktybz yf ghfrnbrt> jcj,tyyj tckb extcnmjuhfybxtyyjcnm rfgbnfkjd lkz bydtcnbwbq.

Gkz;b> l/ys> 'cnefhbb b ghb,ht;yst pf,jkjxtyyst ptvkbghbcgjcf,kbdf/ncz tcntcndtyysv b lbyfvbxysv j,hfpjv rbpvtytybzv d ghtj,kflf/ob[ dtnhf[ b djkyf[ nfr ;t>rfr b r bpvtytybzv d ehjdyt vjhz& d nt[ hfqjyf[> ulthfpdbnbt byahfcnhernehs yt zdkztncz xhtpvthysv> vj;yjjceotcndbnm pfgkfybhjdfyyst pfhfytt vths gj ghbcgj-cj,ktyb/ r bpvtytybzv b jncnegktyb/ duke,m ceib.Vj;yj nfr;t gthtcnhjbnm b gthtytcnb jcyjdyst rfgb-nfkmyst cjjhe;tybz d rjywt chjrf b[ pfghjtrnbhj-dfyyjuj ceotcndjdfybz. Jlyfrj d lheub[ hfqjyf[ pfgkf-ybhjdfyyst vths gj ghbcgjcj,ktyb/ r bpvtytybzv b gjjncnegktyb/ duke,m ceib yt zdkz/ncz jceotcndbvsvdfhbfynjv> b gj'njve ytj,[jlbvj ,eltn ghbybvfnmpfobnyst vths c bcgjkmpjdfybtv ndthls[ cnherneh!yfghbvth% cjjhe;tybz lfv,> yfcsgtq> cnty b ,fhmthjd>pfobof/ob[ jn yfdjlytybq@ b vzurb[ cnherneh !yfg-hbvth% gjlcsgrb gkz;tq> djccnfyjdktybz l/y b cjplfybzcbkmyj edkf;ytyys[ ptvtkm@. D xbckt afrnjhjd>juhfybxbdf/ob[ djpvj;yjcnm jceotcndktybz 'nb[ dfhb-fynjd> vj;yj yfpdfnm ytljcnfnjr abyfycjds[ chtlcnd>juhfybxtyyjcnm jhufybpfwbjyys[ b nt[yjkjubxtcrb[djpvj;yjcntq b yt[dfnre rdfkbabwbhjdfyyjuj gthcjyfkf.D ,jkmibycndt htubjyjd d cjdhtvtyys[ c[tvf[ gkfyb-hjdfybz b eghfdktybz ghb,ht;ysvb pjyfvb yt exb-

Gjcktlcndbz bpvtytybz rkbvfnf lkz htubjyjd% jwtyrf ezpdbvjcnb6

nsdftncz yb afrnjh ezpdbvjcnb rk/xtds[ cbcntv rdjpltqcndbzv bpvtytybq rkbvfnf b gjdsitybz ehjdyzvjhz> yb afrnjh ghjljk;bntkmyjcnb dhtvtyb> ytj,[j-lbvjuj lkz jceotcndktybz vyjub[ vth flfgnfwbb. Ytghj-levfyyfz gjkbnbrf gjjohztn 'rjyjvbxtcrjt hfpdbnbt dhfqjyf[> gjldth;tyys[ yt,kfujghbznysv djpltqcndbzv.Exbnsdfz hjcn gkjnyjcnb yfctktybz d ghb,ht;ys[ pjyf[>ghjljk;bntkmyjcnm dhtvtyb> ytj,[jlbvjuj lkz jceotcnd-ktybz vyjub[ vth flfgnfwbb> f nfr;t yfkbxbt jhufybpf-wbjyys[> abyfycjds[ b nt[yjkjubxtcrb[ juhfybxtybq!jcj,tyyj dj vyjub[ hfpdbdf/ob[cz cnhfyf[@> ghb,ht;-yst cbcntvs cktletn hfccvfnhbdfnm rfr ezpdbvst rdjpltqcndbzv bpvtytybz rkbvfnf.

4.5 Pljhjdmt xtkjdtrf

Yf ,jkmitq xfcnb gkfytns chtlyzz dthjznyfz ghjljk-;bntkmyjcnm ;bpyb djphfcnftn& d ljgjkytybt r 'njve d,jkmibycndt hfpdbdf/ob[cz cnhfy cyb;ftncz cvthnyjcnmyjdjhj;ltyys[ b ltntq. Jlyfrj d ghjnbdjgjkj;yjcnm'njq gjpbnbdyjq ntyltywbb yf,k/lftncz dct ,jkmitthfcghjcnhfytybt yjds[ b dyjdm djphj;lf/ob[cz nhfyc-vbccbjyys[ b byatrwbjyys[ ,jktpytq> nfrb[> rfr kb[j-hflrf ltyut> vfkzhbz> [fynfdbhec b [jkthf. Rhjvt njuj>ghjwtynyfz ljkz yfctktybz hfpdbdf/otujcz vbhf> ghj;b-df/otuj d rhegys[ ujhjlf[> edtkbxbncz> rfr j;blftncz>c 25 % !d 1960 u.@ lj ,jktt xtv 50 % r 2020 u.& ghb'njv d ytrjnjhs[ htubjyf[ ghjwtynyst ljkb ,elenyfvyjuj ,jkmit 'nb[ chtlyb[ pyfxtybq. Nfrbt bpvtytybzghbytcen gjkmpe kbim d ckexft> tckb jyb ,elen cjghj-dj;lfnmcz hfcibhtybtv ljcnegf r cfybnfhyjve j,cke;b-dfyb/> n. t. r rfyfkbpfwbjyysv cbcntvfv b j,tcgtxtyb/gbnmtdjq djljq. D ckexft ;t> tckb ljcneg r nfrjvej,cke;bdfyb/ yt ,eltn ekexity> 'nb bpvtytybz vjuenghbdtcnb r cthmtpysv ghj,ktvfv d ujhjlcrjq jrhe;f-/otq chtlt> drk/xfz% pfuhzpytybt djple[f !yfghbvth%ndthlsvb xfcnbwfvb> ghbptvysv jpjyjv b cdbywjv@>gkj[bt cfybnfhyst eckjdbz b cjjndtncnde/obt ghj,ktvsc rfxtcndjv gbnmtdjq djls.

Djpltqcndbz bpvtytybz rkbvfnf yf pljhjdmt xtkjdtrfvjuen ghjzdbnmcz d dblt edtkbxtybz cvthnyjcnb jnntgkjds[ yfuhepjr> hfcghjcnhfytybz nhjgbxtcrb[ nhfyc-vbccbdys[ ,jktpytq> ghj,ktv c pfuhzpytybtv ujhjlcrjujdjple[f b evtymitybz pf,jktdftvjcnb jn djpltqcndbq[jkjlf. Gj chfdytyb/ c j,obv ,htvtytv gkj[juj cjcnjz-ybz pljhjdmz xtkjdtxtcndf 'nb ghj,ktvs yt ghtlcnfd-kz/ncz pyfxbntkmysvb. Jlyfrj d cjdjregyjcnb ghzvst brjcdtyyst djpltqcndbz bpvtytybz rkbvfnf yf pljhjdmtxtkjdtrf ghtlcnfdkz/n cj,jq jgfcyjcnm lkz pljhjdmzyfctktybz> jcj,tyyj d hfpdbdf/ob[cz cnhfyf[> yf[jlz-ob[cz d nhjgbrf[ b ce,nhjgbrf[. "nb djpltqcndbz vjuend gjntywbfkt ghbdtcnb r ub,tkb pyfxbntkmyjuj rjkbxtcndfk/ltq> ytufnbdyj gjdkbznm yf yfctktyyst geyrns>gjdscbnm pfnhfns yf plhfdjj[hfytybt b edtkbxbnm rjkb-xtcndj gjnthzyys[ hf,jxb[ lytq. Gjkextyyst ghb gjvj-

ob vjltktq ghjuyjps !rjnjhst ytbp,t;yj jcyjdfys yfeghjotyys[ ghtlgjkj;tybz[@ erfpsdf/n yf nj> xnj utju-hfabxtcrfz pjyf gjntywbfkmyjuj hfcghjcnhfytybz vf-kzhbb hfcibhbncz d jndtn yf edtkbxtybt chtlytq ukj,fkm-yjq ntvgthfnehs d cjjndtncndbb c dth[ytq xfcnm/ pfghju-yjpbhjdfyyjuj VU"BR lbfgfpjyf !3-5 °C r 2100 u.@> xnjrj dnjhjq gjkjdbyt cktle/otuj cnjktnbz ghbdtltn redtkbxtyb/ gjldth;tyyjq vfkzhbb ljkb vbhjdjuj yfct-ktybz c ghb,kbpbntkmyj 45 % lj ghb,kbpbntkmyj 60 %.D hfqjyf[> ult vfkzhbz e;t ctqxfc zdkztncz hfcghjcn-hfytyyjq ,jktpym/> vj;tn yf,k/lfnmcz frnbdbpfwbzgthtlfxb ,jktpyb !gjhzlrf 50–80 vky ljgjkybntkmys[ckexftd d ujl> jnyjcbntkmyj jwtyjxyjuj ukj,fkmyjuj ajyfd wtkjv d 500 vky ckexftd@. D htpekmnfnt gjdsitybzntvgthfneh b hjcnf xbckf yfdjlytybq vj;tn nfr;t yf,-k/lfnmcz b ytrjnjhjt edtkbxtybt pf,jktdftvjcnbytnhfycvbccbdysvb byatrwbjyysvb ,jktpyzvb> nfrbvb>rfr cfkmvjytkktp> [jkthf b kzv,kbjp. Jlyfrj lfnm rjkb-xtcndtyyjt jghtltktybt ghjuyjpbhetvsv djpltqcndbzv yfpljhjdmt xtkjdtrf ljdjkmyj nhelyj> gjcrjkmre vfcinf,dspdfyys[ bpvtytybtv rkbvfnf yfheitybq pljhjdmz pfdb-cbn b jn lheub[ afrnjhjd> nfrb[> rfr vbuhfwbz> j,tcgt-xtybt xbcnjq jrhe;f/otq chtls d ujhjlf[> ekexitybtgbnfybz> edtkbxtybt pfgfcjd gbnmtdjq djls> ekexitybtcfybnfhys[ eckjdbq> vfcinf,s vth gj ,jhm,t cgthtyjcxbrfvb ,jktpytq> bpvtytybz d cjghjnbdkztvjcnbbyctrnbwblfv jhufybpvjd-gthtyjcxbrjd ,jktpytq b j,tc-gtxtybt ,jktt ibhjrjuj ljcnegf r eckeufv plhfdjj[hf-ytybz. Pljhjdmt xtkjdtrf ezpdbvj r djpltqcndb/ bpvtyt-ybz rkbvfnf> jcj,tyyj d ujhjlcrb[ hfqjyf[> ult ghjcnhfy-cndtyyjt htuekbhjdfybt vj;tn ,snm juhfybxtyj> f nfr;td hfqjyf[> ult gjldth;tyyjcnm nhfycvbccbdysv pfhfpysv,jktpyzv vj;tn edtkbxbnmcz> f ghtljcnfdktybtvtlbwbycrb[ eckeu b lheujuj ,fpbcyjuj j,cke;bdfybz>yfghbvth j,tcgtxtybt cfybnfhbb> jcnfytncz ytljc-nfnjxysv.

5. Pf,kfujdhtvtyyfz flfgnfwbz d rjyntrcntntreotq gjkbnbrb b eckjdbq

Rk/xtdfz bltz ghtlcnfdktyys[ d yfcnjzotv ljrkflt htubj-yfkmys[ jwtyjr pfrk/xftncz d njv> xnj vyjubt cbcntvs bdbls gjkbnbrb yt ghbcgjcj,ktys lf;t r ctujlyziytverkbvfne b bpvtyxbdjcnb rkbvfnf. Dctdjphfcnf/obt gjnthbxtkjdtxtcrb[ ;bpytq b rfgbnfkjd> cdzpfyyst c yfdjlyt-ybzvb> injhvfvb b pfce[fvb> cdbltntkmcnde/n j ceotcnde-/otq yf ctujlyziybq ltym ezpdbvjcnb. Nfrfz cbnefwbzghtlgjkfuftn> xnj ytj,[jlbvs dfhbfyns flfgnfwbb> rjnjhstgjpdjkbkb ,s vyjubv ctrnjhfv cnfnm ,jktt ;bpyt-cgjcj,ysvb d ctujlyziyb[ eckjdbz[> b> ntv cfvsv> gjvjukb,s bv flfgnbhjdfnmcz r ,eleobv bpvtytybzv d rkbvfnt."nb dfhbfyns> nfr yfpsdftvst dfhbfyns ≤dsbuhsi-dsbuhsi≥bkb ≤yt dspsdf/obt cj;fktybq≥> vjuen ,snm dtcmvf'aatrnbdysvb> b jceotcndktybt ,jkmibycndf bp yb[ lfcngjktpyst htpekmnfns lf;t ghb jncencndbb djpltqcndbqbpvtytybz rkbvfnf.

7Gjcktlcndbz bpvtytybz rkbvfnf lkz htubjyjd% jwtyrf ezpdbvjcnb

Dj vyjub[ cnhfyf[ 'rjyjvbxtcrbt eckjdbz b 'rjyj-vbxtcrfz gjkbnbrf !yfghbvth% yfkjub> ce,cblbb bhtuekbhe/obt yjhvs@> ajhvbhe/obt [fhfrnth htitybq>ghbybvftvs[ d xfcnyjv ctrnjht> f nfr;t cnhfntubb hfp-dbnbz b cnhernehs bcgjkmpjdfybz htcehcjd !f cktlj-dfntkmyj> b cjcnjzybt jrhe;f/otq chtls@> ghtgzncnde/njceotcndktyb/ vth flfgnfwbb. Dj vyjub[ cnhfyf[> yfg-hbvth> djljj,tcgtxtybt jcyjdfyj yf ljnfwbz[> cnbvekbhezxhtpvthyjt hfc[jljdfybt djls> xnj bcnjoftn ceotcnde-/obt bcnjxybrb b pfnhelyztn ghbyznbt vth gj 'rjyjvbbdjls —'nj dgjkyt vj;tn ,snm jlybv bp 'ktvtynjd ,eleob[cnhfntubq flfgnfwbb. D rfxtcndt lheub[ ghbvthjd vj;yjyfpdfnm ytghfdbkmyjt pjybhjdfybt ghb ptvktgjkmpjdfybbb#bkb gjllth;re ce,cblbzvb cnhf[jdfybz yf ckexfqcnb[bqys[ ,tlcndbq> xnj cgjcj,cndetn hfpdbnb/ byahf-cnhernehs d hfqjyf[> gjldth;tyys[ yfdjlytybzv bkblheubv cnb[bqysv ,tlcndbzv> f 'nb hfqjys vjuen cnfnmtot ,jktt ezpdbvsvb d htpekmnfnt bpvtytybz rkbvfnf.Flfgnfwbz b ekexitybt extnf ljkujchjxys[ gjcktlcndbqbcgjkmpjdfybz htcehcjd jrhe;f/otq chtls vjuen ,snmj,tcgtxtys> ,kfujlfhz wtkjve hzle gjl[jljd> drk/xfz%erhtgktybt ghfdjds[ b bycnbnewbjyfkmys[ jcyjd>ecnhfytybt e;t ceotcnde/ob[ ltajhvfwbq hsyrf!yfghbvth ljnfwbq@> bcghfdktybt ytljcnfnrjd hsyrf!yfghbvth% jncencndbt d wtyt njdfhjd cnjbvjcnb eoth,f>yfytctyyjuj jrhe;f/otq chtlt> bkb bcnjotybt htcehcjd>bkb ytfltrdfnyfz 'rjyjvbxtcrfz jwtyrf ,bjkjubxtcrjujhfpyjj,hfpbz@> cnbvekbhjdfybt exfcnbz dctuj yfctktybz btuj j,extybt. "nb dbls ltqcndbq gjpdjkzn ghbcgjcj,bnmceotcnde/obt cnhernehs bcgjkmpjdfybz htcehcjd rcjdhtvtyysv 'rjkjubxtcrbv eckjdbzv b> ntv cfvsv> gjluj-njdzn cbcntvs r gjntywbfkmysv ,eleobv bpvtytybzv.

Pflfxf yf ctujlyziybq ltym pfrk/xftncz d jghtltktybbnt[ djpvj;yjcntq> rjnjhst j,ktuxf/n ecnjqxbdjt hfp-dbnbt> ,kfujlfhz bcgjkmpjdfyb/ ceotcnde/ob[ nt[yj-kjubq b gjkbnbrb hfpdbnbz> gjpdjkz/ob[ xedcndbntkmysvr rkbvfne ctrnjhfv cnjqrj dslth;bdfnm ctujlyziy//bpvtyxbdjcnm rkbvfnf. "nf cnhfntubz gjnht,etn> xnj,slkz vyjub[ htubjyjd vbhf ,sk j,ktuxty ljcneg r yflkt-;fobv nt[yjkjubzv> byajhvfwbb b ljcnfnjxysv abyfy-cjdsv chtlcndfv. D ljgjkytybt r 'njve jwtyrb gj htubj-yfv gjlhfpevtdf/n> xnj lkz flfgnfwbb gjnht,e/ncz ghtl-dbltybt b gkfybhjdfybt. Ytcgjcj,yjcnm gjujnjdbnm cbc-ntvs r ghjuyjpbhetvsv bpvtytybzv d chtlyb[ pyfxtybz[bpvtyxbdjcnb b 'rcnhtvfkmys[ pyfxtybz[ rkbvfnf vj;tnghbdtcnb r njve> xnj rfgbnfkjtvrjt hfpdbnbt byahf-cnherneh bkb nt[yjkjubq ,eltn jceotcndkznmcz d vtcnf[>rjnjhst c extnjv ,eleob[ eckjdbq yt gjl[jlzn lkz 'njuj>f nfr;t r gjntht djpvj;yjcnb cybpbnm pfnhfns yfflfgnfwb/. Ytj,[jlbv ljgjkybntkmysq fyfkbp ctujlyzi-ytq ezpdbvjcnb r djpltqcndb/ ntreob[ rjkt,fybq rkb-vfnf b ceotcnde/ob[ vt[fybpvjd lkz flfgnfwbb r ybv>rjnjhsq gjpdjkbk ,s hfphf,jnfnm 'aatrnbdyst dfhbfynsflfgnfwbb r gjntywbfkmysv ,eleobv bpvtytybzv drkbvfnt.

6. Ezpdbvjcnm htubjyjd r djpltqcndbzvukj,fkmyjuj bpvtytybz rkbvfnf

6.1 Fahbrf

Lkz Fahbrfycrjuj rjynbytynf [fhfrnthys ytcrjkmrjrkbvfnbxtcrb[ ht;bvjd& yfb,jktt xfcnj dcnhtxf/ncz dkf;-ysq nhjgbxtcrbq> ce[jq nhjgbxtcrbq b gthtvtyysq dkf;-ysq—ce[jq dbls rkbvfnf. Vyjubt cnhfys yf rjynbytyntgjldth;tys djpltqcndbzv gthbjlbxtcrb[ pfce[& ytrjnjhst'gbpjls pfce[b> jcj,tyyj d /uj-djcnjxyjq xfcnb Fahbrb>cdzpfys c zdktybtv "YCJ. E[elitybt eckjdbq njhujdkb>ytghfdbkmyfz gjkbnbrf> dscjrbt ntvgs hjcnf yfctktybz bpyfxbntkmyfz yt[dfnrf rfgbnfkjd> yfhzle c jxtym bpvtyxbdsvrkbvfnjv> pfnhelyz/n lkz vyjub[ cnhfy cjplfybt nfrb[cnherneh ;bpytj,tcgtxtybz> rjnjhst gjpdjkbkb ,sevtymibnm yfuhepre yf ,fpe tcntcndtyys[ htcehcjd. Dhfvrf[ ghtlgjkj;tybz j njv> xnj ljcneg r yflkt;fotveabyfycbhjdfyb/ j,tcgtxty yt ,eltn> Fahbre cktletn hfc-cvfnhbdfnm rfr rjynbytyn> rjnjhsq d yfb,jkmitq cntgtybezpdbv r djpltqcndb/ ghjuyjpbhetvs[ bpvtytybq> gjcrjkmregjdctvtcnyfz ,tlyjcnm juhfybxbdftn djpvj;yjcnb lkzflfgnfwbb.

"rjcbcntvs. Yf ctujlyziybq ltym d Fahbrt nhjgbxtcrbtktcf b gfcn,boyst eujlmz yf[jlzncz gjl euhjpjq bp-pf yfu-hepjr cj cnjhjys yfctktybz b cbcntv ptvktgjkmpjdfybz."nf euhjpf ghjzdkztncz d gjntht ,bjhfpyjj,hfpbz>,scnhjv e[elitybb gjxdtyyjuj gjrhjdf b bcnjotybbpfgfcjd djls d htpekmnfnt hfpheitybz djljc,jhjd bdjljyjcys[ ujhbpjynjd. Bpvtytybz d rkbvfnt ,elen dpfb-vjltqcndjdfnm c 'nbvb jcyjdysvb bpvtytybzvb d jrhe;f-/otq chtlt> lj,fdkzz lfkmytqibt yfuheprb b e[elifzcbnefwb/. Lkbntkmyjt gjdsitybt chtlyb[ ntvgthfnehjrhe;f/otuj djple[f ,jktt xtv yf 1 °C ghbdtltn r pyfxb-ntkmysv bpvtytybzv d ktcyjv b nhfdzyjv gjrhjdt> hfcght-ltktybb> cjcnfdt b cnhernehf[ vbuhfwbb dbljd b hfcght-ltktybb ,bjvjd. Vyjubt jhufybpvs d gecnsyz[ e;tyf[jlzncz yf ghtltkt ds;bdftvjcnb> b ytrjnjhst bp yb[>dthjznyj> yt cvjuen ghbcgjcj,bnmcz r ;bpyb d ,jktt;fhrb[ eckjdbz[. Jcj,j ezpdbvsvb zdkz/ncz pfceikbdstb gjkepfceikbdst ce,htubjys b gfcn,boyst eujlmz ddjcnjxyjq b /;yjq xfcnz[ Fahbrb> f nfr;t nt nthhb-njhbb> rjnjhst e;t ctqxfc yf[jlzncz gjl euhjpjq bp-pfltuhflfwbb ptvtkm b jgecnsybdfybz. D ckexft> tckb rjkb-xtcndj lj;ltds[ jcflrjd edtkbxbncz> rfr 'nj ghjuyj-pbhetncz yf jcyjdt ytrjnjhs[ VJW> d yfujhmz[ djcnjxyjqxfcnb Fahbrb b 'rdfnjhbfkmyjq pjyt wtynhfkmyjq xfcnbFahbrb vfhubyfkmyst ptvkb cnfyen ,jktt ghjlernbdysvb>xtv d yfcnjzott dhtvz. Jlyfrj 'njn ,kfujghbznysq vjvt-yn ,eltn> dthjznyj> cdtlty yf ytn yfuheprjq cj cnjhjysyfctktybz yf vfhubyfkmyst ktcf b gfcn,boyst eujlmz.Dfhbfyns flfgnfwbb drk/xf/n ,jhm,e c eybxnj;tybtvktcjd> ekexitybt eghfdktybz gfcn,boysvb eujlmzvb>hfcibhtybt j[hfyztvs[ nthhbnjhbq b hfwbjyfkmyjtbcgjkmpjdfybt ktcjd.

Gjcktlcndbz bpvtytybz rkbvfnf lkz htubjyjd% jwtyrf ezpdbvjcnb8

Ublhjkjubz b djlyst htcehcs. Bp 19 cnhfy vbhf> rjnjhstd yfcnjzott dhtvz rkfccbabwbhe/ncz rfr ≤bcgsnsdf/obtcnhtcc bp-pf yt[dfnrb djls≥> ,jkmibycndj yf[jlbncz dFahbrt> b 'nj rjkbxtcndj> dthjznyj> ,eltn djphfcnfnm ytpf-dbcbvj jn bpvtytybz rkbvfnf d htpekmnfnt cdzpfyyjuj chjcnjv yfctktybz hjcnf cghjcf yf djle> ltuhflfwbbdjljc,jhys[ ,fcctqyjd ghb gthtvtyf[ d ptvktgjkmpjdfybbb pfbkbdfybz htxys[ ,fcctqyjd. Evtymitybt rjkbxtcndffnvjcathys[ jcflrjd> ghjuyjpbhetvjt yf jcyjdt ytrjnjhs[VJW lkz Cf[tkmcrjq pjys b /;yjq xfcnb Fahbrb> dckexft> tckb jyj ,eltn cjghjdj;lfnmcz cbkmyjq vt;uj-ljdjq bpvtyxbdjcnm/> vj;tn jrfpfnmcz hfpheibntkmysvlkz ublhjkjubxtcrjuj ,fkfycf dctuj rjynbytynf b gjlj-hdfnm hfpkbxyst> pfdbczobt jn yfkbxbz djls dbls cjwb-fkmyj-'rjyjvbxtcrjq ltzntkmyjcnb. Bpvtyz/obtcz rkbvf-nbxtcrbt eckjdbz vjuen pfnhelybnm eghfdktybt djlysvbhtcehcfvb rfr dyenhb cnhfy> nfr b vt;le cnhfyfvb.Gjyb;tybt ehjdyz djls d htrf[ b djlj[hfybkbof[ vj;tnytufnbdyj crfpfnmcz yf rfxtcndt djls dcktlcndbtedtkbxtybz cjlth;fybz ,snjds[ cnjxys[ djl b ghjvsi-ktyys[ cnjrjd> xnj ghbdtltn r edtkbxtyb/ gjntywbfkmyjqdjpvj;yjcnb dcgsitr ,jktpytq b evtymityb/ rjkbxtcndfb e[elityb/ rfxtcndf ghtcyjq djls lkz ljvfiytujbcgjkmpjdfybz. Dfhbfyns flfgnfwbb drk/xf/n% c,jh dj-ls> eghfdktybt cnjrjv djls bp djlj[hfybkbo b gjds-itybt 'aatrnbdyjcnb djljgjkmpjdfybz.

Ctkmcrjt [jpzqcndj b ghjljdjkmcndtyyfz ,tpjgfcyjcnm.Pf bcrk/xtybtv cnhfy-'rcgjhnthjd ytanb> d ,jkmibycndtfahbrfycrb[ cnhfy ukfdyjq jgjhjq 'rjyjvbrb zdkztnczctkmcrjt [jpzqcndj> yf ljk/ rjnjhjuj ghb[jlbncz 20–30 % DDG d Fahbrfycrjq Ce,cf[fht b 55 % jn dctqcnjbvjcnb fahbrfycrjuj 'rcgjhnf. D ,jkmibycndt fahb-rfycrb[ cnhfy pfyznbt ctkmcrbv [jpzqcndjv gjkyjcnm/pfdbcbn jn njuj> rfrbv ,eltn ctpjy lj;ltq> f 'nj jpyf-xftn> xnj Fahbrf jcj,tyyj ezpdbvf r djpltqcndb/ bpvt-ytybz rkbvfnf. Ecbkbdf/obtcz pfce[b vjuen cthmtpyjgjdkbznm yf yfkbxbt ghjljdjkmcndbz> rfr> yfghbvth> yfFahbrfycrjv hjut b d /;yjq xfcnb Fahbrb d 1980-[ bkb1990-[ ujlf[. Gjdsitybt chtlyb[ ntvgthfneh d pbvybqgthbjl nfr;t ,eltn ytufnbdyj crfpsdfnmcz yf jpbvjqgitybwt b gkjljds[ rekmnehf[> lkz rjnjhs[ ytj,[jlbvf[jkjlyfz pbvyzz gjujlf. Jlyfrj d ce,nhjgbxtcrjq Fahb-rt ,jktt ntgkst pbvs ,elen jpyfxfnm evtymitybtrjkbxtcndf gfue,ys[ pfvjhjprjd> xnj gjpdjkbn dshfob-dfnm gkjljdst rekmnehs> xedcndbntkmyst r pfvjhjprfv> yf,jktt djpdsityys[ vtcnf[> xtv d yfcnjzott dhtvz.Ghjlernbdyjcnm ghtcyjdjlys[ hs,ys[ [jpzqcnd vj;tnedtkbxbnmcz> [jnz dbljdjq cjcnfd hs,s vj;tn bpvt-ybnmcz. Bpvtytybz d lbyfvbrt jrtfyf vjuen ghbdtcnb rbpvtytybzv d c[tvf[ vbuhfwbb hs,s b> djpvj;yj> revtymityb/ vtcn j,bnfybz hs,s> jcj,tyyj d ghb,ht;-ys[ hs,ys[ [jpzqcndf[ gj bcreccndtyyjve hfpdtltyb/hs,s.

Ghb,ht;yst cbcntvs. Ytrjnjhst bp ghb,ht;ys[ pjyFahbrb> vyjubt bp rjnjhs[ e;t yf[jlzncz d cjcnjzybb

cnhtccf bp-pf yfuhepjr cj cnjhjys yfctktybz b pkjegjn-ht,ktybq ghb bcgjkmpjdfybb> gjldthuyencz cbkmysvyt,kfujghbznysv djpltqcndbzv d htpekmnfnt gjdsitybzehjdyz vjhz d cdzpb c bpvtytybtv rkbvfnf. <thtuf vyj-ub[ ghb,ht;ys[ ujcelfhcnd pfgflyjq b wtynhfkmyjqxfcntq Fahbrb !yfghbvth% Ctytufkf> Ufv,bb> Cmthhf-Ktjyt> Ybuthbb> Rfvtheyf> Uf,jyf> Fyujks@ zdkz/nczybprjkt;fobvb kfueyysvb ,thtufvb> gjldth;tyysvb'hjpbb b> cktljdfntkmyj> ezpdbvsvb r djpltqcndbzv ghbgjdsitybb ehjdyz vjhz& jcj,tyyj> tckb extcnm njn afrn>xnj d ,jkmibycndt 'nb[ cnhfy rhegyst b ,scnhj hfpdb-df/obtcz ujhjlf yf[jlzncz bvtyyj yf gj,tht;mt. Pfgfl-yjt gj,tht;mt xfcnj cnhflftn jn injhvjds[ yfujyjd b dyfcnjzott dhtvz gjldthuftncz hbcrfv 'hjpbb> yfdjlytybqb 'rcnhtvfkmys[ injhvjds[ zdktybq. Ghb,ht;yfz pjyfdjcnjxyjq xfcnb Fahbrb nfr;t bcgsnftn yf ct,t yt,kf-ujghbznyst djpltqcndbz> [jnz 'nf pjyf b yf[jlbncz dcgjrjqys[ eckjdbz[ d ntxtybt ,jkmitq xfcnb ujlf. Ntvyt vtytt> gjdsitybt ehjdyz vjhz b rkbvfnbxtcrbtrjkt,fybz vjuen evtymibnm ,eathye/ cgjcj,yjcnmrjhfkkjds[ b rfvtybcns[ hbajd> hfcgjkj;tyys[ dljkmdjcnjxyjuj gj,tht;mz> xnj edtkbxbn gjntywbfkmye/djpvj;yjcnm 'hjpbb. D hzlt bccktljdfybq gjrfpfyj> xnjd htpekmnfnt yfdjlytybq b 'hjpbb ,eltn gjnthzyf pyf-xbntkmyfz ljkz ctdthyjq xfcnb ltkmns Ybkf> xnj ghbdtltnr gjntht ctkmcrj[jpzqcndtyys[ ptvtkm b ujhjlcrb[ hfq-jyjd. Vths flfgnfwbb lkz ghb,ht;ys[ pjy Fahbrb e;thfphf,jnfys> jlyfrj jyb ,elen jxtym ljhjujcnjzobvb!rfr ghjwtynyfz ljkz jn DDG@ lkz vyjub[ cnhfy. "nbvths vjuen drk/xfnm djpdtltybt pfobnys[ cjjhe;tybqcj cnjhjys vjhz b gthtyjc d lheubt vtcnf ezpdbvs[ gjctktybqxtkjdtrf b lheub[ cjwbfkmyj-'rjyjvbxtcrb[ j,(trnjd.

Gjctktybz xtkjdtrf> gjvsiktyyjcnm b nhfycgjhn.Jcyjdyst ghj,ktvs> c rjnjhsvb> dthjznyj> ghbltnczcnjkryenmcz yfctktyb/ Fahbrb> ,elen cdzpfys c nfrbvb'rcnhtvfkmysvb rkbvfnbxtcrbvb zdktybzvb> rfr yfdjl-ytybz !b dspdfyyst bvb jgjkpyb d ytrjnjhs[ hfqjyf[@>cbkmyst dtnhs> pfce[b b ghbkbdyst djkys. D ckexft>tckb vfhubyfkmyst ptvkb cnfyen vtytt ghjlernbdysvb dyjds[ rkbvfnbxtcrb[ eckjdbz[> yfctktyb/> ghj;b-df/otve d vfhubyfkmys[ pjyf[> ghbltncz vbuhbhjdfnm dujhjlcrbt hfqjys !ult byahfcnhernehf e;t ghb,kb;ftnczr cdjbv ghtltkfv d htpekmnfnt yfuhepjr cj cnjhjysyfctktybz@. Bpvtytybt rkbvfnf vj;tn tot ,jkmit ecb-kbnm ceotcnde/obt ntyltywbb bcnjotybz htcehcjd 'yth-ubb> gjkexftvjq bp ,bjvfccs. Evtymitybt cnjrjd htrghbdtltn r cjrhfotyb/ ghjbpdjlcndf ublhj'ktrnhj'yth-ubb> xnj d cdj/ jxthtlm ytufnbdyj gjdkbztn yf ghjvsi-ktyyjt ghjbpdjlcndj b cjplfcn ytj,[jlbvjcnm ljhjuj-cnjzotuj gthtyjcf ytrjnjhs[ ghjvsiktyys[ ecnfyjdjr dlheubt vtcnf. <jhm,f c pfuhzpytybtv> eghfdktybt cfyb-nfhysvb vthjghbznbzvb> pf[jhjytybt jn[jljd> djlj-j,tcgtxtybt b plhfdjj[hfytybt nfr ;t> rfr b j,tcgtxtybtyflkt;fotq byahfcnhernehs d ujhjlcrb[ hfqjyf[> vjuencnfnm ujhfplj ,jktt nhelysv b ljhjujcnjzobv ltkjv dhtpekmnfnt bpvtytybz rkbvfnbxtcrb[ eckjdbq.

9Gjcktlcndbz bpvtytybz rkbvfnf lkz htubjyjd% jwtyrf ezpdbvjcnb

Pljhjdmt xtkjdtrf. Fahbrf> rfr ghtlgjkfuftncz> jrf;tnczd cjcnjzybb hbcrf ukfdysv j,hfpjv bp-pf ,jktt frnbdyjujhfcghjcnhfytybz nhfycvbccbdys[ ,jktpytq b e[elitybzgbnfybz. Gjntgktybt jrhe;f/otq chtls vj;tn ghbdtcnbr djpybryjdtyb/ yjds[ hfqjyjd hfcghjcnhfytybz vfkzhbb.Bpvtybdibtcz cnhernehs ntvgthfnehs b lj;ltds[ jcfl-rjd nfr;t vjuen ghbdtcnb r hjcne xbckf ckexftd djpyb-ryjdtybz ;tknjq kb[jhflrb> kb[jhflrb ltyut> jy[j-wthrjpf b nhbgfyjcjvjpf. Hjcn pf,jktdftvjcnb b cvthn-yjcnb d ce,htubjyf[> d rjnjhs[ d htpekmnfnt rkbvfnb-xtcrb[ bpvtytybq ,jktt frnbdyj yfxyen hfcghjcnhfyznmcznhfycvbccbdyst ,jktpyb> ghbdtltn r lfktrjbleobv'rjyjvbxtcrbv gjcktlcndbzv. Ddble gkj[juj 'rjyjvbxtc-rjuj cjcnjzybz ,jkmibycndf fahbrfycrb[ ujcelfhcndgjnht,e/ncz ukj,fkmyst ecbkbz lkz ,jhm,s c gjnty-wbfkmysvb ytufnbdysvb djpltqcndbzvb yf pljhjdmt xtkj-dtrf d 'nb[ cnhfyf[.

Nehbpv b lbrfz ghbhjlf. Nehbpv> jlby bp yfb,jktt,scnhj hfpdbdf/ob[cz ctrnjhjd 'rjyjvbrb Fahbrb>jcyjdfy yf yfkbxbb yf 'njv rjynbytynt lbrjq ghbhjls>pfgjdtlybrjd> ghb,ht;ys[ rehjhnjd b ,jkmib[ djlys[ghjcnhfycnd lkz jnls[f. Ghjuyjpbhetvst yf ,eleott pfce-[b b#bkb evtymitybt rjkbxtcndf fnvjcathys[ jcflrjd dCf[tkmcrjq pjyt b yf djcnjrt b /ut Fahbrb ghbdtlen rbcxtpyjdtyb/ lbrjq ghbhjls b evtymifn ghbdktrfntkm-yjcnm ytrjnjhs[ j[hfyztvs[ pfgjdtlybrjd> cjrhfnbd ntvcfvsv b lj[jls jn drkflsdftvs[ d yfcnjzott dhtvz dnehbpv ,jkmib[ bydtcnbwbq.

Dsdjls. Fahbrfycrbq rjynbytyn jcj,tyyj ezpdbv r djp-ltqcndb/ bpvtytybz rkbvfnf bp-pf nfrb[ afrnjhjd> rfrgjdctvtcnyfz ,tlyjcnm> gthbjlbxtcrb djpybrf/obt pfce-[b> ytcghfdtlkbdjt hfcghtltktybt ptvtkm b xhtpvthyfzpfdbcbvjcnm jn ytjhjiftvjuj ptvktltkbz. {jnz dfhbfynsflfgnfwbb> drk/xfz nhflbwbjyyst cnhfntubb ghtjljktybznhelyjcntq> ntjhtnbxtcrb e;t hfphf,jnfys> yf ghfrnbrtcgjcj,yjcnm xtkjdtxtcrb[> byahfcnhernehys[ b 'rjyjvb-xtcrb[ htcehcjd cdjtdhtvtyyj jnhtfubhjdfnm yf bpvtytybzvj;tn jrfpfnmcz lfktrj pf ghtltkfvb 'rjyjvbxtcrb[djpvj;yjcntq hzlf ujcelfhcnd.

6.2 Gjkzhyst htubjys% Fhrnbrf bFynfhrnbrf

Gjkzhyst htubjys drk/xf/n d ct,z cfvst hfpkbxyst gjkfylifanfv vtcnyjcnb> f Fhrnbrf b Fynfhrnbrf zdkz/nczjxtym hfpysvb gj cdjbv [fhfrnthbcnbrfv. Fhrnbrf jght-ltkztncz d yfcnjzotv ljrevtynt rfr dcz nthhbnjhbzdyenhb Ctdthyjuj gjkzhyjuj rheuf& gjl Fynfhrnbrjq dyfcnjzotv ljrevtynt gjlhfpevtdftncz dcz nthhbnjhbzdyenhb Fynfhrnbxtcrjq rjydthutywbb> drk/xfz rjynbytynFynfhrnble> ?;ysq jrtfy b ce,fynfhrnbxtcrbt jcnhjdf.Fhrnbrf vj;tn ,snm jgbcfyf rfr pfvthpibq jrtfy>jrhe;tyysq ceitq> f Fynfhrnbrf — rfr pfvthpibqrjynbytyn> jrhe;tyysq jrtfyjv. Ghjuyjpbhetvjt gjntg-ktybt ,eltn joeofnmcz d gjkzhys[ htubjyf[ d ,jkmitq

cntgtyb> xtv dj vyjub[ lheub[ htubjyf[ vbhf. Nfv> ultntvgthfnehs ,kbprb d chtlytv r njxrt pfvthpfybz> ukj-,fkmyjt gjntgktybt ghbdtltn r nfzyb/ kmljd rfr yf ceit>nfr b yf vjht> b d htpekmnfnt r gjdsityb/ ehjdyz vjhz.Jlyfrj dj dyenhtyyb[ xfcnz[ ktljds[ ifgjr gjdsitybtntvgthfnehs dhzl kb ,eltn ljcnfnjxysv lkz njuj> xnj,sghbdtcnb r nfzyb/ kmlf b cytuf> b> jxtdblyj> ghbdtltn redtkbxtyb/ yfrjgktybz cytuf.

"rjcbcntvs. Rhegyst abpbxtcrbt b 'rjkjubxtcrbtbpvtytybz ghjbpjqlen> rfr j;blftncz> d Fhrnbrt. Pfvthp-ibt nthhbnjhbb> ntvgthfnehf rjnjhs[ ,kbprf r njxrt pf-vthpfybz> yfxyen jnnfbdfnm b ghtnthgzn ghb gjntgktybbpyfxbntkmyst bpvtytybz. J;blftncz> xnj d Ctdthyjv Ktlj-dbnjv jrtfyt ghjbpjqltn pyfxbntkmyjt nfzybt vjhcrjujkmlf. Gj vtht gjntgktybz ,eltn ghjbc[jlbnm nfzybt dtxyjqvthpkjns> xnj ghbdtltn r bpvtytybzv d lhtyf;t> edtkb-xtyb/ jctlfybz uheynf b bpvtytyb/ kfylifanf yf,jkmib[ ghjcnhfycndf[. Gjntgktybt d gjkzhys[ hfqjyf[>djpvj;yj> gjdscbn ,bjkjubxtcre/ ghjlernbdyjcnm> yjvj;tn nfr;t ghbdtcnb r cvtyt cjcnfdf dbljd yf ptvkt b dvjht. Yf ceit> jxtdblyj> ghjzdbncz ntyltywbz r cvtytgjkzhys[ dbljd d rhegys[ ,bjvf[> nfrb[> rfr neylhf b,fhtfkmyst ktcf> f gjcktlcndbz 'njuj crf;encz yfj,bnf/ob[ nfv ;bdjnys[> jcj,tyyj yf nfrb[ dblf[> rfrvtldtlb b ctdthyst jktyb. Jlyfrj Ctdthysq Ktljdbnsqjrtfy xbcnj utjuhfabxtcrb juhfybxbdftn ldb;tybt yf ct-dth. Lkz Fynfhrnbrb> gj dctq dthjznyjcnb> ,elen [fhfr-nthys ujhfplj ,jktt vtkrbt bpvtytybz> jlyfrj nfv vj;tnyf,k/lfnmcz cvtyf dbljd. D vjht vjhcrbt 'rjcbcntvs,elen gthtvtofnmcz gj yfghfdktyb/ r gjk/ce. D j,jb[gjkzhys[ hfqjyf[ eckjdbz ,elen bpvtyznmcz yt,kfuj-ghbznyj lkz nt[ ;bdjnys[> ;bpym rjnjhs[ pfdbcbn jnyfkbxbz kmlf.

Ublhjkjubz b djlyst htcehcs. Gjdsitybt ntvgthfnehsghbdtltn r nfzyb/ dtxyjq vthpkjns b ,jkmib[ j,(tvjd kmlfb cytuf. Gjzdbncz ,jkmit ntreotq b cnjzxtq djls. Cbcntvslhtyf;f d Fhrnbrt> gj dctq dthjznyjcnb> bpvtyzncz dkjrfkmyjv vfcinf,t. Ktlzyjq gjrhjd yf htrf[ b jpthf[,eltn dcrhsdfnmcz hfymit> f pfvthpfnm jyb ,elen gjplytt.

Ghjbpdjlcndj ghjljdjkmcndbz b djkjrybcns[ vfnt-hbfkjd. Dtltybt ctkmcrjuj [jpzqcndf juhfybxtyj ;tcnj-rbv rkbvfnjv. Vyjubt juhfybxtybz cj[hfyzncz b d ,ele-otv> [jnz d Fhrnbrt b vj;tn yf,k/lfnmcz ytrjnjhjtyt,jkmijt gthtvtotybt pjy ptvktltkbz d ctdthyjv yfg-hfdktybb. D wtkjv> vjhcrfz 'rjkjubxtcrfz ghjlernbd-yjcnm ljk;yf gjdscbnmcz. Gjntgktybt ,eltn cgjcj,-cndjdfnm ecrjhtyb/ hjcnf b hfpdbnbz ytvktrjgbnf/ob[&jlyfrj dct tot djphfcnftn ekmnhfabjktnjdjt-D !EA-D@bpkextybt> rjnjhjt vj;tn yt,kfujghbznyj gjdkbznm yfgthdbxye/ ghjlernbdyjcnm b yf djcghjbpdjlcndj hs,s.

Ghb,ht;yst cbcntvs. Gj vtht gjntgktybz> ktlzyjqgjrhjd d Fhrnbrt ,eltn> dthjznyj> cnfyjdbnmcz dct vtymitb njymit. Yfdbufwbz d ghb,ht;yjq pjyt b yf htrf[ecbkbncz> b djpybryen yjdst djpvj;yjcnb lkz djlyjuj

Gjcktlcndbz bpvtytybz rkbvfnf lkz htubjyjd% jwtyrf ezpdbvjcnb10

nhfycgjhnf> nehbpvf b njhujdkb. Ctdthysq Ktljdbnsqjrtfy vj;tn cnfnm jlybv bp jcyjdys[ njhujds[ vfhihenjdyf ptvyjv ifht. Evtymitybt ktlzyjuj gjrhjdf ,eltn,kfujghbzncndjdfnm hfpdbnb/ lj,sxb ytanb d vjht.Ghtlgjkfuftncz> xnj gjl djpltqcndbtv cjdjregyjcnb nfrb[afrnjhjd> rfr gjdsitybt ehjdyz vjhz> nfzybt dtxyjqvthpkjns b ecbktybt ltqcndbz djky d htpekmnfnt edtkb-xtybz gkjoflb jnrhsnjq djls> ecbkbncz 'hjpbz ,thtujds[kbybq d Fhrnbrt. Dthjznyj> ghjbpjqltn nfr;t blfkmytqitt dcrhsnbt kmljd yf itkmaf[ Fynfhrnbxtcrjujgjkejcnhjdf. D lheub[ vtcnf[ d Fynfhrnbrt rfr yf,thtujds[ kbybz[> nfr b yf rhegys[ ktlzys[ itkmaf[>j;blftncz vfkj bpvtytybq.

Gjctktybz xtkjdtrf. Gjctktybz xtkjdtrf d Fhrnbrtbcgsnf/n yf ct,t pyfxbntkmyst djpltqcndbz jn ghjuyj-pbhetvs[ abpbxtcrb[ b 'rjkjubxtcrb[ bpvtytybq. Jcj-,tyyj pfvtnysvb 'nb djpltqcndbz ,elen lkz vtcnys[yfhjljd> dtleob[ nhflbwbjyysq j,hfp ;bpyb. Gjzdznczyjdst djpvj;yjcnb lkz celj[jlcndf> ytanzyjq ghjvsi-ktyyjcnb> hs,jkjdcndf> lj,sxb gjktpys[ bcrjgftvs[>nehbpvf b vbuhfwbb k/ltq. Ghjuyjpbhetvst lkz Fhrnbrbbpvtytybz d ktlzyjv gjrhjdt vjhz ,elen bvtnm rhegystcnhfntubxtcrbt gjcktlcndbz lkz njhujdkb> jcj,tyyj vt;leFpbtq b Tdhjgjq.

Dsdjls. Fynfhrnbxtcrbq gjkejcnhjd b Fhrnbrf jxtymezpdbvs r djpltqcndbzv ghjuyjpbhetvjuj bpvtytybz rkbvfnfb tuj gjcktlcndbq. {jnz rjkbxtcndj k/ltq> rjnjhst joenznyf ct,t ghzvst djpltqcndbz> chfdybntkmyj vfkj> vyjubtrjhtyyst ;bntkb cnjkryencz c uke,jrbvb bpvtytybzvb>rjnjhst gjdkbz/n yf b[ nhflbwbjyysq j,hfp ;bpyb.Ghzvst gjcktlcndbz vjuen drk/xfnm cvtye 'rjcbcntv>bcxtpyjdtybt kmlf yf vjhz[ b htrf[ b nfzybt dtxyjqvthpkjns. Rjcdtyyst gjcktlcndbz vjuen drk/xfnm j,hfnystdjpltqcndbz yf rkbvfnbxtcre/ cbcntve> nfrbt> rfrljgjkybntkmyst ds,hjcs gfhybrjds[ ufpjd> bpvtytybz dldb;eob[ cbkf[ wbhrekzwbb jrtfyf b gjdsitybtntvgthfnehs b edtkbxtybt fnvjcathys[ jcflrjd> dtleobt rnfzyb/ kmlf> xnj vj;tn gjdkbznm yf rkbvfn b ehjdtym vjhzd ukj,fkmyjv vfcinf,t. Dyenhtyyzz xfcnm Fynfhrnbls vtyttezpdbvf r djpltqcndb/ bpvtytybz rkbvfnf> gjcrjkmrebpvtytybz ntvgthfnehs> ghjuyjpbhetvst yf cktle/ottcnjktnbt> dhzl kb jrf;en pltcm pyfxbntkmyjt dkbzybt& rnjve ;t> d lfyyjv hfqjyt yf[jlbncz jxtym vfkj k/ltq.Jlyfrj cj[hfyztncz gjxnb gjkyfz ytjghtltktyyjcnmjnyjcbntkmyj ,fkfycf vfccs ktlzys[ obnjd Fynfhrnbls blfkmytqituj gjdtltybz pfgflyjfynfhrnbxtcrjuj ktlzyjujobnf !ybprfz dthjznyjcnm hfpheitybz d cktle/otv cnj-ktnbb@. Bpvtytybz d ktlzys[ obnf[ Fynfhrnbls vjuen ghb-dtcnb r gjdsityb/ ehjdyz vjhz b r bpvtytybzv d rkbvfnt/;yjuj gjkeifhbz.

6.3 Pfceikbdfz pjyf Pfgflyjq Fpbb !ChtlybqDjcnjr b pfceikbdfz pjyf Fpbb@

Lfyysq htubjy drk/xftn d jcyjdyjv pfceikbdst b

gjkepfceikbdst hfqjys Chtlytuj Djcnjrf b wtynhfkmyjqxfcnb Fpbb. "njn htubjy ghjcnbhftncz jn Nehwbb yfpfgflt lj Rfpf[cnfyf yf djcnjrt b jn Qtvtyf yf /ut ljRfpf[cnfyf yf ctdtht. D djcnjxyjq xfcnb 'njuj htubjyf djcyjdyjv ghtj,kflf/n ujhs.

"rjcbcntvs. Cjukfcyj ghjuyjpfv> gjkextyysv ghb gjvj-ob vjltktq hfcnbntkmyjuj gjrhjdf> ,jkmifz xfcnm nbgjdhfcnbntkmyjcnb d pfceikbds[ bkb gecnsyys[ pjyf[ ytghtnthgbn pyfxbntkmys[ bpvtytybq> n. t. ,jkmibycndjptvtkm> zdkz/ob[cz gecnsyzvb> nfr b jcnfyencz gecns-yzvb. <jktt pyfxbntkmyst bpvtytybz j;blf/ncz d cjcnfdtb hfcghtltktybb nbgjd hfcnbntkmyjcnb d gjkepfceikbds[hfqjyf[> yfghbvth% yf keuf[> gfcn,bof[ b d ktcys[vfccbdf[. Ghjuyjpbhetncz yt,jkmijt edtkbxtybtrjkbxtcndf fnvjcathys[ jcflrjd. Jlyfrj 'nj edtkbxtybt>gj dctq dthjznyjcnb> ,eltn rjvgtycbhjdfyj gjdsitybtvntvgthfnehs b bcgfhtybz. <jktt 'aatrnbdyjt bcgjkmpjdf-ybt djls ytrjnjhsvb hfcntybzvb d eckjdbz[ gjdsityyjujcjlth;fybz CO2 vj;tn ghbdtcnb r ytrjnjhjve gjds-ityb/ ghjlernbdyjcnb hfcntybq b r bpvtytybzv d cjcnfdt'rjcbcntv. Yfb,jktt ezpdbvsvb lkz djpltqcndbq bpvt-ytybz rkbvfnf d 'njv htubjyt ,elen> dthjznyj> gfcn,bof>gjujkjdmt crjnf b djlyst htcehcs> gjcrjkmre jybyf[jlzncz> ukfdysv j,hfpjv> d vfhubyfkmys[ hfqjyf[. Yt-rjnjhst yfuheprb yf ptvkb> rjnjhst dtlen r b[ ltuhf-lfwbb> vjuen ,snm evtymitys ,kfujlfhz yflkt;fotveeghfdktyb/ ptvktgjkmpjdfybtv> drk/xfz ujhjlcrjt gkfyb-hjdfybt. Hfpkbxyst dfhbfyns eghfdktybz> nfrbt> rfr,jktt hfwbjyfkmyjt eghfdktybt pfgfcfvb b ,jktt frnbd-yjt j,(tlbytybt fuhj- b 'rjcbcntv> vjuen ekexibnm cjc-njzybt ptvtkm b ghjnbdjltqcndjdfnm yfuheprfv> djpyb-rf/obv bp-pf bpvtytybz rkbvfnf. Lfyysq htubjy zdkz-tncz df;ysv htpthdfnjv lkz lbrb[ hjlcndtyys[ ajhvvyjub[ df;ys[ dbljd ctkmcrj[jpzqcndtyys[ rekmneh& ghbghbyznbb yflkt;fob[ vth gj b[ cj[hfytyb/ htubjycvj;tn gj-ght;ytve cke;bnm bcnjxybrjv utytnbxtcrjujvfnthbfkf b ghb ,eleob[ rkbvfnbxtcrb[ eckjdbz[.

Ublhjkjubz b djlyst htcehcs. Ghj,ktvf yt[dfnrb djls> crjnjhjq e;t cnfkrbdf/ncz vyjubt cnhfys d 'njvpfceikbdjv htubjyt> dhzl kb evtymibncz> jyf yfj,jhjnvj;tn cnfnm tot ,jktt cthmtpyjq ghb bpvtytybb rkbvfnf.Bpvtytybz d ghfrnbrt dshfobdfybz ctkmcrj[jpzqcndtyys[rekmneh b ekexitybt ghfrnbrb jhjitybz vjuenpyfxbntkmyj gjdscbnm 'aatrnbdyjcnm bcgjkmpjdfybz djls dytrjnjhs[ cnhfyf[. Nfzybt ktlybrjd> cjukfcyj ghjuyjpfv>ecbkbncz ghb bpvtytybb rkbvfnf> xnj ghbdtltn redtkbxtyb/ cnjrjd d ytrjnjhs[ htxys[ cbcntvf[ yf gthbjld ytcrjkmrj ltczntkbnbq> f pfntv gjcktletn evtymitybtcnjrjd d cdzpb c bcxtpyjdtybtv ktlybrjd.

Ghjbpdjlcndj ghjljdjkmcndbz b djkjrybcns[ vfnt-hbfkjd. Ghj,ktvs ltuhflfwbb ptvtkm b juhfybxtyyjtdjljj,tcgtxtybt cyb;f/n ghjlernbdyjcnm ctujlyziytujctkmcrjuj [jpzqcndf b euhj;f/n ghjljdjkmcndtyyjq ,tpj-gfcyjcnb ytrjnjhs[ cnhfy. Ceotcndetn ytcrjkmrj ghju-

11Gjcktlcndbz bpvtytybz rkbvfnf lkz htubjyjd% jwtyrf ezpdbvjcnb

yjpjd jnyjcbntkmyj djpltqcndbq bpvtytybz rkbvfnf yfghjbpdjlcndj ghjljdjkmcndbz b djkjrybcns[ vfnthbfkjd dlfyyjv htubjyt. Cjukfcyj htpekmnfnfv ytrjnjhs[ bcckt-ljdfybq ytufnbdyst gjcktlcndbz d htubjyt ghjzdzncz dnjv> xnj ghb ytrjnjhs[ cwtyfhbz[ bpvtytybz rkbvfnfevtymibncz ghjbpdjlcndj gitybws d Rfpf[cnfyt b Gfrbc-nfyt. Jlyfrj nfrb[ bccktljdfybq ckbirjv vfkj lkz njuj>xnj,s cltkfnm yflt;yst dsdjls jnyjcbntkmyj ctkmcrjuj[jpzqcndf dj dctv htubjyt d wtkjv. Vyjubt bp dfhbfynjd>hfphf,jnfyyst lkz ,jhm,s c e;t ceotcnde/obvb ghj,-ktvfvb> dytcen cdjq drkfl d evtymitybt ghtlgjkfuftvs[gjcktlcndbq bpvtytybz rkbvfnf. Ghjbpdjlcndj ghjlj-djkmcndbz b djkjrybcns[ vfnthbfkjd> crjywtynhbhjdfyyjtyf ,jktt hfwbjyfkmyj eghfdkztvs[ ptvkz[> vj;tnj,tcgtxbnm ,jkmie/ yflt;yjcnm d ghjbpdjlcndt ghjlj-djkmcndbz b evtymibnm hfpheibntkmyst gjcktlcndbz'rcnhtvfkmys[ rkbvfnbxtcrb[ zdktybq. D cnhfyf[ ,sd-ituj Cjdtncrjuj Cj/pf d yfcnjzott dhtvz ghjbc[jlznrhegyst 'rjyjvbxtcrbt bpvtytybz> d xfcnyjcnb d cbcntvf[dtltybz ctkmcrjuj [jpzqcndf b eghfdktybz bv. "njn gt-ht[jl r lheubv ajhvfv [jpzqcndjdfybz> dthjznyj>j,tcgtxbn djpvj;yjcnb lkz bpvtytybz nbgjd ctkmcrj-[jpzqcndtyys[ rekmneh> jceotcndktybz ,jktt 'aatrnbdyjqbhhbufwbb b htfkbpfwbb df;ys[ dfhbfynjd ≤dsbuhsi-dsbuhsi≥ lkz cj[hfytybz htcehcjd> xnj gjpdjkbn ghj-nbdjcnjznm ghjuyjpbhetvsv djpltqcndbzv bpvtytybz rkb-vfnf.

Pljhjdmt xtkjdtrf. D htpekmnfnt bpvtytybq d rkbvfnt>dthjznyj> djphfcnen ntgkjdst yfuheprb> ytufnbdyj dkbz-/obt yf ehjdyb rjvajhnf lkz xtkjdtrf> b ,jktt frnbdyjyfxyen hfcghjcnhfyznmcz nhfycvbccbdyst ,jktpyb. Evtym-itybt pfgfcjd djls b ghjbpdjlbvjuj ghjljdjkmcndbzjrf;tn rjcdtyyjt dkbzybt yf pljhjdmt xtkjdtrf.

Dsdjls. D 'njv pfceikbdjv htubjyt ptvyjuj ifhf djlfzdkztncz df;ysv juhfybxbdf/obv afrnjhjv lkz'rjcbcntv> ghjbpdjlcndf ghjljdjkmcndbz b djkjrybcns[vfnthbfkjd> gjctktybq xtkjdtrf b pljhjdmz xtkjdtrf. Bp-vtytybt rkbvfnf> cjukfcyj ghjuyjpfv> ghbdtltn rbpvtytyb/ ublhjkjubxtcrjuj wbrkf b dhzl kb ecnhfybn ntjuhfybxtybz> rjnjhst lfyysq htubjy e;t bcgsnsdftn jnytljcnfnrf djls. Bpvtytybt rkbvfnf b ltzntkmyjcnm xtkj-dtrf vjuen tot ,jkmit gjdkbznm yf ehjdyb Rfcgbqcrjujb Fhfkmcrjuj vjhtq> xnj ytufnbdyj crf;tncz yf cdzpfyys[c ybvb 'rjcbcntvf[> ctkmcrjv [jpzqcndt b pljhjdmtxtkjdtrf d ghbktuf/ob[ hfqjyf[. Ceotcnde/n dfhbfyns≤dsbuhsi-dsbuhsi≥> rjnjhst j,tcgtxbdf/n gjntywbfkm-ye/ djpvj;yjcnm lkz evtymitybz ceotcnde/ob[ yfuhepjryf htcehcs b ,kfujcjcnjzybt xtkjdtrf d lfyyjv htubjyt brjnjhst jlyjdhtvtyyj j,tcgtxbdf/n gjntywbfkmye/ djp-vj;yjcnm lkz evtymitybz b[ ezpdbvjcnb yf ckexfq bpvt-ytybz rkbvfnf.

6.4 Fdcnhfkbqcrj-Fpbfncrbq htubjy

Fdcnhfkbqcrj-Fpbfncrbq htubjy drk/xftn Fdcnhfkb/>Yjde/ Ptkfylb/ b yf[jlzobtcz hzljv c ybvb jcnhjdf."njn htubjy ghjcnbhftncz jn nhjgbrjd lj chtlyb[ ibhjnb d ytv ghtlcnfdktys cfvst hfpyst dbls rkbvfnf b'rjcbcntv> yfxbyfz jn dyenhtyyb[ gecnsym b rjyxfzujhysvb nhjgbxtcrbvb ktcfvb. Yf rkbvfn cbkmyj dkbztnjrhe;f/obq jrtfy b zdktybt "YCJ.

"rjcbcntvs. Ytrjnjhst bp 'rjcbcntv lfyyjuj htubjyfghtlcnfdkz/ncz jxtym ezpdbvsvb r djpltqcndbzv bpvtytybzrkbvfnf> gj vtymitq vtht d ljkujchjxyjq gthcgtrnbdt>gjcrjkmre d ,eleotv dtcmvf dthjznys bpvtytybz d gjxdf[>hfcnbntkmyjcnb b 'rjcbcntvf[> f nfr;t edtkbxtybt xbckfgj;fhjd b vfccjds[ gjzdktybq yfctrjvs[. Vyjubt dblscvjuen> jxtdblyj> ghbcgjcj,bnmcz> jlyfrj d ytrjnjhs[ckexfz[ dtcmvf dthjznyj evtymitybt hfpyjj,hfpbz dbljd.<elen ghjbc[jlbnm bpvtytybz b d kfylifanf[> rjnjhst e;thfpheif/ncz gjl djpltqcndbtv ctkmcrjuj [jpzqcndf bhfpdbnbz ujhjljd. "nb bpvtytybz eceue,zn e;t ceotcn-de/obt ghj,ktvs> nfrbt> rfr ltuhflfwbz ptvtkm> yfkbxbtcjhyzrjd b bydfpbb ctkmcrj[jpzqcndtyys[ dhtlbntktq.Gjcktlcndbz bpvtytybq d htxys[ cnjrf[> xfcnjnt yfdjl-ytybq> yfkbxbb gbnfntkmys[ dtotcnd b jnkj;tybz[ lkzfrdfnbxtcrb[ 'rjcbcntv> ,elen> jxtdblyj> yfb,jktt pyfxb-ntkmysvb d ce[b[ xfcnz[ htubjyf. Ghb,ht;yst 'rjcbcntvsezpdbvs r djpltqcndbzv gjdsitybz ehjdyz vjhz bdjpvj;ys[ bpvtytybq d vtcnys[ vtntjhjkjubxtcrb[ eckj-dbz[. Nhjgbxtcrbt rjhfkkjdst hbas> drk/xfz <jkmijq,fhmthysq hba> dthjznyj> cvjuen ghbcgjcj,bnmcz rgjdsityb/ ehjdyz vjhz b yt jncnfdfnm jn ytuj> jlyfrj b[ezpdbvjcnm ghjzdbncz d j,tcwdtxbdfybb b ub,tkb rjhfkkjddcktlcndbt 'gbpjljd gjdsitybz ntvgthfnehs vjhz b lheub[cnhtccjd. Vths gj cjltqcndb/ flfgnfwbb drk/xf/n%hfwbjyfkbpfwb/ eghfdktybz gfcn,boysvb ptvkzvb&gjcflre hfcntybq dljkm djlys[ gjnjrjd& ghjdtltybt yfex-ys[ bccktljdfybq> vjybnjhbyuf b hfphf,jnre ghjuyjpjd.Frnbdyfz vfybgekzwbz dblfvb> rfr ghfdbkj> dhzl kb ,eltnjceotcndbvf d rhegys[> ghbhjlys[> kbim ckturf rjynhj-kbhetvs[ 'rjcbcntvf[ lfyyjuj htubjyf.

Ublhjkjubz b djlyst htcehcs. D lfyyjv ctrnjht ezpdb-vjcnm ghtlcnfdkztncz gjntywbfkmyj dscjrjq. K/,jtevtymitybt ljcnegys[ pfgfcjd djls> jcj,tyyj d j,ibh-ys[ hfqjyf[ Fdcnhfkbb> gjldth;tyys[ pfce[t> j,jcnhbnrjyrehtywb/ chtlb gjkmpjdfntktq> drk/xfz ctkmcrjt[jpzqcndj b gjllth;re 'rjcbcntv pf,jkjxtyys[ ptvtkm.Ezpdbvs nfr;t b pfgfcs ghtcyjq djls yf ybprjkt;fob[jcnhjdf[. <jktt xfcnst b cbkmyst lj;ltdst jcflrb vjuenedtkbxbnm rjkbxtcndj yfptvys[ djl b yfgjkytybt djlj-[hfybkbo> jlyfrj d 'nj ;t dhtvz jyb vjuen gjdscnm hbcryfdjlytybq> jgjkpytq b 'hjpbq& ghb 'njv yfb,jkmibt ab-yfycjdst gjnthb euhj;f/n ujhjlcrbv hfqjyfv> gjldth-;tyysv yfdjlytybzv. Dthjznyj> cyt;ysq ctpjy cnfytn,jktt rjhjnrbv> cyt;ysq gjrhjd evtymibncz> f ktlybrbYjdjq Ptkfylbb ,elen b lfktt evtymifnmcz. Ytrjnjhst

Gjcktlcndbz bpvtytybz rkbvfnf lkz htubjyjd% jwtyrf ezpdbvjcnb12

dfhbfyns flfgnfwbb e;t hfphf,jnfys> jlyfrj jyb nht,e/n,jkmib[ pfnhfn.

Ghjbpdjlcndj ghjljdjkmcndbz b djkjrybcns[ vfnt-hbfkjd. Ezpdbvjcnm lfyyjuj ctrnjhf ghtlcnfdkztncz yt,jkm-ijq> gj vtymitq vtht d ntxtybt ytcrjkmrb[ cktle/ob[ltcznbktnbq !gjntywbfkmyj dscjrfz xedcndbntkmyjcnm>cjtlbytyyfz c dscjrjq ghbcgjcf,kbdftvjcnm/@. Ctkmcrjt[jpzqcndj d lfyyjv htubjyt zdkztncz kturj flfgnbhe/obvczb> d ytrjnjhs[ ckexfz[> dthjznyj ghjbpjqltn gjdsitybtghjbpdjlcndf. Jlyfrj pltcm vj;tn ghjzdbnmcz ntyltywbz redtkbxtyb/ ezpdbvjcnb d ,jktt ljkujchjxyjq gthcgtrnbdt>jcj,tyyj d ,jktt ntgks[ xfcnz[ Fdcnhfkbb> ult juhfybxtysdjlyst htcehcs b gthdjyfxfkmyjt gjdsitybt ehj;ftdytrjnjhs[ ctkmcrj[jpzqcndtyys[ rekmneh gjplytt cjqltn yfytn gj vtht njuj> rfr dct ,jktt gjkyj ghjzdkz/obtczgjcktlcndbz bpvtytybz rkbvfnf !yfghbvth bpvtytybz dntvgthfnehf[ b fnvjcathys[ jcflrf[@ yfxyen gthtdtibdfnmgjkextyye/ hfytt 'aatrnbdyjcnm jn gjdsitybz cjlth;fybzCO2 d fnvjcatht. Dct 'nb djpltqcndbz ,elen jxtym hfpysvbd hfpkbxys[ hfqjyf[ b lkz hfpkbxys[ ctkmcrj[jpzqcndtyys[rekmneh. Ghjbpjqlen bpvtytybz d ntvgf[ hjcnf b rfxtcndtctkmcrj[jpzqcndtyys[ b gfcn,boys[ rekmneh& gthtvtys dghbtvktvjcnb nt[ bkb bys[ hfqjyjd lkz dshfobdfybzrjyrhtnys[ ctkmcrj[jpzqcndtyys[ rekmneh b> djpvj;yj>djphfcnen ghj,ktvs yfkbxbz cjhyzrjd> dhtlbntktq b,jktpytq. Bpvtytybz d rjkbxtcndt lj;ltds[ jcflrjd jcj-,tyyj jnhfpzncz yf gfcn,boyjv crjnjdjlcndt b jhjiftvjvptvktltkbb. Bpvtytybz d ghjbpdjlcndt ghjljdjkmcndbz dk/,s[ lheub[ xfcnz[ vbhf> rjnjhst ,elen dkbznm yfecnfyjdktybt wty> ,elen bvtnm pyfxbntkmyst 'rjyjvbxtcrbtgjcktlcndbz b lkz lfyyjuj htubjyf. D j,kfcnb ktcyjuj [j-pzqcndf njn afrn> xnj lkz gjkyjuj cjphtdfybz ktcjdytj,[jlbv ghjljk;bntkmysq gthbjl dhtvtyb> jpyfxftnchfdybntkmyj ,jkmie/ djpvj;yjcnm abyfycjds[ gjnthm bp-pf'rcnhtvfkmys[ zdktybq> gj;fhjd bkb k/,juj ,scnhjujvtcnyjuj bpvtytybz rkbvfnbxtcrb[ eckjdbq.

Ghb,ht;yst cbcntvs. Jnltkmyst xfcnb gj,tht;mzhtubjyf b ,scnhj hfpdbdf/obtcz ghb,ht;yst gjctktybz bbyahfcnhernehf jxtym ezpdbvs lkz djpltqcndbz k/,jujedtkbxtybz ghb,ht;ys[ yfdjlytybq b 'hjpbb> cdzpfyys[ cgjdsitybtv ehjdyz vjhz b bpvtytybzvb vtntjhjkjubxtcrb[eckjdbq. Jcj,tyyj ezpdbvsvb zdkz/ncz vtcnyst ghb,ht;-yst b jcnhjdyst j,obys> ghj;bdf/obt yf nthhbnjhbz[ dghjkbdt Njhhtcf b Yjdjptkfylcrb[ nb[jjrtfycrb[ jcnhjdjd.Ceotcndetn vyjuj dfhbfynjd flfgnfwbb> [jnz 'nb vthsytkturj jceotcndbnm yf ybprjkt;fob[ jcnhjdf[. <jkttnjuj> bpvtytybt rkbvfnf b gjdsitybt ehjdyz vjhz> rfrghfdbkj> yt exbnsdf/ncz d ctujlyziyb[ c[tvf[gkfybhjdfybz b eghfdktybz ghb,ht;ysvb pjyfvb.

Gjctktybz xtkjdtrf. D ljgjkytybt r hbcrfv> cdzpfyysv cublhjkjubtq b hfpvtotybtv d ghb,ht;ys[ pjyf[> gjct-ktybz xtkjdtrf vj;yj hfccvfnhbdfnm d jghtltktyyjqcntgtyb ezpdbvsvb> tckb extcnm djpltqcndbz yf rfxtcndjdjple[f> lhtyf;> pf[jhjytybt jn[jljd> lj,sxe gjktpys[

bcrjgftvs[> nhfycgjhn> cnhf[jdjt ltkj b nehbpv. D wt-kjv> gjcktlcndbz 'njuj> dthjznyj> jnyjcbntkmyj ytdtkbrbd chfdytybb c lheubvb 'rjyjvbxtcrbvb dkbzybzvb> jlyfrjjyb vjuen gjnht,jdfnm pyfxbntkmys[ pfnhfn cj cnjhjysrhegys[ jnhfcktq.

Pljhjdmt xtkjdtrf. Ytrjnjhfz cntgtym ezpdbvjcnb jxtdblyf.D yfb,jkmitq cntgtyb hbcre gjldthuf/ncz rjhtyyst;bntkb b yfctktybt> yf[jlzottcz d 'rjyjvbxtcrbyt,kfujghbznyjv gjkj;tybb. J;blftncz> xnj gjdscbnczcvthnyjcnm jn ntgkjds[ yfuhepjr> ,jktt frnbdyj yfxyenhfcghjcnhfyznmcz nhfycvbccbdyst ,jktpyb> nfrbt> rfrkb[jhflrf ltyut> b ,jktpyb> gthtlfdftvst xthtp djle bcnjrb> djphfcntn nfr;t pf,jktdftvjcnm ls[fntkmys[ gentqbp-pf pfuhzpytybz djple[f d ujhjlf[. {jnz 'nb djpltqcndbzb ghtlcnfdkz/ncz yt,jkmibvb gj chfdytyb/ c j,obv,htvtytv gkj[juj cjcnjzybz pljhjdmz k/ltq d wtkjv> jybntv yt vtytt vjuen pyfxbntkmyj gjdkbznm yf yfctktybt bghbdtcnb r ,jkmibv hfc[jlfv.

Dsdjls. Njn afrn> xnj Fdcnhfkbz hfcgjkj;tyf yf chfdyb-ntkmyj ybprb[ ibhjnf[> ltkftn tt jcj,tyyj ezpdbvjq rdjpltqcndzv d njv> xnj rfcftncz tt crelys[ djlys[ ht-cehcjd b ctkmcrj[jpzqcndtyys[ rekmneh> dshfobdftvs[ dntvgthfnehys[ eckjdbz[> ,kbprb[ bkb ghtdsif/ob[jgnbvfkmyst lkz yb[ ntvgthfnehs> d nj dhtvz rfryf[j;ltybt Yjdjq Ptkfylbb d ,jktt [jkjlys[ b dkf;ys[chtlyb[ ibhjnf[ vj;tn jpyfxfnm> xnj lkz tt nthhbnjhbqbpvtytybt rkbvfnf ghbytctn ytrjnjhst dsujls> gjcrjkmred gthcgtrnbdt vj;yj ,eltn dshfobdfnm dsujlystctkmcrj[jpzqcndtyyst rekmnehs b d wtkjv ghjbpdjlcndjctkmcrj[jzqcndtyyjq ghjlerwbb> dthjznyj> djphfcntn.Jlyfrj d j,tb[ cnhfyf[ vj;tn djpybryenm ibhjrbqlbfgfpjy cbnefwbq> ghb rjnjhs[ vj;yj ,eltn ujdjhbnm jchtlytq — dscjrjq cntgtyb ezpdbvjcnb> d xfcnyjcnb% djnyjitybb 'rjcbcntv> ublhjkjubb> ghb,ht;ys[ pjy>gjctktybq xtkjdtrf b pljhjdmz xtkjdtrf.

6.5 Tdhjgf

Tdhjgf ghtlcnfdkztn cj,jq pfgflye/ xfcnm Tdhfpbqcrjujrjynbytynf. Tt djcnjxyst uhfybws ghj[jlzn gj Ehfkmcrjve[ht,ne> htrt Ehfk b xfcnb Rfcgbqcrjuj vjhz. <kbpjcnmjnyjcbntkmyj ntgkjuj ntxtybz Ujkmacnhbv b nbgbxyfz fnvjc-athyfz wbhrekzwbz cgjcj,cnde/n pyfxbntkmyjq ghjcn-hfycndtyyjq b dhtvtyyjq bpvtyxbdjcnb ntvgthfnehs bfnvjcathys[ jcflrjd d 'njv htubjyt. R /ue jn ukfdyjujFkmgbqcrjuj ujhyjuj hfpltkf rkbvfn e;t cnfyjdbncz chtlb-ptvyjvjhcrbv.

"rjcbcntvs. Tcntcndtyyst 'rjcbcntvs> rfr ghfdbkj>hfplhj,ktys> yfheitys b cdzpfys c gkj[bvb gjxdfvb.Nfrjt gjkj;tybt gjdsiftn b[ xedcndbntkmyjcnm r bpvt-ytyb/ rkbvfnf. Chtlbptvyjvjhcrbt b ,jhtfkmyst gfcn-,boyst eujlmz vjuen dbljbpvtybnmcz d jndtn yf bpvtytybzd rjkbxtcndt b ctpjyyjv hfcghtltktybb fnvjcathys[

13Gjcktlcndbz bpvtytybz rkbvfnf lkz htubjyjd% jwtyrf ezpdbvjcnb

jcflrjd. Ctdthyst uhfybws ktcjd Atyyjcrfylbb b ctdthyjqHjccbb> gj dctq dthjznyjcnb> gthtvtcnzncz d htubjysneylhs> xnj ghbdtltn r evtymityb/ nthhbnjhbq neylhs>,jkjn b dtxyjq vthpkjns. Gjl euhjpjq vj;tn jrfpfnmczcfvj ds;bdfybt ytrjnjhs[ dbljd b nbgjd ktcjd d ckexft>tckb ghjuyjpbhetvjt gthtvtotybt rkbvfnbxtcrb[ pjy,eltn ghjbc[jlbnm ,jktt ,scnhsvb ntvgfvb> xtv crjhjcnbvbuhfwbb. Jcj,tyyj ezpdbvsvb jrf;encz 'rjcbcntvs bdbls> yf[jlzobtcz b j,bnf/obt yf djpdsityys[ vtcn-yjcnz[> gjcrjkmre bv vbuhbhjdfnm ,eltn ytrelf. Gjds-itybt ntvgthfnehs> cjghjdj;lftvjt gjyb;tybtv dkf;-yjcnb gjxds> ghbdtltn r pyfxbntkmyjve cjrhfotyb/ ajh-vbhjdfybz njhaf d njhazyybrf[ Atyyjcrfylbb b ctdthfHjccbb. Nfzybt ckjz dtxyjq vthpkjns vj;tn ghbdtcnb rgjyb;tyb/ ehjdyz uheynjds[ djl d ytrjnjhs[ hfqjyf[ br gthtgjkytyb/ nfkjq djljq jpth d lheub[ hfqjyf[> xnj>d cdj/ jxthtlm> dspjdtn bpvtytybz d ceotcnde/ob[ nbgf['rjcbcntv edkf;ytyys[ ptvtkm. {jnz d eckjdbz[ ,jkttntgkjuj rkbvfnf b vj;tn edtkbxbnmcz hfpyjj,hfpbt ghtc-yjdjlys[ dbljd> jcj,tyyj d chtlyb[ b dscjrb[ ibhjnf[> d[jkjlys[ evthtyys[ b ,jhtfkmys[ htubjyf[ gthdjyfxfkmyjvj;tn ghjbpjqnb evtymitybt hfpyjj,hfpbz dbljd."rjcbcntvfv d /;yjq xfcnb Tdhjgs ,eltn> ght;lt dctuj>euhj;fnm evtymitybt rjkbxtcndf fnvjcathys[ jcflrjd b>cdzpfyyfz c 'nbv> dctdjphfcnf/ofz yt[dfnrf djls.Ublhjkjubz b djlyst htcehcs. Yf ,jkmitq xfcnb Tdhjgs dyfitv dtrt yf,k/lf/ncz gjdsitybz ntvgthfnehs>ghtdjc[jlzobt chtlytt ukj,fkmyjt pyfxtybt> f nfr;tedtkbxtybt rjkbxtcndf jcflrjd d ctdthyjq gjkjdbyt b b[evtymitybt d /;yjq gjkjdbyt lfyyjuj htubjyf. Ghjuyjps,eleotuj rkbvfnf> d rjnjhs[ yt exbnsdftncz dkbzybtf'hjpjktq> erfpsdf/n yf nj> xnj rjkbxtcndj fnvjcathys[jcflrjd d dscjrb[ ibhjnf[ Tdhjgs vj;tn edtkbxbnmcz ccfvsvb hfpysvb gjcktlcndbzvb lkz lheub[ xfcntq Tdhjgs.Ceotcnde/ofz d yfcnjzott dhtvz ytjghtltktyyjcnmjnyjcbntkmyj ,eleotuj rjkbxtcndf fnvjcathys[ jcflrjdeceue,kztncz tot ,jkmit ytj,[jlbvjcnm/ extnf dkbzybzf'hjpjktq.

Djpvj;yjt edtkbxtybt yfdjlytybq d ctdthyjq b ctdthj-pfgflyjq Tdhjgt b pfce[b d /;ys[ xfcnz[ rjynbytynfvjuen ytufnbdyj crfpfnmcz yf djljj,tcgtxtybb. Vyjubtpfkbdftvst djljq ptvkb d pfgflyjq Tdhjgt e;t gthtyf-ctktys> f 'nj vtiftn cjplfyb/ 'aatrnbdyjq ljgjk-ybntkmyjq pfobns jn yfdjlytybq. Lkz vyjub[ htr jlyjq bpdf;ytqib[ ghj,ktv zdkztncz pfuhzpytybt. Gjntgktybtrkbvfnf vj;tn ghbdtcnb r e[elityb/ rfxtcndf djls>jcj,tyyj tckb 'njn ghjwtcc ,eltn cjghjdj;lfnmcz evtym-itybtv cnjrjd. Tckb ktnybt gthbjls cnfyen ,jkttntgksvb> edtkbxbncz cghjc yf djle& [jnz gjdsityysq cghjcyf jhjitybt ,eltn> gj vtymitq vtht> xfcnbxyj rjvgty-cbhjdfnmcz lkz vyjub[ ctkmcrj[jpzqcndtyys[ rekmnehgjdsitybtv 'aatrnbdyjcnb bcgjkmpjdfybz djls> cdzpfyysvc j,jufotybtv CO2.

Ghtlgjkfuftvst bpvtytybz d rjkbxtcndt cytuf b kmlf jrf-;en cbkmyjt dkbzybt yf tdhjgtqcrbt gjnjrb b htrb. R

2100 u. vj;tn bcxtpyenm lj 95 % vfccs fkmgbqcrb[ ktl-ybrjd> xnj ,eltn bvtnm yt,kfujghbznyst gjcktlcndbz lkzdjlyjuj ht;bvf cnjrjd> ytufnbdyj crfpsdfzcm> yfghbvth% yfdjljj,tcgtxtybb d ktnybq gthbjl> yf celj[jlcndt b yfdshf,jnrt ublhj'ktrnhj'ythubb. Rhjvt njuj> d hzlt hfqj-yjd 'nj jnhbwfntkmyj crf;tncz nfr;t yf pbvytv nehbpvt.

Eghfdktybt djlysvb htcehcfvb xfcnbxyj jghtltkztnczpfrjyjlfntkmcndjv b cjnhelybxtcndjv vt;le ghfdbntkm-cndtyysvb jhufyfvb rfr dyenhb cnhfy> nfr b yf vt;le-yfhjlyjv ehjdyt. Bpvtytybt cghjcf yf djle b tt ghtlkj-;tybz gjnht,e/n gthtcvjnhf ceotcnde/ob[ ghfdjds[cjukfitybq b ljujdjhtyyjcntq j cjnhelybxtcndt.

Ghjbpdjlcndj ghjljdjkmcndbz b djkjrybcns[ vfnt-hbfkjd. Ghb gjntgktybb rkbvfnf hbcrb pfvjhjprjd evtym-ifncz> ,kfujlfhz xtve jpbvst pthyjdst b lheubt jpbvstctkmcrj[jpzqcndtyyst rekmnehs cvjuen hfcghjcnhfybnmcz yfnfrbt nthhbnjhbb> rfr /;yfz xfcnm Atyyjcrfylbb bpfgflyfz xfcnm Hjccbb. Gjntywbfkmyst ehj;fb jpbvs[rekmneh> rfr j;blftncz> djphfcnen> jcj,tyyj d wtynhfkmyjqb /;yjq xfcnz[ Tdhjgs ghb ghtlgjkj;tybb j njv> xnj yt,eltn juhfybxtybq yb d cvsckt rjkbxtcndf fnvjcathys[jcflrjd> yb d cvsckt jhjitybz> b xnj 'aatrnbdyjcnm bc-gjkmpjdfybz djls gjdscbncz c gjdsitybtv cjlth;fybz CO2d jrhe;f/otq fnvjcatht. Gjdsitybt ntvgthfneh d dtctyybqgthbjl hfcibhbn pjys> gjl[jlzobt lkz dshfobdfybz,jkmibycndf ktnyb[ ctkmcrj[jpzqcndtyys[ rekmneh.Ehj;fb ktnyb[ ctkmcrj[jpzqcndtyys[ rekmneh> dthjznyj>djphfcnen d wtynhfkmyjq b djcnjxyjq xfcnz[ Tdhjgs> [jnz dpfgflyjq xfcnb Tdhjgs djpvj;yj b[ evtymitybt. Evtym-itybt rjkbxtcndf fnvjcathys[ jcflrjd d /;yjq xfcnbTdhjgs ghbdtltn r cyb;tyb/ ehj;ftd ctkmcrj[jpzqcndty-ys[ rekmneh> b jhjitybt cnfytn tot ,jktt pyfxbntkmysvrjyrehtynjv ,snjdjuj b ghjvsiktyyjuj ctrnjhjd d cathtdjljgjkmpjdfybz. Yfhzle c gjntywbfkmysvb bpvtytybzvbehj;ftd ctkmcrj[jpzqcndtys[ rekmneh> df;ysvb afr-njhfvb> rjnjhst cktletn exbnsdfnm ghb jghtltktybb'rjyjvbxtcrjuj dkbzybz bpvtytybz rkbvfnf yf ctkmcrj-[jpzqcndtyysq ctrnjh> zdkz/ncz% flfgnfwbz athvthcrb[[jpzqcnd> ctkmcrj[jpzqcndtyyfz gjkbnbrf b cjcnjzybt vbhj-ds[ hsyrjd.

Ghb,ht;yst cbcntvs. Ghb,ht;yst pjys bvt/n ,jkmijtpyfxtybt b c 'rjkjubxtcrjq> b c 'rjyjvbxtcrjq njxtr pht-ybz. Yfkbxbt gjctktybq b 'rjyjvbxtcrfz ltzntkmyjcnmcybpbkb ;bpytcnjqrjcnm b ghbcgjcf,kbdftvjcnm ghb,ht;-ys[ cbcntv r bpvtyxbdjcnb b bpvtytyb/ rkbvfnf nfr ;t>rfr b r gjdsityb/ ehjdyz vjhz. Ytrjnjhst ghb,ht;ysthfqjys e;t yf[jlzncz yb;t chtlytuj ehjdyz vjhz> f vyjubtlheubt ezpdbvs lkz injhvjds[ yfujyjd. D rfxtcndt nthhb-njhbq> d yfb,jkmitq cntgtyb gjldth;tyys[ hbcre> vj;yjyfpdfnm ,thtujdst kbybb Ujkkfylbb> Uthvfybb> Erhfbys bHjccbb> ytrjnjhst ltkmns d Chtlbptvyjvjhmt b ,fknbqcrbtghb,ht;yst pjys. Injhvjdst yfujys> bpvtytybz d rjkb-xtcndt fnvjcathys[ jcflrjd> bpvtytybz d crjhjcnb byfghfdktybz[ dtnhjd> — dct 'nj lj,fdkztn ,tcgjrjqcndf

Gjcktlcndbz bpvtytybz rkbvfnf lkz htubjyjd% jwtyrf ezpdbvjcnb14

jhufyfv> gkfybhe/obv hfpdbnbt ghb,ht;ys[ pjy. D wtkjv>jcyjdyst cjwbfkmyj-'rjyjvbxtcrbt gjcktlcndbz vj;yjghtljndhfnbnm ghb jnyjcbntkmyj ybprb[ rfgbnfkjdkj-;tybz[. Jlyfrj 'nj yt jnyjcbncz yb r hzle ybprjkt;fob[ujhjlcrb[ hfqjyjd> gjldth;tyys[ injhvjdsv yfujyfv> yb r'rjcbcntvfv> jcj,tyyj yf ghb,ht;ys[ pf,jkjxtyys[ptvkz[> rjnjhsv vj;tn ,snm lf;t yfytcty tot ,jkmibqeoth, ghb htfkbpfwbb pfobnys[ vth.

Gjctktybz xtkjdtrf. Bpvtybncz cghjc yf djle lkz j[kf;-ltybz b cjjndtncndtyyj tt ghtlkj;tybt. Gjnht,yjcnb d'ythubb vjuen djphfcnb d ktnybq gthbjl !lkz j[kf;ltybz@b evtymifncz d pbvybq gthbjl !lkz yfuhtdfybz& cjjndtn-cndtyyj cvtcnbncz gbr cghjcf yf 'ythub/. Byahfcnhernehf>plfybz b ujhjlcrbt cjjhe;tybz> ghtlyfpyfxtyyst lkz ,jktt[jkjlyjuj rkbvfnf> ytj,[jlbvj ,eltn ghbcgjcj,bnm rgjntgktyb/ rkbvfnf> d xfcnyjcnb r ntgkjdsv djkyfv> c ntvxnj,s jyb vjukb gj-ght;ytve dsgjkyznm cdjb aeyrwbb. Dnt[ hfqjyf[> ult edtkbxbncz rjkbxtcndj fnvjcathys[ jcfl-rjd bkb jyb cnfyen ,jktt byntycbdysvb> djpybryen ljgjk-ybntkmyst hbcrb> cdzpfyyst c jgjkpyzvb b gfdjlrfvb yfhtrf[.

Pljhjdmt xtkjdtrf. Ghb ukj,fkmyjv gjntgktybb djphfcntncvthnyjcnm> cdzpfyyfz c djpltqcndbtv ntgkf& ghb 'njv gjkj-;tybt vj;tn tot ,jktt eceue,bnmcz e[elitybtv rfxtcndfdjple[f d ujhjlf[. Cvthnyjcnm ;t jn djpltqcndbz [jkjlfgjybpbncz. <jktt ibhjrj yfxyen hfcghjcnhfyznmcz nhfyc-vbccbdyst ,jktpyb. Jlyfrj vths d j,kfcnb plhfdjj[hfyt-ybz vjuen pyfxbntkmyj evtymibnm nfrbt gjcktlcndbz.

Dsdjls. Ytcvjnhz yf nj xnj dj vyjub[ vtcnf[ d Tdhjgtcjplfys chfdybntkmyj [jhjibt djpvj;yjcnb lkz flfgnfwbbd eghfdkztvs[ cbcntvf[> dct ;t cktletn ghtldbltnmpyfxbntkmyst gjcktlcndbz bpvtytybz rkbvfnf. Jcyjdystdjpltqcndbz ghjzdzncz> dthjznyj> d dblt bpvtytybq d xfcnjnt'rcnhtvfkmys[ zdktybq b fnvjcathys[ jcflrjd> d htpekmnfntxtuj exfcnzncz pfce[b d jlyb[ hfqjyf[ b gfdjlrb yf htrf[d lheub[ hfqjyf[. Djpltqcndbz bpvtytybz rkbvfnf crf-;encz ght;lt dctuj d ctkmcrjv [jpzqcndt b d lheub[> pfdb-czob[ jn bcgjkmpjdfybz djls dblf[ ltzntkmyjcnb. Cjukfcyjghjuyjpfv> rhegyst bpvtytybz ghtnthgzn hfqjys ,jhtfkm-ys[ ktcjd b dtxyjq vthpkjns. Jcj,tyyj ezpdbvsvb ghtl-cnfdkz/ncz 'rjcbcntvs> xnj cdzpfyj c ghjuyjpbhetvsvbntvgfvb bpvtytybz rkbvfnf b pfnhelytyyjcnm/ vbuhfwbb.

6.6 Kfnbycrfz Fvthbrf

Kfnbycrfz Fvthbrf drk/xftn d ct,z dct rjynbytynfkmystcnhfys lde[ Fvthbr> yfxbyfz jn Vtrcbrb b rjyxfz Xbkb bFhutynbyjq> f nfr;t ghbktuf/obt vjhz. "njn htubjyjxtym ytjlyjhjlty d cvsckt rkbvfnf> 'rjcbcntv> hfcght-ltktybz yfctktybz b rekmnehys[ nhflbwbq. Ytcrjkmrjcnhfy Kfnbycrjq Fvthbrb> jcj,tyyj cnhfys Wtynhfkmyj-fvthbrfycrjuj gthtitqrf — "rdfljh> <hfpbkbz> Gthe><jkbdbz> Xbkb b Fhutynbyf — pyfxbntkmyj cnhflf/n jn yt,-

kfujghbznys[ cjwbfkmyj-'rjyjvbxtcrb[ gjcktlcndbq ctpjy-yjq — vt;ujljdjq bpvtyxbdjcnb rkbvfnf> jcj,tyyj jn zdkt-ybz "YCJ. <jkmifz xfcnm ghjbpdjlcndf jcyjdfyf yf rheg-ys[ tcntcndtyys[ 'rjcbcntvf[ htubjyf> b dkbzybt ctujl-yziytq bpvtyxbdjcnb rkbvfnf yf ghbhjlyst htcehcs lftnjcyjdfybz cxbnfnm> xnj djpltqcndbz ghjuyjpbhetvs[ bpvt-ytybq d rkbvfnt vjuen ,snm yfcnjkmrj pyfxbntkmysvb> xnjb[ cktletn exbnsdfnm ghb hfphf,jnrt gkfyjd yf yfwbj-yfkmyjv b htubjyfkmyjv ehjdyz[. Ptvktgjkmpjdfybt zdkz-tncz jlyjq bp nt[ jcyjdys[ cbk> rjnjhst pfcnfdkz/n'rjcbcntvs bpvtyznmcz e;t ctujlyz& ghb 'njv ckj;ysvbgenzvb ghjbc[jlbn b dpfbvjltqcndbt c rkbvfnjv. "njnafrnjh ltkftn jxtym nhelyjq pflfxe jghtltktybz j,ob[cnherneh ezpdbvjcnb r djpltqcndbzv bpvtytybz rkbvfnf.

"rjcbcntvs. Ghtlgjkfuftncz> xnj ghjuyjpbhetvst bpvtyt-ybz d rkbvfnt yt,kfujghbznyj crf;encz yf ,jkmib[ktcys[ b gfcn,boys[ nthhbnjhbz[& ghb 'njv xhtpdsxfqyjezpdbvsvb ghtlcnfdkz/ncz ujhyst 'rjcbcntvs b gtht[jlystpjys vt;le nbgfvb hfcnbntkmyjcnb. Bpvtytybt rkbvfnfvj;tn gjcke;bnm ljgjkybntkmyjq yfuheprjq r yt,kfuj-ghbznysv gjcktlcndbzv ytghthsdyjq dshe,rb ktcjd dl;eyukz[ Fvfpjyrb. Nfrjt djpltqcndbt vj;tn ghbdtcnb rgjnthzv d ,bjhfpyjj,hfpbb> evtymityb/ lj;ltds[ jcflrjdb cnjrjd dyenhb b pf ghtltkfvb ,fcctqyf Fvfpjyrb!htwbhrekzwbz evtymityyjuj rjkbxtcndf jcflrjd xthtp'dfgjnhfycgbhfwb/@ b gjdkbznm yf ukj,fkmysq rheujdjhjneukthjlf.Ublhjkjubz b djlyst htcehcs. Bpvtytybt rkbvfnf vj;tn dpyfxbntkmyjq cntgtyb gjdkbznm yf ublhjkjubxtcrbq wbrk>bpvtyzz byntycbdyjcnm b dhtvtyy∆t b ghjcnhfycndtyyjthfcghtltktybt fnvjcathys[ jcflrjd> yfptvyst cnjrb bgjgjkytybt uheynjds[ djl> xnj> d cdj/ jxthtlm> jrf;tnhfpkbxyst djpltqcndbz yf tcntcndtyyst 'rjcbcntvs bltzntkmyjcnm xtkjdtrf. Pfceikbdst b gjkepfceikbdsthfqjys zdkz/ncz jcj,j ezpdbvsvb ghb bpvtytybz[ dyfkbxbb djls. Dshf,jnrf ublhj'ktrnhj'ythubb b ghjbp-djlcndj pthyjds[ b ;bdjnyjdjlxtcrjq ghjlerwbb ,elenjcj,tyyj ezpdbvs ghb bpvtytybz[ djljj,tcgtxtybz&jcj,tyyj 'nj rfcftncz Rjcnf-Hbrb> Gfyfvs b gjlyj;bz Fyl>f nfr;t ghbktuf/ob[ hfqjyjd Xbkb b pfgflyjq Fhutynbysult-nj vt;le 25° b 37° /. i. Gjcktlcndbz lkz cjcnjzybzdjlys[ htcehcjd vjuen ,snm nfrjds> xnj djpybryen rjya-kbrns vt;le gjkmpjdfntkzvb> htubjyfvb b cnhfyfvb.

Ghjbpdjlcndj ghjljdjkmcndbz b djkjrybcns[ vfnt-hbfkjd. Cjukfcyj ghjuyjpfv> lf;t gjckt extnf gjkj;b-ntkmyjuj dkbzybz gjdsityyjuj cjlth;fybz CO2 yf hjcnctkmcrj[jpzqcndtyys[ rekmneh b chtlyb[ ehjdytq flfgnfwbbd vfcinf,t athvthcrb[ [jpzqcnd> ghjbpjqltn j,ott cyb;t-ybt ctkmcrj[jpzqcndtyyjuj ghjbpdjlcndf d njv> xnj rfcftnczytcrjkmrb[ jcyjdys[ ctkmcrj[jpzqcndtyys[ rekmneh dVtrcbrt> cnhfyf[ Wtynhfkmyjfvthbrfycrjuj gthtitqrf><hfpbkbb> Xbkb> Fhutynbyt b Eheudft. D ljgjkytybt r 'nj-ve j;blftncz b cyb;tybt ghjbpdjlcndf ;bdjnyjdjlxtcrjqghjlerwbb d ckexft> tckb gfcn,boyst eujlmz d evthtyyjvgjzct joenzn yf ct,t pyfxbntkmye/ yt[dfnre djls. "rcnht-

15Gjcktlcndbz bpvtytybz rkbvfnf lkz htubjyjd% jwtyrf ezpdbvjcnb

vfkmyst zdktybz !yfghbvth% yfdjlytybz> pfce[b> pfvjhjprb>ehfufys@ d gjntywbfkt ytufnbdyj gjdkbz/n yf gfcn,boysteujlmz b ghjbpdjlcndj ctkmcrj[jpzqcndtyyjq ghjlerwbb!yfghbvth ehj;fb ,fyfyjd d Wtynhfkmyjq Fvthbrt@.:bpytj,tcgtxtybt rjhtyys[ yfhjljd> nfrb[> rfr vyjubtrjhtyyst ;bntkb Fylcrb[ ujh> ,eltn gjcnfdktyj gjleuhjpe> tckb evtymibncz ghjlernbdyjcnm bkb cjrhfnznczgkjoflb gfcn,boys[ eujlbq b nhflbwbjyys[ ctkmcrj-[jpzqcndtyys[ rekmneh.

Ghb,ht;yst cbcntvs. Gjnthb ghb,ht;ys[ ptvtkm b,bjhfpyjj,hfpbz !drk/xfz% rjhfkkjdst hbas> vfyuhjdst'rjcbcntvs> pf,jkjxtyyst ptvkb d 'cnefhbz[ b vjhcrb[vktrjgbnf/ob[ b gnbw@> gjdht;ltybt byahfcnherneh bghjybryjdtybt cjktyjq djls d htpekmnfnt gjdsitybz ehjdyzvjhz vjuen yf,k/lfnmcz yf ybprjkt;fob[ gj,tht;mz[ b d'cnefhbz[ d nfrb[ cnhfyf[> rfr cnhfys Wtynhfkmyj-fvthbrfycrjuj gthtitqrf> Dtytce'kf> Fhutynbyf b Eheudfq.Gjdsitybt ehjdyz vjhz> rjnjhjt vj;tn ,kjrbhjdfnm cnjrntreob[ gj hfdybyfv b dgflf/ob[ d jrtfy htr> gjdscbnhbcr yfdjlytybq d b[ ,fcctqyf[ !yfghbvth d gfvgfcf[Fhutynbys@.

Gjctktybz xtkjdtrf. Bpvtytybt rkbvfnf jrf;tn wtksqhzl ghzvs[ b rjcdtyys[ djpltqcndbq yf ,kfujcjcnjzybt>pljhjdmt b ,tpjgfcyjcnm ;bntktq Kfnbycrjq Fvthbrb.Ghzvst djpltqcndbz> cdzpfyyst c gjdsitybtv ehjdyz vjhz>e[elitybtv gjujlys[ eckjdbq b djpybryjdtybtv 'rcnht-vfkmys[ rkbvfnbxtcrb[ zdktybq !yfghbvth% yfdjlytybq>kbdytds[ gfdjlrjd> ehfufyjd> jgjkpytq b yfcnegktybt dyt-pfgys[ [jkjljd bkb ;fhs@ nfr ;t> rfr b rjcdtyyst djpltq-cndbz yf nfrbt ctrnjhf> rfr djljj,tcgtxtybt> ghjlj-djkmcndtyyjt j,tcgtxtybt> nhfycgjhn> hfcghtltktybt 'yth-ubb b cfybnfhyjt j,cke;bdfybt> vjuen ,snm ecbktysghjuyjpbhetvsv bpvtytybtv rkbvfnf. Jcj,j ezpdbvsvbuheggfvb yfctktybz ,elen ;bntkb ,bljydbktq yf nthhb-njhbz[ djrheu ,jkmib[ ujhjljd b jcj,tyyj nt[ gjctktybq>rjnjhst yf[jlzncz d gjldth;tyys[ yfdjlytybzv hfqjyf[bkb yf ytghjxys[ crkjyf[ ujh b [jkvjd.

Pljhjdmt xtkjdtrf. Ghjuyjpbhetvst bpvtytybz d rkbvfntvjuen edtkbxbnm vfcinf,s b ,tp njuj cthmtpys[ ghj,ktv[hjybxtcrjuj ytljtlfybz b pf,jktdftvjcnb ytrjnjhjq xfcnbyfctktybz cnhfy Kfnbycrjq Fvthbrb. D njv> xnj rfcftnczutjuhfabxtcrjuj hfcghtltktybz nhfycvbccbdys[ ,jktpytq!yfghbvth% vfkzhbb> kb[jhflrb ltyut> ,jktpyb Ifufcf@ bbyatrwbjyys[ ,jktpytq !yfghbvth [jkths@> gjdsitybtntvgthfnehs b edtkbxtybt rjkbxtcndf fnvjcathys[ jcflrjdghbdtlen r b[ hfcghjcnhfytyb/ d /;yjv yfghfdktybb b yf,jktt dscjrbt ehjdyb. Pfuhzpytybt b ,jkmijt cjlth;fybtjpjyf e gjdth[yjcnb ptvkb> ecbktyyst gjdsitybtvghbptvyjq ntvgthfnehs> jrf;en d gthcgtrnbdt ytufnbdyjtdjpltqcndbt yf pljhjdmt b ,kfujcjcnjzybt xtkjdtrf>jcj,tyyj d ujhjlcrb[ hfqjyf[.

Dsdjls. Dctdjphfcnf/ott e[elitybt cjcnjzybz jrhe;f-/otq chtls !yfghbvth% bpvtytybz d pfgfcf[ djls> gjnthb

ctkmcrj[jpzqcndtyys[ ptvtkm> pfnjgktybt ghb,ht;yjq pjys>,thtujd htr b hfdybyys[ nthhbnjhbq@> cdzpfyyjt c bpvty-xbdjcnm/ rkbvfnf> bpvtytybtv rkbvfnf b ghfrnbrjq ptvkt-gjkmpjdfybz> eceue,bn cjwbfkmyj-'rjyjvbxtcrbt ghj,ktvsb ghj,ktvs plhfdjj[hfytybz> ,eltn cnbvekbhjdfnm vbuhf-wb/ yfctktybz ctkmcrb[ b ghb,ht;ys[ hfqjyjd b ecbkbnrjyakbrns yf yfwbjyfkmyjv b vt;leyfhjlyjv ehjdyz[.

6.7 Ctdthyfz Fvthbrf

D 'njn htubjy d[jlzn Rfyflf b Cjtlbytyyst InfnsFvthbrb r /ue jn Ctdthyjuj gjkzhyjuj rheuf. Dyenhb'njuj htubjyf ezpdbvjcnm lkz djpltqcndbq bpvtytybzrkbvfnf b cfvb 'nb djpltqcndbz ,elen dtcmvf hfpkbxysvbd hfpys[ ctrnjhf[ b d hfpys[ ce,htubjyf[. "njn afrnaf;yj gjybvfnm ghb jwtyrt gjntywbfkmys[ gjcktlcndbqbpvtytybz rkbvfnf d Ctdthyjq Fvthbrt nfr ;t> rfr b ghbajhvekbhjdfybb b jceotcndktybb htfkmys[ cnhfntubqhtfubhjdfybz.

"rjcbcntvs. <jkmibycndj 'rjcbcntv kb,j d chtlytq>kb,j d dscjrjq cntgtyb xedcndbntkmys r bpvtytybzv drkbvfnt. Djpltqcndbz> dthjznyj> ghbdtlen rfr rgjpbnbdysv> nfr b r ytufnbdysv gjcktlcndbzv. D rfxtcndtgjntywbfkmyj djpvj;ys[ gjcktlcndbq vj;yj yfpdfnmgthtvtotybt ktcjd b lheub[ nbgjd hfcnbntkmyjcnb dctdthyjv yfghfdktybb> xnj ghbdtltn r evtymityb/,bjhfpyjj,hfpbz dcktlcndbt bpvtytybz vtcn j,bnfybzdbljd b r evtymityb/ j,(tvjd hsyjxys[ b ythsyjxys[njdfhjd b eckeu> rjnjhst jyb j,tcgtxbdf/n& evtymitybtgkjnyjcnb ktcjd b cjrhfotybt nthhbnjhbq> rjnjhst jybpfybvf/n> d ytrjnjhs[ ce,htubjyf[> yj ghb 'njv gjkj-;bntkmyst bpvtytybz d lheub[ ce,htubjyf[& edtkbxtybtxfcnjns b vfcinf,jd ktcys[ gj;fhjd& hfcghjcnhfytybtdbljd> [fhfrnthys[ lkz pfceikbds[ pjy> d hfqjys,jkmib[ ,fcctqyjd& dscs[fybt pf,jkjxtyys[ ptvtkm dghthbz[> rjnjhst d yfcnjzott dhtvz gjllth;bdf/n ,jktt50 % dctuj cnjrf djls d Ctdthyjq Fvthbrt> b bpvtytybzd hfcghtltktybb vtcn j,bnfybz hfpkbxys[ dbljd hs,>;bdeob[ d [jkjlyjq> j[kf;ltyyjq bkb ntgkjq djlt.Ghbvtytybt ghfrnbrb eghfdktybz lkz evtymitybzgjntywbfkmyjuj eoth,f zdkztncz> gj dctq dthjznyjcnb>ybprjq d njv> xnj rfcftncz 'rjcbcntv> rjnjhst b dyfcnjzott dhtvz ghfrnbxtcrb yt eghfdkz/ncz.

Ublhjkjubz b djlyst htcehcs. Rjkbxtcndj b rfxtcndj djlsjcj,tyyj xedcndbntkmys r bpvtytyb/ rkbvfnf. Gjntywb-fkmyst gjcktlcndbz drk/xf/n edtkbxtybt cnjrf d pbvybq bdtctyybq gthbjls b evtymitybt dkf;yjcnb gjxds b cnjrf dktnybq gthbjl. Jcj,tyyj ezpdbvsvb zdkz/ncz Dtkbrbthfdybys b hfqjys ghthbq. Ghjuyjpbhetvjt edtkbxtybt xfc-njns dsgfltybz kbdytds[ lj;ltq b cbkmys[ yfdjlytybqvj;tn nfr;t cjghjdj;lfnmcz edtkbxtybtv ghjljk;bntkm-yjcnb ce[b[ gthbjljd vt;le lj;lzvb> f nfr;t edtkbxtybtvxfcnjns b#bkb byntycbdyjcnb pfce[ d ytrjnjhs[ xfcnz[Ctdthyjq Fvthbrb. Ghb 'njv vj;tn gjcnhflfnm b

Gjcktlcndbz bpvtytybz rkbvfnf lkz htubjyjd% jwtyrf ezpdbvjcnb16

e[elibnmcz rfxtcndj djls nfv> ult evtymifncz vbybvfkmystcnjrb htr. Djpvj;yjcnb lkz flfgnfwbb ghb 'njv dtcmvfibhjrb> jlyfrj pfnhfns yf b[ htfkbpfwb/ b djpvj;ystghtgzncndbz vjuen gjcke;bnm juhfybxbdf/obv afrnjhjv.

Ghjbpdjlcndj ghjljdjkmcndbz b djkjrybcns[ vfnt-hbfkjd. Ghjlernbdyjcnm htcehcjd> yf jcyjdt rjnjhs[ghjbpdjlzn ghjljdjkmcndbt b djkjrybcnst vfnthbfks dCtdthyjq Fvthbrt> zdkztncz xedcndbntkmyjq d chtlytqbkb dscjrjq cntgtyb r bpvtytyb/ rkbvfnf. Jlyfrj d,jkmibycndt bccktljdfybq yt hfccvfnhbdf/ncz d gjkyjvvfcinf,t gjcktlcndbz gjntywbfkmys[ bpvtytybq d bpvty-xbdjcnb rkbvfnf> yfkbxbb djls> yfuhepjr jn hfcghj-cnhfytybz ctkmcrj[jpzqcndtyys[ dhtlbntktq> ,jktpytq bgj;fhjd> bkb b[ dpfbvjltqcndbq c lheubvb> e;tceotcnde/obvb yfuheprfvb. Jwtyrb> gjkextyyst d hfv-rf[ cwtyfhbtd ,jktt ntgkjuj rkbvfnf !gjdsitybtntvgthfnehs yf 4-5 °C d Ctdthyjq Fvthbrt@> erfpsdf/nyf djpvj;yjcnm djpybryjdtybz yt,kfujghbznys[ gjcktl-cndbq d djcnjxyjv> /uj-djcnjxyjv htubjyf[ b ≤rere-hepyjv gjzct≥ b ,kfujghbznys[ gjcktlcndbq — yfhfdybyf[ ctdthyjq xfcnb b d pfgflys[ hfqjyf[. Cjukfcyjjwtyrfv> ,jktt evthtyyjt gjntgktybt ghbdtltn rgjkj;bntkmysv gjcktlcndbzv lkz ytrjnjhs[ dshfob-dftvs[ d ntgksq ctpjy ctkmcrj[jpzqcndtyys[ rekmneh.Ezpdbvjcnm rjvvthxtcrjuj ghjbpdjlcndf ktcyjq ghjlerwbbjcnftncz gjl djghjcjv> jlyfrj jyf> dthjznyj> ,eltnvtymit> xtv ezpdbvjcnm yt cnjkm frnbdyj eghfdkztvs[cbcntv> dcktlcndbt bpvtytybz nt[yjkjubb b yfkbxbzhfpkbxys[ dfhbfynjd eghfdktybz. Ezpdbvjcnm ghjbpdjlcndfghjljdjkmcndbz b djkjrybcns[ vfnthbfkjd d CtdthyjqFvthbrt ,eltn> jxtdblyj> yt,jkmijq d rjynbytynfkmyjvvfcinf,t> [jnz d hfpys[ ce,htubjyf[ gjntywbfkmystgjnthb bkb dsujls ,elen hfpkbxysvb. Cgjcj,yjcnm rflfgnfwbb vj;tn ,snm juhfybxtyf ghj,tkfvb dbyajhvfwbb& ghtgzncndbzvb bycnbnewbjyfkmyjuj [fhfr-nthf& dscjrbvb pfnhfnfvb 'rjyjvbxtcrjuj> cjwbfkmyjuj b'rjkjubxtcrjuj [fhfrnthf b crjhjcnm/ bpvtytybz rkbvfnf.

Ghb,ht;yst cbcntvs. Ehjdtym vjhz gjdsifkcz jnyjcb-ntkmyj ceib dljkm ,jkmitq xfcnb gj,tht;mz CtdthyjqFvthbrb b jgecrfkcz d ytrjnjhs[ hfqjyf[ d ntxtybt ns-czxtktnbq. D ntxtybt cktle/otuj cnjktnbz gjdsitybtehjdyz vjhz yf 50 cv dcktlcndbt jlyjuj njkmrj bpvtytybzrkbvfnf vj;tn ghbdtcnb r pfnjgktyb/ jn 8 500 lj19 000 rv2 ce[b[ ptvtkm> hfcibhbnm 100-ktnybt yfvsdysthfdybys ,jktt xtv yf 23 000 rv2> b eybxnj;bnm lj 50 %ghb,ht;ys[ edkf;ytyys[ ptvtkm Ctdthyjq Fvthbrb. Dghjuyjpbhetvs[ bpvtytybz[ ehjdyz vjhz dcktlcndbtjlyjuj njkmrj bpvtytybz rkbvfnf yt exbnsdftncz j,ottbpvtytybt ehjdyz vjhz dcktlcndbt dct[ ghbxby dljkmdjcnjxyjuj gj,tht;mz vjhz b gj,tht;mz pfkbdf dCtdthyjq Fvthbrt. Dj vyjub[ hfqjyf[ edkf;ytyystptvkb b ,thtuf d 'cnefhbz[ vjuen jrfpfnmcz pf;fnsvbvt;le yfcnegf/obv yf ,thtu vjhtv b lfv,fvb bkbpfobnysvb cjjhe;tybzvb> gjcnhjtyysvb lkz pfobnsgjctktybq xtkjdtrf. Hzl vtcnys[ ghfdbntkmcnd e;t htue-

kbhe/n ptvktgjkmpjdfybt nfrbv j,hfpjv> xnj,s lfnmdjpvj;yjcnm ghb,ht;ysv 'rjcbcntvfv vbuhbhjdfnmdyenhm ceib gj vtht gjdsitybz ehjdyz vjhz. Dytcrjkmrb[ hfqjyf[ ghjybryjdtybt cjktyjq vjhcrjq djlsvj;tn gjcnfdbnm gjl euhjpe djljj,tcgtxtybt.

Gjctktybz xtkjdtrf. Ghjuyjpbhetvst bpvtytybz d rkbvfntvjuen jrfpfnm rfr gjpbnbdyst> nfr b ytufnbdyst djpltqcndbzyf ltzntkmyjcnm b jgthfnbdyst hfc[jls yfptvyjuj b djlyjujnhfycgjhnf d Ctdthyjq Fvthbrt. Nfrbt bpvtytybz vjuennfr;t gjdscbnm hbcr lkz cj,cndtyyjcnb> pljhjdmz b ;bpybk/ltq d htpekmnfnt edtkbxtybz cntgtyb gjldth;tyyjcnbghbhjlysv jgfcyjcnzv !yfghbvth% gj;fhfv> jgjkpyzv b'rcnhtvfkmysv vtntjhjkjubxtcrbv zdktybzv@> f nfr;tghbdtcnb> d htpekmnfnt> r gjdsityb/ cghjcf yf 'ythub/ lkzj[kf;ltybz b evtymityb/ cghjcf yf 'ythub/ lkzj,juhtdfybz> xnj d wtkjv lfcn hfpysq ytnnj-'aatrn dhfpkbxys[ utjuhfabxtcrb[ htubjyf[.

Pljhjdmt xtkjdtrf. Rkbvfn vj;tn jrfpfnm cfvst hfp-kbxyst b gjntywbfkmyj yt,kfujghbznyst djpltqcndbz yfpljhjdmt xtkjdtrf ghzvsvb genzvb !nfrbvb> rfr>yfghbvth> ntgkjdst yfuheprb b 'rcnhtvfkmyst vtntjhjkj-ubxtcrbt#rkbvfnbxtcrbt zdktybz@ b rjcdtyysvb genzvb!nfrbvb> yfghbvth> rfr hfcghjcnhfytybt djp,elbntktqnhfycvbccbdys[ b byatrwbjyys[ ,jktpytq> gjldth;ty-yjcnm jrhe;f/otq chtls b hf,jxb[ vtcn njrcbxtcrbvdtotcndfv> yfheitybt ghjbpdjlcndf ghjljdjkmcndbz@. Yfnthhbnjhbz[ d dscjrb[ ibhjnf[ djpltqcndbt yf pljhjdmtxtkjdtrf vj;tn ghjzdbnmcz d bpvtytybb gbnfybz>cdzpfyyjv c gthtvtyfvb d c[tvf[ vbuhfwbb b d yfkbxbbvtcnys[ bcnjxybrjd ghjljdjkmcndbz.Dsdjls. Dpznjt jnltkmyj k/,jt djpltqcndbt bpvtytybzrkbvfnf vj;tn yf[jlbnmcz d hfvrf[ djpvj;yjcntqhtfubhjdfybz rfrjuj-kb,j jlyjuj ce,htubjyf bkb ctrnjhf.Jlyfrj njn afrn> xnj dct jyb vjuen yf,k/lfnmcz jlyjdht-vtyyj> f nfr;t c bpvtytybzvb d rjkbxtcndt yfctktybz> dnt[yjkjubb> d 'rjyjvbrt b lheubvb bpvtytybzvb djrhe;f/otq chtlt b j,otcndt> pfnhelyz/n jwtyre 'nb[djpltqcndbq b ds,jh yflkt;fob[ cnhfntubq htfubhjdfybz.{fhfrnthbcnbrb ce,htubjyjd b ctrnjhjd CtdthyjqFvthbrb lf/n jcyjdfybt cxbnfnm> xnj yb djpltqcndbzbpvtytybz rkbvfnf> yb dfhbfyns htfubhjdfybz yt ,elen djdct[ vtcnf[ jlbyfrjdsvb.Vyjubt cbcntvs Ctdthyjq Fvthbrb d chtlytq bkbdscjrjq cntgtyb xedcndbntkmys r bpvtytyb/ rkbvfnf> b dlbfgfpjy hfcxtnys[ djpltqcndbq xfcnj ghb[jlbnczdrk/xfnm gjntywbfkmye/ djpvj;yjcnm pyfxbntkmyjujeoth,f. Dj vyjub[ ckexfz[ ceotcnde/n nt[ybxtcrbtdjpvj;yjcnb lkz nfrjq flfgnfwbb eghfdktybz cbcntvfvb>rjnjhfz gjpdjkbkf ,s evtymibnm bkb cdtcnb yf ytn eoth,jn djpltqcndbq. Jlyfrj cgjcj,yjcnm r flfgnfwbb vj;tn,snm evtymityf bp-pf j;blftvs[ hfc[jljd> ytljcnfnrfcnbvekjd lkz xfcnyjuj ctrnjhf d ltkt pfobns ghbyflkt-;fob[ ujcelfhcnde ghbhjlys[ cbcntv> ytcjdthitycndjvbyajhvfwbb jnyjcbntkmyj ,eleob[ bpvtytybq d rkbvfnt bbvt/ob[cz dfhbfynjd lkz flfgnfwbb> f nfr;t ,fhmthfvb

17Gjcktlcndbz bpvtytybz rkbvfnf lkz htubjyjd% jwtyrf ezpdbvjcnb

bycnbnewbjyfkmyjuj [fhfrnthf. R yfb,jktt ezpdbvsvctrnjhfv b htubjyfv jnyjczncz vyjujktnybt tcntcndtyystktcyst 'rjcbcntvs yf djcnjrt b dj dyenhtyyb[ hfqjyf[pfgflyjq xfcnb& djlyst htcehcs d /;ys[ hfdybyys[j,kfcnz[& ctkmcrjt [jpzqcndj d /uj-djcnjxys[ b /;ys[ghthbz[& pljhjdmt xtkjdtrf d hfqjyf[> ult d yfcnjzottdhtvz yf,k/lftncz e[elitybt rfxtcndf djple[f d ujhjlf[&ctdthyst 'rjcbcntvs b gjctktybz& gj,tht;mt d 'cnefhbz[htr d hfpdbns[ hfqjyf[ b hs,yst [jpzqcndf d j[kf;-ltyys[ b [jkjlys[ djlf[ ybprb[ ibhjn. Lheubt ctrnjhfb ce,htubjys vjuen gjkexbnm ytrjnjhst dsujls jndjpvj;yjcntq> cdzpfyys[ c ,jktt dscjrbvb ntvgthfnehfvbbkb> gjntywbfkmyj> c j,jufotybtv CO2> drk/xfz [djqystktcf pfgflyjuj gj,tht;mz& ytrjnjhst gfcn,boyst eujlmzyf pfgflt& cyb;tybt pfnhfn yf j,juhtdfybt d ctdthys[ibhjnf[& cyb;tybt hfc[jljd yf bcgjkmpjdfybt cjkb bkblheub[ vtnjljd jxbcnrb jn cytuf& ghjlktybt gthbjljdyfdbufwbb d cdj,jlys[ jn kmlf ctdthys[ ghjkbdf[ b gjh-nf[& b ctkmcrjt [jpzqcndj d ctdthys[ ibhjnf[> dj dyen-htyyb[ hfqjyf[ b yf gj,tht;mt pfgflyjq xfcnb.

6.8 Vfkst jcnhjdyst ujcelfhcndf

Dct hfccvfnhbdftvst pltcm yt,jkmibt jcnhjdyst ujcelfhcndf>pf bcrk/xtybtv Rbghf b Vfkmns d Chtlbptvyjvjhmt> hfc-gjkj;tys d nhjgbrf[. Ghbvthyj jlyf nhtnm 'nb[ ujcelfh-cnd cjcnjbn bp jlyjuj jcyjdyjuj jcnhjdf& d cjcnfd lheub[d[jlzn ytcrjkmrj bkb vyj;tcndj jcnhjdjd. Ybprjkt;fobtjcnhjdyst ujcelfhcndf b fnjkks zdkz/ncz jcj,tyyjezpdbvsvb lkz djpltqcndbq bpvtytybz rkbvfnf b cdzpfyyjujc ybv gjdsitybz ehjdyz vjhz> gjcrjkmre dj vyjub[ ckexfz[!yfghbvth% <fufvcrbt jcnhjdf> Rbhb,fnb> Vfkmlbdcrbtjcnhjdf> Vfhifkkjds jcnhjdf@ ,jkmifz xfcnm ptvyjq gjdth[-yjcnb htlrj kt;bn dsit 3–4 v yfl ceotcnde/obv yfctujlyz chtlybv ehjdytv vjhz. Vyjubt jcnhjdf c ,∆kmibvdjpdsitybtv nfr;t ezpdbvs r djpltqcndb/ bpvtytybzrkbvfnf> jcj,tyyj d b[ ghb,ht;ys[ pjyf[> ult gjxnbytbpvtyyj cjchtljnjxtyj ,jkmibycndj gjctktybq b df;ys['rjyjvbxtcrb[ byahfcnherneh.

"rjcbcntvs. {jnz gjdsitybt ntvgthfnehs yt ,eltnbvtnm ibhjrj hfcghjcnhfytyys[ ytufnbdys[ gjcktlcndbq>ytrjnjhst df;yst 'rjcbcntvs> nfrbt> rfr rjhfkkjdsthbas> jxtym xedcndbntkmys r bpvtytybzv ntvgthfnehs.Ytcvjnhz yf nj xnj ytrjnjhst hbas j,kflf/n cgjcj,-yjcnm/ flfgnbhjdfnmcz r ghjuyjpbhetvjq crjhjcnb gjds-itybz ehjdyz vjhz> dj vyjub[ xfcnz[ nhjgbrjd!yfghbvth> d Rfhb,crjv vjht> Nb[jv jrtfyt@ ytrjnjhstdbls rjhfkkjd ceotcnde/n e;t yf ghtltkf[ cdjtqntvgthfnehyjq dsyjckbdjcnb. Gjdsitybt ntvgthfnehsvjhcrjq djls !dsit ctpjyyjuj vfrcbvevf@ vj;tnghbdtcnb r cthmtpysv gjdht;ltybzv rjhfkkjd>dshf;f/obvcz d b[ j,tcwdtxbdfybb> yfheitybb b[aeyrwbq djcghjbpdjlcndf b edtkbxtybb b[ ub,tkb.Cgjcj,yjcnm vfyuhjds[ pfhjcktq flfgnbhjdfnmcz r

bpvtytyb/ rkbvfnf ,eltn hfpyjq d pfdbcbvjcnb jn b[dbljd> f nfr;t jn vtcnys[ eckjdbq !yfghbvth% yfkbxbzbkb jncencndbz ,jufns[ jnkj;tybzvb vfrhjghbkbdys[chtl& yfkbxbz ljcnfnjxyjuj rjkbxtcndf ghtcyjq djls lkzgjllth;fybz ,fkfycf pfcjktyyjcnb@. Tcntcndtyyfzcgjcj,yjcnm vfyuhjds[ pfhjcktq ghbcgjcf,kbdfnmcz bvbuhbhjdfnm gj yfghfdktyb/ r ,thtue nfr;t> rfrghtlgjkfuftncz> cybpbncz dcktlcndbt gjnthm ghb,ht;ys[ptvtkm b yfkbxbz byahfcnhernehs d ghb,ht;yjq pjyt.Yf ytrjnjhs[ jcnhjdf[ 'rjcbcntvfv e;t yfyjcbnczeoth, d htpekmnfnt fynhjgjutyys[ yfuhepjr !yfghbvthpfuhzpytybz@> rjnjhst vjuen ghtlcnfdkznm lkz yb[ lf;t,jkmie/ euhjpe> xtv cfvj bpvtytybt rkbvfnf.Bpvtytybt rkbvfnf zdbncz ljgjkytybtv r 'nbv yfuheprfvb gjcnfdbn gjl tot ,jkmie/ euhjpe ceotcndjdfybt 'nb[nhjgbxtcrb[ 'rjcbcntv.

Ublhjkjubz b djlyst htcehcs. Dj vyjub[ yt,jkmib[jcnhjdys[ ujcelfhcndf[ cthmtpyjq ghj,ktvjq zdkztnczyt[dfnrf ghtcyjq djls> b vyjubt nfrbt ujcelfhcndf d cbkm-yjq cntgtyb pfdbczn jn yfkbxbz lj;ltdjq djls rfr bcnjx-ybrf ghtcyjq djls. Cjjndtncndtyyj bpvtytybz d cnher-nehf[ lj;ltds[ jcflrjd vjuen ghbdtcnb r cthmtpysvghj,ktvfv lkz nfrb[ ujcelfhcnd.

Ghb,ht;yst cbcntvs. D rfxtcndt jlyjuj bp gjcktlcndbqghjuyjpbhetvjuj gjdsitybz ehjdyz vjhz yf vyjub[yt,jkmib[ jcnhjdf[ j;blftncz gjdsitybt ntvgjd 'hjpbbgjxd b gjnthz ghb,ht;ys[ ptvtkm. Yfghbvth d njv> xnjrfcftncz fnjkkf Vfl;ehj> d[jlzotuj d Vfhifkkjdsjcnhjdf> b Rbhb,fnb> gjlcxbnfyj> xnj ghb gjdsitybbehjdyz vjhz yf 1 v d rfntujhb/ ezpdbvs[ ptvtkm gjgflencjjndtncndtyyj 80 b 12,5 % jn dct[ bvt/ob[cz nfvptvtkm. D wtkjv> evtymitybt jcf;ltybz jnkj;tybqytufnbdyj crf;tncz yf j,hfpjdfybb gkz;tq. Jlyfrj yf,jktt djpdsityys[ jcnhjdf[ edtkbxtybt rjkbxtcndfjnkj;tybq bp gjnjrjd gjvj;tn rjvgtycbhjdfnm gjnthbgtcrf jn hbajd. J;blftncz nfr;t> xnj d htpekmnfnt gjds-itybz ehjdyz vjhz ybprjkt;fobt jcnhjdyst ujcelfhcndfb fnjkks ,elen gjldthufnmcz dj dctdjphfcnf/otq cntgtybyfdjlytybzv> pfnjgktybzv b pfcjktyb/ !gjxd b kbypghtcyjq djls@ cj cnjhjys vjhz.

Gjctktybz xtkjdtrf b byahfcnhernehf. Yf hzlt jcnhj-djd d uhegge hbcrf gjgflen ;bpytyyj df;yst byahf-cnhernehs b rhegyst crjgktybz gjctktybq> ddble b[yf[j;ltybz yf ctujlyziytv ehjdyt vjhz bkb jrjkj ytuj>f nfr;t ddble b[ ,kbpjcnb r ,thtujdjq kbybb !xfcnj dghtltkf[ 1–2 rv& d rfxtcndt ghbvthf vj;yj yfpdfnmRbhb,fnb> Nedfke> Vfkmlbdcrbt jcnhjdf> <fufvcrbtjcnhjdf@. <jktt njuj> jwtyrb ezpdbvjcnb lf/n nfr;tjcyjdfybt cxbnfnm> xnj pfnhfns yf pfobne ,thtujd bbyahfcnhernehs vjuen jrfpfnmcz ytgjcbkmysv abyfycjdsv,htvtytv lkz ytrjnjhs[ yt,jkmib[ jcnhjdys[ ujcelfhcnd.

Pljhjdmt xtkjdtrf. Cjukfcyj ghjuyjpfv bpvtytybt rkb-vfnf eceue,bn ghj,ktvs pljhjdmz> nfrbt> rfr pf,jkt-

Gjcktlcndbz bpvtytybz rkbvfnf lkz htubjyjd% jwtyrf ezpdbvjcnb18

dftvjcnm> cdzpfyyfz c ;fhjq> pf,jktdftvjcnm [jkthjq bkb[jhflrjq ltyut> f nfr;t jnhfdktybt ,bjnjrcbyfvb& dct'nj cjplfcn ljgjkybntkmye/ yfuhepre lkz b ,tp njujgthtuhe;tyys[ cbcntv plhfdjj[hfytybz ,jkmibycndfyt,jkmib[ jcnhjdjd.

Nehbpv. Nehbpv zdkztncz jcyjdysv ctrnjhjv 'rjyjvbrb dhzlt yt,jkmib[ jcnhjdys[ ujcelfhcnd d Rfhb,crjv vjht> dNb[jv b Bylbqcrjv jrtfyf[. Yfghbvth> d 1995 u. yf lj-k/ nehbpvf d dfkjdjv yfwbjyfkmyjv ghjlernt !DYG@Fynbuef> <fufvcrb[ b Vfkmlbdcrb[ jcnhjdjd ghb[jlbkjcmcjjndtncndtyyj 69, 53 b 50 %. "njn ctrnjh j,tcgtxbdftnnfr;t lkz hzlf yt,jkmib[ jcnhjdys[ ujcelfhcnd pyfxb-ntkmyst gjcnegktybz byjcnhfyyjq dfk/ns> xnj jxtym df;yjlkz yb[> gjcrjkmre vyjubt bp yb[ cbkmyj pfdbczn jnbvgjhnf ghjljdjkmcndbz> njgkbdf b hzlf lheub[ ;bpytyyjdf;ys[ njdfhjd b eckeu. D 1995 u. gjcnegktybz byjcnhfy-yjq dfk/ns jn nehbpvf j,tcgtxbkb lkz ytrjnjhs[ cnhfy,jktt 50 % jn j,ob[ lj[jljd. Bpvtytybt rkbvfnf b gjds-itybt ehjdyz vjhz yt,kfujghbznyj crf;encz yf nehbpvtrfr gentv ghzvjuj> nfr b rjcdtyyjuj djpltqcndbz. Gjnthbgkz;tq bp-pf 'hjpbb b pfnjgktybq> pfcjktybz gkfcnjdghtcyjq djls> edtkbxtybt yfuhepjr yf ghb,ht;yst'rjcbcntvs> gjdht;ltybt byahfcnherneh d htpekmnfntnhjgbxtcrb[ b dytnhjgbxtcrb[ wbrkjyjd b j,ottbcxtpyjdtybt 'cntnbxtcrb[ ,kfu b j,(trnjd lkz jnls[fgjljhden ;bpytcgjcj,yjcnm b d ljkujchjxyjq gthcgtrnbdtcjplflen euhjpe lkz ecnjqxbdjuj aeyrwbjybhjdfybz 'njujdf;yjuj ctrnjhf 'rjyjvbrb vyjub[ yt,jkmib[ jcnhjdjd.

Dsdjls. Lkz jwtyrb ezpdbvjcnb 'nb[ jcnhjdys[ ujcelfhcndr djpltqcndb/ ghjuyjpbhetvjuj bpvtytybz rkbvfnfytj,[jlbv gjkyjvfcinf,ysq rjvgktrcysq gjl[jl rjwtyrfv ezpdbvjcnb. D rjytxyjv cxtnt ezpdbvjcnm 'nb[jcnhjdjd jghtltkztncz dpfbvjltqcndbtv hfpkbxys[ ,bjab-pbxtcrb[ gfhfvtnhjd !yfghbvth% hfpvthjv> djpdsitybtv>jnyjcbntkmyjq bpjkzwbtq jcnhjdjd@ c 'rjyjvbxtcrbvb bcjwbfkmyj-rekmnehysvb [fhfrnthbcnbrfvb jcnhjdjd.Rhjvt njuj> ytrjnjhst jcnhjdf gjldthuf/ncz djpltqcndb/gthbjlbxtcrb[ jgfcys[ zdktybq> yt cdzpfyys[ c rkbvfnjv!yfghbvth% ptvktnhzctybzv> bpdth;tybzv dekrfyjd>weyfvb@& j,ofz ezpdbvjcnm 'nb[ jcnhjdjd yt vj;tn ,snmnjxyj jwtytyf ,tp extnf nfrb[ uhjpys[ zdktybq.Fyfkjubxysv j,hfpjv> ghb jwtyrf[ ezpdbvjcnb 'nb[yt,jkmib[ jcnhjdys[ ujcelfhcnd cktletn ghbybvfnm djdybvfybt wtyyjcnm ythsyjxys[ njdfhjd b eckeu !yfghbvth%htcehcjd lkz ceotcndjdfybz yfctktybz> cnhernehrjhtyyjuj yfctktybz> nhflbwbjyys[ pyfybq b yfdsrjd@>rjnjhst nfr;t vjuen jrfpfnmcz gjl euhjpjq d htpekmnfntbpvtytybz rkbvfnf. Lkz ytrjnjhs[ cjj,otcnd yf 'nb[jcnhjdf[ nfrjt ljcnjzybt vj;tn bvtnm yfcnjkmrj ;tdf;yjt pyfxtybt> rfr b hsyjxyst njdfhs b eckeub.

Ytjghtltktyyjcnm ghjuyjpjd bpvtytybz rkbvfnf vj;tnjnhbwfkmyj crfpfnmcz yf ghbyznbb vth flfgnfwbb> jcj,tyyjtckb extcnm> xnj ytrjnjhst dfhbfyns zdkz/ncz ljhjuj-cnjzobvb bkb nht,e/n bpvtytybq d yjhvf[ b gjdtltybbj,otcndf. D rfxtcndt herjdjlzotuj ghbywbgf cktletn ghbp-

yfnm> xnj ghjuhfvvs cnhfntubq b hfpdbnbz> rjnjhstghtlecvfnhbdf/n hfwbjyfkmyjt bcgjkmpjdfybt htcehcjd d wt-kz[ ecnjqxbdjuj hfpdbnbz b rjnjhst vjuen 'aatrnbdyjhtfubhjdfnm yf bpvtyz/obtcz eckjdbz> yfghbvth yf bpvt-ytybt rkbvfnf> ,skb ,s gjktpys lkz yt,jkmib[ jcnhjdys[ujcelfhcnd> lf;t tckb yt ghjbpjqltn bpvtytybz rkbvfnf.

Yt,jkmibt jcnhjdyst ujcelfhcndf bcrk/xbntkmyj ezpdbvsr djpltqcndbzv ukj,fkmyjuj bpvtytybz rkbvfnf bukj,fkmyjuj gjdsitybz ehjdyz vjhz. D ntjhbb djpvj;tywtksq hzl cnhfntubq flfgnfwbb. Jlyfrj lkz ytrjnjhs[yt,jkmib[ ybprjkt;fob[ jcnhjdys[ ujcelfhcnd b fnjkkjddfhbfyn jncnegktybz c gj,tht;bq dyenhm ceib ghfrnb-xtcrb ytdjpvj;ty. D ytrjnjhs[ 'rcnhtvfkmys[ ckexfz[vj;tn lf;t ,snm hfccvjnhty djghjc j vbuhfwbb bgthtytctybb yfctktyys[ geyrnjd pf ghtltks yfwbjyfkmys[uhfybw.

6.9 Evthtyyfz pjyf Fpbb

Evthtyyfz pjyf Fpbb drk/xftn cnhfys Fpbb> hfcgjkj;tyystvt;le 18° c. i. b Ctdthysv gjkzhysv rheujv> drk/xfz%Zgjycrbt jcnhjdf> Rjhtqcrbq gjkejcnhjd> Vjyujkb/>,jkmie/ xfcnm Rbnfz b Hjccbqcrjq Cb,bhb. Hfccnjzybt cdjcnjrf yf pfgfl dctq 'njq pjys cjcnfdkztn jrjkj 8 000 rvb c ctdthf yf /u — jrjkj 5 000 rv. D rfxtcndt xtnrjdshf;tyys[ htubjyjd vj;yj yfpdfnm pfceikbdst#gjkepf-ceikbdst> veccjyyst b cb,bhcrbq htubjys.

"rjcbcntvs. {jnz nthhbnjhbz gjntywbfkmyjuj hfcghjcn-hfytybz ktcjd evthtyyjuj gjzcf d evthtyyjv gjzct Fpbbd pyfxbntkmyjq cntgtyb hfcxbotyf b bcgjkmpetncz lkzdtltybz byntycbdyjuj ctkmcrjuj [jpzqcndf> ukj,fkmyjtbpvtytybt rkbvfnf vj;tn gjcke;bnm ljcnfnjxyjqghbxbyjq lkz j,hfpjdfybz cnhernehys[ bpvtytybq djcnf/ob[cz ktcf[ evthtyyjuj gjzcf. {fhfrnth b dtkb-xbyf 'nb[ bpvtytybq> jlyfrj> pfdbczn jn cjjndtncnde/ob[bpvtytybq d yfkbxbb djls b jn 'aatrnbdyjcnb djlj-gjkmpjdfybz. Bpvtytybz d ntvgthfneht b rjkbxtcndtfnvjcathys[ jcflrjd yf gfcn,boys[ eujlmz[ evthtyyjujgjzcf vjuen ghbdtcnb r bpvtytyb/ dtutnfwbjyys[ gthb-jljd b r gthtvtotyb/ uhfybw vt;le pjyfvb gfcn,bo>ktcjd b recnfhybrjd. Htpekmnfns ytrjnjhs[ bccktljdfybq>jcyjdfyys[ yf bcgjkmpjdfybb vjltktq> lf/n jcyjdfybtcxbnfnm> xnj d eckjdbz[ rkbvfnf c 'rdbdfktynyj eldjtyysvcjlth;fybtv CO2 ghjbpjqltn pyfxbntkmyjt evtymitybtgkjoflb !lj 50 %) b ghjlernbdyjcnb ,jhtfkmys[ ktcjd!ukfdysv j,hfpjv d Hjccbqcrjq Atlthfwbb@> cjghjdj;-lftvjt pfvtnysv hfcibhtybtybtv pjy gfcn,bo b rec-nfhybrjd. Ghjbpjqltn nfr;t evtymitybt gkjoflb pjysneylhs !dgkjnm lj 50 %)> cjghjdj;lftvjt ds,hjcfvbvtnfyf bp uke,jrb[ ujhbpjynjd njhazyybrjd b edtkb-xtybtv !vtymit xtv yf 25 %@ ds,hjcjd CO2.

Ublhjkjubz b djlyst htcehcs. D wtkjv hf,jnf c vjltkzvbd hfvrf[ ,jkmibycndf cwtyfhbtd cjcnjzybz hfdyjdtcbz ghb

19Gjcktlcndbz bpvtytybz rkbvfnf lkz htubjyjd% jwtyrf ezpdbvjcnb

2 × CO2 cdbltntkmcnde/n j njv> xnj ghjbpjqltn evtymit-ybt djljj,tcgtxtybz pf bcrk/xtybtv ,fcctqyjd ytcrjkm-rb[ htr. <jktt ntgkst pbvs vjuen ytufnbdyj crfpfnmcz yfdjlys[ ,fkfycf[> gjcrjkmre gjnht,yjcnb d djlt dsitdtcyjq b ktnjv. Rkbvfnbxtcrbt eckjdbz d cjcnjzybbhfdyjdtcbz ghb eldjtyyjv 'rdbdfktynt cjlth;fybz CO2jpyfxf/n> xnj r 2050 u. vj;tn ghjbpjqnb evtymitybtvfccs ujhys[ ktlybrjd yf wtks[ 25 %. Cjukfcyj ghjuyj-pfv> gthdjyfxfkmyj cnjr d htpekmnfnt nfzybz ktlybrjd dChtlytq Fpbb djphfcntn r 2050 u. d 3 hfpf> jlyfrj r2100 u. cnjr jn nfzybz ktlybrjd cjrhfnbncz lj lde[nhtntq jn tuj ctujlyziytuj j,(tvf. Htpekmnfns hf,jns cvjltkzvb lf/n jcyjdfybt ghtlgjkfufnm> xnj cnjr dctdthyjq xfcnb Rbnfz zdkzncz cbkmyj ezpdbvsv rdjpltqcndbzv bpvtytybz rkbvfnf b ,eltn bpvtyznmczdcktlcndbt bpvtytybq d rjkbxtcndt fnvjcathys[ jcflrjd ddtctyybq> ktnybq b jctyybq gthbjls> jcj,tyyj d ctpjygfdjlrjd. Lkz Zgjybb yfbkexibq gjl[jl r ljcnb;tyb/,fkfycf vt;le cghjcjv yf djle b tt ghtlkj;tybtvpfrk/xftncz> dthjznyj> d gjdsitybb 'aatrnbdyjcnbeghfdktybz djlysvb htcehcfvb. D lheub[ xfcnz[ evthty-yjuj gjzcf Fpbb df;yjt pyfxtybt> gj-ght;ytve> ,eltnbvtnm jcdjtybt djlys[ htcehcjd& jcyjdyjq djghjc j,flfgnfwbb ,eltn pfrk/xfnmcz d njv> rfrbv j,hfpjv extcnmd ghjtrnf[ yjdjq byahfcnhernehs djlys[ htcehcjd ntytjghtltktyyjcnb> rjnjhst cdzpfys c bpvtytybtv rkbvfnf.Jcyjdyst ytjghtltktyyjcnb cdzpfys c jncencndbtv yflt;-ys[ ghjuyjpjd jnyjcbntkmyj djpltqcndbq ukj,fkmyjujbpvtytybz yf fpbfncrbt veccjys bkb yf zdktybt "YCJ>jrfpsdf/obt ,jkmijt dkbzybt yf htxyst cnjrb. D ,ele-otv ytj,[jlbvj ,eltn ghjdtcnb bccktljdfybz djpltqcndbqvyj;tcndtyys[ yfuhepjr yf djlyst htcehcs d vt;le-yfhjlys[ htxys[ ,fcctqyf[.

Ghjbpdjlcndj ghjljdjkmcndbz b djkjrybcns[ vfnt-hbfkjd. Ghjuyjpbhetvst bpvtytybz d ehj;fz[ ctkmcrj-[jpzqcndtyys[ rekmneh> cdzpfyyst c ghjuyjpfvb bpvtytybzrkbvfnf gj htpekmnfnfv hfpys[ VJW> dtcmvf hfpkbxys.Nfr> yfghbvth> d Rbnft cjukfcyj hfpkbxysv cwtyfhbzv b dhfpys[ hfqjyf[ bpvtytybt ehj;ftd ytcrjkmrb[ ctkmcrj-[jpzqcndtyys[ rekmneh r 2050 u. vj;tn ,snm cjukfcyjghjuyjpfv cktle/obv% hbc — jn -78 % lj + 15 %& git-ybwf — jn -21 % lj + 55%& b vfbc — jn -19 % lj + 5 %.Edtkbxtybt ehj;fqyjcnb vj;tn yf,k/lfnmcz d njvckexft> tckb yf hfpdbnbt ctkmcrj[jpzqcndtyys[ rekmnehjrf;tn gjkj;bntkmyjt djpltqcndbt edtkbxtybt cjlth-;fybz CO2. Jlyfrj dtkbxbyf nfrjuj gjdsitybz gj-ght;ytve yt jghtltktyf. Ghtlgjkfuftncz> xnj cldbu pjyctkmcrj[jpzqcndtyys[ rekmneh gj yfghfdktyb/ yf ctdthghbdtltn r gjdsityb/ ehj;fqyjcnb ctkmcrj[jpzq-cndtyys[ rekmneh d ctdthyjq Cb,bhb> yj r evtymityb/!ghbvthyj yf 25 %@ ghjbpdjlcndf pthyjds[ d /uj-pfgflyjqxfcnb Cb,bhb dcktlcndbt edtkbxtybz pfceikbdjcnbrkbvfnf. Lkz evthtyyjuj gjzcf Fpbb jcj,j df;yjtpyfxtybt bvttn frdfrekmnehf. Vj;yj ,eltn d ,jkmib[vfcinf,f[ rekmnbdbhjdfnm ntgkjdjlyst dbls. Gjntgktybtgjnht,etn> xnj,s ,jkmit dybvfybz eltkzkjcm djpvj;yjve

bcnjotyb/ jpjyf> ,jktpyzv hs, b gjzdktyb/ b[yt;tkfntkmys[ dbljd> f nfr;t gjntywbfkmyj djpvj;ysvytufnbdysv afrnjhfv> nfrbv> rfr bpvtytybz d ecnf-yjdktyys[ c[tvf[ djcghjbpdjlcndf> vfhihenf[ vbuhfwbb bdpfbvjcdzpz[ vt;le 'rjcbcntvfvb.

Ghb,ht;yst cbcntvs. Gjdsitybt ehjdyz vjhz eceue,bne;t ceotcnde/obt cthmtpyst ghj,ktvs ctlbvtynfwbb dltkmnf[ htr d htpekmnfnt ntrnjybxtcrb[ ghjwtccjd bfynhjgjutyys[ djpltqcndbq. <jktt cthmtpyst vfcinf,sghbvtn nfr;t dnjh;tybt cjktyjq djls cj cnjhjys vjhz.Gjdsitybt ehjdyz vjhz yf 1 v cjplfcn euhjpe ytrjnjhsvghb,ht;ysv hfqjyfv> yfghbvth ghb,ht;yjq pjytZgjybb> yf rjnjhjq hfcgjkj;tyj 50 % ghjbpdjlcndtyys[vjoyjcntq Zgjybb !yfghbvth ujhjlf% Njrbj> Jcfrf bYfujz@. Rhjvt njuj> gjl euhjpjq bcxtpyjdtybz jrf;enczghbvthyj 90 % bvt/ob[cz gtcxfys[ gkz;tq Zgjybb.

Pljhjdmt xtkjdtrf. Cjukfcyj ghjuyjpfv> r 2050 u. pf,j-ktdftvjcnm !d jcyjdyjv cthltxyj-cjcelbcnsvb b htcgbhf-njhysvb pf,jktdfybzvb@ b cvthnyjcnm jn ntgkjds[yfuhepjr djphfcnen ,jktt xtv d ldf hfpf dcktlcndbt edtkb-xtybz xfcnjns bkb vfcinf,jd ntgkjds[ djky d eckjdbz[bpvtytybz rkbvfnf> ghjuyjpbhetvjuj yf jcyjdt VJWgtht[jlyjuj cjcnjzybz !GFDL X2, UKMO X6@. Cdzpfyjtc bpvtytybtv rkbvfnf ytnnj-hfcibhtybt utjuhfabxtcrb[pjy j,bnfybz !yf ,jktt dscjrbt ehjdyb b yf lheubtibhjns@ jhufybpvjd-gthtyjcxbrjd byatrwbjyys[ ,jktpytq!yfghbvth vfkzhbqys[ rjvfhjd b ekbnjr-gthtyjcxbrjdibcnjcjvjpf@ b bpvtytybz d lbyfvbrt ;bpytyyjuj wbrkfgthtyjcxbrjd ,jktpytq b byatrwbjyys[ gfhfpbnjd d cdjtqcjdjregyjcnb edtkbxfn gjntywbfkmyst djpvj;yjcnb lkzgthtlfxb vyjub[ nhfycvbccbdys[ ,jktpytq. Dcktlcndbtrkbvfnbxtcrb[ djpltqcndbq yf hfcghtltktybt djls>ntvgthfnehe b hfpvyj;tybt vbrhjjhufybpvjd vj;tnyf,k/lfnmcz nfr;t b hjcn pf,jktdftvjcnb ytnhfycvbc-cbdysvb byatrwbjyysvb ,jktpyzvb> nfrbvb> rfr [jkthf>cfkmvjytkktp b lheubvb> gthtlf/obvbcz xthtp djle bgboe byatrwbjyysvb ,jktpyzvb. Ghb 'njv cktljdfkj ,s>dthjznyj> ecbkbnm rjynhjkm pf pf,jktdftvjcnm/ bj,(tlbybnm tuj c lheubvb dblfvb vjybnjhbyuf jrhe;f-/otq chtls> c ntv xnj,s cjplfnm cbcntvs hfyytuj ghtleg-ht;ltybz& cjplfnm djpvj;yjcnb lkz pf,kfujdhtvtyyjuj b,tpjgfcyjuj lkz jrhe;f/otq chtls dvtifntkmcndf dckexft ytj,[jlbvjcnb pfobns pljhjdmz j,otcndf& bhfphf,jnfnm ghtleghtlbntkmyst vths cjwbfkmyjq gjkb-nbrb lkz cyb;tybz hbcrf dcgsitr b gjcktle/otujhfcghjcnhfytybz 'gbltvbq.

Dsdjls. Jcyjdyst gjcktlcndbz ukj,fkmyjuj bpvtytybzrkbvfnf d evthtyyjv gjzct Fpbb> cjukfcyj ghjuyjpfv>,elen dshf;fnmcz d pyfxbntkmys[ gthtvtotybz[ uhfybw,jhtfkmys[ ktcjd> bcxtpyjdtybb pyfxbntkmys[ xfcntqujhys[ ktlybrjd b yt[dfnrt djls. Ytjghtltktyyjcnm 'nb[jwtyjr cdzpfyf c jncencndbtv yflt;ys[ ghjuyjpjd ubl-hjkjubxtcrjuj wbrkf d hfvrf[ cwtyfhbtd ukj,fkmyjujbpvtytybz rkbvfnf. Ghb vjltkbhjdfybb ublhjkjubxtcrjuj

Gjcktlcndbz bpvtytybz rkbvfnf lkz htubjyjd% jwtyrf ezpdbvjcnb20

wbrkf chtlb jcyjdys[ ytjghtltktyyjcntq jcnf/nczvfcinf,s djpltqcndbz bpvtytybz rkbvfnf yf fpbfncrbtveccjys b zdktybt "YCJ. Ghjuyjps jnyjcbntkmyj ehj-;ftd ctkmcrj[jpzqcndtyys[ rekmneh nfr;t yjcznytjghtltktyysq [fhfrnth b yt njkmrj bp-pf ytjghtlt-ktyyjcntq ublhjkjubxtcrjuj wbrkf> yj nfr;t b bp-pfgjntywbfkmyjq djpvj;yjcnb gjpbnbdyjuj dkbzybz CO2 bghfrnbrb ptvktltkbz. Gjdsitybt ehjdyz vjhz cjplftneuhjpe lkz gtcxfys[ gkz;tq d ghb,ht;ys[ pjyf[& dltkmnf[ htr jyj zdkztncz ghj,ktvjq> cjplfyyjq ltzntkm-yjcnm/ xtkjdtrf. Ytj,[jlbvj ghjdtltybt rjvgktrcys[bccktljdfybq gjcktlcndbq> d rjnjhs[ exbnsdfkbcm ,safrnjhs vyj;tcndtyys[ yfuhepjr.

6.10 Nhjgbxtcrfz pjyf Fpbb

Nhjgbxtcrfz pjyf Fpbb dtcmvf hfpyjj,hfpyf c abpbrj-utjuhf-abxtcrjq njxrb phtybz b 'rjkjubxtcrb ,jufnf> tckb extcnmdct ,bjhfpyjj,hfpbt ghbhjlys[ b rekmnehys[ dbljd. Yfctujlyziybq ltym xbcktyyjcnm yfctktybz lfyyjuj htubjyfcjcnfdkztn ghbvthyj 1,6 vkhl xtkjdtr> b> cjukfcyj ghjuyj-pfv> jyj djphfcntn r 2025 u. lj 2,4 vkhl xtkjdtr.Yfctktybt d jcyjdyjv ghj;bdftn d ctkmcrjq vtcnyjcnb> [jnzd 1995 u. bp 25 rhegytqib[ ujhjljd vbhf 6 yf[jlbkbcmbvtyyj d 'njv htubjyt. Rkbvfn d nhjgbxtcrjq pjyt Fpbb[fhfrnthbpetncz ctpjyysvb vtntjhjkjubxtcrbvb cnher-nehfvb> cdzpfyysvb c ldevz veccjyfvb b djpybryjdtybtvnhjgbxtcrb[ wbrkjyjd d nht[ jcyjdys[ hfqjyf[ wbrkjutytpf!<tyufkmcrbq pfkbd> ctdthyfz xfcnm Nb[juj jrtfyf b ?;yj-Rbnfqcrjt vjht@. Djpltqcndbz bpvtytybz rkbvfnf lj,fdznczr lheubv yfuheprfv> nfrbv> rfr ,scnhfz eh,fybpfwbz>bylecnhbfkbpfwbz b 'rjyjvbxtcrjt hfpdbnbt> rjnjhstcke;fn ghbxbyjq ythfwbjyfkmyjq 'rcgkefnfwbb ghbhjlys[htcehcjd> edtkbxtybz pfuhzpytybz> ltuhflfwbb ptvtkm blheub[ 'rjkjubxtcrb[ ghj,ktv.

"rjcbcntvs. Cjukfcyj ghjuyjpfv ghjbpjqltn pyfxbntkmyjtgthtvtotybt 'rjcbcntv yf ,jktt dscjrbt ehjdyb d ujhf[ b dyfujhmz[ nhjgbxtcrjq pjys Fpbb. Vj;yj j;blfnm> xnj yf,jkmib[ dscjnf[ hfpyjdblyjcnb cjhys[ nhfd pfvtyznlthtdmz> [jnz crjhjcnm bpvtytybz hfcnbntkmyjcnb vj;tn,snm vtymit> xtv crjhjcnm bpvtytybz rkbvfnf& r njve ;t>juhfybxbdf/obv afrnjhjv gjcke;bn edtkbxtybt 'hjpbb ddscjrb[ Ubvfkfz[. Bpvtytybz d hfcghtltktybb b pljhjdmtnhjgbxtcrb[ dkf;ys[ ktcjd b ,jktt ce[b[ veccjyjds[ ktcjd,elen yjcbnm ckj;ysq [fhfrnth. D Nfbkfylt> yfghbvth>gkjoflb> pfyznst nhjgbxtcrbvb ktcfvb> vjuen djphfcnb jn45 lj 80 % jn j,otuj ktcyjuj gjrhjdf> d nj dhtvz rfr dIhb-Kfyrt vj;tn ghjbpjqnb pyfxbntkmyjt edtkbxtybtce[b[ ktcjd b evtymitybt dkf;ys[ ktcjd. Ghjuyjpbhetvjtedtkbxtybt 'dfgjnhfycgbhfwbb b ecbktybt bpvtyxbdjcnblj;ltds[ jcflrjd> gj dctq dthjznyjcnb> jrf;en ytufnbdyjtdkbzybt yf ceotcndjdfybt ghtcyjdjlys[ pf,jkjxtyys[ ptvtkm>xnj ghbdtltn d htpekmnfnt r evtymityb/ pfybvftvs[ bvbgkjofltq b b[ dscs[fyb/. Lkz ghb,ht;ys[ 'rjcbcntv jcyjd-ysvb> cdzpfyysvb c bpvtytybtv rkbvfnf yfuheprfvb> zdzncz>

crjhtt dctuj> gjdsitybt ehjdyz vjhz b gjdsitybtntvgthfnehs gjdth[yjcnb vjhz. Rjhfkkjdst hbas vjuen ghbc-gjcj,bnmcz r crjhjcnb gjdsitybz ehjdyz vjhz> jlyfrj ,elenj,tcwdtxbdfnmcz bp-pf ,jktt dscjrb[ ntvgthfneh. Vbuhfwbzvfyuhjds[ pfhjcktq b ghbkbdys[ pf,jkjxtyys[ ptvtkm dyenhmceib> rfr ghtlgjkfuftncz> ,eltn juhfybxtyf yfkbxbtvcjplfyys[ xtkjdtrjv byahfcnherneh b ltzntkmyjcnm/ xtkjdtrf.

Ublhjkjubz b djlyst htcehcs. :bpytyyj df;ye/ hjkm dj,tcgtxtybb djljq rjynbytynfkmyjq veccjyyjq Fpbb buhf/nUbvfkfb. Gjdsitybt ntvgthfneh b ecbktybt ctpjyyjqbpvtyxbdjcnb fnvjcathys[ jcflrjd> rfr j;blftncz> dspjdenecbktyyjt nfzybt ktlybrjd b gjdsczn jgfcyjcnm yfdjlytybzbp-pf dytpfgys[ ghjhsdjd djls bp ktlybrjds[ jpth.Evtymitybt chtlytuj cnjrf gbnftvs[ cytujv htr dcjdjregyjcnb c edtkbxtybtv gbrjds[ cnjrjd b hjcnjvrjkbxtcndf jnkj;tybq jrf;tn cbkmyjt dkbzybt yfdshf,jnre ublhj'ktrnhj'ythubb> djljj,tcgtxtybz ujhjljd bctkmcrjuj [jpzqcndf. Rjkbxtcndj djls> gjcnegf/otq bpgbnftvs[ cytujv htr> vj;tn dyfxfkt djphfcnb> yj d ,jkttljkujchjxyjq gthcgtrnbdt evtymibncz. Cnjr gbnftvs[lj;lzvb htr vj;tn d ,eleotv bpvtybnmcz. Evtymitybtrjkbxtcndf djls jn nfzybz cytujd ghbdtltn r ,jktt cbkmysv>xtv ctqxfc> yfuheprfv yf cnjr 'nb[ htr d ntxtybt ce[jujctpjyf. Hjcn yfctktybz b edtkbxtybt cghjcf ctkmcrj-[jpzqcndtyyjuj> ghjvsiktyyjuj b ublhj'ythutnbxtcrjujctrnjhjd yf djle cjplflen ljgjkybntkmyst yfuheprb dj,kfcnb djlys[ htcehcjd. Yfb,jktt cbkmyjt lfdktybt ,eltnjrfpsdfnmcz yf ,jktt ce[bt ,fcctqys htr b yf htrb cybprbvb ctpjyysvb cnjrfvb. Ublhjkjubxtcrbt bpvtytybz yfjcnhjdf[ b d lhtyf;ys[ ,fcctqyf[ ghb,ht;yjq pjys> rfrj;blftncz> ,elen chfdybntkmyj yt,jkmibvb gj chfdytyb/ cnfrbvb bpvtytybzvb d rjynbytynfkmyjq nhjgbxtcrjq pjytFpbb> pf bcrk/xtybtv bpvtytybq> cdzpfyys[ c gjdsitybtvehjdyz vjhz.

Ghjbpdjlcndj ghjljdjkmcndbz b djkjrybcns[ vfnt-hbfkjd. Dj vyjub[ bccktljdfybz[ ,skf gjrfpfyf xedcndb-ntkmyjcnm jcyjdys[ pthyjds[ b lhtdtcys[ ctkmcrj-[jpzqcndtyys[ rekmneh r bpvtytybzv d ntvgthfneht>dkf;yjcnb b cjlth;fybb CO2 d nt[ vfcinf,f[> rjnjhstghjuyjpbhe/ncz lkz lfyyjuj htubjyf. Yfghbvth ghtlgj-kfuftncz> xnj djpltqcndbz yf ehj;fb hbcf> gitybws bcjhuj ,elen nfrjds> xnj k/,jt gjdsitybt ghjbpdjlcndf>cdzpfyyjt c j,jufotybtv CO2> ,eltn ,jktt xtv cdtltyj yfytn cyb;tybtv ehj;fqyjcnb jn bpvtytybq d ntvgthfnehtbkb dkf;yjcnb. {jnz djpltqcndbz bpvtytybz rkbvfnfvjuen dspdfnm d htpekmnfnt pyfxbntkmyst bpvtytybz dehj;fqyjcnb ctkmcrj[jpzqcndtyys[ rekmneh> b[ ghjbp-djlcndt> [hfytybb b hfcghtltktybb> ytnnj-'aatrn jn 'nb[bpvtytybq d vfcinf,f[ dctuj htubjyf jcnftncz ytjght-ltktyysv> gjcrjkmre ceotcnde/n hfpkbxbz vt;le cjh-nfvb> vtcnyst hfpkbxbz d ctpjyf[ dtutnfwbb> ghfrnbrtdjpltksdfybz ctkmcrj[jpzqcndtyys[ rekmneh b n. l. Dvjltkz[ ehj;fqyjcnb yt exntys djpltqcndbz djpvj;ys[,jktpytq> ctkmcrj[jpzqcndtyys[ dhtlbntktq b vbrhj-jhufybpvjd b yt jghtltktyf ezpdbvjcnm ctkmcrj[jpzq-

21Gjcktlcndbz bpvtytybz rkbvfnf lkz htubjyjd% jwtyrf ezpdbvjcnb

cndtyys[ gkjofltq r djpltqcndb/ 'gbpjlbxtcrb[ cnb[bq-ys[ ,tlcndbq> drk/xfz yfdjlytybz> pfce[b b wbrkjys.Jcj,tyyj ezpdbvsvb r nfrjq cbnefwbb jrfpsdf/nczuheggs ctkmcrjuj yfctktybz c ybprbvb lj[jlfvb> rjnjhstpfdbczn jn nhflbwbjyys[ cbcntv dtltybz ctkmcrjuj[jpzqcndf bkb jn ghjbpdjlcndf yf vfhubyfkmys[ ptvkz[.

Ghb,ht;yst cbcntvs. Ghb,ht;yst ptvkb zdkz/nczjcj,tyyj ezpdbvsvb> gjcrjkmre yfb,jktt jxtdblysv gjc-ktlcndbtv bpvtytybz rkbvfnf zdbncz gjdsitybt ehjdyzvjhz. Gkjnyj pfctktyyst b byntycbdyj bcgjkmpetvstybprjkt;fobt ghb,ht;yst hfdybys> jcnhjdf b ltkmns htrjcj,tyyj ezpdbvs lkz 'hjpbb b gjnthb ptvtkm> pfnjgktybzb yfdjlytybz cj cnjhjys vjhz> gthtvtotybz ddth[ gjntxtyb/ htr ahjynf cjktyjq#ghtcyjq djls b ghjybryjdtybzcjktyjq vjhcrjq djls d kbyps ghtcyjq djls. D uheggejcj,juj hbcrf d[jlzn rhegyst nthhbnjhbb d ltkmnf[ htr d<fyukflti> d Vmzyvt> Dmtnyfvt b Nfbkfylt b ybprj-kt;fobt hfqjys Byljytpbb> Abkbggby b Vfkfqpbb.Cjwbfkmyj-'rjyjvbxtcrbt gjcktlcndbz vjuen ghjzdbnmcz drhegys[ ujhjlf[ b gjhnf[> yf nehbcncrb[ rehjhnf[> drecnfhys[ b rjvvthxtcrb[ hs,ys[ [jpzqcndf[> d ghb,-ht;yjv ctkmcrjv [jpzqcndt b ghb hfpdbnbb byahfcnher-nehs. Htpekmnfns ghjdtltyys[ vt;leyfhjlys[ bccktljdf-ybq erfpsdf/n yf nj> xnj ghb gjdsitybb ehjdyz vjhz yf 1 vbp ghb,ht;yjq pjys lfyyjuj htubjyf ghbltncz gthtctkbnmytcrjkmrj vbkkbjyjd xtkjdtr. Pfnhfns yf vths htfub-hjdfybz> yfghfdktyyst yf evtymitybt gjcktlcndbqgjdsitybz ehjdyz vjhz> vjuen ,snm jxtym ,jkmibvb.

Pljhjdmt xtkjdtrf. Ghb ukj,fkmyjv gjntgktybb> rfrj;blftncz> djphfcntn xfcnjnf b vfcinf,s pf,jktdftvjcnbytrjnjhsvb nhfycvbccbdysvb ,jktpyzvb. Djp,elbntkbnfrb[ ,jktpytq> rfr vfkzhbz> ibcnjcjvjp b kb[jhflrfltyut> zdkz/ob[cz jlyjq bp jcyjdys[ ghbxby pf,jkt-dftvjcnb b cvthnyjcnb d nhjgbxtcrjq Fpbb> jxtymxedcndbntkmys r rkbvfne> b ghb bpvtytybb rkbvfnf> gjdctq dthjznyjcnb> hfcghjcnhfyzncz d yjdst htubjys pfghtltks ctujlyziyb[ hfqjyjd 'yltvbb 'nb[ ,jktpytq.Chtlb yfctktybz> rjnjhjve dgthdst ghbltncz cnjkryenmczc 'nbvb yjdsvb lkz ytuj ,jktpyzvb> ehjdtym cvthnyjcnb>gthdjyfxfkmyj> ,eltn ,jktt dscjrbv. Cjukfcyj htpekm-nfnfv jlyjuj bccktljdfybz> rjnjhjt cgtwbfkmyj ,skjgjcdzotyj dkbzyb/ rkbvfnf yf byatrwbjyyst ,jktpyb dezpdbvs[ yf ctujlyziybq ltym htubjyf[> rfr jlyj bpgjcktlcndbq bpvtytybz rkbvfnf d hfvrf[ lbfgfpjyf cwtyfhbtd>hfphf,jnfyys[ c gjvjom/ VJW> j;blftncz edtkbxtybtgjntywbfkmys[ djpvj;yjcntq lkz 'gbltvbb vfkzhbb yf12–27 % b lkz kb[jhflrb ltyut — yf 31–47 %> bevtymitybt pf,jktdftvjcnb ibcnjcjvjpjv yf 11–17 %.J;blftncz nfr;t b hjcn pf,jktdftvjcnb gthtlf/obvbczxthtp djle byatrwbjyysvb ,jktpyzvb> yf ljk/ rjnjhs[ e;tghb[jlbncz jcyjdyfz xfcnm 'gbltvbq d lfyyjv htubjyt& 'nj,eltn cdzpfyj c gjdsitybtv ntvgthfneh b edtkbxtybtvdkf;yjcnb> rjnjhst yfkj;fncz yf e;t ceotcnde/obt

eckjdbz b ghjuyjpbhetvsq hjcn yfctktybz> hfcibhtybteh,fybpfwbb> e[elitybt rfxtcndf djls b lheubtntyltywbb.

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7. Gjnht,yjcnb d yfexys[ bccktljdfybz[

Ghj,tks d pyfybz[ b ytljcnfnjr byajhvfwbb> dszdktyystghb gjlujnjdrt yfcnjzotuj Cgtwbfkmyjuj ljrkflf>gjpdjkz/n jghtltkbnm ytrjnjhst ghbjhbntnyst j,kfcnb> drjnjhs[ nht,etncz ghjdtltybt lfkmytqitq hf,jns d wtkz[jrfpfybz gjvjob kbwfv> jghtltkz/obv gjkbnbre> dhtitybb b[ nhelys[ pflfx. Ytj,[jlbvs bccktljdfybz gj cktle/obv djghjcfv%

• ekexitybt ,fps jcyjdys[ lfyys[ rfr rkbvf-nbxtcrb[> nfr b cjwbfkmyj-'rjyjvbxtcrb[&

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Gjcktlcndbz bpvtytybz rkbvfnf lkz htubjyjd% jwtyrf ezpdbvjcnb22

yt,jkmibt hfpdbdf/obtcz ujcelfhcndf> ult htcehcslkz ghjdtltybz yfexys[ bccktljdfybq b jwtyjr yfctujlyziybq ltym ytljcnfnjxys&

• ghjdtltybt fyfkbpf dfhbfynjd flfgnfwbb> drk/xfzgjnht,yjcnb d hfphf,jnrt yjds[ nt[yjkjubq b cjp-lfybb djpvj;yjcntq lkz flfgnfwbb ceotcnde/ob[dbljd nt[yjkjubb d yjds[ vtcnf[&

• ghjdtltybt rjvgktrcys[ jwtyjr gj ctrnjhfv>drk/xfz dkbzybt bpvtytybz rkbvfnf yf 'rjyj-vbxtcrbt b lheubt pfnhfns& f nfr;t gj cnhfyfv bhtubjyfv> drk/xfz vths flfgnfwbb b lheubtcjwbfkmyj-'rjyjvbxtcrbt bpvtytybz.

Fdnjhs#cgtwbfkbcns> ghtlcnfdbdibt vfnthbfks

Hj,thn N. Ejncjy !CIF@> Vfheae R. Pbyjdtht !Pbv,f,dt@> Hbxfhl U.Vjcc !CIF@> Htbl B. <fith !Yjdfz Ptkfylbz@> Vfhnby <tybcnjy!Idtqwfhbz@> Jcdfkmlj A. Rfypbfyb !Fhutynbyf@> Cfylhf V. Lbfp!Fhutynbyf@> L'dbl L;. Ljrrty !CIF@> L;jy N. "dthtn !CIF@> <.<ktqh Abnw[fhbc !Yjdfz Ptkfylbz@> {f,b,f L;bntq !Fdcnhfkbz@> <e,eG. L;'kkje !Ufv,bz@> Vehfhb Kfk !Bylbz@> H. Itrcgbh Vfqz!Pbv,f,dt@> Hjl;th A. Vfrkby !Fdcnhfkbz@> V. R. Vbhpf !<fyukflti@>Hjy Ybkmcjy !CIF@> Zy H. Yje,k !Fdcnhfkbz@> Ktjyfhl F. Y=hc!<fh,fljc@> {. D. J. Jrjn–Jl;tylj !Rtybz@> F. <'hbc Gbnnjr!Fdcnhfkbz@> L'dbl C. Ihbyth !CIF@> C. R. Cby[f !Bylbz@> Hjl;th <.Cnhbn !Rfyflf@> Ce L;bkfy !Rbnfq@> Fdtkbyj U. Cefhtp !Re,f@> Hbxfhl C.L;. Njk !Yblthkfyls@> Kfehf Dfy Dfq Vfruhjhb !CIF@> VfcfnjibBjibyj !Zgjybz@

I. GTHDSQ LJRKFL B JWTYRB VU"BR> 1990 u.a) BPVTYTYBT RKBVFNF — Yfexyfz jwtyrf VU"BR. Ljrkfl

Hf,jxtq uheggs VU"BR gj yfexyjq jwtyrt> 1990 u.!yf fyukbqcrjv> bcgfycrjv> rbnfqcrjv> heccrjv b ahfywepcrjvzpsrf[@.

b) BPVTYTYBT RKBVFNF — Jwtyrf djpltqcndbq. Ljrkfl Hf,jxtquheggs VU"BR gj jwtyrt djpltqcndbq> 1990 u.!yf fyukbqcrjv> bcgfycrjv> rbnfqcrjv> heccrjv b ahfywepcrjv zpsrf[@.

c) BPVTYTYBT RKBVFNF — Cnhfntubb htfubhjdfybz. Ljrkfl Hf,j-xtq uheggs VU"BR gj cnhfntubzv htfubhjdfybz> 1990 u.!yf fyukbqcrjv> bcgfycrjv> rbnfqcrjv> heccrjv b ahfywepcrjv zpsrf[@.

d) J,obq j,pjh b htp/vt lkz kbw> jghtltkz/ob[ gjkbnbre> 1990 u.

Emissions Scenarios (prepared by the IPCC Response StrategiesWorking Group), 1990 (Cwtyfhbb ds,hjcjd — gjlujnjdktyj Hf,jxtquheggjq VU"BR gj cnhfntubzv htfubhjdfybz).

Assessment of the Vulnerability of Coastal Areas to Sea Level Rise —A Common Methodology, 1991 !Jwtyrf ezpdbvjcnb ghb,ht;ys[ pjyr gjl(tve ehjdyz vjhz — j,ofz vtnjljkjubz@.

II. LJGJKYTYBT VU"BR> 1992 u.a) BPVTYTYBT RKBVFNF> 1992 u. — Ljgjkybntkmysq ljrkfl gj

yfexyjq jwtyrt VU"BR. Ljrkfl Hf,jxtq uheggs VU"BR gj yfexyjqjwtyrt> 1992 u.

b) BPVTYTYBT RKBVFNF> 1992 u. — Ljgjkybntkmysq ljrkfl j,jwtyrt djpltqcndbq VU"BR. Ljrkfl Hf,jxtq uheggs VU"BR gjjwtyrt djpltqcndbq> 1990 u.

c) BPVTYTYBT RKBVFNF% jwtyrb VU"BR 1990 b 1992 uu. J,-ott htp/vt b htp/vt lkz kbw> jghtltkz/ob[ gjkbnbre> Gthdjujljrkflf VU"BR c jwtyrfvb> f nfr;t ljgjkytybt VU"BR pf 1992 u.!yf fyukbqcrjv> bcgfycrjv> rbnfqcrjv> heccrjv b ahfywepcrjv zpsrf[@.

Global Climate Change and the Rising Challenge of the Sea.Coastal Zone Management Subgroup of the IPCC Response StrategiesWorking Group, 1992 !Ukj,fkmyst bpvtytybz rkbvfnf b ghj,ktvsgjl(tvf ehjdyz vjhz. Gjluheggf gj eghfdktyb/ ghb,ht;ysvb pjyfvbHf,jxtq uheggs VU"BR gj cnhfntubzv htfubhjdfybz@.

Report of the IPCC Country Study Workshop, 1992 !Jnxtn yfexyj-ghfrnbxtcrjuj ctvbyfhf VU"BR gj cnhfyjdsv bccktljdfybzv@.

Preliminary Guidelines for Assessing Impacts of Climate Change,1992 !Ghtldfhbntkmyst herjdjlzobt ghbywbgs lkz jwtyrb djpltqcndbqbpvtytybz rkbvfnf@.

III. CGTWBFKMYSQ JNXTN VU"BR> 1994 u.a) Herjdjlzobt ghbywbgs VU"BR gj cjcnfdktyb/ yfwbjyfkmys[

rflfcnhjd gfhybrjds[ ufpjd !3 njvf@> 1994 u.!yf fyukbqcrjv> bcgfycrjv> heccrjv b ahfywepcrjv zpsrf[@.

b) Nt[ybxtcrbt herjdjlzobt ghbywbgs VU"BR lkz jwtyrb djpltqcn-dbq bpvtytybz rkbvfnf b flfgnfwbb> 1994 u. !yf fyukbqcrjv> fhf,crjv> bcgfycrjv> rbnfqcrjv> heccrjv b ahfywepc-rjv zpsrf[@.

c) BPVTYTYBT RKBVFNF> 1994 u. — Hflbfwbjyyjt djpltqcndbtbpvtytybz rkbvfnf b jwtyrf VU"BR IS92 cwtyfhbtd ds,hjcjd.

IV. DNJHJQ LJRKFL B JWTYRB VU"BR> 1995 u.a) BPVTYTYBT RKBVFNF> 1995 u. — Yfexyst fcgtrns bpvtytybz

rkbvfnf. !Drk/xfz htp/vt lkz kbw> jghtltkz/ob[ gjkbnbre@. LjrkflHf,jxtq uheggs I VU"BR, 1995 u.

b) BPVTYTYBT RKBVFNF> 1995 u. — Yfexyj-nt[ybxtcrbt fyfkbpsdjpltqcndbq bpvtytybz rkbvfnf> flfgnfwbb r ytve b cvzuxtybz tujgjcktlcndbq. !Drk/xfz htp/vt lkz kbw> jghtltkz/ob[ gjkbnbre@.Ljrkfl Hf,jxtq uheggs II VU"BR> 1995 u.

c) BPVTYTYBT RKBVFNF> 1995 u. — Cjwbfkmyj-'rjyjvbxtcrbtfcgtrns bpvtytybz rkbvfnf. !Drk/xfz htp/vt lkz kbw> jghtlt-kz/ob[ gjkbnbre@. Ljrkfl Hf,jxtq uheggs III VU"BR> 1995 u.

d) Cbyntp yfexyj-nt[ybxtcrjq byajhvfwbb> cjlth;fotqcz dj Dnjhjvljrkflt j, jwtyrf[ VU"BR> gj djghjce j, bynthghtnfwbb cnfnmb2 Hfvjxyjq rjydtywbb JJY j, bpvtytybb rkbvfnf> 1995 u.

!Ghjcbv bvtnm d dble> xnj Cbyntp VU"BR b nhb htp/vt lkz kbw>jghtltkz/ob[ gjkbnbre> jge,kbrjdfys d tlbyjv njvt b bvt/ncz yffyukbqcrjv> fhf,crjv> bcgfycrjv> rbnfqcrjv> heccrjv b ahfywepcrjvzpsrf[@.

V. CGTWBFKMYSQ JNXTN VU"BR, 1996 u.Revised 1996 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse GasInventories (3 volumes), 1996. !Gthtcvjnhtyyst d 1996 ujleHerjdjlzobt ghbywbgs VU"BR gj cjcnfdktyb/ yfwbjyfkmys[ rflfcnhjdgfhybrjds[ ufpjd !3 njvf@> 1996 u.@

VI. NT{YBXTCRBT LJREVTYNS VU"BRTechnologies, Policies and Measures for Mitigating ClimateChange — IPCC Technical Paper 1, 1996. !Nt[yjkjubb> gjkbnbrf bvths> yfghfdktyyst yf cvzuxtybt gjcktlcndbq bpvtytybz rkbvfnf —Nt[ybxtcrbq ljrevtyn 1 VU"BR> 1996 u.@(yf fyukbqcrjv> bcgfycrjv b ahfywepcrjv zpsrf[)

An Introduction to Simple Climate Models used in the IPCCSecond Assessment Report — IPCC Technical Paper 2, 1997.!Ddtltybt r ghjcnsv rkbvfnbxtcrbv vjltkzv> bcgjkmpjdfyysv dj Dnjhjvljrkflt VU"BR j, jwtyrf[ — Nt[ybxtcrbq ljrevtyn 2 VU"BR> 1997 u.@ (yf fyukbqcrjv> bcgfycrjv b ahfywepcrjv zpsrf[)

Stabilization of Atmospheric Greenhouse Gases: Physical,Biological and Socio-economic Implications — IPCC TechnicalPaper 3, 1997. !Cnf,bkbpfwbz fnvjcathys[ gfhybrjds[ ufpjd% abpbxtcrbt>,bjkjubxtcrbt b cjwbfkmyj-'rjyjvbxtcrbt gjcktlcndbz — Nt[ybxtcrbqljrevtyn 3 VU"BR, 1997 u.@(yf fyukbqcrjv> bcgfycrjv b ahfywepcrjv zpsrf[)

Implications of Proposed CO2 Emissions Limitations — IPCCTechnical Paper 4, 1997. !Gjcktlcndbz ghtlkj;tyys[ juhfybxtybq'vbccbb CO2 — Nt[ybxtcrbq ljrevtyn 4 VU"BR, 1997 u.@(yf fyukbqcrjv> bcgfycrjv b ahfywepcrjv zpsrf[)

VII. CGTWBFKMYSQ JNXTN VU"BR> 1997 u.Gjcktlcndbz bpvtytybz rkbvfnf lkz htubjyjd% jwtyrf ezpdbvjcnb(Drk/xfz htp/vt lkz kbw> jghtltkz/ob[ gjkbnbre) Cgtwbfkmysq ljrkflHf,jxtq uheggs II VU"BR, 1997 u.

GTHTXTYM VFNTHBFKKJD> DSGEOTYYS{ VU"BR