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Global Carbon Observatory
Pep CanadellGCP-CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research
With contributions and thanks to:Philippe Ciais, David Crisp, Roger Dargaville,
Stephen Plummer, Michael Raupach
Integrated Global Carbon Observations - IGCO
Outline
1. Goals and Vision for a global C observatory
2. Major types of observations
3. Satellite observations• Carbon from space: OCO, GOSAT
4. In situ observations
5. Process understanding• Linking observations to processes• Fundamental research and model development
1. Goals and Vision of a Carbon Observatory• To provide the long-term observations required to improve understanding of the present state and future behavior of the global carbon cycle, particularly the factors that control the global atmospheric CO2 level and feedbacks to climate.
• To measure carbon sources and sinks from global to regional scales in a way that can inform the development of international climate treaties, and methodologies for national GHGs budgets and domestic policies.
• To monitor and assess the effectiveness of carbon sequestration and/or emission reduction activities on global atmospheric CO2 levels, including attribution of sources and sinks by region and sector.
IGCO 2004, GCP 2003
Vision for a Carbon Cycle Model-Data Assimilation System
Ocean remote sensingOcean colourAltimetryWindsSSTSSS
Ocean remote sensingOcean colourAltimetryWindsSSTSSS
Ocean time seriesBiogeochemical
pCO2
Surface observationpCO2
nutrients
Water column inventories
Remote sensing of Vegetation propertiesGrowth CycleFiresBiomassRadiationLand cover /use
Remote sensing of Vegetation propertiesGrowth CycleFiresBiomassRadiationLand cover /use
Ecological studies
Ecological studies
Biomasssoil carbon inventories
Eddy-covarianceflux towers
Remote sensing of Atmospheric CO2
Atmosphericmeasurements
Georeference emissions inventories Data
assimilationlink
Climate and weatherfields
Terrestrial carbon model
Terrestrial carbon model
Atmospheric Transport model
Atmospheric Transport model
Ocean carbon model
Ocean carbon model
optimizedfluxes
optimizedmodel
parameters
Lateral fluxesCoastal studies
Rivers
IGCO 2004
1980-2000 Mean Net Flux to the Atmosphere (gC m-2 y-1)
Data Assimilated:• Atmospheric [CO2 ]• AVHRR - PAR
• 12 Functional Veg. Types
Multiple Constraints Data Assimilation for Carbon Cycle
Models:• atmospheric
transport model• terrestrial
biosphere (BETHY)
Rayner et al. 2005
TransCom resolution• Transport Model• Atmospheric CO2
Continental to Sub-continental Resolution
2. Types of Observations
Complementary core groups of observations to address three themes:
• Fluxes: observations to enable quantification of the distribution and variability of the CO2 fluxes between the Earth’s surface and the atmosphere.
• Pools: Observations on changes in the atmospheric, oceanic, and terrestrial reservoir carbon pools.
• Process: Measurements related to the important carbon cycle processes that control fluxes.
Atmospheric column CO2 concentration measured from satellites
Atmospheric CO2 concentration measured from in situ networks
Land-atmosphere CO2 flux measured via eddy covariance flux network
Global, synoptic satellite observations to extrapolate in situ data
Fluxes
Forest biomass inventories
Soil carbon inventories
Carbon storage in the sediments of reservoirs, lakes
Carbon storage in anthropogenic pools, primarily wood products
PoolsIGCO 2004
Basin-scale observations of the air-sea flux (ocean pCO2) from ship-based measurements, drifters and time series
Global, synoptic satellite observations to extrapolate in situ dataWinds, SST, SSS, ocean colour
Fluxes
Sediment trap and sea-floor studies, with a special emphasis on coastal sediments
Basin-scale ocean inventories with full column sampling of carbon system parameters
PoolsIGCO 2004
3. Priorities for Satellite Observations
• Column-integrated atmospheric CO2
• Atmospheric CO2 and aerosols• Biomass burning CH4 emissions• Column integrated CH4
• Atmospheric structure, temperature, humidity, winds.
• Land-cover change• Ecosystem disturbances• Directional reflectance• Ocean color• Ancillary terrestrial data• Ancillary oceanic data• Forest aboveground biomass• Wetland coverage
New Measurements
Not new but require new spatial and temporal resolution, orbetter coordination
IGCO 2004
Instrument Coverage Weight-func Hrl Res CO CH4 CO2 Precision
TOVS trop monthly upper-trop 15 degs no no yes —SCIAMACHY global column 30×60 km yes yes yes 3-5ppmAIRS glob daily mid-trop 50 km yes yes yes 2ppmIASI glob daily mid-trop 50 km yes yes yes 2ppmCRIS glob daily mid-trop 50 km yes yes yes 2ppmOCO sunlit column 3-10 km2 no no yes 1–2ppmGOSAT sunlit column 100-1000 Km — yes yes 3–4ppmACCLAIM glob weekly lower trop 100m no no yes 1ppmA-SCOPE glob weekly lower trop 100m no no yes 1ppm
CO2 from Space: Instruments
Peter Rayner 2005 (unpublished)
The Orbiting Carbon Observatory (OCO)
• Resolve pole to pole XCO2 gradients on regional scales
• Resolve the XCO2 seasonal cycle
• Improve constraints on CO2 fluxes (sources and sinks) compared to the current knowledge:– Reduce regional scale flux
uncertainties from >2000 gC m-2 yr-1 to < 200 gC m-2 yr-1
– Reduce continental scale flux uncertainties below 30 gC m-2 yr-
1
David Chris 2005
Near Infrared Passive SensorLaunch – Sept. 2008
OCO Path: 1-day Unselected
OCO Path: Clouds Selected
OCO Path: 3-day Unselected
Uncertainy Reduction from Different Data Sources
Houweling et al. 2005
CO2 Inversions
2 weekly
Data
4. Priorities for in situ observations
• Atmospheric CO2 and Carbon Cycle Tracer Observations.
• Eddy Covariance fluxes of CO2, H2O and Energy.
• Large scale biomass inventories.
• Large scale soil carbon inventories.
• Ocean carbonates.
IGCO 2004
Priority Pools and Processes
Permafrost
HL PeatlandsT PeatlandsVeg.-Fire/LUC
CH4 HydratesBiological PumpSolubility Pump
Carbon-Climate Feedbacks Hot Spots
Oceans
Land
GCP 2005
Priority Pools and Processes
Permafrost
HL PeatlandsT PeatlandsVeg.-Fire/LUC
CH4 HydratesBiological PumpSolubility Pump
Carbon-Climate Feedbacks Hot Spots
Oceans
Land
GCP 2005
Coupled Climate-Carbon Difference Coupled-Uncoupled
Atm
osph
eric
CO2
(ppm
)Carbon-Climate Feedbacks
Friedlingstein et al. 2006
10 GCMs with coupled carbon cycle
220 ppm
NO processes on thawing frozen carbonNO processes on drained peatlandsNO specific fire processesNO processes accounting for nutrient limitation (N, P)
Core space based observation Land-cover change Disturbances (e.g., fire counts and burned areas) Leaf Area Index and related biophysical processes Ocean color (which relates to biological activity)
In situ observation related to processesSoil characteristicsWater vapor and energy eddy covariance fluxesPhenology of the terrestrial biosphereNutrient distributions and fluxes (ocean and land)Species composition of ecosystemsAtmospheric tracers (O2:N2 ; 13C-CO2 ; CO ; aerosols).
5. Attributing Major Processes to Fluxes
Carbon Emissions from Fires
C Flux Anomalies (gC/m2/yr)El Nino 1997-98
Fire C Emissions Anomaly (gC/m2/yr)El Nino 1997-98
1997-982.1 Pg C emissions from fires
66% of the CO2 growth rate anomaly
1997-20013.53 Pg C emissions from fires
Rodenbeck et al. 2003; Werf et al. 2004
Atmospheric Tracers: CO, CH4
Remote Sensing: Fire Spots, Burned Area
(17) Transport Models (TransCom)
More Data is not Enough
4 ppm
Fundamental process understanding & model development
Global Terrestrial Carbon Uptake
(6) Dynamic Global Vegetation Models
7 PgCyr-1
Cramer et al. 2001
Biospheric Carbon Uptake (Pg C yr-1)La
nd U
ptak
e (G
t C/
yr)
Land C Uptake Ocean C Uptake
10 GCMs with coupled carbon cycle
Friedlingstein et al. 2006
15 Pg7 Pg
1. CO2 fertilization2. Nitrogen fertilization3. Warming and preciptation change4. Regrowth in abandoned croplands5. Fire suppression (woody encroach.)6. Regrowth in previously disturbed forests
– Logging, fire, wind, insects7. Decreased deforestation8. Improved agriculture9. Sediment burial10. Carbon Management (reforestation)
Candidate Mechanisms of Current Terrestrial Sinks
Driven byAtmospheric &Climate change
Driven by Land UseChange
Canadell et al. 2006
The Terrestrial Carbon Sink…… will increase in the future if the important mechanisms are physiological
(eg, CO2 Fertilization)
…will decrease in the future if the important mechanism are due to the legacy of past land use
(eg, regrowth, thickening..)
Climate warms as predictedClimate warms more rapidly than predicted
Attribution of the terrestrial carbon sink
Sin
k st
reng
th
Sin
k st
reng
th
Terrestrial Carbon Observations
Approach
RS [CO2]RS Measurements[CO2] MeasuremtsBiomass/NPP and
soil inventories
Regional campaignsField experiments
Disturbances
Eddy Covariance fluxes
Plot studies and experiments
RegionLandscape
1 km2
1 ha
ContinentBiome
Scale
Modified from GTOS, Cihlar et al. 2001
Process studiesPool
s an
d Fl
uxes
End