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Global Changes and Global Changes and Industrial EcologyIndustrial Ecology
Pedro J.J. Alvarez, Ph.D., P.E., DEEPedro J.J. Alvarez, Ph.D., P.E., DEE
Department of Civil & Environmental EngineeringDepartment of Civil & Environmental Engineering
Anthropogenic ChangesAnthropogenic Changes
• We have transformed or degraded 39-50% of the land surface We have transformed or degraded 39-50% of the land surface (agriculture, urbanization).(agriculture, urbanization).
• Since 1850, the atmospheric COSince 1850, the atmospheric CO22 concentration has increased by concentration has increased by
40% 40% (hydrocarbon combustion, deforestation)(hydrocarbon combustion, deforestation)
• We use 50% of readily available fresh water in the planet We use 50% of readily available fresh water in the planet
• More than 20% of bird species became extinct in the last 200 yearsMore than 20% of bird species became extinct in the last 200 years
• 22% of fishery resources have been depleted, and 44% are in 22% of fishery resources have been depleted, and 44% are in dangerdanger
Major Environmental Problems
México, D.F.
Acid Rainlakes (fish)soil (agriculture)art
Mutant Frogs (Minnesota)
What Happens to Humans?
• 95% of pesticides could cause cancer!!!
• Babies and young children may have poor brain development
Selected Emerging Pollutant Classes
Endocrine disruptors Pharmaceuticals & cosmetics that bioaccumulate and affect reproduction (PFOs, synthetic musk fragrances, PBDEs)
Waste Nanomaterials Growing industry with materials that bioaccumulate or co-transport pollutants (e.g., C-nanotubes, bucky balls)
Biological agents Calcivirus, prions, antibiotic resistance genes, transgenics
Global Problems
The Atmosphere
• Relatively small compartment (0.3% of the ocean's mass)
• Easy to contaminate (little dilution)
• Greenhouse gases CO2, CFCs, CH4, N2O affect global climate
100 km
Released(109 ton/year)
Removed(109 ton/year)
Combustion (HCs) 6.0 Bio-uptake(plants)
1.2
Deforestation 1.2 Uptake by oceans 2.5
Sum: 7.2 Sum: 3.7
Accumulation: 3.5 x 109 ton/year
CO2 Emissions
Greenhouse Effect and Global Warming
CO2, CH4, N2O, CFCs
Trap IR radiationTrap IR radiationIrradiate heat Irradiate heat
Global Warming:
Flooding (MSL rises 4 mm/ year, 2100: 15-95 mm/ year)
Malaria, schistosomiasis, cholera
Saline Intrusion
New Deserts?
Disasters (hurricanes)
Goddard Institute for Space Studies
1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000
Deg
ree
Cel
sius
Average temperature increased by 0.6 C(the 90’s was the warmest decade of the century)
Precautionary PrinciplePrecautionary Principle
• There is considerable uncertainty regarding anthropogenic effects on global There is considerable uncertainty regarding anthropogenic effects on global climate, but….climate, but….
• ““When an activity raises threats of harm to human health or the When an activity raises threats of harm to human health or the environment, precautionary measures should be taken even if some cause-environment, precautionary measures should be taken even if some cause-and-effect relations are not fully established scientifically”. and-effect relations are not fully established scientifically”.
1998 Wingspread Statement1998 Wingspread Statement
• ““If we live as if it matters and it doesn’t matter, it doesn’t matter. If we live If we live as if it matters and it doesn’t matter, it doesn’t matter. If we live as if it doesn’t matter, and it matters, then it matters”.as if it doesn’t matter, and it matters, then it matters”.
Biodiversity is in Danger
Perhaps 10,000 species per year are lost out of 4-14 million total (1.7 million known species)
“To worry about the environment and biodiversity, you must have at least one full meal per day”
Richard Leaky, Director, Kenya Wildlife Service
Environmental problems Have two roots
1. Demographic explosion….
This is mainly a problem of underdeveloped countries
The second root of environmental problems:2. Energy use and consumerism, developed countries (exacerbated by the globalization of the economy)
Per capita CO2 Emissions(Energy use - hydrocarbons, coal)
Global Poverty = most serious environmental problem(1.3 x109 lack potable water, 2.3 x109 lack sanitary facilities, 13 million children/yr die of hunger, diarrhea)
UN Stats: The Impoverished World
– 50% live on less than $2/day; have no electricity; they have never made or received a phone call
– 38% lack sanitary facilities and conveyance of sewage
– 21% lack safe drinking water– 22% are illiterate (15%
women, 6% men)– Malaria, HIV/AIDS, dengue,
diarrhea/dysentery kill millions each year
UN Stats: The Rich World
– 20% generate and enjoy 86% of the wealth
– 5% (U.S./Canada) consume…• 25-30% of its nonrenewable Resources• Emit 25% of GHG• Use 30% of its energy• $10 Trillion GDP
– Only 6% own a computer– Only 2% have access to the Internet
Some environmental problems improve with development as Income per capita increases
• It is a multidisciplinary framework to design and operate industries as if they were living entities interacting with ecosystems.
• Seeks to attain a balance between economic gains and ecological and global interests.
• It is the science behind sustainable development.
Industrial Ecology
Natural EcologyNatural Ecology
Homo Homo sapiensapienssCarnivoresCarnivores
Primary ProducesPrimary Produces
HerbivoresHerbivores
DetritusDetritus
NutrientsNutrients
WasteWaste
(CO(CO22, other), other)
HeatHeat
MineralizationMineralization
DeathDeath
RespirationRespiration
& Excretion& Excretion
Solar Solar EnergyEnergy
HeatHeat
Primary Primary ProductionProduction
Industrial EcologyIndustrial Ecology
RawRawMaterialsMaterials
LandfillLandfill
IncinerationIncineration
ProductsProducts
IntermediatesIntermediates
MaterialsMaterials
EnergyEnergy+ Work+ Work
CHCH44, CO, CO22
WasteWaste
RecycleRecycleReuseReuseRemanufactureRemanufacture
HeatHeatHeatHeat
HeatHeat
WasteWaste
Conventional Design Conventional Design
ManufactureManufacture ProductProductUseUse
EnergyEnergy
Discard inDiscard inLandfillLandfill
EnergyEnergy
RawRawMaterialsMaterials
WasteWasteWasteWaste
ManufactureManufacture ProductProductUseUse
RawRawMaterialsMaterials
EnergyEnergyEfficiency Efficiency
Energy Energy EfficiencyEfficiency
Waste minimizationSafe disposal
Innocuous end products
Remanufacture, RecycleRemanufacture, Recycle
ReuseReuseRecycleRecycle
Green DesignGreen Design
Green Options for Existing ProcessesGreen Options for Existing Processes
• Eliminate or replace product (life cycle assessment)Eliminate or replace product (life cycle assessment)
• Eliminate or minimize hazardous substance use (mass balance)Eliminate or minimize hazardous substance use (mass balance)
• Minimize energy use (audits)Minimize energy use (audits)
• Dematerialization (Minimize weight and/or volume, Combine various functions into one Dematerialization (Minimize weight and/or volume, Combine various functions into one
product, Make fewer different styles, Minimize/take back packaging, Moore’s Law: the product, Make fewer different styles, Minimize/take back packaging, Moore’s Law: the
speed of a chip doubles every 2 years)speed of a chip doubles every 2 years)
• Increase efficiency and economic lifeIncrease efficiency and economic life
• Redesign for reuse, remanufacture, or easy repairRedesign for reuse, remanufacture, or easy repair
• Reflect environmental cost in the price of the productReflect environmental cost in the price of the product
Environmental Impact?Water, Air, Soil
Human and Ecological
MarketingMarketing
ProductProductDevelopment Development
FinalFinalDisposal to Disposal to
the Environmentthe Environment
Transport Transport Distribution,Distribution,
SellSell
PackagingPackaging
New Product IdeaNew Product Idea
ManufactureManufacture
Use byUse byConsumer Consumer RecycleRecycle Reuse
Minimize Minimize WasteWaste
RemanufactureRemanufactureRecycleRecycle
take-backtake-back
Industry (not government) must be the agent of changeIndustry (not government) must be the agent of change
Annual Cost of Pollution Control in the USA
90%
140%
190%
240%
290%
340%
390%Green Companies
+228%
Other Companies+120%
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998
Value of Stocks(1/1/94 - 12/2/99)
Sustainable DevelopmentSustainable Development
““Meeting the needs of the present without compromising the Meeting the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needsability of future generations to meet their own needs””
Gro Brundtland, Prime Minister of NorwayGro Brundtland, Prime Minister of Norway
When considering a new project,When considering a new project,
– Is it reversible?Is it reversible?– Is it persistent?Is it persistent?– How much uncertainty? How much uncertainty? (generational (generational
justice)justice)– Is it socially just?Is it socially just?
Ideal Project
Global sustainability needs international collaboration to meet complementary needs of the 1st and 3rd worlds
– Developing countries have natural resources (land, water, energy, minerals, genetic pool) and work force.
– Developed countries have the capital and technology needed to exploit these resources sustainably (globalización?)
Old and New Paradigms Elkington (1997) – Cannibals with Forks
Old – Global Consumer– Me– More– Materialism– Quantity– Greed– Short-term– Rights
New – World Citizen– We– Enough– Holism– Quality– Need– Long-Term– Responsibilities
“The significant problems we face cannot be solved at the same level of thinking we were at when they were created”
Never doubt that a small group
of thoughtful, committed citizens
can change the world; indeed,
it is the only thing that ever has.
Margaret Mead
Questions?
Conclusions• Global change and global warming are already occurring• The world will be warmer in the 21st century with fewer species• But the amount of change depends on our actions now and in the
next decades to protect opportunities for future generations• Sustainable development seeks new solutions via international
cooperation, renewable resources, and market mechanisms • A good environment and a good economy can go hand-in-hand• But global poverty is still the largest “environmental” problem,
and it demands our urgent attention
Role for AEESP in Sustainability• Revise/revamp our curricula to add more sustainability science
and engineering (mostly we are already equipped in the fundamentals, but we need greater appreciation for a systems viewpoint, life cycle engineering, social science, culture, partnerships, and interdisciplinary teams)
• Show Leadership -- raise the level of awareness among our profession and constituencies; show that we are concerned and can contribute (World Summit on Sustainable Development)
• Water, air, and wastewater engineering are critical infrastructure needs of the developing world with which we can help (doing good and doing well)
Sustainable Economics
Old View:– $ Bottom Line
– $ Capital
– $ Assets
– Downsizing
– Exclusive
– Shareholders
– Growth
– Deregulation
New View:– Triple Bottom Line
– Social and Natural Capital
– Intellectual& Borrow Assets
– Innovation
– Inclusive
– Stakeholders
– Sustainability
– Reregulation
Product Life Cycle AnalysisProduct Life Cycle AnalysisMass Balances, Risk AssessmentMass Balances, Risk Assessment
Energy AuditsEnergy Audits
Pollution Prevention Pollution Prevention ProgramProgram
Reduce Contamination Reduce Contamination SourcesSources
RecycleRecycle
Change Product Change Product or Packagingor Packaging
Control Control SourcesSources
ReuseReuseSellSell
RemanufactureRemanufactureRecovery Recovery
Down-cycleDown-cycle
Change Change ProcessProcess
TechnologyTechnology
SubstituteSubstituteMaterialsMaterials
Change Change OperationsOperations
News that give hopeNews that give hope
• Progress in public health and reduction in infant mortalityProgress in public health and reduction in infant mortality
• More efficient use of energy More efficient use of energy
• Increase in global per capita incomeIncrease in global per capita income
• Global democratization and educationGlobal democratization and education
• Global treaties (Montreal, Rio, Kyoto)Global treaties (Montreal, Rio, Kyoto)
• Market forces (prices reflecting ecological truth; COMarket forces (prices reflecting ecological truth; CO2 2 emission emission
credits and trading)credits and trading)
• Multinational companies becoming greenerMultinational companies becoming greener
• Protection and de-listing of endangered speciesProtection and de-listing of endangered species
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990
Year
TotalEmissionsPer Year
Rapid developmentLittle pollution control
wastewater treatment
Air pollution control
Solid & hazardous wastes
IndustrialEcology
2000
Per capita CO2 Emissions(Energy use - hydrocarbons, coal)
Toxic Release Inventory
• Who wants to be first on the list of polluters?
• Shame is a powerful incentive to reduce emissions
Sustainable Development CorollariesSustainable Development Corollaries
Do not exploit renewable resources faster than they can Do not exploit renewable resources faster than they can be regenerated (wood)be regenerated (wood)
Do not use non-renewable resources faster than we can Do not use non-renewable resources faster than we can find alternative replacements (petroleum)find alternative replacements (petroleum)
When unavoidable to discard wastes to the environment, When unavoidable to discard wastes to the environment, do not pollute faster than the ecosystem can assimilatedo not pollute faster than the ecosystem can assimilate ..
Green Engineering ≠ Sustainability Green Engineering ≠ Sustainability
Society
ProductivityTechnological growth
Profit & employment
Environment
Economy
Pollution Control
BiodiversityNatural resources protection
and restoration
Culture
Social and generational justice
Stakeholder participation
Informed citizenry
WastesWater usageEnergy use
Materials useEcosystem health
Quality of lifeEquityHealth
Globalization• Globalization, in theory, eliminates trade barriers
and tariffs, which lowers costs and increases profits. This brings prosperity, choice, and democracy. But..
• Although life expectancy and mean income have improved, many people have been left behind in the 3rd world
• Globalization has distorted the allocation of resources in favor of private goods at the expense of public goods
• Global financial markets are prone to crisis which hurts poor people and poor countries more than rich ones