Global Agricultural Monitoring to support adaptationinfosiap.siap.gob.mx/opt/foroexpectativas/presentaciones...XII Foro de Expectativas del Sector Agroalimentario y Pesquero 2012 El

XII Foro de Expectativas del Sector Agroalimentario y Pesquero 2012

El desafío de alimentar a México y el mundo , Mexico 2012 March 22-23

El cambio de clima y la producción agropecuaria

Global Agricultural Monitoring

to support adaptation

Pascal Kosuth,

for the GEOGLAM group and GEO Agriculture Community of Practice

Cereal grain production per hectare

(Source: SAGE, Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, Wisc., USA)



1. Climate change and its impact on agriculture

1. Measuring; Understanding, Modelling; Forecasting

2. A case study : sanitary risk

2. The GEOGLAM initiative : Global Agricultural Monitoring

2



An international effort to understand and forecast climate

change

Forecasted impact of climate change on rainfed cereal potential production

(source FAO, 2008)

IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

A two-dimension entity :

- scientific (>3000 scientists designed by govts)

- and political (intergovernmental)

that provides 5 year reports (1990, 1995, 2001,

2007) on our knowledge of climate evolution

under various scenarios related with Green House

Gaz emission



1. Measuring Temperature and carbon dioxide

Globally averaged surface air temperature and carbon dioxide

concentration (parts per million by volume) since 1880 (Updated from

Karl and Trenberth, 2003)



1. Measuring Green House Gaz atmospheric

concentrations

Changes in atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide, methane,

and nitrous oxide since 1000 A.D. (from IPCC, 2001)



1. Measuring cropping calendar evolution (ex. Wine harv. date -

Rhône, Fr)

One month advance in 50 years,

Alcohol rate increase; migration northward



2. Understanding and Modeling the Climate System

A complex system :

• Components : sun, atmosphere, ocean,

cryosphere, land, biosphere, man

• Retroactions : ocean inertia, icesheet

inertia, vegetation response

• Uncertainties : evolution of Green

House Gaz emission rates; role of clouds

and aerosols

A rigorous scientific approach for

modelling scenarios : various modelling

groups




(1) A Global (planet scale) approach :

• Grid representation of the planet

• Submodels per component (atmosph.,

ocean, cryosphere, land and biosphere)

• Coupling sub-models (retroactions)

• Forcing scenarios




(1) A Global (planet scale) approach :

• Grid representation of the planet

• Submodels per component (atmosph.,

ocean, cryosphere, land and biosphere)

• Coupling sub-models (retroactions)

• Forcing scenarios

(2) Regional approaches :

• Fine scale models

• Regional scenarios

Modelling past period and future period



3. Forecasting impacts : mean temperature increase



Source : IFPRI 2009 Changement climatique, impact sur l’agriculture et coûts d’adaptation

2000-2050 Climate Projections

(NCAR – USA; CSIRO-Australia) with

Green House Gaz emission

scenarios (IPCC A2 scenario)

Temperature

Mexico

Temperature increase +2°C

Precipitation decrease -100mm/year



Source : IFPRI 2009 Changement climatique, impact sur l’agriculture et coûts d’adaptation

2000-2050 Climate Projections

(NCAR – USA; CSIRO-Australia) with

Green House Gaz emission

scenarios (IPCC A2 scenario)

Precipitations

Mexico

Temperature increase +2°C

Precipitation decrease -100mm/year



3. Forecasting impacts : rainfall variability


(source FAO, 2008)



3. Forecasting impacts : crop production


(source FAO, 2008)




1. Measuring; Understanding, Modelling; Forecasting

2. A case study : sanitary risk


15



H. Guis, C. Caminade, C. Calvete, A. Morse, F. Roger, M. Baylis

SExES, CIRAD, Montpellier, 17/09/2009

3. Forecasting impacts : sanitary risk

Mapping the effects of climate change on bluetongue transmission in Europe



• Massive emergence in Europe in the last 10 years in Europe:- Different (9) serotypes of virus- Different vectors, both exotic and local

Source: European Commission, May 2009

Bluetongue: an emerging disease in Europe

• Historically a tropical disease

- Historical distribution: 35 °S - 40 °N

Area of circulation of BTV before 1998

Presence of Culicoides imicola before 1998

Adapted from Purse B.V. et al. 2005

40° N

35° S

C. imicolaBTV1,2,4,9,16

sheep

Vectors ? Obsoletus gp?

BTV 8, 6, 1 Cattle & sheep

Bluetongue: arboviral disease of ruminants transmitted by some species of Culicoides

Suspected links with Climate Change : are we able to identify ? to forecast ?



Climate and vector-borne diseases

Vector-borne disease (disease transmitted by blood-sucking arthropod): 3 actors, all under influence of climate

Growth rate

Survival

Distribution

Life habits

Development rate

Survival

Activity (thus contact rates)

Length of gonotrophic cycle

Vector competence

Survival

Replication rate

Climate affects:

Climate?

• Temperature

• Humidity/Rain

• Wind

• Soil moisture

• Variability

• … ???

pathogen

vector

host



Modelling “installation risk” : R0 indicator

• R0 models for vector-borne diseases : risk of installation

What is the risk of secondary cases arising from the introduction of an infected individual in a fully susceptible population ?




• R0 models for vector-borne diseases

1


Vector contaminationDuration of viraemia in host (1/r)Ratio vector/host (m)Biting rate (a)

1





1 2



1

Vector competenceCompetence (c)Survival (p) during theLength of extrinsic incubation period (n)

2






1


2

Transmission to new hostSurvival (p)Biting rate (a)

3

1 2 3






m: ratio vectors to host

a: biting rate

b: vector competence

p: daily survival rate

n: extrinsic incubation period

r:1/duration of viraemia in host

)ln(

p b a² mR0

n

pr


1


2

Transmission to new hostSurvival (p)Biting rate (a)

3

1 2 3







a: biting rate





)ln(

p b a² mR0

n

pr

1 2 3


Statistical models of presence and

abundance of C. imicola and C.

obsoletus

(temperature & precipitation related)

(C. Calvete)






a: biting rate





)ln(

p b a² mR0

n

pr

1 2 3


Lab based

studies : relation

between vector

parameters and

Temperature






a: biting rate





)ln(

p b a² mR0

n

pr

1 2 3


Can we map risk indicators from environmental data and climatic data (Temp., precipitations)



R0 past anomalies (Observed climate)

R0 relative anomalies (relative to 1961 – 1999 climatology)

Global increasing north-south gradient

Northwest at risk



R0 past anomalies (Observed climate)

R0 relative anomalies (relative to 1961 – 2006 climatology)

Global increasing north-south gradient

Northwest at risk 15 years before virus was introduced (2006)



Future anomalies (2011-2030) : SRESA1B

R0 relative anomalies in future and trends

Global trends: positive anomalies, especially in northern Europe



Conclusion


(source FAO, 2008)

(1) Climate change strongly affects not only the

water cycle and carbon cycle

(2) Climate change strongly affects biosphere and

human activity

(3) There is a strong need for an international

effort to monitor, understand and forecast

climate change and its impact

(4) There is a need for political commitment to

mitigation and adaptation efforts




• Measuring

• Understanding, modelling

• Forecasting

• Acting for mitigation


33



© GEO Secretariat

IKONOS

QuickBird

SPIN-2

SPOT 4, 5

EROS A1

EnvisatEnvisat

Aura/Aqua/TerraAura/Aqua/Terra

GraceGrace

QuikScatQuikScatSageSage

SeaWindsSeaWindsTRMMTRMM

Toms-EP

UARSUARS

Landsat 7Landsat 7

SORCESORCE

ACRIMSAT

CBERS

SeaWiFSSeaWiFS

ERBSERBS

JasonJason

Orbview 2, 3

Radarsat ALOS

DMC

GEO-GLAM

GLOBAL AGRICULTURAL MONITORING

Pascal Kosuth,

for the GEOGLAM group and GEO Agriculture Community of Practice




To reinforce the international community’s capacity to produce and disseminate relevant, timely and accurate forecasts of agricultural production at national, regional and global scales.

© GEO Secretariat

IKONOS

QuickBird

SPIN-2

SPOT 4, 5

EROS A1

EnvisatEnvisat


GraceGrace



Toms-EP

UARSUARS

Landsat 7Landsat 7

SORCESORCE

ACRIMSAT

CBERS

SeaWiFSSeaWiFS

ERBSERBS

JasonJason

Orbview 2, 3

Radarsat ALOS

DMC

Earth

Observation

© GEO Secretariat

IKONOS

QuickBird

SPIN-2

SPOT 4, 5

EROS A1

EnvisatEnvisat


GraceGrace



Toms-EP

UARSUARS

Landsat 7Landsat 7

SORCESORCE

ACRIMSAT

CBERS

SeaWiFSSeaWiFS

ERBSERBS

JasonJason

Orbview 2, 3

Radarsat ALOS

DMC

Earth

Observation

Earth

Observation

MeteorologyMeteorologyMeteorology

Agronomy

Agro-economy

Agronomy

Agro-economy

Agronomy

Agro-economy



Cultivated area / crop type area

Crop yield forecast

1. The GEO-GLAM Initiative : objectives

35


1. The GEO-GLAM Initiative : background (G20 2011)

36


G20 Final Declaration (nov. 2011)

44. We commit to improve market information and transparency in order to make international markets for agricultural commodities more effective. To that end, we launched:

• The "Agricultural Market Information System" (AMIS) in Rome on September 15, 2011, to improve information on markets ...;

• The "Global Agricultural Geo-monitoring Initiative" (GEOGLAM) in Geneva on September 22-23, 2011, to coordinate satellite monitoring observation systems … to enhance crop production projections ...

1. The GEO-GLAM Initiative : background (G20 2011)

37


Trade

Demand

Stocks

Price

Supply

Policies

Finance

GEOGLAM

AMIS

38

International effort to

increase information availability,

quality and transparency

4. Linking and



Normalized difference vegetation index over Pakistan August 3, 2011 (FAO)


Action 1. Global and regional agricultural monitoring Systems Harmonizing, connecting, strengthening inter-comparing existing

systems, disseminating information.

Action 2. Strengthening national capacities for agric. monitoringcapacity development for the use of EO, experience sharing,

research

Action 3. At risk regions and countries agricultural monitoring Improving monitoring methods, tools and systems for vulnerable

agricultural systems

Action 4. Global Earth observation system of systems for agricult.

Developing a coordinated operational system : satellite and in-situ ;

Actions 5 and 6 : Research Coordination + Inform. dissemination

Long term commitment. Full and open data policy.

2. The GEO-GLAM Initiative : actions and outputs

40


Deliverable 1 : Access to Earth Observation data for agriculture

monitoring

Deliverable 2 : Access to Meteorological data and forecasts

Deliverable 3 : Cultivated areas, crop-type distribution, crop yield

forecasts

Deliverable 4 : Improved monitoring methods

Deliverable 5 : Strengthened national agricultural monitoring capacities

Deliverable 6 : Dissemination of data to stakeholders;

Deliverable 7 : A sustained Earth observation system of systems for

agricultural monitoring,

2. The GEO-GLAM Initiative : actions and outputs

41


National

Capacity for

Agricultural

Monitoring

Enhancing

Global Agricultural

Monitoring

Systems

Agriculture

Monitoring for countries at risk

Coordinated Satellite and In-Situ Earth Observations

Data, products and information DisseminationCondition/Area/ Yield / Statistics

Operational Research and Development Data/Techniques/Methods/Best Practices

FAO StatAMISPublic Govts

3. The GEO-GLAM Initiative : Components

42

1 32

Earth Observations

Satellite / Ground Data /

Models

Meteorological

Expertise and

Info

Agricultural Expertise

4

5

6


Key actors of the Initiative :

International entities : GEO, FAO, WMO, CEOS, CGIAR

Operational actors : GEO Agriculture Community of Practice

Regional and National organisations

Private actors, NGOs

5. The GEO-GLAM Initiative : Status and agenda

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

2011 2012

43


Jan.- May 2011 : Initial design in the framework of G20 priorities

June 2011 : Adoption by G20 Agriculture Action Plan

Sept. 2011 : International GEO-GLAM meeting at GEO Geneva

Nov. 2011 : G20 Final Declaration (GEO-GLAM art. 44)

Nov. 2011 : Presentation at GEO VIII Plenary (90 countries, 60 inst.)

Nov.11 – Feb. 2012 : Detailed action plan and budget + Governance scheme

+ Linkage with AMIS

March – June 2012 : Governance definition and approval

Linkage with G20 Mexican presidency

Securing funds for implementation

Informing national and international actors

July 2012 on … : Implementation

5. The GEO-GLAM Initiative : Status and agenda

44

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

2011 2012

Intercomparison of global products; JECAM;

EO data access; Capacity building modules


GEO-GLAM

GLOBAL AGRICULTURAL MONITORING

Thank you for your attention

45

Documents

Global Agricultural Monitoring to support adaptationinfosiap.siap.gob.mx/opt/foroexpectativas/presentaciones...XII Foro de Expectativas del Sector Agroalimentario y Pesquero 2012 El