Global Change Pressures in the City of the Future

7/25/2019 Global Change Pressures in the City of the Future

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GLOBAL CHANGE PRESSURESIN THE CITY OF THE FUTURE

Kala Vairavamoorthy


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Contents

Current conditions in LDCs

Future conditions in LDCs

Issues of Climate Change

The way forward

SWITCH


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Contents




The way forward

SWITCH


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Percent of global total WithoutAccess to Drinking Water per region

42%

25%

19%

6%

4% 4%

East Asia/PacificSub-Sahran AfricaSouth AsiaLACMENA

Others

1.1 billion without

access to water

Source: UNDP (2003)

"MiddleEast and North Africa"

Latin Americaand theCaribbea


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42%

37%

12%

5% 2%

East Asia/PacificSouth Asia

Sub-Sahran AfricaLACMENAOthers

2.4 billion without

access to sanitation

Source: UNDP (2003)

Percent of global total WithoutAccess to Sanitation per region

"M eEast an Nort A rca"

Latin Americaand theCaribbea


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24-Hour Water Availability (2001)

Source: McIntosh (2003)


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Coverage with Piped Water



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Non-Revenue Water (2001)



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Most wastewater is not treated!

Water

Treatment

Distribution network

Sewer Network

CentralisedWWTP

Effluentdischarge


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While 85% of all wastewater is not treated!

.and the consequences are clear..

0%10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Primary/ secondary treatment Tertiary treatment

World-wideEU

95%


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Is this the future of our

water resources?


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Contents




The way forward

SWITCH


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World population prospects 1950 - 2030

Source: UN (2004)


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G h f b l i


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Growth of urban agglomerations(population in millions)


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Water-stress facts

Africa 12 countries in a Water Stress situation. Further 10 countries will be stressed by 2025

(1.1 billion people or 2/3s of population).

India Largest number of water-deprived persons inthe world in next 25 years.

By 2050, half of population will be living inurban areas and face acute water problems.


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Water availability


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Deteriorating Infrastructure

Buried urban infrastructure networks havedeclined rapidly over the last 20 years

aging, poor construction practices, lack of qualitycontrol, little or no maintenance, and operation atcapacities higher than design intended

For example in Canada upgrading systems toappropriate standards over the next 15 years

could cost around $75 billion.


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American Water Works Service Co., Inc. (2002)

Main Breaks since 1965 (USA)


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Contents




The way forward

SWITCH


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IS92a scenario

Changes in Runoff due to CC - 2080

Source: Hadley Centre (2003)


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Water stress due to CC - 2080

IS92a scenario Source: Hadley Centre (2003)


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CC developing countries

60% of the additional people at risk offlooding are expected to be in Southern Asiaand 20% in South East Asia (2080)

Additional 3 billion people could sufferincreased water stress by 2080. (NorthernAfrica, Middle East and India)

Africa, Middle East and India expected toexperience significant reductions in yields

Additional 290 million people exposed tomalaria by the 2080. (China and Central Asia)


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CC and developing countries

Poor people will be hardest hit as they aremost vulnerable (lower capacity to adapt).

lack of financial, institutional and technologicalcapacity and access to knowledge

While climate change is important in the long

run, there are more immediate developmentpriorities that affect human welfare.

Is it responsible to argue for adaptivemeasures when predictions are so uncertain ?

d


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Uncertainties in predictions

Emissions

Uncertainty due to emissions

GCM/Downscaling

Decision

Making

Hydrological

WR

Science uncertainty

Uncertainty due tonatural variabili ty

S i t i t


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Science uncertainty


Science uncertainty


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Science uncertainty


Relative frequency of predicted


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Relative frequency of predictedchanges in daily rainfall

seasonal average ( blue bars )extreme 99 th percentile ( red bars )

ensemble of climate model

C t t


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Contents




The way forward

SWITCH


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Current practise of urban water management,

use and abuse is not sustainable

But is this surprising if we realize that.

the current system was designed when theworld population was below 1 Billion..

.and the term Sustainability

was not invented yet

hil d d f Gl b l


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.while present days syndromes of GlobalChange were still unknown


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Challenge

There is a need for win-win actions thataddress directly the more immediate watermanagement problems while preparing for theconsequences of longer term climate changes.

Wise to make decisions on "no-regrets"adaptive measures, or decisions which preventfuture options being closed.

l b l


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Focus on vulnerability

Vulnerability management - holistic andintegrated activities

Proactive or anticipatory adaptation aims to buildresilience and reduce vulnerability by minimizingrisk and maximizing adaptive capacity.

Study urban environment as complete system,to observe and analyze the interconnections andinterdependencies among urban infrastructuresand identify points of vulnerability

Contents


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Contents




The way forward

SWITCH


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SWITCH

EU 6 th Community Research


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Framework Programme

Theme : Global Change and Eco-systems

Specific theme: Integrated Urban Water Mgt

SWITCH: S ustainable Urban W ater Management

I mproves Tomorrows Citys H ealth

Implementation: 2006 2010

Coordinator: UNESCO-IHE

SWITCH Consortium


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SWITCH Consortium

32 Partners 17 from EU 12 from Developing countries

3 from other countries 9 Demo-cities 10 Study sites Some 40 PhD studies 17 different countries

Project Duration: 5 years (2006 2010)Budget: 23 Million Euro

SWITCH


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SWITCHOverall Goal and Mission

The SWITCH Integrated Project aims to contribute to theachievement of sustainable and effective urban watermanagement (UWM) schemes in The City of thefuture (projection 30-50 years from now).

The approach will be to develop efficient urban watersystems and services (city level) in the context of thecitys geographical and ecological setting (river basinlevel), which are robust and adjustable to a range ofglobal change pressures (global level ).

SWITCH calls for a Paradigm Shift


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SWITCH calls for a Paradigm Shift

System must be robust, flexible and adaptable toglobal change pressures.

Must consider interventions over the entire urbanwater cycle interrelations (e.g. water use =wastewater production = water resourcedeterioration = increased costs of drinking water

production). Reconsider water use - make water more

productive (DM, reuse.)

Source separation and treatment for reuse -manage individual waste flows (converting wastecomponents into products)

SWITCH approach and methodology


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Activities


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1 Urban water paradigm shift

2 Urban water supply & use

3 Storm Water Management

4 Water use in sanitation and wastemanagement

5 Urban water environments and planning

6 Governance and institutional change

Examples of activities


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Bank filtration and soil-aquifer treatment:

Demonstrations:Demonstrations:TelTel -- Aviv (WWT Aviv (WWT --reuse)reuse)Berlin (bank filtration)Berlin (bank filtration)



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Rational Water Use: Demand Management

Water saving technologies

Demonstrations:Demonstrations:ZaragozaZaragoza(World Expo 2008)(World Expo 2008)

Eco sanitation


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Eco-sanitation

Dry sanitation Urine separation

Nutrient recovery Reuse

Demonstrations:Demonstrations:BeijingBeijing

Alexandria Alexandria

Beijing


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j g

Innovative water management concepts:

separate treatment of concentrated and dilutedwastewater flows

use of treated effluents and storm water infiltrationfor landscaping and groundwater recharge

potential use of eco-san products in urban

agriculture.

Sustainable building areaSustainable building areawill serve as a demonstrationwill serve as a demonstration

site during the Greensite during the GreenOlympics of 2008.Olympics of 2008.


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Water in the City of

the Future

Picture the City of the Future


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We learned to live with water by building flexible cities We do no longer use water to transport wastes We have effective water and waste recovery schemes

We use a fraction of the water use of 30-50 years ago We apply integrated urban water cycle management

Documents

Global Change Pressures in the City of the Future