Global Earthquake

Model:an OECD’s public-private partnership

Rui PinhoSecretary General, GEM Foundation

Dynamic: an (updatable) model, not a map

Global: cover also less developed/monitored areas (uniform standards)

Open Access: a (transparent) tool to use for everybody

Public-Private Partnership (non-profit Foundation): combining the strengths (and objectives) of both sectors

An internationally sanctioned program initiated by the OECD (Organization for Economic Co-Operation and Development), aiming to build an independent, open standard to calculate and communicate earthquake risk around the world

MAIN FEATURES

PUBLIC PARTICIPANTS

GERMANY ITALY SINGAPORE SWITZERLAND TURKEY BELGIUM

Should adhere soon (currently in “negotiation” phase):Norway, US, China, Japan, India, Australia, New Zealand, Nepal, Bangladesh, France, Portugal, Luxembourg

Have formally adhered already (with financial contribution):

And then many more…

PRIVATE PARTICIPANTS

5 Mill. €

3 Mill. €

Current sponsors (agreement for first 5 years):

1 Mill. €

1 Mill. €

1.6 Mill. €

Future sponsors:Construction and construction materials / Technology: Software and Data

Energy, Utilities, and Extraction / Banking and Finance / Multinationals

ASSOCIATE PARTICIPANTS

OECD Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development

WORLD BANK Disaster Risk Management Group

UNISDR United Nations International Srategy for Disaster Risk Reduction

UNESCO United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization

IASPEI International Association of Seismology and Physics of the Earth’s Interior

IAEE International Association of Earthquake Engineering

FIVE YEAR BUILD-UP FUNDING PLAN

Private Founders: 11.6 Mill. €Munich Re, Zurich Financial Services, AIR Worldwide, Willis, EUCENTRE

Public Founders: 3.4 Mill. €Italy, Germany, Switzerland, Belgium, Turkey, Singapore

Regional Programmes: 5.4 Mill. €Not under direct control, but tightly coordinated with GEM

Secretariat Facilities: 2.4 Mill. €Eucentre in-kind contribution

PRESENT FUNDING

Global Meetings:

engaging the community

EXPERT ELICITATION

1 Jan. 2009 - 31 March 2010

User-Needs Assessment

Worldwide ‘inventory’ of existing hazard/risk models, software and data

Fundamentals for subsequent GEM activities and developments: IT framework, Data models, Data exchange formats

Preliminary global hazard and risk calculations

Evaluation and Testing

GEM1 – GEM’s first products

Social – UN Population Division, United States Census Bureau International Database, Gridded Population World (GPWv3), GRUMP (urban/rural, population), LandScan population, GAUL (administrative boundaries),

Physical – Global Land Cover Characterisation Database, PAGER building inventory

Economic – World Bank/CIESIN’s global GDP grid

GEM1: GLOBAL DATABASES

Exposure Databases (e.g.):

GEM1: GLOBAL DATABASES

Social – CRED’s EM-DAT, Utsu catalogue

Physical – Cambridge Earthquake Damage Database

Economic – Munich Re’s NatCat Service

Consequences Databases (e.g.):

Implementation of GEM1 hazard computational infrastructure (PSHAcode development, data model and standards for data interchange)

Collection of PSHA input models from all regions of the world

Calculation of a first global seismic hazard map

GEM1: HAZARD

Evaluation of existing seismic risk software through urban and regional test-bed applications

Design of seismic risk engine for GEM: logic tree framework, analytical and empirical vulnerability methods

Preliminary global seismic risk maps using empirical vulnerability functions

GEM1: RISK

Design of model building and computational infrastructure

Design of database model and data interchange formats

Design of web portal architecture

GEM1: IT

data serviceprovider

application server

applicationportlet

browser viewto portal

browser viewto portlet

calculation serviceinterface

DB

XML

data

req u

est &

sub

mi t

codefor hazard,

risk, or othercalculation

XML calculation

request, result return

XML data request,

optionally submit

GLOBAL COMPONENTS

interacting with regions

engaging the global scientific community

5 RfPs released in mid-May 2009 9 international consortia, involving tens of organisations worldwide, submitted proposalsProposals have been peer-reviewed (14 experts from four continents)Selection by end of 2009, starting activities in January 2010

- Global Historical Catalogue and Database - Global Instrumental Seismic Catalogue- Global Active Fault and Seismic Source Database - Global Geodetic Strain Rate Model- Global Ground-Motion Prediction Equations (GMPEs)

HAZARD GCs

5 RfPs Drafted by an international scoping committeeSubjected to public online commenting To be released by end 2009

- Global Ontology and Taxonomy - Global Consequences Database - Global Exposure Database - Global Inventory Data Capture Tools- Global Vulnerability Functions

VULNERABILITY/EXPOSURE GCs

Two scoping workshops organised in collaboration with UNU-EHS, OECD, World Bank, IIASA, etc

Working group with experts from academia, industry, World Bank, OECD, is now working on the drafting of a possible roadmap

Roadmap draft will be subject of a public commentary process

Refined strategy and RfPs to be developed in early 2010

- Indicators for socio-economic vulnerability/impact - Modelling of 2nd-order indirect economic losses - Cost-benefit analyses

SOCIO-ECONOMIC IMPACT GCs

Cover whole regions and all countries in each region

Independently funded, bottom-up initiatives

“Approved” by GEM

Adopt GEM standards and computational infrastructure

Contribute regional and national data to global models

Contribute to build the GEM Global Components

REGIONAL PROGRAMMES

RPs REGIONAL OVERVIEW

www.globalquakemodel.org

FURTHER INFORMATION

Business PlanAvailable from websiteBeing widely disseminated

FURTHER INFORMATION

Bi-monthly e-NewsletterSubscribe at website

In order to better understand GEM user needs, a web-based survey has been created. We would like to invite you to go the GEM website and participate in it.

INVITING FEEDBACK

For the GEM Community to grow and become involved in GEM, an interactive page has been created on the GEM website that includes a forum. Through the creation of an account one becomes a member and can leave comments.