Global Oil Dashboard - Q2 2013 - Will Martin - Peakoilproof.com

7/28/2019 Global Oil Dashboard - Q2 2013 - Will Martin - Peakoilproof.com

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Global Oil Productionyear-over-year growth

Real World GDP Growth

Crude Oil PriceBrent yoy change

Supply

Peak Oil Dashboard: Page 1Q2 2013

Created by Will Martin - Peakoilproof.com

Global Peak Oil Summary

This dashboard is designed to quickly summarize the global oil market over the past quarter. By keeping track of keyquantitative indicators on a quarterly basis, this dashboard can help monitor the onset of peak oil.

The global rate of oil production is up slightly year-over-year.However, during the same period global net exports of oildeclined. Production gains in Russia, the US and Canada are justbarely offsetting production declines in Norway, UK, LatinAmerica and the Middle East. Global supermajor productioncontinues to fall. Based on this data, we are likely still on the"bumpy plateau" of peak oil and have likely passed "peak oilexports."

Global oil consumption was up slightly year-over-year withalmost growth coming from the developing world. Thedeveloped world continues to fall from its "peak oil demand"peak. The economies of the developed world are shrinking on a

relative basis to the global economy. Europe is officially in adouble-dip recession. GDP growth remains strong in Asia andthe developing world. In Q1 2013 China overtook the US as theworld's largest oil importer - the first time the top spot haschanged hands in 41 years.

The price of Brent crude oil has been volatile and fell nearly 10%year-over-year, but remained well above historical averages.Prices in futures and options markets seem to indicate a belief that oil prices will continue to fall, possibly due to slowing globaleconomic growth. The global money supply rose over 6% year-over-year as central banks pumped more money into theireconomies, but a falling velocity of money from economicstagnation has so far kept inflation from pushing up oil prices inreal terms.

Demand

Price

-10%

-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

-10%

-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

25%


2/13


3/13

Russia5-Year Net Oil Export CAGR

Saudi Arabia5-Year Net Oil Export CAGR

Iraq5-Year Net Oil Export CAGR

United Arab Emirates5-Year Net Oil Export CAGR

Kuwait5-Year Net Oil Export CAGR

Nigeria5-Year Net Oil Export CAGR

Venezuela5-Year Net Oil Export CAGR

Norway5-Year Net Oil Export CAGR

Libya5-Year Net Oil Export CAGR

Canada5-Year Net Oil Export CAGR

38%

Peak Oil Dashboard: Page 3

Q2 2013Created by Will Martin - Peakoilproof.com

Oil Supply: Export SupplyThe Top 10 Oil Exporting Countries Represent 81% of World Oil Export Supply - Net Exports Estimated Using Jeffrey Brown's Export Land Model

Global oil exports remain relatively flat year-on-year but are still down about 3 MMBPD from their peak in 2004. Six of the top 10 oil exporting nations are now experiencing 5-year netexport rate declines. Saudi Arabia, Nigeria, Venezuela, Norway and Libya are all seeing lower rates of net exports. This decline has been somewhat offset by huge increases in oil exportsfrom Iraq and Canada. Total liquid production rates continue to decline for the Supermajors. Overall, global net oil exports do not appear to be responding to record-high oil prices, signalingthat we may be on the "bumpy plateau" of peak oil and may have passed the point of "peak oil exports."

Global Net Oil ExportsFor Top 19 Oil Exporting Nations

Supermajor Production RateBP, Chevron, ExxonMobil, Shell, & Total

Peak OilSooner

Russia

Saudi Arabia

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

J u n - 0

3

D e c - 0

3

J u n - 0

4

D e c - 0

4

J u n - 0

5

D e c - 0

5

J u n - 0

6

D e c - 0

6

J u n - 0

7

D e c - 0

7

J u n - 0

8

D e c - 0

8

J u n - 0

9

D e c - 0

9

J u n - 1

0

D e c - 1

0

J u n - 1

1

D e c - 1

1

J u n - 1

2

D e c - 1

2

J u n - 1

3

T h o u s a n

d B P D

ExxonMobil

Chevron

Shell

Total

BP

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

2 0 0 0

2 0 0 1

2 0 0 2

2 0 0 3

2 0 0 4

2 0 0 5

2 0 0 6

2 0 0 7

2 0 0 8

2 0 0 9

2 0 1 0

2 0 1 1

2 0 1 2

T o t a

l L i q u i d s P r o

d u c t i o n R a t e

( T h o u s a n

d B P D

)

10%

Peak OilSooner

Peak OilSooner

Peak OilSooner

Peak OilSooner

10% 10% 10% 10%

Peak OilSooner

Peak OilSooner

Peak OilSooner

Peak OilSooner

Peak OilSooner

10% 10% 10% 10% 10%


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Russia Russia Q2 2013 News Saudi Arabia Saudi Arabia Q2 2013 NewsIn Q2, Russian oil production continued past its a post-Soviet record achieved in Q1 2013. Ru ssia is now theworlds largest oil producer and world largest oilexporter.In Q1 China passed Europe to become Russias numberone oil market. In Q2, the Sino-Russian energyrelationship grew even stronger. Russia announcedthat China National Petroleum Corp will begin exploringfor Arctic oil in Russian waters alongside Rosneft.Rosneft then signed a 25 year agreement to deliver 365million tons of oil to China - one of the largest oil dealsin history.Russia gave temporary asylum to US whistleblowerEdward Snowden - harming US-Russian relations.

Export cannibalization continues to grow in SaudiArabia. The Saudis have 3 new refineries underconstruction that will reduce net exports by 1.2 millionBPD in 2017. In Q2, Saudi Arabia passed Germany intotal oil consumption.Perhaps indicating Saudi Peak Oil is imminent, SaudiArabia's Oil Minister Ali Al-Naimi was quoted as saying"We dont really see a need to build a capacity beyondwhat we have today."Stability remains precarious: oil revenue accounts for93% of revenue for the Saudi government, which nowneeds $94/bbl oil to balance their budget. Based onactuarial tables, the 88-year old King Abdullah has a15% chance of dying in the next year.

Iraq Iraq Q2 2013 News United Arab Emirates United Arab Emirates Q2 2013 News1/2 of Iraqi oil exports now go to China. Chinese oilcompanies are increasingly displacing US ones.Chaos continued in many parts of the country with carbombs going off on an almost daily basis. 1000 Iraqiswere killed in attacks in May. Southern Iraq is on theverge of a Sunni-Shiite civil war.

Kurdistan began exporting oil directly to Turkey,bypassing the federal Iraqi government completely. InQ2 a brigade of Iraqs Kurdish t roops defected toKurdistan, further hurting relations. Turkey recentlycompleted a new pipeline to Northern Iraq and signedan agreement Turkey to develop Iraqi oil fields.

In Q2 UAE oil minister Suhail Al Mazrouei declared thatthe "Days of Easy, Cheap Oil are Gone" and announcedthat the country would begin constructing nuclearpower plants to provide 25% of its electricity by 2021.In Q1 the UAE opened the worlds largest solar plant,named Shams 1.

Kuwait Kuwait Q2 2013 News Nigeria Nigeria Q2 2013 NewsKuwait announced that it plans to spend $56 billionover the next 5 years to raise production by 650,000bpd by 2020.

The Kuwaiti central bank announced that its economywould likely grow at just 1.9% in 2013 slowing oilexport cannibalization.

Nigerias oil production continues to fall, mostly as theresult of vandalism and oil theft. Crude oil theft nowcosts the country $7 billion annually. Attacks onpipelines and offshore rigs and hijackings of tankerscontinues. A nationwide blackout hit the country inMay. Nigeria's rebel MEND group, which frequentlyattacks oil infrastructure, announced it would beginattacking mosques.

Nigeria's government continues to fight Islamistmilitants in the Northern provinces. Nigerias four mainopposition parties formed a coalition, threateningPresident Goodluck Jonathan's hold on power.

Venezuela Venezuela Q2 2013 News Norway Norway Q2 2013 NewsIn Q2 Nicolas Maduro was sworn in as president,following the death of Hugo Chvez on March 5th,2013. Maduro will continue the oil industry policies of Chvez. Maduro's oil minister, Rafael Ramirez,repeated his assertion that $100/bbl should be the floorfor oil prices.Venezuela announced a major currency devaluation inQ1. As of Q2, the country is on the brink of hyperinflation, with annualized inflation topping 20%.The government has begun rationing everything fromtoilet paper to chickens. Blac kouts are becoming morecommon and hyperinflation could collapse Venezuela'seconomy, forcing down oil production rates.

Norway proves how relentless peak oil can be. Oilproduction continues to plummet; passing a 25-yearlow this year. The state of Texas now produces moreoil than the country of Norway. Over the past 11 years,Norway has fallen from the world's 7th largest oilexporter to the world's 14th largest today.

The oil ministry announced that it expects productionto continue to decline in 2013 and bottom out nextyear as new projects come online.

Libya Libya Q2 2013 News Canada Canada Q2 2013 NewsOil production hit 70% of its pre-Arab Spring levels.

Bombings, kidnappings and assassinations continue tomake the prospects of stability uncertain. Protestscontinue in Benghazi. In Q2 NATO sent a contingent of soldiers to help train Libyan government forces againstmilitants aligning themselves with Al Qaeda.

Canadian oil production is up dramatically year-over-

year. In Q2 Canada accounted for 38.7% of U.S. crudeimports, the most ever by a single nation.

Oil sands production rose 13% during 2012 despite costincreases of more than 10% per year. Oil sandsproduction could rise from 1.8 MMBPD today to 5.2MMBPD by 2030 if it isn't hampered by climate changelegislation or lower prices.

In March, 5,000 barrels of tar sands oil being deliveredfrom Canada spilled from Exxon's Pegasus pipeline intoa residential neighborhood in Arkansas.



Oil Supply: Export Supply: News SummariesThe Top 10 Oil Exporting Countries Represent 81% of World Oil Export Supply - Net Exports Estimated Using Jeffrey Brown's Export Land Model - Summaries Come From Tom Whipple's Weekly "Peak Oil Review"

0

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12000

T h o u s a n

d B a r r e

l s P e r D a y

P rodu ct ion Net E xport s

Consumption

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12000

T h o u s a n

d B a r r e

l s P e r D a y

P rodu ct ion Net E xpor ts

Consumption

-500

0

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3500

T h o u s a n d

B a r r e

l s P e r D a y


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d B a r r e

l s P e r D a y


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l s P e r D a y


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l s P e r D a y


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d B a r r e

l s P e r D a y


Consumption

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T h o u s a n

d B a r r e

l s P e r D a y


Consumption

-500

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d B a r r e

l s P e r D a y


Consumption

-500

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T h o u s a n

d B a r r e

l s P e r D a y


Consumption


5/13



Oil Supply: Production Costs and Operating Profits

Production costs continue to increase for oil drilling. Despite record-high oil prices, these increasing costs are resulting in declining profits for oil majors

US and Canada Total Drilling Rig Count Supermajor Quarterly Operating Profits

US Capital & Labor Expenditure Spending per Barrel of Oil Produced US Cost Per Well Drilled

$0

$500,000

$1,000,000

$1,500,000

$2,000,000

$2,500,000

$3,000,000

$3,500,000

$4,000,000

$4,500,000

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

US Nominal Cost per Crude Oil Well Drilled

US Real Cost per Crude Oil/Natural Gas/Dry Well Drilled

$0

$10,000,000,000

$20,000,000,000

$30,000,000,000

$40,000,000,000

$50,000,000,000

$60,000,000,000

$70,000,000,000

Q1-2012 Q2-2012 Q3-2012 Q4-2012 Q1-2013

ExxonMobil Chevron Shell Total BP

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

J u n - 9

3

J a n - 9

4

A u g - 9 4

M a r - 9

5

O c t - 9

5

M a y - 9

6

D e c - 9 6

J u l - 9 7

F e b

- 9 8

S e p - 9

8

A p r - 9 9

N o v - 9 9

J u n - 0

0

J a n - 0

1

A u g - 0 1

M a r - 0

2

O c t - 0

2

M a y - 0

3

$0

$20

$40

$60

$80

$100

$120

$140

$160

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

US Capital Expenditure per Barrel Produced US Labor Expenditure per Barrel Produced


6/13


7/13


8/13

China (#1 Oil Importer)Real GDP Growth

United States (#2)Real GDP Growth

European Union (#3)Real GDP Growth

Japan (#4)Real GDP Growth

India (#5)Real GDP Growth

China (#1 Oil Importer)Real GDP Growth Relative to World

United States (#2)Real GDP Growth Relative to World

European Union (#3)Real GDP Growth Relative to World

Japan (#4)Real GDP Growth Relative to World

India (#5)Real GDP Growth Relative to World



Oil Demand: Global Oil Import DemandThe Top 5 Countries/Regions (US, EU, China, Japan & India) Represent 52% of World Oil Import Demand

For the top oil importing countries, GDP continues to increase but at a slowing rate. Almost all of Europe is now in a recession. Some countries, such as Greece and Portugal are in a severerecession. The economies of the United States and Japan are both growing on a real basis but shrinking on a relative basis to the rest of the world. Economic growth remains robust in China andIndia, propping up global oil import demand, pushing the date of global peak oil closer.

Global Real GDP GDP Winners & LosersAnnual Real GDP Growth Rate

Peak OilSooner

Peak OilSooner

Peak OilSooner

Peak OilSooner

Peak OilSooner

Peak OilSooner

Peak OilSooner

Peak OilSooner

Peak OilSooner

Peak OilSooner

-10%

-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

-10%

-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

-10%

-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

-10%

-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

-10%

-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

-10%

-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

-10%

-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

-10%

-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

-10%

-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

-10%

-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

-2.0%

-1.0%

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

Q 2 - 0

8

Q 3 - 0

8

Q 4 - 0

8

Q 1 - 0

9

Q 2 - 0

9

Q 3 - 0

9

Q 4 - 0

9

Q 1 - 1

0

Q 2 - 1

0

Q 3 - 1

0

Q 4 - 1

0

Q 1 - 1

1

Q 2 - 1

1

Q 3 - 1

1

Q 4 - 1

1

Q 1 - 1

2

Q 2 - 1

2

Q 3 - 1

2

Q 4 - 1

2

Q 1 - 1

3

Q 2 - 1

3$14.00

$14.50

$15.00

$15.50

$16.00

$16.50

$17.00

$17.50

$18.00

$18.50

A n n u a

l G r o w t h R a t e

( l i n e )

Q u a r t e r

l y R e a l W o r

l d G D P

( $ T r i l l i o n 2 0 0 5

)

-8.00% -6.00% -4.00% -2.00% 0.00% 2.00% 4.00% 6.00% 8.00% 10.00%

GreecePortugal

ItalyCroatiaSpain

Czech RepublicNetherlands

FinlandHungary

IrelandW Europe

European UnionBelgium

FranceDenmarkGermany

AustriaJapan

United KingdomBulgaria

SingaporePoland

NorwayRomaniaSweden

Slovak RepublicCanada

SwitzerlandSouth Korea

BrazilUnited States

South AfricaTaiwanTurkey

ArgentinaRussia

Venezuela, RBHong Kong, China

MexicoAustralia

WorldIndia

MalaysiaChile

IndonesiaPhilippines

IraqThailand

China


9/13

China Q2 2013 NewsIn 2013 China overtook the US as the worlds largest net oil import er - a spot the US had held since 1972. Chinese car sales rose 20% year-over-y ear, but Chinas economy grew at itsslowest rate in 13 years as exports fell. In April, a short-lived cash crisis hit the country.

China signed a major gas deal with Russia to import natural gas from Russian fields. Russia also announced that it would double its exports of oil to China. China awarded contractsto 16 companies to drill in Chinas shale gas reserv es, but not a single one has ever drilled a gas well before. So far China has drilled 60 shale wells and they have all come up dry.

China is the world's largest emitter of carbon dioxide and at current pace will produce 4 times more CO2 than the US by 2020. Air pollution levels in Beijing went literally off the scalein Q1 2013. Not coincidentally , Chinas coal consumption levels reached a record high. China now burns as much coal as the rest of the world combined. It is estimated that 1.2million Chinese die a year from the horrendous air pollution. In March 16,000 dead pigs were found floating down the river that supplies drinking water to Shanghai.In Q1 Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao called for action to alleviate the pollution and tax minister Jia Chen announced that China would introduce a carbon tax. In Q2, China announced itwill begin setting up a carbon trading market. China continued to pull ahead as the world leader in renewable energy. Wind power overtook nuclear power in China, producing 2%more electricity overall. For 2013, China announced it will install more than 5 times more wind power than nuclear power and more than 3 times more solar power than nuclearpower. China now installs three tim es more solar each year as the United States accounting for a third of the total world solar panels instal led each year.

China announced plans to build a second aircraft carrier and Hong Kong, a Chinese protectorate, gave temporary asylum to US whistleblower Edward Snowden - harming US-Chinarelations.

United States Q2 2013 NewsIn Q1 US oil production reached a 20-year high, hitting 7 million bpd for the first time since March 1993. Meanwhile, the US has almost certainly passed peak oil demand. US oildemand dropped to an 18-year low and us oil imports fell to their lowest level in 25 years. Gasoline consumption is at its lowest level since 2004. In Q1 Obamas State of the Unionaddress specifically endorsed the McCain/Lieberman cap and trade bill; If climate change legislation is enacted, US oil demand would drop further.While shale oil production rose dramatically, all other forms of US oil fell. US Gulf of Mexico oil production continued to decline off its 2009 peak. Produc tion from Alaskas NorthSlope continues to fall from its 2002 peak and was down 8% year-over-year. Shell Oil gave up on the 2013 Arctic drilling season after its oil rig, the Kulluk, ran aground in Alaska.Worryingly , the Bakken shale oil boom in North Dakota may be slowing down, with the initial productivi ty of new wells dropping. Companies are shifting their focus to CaliforniasMonterey shale, where they may face heavy environmentalist opposition.

In Q2 Obama announced a series of executive actions designed to address Climate Change, including limitations on carbon emissions from existing power plants, increased applianceefficiency standards and promotion of renewable energy development on public lands. Renewable energy in the US continues to grow with solar capacity increasing 76% year-over-year. Obama announced Ernest Moniz, a supporter of fracking, as his nomination for Secretary of Energy. Obama also announced Gina McCarthy, a former Mitt Romney aide, as hispick to head the EPA. In Q2 the EPA announced its new "Tier 3" gasoline regulations which will bring US sulfur requirements in line with California's.

The Federal Reserve has kee p interest rates near 0% for four years and has tripled its balance sheet by continuing pump $85 billion each month into the economy. In Q2 FEDChairman Ben Bernanke announced plans to "taper" such money printing; the market reacted swiftly to the negative and Bernanke quickly reversed his rhetoric.

European Union Q2 2013 NewsEurope was officially in a double-dip recession in Q1 2013, shrinking by 0.6%. Greeces economy shrunk by 6.4% year-over-year. Unemployment in the Eurozone rose to 12% - thehighest level si nce the Eurozone was created in 1999. Europe has passed peak oil demand, with oil demand now down 2 million BPD from 7 years ago. In Q2 US exports of diesel toEurope hit a 23 year high. The EU now produces 13% of its energy from renewable sources.

In Q1 Cyprus announced a one-time bank levy on all Cypriot bank account s on March 15th as part of a 10 billion bailout. A panicked bank run ensued and the government wasforced to close all banks for 12 days. The government reopened its banks after it promised not to confiscat e money from accounts smaller than 100,000.

In Italy, the government will likely remain in political gridlock after parliamentary elections split three ways, leaving no party in a position to govern.

Japan Q2 2013 NewsJapan remained in a recession, with its economy contracting for the third straight quarter. The escalating rhetoric between Japan and China over the Senkaku islands cooled whenJapans new prime minister Shinz Abe send a letter to Chinese president Xi Jinping, expressing his interest in a peaceful resolution. The new prime minister also announced hewould approve the construction of new nuclear reactors a complete 180 from former Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda, who planned to shut down all Japanese nuclear power plantsby 2040. Japan announced it would begin restarting its idled nuclear power plants by the end of 2013 but in Q2 announced it would be imposs ible to restart the plants on s chedule.

New safety regulations are expected to shut down 10 more nuclear reactors.

In Q1 2013, after spending $700 million on the decade-long project, Japanese scientists announced that they had successfully extracted natural gas from subsea methane hydrates.

India Q2 2013 NewsIn Q1 India became the 4th largest oil consumer after China, the US and Russia. Meanwhile, Indias oil production rate fell 4% year-over-year. Amidst continued electrici ty shortages,Indian coal imports fell 11% year-over-year. In Q1 the Indian government announced that it would raise gasoline and diesel prices as it continues to slowly phase out fuel subsidies.

In Q2 Prime Minister Manmohan Singh announced plans to double India's renewable energy generation by 2017.



Oil Demand: Global Oil Import Demand: News SummariesTop 5 Countries/Regions (US, EU, China, Japan & India) Represent 52% of World Oil Import Demand - Summaries From Tom Whipple's Weekly "Peak Oil Review"


10/13

Global Crude Oil PriceBrent year-over-year % change

US Gasoline PriceUS Mogas year-over-year % change

Brent Put Option PayoffsCAGR of Returns

Brent Call PayoffsCAGR of Returns

Brent Straddle PayoffsCAGR of Returns

-6.4% -3.0%

Brent Futures WTI Futures

Backwardation Backwardation

Greeks: Brent Crude Call Options Brent Crude Put OptionsReal Option Price: $12.20 $5.92

Implied Volitility: 12.87%

Calculated Option Price:(based on Black Scholes) $14.39 $1.46

Delta:(Velocity: Change in option P&L per change in valueof Brent crude; Moneyness: the implied probability

of expiring in-the-money)

0.83 -0.17

Gamma:(Acceleration: Change in option Delta per change in

value of Brent crude) 0.02 0.02

Vega:(Changes in Volitility: Change option P&L from change

in volitility of Brent crude) 0.30 0.30

Theta:(Passage of Time: Change in option P&L from the

passage of time) 0.00 0.00

Rho:(Interest Rate Change: change in option P&L from

changes in interest rates) 0.97 -0.25

Oil Prices

Global oil pries are down year-over-year. This 1-year and 2-year trend of declining oil prices has reversed the 5-year and 10-year trends of rising oil prices. Both Brent and WTI crude oilfutures are in backwardation, indicating that traders expect the price of oil to fall in the future. This backwardation benefits investors who take long positions in futures ETFs (like DBO &OIL), as there is no negative roll yield," like when oil is in congtango. The commitment of speculative traders and the difference in expected payoffs from put and call options contracts,however, tell us that traders believe that a price drop is le3ss likely than a price rise over the long term.



CFTC Commitment of Traders (Futures and Options)

WTI Crude Oil Implied Volatility SurfaceBrent Crude Oil Price

$70

$75

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$85

$90$95

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- 1 3

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- 1 4

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4

10-Year Linear (10-Year) Linear (5-Year) Linear (1-Year)

-10%

0%

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$ 4 0

. 0 0

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. 0 0

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. 0 0

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. 0 0

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. 0 0

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. 0 0

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$ 9 0

. 0 0

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80%

90%

100%

$ 4 0

. 0 0

$ 6 5

. 0 0

$ 9 0

. 0 0

$ 1 1 5

. 0 0

$ 1 4 0

. 0 0

Dec-14 Dec-15

Dec-16 Dec-17

25% 25%

0.91.4

2.43.4

4.46.00%

8.00%

10.00%

12.00%

14.00%

16.00%

$ 8 0 $

8 5 $

9 0 $

9 5

$ 1 0 0

$ 1 0 5

$ 1 1 0

I m p

l i e d V o

l a t i

l i t y

( % )

Strike Prices

-

200,000,000

400,000,000

600,000,000

800,000,000

1,000,000,000

1,200,000,000

1,400,000,000

1,600,000,000

1,800,000,000

Long Short

B a r r e

l s

Commercial Speculators Non- Reportable Posit ions


11/13


12/13


13/13

Page 6 Notes: "Oil Production" is the monthly total "Oil Product Demand" for each country. Demand data comes from the Oil Market Intelligence report published by Energy Intelligence Group.Data was pulled into Microsoft Excel using Haver Analytics Data Link Express (DLX).

Peak Oil Dashboard: Data NotesQ2 2013


Page 7 Notes: Quarterly GDP data comes from Oxford Economics' global macroeconomic database. Relative GDP growth of each country is caculated as the change in the real (2005 US$ Prices &PPP Exchange Rate) GDP of a country as a percentage of total GDP. Data was pulled into Microsoft Excel using Haver Analytics Data Link Express (DLX) . Thank you to Mark McHug(http://acrossthestreetnet.wordpress.com/) for giving me the idea to measure GDP growth of countries relative to one another as well as measuring global GDP growth USD as well as in oilbarrels and ounces of gold.

About: I created this dashboard to keep track of the key quantitative indicators of peak oil. Oil is a finite resource and peak oil will happen eventually. Because some experts, such as the EnergyWatch Group, believe that peak oil is happening ri ght now, I want to keep track of these indicators on a real-time basis. I designed this dashboard to be mostly automated, in order to allow me toeasily update it on a quarterly basis. All of the information contained herein is publically available; I use no private data.

Page 1 Notes: This is simply a summary of the other pages

Page 2 Notes: "Oil Production" is the monthly total wellhead oil production rate. Wellhead production data comes from the Oil Market Intelligence report published by Energy Intelligence Group.Data was pulled into Microsoft Excel using Haver Analytics Data Link Express (DLX).

Page 3 Notes: "Net Oil Exports" is the monthly total wellhead oil production rate minus the monthly petroleum consumption rate for each country/region. Wellhead production data comes fromthe Oil Market Intelligence report published by Energy Intelligence Group. Country/reg ion petroleum consumption data comes from the annual Oil & Gas Journal from Pennwell Publishing. Theannual oil consumption rate is extrapolated forward using the prior 5-Year compound annual growth rate of consumption (CAGR) and converted into a monthly rate. Data was pulled intoMicrosoft Excel using Haver Analytics Data Link Express (DLX). Supermajor oil production rate data comes from 10-K annual reports published on the Securities and Exchange Commission

Electronic Data Gathering, Analysis, and Retrieval (EDGAR) system.

Page 4 Notes: Thank you to Jeffrey Brown for creati ng the "Export Land Model" that allows us to estimate current net exports of oil producing nations instead of waiti ng for the EIA to releasetheir estimates 2 years after they happen. "Net Oil Exports" is the monthly total wellhead oil production rate minus the monthly petroleum consumption rate for each country/region. Wellheadproduction data comes from the Oil Market Intelligence report published by Energy Intelligence Group. Country/reg ion petroleum consumption data comes from the annual Oil & Gas Journalfrom Pennwell Publishing . The annual oil consumption rate is extrapolated forward using the prior 5-Year compound annual growth rate of consumption (CAGR) and converted into a monthlyrate. Data was pulled into Microsoft Excel using Haver Analytics Data Link Express (DLX).

Page 5 Notes: Drilling rig count data comes from Baker Hughes. Sumermajor quaterly operating prof its come from comes from 10-Q quarterly reports published on the Securities and ExchangeCommission Electronic Data Gathering, Analysis, and Retrieval (EDGAR) sys tem. US capital expenditure per barrel is derived from total US capital expenditure in the petrolium industry divided bythe total US crude oil production. Data for capital expenditure, oil production, nominal cost per well and real cost per well come from the Oil & Gas Journal Annual Forecast & Review. Data waspulled into Microsoft Excel using Haver Analytics Data Link Express (DLX).

Page 11 Notes: Data for the money supply of each country comes from Haver Analytics. M3 money supply was used wherever possible. In countries that do not publish M3 data (such as theUnited States) M2 money supply is used instead. A ll money supplies are converted to USD using current exchange rates. Velocity of money comes from the US Federal Reserve.

Page 11 Notes: Stock price data comes from Yahoo Finance. All data is adjusted for dividends and splits.

Page 8 Notes: "Real GDP" is country/region Gross Domestic Product at 2005 US Dollar prices and current Purchasing Power Parity exchange rates. Data comes from Oxford Economics and waspulled into Microsoft Excel using Haver Analytics Data Link Express (DLX).

Page 9 Notes: Summaries come from Tom Whipple's "Peak Oil Review" published weekly by the Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas USA (ASPO-USA): http://aspousa.org/categ ory/peak-oil-review/

Page 10 Notes: Data for crude oil prices and US gasoline prices comes from the Oil & Gas Journal. Data for Brent and WTI crude oil futures comes from IntercontinentalExchange and the ChicagoMercantile Exchange, respecti vly. Data for Brent call and put options comes from barchart.com. Data for the WTI implied volitility surface comes from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange.

Documents

Global Oil Dashboard - Q2 2013 - Will Martin - Peakoilproof.com