Global Environmental Change:Challenges to Science and Society

in Southeastern EuropeVesselin Alexandrov

Zagreb 2008

Conference participantsConference participants• > 120 participants • ca from 20 countries (SEE, CE, NEE, USA)• 4 keynote lectures:

– THE WEATHER AND CLIMATE - DIFFICULT SCIENCE PROBLEMS

– CLIMATE CHANGE AND THE BALKANS: REAL CONCERN OR "USELESS ARITHMETIC“

– GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE AND RELATED IMPACTS

– GLOBAL SOCIETY, SCIENCE AND ACTIONS

Conference topicsConference topics

•• 8 parallel sessions on 6 topics:8 parallel sessions on 6 topics:•• Global changeGlobal change•• Climate changeClimate change•• Environmental impactsEnvironmental impacts

•• IImpactsmpacts on Society and Economyon Society and Economy•• Local ChallengesLocal Challenges•• From Global to Local and Vice VersaFrom Global to Local and Vice Versa

Conference resultsConference resultsIncreasing rates of climate variability and

change are observed during the last decades in SEE:

a) Global warming has been registered since the second half of the 20th century causing an increase in frequency of various extreme weather events and natural hazards (such as droughts, heat waves, intensive precipitation, floods, storms, sea level rise, forest fires, water and wind soil erosion, etc) in the region of SEE

b) This tendency is expected to continue in the future

Past drying trends over Past drying trends over Europe (1950Europe (1950--2000)2000)

IPCC 4AR: Precipitation projectionsIPCC 4AR: Precipitation projections

Precipitation projectionsPrecipitation projections

(C. (C. SimotaSimota, 2008), 2008)

(C. (C. SimotaSimota, 2008), 2008)

PRUDENCE models ensemble, TEMPPRUDENCE models ensemble, TEMP••Change of temperature (°C) in Change of temperature (°C) in 20712071--2100 relative to 19612100 relative to 1961--1990 in the CECILIA target 1990 in the CECILIA target areas for emission scenarios areas for emission scenarios A2 (upper right panel) and B2 A2 (upper right panel) and B2 (bottom left panel).(bottom left panel).

(E. Copolla, ICTP) CECILIA, EC FP6, 2006-2009, http://www.cecilia-eu.org

PRUDENCE models ensemble, PRECPRUDENCE models ensemble, PREC••Change of precipitation Change of precipitation (%) in 2071(%) in 2071--2100 relative 2100 relative to 1961to 1961--1990 in the 1990 in the CECILIA target areas for CECILIA target areas for emission scenarios A2 emission scenarios A2 (upper right panel) and (upper right panel) and B2 (bottom left panel).B2 (bottom left panel).

(E. Copolla, ICTP) CECILIA, EC FP6, 2006-2009, http://www.cecilia-eu.org

BULGARIAN ACADEMY OF SCIENCESCENTRAL LABORATORY OF GEODESY

The Black Sea level as an indicator of climate and global change

TIGE GAUGES ALONG THE BLACK SEA COAST

16Global environmental change, 19 - 21 May 2008, Sofia , BULGARIA

BULGARIAN ACADEMY OF SCIENCESCENTRAL LABORATORY OF GEODESY

The Black Sea level as an indicator of climate and global change

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17Global environmental change, 19 - 21 May 2008, Sofia , BULGARIA

BULGARIAN ACADEMY OF SCIENCESCENTRAL LABORATORY OF GEODESY

The Black Sea level as an indicator of climate and global change

LONG-TERM SEA LEVEL RISE OF THE BLACK SEA

18Global environmental change, 19 - 21 May 2008, Sofia , BULGARIA

Changes in different types of clouds in Changes in different types of clouds in southeastern part of Europe southeastern part of Europe

• regional differences in cloudiness change regarding climate change in the southeastern part of Europe

• total cloudiness shows negative sign of changes, which means less cloudiness parallel with 0.5K increase in northern hemispherical temperature

• Ac, Cb and Cu increase; As, Ci, Sc, Ns and St decrease parallel with global warming

• the three geographical factors, namely the altitude, latitude and longitude explain partially the regional changes in different type of clouds

Use of Diatoms as Indicators of Use of Diatoms as Indicators of Human Impact and Climate Human Impact and Climate

ChangesChanges

•EC-DG XII AL:PE 1 project(Acidification of Mountain lakes:Palaeolimnology and Ecology) - 1991-1993.

•AL:PE 2 project (Acidification of Mountain lakes:Palaeolimnologyand Ecology) - 1993-1995.

•ENV4-CT95-0007 MOLARproject (Measuring and modelling the dynamic response of remote mountain lake ecosystem to environmental change) - 1996-1999.

• EVK1-CT-1999-00032EMERGE project (European Lake Ecosystem: Regionalisation Diagnostics and Socio-Economic Evaluation)

Conference resultsConference resultsClimate variability and change in SEE

affect all sectors with a different level of their impacts. However, water resources and agriculture are considered among the most vulnerable sectors in the SEE region due to negative impacts of unfavorable variations and changes in weather and climate.

Assessment of the climate change impact on the elements

of hydrological cycle in SEE

UVO-ROSTE- UNESCOProject results

The reduction in precipitation and increase The reduction in precipitation and increase in temperature result in a decrease e.g. of in temperature result in a decrease e.g. of river runoff river runoff

WaterWater resources should be under a resources should be under a focus focus of adaptationof adaptation optionsoptions-- by improving today’s by improving today’s water water management management toto address tomorrow’s problemsaddress tomorrow’s problems

SSelected Balkan and neighbor countries elected Balkan and neighbor countries

BG

RO

GR

H

AL

SI

HadCM3 B2HadCM3 B2 changes (in %) in sunflower yieldchanges (in %) in sunflower yieldfor 2011for 2011--2020, relative to current climate2020, relative to current climate

HadCM3 A2HadCM3 A2 changes (in %) in sunflower yieldchanges (in %) in sunflower yieldfor 2041for 2041--2050, relative to current climate2050, relative to current climate

HadCM3 A2HadCM3 A2 changes (in %) in sunflower yieldchanges (in %) in sunflower yieldfor 2071for 2071--2080, relative to current climate2080, relative to current climate

AgroAgro--Economic Vulnerability to Future Climate ChangeEconomic Vulnerability to Future Climate Change

EuropeEurope’’s Key Vulnerabilitiess Key Vulnerabilities

(EEA, 2004)(EEA, 2004)

Summer tourism Summer tourism –– PESETA projectPESETA project

Simulated conditions for summer tourism in Europe, according to a high-emissions scenario (IPCC A2); climate data from PRUDENCE project

• Climate Change and Viability: Impacts on Central and Eastern Europe

• 6FP: 2006-2009• ongoing and future

climate changes are analysed based on existing data and climate projections with very high detail to fulfil the needs of local and regional impact assessmentshydrological/water management

agricultural impact

energy impact

tourism impact

AAirir QQualityuality IIndexndex inin NiNišš--unhealthyunhealthy((19701970--20062006))

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Three raions (Cahul, Three raions (Cahul, Basarabeasca, and Basarabeasca, and Stefan Voda) having Stefan Voda) having biggest changes are biggest changes are located in water located in water deficient regiondeficient region

Territories with complex Territories with complex vulnerability show vulnerability show positive dynamic of positive dynamic of water covered areaswater covered areas

“Business“Business--asas--usual” usual” scenario looks to be the scenario looks to be the worst for Moldovaworst for Moldova

35Igor G. SIRODOEV. Change in Surface Water Resources as a Challenge to Moldova’s Society

www.dmcsee.orgwww.dmcsee.org

GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGEChallenges to Science and Society in South-Eastern Europe

The Role of Local Communities in Revising the National Action Programme for Mitigating Drought, Preventing and

Combating Desertification: Lessons from Romania

Doru Leonard IrimieMinistry of Agriculture and Rural Development doru.irimie@madr.ro

Sofia, 2008

37Sofia Conference on Global Environmental Change21.05.2008

Zones of desertification

THE GLOBE PROGRAMIN MACEDONIAN SCHOOLS

Natalija Aceska

Globe vision

A worldwide community of students, teachers, scientists, and citizens working together to better understand, sustain, and improve Earth's environment at local, regional, and global scales.

Globe mission

To promote the teaching and learning of science, enhance environmental literacy and stewardship, and promote scientific discovery.

Summary of the Conference•• Climate change is happening … and will Climate change is happening … and will

accelerate. Many contemporary indicators accelerate. Many contemporary indicators existexist

•• Models and scenarios are important for our Models and scenarios are important for our workwork

•• Change and variability are linkedChange and variability are linked•• Strong focus on agriculture and water Strong focus on agriculture and water

resources, less on other sectorsresources, less on other sectors•• Strong focus on impacts, less on driving Strong focus on impacts, less on driving

forcesforces

Summary of the Conference•• Global change <Global change <--> local places> local places•• Many regional initiatives exist Many regional initiatives exist

(CECILIA, CLAVIER, ADAGIO, DMC)(CECILIA, CLAVIER, ADAGIO, DMC)•• We have different skill and We have different skill and

sophistication levels, but we have a sophistication levels, but we have a committed science cadre whose efforts committed science cadre whose efforts could be multipliedcould be multiplied

QuestionsQuestions•• Is climate change a problem in this (SEE) Is climate change a problem in this (SEE)

region? region? YESYES•• What changes need to be made in policy and What changes need to be made in policy and

livelihood? livelihood? MANYMANY•• How do we move in those directions? How do we move in those directions?

UNCLEARUNCLEAR•• How do we change driving forces (energy, How do we change driving forces (energy,

land use change)? land use change)? UNCLEARUNCLEAR•• Who should act? How soon? Who should act? How soon? EVERYONE, EVERYONE,

YESTERDAYYESTERDAY

Questions•• What will be the difficulties? What will be the difficulties? ECONOMY, ECONOMY,

FOCUS, POLITICIANS FOCUS, POLITICIANS •• What is the role of the scientific community? What is the role of the scientific community?

FOCALFOCAL•• Role of Society? Role of Society? MUST LEAD NOT JUST MUST LEAD NOT JUST

FOLLOWFOLLOW•• Beyond our UNFCCC communications, Beyond our UNFCCC communications,

should we be doing integrated regional should we be doing integrated regional assessment(sassessment(s)? )? WE NEED TO TELL THE WE NEED TO TELL THE STORYSTORY

Challenges•• Should it be another Should it be another decadedecade before we meet before we meet

again?again?•• Should we have a (some) Should we have a (some) corecore project(sproject(s)?)?•• Regional collaboration (Western Balkan Regional collaboration (Western Balkan

Conference …) why not Conference …) why not allall of the Balkans?of the Balkans?•• Communication Communication betweenbetween institutions and institutions and

projectsprojects•• Teams Teams oror every one and institution for itself?every one and institution for itself?•• Involving Involving stakeholders and policystakeholders and policy--makersmakers•• Capacity building:Capacity building: experts & young colleaguesexperts & young colleagues•• Access to Access to datadata ……

Participants’ opinion•• The Conference provided a useful way to The Conference provided a useful way to

shareshare work and see potentials together work and see potentials together •• Stressing the need for Stressing the need for regional cooperationregional cooperation … …

small countries, big and common problemssmall countries, big and common problems•• Scientific cooperation => Scientific cooperation => synergismsynergism•• International International bibliographybibliography across fields might across fields might

lead also to collaborationlead also to collaboration•• Possibly the Possibly the drought initiativedrought initiative could be a core could be a core

focus for regional climate change problems focus for regional climate change problems

Participants’ opinion•• Although some people question Although some people question the human rolethe human role

in global warming, there are many signals in global warming, there are many signals already and scientific consensus (IPCC etc) is already and scientific consensus (IPCC etc) is that humanthat human--induced GHG warming warrants induced GHG warming warrants urgent attention urgent attention

•• ‘Public Weather Services’ (‘Public Weather Services’ (WMOWMO) to provide ) to provide leadership in use of weather, climate and water leadership in use of weather, climate and water information information

•• We need to access the most advanced We need to access the most advanced statistical techniquesstatistical techniques--methodological methodological development, development, sharing techniquessharing techniques, maybe not , maybe not so expensiveso expensive

Participants’ opinion•• Need to deal with the Need to deal with the perceptionperception (if not reality) (if not reality)

of ‘closed’ academic disciplinesof ‘closed’ academic disciplines•• VariousVarious invited, few responded outside the invited, few responded outside the

climate change communityclimate change community•• There is a coalition of There is a coalition of NGOsNGOs in BG (maybe in BG (maybe

elsewhere too); they found that public elsewhere too); they found that public perception is ahead of government; perception is ahead of government; government fails to take action government fails to take action --> vicious > vicious circle of inaction; realms of concern more than circle of inaction; realms of concern more than physical/scientificphysical/scientific

Participants’ opinion•• Explore EU funds for Explore EU funds for education and trainingeducation and training•• Education and change via the Education and change via the childrenchildren

…including multimedia…including multimedia•• Need also to Need also to train researcherstrain researchers to reach out to to reach out to

the public and mediathe public and media•• Overwhelming information: need to educate Overwhelming information: need to educate

for critical evaluation of facts leading to for critical evaluation of facts leading to action and helpingaction and helping to recruit new scientiststo recruit new scientists