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Global Energy Security Forum Florida International University. M. L. Cessna Manager of Global Regulatory Affairs ExxonMobil Gas and Power Marketing November 9, 2010. Energy Evolution – Emergence to Foothold. Global Demand By Fuel. Quadrillion BTUs. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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This presentation includes forward-looking statements. Actual future conditions (including economic conditions, energy demand, and energy supply) could differ materially due to changes in technology, the development of new supply sources, political events, demographic changes, and other factors discussed herein (and in Item 1 of ExxonMobil’s latest report on Form 10-K). This material is not to be reproduced without the permission of Exxon Mobil Corporation.
Global Energy Security ForumGlobal Energy Security Forum
Florida International UniversityFlorida International University
M. L. CessnaManager of Global Regulatory AffairsExxonMobil Gas and Power MarketingNovember 9, 2010
2
Energy Evolution – Emergence to Foothold
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
Global Demand By Fuel
Quadrillion BTUs
• Today, oil and gas meet ~60% of the world’s energy needs –
wasn’t always so
• Significant energy mix changes take decades to gain a
foothold – Biomass > Coal > Oil > Gas
• Alternative fuels will help meet our energy needs (~2% by
2030)
Fossil fuels maintain prominence in fueling global
economic growth
1800 1900 20001850 1950
Biomass
Coal
Oil
Gas
Nuclear
Other Renewables
Hydro
3
Global Energy Demand Growth by Fuel
0
50
100
150
200
250
Oil Gas Coal Biomass/Other Nuclear Hydro/Geo Wind, Solar,Biofuels
0.7%
2005
2030
0.7%
2.0%
0.4% 2.3%
2.1% 9.9%
World Average Growth/Yr. ’05 to ’30 – 1.2%
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1980 2005 2030
~300 Energy Savings
Quadrillion BTUsDemand
Quadrillion BTUsDemand
4
Energy Demand by RegionEnergy Demand by Region
0
150
300
450
1980 2005 2030
0
150
300
450
1980 2005 2030
Quadrillion BTUsOECD
United States
Europe OECD
Other
Quadrillion BTUsNon OECD
China
India
Middle East
Other
Latin America
Africa
5
Power Generation Demand
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
1980 2005 2030
Quadrillion BTUsNorth America
Quadrillion BTUsEurope
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
1980 2005 2030
Asia PacificQuadrillion BTUs
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
1980 2005 2030
OilGas
Coal
Nuclear
Renewables
6
0
25
50
75
100
125
2000 2015 2030
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
2000 2015 20300
20
40
60
80
100
120
2000 2015 2030
Gas Supply and Demand
BCFDUnited States
Local Production
Unconventional
LNG
BCFDEurope Asia Pacific
BCFD
Conventional
Pipeline
7
Unconventional Gas – Paradigm Change
Comparison of Annual Unconventional Outlooks (EIA)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
2024
2026
2028
2030
Un
co
nv
en
tio
na
l Pro
du
cti
on
(B
CF
D)
2000 Outlook 2004 Outlook 2008 Outlook 2009 Outlook 2010 Outlook
57%
24%
26%
29%
62%
65% 67%
69%
P ercent of Total Lower 48 P roduction
• Outlook for unconventional gas is changing as new information becomes available
Source: EIA Annual Outlooks (2000-2010)
8
Unconventional Gas Resource
Horn River
Cook Inlet CBM
North Slope CBM
Haynesville
Marcellus
Woodford
Fayetteville
Powder River
Piceance
San Juan
Barnett Shale
Producing Shale Gas
Producing CBM
Tight Gas, Shale Gas & CBM Basins
Producing Tight Gas
Major Unconventional Gas Basins Montney
Eagle Ford
Granite Wash
Jonah & Pinedale
• Resources for ~100 years coverage at current demand
• Unconventional gas has extended coverage 60+ years
• Further unconventional gains expected
9
US & Canada Unconventional Supply
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
bcfd
Conventional Shale Tight CBM
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018 2021 2024 2027 2030
bcf
d
Barnett Fayetteville Woodford Haynesville
Marcellus Eagle Ford Horn River Montney & DuverneySource: Wood Mackenzie North America Long-Term Gas View, September 2010
• By 2020, shale gas plays throughout US & Canada ...
• ... offset 7 BCFD decline in conventional supply, and
• ... meet 13 BCFD in projected demand growth, by
• .... tripling the current level of production to 34 BCFD
Conventional & Unconventional Conventional & Unconventional Gas ProductionGas Production
Shale Gas ProductionShale Gas Production
10
Hydraulic Fracturing
Source: ExxonMobil
11
Conclusion
•Reliable and affordable energy is essential for economic growth
•Natural gas will play an increasing role in meeting future demand
•Sensible policies are needed to realize potential benefits