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© 2013 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. 1 © 2013 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. © 2013 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
Global and ANZ IP Data Trends: Drivers of Change Impacting the Network
Dr. Robert Pepper Vice President Global Technology Policy Cisco Live ANZ – IT Executive Symposium 5 March 2013
© 2013 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. 2
Agenda
Drivers of Change on the Mobile Network
Cloud Infrastructure and Advanced Apps
Implications for Business and Government
© 2013 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. 3
Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Expanding the Scope of Cisco’s IP Thought Leadership Cisco® VNI Forecast research is an ongoing initiative to predict global traffic growth. This study focuses on consumer and business mobile data traffic and its key drivers.
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2012–2017
Global Mobile Speed Data
Global Forecast Data
© 2013 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. 4
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Exab
ytes
per
Mon
th
7.4 EB
0.9 EB
Global Mobile Data Traffic Growth / Top-Line Global Mobile Data Traffic will Increase 13X from 2012 to 2017
11.2 EB
4.7 EB
2.8 EB
1.6 EB
66% CAGR 2012–2017
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2012–2017
© 2013 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. 5
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Exab
ytes
per
Mon
th
3.4 EB
0.3 EB
APAC Mobile Data Traffic Growth / Top-Line APAC Mobile Data Traffic will Increase 17X from 2012 to 2017
5.3 EB
2.1 EB
1.2 EB
0.6 EB
76% CAGR 2012–2017
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2012–2017
© 2013 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. 6
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Exab
ytes
per
Mon
th
Latin America (LATAM)Central and Eastern Europe (CEE)Middle East and Africa (MEA)Western Europe (WE)North America (NA)Asia Pacific (APAC)
Global Mobile Data Traffic Growth / Regions MEA has the Highest Growth Rate (77%) from 2012–2017 APAC will Generate 47% of all Mobile Data Traffic by 2017
18.7%
47.1%
12.4%
7.6% 6.5%
7.7%
66% CAGR 2012–2017
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2012–2017
© 2013 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. 7
42.2
32.7
43.1
33.9
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
IP Traffic in 2012 Internet & Mobile Traffic in 2012
Exab
ytes
per
mon
th
Projected in 2009Actual
VNI Projections and Actuals (Global) Actual Growth Has Been Within 10% of Projected Growth
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2012–2017
© 2013 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. 8
Global Mobile Data Traffic Drivers
More Mobile Users
Faster Mobile Speeds
More Mobile Connections
More Mobile Video
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2012–2017
© 2013 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. 9
Top Trends
© 2013 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. 10
VNI Mobile Forecast Update, 2012–2017 Top 5 Mobile Networking Trends
Device Diversification
Impact of 4G Connections on Traffic
Traffic Offload from Mobile Networks to Fixed Networks
The (Mobile) Internet of Things
Cloud readiness
© 2013 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. 11
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Bill
ions
of D
evic
es
Other Portable Devices (.9%)Tablets (2.3%)Laptops (2.6%)M2M (16.5%)Smartphones (27.4%)Non-Smartphones (50.3%)
Global Mobile Device Growth by Type By 2017, Smartphones Will Gain 11 Points to Reach 27% Share
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2012–2017
8% CAGR 2012–2017
Figures (n) refer to 2017 device share
© 2013 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. 12
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Mill
ions
of D
evic
es
Other Portable Devices (.3%)Tablets (5.0%)Laptops (13.0%)M2M (28.0%)Smartphones (51.3%)Non-Smartphones (2.4%)
Australia Mobile Device Growth by Type By 2017, Smartphones Will Reach 51% Share
Figures (n) refer to 2017 device share
8% CAGR 2012–2017
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2012–2017
© 2013 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. 13
Average Traffic Per Mobile Device Type
Non-Smartphone
2017 2012
6.8 31
MBs per Month MBs per Month
M2M 64 330
Smartphone 342 2,660
4G Smartphone 1,302 5,114
Tablet 820 5,387
Laptop 2,503 5,731
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2012–2017
© 2013 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. 14
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Exab
ytes
per
Mon
th
Other Portable Devices (2.2%)M2M (4.7%)Home Gateways (4.8%)Non-Smartphones (5.7%)Tablets (10.0%)Laptops and Netbooks (24.2%)Smartphones (48.3%)
Global Mobile Data Traffic Growth by Device
Source: Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2011–2016
(Figures in legend refer to traffic share in
2016.)
78% CAGR 2011–2016
2012 FORECAST
© 2013 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. 15
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Exab
ytes
per
Mon
th
Other Portable Devices (.2%)Non-Smartphones (1.4%)M2M (5.1%)Tablets (11.7%)Laptops (14.0%)Smartphones (67.5%)
Global Mobile Data Traffic Growth by Device In 2013, Smartphone Traffic Surpass Mobile Laptop Traffic
Figures (n) refer to 2017 device share
66% CAGR 2012–2017
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2012–2017
© 2013 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. 16
0.00
0.01
0.02
0.03
0.04
0.05
0.06
0.07
0.08
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Exab
ytes
per
Mon
th
Other Portable Devices (.1%)Non-Smartphones (.1%)M2M (8.3%)Tablets (13.7%)Laptops (39.5%)Smartphones (38.3%)
Australia Mobile Data Traffic Growth by Device
Figures (n) refer to 2017 device share
43% CAGR 2012–2017
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2012–2017
© 2013 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. 17
0.000
0.002
0.004
0.006
0.008
0.010
0.012
0.014
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Exab
ytes
per
Mon
th
Other Portable Devices (.1%)Non-Smartphones (.4%)M2M (7.5%)Tablets (10.4%)Laptops (20.8%)Smartphones (60.8%)
New Zealand Mobile Data Traffic Growth by Device
Figures (n) refer to 2017 device share
50% CAGR 2012–2017
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2012–2017
© 2013 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. 18
VNI Mobile Forecast Update, 2012–2017 Top 5 Mobile Networking Trends
Device Diversification
Impact of 4G Connections on Traffic
Traffic Offload from Mobile Networks to Fixed Networks
The (Mobile) Internet of Things
Cloud readiness
© 2013 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. 19
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Bill
ions
of D
evic
es o
r Con
nect
ions
4G3G2G
Global Connections by Network Type 2G, 3G, and 4G Technology Connection Share
57% 76%
23%
1%
33%
10%
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2012–2017
© 2013 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. 20
0
2
4
6
8
10
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Exab
ytes
per
Mon
th
2-2.5G3-3.5G4G
Global Mobile Data Traffic Growth: 4G 4G Will Be 10% of Connections and 45% of Traffic in 2017
14%
45%
51%
10% 76%
4%
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2012–2017
© 2013 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. 21
VNI Mobile Forecast Update, 2012–2017 Top 5 Mobile Networking Trends
Device Diversification
Impact of 4G Connections on Traffic
Traffic Offload from Mobile Networks to Fixed Networks
The (Mobile) Internet of Things
Cloud readiness
© 2013 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. 22
0.00
0.02
0.04
0.06
0.08
0.10
0.12
0.14
0.16
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Exab
ytes
per
Mon
th
Offload Traffic from Mobile Devices Cellular Traffic from Mobile Devices
Australia Mobile Data Traffic Offload 12% of Mobile Traffic to be Offloaded in 2016 5% of Mobile Traffic Offloaded in 2011
12%
88%
Source: Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2011–2016
2012 FORECAST
© 2013 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. 23
0.00
0.02
0.04
0.06
0.08
0.10
0.12
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Exab
ytes
per
Mon
th
Offload Traffic from Mobile Devices
Cellular Traffic from Mobile Devices
Australia Mobile Data Traffic Offload 26% of Mobile Traffic to be Offloaded in 2017 15% of Mobile Traffic Offloaded in 2012
26%
64%
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2012–2017
© 2013 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. 24
0
5
10
15
20
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Exab
ytes
per
Mon
th
Offload Traffic from Mobile Devices
Cellular Traffic from Mobile Devices
Global Mobile Data Traffic Offload 46% of Mobile Traffic to be Offloaded in 2017 33% of Mobile Traffic Offloaded in 2012
46%
54%
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2012–2017
© 2013 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. 25
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Exab
ytes
per
Mon
th
Offload Traffic from Mobile Devices
Cellular Traffic from Mobile Devices
US Mobile Data Traffic Offload 66% of Mobile Traffic to be Offloaded in 2017 47% of Mobile Traffic Offloaded in 2012
66%
34%
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2012–2017
© 2013 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. 26
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Peta
byte
s pe
r Mon
th
Mobile Data (70% CAGR)Fixed/Wired (20% CAGR)Fixed/Wi-Fi (34% CAGR)
Global IP Traffic by Local Access Technology By 2016, Fixed/Wi-Fi Traffic Surpasses Fixed/Wired Traffic
40%
53%
7%
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2011–2016
28% CAGR 2011–2016
© 2013 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. 27
VNI Mobile Forecast Update, 2012–2017 Top 5 Mobile Networking Trends
Device Diversification
Impact of 4G Connections on Traffic
Traffic Offload from Mobile Networks to Fixed Networks
The (Mobile) Internet of Things
Cloud readiness
© 2013 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. 28
By 2017, there will be 1.4 mobile connections (devices and M2M) for every member of the world’s population. North America has the most mobile connections per capita (2.2). The Middle East & Africa has the least (1.1).
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2012–2017
© 2013 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. 29
39
56
20 22
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Mill
ions
DevicesUsers
Australia Mobile Users and Devices Users Grow at 2% CAGR, Devices Grow at 8% CAGR 2.2 mobile connections/person
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2012–2017
© 2013 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. 30
VNI Mobile Forecast Update, 2012–2017 Top 5 Mobile Networking Trends
Device Diversification
Impact of 4G Connections on Traffic
Traffic Offload from Mobile Networks to Fixed Networks
The (Mobile) Internet of Things
Cloud Readiness
© 2013 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. 31
Implications for the Network:
The Importance of Cloud
© 2013 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. 32
74% 76% 78% 80% 82% 84%
26% 24% 22% 20% 18% 16%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017Mobile Cloud Traffic Mobile Non-Cloud Traffic
Global Mobile Cloud Traffic Cloud Accounted for 74% of Mobile Data Traffic in 2012 Cloud Will Account for 84% of Mobile Data Traffic by 2017
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2012–2017
© 2013 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. 33
Global Cloud Readiness Business & Consumer Network Requirements for Individual Apps
Basic Cloud Apps Network Requirements: Download Speed: Up to 750 kbps Upload Speed: Up to 250 kbps Latency: Above 160 ms
Intermediate Cloud Apps Network Requirements: Download Speed: 751–2,500 kbps Upload Speed: 251–1,000 kbps Latency: 159 - 100 ms
Advanced Cloud Apps Network Requirements: Download Speed: Higher than 2,500 kbps Upload Speed: Higher than 1,000 kbps Latency: Less than 100 ms
• Text communications (email, instant messaging)
• Web browsing • File sharing
(low-res video) • Web conferencing • Social networking
(basic text only) • Stream basic video/ music
• File sharing (high-res video) • IP Telephony • ERP / CRM • Basic gaming (single player) • Basic video chat
(low-res video) • IP audio conferencing • Basic video conferencing
(low-res video) • Advanced social networking
(multimedia/interactivity) • HD video streaming
• HD Industrial design collaboration • Advanced gaming
(multi player) • Advanced video chat
(high-res video) • Advanced file sharing
(super high-res video) • HD audio conferencing • HD video conferencing
(high-res video) • Stream super HD video
© 2013 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. 34
Global Cloud Readiness Business & Consumer Network Requirements for Concurrent Apps
Basic Cloud Apps Concurrency Bucket
Network Requirements: Download Speed: ~1900 kbps Upload Speed: ~600 kbps Latency: Above 160 ms
Intermediate Cloud Apps Concurrency Bucket
Network Requirements: Download Speed: ~7,000 kbps Upload Speed: ~2,600 kbps Latency: 159 - 100 ms
Advanced Cloud Apps Concurrency Bucket
Network Requirements: Download Speed: ~21,000 kbps Upload Speed: ~9,000 kbps Latency: Less than 100 ms
• Text communications (email, instant messaging)
• Web browsing • File sharing
(low-res video) • Web conferencing • Social networking
(basic text only) • Stream basic video/ music
• File sharing (high-res video) • IP Telephony • ERP / CRM • Basic gaming (single player) • Basic video chat
(low-res video) • IP audio conferencing • Basic video conferencing
(low-res video) • Advanced social networking
(multimedia/interactivity) • HD video streaming
• HD Industrial design collaboration • Advanced gaming
(multi player) • Advanced video chat
(high-res video) • Advanced file sharing
(super high-res video) • HD audio conferencing • HD video conferencing
(high-res video) • Stream super HD video
© 2013 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. 35
Fixed Speeds + Latency: Australia
Source: Ookla Speedtest.net Net Index
-
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
- 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000
Aver
age
Upl
oad
Spee
d (k
bps)
Average Download Speed (kbps)
Australia Ave download: 7.9mbps Ave upload: 1.2mbps Ave latency: 54ms
© 2013 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. 36
Fixed Speeds + Latency: New Zealand
Source: Ookla Speedtest.net Net Index
-
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
- 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000
Aver
age
Upl
oad
Spee
d (k
bps)
Average Download Speed (kbps)
New Zealand Ave download: 7.0mbps Ave upload: 1.3mbps Ave latency: 65ms
© 2013 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. 37
Mobile Networks Upload/ Download Speeds
Source: Ookla Speedtest.net Net Index
Singapore
Hong Kong
Japan
Australia Korea
Thailand
Taiwan
Malaysia Philippines
India
Indonesia
China
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000
Aver
age
Upl
oad
Spee
d (k
bps)
Average Download Speed (kbps)
Other Countries Asia Pacific
© 2013 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. 38
Mobile Speeds + Latency: APAC Countries
Source: Ookla Speedtest.net Net Index
Singapore
Hong Kong
Japan
Australia Korea
Thailand
Taiwan
Malaysia Philippines
India
Indonesia
China
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000
Aver
age
Upl
oad
Spee
d (k
bps)
Average Download Speed (kbps)
100ms - 159ms Above 160ms
© 2013 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. 39
Mobile Speeds + Latency: Australia
Source: Ookla Speedtest.net Net Index
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000
Aver
age
Upl
oad
Spee
d (k
bps)
Average Download Speed (kbps)
Australia Ave download: 2.9mbps Ave upload: 1.0mbps Ave latency: 161ms
© 2013 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. 40
Summary/Implications
© 2013 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. 41
Summary and Implications
More users, each using more bandwidth Each user will have more/more powerful devices Video and cloud driving demand and consumption 4G will dramatically increase data consumption Advanced Cloud Apps Required Advanced Networks Off-load increasingly important—small cell complement Need more Spectrum – Licensed and Unlicensed Need fibre for backhaul, middle mile and aggregation in access Networks becoming heterogeneous; need to be “fit for purpose”
© 2013 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. 42
Thank you.