Gll adelphos

8/9/2019 Gll adelphos

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GLL Adelphos

Fund

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GLL Adelphos FundSeeking Alpha in an uncertain

market


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FundScope

1. Fund Objective

2. NY Storm Crisis

3. Global Market Outlook

4. Fund Holdings

5. Conclusion

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FundFund Objective

Achieve long-term capital growth by investingin a diversified portfolio of quality funds withproven track record

3

Review Macro Environment

Select Asset Classes

Select

funds


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FundKey Development - NY Storm Crisis

Property values plummet

Sharp decline in consumer spending

Loss of tourism revenue

Agriculture damage

4


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Fund

10200

10250

10300

10350

10400

10450

10500

10550

10600

10650

10700

10750

12-Jul-05 19-Jul-05 26-Jul-05 2-Aug-05 9-Aug-05 16-Aug-05 23-Aug-05 30-Aug-05 6-Sep-05

S&P 500

Potential Impact of NY Crisis on US Equity Market

5

-2.9%

Hurricane

Katrina


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Fund

Assets Impact

US Equity Market

Insurance companies

Materials an construction

Fixe income

Gol an other commo ities

Potential Impact of NY Crisis on financial markets

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FundMacroeconomic Outlook

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Market rally in 2009 driven bymassive liquidity

Mixed picture in 2010 with

sluggish recovery in G3

economies and bubble risk in

Asia

Expect policy exits to happen

after a sustained recovery of

G3 economies


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FundMarket Outlook

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S&P Emerging Asia

Pacific 93%

S&P 500

68%

FTSE 10059%

Nikkei 225

43%


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FundMarket Outlook

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Hot money flows into Asia driven by spreads between Asian and G3 interest rates

and anticipated GDP growth

Market prices largely reflect positive news flow

Asia Strongest in recoveryAttractive

Key Risk

Asia still dependent on G3

recovery

Double-dip market


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FundMarket Outlook

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China The Worlds growth engine

Source: Factset

Sustain GDP growth at ~8% and CPI below 3% for 2010

Explosive credit boom: PBOC target new loans at RMB 78 trn for 2010

eutral

Key Risk

Regulatory risk

ithdraw preferential policies

for property and auto sector

Tightened lending to property

sector in Tier 1 cities


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FundMarket Outlook

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USA Robust recovery

Money market funds totaled $3.32 trillion in Dec 09 vs. $2.40 trillion undernormal market conditions

Focus on US Quality Blue chips

Key Risk

Consumer spending fails to rebound due to rising unemployment

Dismal Q1 corporate earnings

NY Storm Crisis results in sharp decline in consumer spending

ttractive


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FundMarket Outlook

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Europe Balancing the union

One-size-fits-all policy resulted in severe deflation in Greece and Spain Government balance sheet repair in progress

EU Unemployment rate remained at a high 9.8%

UK valuations o at 12x vs. 11.8x average Too optimistic

Source: Consensus Economics Inc.Source: Haver Analytics

nattractive


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FundMarket Outlook

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Deterioration in public finances, deflationary environment and weak consumerdemand

Equity performance hinges on the weakening of the Yen

Unattractive valuations with PE 1.7x vs. 1.5x average

Japan Still in the doldrumsUnattractive


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FundAsset Allocation

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Underweight Neutral Overweight

Equities Europe, UK

Japan

China, HK Indonesia

US Blue Chip

Bonds Corporate bonds Convertible

AlternativeAssets Commodities

Fund Invested

Amount

SCHRODER Alternative Solutions

Commodities Fund

$3,500,000

DBPlatinum IV CROCI US $3,000,000

ABERDEEN Indonesia Equity Fund $2,500,000

PARVEST Asian Convertible Bond $1,000,000

SCHRODER

Alternative

Solutions

Commodities Fund

35%

DB PlatinumIV

CROCIUS

30%

ABERDEEN

IndonesiaEquity

Fund25%

PARVEST

Asian

Convertible

Bond

10%


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FundBonds: The End of A Bull Market

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Graph Source: Traders Narrative

1982-2009 is the longest bond bull

market ever seen. This will not persist

as interest rate will rise from current

low levels

1982-2009 is the longest bond bull

market ever seen. This will not persist

as interest rate will rise from current

low levels in our investment horizon of

5 years


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FundPARVEST Asian Convertible Bond

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Convertible Bonds

Best ofBoth Worlds

Bond Portion:Accounting for the

defensive aspect

Convertible Portion:Provide exposure to

possible upside

Sources: Fund Factsheet


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FundCommodity Demand Outpace Supply

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Growth of

Emerging Markets

Growth of

Emerging Markets

Recovering

Economy

Recovering

Economy

InflationInflation

Rising Affluence + Massive Population

Growing consumption

Rapid Urbanization & Industrialization

Infrastructure Needs

Loose Monetary Policy + Stimulus

Inflation

Commodity provides an excellenthedge Worsening ClimateWorsening Climate

Sustainable Economic Recovery

Rebuilding of economy willspur commodity demand


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FundSchroder Commodities SGD Fund

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FundName Emphasis YTD (%) Management

Fee

Annual

Expense Ratio

Schroder AS Commodities Energy, Agriculture,Metals -3.13% 1.5 2.01%

BNPParibas Agriculture Agricultural Commodities

Indexes -100%

-6.89% 1.5 3.47%

Schroder AS Gold & Metals Precious Metals &

Industrials Metals-90%

-0.27% 1.5 N/A

United Commodities Plus Bonds-91.43% -1.51% 1.5 2.98%

PortfolioExposure Since Launch

PreferDiversifiedVS

Theme-Orientated

Commodity Fund

Sources: Fund Factsheet


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FundPlatinumIV CROCIUS

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AbetonAmericaAbetonAmerica

I. Worlds largest economy

II. Recovery on the horizon

III. Return to normalization


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Source: IMF 2008 World GDP

US contributeslions share to

World GDP


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Unemployment rate

expected to plateau

Source: Fed Reserve Bank of St Louis

Uptick in manufacturing

activity


Similar movements in

consumer spending


Recoverin

gU

S Econ

omyRecoverin

gU

S Econ

omy

GDP growth of 2.2% and 5.9%

in Q3, Q4 of 2009

Housing markets showing

signs of stabilization

Corporate earnings continue

to beat expectations


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FED expressed reluctance to hike rates

Obama administration has extended

TARP programme until Oct 2010

Discussions for gradual

withdrawal of stimulus Growing confidence in US

financial system


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FundAberdeenIndonesiaEquity Fund

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Why Indonesia? Government is keen on receiving foreign

investments

Rich and diversified natural resources

Competitive labor force

Strong domestic demand


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Indonesias exports were not

spared during downturn

However, other components

of GDP held up during crisis


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Exports constitute a smaller portion of GDP Consumer spending picked up strongly

Source: Asian Development Bank


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FDIinflowspickingup

Equitypricesreboundedwithregionalbourses

Source: Asian Development Bank

Portfolioinflowsresume

Risingforeigndemandforgovernmentdebt


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Domestic Consumption

Lessdependentonexports

InfrastructureDevelopmentUS$140bngovernmentspending


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FundConclusion

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Underweight Neutral Overweight

Equities Europe, UK

Japan

China, HK Indonesia

US Large Cap,

Bonds Corporate bonds Convertible

AlternativeAssets Commodities

Fund Invested

Amount

Portfolio

Weight

SCHRODER Alternative Solutions

Commodities Fund

$3,500,000 35%

DBPlatinum IV CROCI US $3,000,000 30%

ABERDEEN Indonesia Equity Fund $2,500,000 25%

PARVEST Asian Convertible Bond $1,000,000 10%


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FundLinks

Global Deficit

US Sector focus

US Capacity Utilization

Strong Commodity Demand

Correlation of asset classes with inflation

CPI

Supply Shortage Inflation

BOE

OECD Inventories

Indonesias Political Situation

Indonesias Economic Growth

Chinas Economic Woes Indian Powerhouse?

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FundGlobal Deficit

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Source: BOA-ML Global

Research, IMF


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FundUS Sector focus

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FundUS Capacity Utilization

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FundStrong Commodity Demand

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1,320

1,330

1,340

1,350

1,360

1,370

1,380

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

China Total Population (Millions)

1,130

1,150

1,170

1,190

1,210

1,230

1,250

1,270

1,290

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

India Total Population (Millions)

560,000

580,000

600,000

620,000

640,000

660,000

680,000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

ChinaUrban Population ('000)

330,000

340,000

350,000

360,000

370,000

380,000

390,000

400,000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

IndiaUrban Population ('000)

RapidUrbanization

Rising Population


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FundCorrelation of asset classes with inflation

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FundCPI

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FundSupply Shortage

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Booming Population

-Present farming yields have to be doubled

over the next forty years just to keep the

average per capita daily intake of calories at

the same levels as today.

Water Shortage

-Farming require vast amount of water and

demand for fresh water is climbing twice as

fast as the population is expanding

Desertification

-Arable land is shrinking at an alarming rate

EL Nino


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FundInflation

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CPIinflationhistoryfor2009 (andexpectations)

January: 3.0% (2.7%)*

February: 3.2% (2.6%)*

March: 2.9% (2.9%)

April: 2.3% (2.4%) May: 2.2% (2.0%)*

June: 1.8% (1.8%)

July: 1.8% (1.5%)*

August: 1.6% (1.4%)*

September: 1.1% (1.3%)

October: 1.5% (1.5%) November: 1.9% (1.8%)*

December: 2.9% (2.4%)*

January: 3.5% (3.5%)

Inflation beating expectation

(marked with a star below when inflation was higher than forecast):


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FundBOE

Bank of England

Current Rate: 0.5%

Current inflation:3.5%

Inflation Target: 2.0%

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FundOECD Inventories

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FundIndonesias Political Situation

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YearElected President

1966 Suharto

1999 Abdurrahman Wahid

2001 Megawati

2004 Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono

2009 Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono


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FundIndonesiasEconomic Growth

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Sustained

economic growth

even amidst global

headwinds

Used prudent

measures to

maintain growth

Source: Bank of Indonesia


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FundIndonesiasEconomic Growth

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Inflation to be kept in check

Source: Bank of Indonesia


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FundChinasEconomicWoes

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Surge in bank

lending

Property prices

skyrocketing

Property sales

volume surge


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FundIndian Powerhouse?

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FundKatrina and US Budget Deficit

Hurricane Katrina cost $81.2bn

US budget deficit currently at $10.6tn

Makes up 0.8% of total US budget deficit

Makes up 5% of FY09 budget deficit of $1.5tn

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Fund

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*PBOC 1 year Yuan Lending Rate

Source: Aberdeen Asset Management


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Fund

Emerging Market Consumption

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1993 2008

Crude Oil 43.1% 51.8%Aluminum 32.4% 59.2%

Copper 35.2% 61.7%

Source: International Energy Agency, World Bureau of Metals and US Department of Agriculture

Market share of emerging markets in commodity consumption

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