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This presentation includes forward-looking statements. Actual future conditions (including economic conditions, energy demand, and energy supply) could differ materially due to changes in technology, the development of new supply sources, political events, demographic changes, and other factors discussed herein (and in Item 1 of ExxonMobil’s latest report on Form 10-K). This material is not to be reproduced without the permission of Exxon Mobil Corporation. Global Energy Security Forum Global Energy Security Forum Florida International University Florida International University M. L. Cessna Manager of Global Regulatory Affairs ExxonMobil Gas and Power Marketing November 9, 2010

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Global Energy Security Forum Florida International University. M. L. Cessna Manager of Global Regulatory Affairs ExxonMobil Gas and Power Marketing November 9, 2010. Energy Evolution – Emergence to Foothold. Global Demand By Fuel. Quadrillion BTUs. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Page 1: Global Energy Security Forum Florida International University

This presentation includes forward-looking statements. Actual future conditions (including economic conditions, energy demand, and energy supply) could differ materially due to changes in technology, the development of new supply sources, political events, demographic changes, and other factors discussed herein (and in Item 1 of ExxonMobil’s latest report on Form 10-K). This material is not to be reproduced without the permission of Exxon Mobil Corporation.

Global Energy Security ForumGlobal Energy Security Forum

Florida International UniversityFlorida International University

M. L. CessnaManager of Global Regulatory AffairsExxonMobil Gas and Power MarketingNovember 9, 2010

Page 2: Global Energy Security Forum Florida International University

2

Energy Evolution – Emergence to Foothold

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

Global Demand By Fuel

Quadrillion BTUs

• Today, oil and gas meet ~60% of the world’s energy needs –

wasn’t always so

• Significant energy mix changes take decades to gain a

foothold – Biomass > Coal > Oil > Gas

• Alternative fuels will help meet our energy needs (~2% by

2030)

Fossil fuels maintain prominence in fueling global

economic growth

1800 1900 20001850 1950

Biomass

Coal

Oil

Gas

Nuclear

Other Renewables

Hydro

Page 3: Global Energy Security Forum Florida International University

3

Global Energy Demand Growth by Fuel

0

50

100

150

200

250

Oil Gas Coal Biomass/Other Nuclear Hydro/Geo Wind, Solar,Biofuels

0.7%

2005

2030

0.7%

2.0%

0.4% 2.3%

2.1% 9.9%

World Average Growth/Yr. ’05 to ’30 – 1.2%

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1980 2005 2030

~300 Energy Savings

Quadrillion BTUsDemand

Quadrillion BTUsDemand

Page 4: Global Energy Security Forum Florida International University

4

Energy Demand by RegionEnergy Demand by Region

0

150

300

450

1980 2005 2030

0

150

300

450

1980 2005 2030

Quadrillion BTUsOECD

United States

Europe OECD

Other

Quadrillion BTUsNon OECD

China

India

Middle East

Other

Latin America

Africa

Page 5: Global Energy Security Forum Florida International University

5

Power Generation Demand

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

1980 2005 2030

Quadrillion BTUsNorth America

Quadrillion BTUsEurope

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

1980 2005 2030

Asia PacificQuadrillion BTUs

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

1980 2005 2030

OilGas

Coal

Nuclear

Renewables

Page 6: Global Energy Security Forum Florida International University

6

0

25

50

75

100

125

2000 2015 2030

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

2000 2015 20300

20

40

60

80

100

120

2000 2015 2030

Gas Supply and Demand

BCFDUnited States

Local Production

Unconventional

LNG

BCFDEurope Asia Pacific

BCFD

Conventional

Pipeline

Page 7: Global Energy Security Forum Florida International University

7

Unconventional Gas – Paradigm Change

Comparison of Annual Unconventional Outlooks (EIA)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

2018

2020

2022

2024

2026

2028

2030

Un

co

nv

en

tio

na

l Pro

du

cti

on

(B

CF

D)

2000 Outlook 2004 Outlook 2008 Outlook 2009 Outlook 2010 Outlook

57%

24%

26%

29%

62%

65% 67%

69%

P ercent of Total Lower 48 P roduction

• Outlook for unconventional gas is changing as new information becomes available

Source: EIA Annual Outlooks (2000-2010)

Page 8: Global Energy Security Forum Florida International University

8

Unconventional Gas Resource

Horn River

Cook Inlet CBM

North Slope CBM

Haynesville

Marcellus

Woodford

Fayetteville

Powder River

Piceance

San Juan

Barnett Shale

Producing Shale Gas

Producing CBM

Tight Gas, Shale Gas & CBM Basins

Producing Tight Gas

Major Unconventional Gas Basins Montney

Eagle Ford

Granite Wash

Jonah & Pinedale

• Resources for ~100 years coverage at current demand

• Unconventional gas has extended coverage 60+ years

• Further unconventional gains expected

Page 9: Global Energy Security Forum Florida International University

9

US & Canada Unconventional Supply

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030

bcfd

Conventional Shale Tight CBM

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018 2021 2024 2027 2030

bcf

d

Barnett Fayetteville Woodford Haynesville

Marcellus Eagle Ford Horn River Montney & DuverneySource: Wood Mackenzie North America Long-Term Gas View, September 2010

• By 2020, shale gas plays throughout US & Canada ...

• ... offset 7 BCFD decline in conventional supply, and

• ... meet 13 BCFD in projected demand growth, by

• .... tripling the current level of production to 34 BCFD

Conventional & Unconventional Conventional & Unconventional Gas ProductionGas Production

Shale Gas ProductionShale Gas Production

Page 10: Global Energy Security Forum Florida International University

10

Hydraulic Fracturing

Source: ExxonMobil

Page 11: Global Energy Security Forum Florida International University

11

Conclusion

•Reliable and affordable energy is essential for economic growth

•Natural gas will play an increasing role in meeting future demand

•Sensible policies are needed to realize potential benefits