Global Infrastructure Trend Monitor - European Transport Outlook 2008-2012

Global Infrastructure:Trend MonitorEuropean Transport Edition: Outlook 2008–2012

ADVISORY

TheTrend Monitor offers a new perspective,allowing infrastructure investment to bedirectly compared across geographies. Inside we look into the medium-term future of European transport and reveal the top performers.

Key insights:reflections on baseline forecasts

Introduction:investing in European transport infrastructure

Present and future:market size and rate of growth

A local touch

Concluding thoughts

2 Global Infrastructure: Trend Monitor

KPMG is delighted to introduce the GlobalInfrastructure: Trend Monitor. This firstedition focuses on developments in the European transport infrastructure market. The report is intended to provide abasis for a more informed debate on therelative attractiveness of different marketsacross the region.

Existing publications tend to focus either on the short term, identifyingopportunities that are about to come tothe market, or the long term, estimatingthe size of the required investment over decades to come. The GlobalInfrastructure: Trend Monitor ispositioned between the two and itpresents a medium-term view of the market.

We believe that the baseline forecasts offuture transport infrastructure marketspresent a step change in the informationavailable. Our estimates are directlycomparable across the 30 countriescovered. They build on reliable datasources and a small number ofassumptions that are fully explicit.

The Global Infrastructure: Trend Monitoralso uses KPMG member firms’experience in each of the markets toconsider the baseline forecasts in context.

Transport infrastructure markets willcontinue to develop and KPMG’s GlobalInfrastructure: Trend Monitor will evolvewith them. We will revisit our forecastsand our forecasting method in the future as well as explore other sectorsand geographies.

Kai Rintala Foreword Head of Infrastructure Intelligence

KPMG in the UK

Key insights: reflections on baseline forecasts

Global Infrastructure: Trend Monitor1

presents the results of econometric modelingand discusses them in a wider context. The first edition of the trend monitor focuseson the medium-term view of transportinfrastructure investment2 in 30 Europeancountries. The fundamental aim of the reportis to be an enabler of a more informeddebate on the medium-term opportunitiesacross the continent.

Global Infrastructure: Trend Monitor 3

1 KPMG’s Global Infrastructure: Trend Monitor has been produced in collaboration with Dr Stephen Gruneberg.2 By transport infrastructure we mean buildings and structures used in roads, rail, ports and airports.

And by investment we mean spending on new build as well as repairs and maintenance.

Comparing transport infrastructure markets across countries is not straightforward.The data to do so does not exist. It must be produced by econometric modeling.Our method is explained in the last section of this report. The underlying dataset weused was produced by Eurostat.3 We believe it to be the most reliable and uniformof the datasets currently available.4 The cleaned historical data and detailed baselineforecasts are included as Appendix 1.

At first glance these results appear to beconforming to conventional wisdom. The value of the trend monitor to theplayers in the global infrastructuremarket will be in the foundation itprovides for comparing and debating the attractiveness of different transportmarkets in the medium-term. Webelieve that we have successfullyimproved the method for producingestimates of this nature. We have everyreason to expect that this will make ourforecasts more accurate. Nevertheless,they will always remain just that: estimates.

Local insights

We do not think that our forecasts alonecan determine the attractiveness of aparticular market. Our modeling relies onpast trends to predict the future and willalways fail to spot sudden shifts and/orshocks in the market. There are anumber of factors that could contributeto such changes.

These range from political stability to the existence of appropriate legal andregulatory frameworks. We have,therefore, employed our member firms’presence in each of the 30 markets to offer a brief assessment of theforecasts. This is illustrated in the ‘ALocal Touch’ section.

Overall we expect our estimates toprove conservative. The intelligence onthe ground suggests that somecountries supported by European Unionfunds plan to invest considerably morein transport infrastructure over the nextfive years than our model has predicted.

Star

Based solely on our modelwe estimate there is nomarket that is both large and forecast to have rapidmedium-term growth. Sucha market would classify as a Star.

However, when KPMGmember firms’ localintelligence is taken intoaccount along with ourmodeling Spain emergesas a Star market.

Tigers

Our model shows sixcountries are estimated togrow relatively fast from2008 to 2012. We havelabeled Bulgaria, Estonia,Iceland, Latvia, Lithuania andRomania as Tigers. Thesemarkets grow out of a basethat is very small incomparison to the Large and mature markets.

When our model iscombined with KPMGmember firms’ localintelligence, Ireland,Poland, Portugal andSlovakia emerge as Tiger markets.

Large and mature

Based solely on our model,there are five countries thatare large but are predicted togrow relatively slowly. Wehave classified France,Germany, Italy, Spain and theUK as Large and maturemarkets. These markets areforecast to represent 67percent of transportinfrastructure investmentbetween 2008 and 2012 inall the markets examined.

Small and mature

The remaining countries welooked at were named Smalland mature markets. Theyare both small and predictedto have slow growth rates inthe five years leading to2012.

The following chart highlights key insights from the combination of our modeling and local intelligence.

There are four key categories that emerge:


3 Eurostat, (2007), Table NAMA P16 K, Gross Fixed Capital Investment by 6 asset types aggregates at constant 1995 prices and exchange rates inmillions of Euros, Brussels, European Commission

4 We chose not to analyse planned or declared expenditures. This was because we felt that they could not easily be made comparable acrosscountries and/or they could be influenced by the political processes.

We discuss the transport infrastructuremarkets in 30 European countries. In particular, the focus is on evolvinginvestment patterns over the five years from 2008 to 2012.

Estimated future size and forecastgrowth rates provide a baseline against which future opportunities can be discussed. We have a view of the prospects in the marketsthrough our member firms’ presence ineach country. This intelligence is vital inplacing the baseline forecasts inappropriate context.

The forecasts presented are based onhistorical Gross Fixed CapitalFormation (GFCF) data harmonized byEurostat. We felt that this was themost reliable and comparable datasetavailable. The results should,nevertheless, be read with caution asthis type of prediction is subject toconsiderable uncertainty. The past isnot always a reliable indicator of thefuture. We have aspired to betransparent both in the method wehave used and the assumptions wehave made. These are detailed on thelast pages of this report. The modelingresults are included as Appendix 1.

This edition of KPMG’s Global Infrastructure:Trend Monitor is the first in a new series ofreports looking at global infrastructuremarkets. The aim of the series is to facilitate amore sophisticated debate on the medium-termopportunities in the global marketplace.

Introduction: investing in European transport infrastructure


The patterns that emerge from the econometric modeling areextremely informative. Figure 1 below shows the actual size ofmarkets in 2006. As there is a delay in the preparation of nationalaccounts data, these are the most up to date and reliable. All figuresin this report are in 2005 prices in order to facilitate comparisons.Rather than absolute size, it is the relative size of the markets that isof most interest in comparing countries.

Present and future: market size and rate of growth


0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 9,000 10,000Austria

BelgiumBulgaria

Cyprus

Czech RepublicDenmark

Estonia

FinlandFrance

Germany

GreeceHungary

IcelandIreland

ItalyLatvia

LithuaniaLuxembourgNetherlands

Norway

PolandPortugalPortugalRomaniaSlovakiaSlovenia

SpainSweden

SwitzerlandTurkey

United Kingdom

Figure 1. Expenditure on transport infrastructure in 2006 (in €€ millions)

Data: EurostatAnalysis: KPMG in the UK

France,Germany,Italy, Spainand the UKwere by farthe largestmarkets byexpenditure in 2006.


Forecastgrowth ratesare below fourpercent foreach of thefive biggestcountries byexpenditure.

Figure 2. Forecast average annual growth rates in transport infrastructure

expenditure 2008-2012 (in percent)

Figure 2 indicates that the five majormarkets identified in Figure 1 all haveforecast average annual growth rates5

over five years that are below fourpercent. Germany spent the most ontransport infrastructure in 2006 but hasthe lowest forecast growth rate of thecountries analyzed.

Figure 2 also brings into sharp focus thesix countries that are predicted, onaverage, to grow over five percent perannum. These countries, however, allhave relatively small markets.

Based on the two variables illustrated infigures 1 and 2 we may classify thetransport infrastructure markets intofour categories. Figure 3 delineatesSmall and mature, Large and mature,Tiger and Star markets. This modelingoutput is not the final classification ofthese markets. In the next section weuse this as a baseline to assess thefuture in a more qualitative manner.

5 All growth rates are in real terms (i.e. inflation is excluded) in order to facilitate comparisons.

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8Austria

BelgiumBulgaria

Cyprus


Estonia

FinlandFrance

Germany

GreeceHungary

IcelandIreland

ItalyLatvia


Norway

PolandPortugalRomaniaSlovakiaSlovenia

SpainSweden

SwitzerlandTurkey

United Kingdom



France, Germany, Italy, Spain and the UK are Large and mature markets. Theyall had large 2006 expenditures, but are forecast to have low growth rates.

Bulgaria, Estonia, Iceland, Latvia, Lithuania and Romania are countries that have the highest forecast average growth rates but relatively lowexpenditures in 2006. These countries are classified as Tigers.

Notably, when considered in isolation, the modeling outputs indicate that there are no Stars with both high forecast growth rates and high actual expenditures.

The remaining countries are Small and mature markets. These have lowforecast growth and with low 2006 transport infrastructure investment.Experience suggests that as countries become more developed the growthin infrastructure investment tends to slow but the classification of some ofthese countries as mature may actually mean that they are yet to go througha major period of significant expansion in transport infrastructure. Greeceappears the most interesting in this group of countries – see Figure 4.

Figure 3:Transport 2006 actual expenditure and forecast

average annual growth rate 2008–2012

Figure 4: Small and mature markets; transport 2006 actual expenditure

and forecast average annual growth rate 2008–2012

AustriaBelgium

Bulgaria

CyprusCzech Republic

Denmark

Estonia

Finland

FranceGermany

GreeceHungary

Iceland

Ireland

Italy

LatviaLithuania

Luxembourg

NetherlandsNorwayPolandPortugal

RomaniaSlovakiaSlovenia

Spain

SwedenSwitzerlandTurkey

United Kingdom

5%0 10%

0

5,000

10,000

Small and mature

Large and mature Stars

Tigers

CyprusCzech RepublicPortugalSlovakia

AustriaBelgiumDenmarkNetherlands


3%

Finland

Greece

HungaryIrelandLuxembourgSlovenia

0 5%

0

3,000

5,000

Small and mature



€€m

illions€€

millions


Figure 5 shows the cumulative investment in transport infrastructure expected tooccur from 2008 to 2012. France, Germany, Italy, Spain and the UK are set to be thefive highest-spending countries by a margin. As illustrated in Figure 6, these fivecountries represent 67 percent of the total expenditure over the period.

0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 Austria

BelgiumBulgaria

Cyprus


Estonia

FinlandFrance

Germany

GreeceHungary

IcelandIreland

ItalyLatvia


Norway

PolandPortugalRomaniaSlovakiaSlovenia

SpainSweden

SwitzerlandTurkey

United Kingdom

50,000 45,000

Figure 5. Forecast cumulative expenditure on transport

infrastructure 2008–2012 (in €€ millions)

Figure 6. Forecast split in cumulative expenditure on transport

infrastructure 2008–2012



Rest of Europe

GermanySpain

France

Italy

United Kingdom

33%

15%12%

14%

12%

14%

In this section we combine KPMG member firms’ local insight withour econometric modeling with the aim of providing a fuller picture ofinvestment in European transport infrastructure. In doing so we areable to reveal who we believe the top performers will be.

A local touch


In introducing information on whatKPMG firms’ professionals see on theground we rely more on judgement andless on hard and measurable indicators.Ireland illustrates this point extremelywell. The country has had an expandingeconomy for the past decade but due toyears of underinvestment in toughereconomic times prior to that, itsinfrastructure had struggled to keeppace with the growing economy. Thishas gradually been turning around with astrong Government commitment toinfrastructure delivery. The NationalDevelopment Plan covering the periodfrom 2000 to 2006 included significantexpenditures on transport infrastructure.Ireland now has a National DevelopmentPlan from 2007 to 2013 in place. This plan includes expenditure ontransport that is in the tens of billions of euros. The program of transportexpenditure to 2016 has actually alreadybeen approved.

Our baseline forecast for Ireland is verydifferent from the above intelligence.This is because our model draws onhistoric long-term expenditure patternsin making predictions for the future. Thekey limitation of the model is indeedthat it is unable to anticipate the type ofchange in investment pattern that hasoccurred in Ireland. Our model,however, remains a useful foundationfrom which to have discussions. Itproduces information which facilitateslike-for-like comparisons acrosscountries. The second column in Table 1 opposite, for example, very

quickly provides a clear indication of therelative size of any two transportinfrastructure markets.

We have opted not to capture futureexpenditure plans for each country. This is because of the challenge ofmaking these numbers directlycomparable. They are expressed indifferent currencies at different timesand they often apply to different parts of the transport market. Some plansmay also be influenced by the politicalprocess and the commitment toimplementing them may vary. We haveinstead focused on assessing how thesituation in each country interplays withour baseline estimates and othercountries that are forecast to have similar prospects.

Table 1 captures what we believe arethe key considerations to make whendebating the state of play in differentmarkets in the light of our forecasts. Thesecond column in Table 1 contains theestimated spending (2008-2012) as aratio to the average spending for all 30countries. The average predictedexpenditure is €10,396 million. The thirdcolumn presents the same ratio forforecast growth. The average predictedgrowth is 3.27 percent per annum. The merit of the table is that it seeks to provide a quick assessment of therelative medium-term prospects in each market. The other columns are self-explanatory.

Global Infrastructure: Trend Monitor 11Table 1. KPMG's Key considerations for qualitative adjustment.

Germany 4.50 0.09 The budgeted 2008 transport investment (roads, rail and Nowaterways only) is an increase on the previous year. Medium-term growth is expected to be modest.

France 4.33 0.81 The focus of transport infrastructure investment will be on Noenhancing high speed rail, highway as well as canal networks.

United Kingdom 4.13 0.94 Transport investment is anticipated to increase in the run-up No to the London Olympics in 2012 with significant projectssuch as M25 and Thameslink in the pipeline.

Italy 3.68 0.62 A transport infrastructure investment budget for the period Nofrom 2008 to 2011 exists. It is in line with past investments. A set of priority projects have been identified, including a number of large road projects.

Spain 3.62 1.20 Ministry of Public Works and Transport has developed Yesa Strategic Plan for Infrastructures and Transport (PEIT) 2005-2020. The planned expenditures include a significant increase on past expenditures.

Netherlands 1.22 0.51 Strong political support for accelerating the transport No investment program exists. The investments are expected to focus primarily on roads, but rail is also anticipated to benefit.

Belgium 0.75 0.69 The focus will be on bringing other parts of the transport Nonetwork to a standard equal to the high-speed rail network.

Switzerland 0.73 0.37 Transport infrastructure investment will be dominated Noby the multibillion Euro New Railway Link through the Alps (NEAT) program.

Greece 0.63 1.36 The expenditure from transport infrastructure is No expected to shift towards other types of infrastructure in the post-Olympic era.

Sweden 0.62 0.81 The 2008 transport infrastructure budget is a reduction Noon the previous year’s. The Government is considering postponing some infrastructure investments due to inflationary pressures.

Austria 0.60 0.38 The Transport Master Plan envisages strategic investments Nointo transport infrastructure in the medium term. The Danube rail axis, including the Vienna-Bratislava route, is highlighted as being of particular importance.

Poland 0.60 0.82 The Ministry of Infrastructure (previously the Ministry of Transport) Yeshas four separate programs for roads (approved), railways, airports and ports looking forward for around five years. The anticipated incrase in expenditure is very significant.

Turkey 0.59 0.60 The emerging market is hungry for transport infrastructure No investments. Expenditure on rail projects and a programof road projects are expected in the medium term.

Ireland 0.58 1.39 An approved program of transport expenditure Yesup to 2016 worth tens of billions of Euros is in place.

Denmark 0.55 0.89 The 2008 transport infrastructure budgets for road No and rail both increase on the previous year’s. This trend in anticipated to continue in the medium term.

Norway 0.54 0.75 The transport investment is anticipated to increase. No Projects in the pipeline include light rail in Bergen, high-speed rail in the southern parts of the country and the Rogfast road tunnel.

Portugal 0.41 0.43 Significant increase in expenditure is anticipated. YesThe high-speed rail projects will be at a very advanced stage in 2012 and almost all of the road projects tendered at the moment will have been built.

Finland 0.39 0.94 The Government has shifted into committed No transport investment programs that cover a parliamentary cycle. The current expenditure plans to 2011 are an increase on past expenditures.

Romania 0.32 2.17 Transport infrastructure investment should grow Noin the 2008-12 period given the country’s needs and the availability of EU funds.

Country Ratio Ratio Future Prospects Qualitative (size) (growth) Adjustment

(yes/no)

Source: KPMG in the UK


What KPMG member firms see on theground suggests that our estimatesincluded as Appendix 1 are conservativefor most countries. In other words,actual expenditures are anticipated to behigher than we have predicted. Themost likely explanation for this is thatthe assumption that transportinfrastructure investment is equivalentto 4.24 percent of GFCF is notappropriate for all 30 countries.

This assumption is derived from the UKdata which is the most detailed availableand as such allows assumptions to be made.

A country has been moved to a newcategory (Figure 7) if it was felt to havebeen initially (Figure 3) in the wrongpeer group. Consequently, we movedIreland, Poland, Portugal and Slovakiainto the Tiger category.

We also reclassified Spain as a Starmarket.

It is important to note that we haveremoved the threshold values from theaxis in Figure 7 as our classifications areno longer quantitative but are based onqualitative judgement.

Figure 7: Adjusted classification of European transport infrastructure markets

AustriaBelgium

Bulgaria

CyprusCzech Republic

Denmark

Estonia

Finland

FranceGermany

GreeceHungary

IcelandIreland

Italy

Latvia

LithuaniaLuxembourgNetherlandsNorway

PolandPortugalRomaniaSlovakia

Slovenia

Spain


United Kingdom

0 %

0

Small and mature

Large and mature Stars

Tigers


Table 1.

Country Ratio Ratio Future Prospects Qualitative (size) (growth) Adjustment

(yes/no)

Czech Republic 0.30 0.59 The investment in transport infrastructure is anticipated Noto experience modest growth up to 2012.

Hungary 0.27 1.24 Over the next five years the motorway, secondary Nohighway and railway networks will continue to be developed.

Slovakia 0.12 0.67 Transport infrastructure investment is expected to grow Yesat a rate that is one of the fastest within the European Union.

Slovenia 0.10 1.21 A short-term reduction in transport expected following Nothe reorganization of government departments.

Luxembourg 0.08 1.09 The budget for transport infrastructure will be increasing No over the next few years with a heavy priority on adaptation and development of rail infrastructure.

Bulgaria 0.08 1.82 Investment leading up to 2013 is expected to increase with No around half of the expenditure anticipated to be on roads.

Lithuania 0.07 1.55 Investment in transport infrastructure is expected to increase No against a background of strong economic growth. An injection of EU cohesion funds is expected.

Latvia 0.06 1.92 The economic growth has been extraordinary of late. No It is anticipated that it will place significant strains on transport infrastructure within the next five years.

Estonia 0.05 1.68 The transport infrastructure market is expected to grow Nobut market capacity in terms of labor and construction materials may become an issue.

Iceland 0.05 1.55 The guiding principles for transport investment strategy Nountil 2018 are in place. The infrastructure investment over the next three years will be dominated by road projects.

Cyprus 0.03 0.86 The transport infrastructure activity is anticipated to increase No with significant activity across sectors, especially airports.


€€m

illions

The Global Infrastructure: Trend Monitor is intended to allowinfrastructure investment to be directly compared across geographies.This, our first edition, has looked into the medium-term future ofEuropean transport between 2008 to 2012.

Concluding thoughts

Taken alone, we believe our baseline forecasts present a step change in the qualityof information available. Yet the true value can be more readily realized whencombined with our member firms’ local insight. This provides the fuller picture ofanticipated transport infrastructure investment in Europe and reveals whichcountries we believe the true performers will be:

• Spain to emerge as a Star market

• The Tigers: Bulgaria, Estonia, Iceland, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Portugal, Slovakiaand Romania

• The five Large and mature markets of France, Germany, Italy, Spain, and the UKto make up 67 percent of all transport infrastructure investment from 2008-2012.

We hope you find this publication provides you with valuable insight into investmentin European transport infrastructure.

To discuss this report with the author, please do not hesitate to contact:

Dr Kai Rintala Head of Infrastructure Intelligence KPMG in the UK Tel +44 (0) 207 694 1893 e-Mail [email protected]



Behind the scenes: What we did and why


This first edition of KPMG’s GlobalInfrastructure: Trend Monitor exploresthe relative sizes of the Europeantransport infrastructure markets based on comparable data and ourmember firms’ intelligence on each of the countries.

Such data was not available when westarted. We used an econometricmodel to approximate past transportinfrastructure investments (1995-2006)and to build predictive scenarios offuture expenditures (2007-2012). Ourmodel allowed us to generate baselineforecasts for each country that aregrounded in hard evidence andinfluenced by as little judgement as possible. We have been explicitabout judgements where we havemade them.

Our model uses Gross Fixed CapitalFormation (GFCF) data from Eurostat6

as the base information. We believedthat, for our purposes, this data wasthe most consistent and comparableacross the markets. Harmonizing andusing other types of data would havecalled for a considerably larger numberof judgements to be made. Declaredfuture expenditure plans, for example,are announced at different times and indifferent currencies while potentiallyinfluenced by an election cycle.

Future infrastructure investments areoften forecast using Gross DomesticProduct (GDP) as a reference point.Annual changes in GFCF tend not to be the same as those in GDP.Infrastructure investment often tracksGFCF more closely. It is for this reasonthat we have chosen to use GFCF as abasis for our estimate.

We have assumed that transportinfrastructure investment can beapproximated at 4.24 percent of GFCF.Figure 8 shows the underlyingcomponents of the assumption.

Reading Figure 8 from left to right,GFCF breaks down into plant andequipment as well as new-buildconstruction. All new-build constructionfalls either under housing, infrastructureor commercial building. UK NationalAccounts indicate that from 1998 to2005 total infrastructure output (bothtransport and other infrastructure) in theUK was equivalent to 4.08 percent of GFCF.

GFCF, however, only includes newbuild. It does not include repair andmaintenance. Reading Figure 8 fromright to left, construction output breaksdown into new-build construction aswell as repair and maintenance. Someof this is repair and maintenance ofexisting infrastructure while theremainder is that of housing andcommercial buildings. Using the UK Construction Statistics Annual weknow that repair and maintenance is 46 percent of all construction output.

Transport infrastructure is not the onlyform of infrastructure – see the centreof Figure 8. Again, the UK ConstructionStatistics Annual tells us that in the UK,roads, rail, airports and ports represent56 percent of all infrastructure output.7

This percentage has been relativelystable over the long term.

We believe that UK National Accountsand the UK Construction StatisticsAnnual provide the most transparentand detailed information on the breakdown of transport infrastructureexpenditure. We have consequentlybuilt the assumption that transportinfrastructure can be estimated at 4.24percent of GFCF. The assumption isbased on the following:

• New-build infrastructure is 4.08percent of GFCF,

• All infrastructure (including repair andmaintenance) is 1.858 times new-build infrastructure, and

• Transport infrastructure is 56 percentof all infrastructure.

These assumptions were applied toeach European country to produceinfrastructure investment data for years1995 to 2006. The forecasts for 2007 to2012 were produced based on straight-line regression of each market from1995 to 2006. The data produced byour model is included in Appendix 1.

6 Eurostat, (2007), Table NAMA P16 K, Gross Fixed Capital Investment by 6 asset types – aggregates at constant 1995prices and exchange rates in millions of Euros, Brussels, European Commission

7 DBERR, (2007) Table 2.8, Contractors’ output by type of work, Construction Statistics Annual, TSO, Norwich 8 1.85 is the inverse of 54 percent.

Figure 8. Method for approximating transport infrastructure investment

based on Gross Fixed Capital Formation.

Gross fixedcapital formation

Constructionoutput

Commercial

Housing

Plant and equipment

New buildconstruction

Repair andmaintenance

New buildconstructionInfrastructure

Tran

spor

t

Othe

r



Note: The figures for years 1996 to 2006 are actual expenditures. We assumed that transport infrastructure investment can be approximated by taking 4.24 percentof Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) in each of the 30 countries. The figures for years 2007 to 2012 are baseline forecast that build on hard evidence of thepast. We produced the estimates by taking a straight-line regression of each of the markets from 1995 to 2006. The only exception is Romania for which data from1995 to 1998 was unavailable. All figures are in 2005 prices to facilitate like-for-like comparisons.

Austria

Belgium

Bulgaria

Cyprus

Czech Republic

Denmark

Estonia

Finland

France

Germany

Greece

Hungary

Iceland

Ireland

Italy

Latvia

Lithuania

Luxembourg

Netherlands

Norway

Poland

Portugal

Romania

Slovakia

Slovenia

Spain

Sweden

Switzerland

Turkey

United Kingdom

Appendix 1. Historical and forecast future transport infrastructure investment in 30 European countries (in €€ millions)

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

988 1013 1027 1063 1088 1159 1141 1072 1136

1025 1040 1114 1153 1201 1255 1258 1229 1226

48 38 30 41 49 57 70 76 86

41 44 42 45 45 46 48 52 52

458 504 475 471 456 479 510 536 539

628 665 734 793 793 853 841 842 840

28 31 37 42 35 42 46 57 68

412 438 498 553 568 602 628 609 633

5581 5621 5645 6048 6548 7019 7186 7065 7224

8706 8661 8748 9095 9527 9813 9455 8881 8855

479 519 554 613 681 735 783 828 941

228 244 266 301 319 345 362 399 408

27 34 37 50 48 54 51 44 49

369 433 511 588 675 727 726 751 794

5308 5405 5492 5726 5930 6307 6465 6722 6610

17 21 25 41 38 42 47 53 59

37 45 57 69 65 59 67 74 84

78 82 91 96 118 112 122 129 132

1681 1825 1980 2115 2298 2311 2315 2210 2176

646 711 824 936 885 854 845 835 837

583 698 851 970 1035 1063 960 899 899

569 601 687 768 815 843 852 822 761

246 259 286 309 336

138 180 205 224 189 171 193 194 189

83 91 104 113 134 136 138 140 150

3349 3436 3609 4017 4437 4731 4958 5126 5426

788 824 821 885 957 1012 1001 975 985

1247 1226 1252 1331 1351 1408 1359 1353 1336

856 977 1122 1078 909 1062 727 719 791

4527 4773 5098 5796 5967 6130 6288 6517 6588


2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

1137 1141 1184 1195 1211 1226 1241 1257 1272

1314 1402 1461 1448 1483 1518 1552 1587 1621

98 121 142 130 139 148 157 166 175

57 59 62 61 63 65 67 69 71

560 572 604 591 603 615 627 639 651

887 972 1098 1042 1075 1108 1140 1173 1206

71 78 96 90 95 101 107 112 118

656 681 708 744 768 793 818 843 868

7483 7785 8075 8305 8540 8776 9012 9247 9483

8839 8931 9476 9265 9293 9321 9349 9377 9405

994 981 1104 1137 1194 1251 1307 1364 1421

439 462 453 498 521 543 566 588 611

63 84 101 86 91 96 101 106 111

853 961 999 1047 1101 1155 1208 1262 1315

6719 6687 6843 7184 7337 7491 7645 7799 7952

74 91 108 99 107 114 121 129 136

97 108 127 118 125 132 139 145 152

134 137 141 153 159 165 171 177 183

2141 2205 2363 2410 2452 2495 2537 2579 2622

922 1025 1100 1047 1074 1102 1129 1157 1184

956 1018 1185 1139 1172 1205 1238 1270 1303

763 737 725 824 836 849 861 873 885

373 420 487 533 578 624 669 715 760

199 234 251 232 238 243 248 254 259

161 165 179 185 194 202 210 218 226

5700 6093 6508 6661 6949 7238 7527 7816 8105

1049 1133 1223 1191 1225 1259 1293 1327 1361

1397 1449 1455 1468 1486 1505 1523 1542 1560

1047 1299 1480 1162 1187 1211 1235 1259 1283

6974 7080 7660 7801 8061 8320 8579 8838 9097


KPMG’s Global Infrastructure professionals provide objectiveadvisory support to our member firms’ clients throughout the lifecycle of complex infrastructure projects.

KPMG’s Global Infrastructure practice

Our member firms’ teams have extensive local and global experience, advisinggovernment organizations, contractors, operators, and investors in the followingareas:

• Planning, structuring and management of new infrastructure investments

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• Restructuring of distressed projects

• Investment due diligence assistance

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For additional information regarding our firms services and capabilities, please seecontacts on the back cover.

Global Infrastructure:Trend Monitor 19

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Publication name: Infrastructure trend monitor

Publication number: 312548

Publication date: June 2008

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Documents

Global Infrastructure Trend Monitor - European Transport Outlook 2008-2012