Global Market Forecast 2011 - 2030 - Team.Aero · Evolution of average seat capacity of single-aisle and twin-aisle aircraft on order and future fleet in service* Twin-aisle aircraft:

© AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document. Page 1

Global Market Forecast 2011 - 2030


Delivering the Future

September 2011

Presented by

John Leahy

© AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.

GMF 2011 Highlights

Page 3

World fleet forecast 2010 2030 % change

Market value of $3.5 trillion

RPK (trillion) 4.8 12.3 157%

Passenger aircraft fleet 15,000 31,420 109%

New passenger aircraft deliveries - 26,920 -

Dedicated freighters 1,600 3,450 +116%

New freighter aircraft deliveries - 930 -

Total new aircraft deliveries 27,850

GMF 2011 key numbers and 20-year change


20-year demand for almost 27,900 new passenger and freight aircraft

20-year new deliveries of passenger and freight aircraft

Jet freight aircraft (>10 tons)

1,780 very large aircraft


6,910 twin-aisle aircraft

19,170 single-aisle aircraft

Page 4

Passenger aircraft (≥ 100 seats)


-10%

-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

Actual until Sep. 2009

-10%

-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%


Sep. 2009 forecast

-10%

-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%



-10%

-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%


Sep. 2011 forecast

World economic forecast accuracy

World real GDP year-over-year quarterly evolution (%)

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Strong growth since 2004

Slowdown Deep crisis Recovery Sustained growth

Source: IHS Global Insight, Airbus

2012

Page 5


-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

Real & forecast GDP

Traffic ASKs

Source: IHS Global Insight (August 2011 data), OAG (ASKs data), Airbus

GDP and passenger traffic development

2007

August 11 Passenger traffic up

6.2%

World real GDP and passenger traffic (year-over-year)

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Page 6


-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014

Source: IHS Global Insight (August 2011), Airbus

A two-speed world

History Forecast

Real GDP growth (%)

Emerging economies*

Mature economies

* 54 emerging economies

Page 7

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014


Source: OAG, Airbus

All regions are showing positive growth

-12%

-8%

-4%

0%

4%

8%

12%

16%

J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N

United States

Western Europe

Emerging Economies

2007

Traffic

up

2.1% 5.2%

Traffic

up

10.2%

Passenger traffic (monthly ASKs year-over-year)

2008 2009 2010 2011

Emerging economies are leading the way

Page 8


Delivery comparison over the last decade

Largest aircraft manufacturer 8 out of last 10 years

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Airbus Boeing

Annual deliveries

Page 9


Airbus order backlog

4,233 aircraft in backlog, worth $570 billion

North America

479 (11%)

Latin

America

254 (6%)

Middle East

418 (10%) Asia/ Pacific

1572 (37%) Lessors

819 (19%)

Corporate Jet,

Private, Military

45 (1%)

Africa

83 (2%)

Europe

360 (9%)

Undisclosed 27 (1%)

Page 10

CIS

176 (4%)


90

100

110

120

130

140

150

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

Since 2000, air travel has grown 45%, the growth in fuel demand relatively flat….

Evolution of RPKs and jet fuel demand (Base 100 in 2000)

Traffic growth

Jet fuel demand

Traffic

+45%

Fuel

+3%

Jet fuel demand data: CERA (millions of barrels of jet fuel)

Source: ICAO, CERA, Airbus

Page 11


Average annual oil prices have rebounded to 2008 values

Source: EIA, IHS Global Insight (August 2011), Airbus

Page 12

Average annual WTI oil price (US$ per bbl)

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

History Forecast

Oil price (Current US$)

Average Annual Price

Per Barrel

>$120


A320neo generates significant fuel burn savings

A320neo – “new environmental option”

15% fuel burn saving

Equivalent to 1,000 cars driving 12,000 miles each

3,600t less CO2 emissions

Equivalent to CO2 absorbed by 240,000 mature trees in a year

Page 13


Air travel has proved to be resilient to external shocks

Source: ICAO, Airbus * since 2000

Gulf Crisis Oil Crisis

World annual traffic (RPKs - trillions) Asian Crisis

WTC Attack Oil Crisis SARS

Financial Crisis

+45%

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Page 14


Main drivers for future growth

• Replacement of aircraft in service in mature markets

• Dynamic growth in emerging markets – population and economics

• Increasing urbanisation driving wealth and traffic growth

• Strong continued growth in North American and European markets

• Expanding global middle class, especially in Asia

• Continued growth of LCCs

• Market liberalisation – more to come

Page 15


0.001

0.01

0.1

1

10

0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 45,000 50,000 55,000

Trips* per capita - 2010

2010 real GDP per capita

World average

Emerging economies drive strong travel growth

China

India

Brazil

Russia

* Passengers originating from respective country Note: GDP in US$2005

USA

France Germany

UK China 2030

India 2030

Page 16

India: 4x 2030 vs. 2010

China: 3x 2030 vs. 2010

Growth in

Propensity to

Travel


0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

1970 1990 2010 2030

Traffic in and between more mature markets will nearly double between 2010 and 2030

Traffic within or including emerging economies

Traffic within & between developed economies

76% 63% 43%

30% 24%

37%

70%

Market share on total traffic, emerging vs. mature traffic flows

RPK (trillion)

Page 17

57%


0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000

Asia-Pacific

Europe

North America

Middle East

Latin America

CIS

Africa

Asia-Pacific to lead in world traffic by 2030

2010 traffic 2010-2030 traffic 28%

27%

27%

7%

5%

3%

3%

20-year world annual traffic growth

4.8%

5.7%

4.0%

3.3%

7.4%

6.1%

4.9%

5.6%

World Traffic by airline domicile (RPK billions) % of 2010

world RPK

20-year

growth

Page 18

33%

23%

20%

11%

6%

4%

3%

% of 2030

world RPK


Long-haul traffic will grow faster than short-haul

Evolution of long-haul and short-haul traffic, 2010 set to 100% [passengers]

* Long haul traffic: flight distance >2,000nm, excl. domestic traffic

Page 19

0%

100%

200%

300%

Short-haul traffic Long-haul traffic

2010 2010

2030 2030

x 2.4

x 2.8


2010 cities with more than 10,000 daily long-haul passengers*

39 cities in the world handle more than 10,000 long haul passengers per day, …

Page 20


Source: IATA PaxIS, OAG. Airbus


2030 cities with more than 10,000 daily long-haul passengers*

… and in 20 years, this will become nearly 90 cities

Page 21


Source: IATA PaxIS, OAG. Airbus


Four years of success – four years of full flights 25th October 2011 marks the fourth anniversary of the first commercial flight

“The Singapore Airlines A380 has proven exceptionally popular

with customers, with strong loads on all routes it serves.

System-wide, more than 5 million customers have flown on

Singapore Airlines' A380s [...] on more than 13,000 flights”.

SIA News Release

1st July 2011

= 81%

Average Load Factor

76.5%

IATA Industry average l.f.*

77.9%

SIA average l.f.*

* - Source: IATA Carrier Tracker November 2007 to June 2011

Page 22


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

Air travel remains a growth market

Source: ICAO, Airbus

World annual traffic (RPKs - trillions)

20-year world annual traffic growth

4.8%

Page 23

ICAO

total traffic

Airbus

GMF 2011

Air traffic has doubled

every 15 years

Air traffic will double in the next 15 years


New aircraft demand will average at ~1,400 per year

0

4,000

8,000

12,000

16,000

20,000

24,000

Single-aisle & Small jet freighters

Small-twin aisle & Regional freighters

Intermediate twin-aisle & Long range freighters

Large aircraft & Large freighters

GMF 2010

GMF 2011

69% 17% 8% 6% % units

40% 27% 16% 17% % value

17,870

4,330

1,910 1,740

20-year new deliveries of passenger and freighter aircraft

4,790

2,120 1,780

19,170

Page 24

Passenger aircraft (≥ 100 seats) and jet freight aircraft (>10 tons)

0

4,000

8,000

12,000

16,000

20,000

24,000

Single-aisle & Small jet freighters

Small-twin aisle & Regional freighters

Intermediate twin-aisle & Long range freighters

Large aircraft & Large freighters

GMF 2010

GMF 2011


Pending demand for aircraft replacement in North America

Asia

Europe

North America

Latin America

Africa

Middle East

World Modern

Out of

Production

79%

70%

75%

72%

56%

67%

59%

2010 Fleet

Today,

~ 4500 out of

production

aircraft to be

replaced by

more eco-

efficient model

Page 25


Strong increase in average seat capacity of aircraft

-4%

0%

4%

8%

12%

16%

20%

2000 2010 2026**

Evolution of average seat capacity of single-aisle and twin-aisle aircraft on order and future fleet in service*

Twin-aisle aircraft:

+8%

Single-aisle aircraft:

+10%

2010 vs. 2000

Backlog

* Passenger aircraft ≥ 100 seats

** Estimated 2026 backlog (2026 – 2030 new aircraft deliveries)

Twin-aisle aircraft:

+17%

Single-aisle aircraft:

+15%

2026 vs. 2000

Backlog

Source: CASE, fleet in service as of end of year

Page 26


20-year demand for almost 27,900 new passenger and freight aircraft

20-year new deliveries of passenger and freight aircraft

Jet freight aircraft (>10 tons)

1,780 very large aircraft


6,910 twin-aisle aircraft

19,170 single-aisle aircraft

Page 27

Passenger aircraft (≥ 100 seats)


A320neo market potential

Open demand for 14,800 aircraft by 2030

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Single-aisle aircraft in-service

Currently in-service

Backlog

Open Demand

14,800

aircraft

4,400

aircraft

Page 28


Summary

• A market for more than 26,900 new passenger aircraft and over 900 new

freighter aircraft

• The A320neo Family will be addressing a market of about 19,000 single-aisle

passenger aircraft, out of which 15,000 still to be sold.

• The twin-aisle passenger aircraft market will account for more than 6,900

new aircraft deliveries.

• Nearly 1,800 very large aircraft to meet demand and alleviate congestion,

whilst offering lower cost per seat.

• Strong A380 demand driven by the growth from 39 aviation mega-cities to 87

in 20 years.

Page 29


Presented by

Chris Emerson

Delivering the Future

September 2011


The Airbus Global Market Forecast (GMF)

Page 31

161 regional passenger flows

Several models developed for each flow with the best model selected

Econometric forecasts complemented by market research and judgement

Detailed study of network evolution including new routes, markets and

deregulation hot spots

Model the impact of evolving airline models

Fleet build-ups covering 869 passenger airlines

Market research

•Deregulation / liberalisation

•Competition

•Low cost penetration

•Consumer / travel surveys

Market segmentation

•Regional / low cost / charter

•Start-up / Network

• Integrators

•Traffic flows

•Domestic / International

Traffic Forecast

•Economics & Econometrics

•Tourism

•Fuel price

•Yields

•Trade / Value of goods

Network development

•Aircraft economics

•Airline operation economics

•Origin-destination demand

•Demographics

•Geopolitics

•Network evolution

o The Global Market Forecast (GMF) is a 20 year aircraft

demand and passenger traffic forecast


Traffic is broken down from macro flows down to city pairs and routings

GLOBAL FORECAST LOCAL ESTIMATES

Europe

Asia

~161 distinct flows

France

Singapore

~10,000 country pairs

SIN

TLSToulouse

Singapore

~200,000 Origin-Destination city pairs

Page 32

A unique process to match the global vision with the local perspective.


Five key industry drivers examined

• Economic and Population Growth

• Trade

• Emerging Markets

• Aging Populations

• Ticket Price

• Comfort

• Origin and Destination

• Connectivity

• Growing Traffic Flows

• Global Cities

• Hubs

• New Routes

• Deregulation

• Route Evolution

• Fuel

• Range

• Fleet Mix/ Capacity

• Business Models

• Yields

• Environment

• Seats, Speed and Utilization

• Frequency and

• Range and Fleet Mix

• Replacement

• Environment

Economics

and

Demographics

Passengers

and Traffic Networking

Airline

Operations

Aircraft and

Aircraft

Demand

Page 33

• Growing

Middle Class

• Urbanization

• Growing Traffic

Flows

• Origin and

Destination

• Route Evolution

• New Routes

• Load Factor

• Frequency • Fleet Mix/

Capacity

• Yields


Gulf Crisis Oil Crisis Asian Crisis

WTC Attack Oil Crisis

The Global Market Forecast is a long-term forecast which accounts for potential crises

SARS

GMF 1999

Δ<0.1%

Page 34

World annual traffic (RPKs - trillions)

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010


2009 projections have mapped closely with reality

Source: IHS Global Insight, Airbus

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Strong growth since 2004

Slowdown Deep crisis Recovery Sustained growth

2012

World real GDP year-over-year quarterly evolution (%)

-10%

-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

Sep. 2011 forecast


Sep. 2009 forecast

Actual until Sep. 2009 -10%

-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

Sep. 2011 forecast


Sep. 2009 forecast


-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

Sep. 2011 forecast


Sep. 2009 forecast


-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

Sep. 2011 forecast


Sep. 2009 forecast


-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

Sep. 2011 forecast


Sep. 2009 forecast


The depth of this crisis has resulted in a slow but continual recovery

Page 35


Economic crisis and the beginning of recovery

-12%

-10%

-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Increase in savings for households and businesses while budget surplus has declined heavily

Page 36

-12%

-10%

-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Households Business Government

United States net savings (% of GDP)

-12%

-10%

-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Source: BEA, Airbus

The increase in business and household savings demonstrate the foundations for recovery


Passenger load factor at record level

Source: ICAO, IATA (2010 estimation), Airbus

Page 37

50%

55%

60%

65%

70%

75%

80%

1967

1969

1971

1973

1975

1977

1979

1981

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

2007

2009 50%

55%

60%

65%

70%

75%

80%

1967

1969

1971

1973

1975

1977

1979

1981

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

2007

2009

World passenger aircraft load factor (%)

Environmental efficiency through airline productivity


Source: OAG, Ascend, Airbus

The industry is again entering into a period of under capacity

Number of aircraft in under/excess capacity

Under capacity (compared with pre-Sep

2001 (2008) maximum

productivity level)

Excess capacity (compared with pre-Sep

2001 (2008) maximum

productivity level)

2001 2005 2004 2003 2002

2008 2012 2011 2010 2009

-1500

-1000

-500

0

500

1000

1500

S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N -1500

-1000

-500

0

500

1000

1500

S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N -1500

-1000

-500

0

500

1000

1500

S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N

?

Page 38


Stabilization of yields over the last ten years

Page 39

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

Sources:

North America: ATA

Asia Pacific: AAPA for data until 2009 / For 2010, Q1 2010, Q2 2010: annual & interim reports (weighted average yield by RPK of the 10 major airlines)

Europe: AEA for data until 2009 / For 2010, Q1 2010, Q2 2010: annual & interim reports (weighted average yield by RPK of the 4 major airlines)

US Cents/RPK

Europe

Asia/Pacific

North America

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14


Source: ICAO/IATA (June 2011), Airbus

Airlines expected to remain profitable in 2011

5.5%

-1.8%

1.2%

4.7%

2.9%

4.0%

0.1%

-2.2%

2.0% 1.1%

2.9%

-4.7%

-1.8%

10.9%

2.3%

North America

Europe

Asia-Pacific

Airline industry EBIT margins (% of revenues)

Page 40

Fuel prices will continue to have an effect on the future profitability of airlines

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011


“Global middle class” expected to rise to 4.9 billion people by 2030

Source: Kharas and Gertz, Airbus

* Households with daily expenditures between $10 and $100 per person (at PPP)

Page 41

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

2010 2020 2030

Sub Sahara Africa

Middle East & North Africa

Latin America

North America

Asia-Pacific

Europe

Millions of people

1,845

3,249

4,884

664 703 680

525

1,740

3,228

338

333

322

181

251

313

105

165

234 107

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

2010 2020 2030

Sub Sahara Africa


Latin America

North America

Asia-Pacific

Europe 664 703 680

525

1,740

3,228

338

333

322

181

251

313

105

165

234

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

2010 2020 2030

Sub Sahara Africa


Latin America

North America

Asia-Pacific

Europe 664 703 680

525

1,740

3,228

338

333

322

181

251

313

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

2010 2020 2030

Sub Sahara Africa


Latin America

North America

Asia-Pacific

Europe 664 703 680

525

1,740

3,228

338

333

322

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

2010 2020 2030

Sub Sahara Africa


Latin America

North America

Asia-Pacific

Europe 664 703 680

525

1,740

3,228

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

2010 2020 2030

Sub Sahara Africa


Latin America

North America

Asia-Pacific

Europe 664 703 680

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

2010 2020 2030

Sub Sahara Africa


Latin America

North America

Asia-Pacific

Europe

66% of the global middle class will be in Asia-Pacific in 2030


Page 42

Urbanisation is one of the main drivers of economic growth

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

2010 real GDP per capita ($US)

% Urban population

Switzerland

Luxembourg

Norway

Ireland

Trinidad and

Tobago

Aruba

Anguilla

Argentina

Brazil Russia India

China

USA

UK

France

Germany

Japan

Source: Global Insight, UN Population division

Bermuda


Long-haul traffic will grow twice as fast as the network

Traffic

x 2.8

Network

x 1.4

Evolution of long-haul traffic and route network, 2010 set to 100% [passengers and number of city-pairs]

* Long haul traffic: flight distance >2,000nm

Traffic will more than double – airport infrastructure will not: routes will get bigger

Page 43

0%

100%

200%

300%

2010 2030


Long-haul traffic will remain highly concentrated on the Aviation Megacities

0

100

200

300

400

500

1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030

History Forecast

Aviation Megacity

<>

Aviation Megacity

Aviation Megacity

<>

Secondary city

Secondary city

<>

Secondary city

RPK (billion)

Long-haul traffic per route category*

Page 44

*- Long haul traffic: flight distance >2,000nm

Based on 2010’s 39 Aviation Megacities

0

100

200

300

400

500

1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030

0

100

200

300

400

500

1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030

0

100

200

300

400

500

1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030


Aviation megacities across the globe will drive future VLA demand

Page 45

2 PEK

4 LHR

9 PVG

11 NRT

3 HKG

14 FRA 5

JFK

7 SIN

6 CDG

1 DXB 10

LAX

8 DEL

12 BKK

16 SYD

19 SFO

20 ICN

13 BOM

18 GRU

15 SHA

17 CAN

2030 top 20 airports in number of VLAs

2030: 87 Aviation megacities


0 500 1000 1500

Domestic United States

Domestic PRC

Intra Western Europe

United States - Western Europe

Domestic India

Middle East - Western Europe

Asia - Western Europe

South America - Western Europe

Asia - PRC

Intra Asia

PRC - Western Europe

Central Europe - Western Europe

Indian Sub - Middle East

Domestic Brazil

Domestic Asia

North Africa - Western Europe

Middle East - United States

Asia - Middle East

PRC - United States

Japan - United States

Domestic US still the largest flow in 2030, followed by domestic China and Intra Western Europe

20-year

growth

2.4%

7.2%

3.2%

3.9%

9.8%

5.7%

4.3%

5.1%

6.8%

6.4%

6.2%

5.7%

6.2%

6.6%

5.6%

4.6%

7.1%

5.5%

6.6%

3.8%

% of 2010

World RPK

17.8%

6.0%

10.3%

6.4%

1.0%

1.9%

2.4%

2.1%

1.5%

1.6%

1.5%

1.6%

1.4%

1.3%

1.5%

1.5%

0.9%

1.2%

1.0%

1.7%

0 500 1000 1500

Domestic United States

Domestic PRC


United States - Western Europe

Domestic India

Middle East - Western Europe

Asia - Western Europe

South America - Western Europe

Asia - PRC

Intra Asia

PRC - Western Europe

Central Europe - Western Europe

Indian Sub - Middle East

Domestic Brazil

Domestic Asia

North Africa - Western Europe

Middle East - United States

Asia - Middle East

PRC - United States

Japan - United States

2010 traffic 2011-2030 growth

RPKs (billions)

Page 46

% of 2030

World RPK

11.1%

9.3%

7.5%

5.4%

2.6%

2.3%

2.2%

2.2%

2.2%

2.1%

2.0%

1.9%

1.9%

1.8%

1.7%

1.4%

1.4%

1.4%

1.4%

1.4%

Though domestic PRC will be 34% larger than domestic USA today


Stay in service

Recycled

Replaced

Growth

20-year passenger aircraft demand for 26,900 aircraft worth US$ 3.3 trillion

Page 47

Fleet size

1,063

3,440

10,499

16,422

31,424

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

Beginning 2011 2030

15,002

New aircraft 26,921

Passenger aircraft 100 seats (excluding freighters)

Airbus Market Research & Forecasts

+ 3.8 % per annum


Recap and Conclusions

Page 48

4.8% Traffic

Growth 2010-2030

0 2000

Intra Asia

Asia - PRC

S. America - W. Europe

Asia - W. Europe

M. East - W. Europe

Domestic India

USA - W. Europe


Domestic PRC

Domestic USA

Ten Largest Flows in 2030

Single-Aisle

Small Twin-Aisle

Intermediate Twin-Aisle

VLA

=500 Aircraft

Passenger and Freight Aircraft Demand

VLA

Intermediate Twin-Aisle

Single-Aisle

Small Twin-Aisle

40%

27%

16%

17%

by Value

Documents

Global Market Forecast 2011 - 2030 - Team.Aero · Evolution of average seat capacity of single-aisle and twin-aisle aircraft on order and future fleet in service* Twin-aisle aircraft: