Technical Seminar on Accreditation -Delivering Confidence in the Provision of Energy

Organized by

Sri Lanka Accreditation Board for Conformity Assessment &

Sri Lanka Sustainable Energy Authority

Global Importance of Sustainable Energy and Sri Lankan Context

Thusitha SugathapalaDirector General

Sri Lanka Sustainable Energy AuthorityMinistry of Environment & Renewable Energy

09th June 2014

• The Facts Development, Energy and Environment

• Solutions for Sustainability• Energy Stock• Renewable Energies

RE Technologies Cost of REs

• National Energy Scenario Features of Energy Sector Energy Intensity in Economy Renewable Energy Resources

OVERVIEW

2

Development and Energy

FACTS

ENERGY DEVELOPMENT

3

Energy and Fossil Fuel Global Primary Energy Supply by Source (in EJ)

FACTS

Nuclear

Hydro Electricity

Coal

Oil

Natural Gas

Biomass

Fossils81%

Other

Fossil Fuel Era 4

Role of Renewable Energy Global Primary Energy Supply by Source in 2010

FACTS

Oil 31.2%

Coal 27.4%

Natural Gas 22.0%

Nuclear 2.7%

Traditional Biomass

8.47%

Biofuels 0.67%

Modern Biomass Heat/Electricity

3.27% Geothermal

Heat/Electricity 0.18%

Hydro power 3.36%

Wind Power 0.52%

Solar PV / CSP

0.07% Solar Thermal Hot water/Heat

0.17%

Renewables 16.7%

5

Role of Renewable Energy Global Electricity Production in 2012

FACTS

Fossil fuels and nuclear

78.3% Hydro power

16.5%

Other renewables

5.2%

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

Inst

alle

d C

aaci

ty (

GW

)

6

Extraction and Consumption of Resources

FACTS

Construction Minerals

Biomass

Fossil Energy Carriers

Ores and Industrial Minerals

GDP

GDPTrillion International Dollars

Material ExtractionBillion tons

Depletion of Natural Resources7

Extraction and Consumption of Resources Eg: Oil

FACTS

The Energy Crisis ! 8

FACTS Extraction and Consumption of Resources

Fossil Fuel Reserve to Production Ratios

0

50

100

150

200

250

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Re

se

rve

to

Pro

du

cti

on

Ra

tio

(Y

ea

rs)

Year

Oil

Coal

Gas

The Energy Crisis !

FACTS

10

Energy Efficiency Eg: Lighting

Water Pumping

FACTS

11

Energy Efficiency Eg: Transport

100% 20%

Engine Losses

63

%

Standby/ Idle

15

%

Accessories2%

Driveline Losses

6%

14%

Energy Efficiency Comfort

FACTS

12

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

0 1 2 3 4 5 6

Eff

icie

ncy

Regulator Setting

Fan 1

Fan 2

Fan 3

Fan 4

Fan 5

Fan 6

Fan 7

Fan 8

Fan 9

Fan 10

Average

GNI / Capita / Year

Development and Food Consumption

FACTS

USA

UK

Brazil

China

India

More Meat More Energy + More Water + More Land

Cost of Living Arithmetic average of prices in four commodity sub-

indices (food, non-food agro items, metals, and energy)

FACTS

14

Carrying Capacity of Biosphere (Overloading!) Effects on natural cycles (Sustainability!)

FACTS

The Environment Crisis !

Climate Change and GHG Emissions Drivers of CC is anthropogenic substances and processes

that alter the Earth’s energy budget Main substances affecting the Earth’s energy budget is

GHGs GHG emissions continue accelerate despite reduction

efforts - due to fossil fuel combustion industrial processes The current trajectory of global annual and cumulative

emissions of GHGs is inconsistent with widely discussed goals of limiting global warming at 1.5 to 2 C above the pre-industrial level

Main drivers of GHG emissions are growth in economic output and population, outpacing emission reductions from improvements in energy intensity

Future development pathways and energy sector will be shaped by climate change than resource depletion.

FACTS

16

Main drivers of GHG emissions are growth in economic output and population.

17

MAJOR FINDINGS

Increased use of coal relative to many other energy sources has reversed a long‐ standing pattern of gradual de-carbonization of the world’s energy supply

The decline of energy intensity of economic output has had an offsetting effect on global emissions arisen from growth in population

Source: IPCC AR5, 2014

Growth in Economic output is the major driver of GHG emissions

SOLUTIONS FOR SUSTAINABILITY Drivers

Socio Economic Development Energy Security Environment Sustainability

The Solutions

18

Energy Security

Environment Sustainability

Socio-Economic Development

Sustainable Energy

(A) Developing Renewable Energy

(B) Improving Energy Efficiency

(C) Rational Use of Energy

A

B C

Energy Industry - The Targets Energy demand

19

World primary energy demand by scenario

SOLUTIONS FOR SUSTAINABILITY

Energy Industry - The Targets Technology options for mitigation of GHG emissions

20

World energy-related CO2 emissions abatement in the450 Scenario relative to the New Policies Scenario

Role of RE and EE

SOLUTIONS FOR SUSTAINABILITY

Buildings Evolution of energy intensity for materials

21Source: The Energy Report – 100% Renewable Energy By 2050, WWF

SOLUTIONS FOR SUSTAINABILITY

Buildings Evolution of energy intensity in the buildings sector

22Source: The Energy Report – 100% Renewable Energy By 2050, WWF

SOLUTIONS FOR SUSTAINABILITY

Buildings: Main Areas of Challenges

23

Refurbishment to Transform Existing Buildings into EEB Systems and equipment for energy use for existing buildings EnvelopeSolutions for cultural heritageSystemic approach for existing buildings

Neutral/Energy Positive New Buildings Systems and equipment for energy use for new buildings Systemic approach for new buildings

ENERGY EFFICIENT DISTRICT/COMMUNITIESIntegration between buildings, grid, heat network … Systems and Equipment for energy production

District and urban design Systems and Equipment

for energy use Storage of energy: thermal,

electrical or other Retrofitting

Systems and Equipment for energy use

Storage of energy Energy production Quality indoor environment Design – integration of new

solutions Envelope and components Mass customization Automation and control Life cycle analysis (LCA) Energy Management

Systems Labeling and standardization Materials: embodied energy

and multi-functionality Diagnosis and predictive

maintenance

Relationship between user and energy

Geoclustering Value chain and

SMEs focus Knowledge transfer Business models,

organizational and financial models (including ESCOs)

Organizational Aspects

Technological Aspects

Cross-Cutting Challenges

SOLUTIONS FOR SUSTAINABILITY

Interventions in Transport Energy Efficient & Environmentally Sustainable Transport

System (E3ST) - Energy intensity reduction by improving technical efficiency- Emission intensity reduction by cleaner fuels- Structural and systems efficiency improvement - Production and resource efficiency improvement

24

SOLUTIONS FOR SUSTAINABILITY

ENERGY STOCK The Resources

Annual Solar Energy

Solar Energy for Wind

Exploitable Wind Energy

Solar Energy for Photosynthesis

Renewable Geothermal Energy

Hydro Power

Solar Energy for Evaporation of Water

Total Geothermal Energy(<10 km)

Total Coal Reserve

Exploitable Coal Reserve

Total Oil Reserve

Exploitable Oil Reserve

Total Gas Reserve Exploitable Gas Reserve

Exploitable Oil Shale

Uranium for Conventional Nuclear Reactors

Uranium for Breeder Nuclear Reactors

Total Energy Consumption of the World

Energy Received by the Earth

Power = 122 PW

Energy = 3,850,000 EJ/y

Global Energy Demand: 445 EJ/y

25

RENEWABLE ENERGIES RE Technologies

26

Tidal

Wave

Hydro

Solar

Wind

Biomass

Resource / Technology

Typical Characteristics Cost (LKR/kWh)

Large hydro 10 MW - 20,000 MW 4 to 10Small hydro 0.1 kW - 10 MW 7 to 50Wind (On-shore) 1.5 MW - 3.5 MW 7 to 22Wind (Off-shore) 1.5 MW - 7.5 MW 16 to 33Wind (Small scale) 0.1 kW - 100 kW 20 to 46Biomass Power 20 kW - 20 MW 10 to 23Geothermal Power 1 MW - 100 MW 7 to 13

Solar PV (module)Efficiency: (i) Crystalline 12 - 19 %, (ii) Thin film 4 - 20%

-

Solar PV (Concentrating)

Efficiency: 25% -

Rooftop solar PV 2 - 5 kWpeak 22 to 60Utility-scale solar PV 200 kW - 100 MW 20 to 46Concentrating solar thermal power (CSP)

50 - 500 MW (trough);10 - 20 MW (tower)

26 to 52

RENEWABLE ENERGIES Cost of REs

27

NATIONAL ENERGY SCENARIO Primary Energy Supply by Source

28

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

Pri

mar

y E

ner

gy

Su

pp

ly (

kTO

E)

Year

New RE

Large Hydro

Coal

Petroleum

Biomass

Hydro

Coal

Oil

Biomass

New RE

Electricity Sector – Gross Generation

29

NATIONAL ENERGY SCENARIO

Hydro

Coal

Oil

New RE

Large Hydro 23.1%

Oil 58.8%

Coal 11.9%

NRE 6.2%

Sectoral Energy Consumption by Source in 2011

30

NATIONAL ENERGY SCENARIO

Biomass72.8%

Petroleum11.6%

Coal2.3%

Electricity13.4%

Industrial Sector

Biomass78.0%

Petroleum8.8%

Electricity13.3%

Household, Commercial & others Sector

Electricity Sector

Gasoline27.3%

Diesel60.5%

Av. Fuel12.1%

Transport Sector

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

3,500,000

4,000,000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Act

ive

Veh

icle

Fle

et

Year

Motor Cycles

Three Wheelers

Motor Cars

Dual Purpose Vehicles

Buses

Lorries

Land Vehicles

Transport Sector Dominated by Road Transport

31

NATIONAL ENERGY SCENARIO

The Issue

Active Vehicle Fleet

Life Style Electricity System Load Profile

32

NATIONAL ENERGY SCENARIO

Life Style Electricity Consumption

33

NATIONAL ENERGY SCENARIO

Electricity Consumption by Energy Service in a Typical Household

Electricity Consumption by Energy Service in a Typical Office Building

Refrigerator51%

Lights8%

TV13%

Rice Cooker12%

Water Pump4%

Blender1%

Iron4%

Others7%

Water pumping

0.32% Lighting15.97%

Lifts2.17%

Air Conditioning

77.54%

Office Equipments

& Others4%

CEB Generation Plan - Base Case 2013-2032

34

NATIONAL ENERGY SCENARIO

Existing Major Hydro 28%

New Major Hydro

0%

NCRE 6%

Coal 34%

Oil 32%

Energy Mix - 2015

Existing Major Hydro 22%

New Major Hydro

2% NCRE

8%

Coal 62%

Oil 6%

Energy Mix - 2020

Existing Major Hydro 12%

New Major Hydro

2%

NCRE 6%

Coal 79%

Oil 1%

Energy Mix - 2032

Industrial Competitiveness

35

ENERGY INTENSITY IN ECONOMY

Sri Lanka

Energy Intensity

Energy Management National Targets (by 2020)

36

ENERGY INTENSITY IN ECONOMY

Technology / Process Annual Saving (GWh)

Technology / Process Annual Saving (GWh)

Energy Labeling Program Efficient motors 185 Ceiling Fans 35 Building Management System 20

Tubular Fluorescent Lamps 65 Efficient office equipment 16 Magnetic Ballasts 80 Solar water heaters 5 Refrigerators 16 Telecommunication 10Efficient lighting 173 Efficient air compressors 11

Air Conditioning 250 Eliminating Incandescent Lamps 205

ISO 50001 375 Green Buildings 550

Total 1,990 GWh

Categories Conventional RE Resources

New Renewable Energy (NRE) Resources

Conventional RE Resources Conventional Biomass

Large Hydro

NRE Resources Small Hydro

Wind Solar Modern Biomass / Biofuels Geothermal Ocean Thermal/ Wave/ Tidal

37

Already being harnessed

Yet to be harnessed

RENEWABLE ENERGY RESOURCES

Sustainability ?

NRE Targets – 20% by 2020

38

RENEWABLE ENERGY RESOURCES Grid Connected Power Plants - Progress

Approval Stage

Small Hydro

Wind Biomass Solar Total

No. MW No. MW No. MW No. MW No. MW

Commissioned 125 264.3 12 98.45 6 20 3 1.36 146 384.2

Energy Permit 90 181.4 2 11.3 16 92.8 4 40.0 112 325.4Provisional Approval 88 100.7 2 20.0 12 55.2 1 10.0 103 185.8

Challenges for RE Electricity Generation Constraints in national grid in absorbing RE based

electricityo Exceeding substation / transmission capacitieso Time / seasonal variability + Lack of storage optionso Non-dispatchable generation o Limitations in Peak-matchingo Geographical mismatch of resource and demand

Lack of dynamic modelling / advanced forecasting tools and technical knowhow

Lack of local capacity for manufacture Lack of R&D efforts Higher initial costs of new REs

RENEWABLE ENERGY RESOURCES

39

Thank You

40