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Copyright:

Produced by the Future Earth Media Lab for the Global Carbon Project. Written and edited by Corinne Le Quéré, Róisín Moriarty (Tyndall Centre, University of East Anglia), Owen Ga�ney. Design: Nigel Hawtin.

Global Carbon Budget 2015

Global emissions must quickly drop to zero to hold to 2°C

...though emissions are beginning to decline in many countries

You are here... ...a long way from near zero emissions...

India now faces a choice. It is about to develop rapidly. But will it do it on a low or high emissions pathway?

GtC

O2 p

er y

ear

After rising 6.7% per year for the previous decade, China’s emissions growth slowedto 1.2% in 2014 and is projected to decrease in 2015

High emissions leadingto dangerous warming

Country pledges for 2030

...only near zero emissions will stop this rise

Atmospheric CO2 levels

have reached 400 ppm...

Baseline

2°C

2015 projectedCO

2 emissions

CO

2 e

mis

sion

s (G

tCO

2/y

r)

0.9-2.3°C

1.7-3.2°C

2.0–3.7°C

3.2–5.4°Crelative to 1850–1900

2015Projection

Emissions from fossil fuels and industry grew +0.6% in 2014, and are projected to decline by –0.6% (–1.6 to +0.5) in 2015. �is marks a break in the rapid emissions growth of 2.4% of the previous decade

Our average per capita emissions are 4.9 tCO

2 each year

TurkeyAustraliaMexico BrazilSouth Korea Saudi Arabia Iran Indonesia

CanadaJapanRussia IndiaEuropean UnionUSA China South Africa

Decreasing emissions compatible with a 2°C warming limit

INDC pledges

Data: Scripps/NOAA-ESRL

Data: CDIAC/GCP

Data: CDIAC/GCP

Data: CDIAC/GCP

Data: CDIAC/GCP/IPCC/Fuss et al 2014

1960

315 ppm

2015

1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100−20

0

20

40

60

80

100

China’s decreased coal use largely accounts for the projected decline in emissions with slower growth in petroleum use and rapid growth in non-fossil energy sources

2011

36.0

35.5

35.0

34.5

34.0

2012 2013 2014

–0.6%(–1.6 to +0.5)

+0.6%

+2.4%

2015

CO

2 e

mis

sion

s (G

TC

O2/y

r)

2004-13 per year

2013-14

Emissions per capita

10

9

8

7

6

5

4

3

2

1

0

1

0

Much higher

Higher

Near average

Lower

Much lower

Credits: Jackson et al., Nature Climate Change 2015; Le Quéré et al. Earth System Science Data 2015; NOAA-ESRL and the Scripps Institution of Oceanography; CDIAC. INDC projection based on UNFCCC analysis.

1990

1990

2014

2014

2005

2005