•

•

•

•

•

•

•

•

•

Global Monthly December 2020

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

99

100

101

102

103

104

10509-N

ov

16-N

ov

23-N

ov

30-N

ov

07-D

ec

14-D

ec

Vaccine probabilityEquity prices

Index, 100=November 9 Percent

http://www.worldbank.org/en/research/brief/economic-monitoringhttps://www.worldbank.org/en/research/brief/newsletter-archive

2

December 2020

0

4

8

12

16

20

Vaccines are effective Vaccines are safe

Disagree Unsure

Share of respondents

0

10

20

30

40

0-9

10-1

9

20-2

9

30-3

9

40-4

9

50-5

9

60-6

9

70-7

9

80-8

9

90-1

00

Decline in international tourist arrivals (percent)

Share of countries

-5

0

5

10

15

Ju

l-2

0

Aug-2

0

Sep-2

0

Oct-

20

No

v-2

0

De

c-2

0

Current situation

ExpectationsChange in index points

3

December 2020

-150

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

Jan-2

0

Feb-2

0

Mar-

20

Apr-

20

May-2

0

Jun-2

0

Jul-20

Aug-2

0

Sep-2

0

Oct-

20

Nov-2

0

Debt EquityUSD billion

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Ja

n-2

0

Feb-2

0

Mar-

20

Apr-

20

May-2

0

Jun-2

0

Jul-20

Au

g-2

0

Sep-2

0

Oct-

20

Nov-2

0

Dec-2

0

Brent Crude Oil

Copper

$/bbl $/mt

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

4

6

8

10

12

Ja

n-2

0

Feb-2

0

Mar-

20

Ap

r-2

0

May-2

0

Jun-2

0

Ju

l-20

Aug-2

0

Sep-2

0

Oct-

20

No

v-2

0

Dec-2

0

Speculative gradecorporate yield

10-year US treasuryyield (RHS)

Percent Percent

4

December 2020

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Nov-1

9

Dec-1

9

Jan-2

0

Feb-2

0

Mar-

20

Apr-

20

May-2

0

Jun-2

0

Jul-20

Aug-2

0

Sep-2

0

Oct-

20

Nov-2

0

Dec-2

0

France Germany

Italy Spain

Euro area

Index, 50+=expansion

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

Mar-

20

Ap

r-20

May-2

0

Ju

n-2

0

Ju

l-2

0

Au

g-2

0

Sep-2

0

Oct-

20

No

v-2

0

De

c-2

0

New daily cases

Retail and recreation (RHS)

New daily cases Percent change from baseline

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

Feb-2

0

Mar-

20

Apr-

20

May-2

0

Jun-2

0

Jul-20

Aug-2

0

Sep-2

0

Oct-

20

Nov-2

0

Dec-2

0

Retail mobility News sentimentPercent

5

December 2020

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

No

v-1

9

Dec-1

9

Jan-2

0

Feb-2

0

Mar-

20

Apr-

20

May-2

0

Ju

n-2

0

Ju

l-20

Aug-2

0

Sep-2

0

Oct-

20

Nov-2

0

AverageIndex, 50+=expansion

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Private consumptionPublic consumptionFixed investmentNet exportsGDP growth (y/y)

Percent

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

Nov-1

6

May-1

7

No

v-1

7

May-1

8

Nov-1

8

May-1

9

Nov-1

9

Exports ImportsPercent, year-on-year

6

December 2020

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

0

10

20

30

40

50

EAP ECA LAC MNA SAR SSA

Informal output

Informal employment (RHS)

Percent of GDP Percent of employment

0

10

20

30

40

50

Catastrophicexpenditure forsurgical care

Improverishingexpenditure forsurgical care

High informality Low informality

Percent of people at risk

******

0

20

40

60

80

0

20

40

60

1990 2016 1990 2016 1990 2016 1990 2016

AEs EMDEs AEs EMDEs

Informal output Informal employment(RHS)

AEs EMDEs World mean

Percent of GDP Percent of employment

7

December 2020

0

20

40

60

80

100

Sanitation Drinkingwater

Handwashingfacilities

High informality Low informality

Percent of population

*** ***

***

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

High Low High Low

Governmentrevenues

Governmentexpenditures

Percent of GDP

***

***

0

1

2

3

4

Physicians Nurses and midwives

High informality Low informality

Per 1,000 people

***

***

8

December 2020

(Percent change, y/y)

(Percent change y/y)

Recent releases: November 16, 2020 - December 15, 2020 Upcoming releases: December 16, 2020 - January 15, 2021

Country Date Indicator Period Actual Previous Country Date Indicator Period Previous

Nigeria 11/22/20 GDP Q3 -3.1% -6.0% Canada 12/16/20 CPI NOV 0.7%

Germany 11/24/20 GDP Q3 -4.0% -11.2% New Zealand 12/16/20 GDP Q3 -10.1%

United States 11/25/20 GDP Q3 -2.9% -9.0% United Kingdom 12/16/20 CPI NOV 0.9%

Mexico 11/26/20 GDP Q3 -8.6% -18.7% Euro area 12/17/20 CPI OCT -0.3%

France 11/27/20 GDP Q3 -3.9% -18.9% Japan 12/17/20 CPI OCT -0.4%

India 11/27/20 GDP Q3 -7.5% -23.9% United Kingdom 12/22/20 GDP Q3 -9.6%

Indonesia 11/30/20 CPI NOV 1.6% 1.4% United States 12/22/20 GDP Q3 -9.0%

Poland 11/30/20 GDP Q3 -1.8% -8.0% Spain 12/23/20 GDP Q3 -8.7%

South Korea 11/30/20 GDP Q3 -1.1% -2.7% Netherlands 12/24/20 GDP Q3 -2.5%

Turkey 11/30/20 GDP Q3 6.7% -9.9% Japan 12/27/20 IP NOV -3.2%

Australia 12/1/20 GDP Q3 -3.8% -6.4% South Korea 12/30/20 CPI DEC 0.6%

Canada 12/1/20 GDP Q3 -5.2% -12.5% Spain 12/30/20 CPI DEC -0.8%

Italy 12/1/20 GDP Q3 -5.0% -18.0% Germany 1/6/21 CPI DEC -0.3%

Brazil 12/3/20 GDP Q3 -3.9% -10.9% Italy 1/7/21 CPI DEC -0.2%

China 12/8/20 CPI NOV -0.5% 0.5% Mexico 1/7/21 CPI DEC 3.3%

Euro area 12/8/20 GDP Q3 -4.3% -14.7% India 1/12/21 IP NOV 3.6%

Japan 12/8/20 GDP Q3 -5.7% -10.3% United States 1/13/21 CPI DEC 1.2%

Netherlands 12/8/20 CPI NOV 0.8% 1.2% China 1/14/21 GDP Q4 4.9%

South Africa 12/8/20 GDP Q3 -6.0% -17.5% Euro area 1/14/21 IP NOV -3.6%

Argentina 12/9/20 IP OCT -2.9% 3.7% France 1/15/21 CPI DEC 0.0%

Russian Federation 12/11/20 GDP Q3 -3.4% -8.0% Poland 1/15/21 CPI DEC 3.0%

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