Global Environmental Change and Food Security in IGP Site 1,

Gujrat, Pakistan

Seminar on ‘GECAFS Research on Food System and Global Environmental Change in Indo-Gangetic Plains (IGP), 5-7 February 2009,

New Delhi, India

Study site 1: Gujrat

33

Projected Changes in Average Temperature of Northern and Southern Pakistan

(Corresponding to IPCC A2 Scenario)

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

1990s 2020s 2050s 2080s

Period

Tem

pera

ture

Cha

nge

(°C)

northern pp pakistan southern pp pakistanNorthern Pakistan Southern Pakistan

44

Projected Changes in Average Precipitation of Northern and Southern Pakistan

(Corresponding to IPCC A2 Scenario

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

1990 2020 2050 2080

Period

Prec

ipita

tion

Chan

ge (%

)

northern pp pakistan southern pp pakistanNorthern Pakistan Southern Pakistan

Some Projected Changes in River Flows due to Melting of HKH Glaciers

(As reported in recent studies)

IPCC TAR (2001): Increased glacier melt in the Himalayas may cause serious floods in Nepal, India and Bangladesh.

World Bank (2006): Western Himalayan glaciers will retreat for the next 50 years causing increase of Indus River flows. Then the glacier reservoirs will be empty, resulting in decrease of flows by up to 30% to 40% over the subsequent fifty years.

IPCC AR4 (2007): Glacier melt in the Himalayas is projected to increase flooding within next two to three decades. This will be followed by decreased river flows as the glaciers recede.

SN FS Component Key Determinant Description1 Production Size of land holdings Mostly Small: Less Productive3 Production Degree of self-sufficiency Low: e.g. Wheat Import 4 Production Principal crop? Wheat 5 Production Importance of cash crops Less

6 Production Importance of livestockHigh: Mostly self sufficient in Milk

production

7 Production Spatial variation inproduction

Irrigated: High productivityRainfed: Low productivity

8 Production Labor available orconstrained

Constraint only during ricetransplantation

9 Production Other biophysicalconstraints

Low soil productivity-Water erosion

Availability from Production

SN FS Component Key Determinant Description

1 Distribution Infrastructure Private distribution: GoodGovernment distribution: Fair 

2 Distribution Presence of storage/safety net

Not Enough Storage for fooditems for whole year 

3 Distribution Household storageEssential Characteristics inR.HH. But Medium level inurban areas

4 Distribution Is distribution skewedor balanced? How?

 Balanced for Wheat but poorfor fruit and vegetables

Availability from Distribution

SN FS Component Key Determinant Description

1 Exchange Importance ofexchange for HH  No

2 Exchange Ability to import food High

3 Exchange Major Imports  Wheat, Fruits, Vegetables

4 Exchange Major Exports  Rice

5 Exchange Role of remittances  Very High.

Availability from Exchange

SN FS Component Key Determinant Description

1 Affordability Household incomes Enough to afford basic foodrequirement only.

2 Affordability Prices of Food Items  Medium to High Affordability

3 Affordability Proportion of foodpurchased

Other then wheat, rice, and milkproducts most of them are purchased.

4 Affordability Percentage of Incomespent on food  45 percent  

5 Affordability Pricing policy support Less to Medium Support

6 Affordability Subsidized Food bygovernment

Least support ( Weekly discount bazaars, Govt. utility stores, Special packages) 

Access: Affordability

SN FS Component Key Determinant Description

1 Allocation Control over own production High/Complete 

2 Allocation Degree of market influence High 

3 Allocation Govt. intervention in markets

Weak (Strong in Wheat procurement only)

4 Allocation Market efficiency Low for fruit and vegetablesMedium to High for stable food

Access: Allocation

SN FS Component Key Determinant Description

1 Preference Preferred carbohydrate Wheat

2 Preference Preferred protein  Milk/ Pulses/ Poultry

3 Preference Consumption patterns No change 

4 Preference Changes withseasonality Yes

5 Preference Raw orProcessed/packed

Increasing trend ofProcessed/Packed food items

ACCESS: PREFERENCE

SN FS Component Key Determinant Description

1 Nutritional Value Food diversity Medium (Mostly people relayon wheat, rice and pulses)

2 Nutritional Value Main Source of Protein Pulses

3 Nutritional Value Other source of protein Poultry/Livestock

Utilization: Nutritional Value

SN FS Component Key Determinant Description

1 Food Safety Public awareness abouthygiene Low to Medium

2 Food Safety Presence of pathogens  Medium

3 Food Safety Substandardingredients in Food High 

4 Food Safety Presence of AgroChemicals in food Low 

Utilization: Food Safety