15.023 - 12.848 - ESD.128Global Climate Change:

Economics, Science and Policy• Introductions

– Faculty, teaching assistants, administration– The class (SSM, ESD, EAPS, other?)

• Why climate . . . & the challenge• Content & materials• Course details• How to think about the problem

Why Climate?• The scale of potential change

• The vulnerability of particular societies, sectors, and ecosystems

• The momentum of the economic system producing greenhouse gases– Importance policy for many industries

• The intellectual and political challenge

THE CONFLICT BETWEEN

ENVIRONMENT AND DEVELOPMENT

Climate ChangeUrban Air Pollution

Water QualityLand Degradation

Ecosystem DisruptionWaste Disposal

EnergyFood

TransportationManufacturing

Urban DevelopmentPopulation Growth

Potable WaterHuman Health

THE CLIMATE ISSUEEXEMPLIFIES THE

CHALLEGE FORSUSTAINING A

HABITABLE EARTH

TEMPERATURECHANGE IN THEINDUSTRIALAGE

1998 & 2005 are the WARMEST

YEARS

ARCTIC is WARMING MUCH

FASTERthan the GLOBAL

AVERAGE

NASA GISS, 2006

STABILITY OF WEST ANTARCTIC ICE SHEET

DEPLETION OF ARCTIC SUMMER

SEA ICE

September 2003September 1979

STABILITY OF ARCTIC TUNDRA &

PERMAFROST

VULNERABLE SYSTEMS AT

HIGH LATITUDES

Why Climate?• The scale of potential change

• The vulnerability of particular societies, sectors, and ecosystems

• The momentum of the economic system producing greenhouse gases– Importance of policy for many industries

• The intellectual and political challenge

The Intellectual and Political Challenge

• Many natural/social/behavioral sciences• Complexity of the human-climate system• A many-nation “commons” problem• Long time horizons & irreversible effects• Uncertainty (but possible learning)• Intersection with other issues

– North-South equity concerns– Energy, transport, land use, taxes, trade

Course Content• Origin and history of the course

– MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change

– Materials– “Toy” integrated system model

• Homework sets & team project• Classroom style, and preparation• Structure of the class sessions

– Mondays vs. Wednesdays– Science . . . economics . . . politics

Course OrganizationBackground/science2/12 Institutions

2/19

2/26Natural Science

Social Science/policy3/5

3/12 Integration3/19

3/26 Holiday4/2

4/9

4/23

4/305/7

5/14

Background/economics

4/16 Background/uncertainty

Materials• Readings

– Packet to purchase, ($30)• Today . . . and Monday

– Hand-outs (Joint Program reports & other)– Material on the web (mit.edu/globalchange)– Keep an eye on the news!

• Computer needs– “Toy” IGSM in the Sloan Computer Lab– Excel or other worksheet program

Other Details• Credits: 3-0-6• Prerequisites . . . & auditors• Class schedule

– Mon.: 3:00 to 5:00– Wed.: 3:00 to 4:00 (3:00 to 5:00 on May 12)– WILL meet on Wed., March 21 (Sloan trips)

• Grading• Questions?

HOW HAVE GLOBAL TEMPERATURES CHANGEDOVER THE PAST CENTURY (1906-2005), AND WHY?

Black lines:observed changes. Blue bands: range for 19 model simulations using natural forcings. Red bands: range for 51 model simulations using natural and human forcings.

REF: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change ,Fourth Assessment, Feb. 2, 2007

1.0

0.5

0.0

-0.5

-1.0

1.0

0.5

0.0

-0.5

-1.0

1.0

0.5

0.0

-0.5

-1.0

Year Year

Year

Year

Year

Year

Year

Year

Year

Tem

pera

ture

Ano

mal

y (o C

)

Tem

pera

ture

Ano

mal

y (o C

)

Tem

pera

ture

Ano

mal

y (o C

)

Global

North America

Global Land Global Ocean

1.0

0.5

0.0

-0.5

1900 2020Tem

pera

ture

Ano

mal

y (o C

)

1.0

0.5

0.0

-0.5

-1.0

Tem

pera

ture

Ano

mal

y (o C

)

1.0

0.5

0.0

-0.5

-1.0

Tem

pera

ture

Ano

mal

y (o C

)

1.0

0.5

0.0

-0.5

-1.0

Tem

pera

ture

Ano

mal

y (o C

)1.0

0.5

0.0

-0.5

-1.5

Tem

pera

ture

Ano

mal

y (o C

)

1.0

0.5

0.0

-0.5

-1.0

Tem

pera

ture

Ano

mal

y (o C

)

Europe

Asia

South America

Africa

Australia

-1.01940 1980

1900 20201940 1980

1900 20201940 1980

1900 20201940 1980

1900 20201940 19801900 20201940 1980

1900 20201940 19801900 20201940 19801900 20201940 1980

Figure by MIT OCW, based on REF: Intergovenmental Panel on Climate Change.

NEW WHEELlower oddsof EXTREMES

What would we buy with STABILIZATION

of CO2 at 550 ppm?

Compared withNO POLICY

HOW CAN WE EXPRESS THE VALUE OF ACLIMATE POLICY UNDER UNCERTAINTY?