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Global Electrification:Trends and Challenges
David G. VictorProgram on Energy & Sustainable Development
Stanford University
presented at: Chinese Academy of Social Sciences
18 March 2005
What is Electrification?
At least three definitions:1. Access to Power
2. Use of Power
3. Pervasiveness of Electricity in the Economy
I will focus on #1 and #2.
PESD studies on “Energy Transitions”
• China: CASS Partnership– What explains China’s success with rural electrification?
South Africa: ERC Partnership– MARKAL/TIMES; market failure analysis; new modeling tools;
data assimilation
• India: several partnerships– Energy and Agriculture: general equilibrium modeling– Assessing electrification policies and patterns: peri-urban and
rural– For profit distributed generation (India & Mexico)– Advanced metering and rural grid control
This talk: three points
• Broad Patterns in Electrification–Global, Regional, National & Household
• Evidence on the Causes and Consequences of Electrification
• Industrial Organization & Electricity Policy
1. Broad Patterns in Electrification
Global Access to Electricity:1970 to 2030
People with Access to Electricity
People w/o Access to Electricity
2000 – Total population 6B
Source: World Energy Outlook 2002, IEA
1.6B/27%1.4B /17%
2030 – Total population 8.2B
1970 – Total population 3.7B
1.9B /51%
Regional Electricity Access: Limits
Source: International Energy Agency, WEO 2002
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Peo
ple
wit
ho
ut
Ele
ctri
cit
y A
cces
s (
mil
lio
ns)
South Asia (India)
Sub-Saharan Africa
East Asia (China)
Today
% Electrified, Southern Africa (1999): The Rural-Urban Divide
Country Urban RuralBotswana 26 2Lesotho 14 4Malawi 11 <1Mozambique 17 <1Namibia 26 5South Africa 80 46Swaziland 42 2Tanzania 13 1Zambia 18 1Zimbabwe 65 <1
Source: Gaunt, Load Research Programme, Energy Research Centre - Cape Town South Africa,
% Households Electrified by Income Quintile (1988)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Vietnam
Nicaragua S. Africa
Income Quintile
% H
ou
seh
old
s E
lec
trif
ied
Source: ESMAP, 2002. Energy Services for the World’s Poor.
1 2 3 4 5 1 2 3 4 5 1 2 3 4 5
Average Energy Demand by Income Segment:Brazil (1988)
Source: adapted from de Almeida and de Oliveira, 1995
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
up to 1 1 to 2 2 to 5 5 to 10 10 to 20 20 to 30
Multiples of monthly minimum wages (1=$50)
GJ/y
ear/
ho
use
ho
ld
firewood
liquid fuels
gas
electricity
Some Additional Issues: Measurement & Theory
•Measurement:– (eg.) Village vs. Household electrification in
India: » 85 % villages electrified» 37% households electrified
•Theory:–(e.g.) Is theft an electrification strategy?
Electricity Losses (%), 2001
Source: World Bank World Development Indicators, 2004
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40
Nigeria
India
Zimbabwe
Brazil
Mexico
Indonesia
Thailand
South Africa
China
OECD
2. On the Causes of Electrification
•Economy
•Urbanization
•Policy
Cause (and Consequence): Economic Growth
Consumption of Electric Power and Economic Output, 1999
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
45000
50000
0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000
Electric Pow er Consum ption (kw h/capita)
Eco
no
mic
Ou
tpu
t (G
DP
/cap
ita,
PP
P)
Norw ay
Luxembourg
Bahrain
FinlandCyprus
United States
Mexico
China
Source: World Development Indicators, 2002 (114 countries reporting both series)
1000 kw h/capita target
Source: World Development Indicators, 2002
Cause: Urbanization (2000)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
0 20 40 60 80 100 120
% Population Urban
% P
op
ula
tio
n E
lect
rifi
ed
Source: Urban population Data from World Development Indicators, 2004. World Bank. Electrification Rates from World Energy Outlook, 2002. IEA.
Gabon
Thailand
Vietnam
China
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
1920 1924 1928 1932 1936 1940 1944 1948 1952 1956
% o
f F
arm
s w
/Ele
ctr
ic S
erv
ice
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
Cause (?): Policy The U.S. Rural Electrification Experience
REA Created
Cause: PolicySouth Africa’s National Electrification Achievement
PAST
FUTURE?PRESENT
FUTURE!FUTURE?
Source: Gaunt, Load Research Programme, Energy Research Centre - Cape Town South Africa,
-3000
-2000
-1000
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
199
0
199
1
199
2
199
3
199
4
199
5
199
6
199
7
199
8
199
9
200
0
200
1
Urban
Rural
(thousands)
Additional Slides
Consequence (?): HealthGlobal Burden of Disease
0 5 10 15 20
Malnutrition
Alcohol use
Tobacco use
Illicit drug use
Unsafe sex or unwanted pregnancy
Hypertension
Physical inactivity
Poor water and sanitation
Occupational hazards
Outdoor air pollution
Indoor air pollution
Source: Smith (2000) and Murray and Lopez (1996), as summarized in WEA (2000).
% of Total
Consequence (?): EducationElectricity Consumption and Literacy (1999)
Consumption of Electric Power and Adult Illiteracy
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000 16000
Electric Power Consumption (kwh/capita)
Ad
ult
Ill
ite
rac
y R
ate
(%
of
tota
l p
op
ula
tio
n
ag
es
15
an
d a
bo
vc
)
Source: Illiteracy rate, adult total (% of people ages 15 and above) (SE.ADT.ILIT.ZS)
Industrial Organization & Policy: Implications for Electrification
• Load Management
• Organization of the Power System
South Africa, estimated typical winter week peak cycle, 2015
Source: Eskom (draft)
South Africa’s Free Electricity Experiment:Measured Effects (7-15 kWh/month)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
2000
Q1
2000
Q3
2001
Q1
2001
Q3
2002
Q1
2002
Q3
2003
Q1
Year/Quarter
Co
nsu
mp
tio
n i
n b
in (
kWh
/mo
nth
)
Pilot (Sales + EBSST)
Control (Sales)
Pilot (EBSST)
Source: Gaunt, Load Research Programme, Energy Research Centre - Cape Town South Africa.
Cost-saving Alternatives to Free Electricity: LPG
Peak Co-incidence Factor Annualized Savings (Rand)
100% 401
90% 353
80% 305
70% 258
60% 210
50% 162
Source: Howells et al., 2005. Draft