Global Environmental Change Studies: Past, Present and Future

Professor Deliang Chen (陳德亮 )

ICSU Executive Director

Rcg.gvc.gu.se/dc

National Central University, Taipei, 24 November, 2010

Outline

• Earth System Science (ESS)

• Global Change and Global Environnemental Changes: an example from China

• ICSU’s perspective on the evolution of the international initiatives/programmes in Global Change research

• Future of Earth System Science

2

Definitions of ESS

• 1. Earth science (fluid and solid earth sciences)

• 2. Extended climate science

• atmosphere and ocean plus …

• hydrosphere, biosphere, biogeochemistry, ecology …

• Oriented to extending climate models to the next generation, and providing the observations needed to constrain them

• 3. The science of the integrated earth system

• The interactions between the biophysical and human parts of the Earth

• Draws from biophysical sciences, ecology, social sciences, economics

• Uses concepts and tools of complex system science (CSS): self-organisation, hierarchy, emergence, adaptation, …

• 4. Sustainability Science: the science of the integrated earth system, applied to sustainable development

Earth System Science

Advanced Climate Science and Earth Observation

Vitousek (1994)

What is Global Change?

• Nitrogen fixation • Temperature• Biodiversity………..

• Global-scale changes that affect the functioning of the Earth System

• Much more than climate change

• Socio-economic as well as biophysical

For example, changes in:

Reid &

Mille

r (1989)

NOAA• Atmosphere composition

• Population

• N in the coastal zone

• Forest cover

• Fisheries exploitation

U.S

. Bu

rea

u o

f the

Ce

nsu

s

Ma

cken

zie e

t al (2

00

2)

Rich

ard

s (19

91

), WR

I (19

90

)

FAO

What is Global Environmental Change?

• Nitrogen fixation

• Temperature

• Biodiversity………..

For example, changes in:

The Planetary Response to the drivers of the Anthropocene

From: Steffen et al. 2004

”the great acceleration of the human entreprise”,

1900 1950 2000

CO2, N2O, CH4 concentrations

Overfishing

Land degradation

Loss Biodiversity

…..

2010

-202

0

Gong, D.-Y., C.-H. Ho, D. Chen, Y. Qian, Y.-S. Choi, and J. Kim, 2007: Weekly cycle of aerosol-meteorology interaction over China, Journal of

Geophysical Research, Vol. 112, D22202, doi:10.1029/2007JD008888.

Gong et al., J.G.R., 2006; 2007

An Example from China

Anomalies of temperature from Sunday through Saturday.29 stations, JJA, 2001-2006; Error bars are 1 standard error about the 29-sample mean.

Anomalous frequency of light rains from Sunday through Saturday. P 5mm/day, 29 stations, JJA, 2001-2006; Error bars are 1 standard error about the 29-sample mean.

Source: United Nations Statistics Division

Globe: Cities with more than 100,000 people in 1997

China:

448 with population >0.5 million, 174 with population >1 million. Most in East China. By 2003

PM10

PM10, JJA, 2001-2006. ‘’ : PM10 stations, ‘’: R2 grids, ‘O’: radio-sounding temperature stations

Profile of temperature anomaly from Sunday through Saturday in troposphere. Shown here is the mean of 15 radiosonde observations. Unit: C. 1100UTC.

Radio-sounding

Data sources: Durre et al., 2006. J. Climate, 19, 53-68

Profile of temperature anomaly from Sunday through Saturday in troposphere. Shown here is the mean of 29 R2 grids. Unit: C.

T, R2

Anomaly of the daily mean vertical air velocity (ω) in the lower troposphere between 925 and 850 hPa levels at 29 R2 grids during 2001-2005.

Anomaly of the horizontal wind velocity in lower troposphere between 925 and 850hPa levels, shown as the average from radiosonde observations. Error bars are 1 standard error about the sample mean. 1100UTC, data availability >90%.

Radio-sounding

Data sources: Durre et al., 2006. J. Climate, 19, 53-68

1956-2005.

Whole China. JJA.

0.05 level

Climate change implication…

Linear trend of the number of light rain days during the time period 1956-2005. Unit: days/10yr. JJA.

Regional mean trends [<10mm/day]:

1956-05: -1.7days/10yr [～ 20 ％ ]

1980-05: -2.4days/10yr, 0.01 level

Climate implication…

Conclusion:

• There are significant, consistent weekly cycles in meteorological variables in east China during summer, most likely connected to the weekly cycle of air pollution, and a result of aerosol-atmosphere interaction.

• The significant decreasing of light rains is likely related to the enhanced human activities through the increasing air pollution.

Researching the Earth system

Our approach tounderstandingthe Earth Systemhas been to cutthe “big picture”into small pieces.

Some of thepieces lack detail,others are missingentirely - but…

Researching the Earth system

Earth SystemScience andsustainabledevelopmentneed a systemicapproach -

someone needsto put together the puzzle!

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ICSU

• Founded in 1931, based on two earlier bodies known as the International Association of Academies (IAA; 1899-1914) and the International Research Council (IRC; 1919-1931)

• 121 National Members (representing 141 countries/regions), and 30 International Scientific Union Members

• 19 Interdisciplinary Bodies (e.g. World Climate Research Programme: WCRP)

• Unique worldwide access to intellectual resources

ICSU initiated the International Geophysical Year (IGY) in 1957-1958

21

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ICSU GEC programmes

IGBPIGBP

WCRPWCRP

IHDPIHDP

DIVERSITASDIVERSITAS

International Human Dimensions Programme

World Climate Research

Programme

International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme

International Programme of

Biodiversity Science

Global Environmental Change (GEC) Research

1980: WCRP

1987: IGBP

1996: IHDP

2002: DIVERSITAS

Earth System Science Partnership (2001)

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GEC Programme Reviews

Reviews

• IHDP: 2006• ESSP: 2008• IGBP: 2009• WCRP: 2009• DIVERSITAS: tba

Common recommendations

• Priority setting• Effectiveness• Integrated research

framework

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Institutional evolution

WCRP DIVERSITASIHDPIGBP

ESSP

GCP

GWSP

GECHH

GECAFS

GCOS

GTOS

GOOS

GEO BON

START

GLP

IRDR

PECS

GEWEX

CLIVAR

Etc...

AIMES

IHOPE

Etc...

ESG

LOICZ

Etc...

bioSUSTAINABILITY

bioSERVICES

Etc...

Three Decades of Global Change Research

• Extraordinary progress in understanding the Earth System and consequences of human action

• Global environmental change outpacing response

• Current path is unsustainable• Sound basis for actions to mitigate

and adapt to global change

Need far more information and understanding to solve the problem that global environmental

change poses for our societies27

• Scientific evolution of convergence towards integrated Earth system science

Integrated Earth System Science

(growing capability of predicting the Earth system implications of anthropenic change)

Visioning ProcessGoal:To engage the scientific

community to explore options and propose steps to implement a holistic strategy for Earth system research. This strategy will both encourage scientific innovation and address policy needs

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Earth System Visioning Process

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Three Step Process

Online Consultation (Aug 2009)•1,016 registered users from 85 countries•323 research questions posted

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Three Step Process

Visioning Earth System research meeting (Sept 2009)

•Early career & senior scientists•Science-policy experts•Funders•GEC programs•ICSU and ISSC

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Three Step Process

Review Draft

Dec 2009 to Mar 2010• 46 Institutions• 202 Individuals

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Three Step Process

Open ForumInstitutional Support Meeting

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Three Step Process

Transition Meeting

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Future outlook

A new framework is neededMobilize international global change scientific community around an unprecedented decade of focused and intensive research

Human Impacts on

System

Human Impacts on

System

Human Responses

Human Responses

Earth System Function

Earth System Function

Impacts of Global

Change on People

Impacts of Global

Change on People

Global Sustainability Research37

Transition

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Grand Challenge #1: Forecasting

Improve the usefulness of forecasts of future environmental conditions and their consequences for people

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Grand Challenge #2: Observations

Develop the observation systems needed to manage global and regional environmental change

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Grand Challenge #3: Thresholds

Determine how to anticipate, recognize, avoid and adapt to abrupt global environmental change

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Determine how to anticipate, recognize, avoid and adapt to abrupt global environmental change

(Lenton et al, 2008)

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Grand Challenge #4: Responses

Determine what institutional, economic and behavioural changes can enable effective steps toward global sustainability.

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Grand Challenge #5: Innovation

Encourage innovation (coupled with sound mechanisms for evaluation) in developing responses to achieve global sustainability

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Future Global Change Research

• Support integrated science

• Ensure effective policy impact and communications

• Support stakeholder engagement, trans-disciplinary research approaches and co-production of knowledge

• Sufficient long-term research funding

• Foster collaborative research networks that are truly global in scope

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A new 10 year initiative

• Deliver at global and regional scales the knowledge that societies need to effectively respond to global change while meeting economic and social goals;

• Coordinate and focus international scientific research to address the “Grand Challenges in Global Sustainability;”

• Engage a new generation of researchers in the social, economic, natural, health, and engineering sciences in global sustainability research.

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Launching the Initiative