Global Challenges World at Risk Revision Guide

7/28/2019 Global Challenges World at Risk Revision Guide

1/22

Global Challenges: World at Risk

Global Hazards

1. The nature of hazardGlobal hazards, which can be classified into two major categories, hydro-meteorological and geophysical,

cause increasing numbers of disasters around the world. Frequently a number of hazards occur together (i.e.

are spatially concentrated). Where the people are already vulnerable, because of poverty and highpopulation densities, multiple-hazard hotspots occur. A study of global trends confirms that the frequency

and magnitude of hydro-meteorological disasters is increasing as a result of a possible link to climate

change.

Climate changeis now considered by many to be the worlds greatest problem. It is a context hazard and

therefore a chronic global scale threat to both the environment and people .

Define the key terms below:

Context hazard

Geophysical

hazard

Hazard

Hydro-meteorologicalhazard

Disaster

Vulnerability

Risk

Risks and vulnerability are now greater as a result of climate change, with more hydro-meteorological

disaster events, which add to the pressure on countries that have a limited ability to adapt and where coping

strategies are already stretched.


2/22

Explain how a disaster becomes a Hazard:

2. The risk of disaster

Draw the disaster risk equation out below:

Risk = _________________________________________________

Define the following terms:

Frequency or magnitude

Capacity to cope

Vulnerability

Why is the level of risk getting worse for some countries?

Note that the risk is much lower in MEDCs. These countries have the resources and technology to provide

protection from the worse impacts of disasters.

3. Global warming: our greatest hazardClimate change can be classified using timescales (long, medium and short term). Short-term or recent

climate change since the 1960s, is not only the result of global warming but also of the increasing impact of

atmospheric/oceanic oscillations such as El Nino/La Nina effect.

Define the following terms:

Albedo

Climate change

Enhanced greenhouseeffect


3/22

Fossil Fuels

Global Warming

Greenhouse effect

Tipping point

Feedback mechanism

Draw an annotated diagram to explain the enhanced greenhouse effect:


4/22

Ten reasons why recent climate change might be the worlds greatest hazard

1. Climate change is a global problem; all areas of the world will be affected to a lesser or greaterdegree. However, the impacts are various, and often unique to a particular economy.

2. Climate change is a chronic (ongoing) hazard. It will have an enormous range of direct impacts linkedto rising temperatures, which can themselves amplify other problems. These include climate beltmigration towards the poles, which will have a severe impact on ecology and wildlife and lead to thespread of diseases such as malaria. Rising temperatures also have an impact on both atmospheric andoceanic circulations. Rising ocean temperatures may be a cause of more frequency and magnitude of

hurricanes.3. Climate change is not just an environmental problem. It has a range of impacts on societies and

economies, threatening their very existence in terms of water availability, food security and healthand well being.

4. Climate change is unpredictable. It could become catastrophic depending on whether, or how fast,the tipping point is reached. This depends on both physical and human factors.

There are a number of interlocking systems that can affect each other via positive and negativefeedback. For example, rising temperature melt glaciers and ice sheets. This leads to more incomingsolar radiation being absorbed by land and sea, because ice and snow have a greater albedo(reflective power) than rock and water. Thus melting of the ice sheet leads to yet more melting andexample of positive feedback. The melting ice sheets could lead to the ocean becoming diluted, which

could have an effect on ocean current circulation, thus weakening the warming powers of the NorthAtlantic Drift (negative feedback).

The human factor is related to how effectively the world can mitigate the damaging effects ofclimate change by reducing the production of greenhouse gases to slow down the rate of global

warming. Many people argue that only with radical solutions will the impacts of climate change behalted.

5. Climate change has many indirect impacts too. For example, thermal expansion of the oceans aswater expands with heating leads to rising sea levels, a process that may reach catastrophic levels ifthe large polar ice sheets (Arctic and Antarctica) melt. Rising sea levels have already created theworlds first environmental refugees in the islands of the Ganges delta in the South Pacific.

6.

Climate change prediction requires successful modelling of the future by scientists in the IPCC forboth direct impacts (rising temperatures, more extreme weather) and indirect impacts (rising sealevels, changing ecosystems). The sheer complexity of the calculations makes this process extremelydifficult, with huge variations in the scenarios presented. This makes it particularly hard to convincepeople about the severity of climate change,

7. It is difficult to separate the effects of global warming and those of other influences on present-day weather such as the El Nino/L Nina cycle. Many of the changing weather patterns such as moreextremes with greater climate variability, or increasing frequency of droughts, big storms andwidespread flooding may be attributable to global warming, but are more likely to be linked to

atmospheric/oceanic oscillations. The droughts and floods in 2007 are an example.8. Climate change requires global solutions, firstly tackling carbon emissions. However, there are huge

political problems. It is unjust to have a two-speed, unequal world in which more developed countriespollute and less developed countries are vulnerable victims. A further problem is the emergence ofChina, India and Brazil as rapidly expanding economies, and a resurgent Russia, which feel that theirindustrial development should not be jeopardised by targets for reducing greenhouse gas emissions.

9. Until recently the issue of climate change was strongly contested. While there is now a broadconsensus amount scientists, led by the IPCC, that levels of greenhouse gases and globaltemperatures are rising and that there is a link between them there are still sceptics. There are twosuch groups: those who find weakness in the data and interpretation; and those with vested interests(for example, oil companies), which claim that global warming and the resulting hazards are due tofactors other than the burning of fossil fuels.

10. Climate change is a problem of enormous scale and proportions, and so is the world; most costlyproblem.


5/22

Global hazard Trends

The term hazard and disaster are often used interchangeably, in spite of there being a clear distinction

between a hazard as a potentially threatening event, and a disaster as the realisation of a hazard event.

1. Hazard trends and analysisSome types of hazard are increasing in magnitude and frequency.

Compare and contrast the hazard trends for Geophysical and Hydro meteorological hazards:


6/22

Natural disasters are in increasing because of a combination of physical and human factors.

Why are Hurricanes increasing as a result of climate change?

How do El Nino events lead to increasing natural hazards?

2. Human factors in disastersRapid population growth

Deforestation and landdegradation

Urbanisation

Poverty and politics


7/22

Using the diagram above explain some of the factors that influence if a hazard becomes a disaster:

3. Trends in human costs of disastersDescribe and explain the trends below:

Reported Deaths:


8/22

Number of people affected:

Economic losses:


9/22

4. Global disaster trends: a summaryNatural disasters are more common in countries with a low and medium level of development. Many of these

countries are in tropical areas which have monsoon rainfall or hurricanes. Disasters cause more death and

disruption in poor countries, which lack the resources and funds to develop high-tech prevention and

prediction systems. Damage in absolute economic terms remains highest in high-income countries but in

relative terms it is much more devastating for poorer countries.


10/22

Global Hazard Patterns

1. Investigating hazard risk in your local areaDescribe the hazard risks in your local area:

2. The distribution of the worlds major natural hazardsFor each of the major hazards (earthquakes, volcanoes, slides, drought, flood and storms), you need to know

the following:

The distribution of the occurrence for each hazard A clear definition of each of the six types A basic understanding of the causes of each hazard. Some of understanding of the likely impacts of each hazard.

Earth uakes

Volcanoes


11/22

Plate margin Movement Earthquakes Volcanoes

Destructive(oceaniccontinental)

e.g. Philippines/ Ring of Fire

Destructive(continental continental)

Constructive(oceanicoceanic)e.g. Iceland

Conservative(continentalcontinental)e.g. San Andreas Fault

Mid-plate hotspots

Drought

Floods


12/22

3. Disaster HotspotsA disaster hotspot is a country or area that is extremely-prone for a number of reasons.

You need to learn the Philippines and California coast case studies in depth with detailed statistics. Learn

how to draw simple sketch map on which you can annotate key facts about the occurrence and impacts of the

range of disasters they experience. For each one, think about the types of hazard and why they areconcentrated there (with examples of recent events and the deaths and damage caused). Consider how

vulnerability can lead to disasters, and the adaptive capacity of the people and government.

Landslides

Storms


13/22

Climate Change and its causes

1. Climate change at different scalesDefine the following terms:

Climate

Climate change

Thermohalinecirculation

Little Ice Age

Medieval WarmPeriod

Climate change occurs at a range of different timescales.

Timescale Evidence

Long Term(geological)

Medium Term(historical)

Short Term

(context)


14/22

2. The drivers of climate changeDefine the following terms:

Climate forcing

Climate

feedback

Natural causes are the main driver of long-term and medium-term climate change.

Long Term(Astronomicalforcing)

Medium Term(Solar output)

Short Term(Enhancedgreenhouseeffect)


15/22

3. Unprecedented global warming?Eight key questions on climate change for you to consider

1. Is short term climate change part of the longer term cycle of climate change or is it happening at anunprecedented rate and therefore something special?

2. Is the short term climate change caused by natural and human (anthropogenic) causes?3. What is causing global warming?4.

Is there any interconnection between global warming and oscillations such as the El Nino SouthernOscillation (ENSO)?

5. What are the impacts of climate change so difficult to predict?6. How and why do they differ from place to place and how are they likely to change over time?7. What makes climate change the worlds most difficult problem to solve? Who does this cause

conflict?8. Will we reach the tipping point or come back from the brink?


16/22

The impacts of global warming

1. Indirect impacts: rising sea levelsEustatic change

Isostatic change

Predicting sea-level rise is complex and uncertain. It is caused by both thermal expansion of the oceans

(increase in volume with warming) and melting ice sheets.

Some areas are particularly vulnerable to rising sea levels:

The worlds largest deltas e.g. Brahmaputra/Ganges in Bangladesh, Nile and Mississippi; these havelarge populations and high risk of exposure to storm surges, flooding and sea-level rise.

Small low-lying islands (coral atolls in the Indian and Pacific Oceans) Areas close to sea level that are already heavily defended e.g. Netherlands and eastern England (the

Wash) Places such as Hong Kong and Singapore, where new developments have been built on reclaimed

coastal landThe first environmental refugees have already been registered from the Chra Islands of Bangladesh and

Tegua in the South Seas.

Annotate the information above onto the world map below (use your book to add detail):


17/22

2. Predicting emissions and their impactsThe intergovernmental pattern on Climate change (IPCC), first formed in 1988, collects data on greenhouse

gas concentrations, sea levels and ice stores. As the prediction of climate change is so uncertain the IPCC

envisages different possibilities based on a range of emissions scenarios.

High emission scenario: rapid economic growth, increasing populations, reliance on fossil fuels andbusiness as usual.

Medium-high economic scenario: more self-reliance, increasing populations and economic growth. Medium-low emission: population growth slows, clean and efficient technology, reduction in use of

fossil fuels. Low emissions scenario: local solutions to sustainability, slower rate of population increase, less rapid

technological change.

Projections of emissions levels and their impacts are difficult to predict because

3. A more hazardous world?The scientific evidence points to increasing risks of serious, irreversible impacts from climate change. The

point when change becomes irreversible and catastrophic is called the tipping point.

The 2007 level of greenhouses gases in the atmosphere is nearly 400 ppm carbon dioxide equivalent. Even if

the annual flow of emissions did not increase beyond todays rate, the stock of greenhouse gases in the

atmosphere could reach 550 ppm carbon dioxide equivalent by 2050. However, the annual flow of emissions is

accelerating as fast-growing economies invest in a high-carbon infrastructure and as demand for energy and

transport increase around the world. The level of 550 ppm could be reached as early as 2035. At this levelthere is a strong chance of a global average temperature rise exceeding 2C, which many regard as the

tipping point for temperatures.


18/22

Under a business as usual scenario with no serious attempt at mitigating the impacts greenhouse gases could

more than treble by 2100, giving at least 50% risk of exceeding a 5C global average temperature change in

the following decades. This huge rise would take humans into unknown territory disaster on an unimaginable

scale.

Coping with climate change

1. Mitigation or adaptation?Adaptivecapacity

Climatevulnerability

Mitigation

Adaptation

Give named examples of mitigation and adaptation strategies below:

Mitigation Adaptation

More info on strategies:http://www.ipcc.ch/

Kyoto Protocol: governments reaching global agreement?

1992 Rio Earth Summit, the UN Convention framework on Climate Change was agreed It led to the Kyoto Protocol in 1997 however putting this into practice led to extreme complex and

ongoing negotiations Many countries delayed signing as they though cutting emissions would damage their economies i.e.

Russia not to 2005 and Australia not to 2007. The USA initially signed, but withdraw in 2002 afterthe election of George Bush.

The following systems were criticized as they still allowed the polluters to pollute. Carbon creditstrading buying unused emissions from other countries or businesses. Carbon sinks such as plantingforests, so countries could offset emissions.

Overall reduction have been under 1% as some developing countries were no obliged to sign thetreaty (China, India and Brazil).
http://www.ipcc.ch/http://www.ipcc.ch/http://www.ipcc.ch/http://www.ipcc.ch/


19/22

Create a mind map to describing the Kyoto Protocol below:

2. Key players in climate changeUsing examples explain the role of each organisation in combating climate change.

Businesses

National governments

Local governments

NGOshttp://climatecamp.org.uk/?q=node/468

http://www.ecoequity.org/

Individuals
http://climatecamp.org.uk/?q=node/468http://climatecamp.org.uk/?q=node/468http://climatecamp.org.uk/?q=node/468http://www.ecoequity.org/http://www.ecoequity.org/http://www.ecoequity.org/http://www.ecoequity.org/http://www.ecoequity.org/http://climatecamp.org.uk/?q=node/468http://climatecamp.org.uk/?q=node/468


20/22

3. Incremental progressExplain why progress to coping with climate change has been slower than many people would like?

The challenge of global hazards for the future

1. The enormity of the challengeIncreasing risk and uncertainty threatens the major disruption to people and the environment at a global

scale.

How do the following global problems make managing global hazards more difficult?

Water shortages

Food insecurity

Poverty


21/22

2. Tackling the challengeThe world needs to recognised that global warming is one of the biggest challenges it has faced. People nd

organisations will need to make innovative choices and adopt sustainable strategies.

Describe some of these approaches below:

Tree planting

Renewable energy projects

Community based solutions

Energy efficiency

3. A more hazardous worldThe world is becoming a more hazardous place at all scales. Solutions to these problems must rely on the

underlying issues of risk and vulnerability.

Using the Hugo Framework for Action p. 85 outline ways they can be achieved.


22/22

Documents

Global Challenges World at Risk Revision Guide