Global prospects for the 700MHz spectrum band - Analysys Mason

Global prospects for the 700MHz spectrum band


Webinar

Janette Stewart and Morgan Mullooly

18 July 2012


A key challenge for policy makers is to determine the most socioeconomically advantageous spectrum use

Mobile data demand is growing. An Analysys

Mason forecast estimated that worldwide mobile

data traffic carried over an operator’s cellular

network would grow at a CAGR of 42% from

2011 to 2016 (this excludes Wi-Fi offload

traffic).1

Increasing demand for mobile data generates

demand for more spectrum to deliver more

capacity and drive faster throughput.

But satisfying spectrum demand is becoming

more difficult.

Spectrum planners are faced with competing

demands from many types of spectrum users

such as:

mobile voice and broadband

public protection and disaster relief

broadcast television

machine-to-machine

programme making and special events

radio astronomy

defence

radar

aeronautical

and many, many more!

2

1 For more information, see Analysys Mason’s The case for Wi-Fi offload:

costs, benefits and challenges. Available at www.analysysmason.com.


Changes to international frequency allocations are made at the ITU’s World Radiocommunication Conferences

The aim of the World Radiocommunication Conferences (WRC) is to make decisions regarding

allocation of the radio-frequency spectrum, which are documented within an international

frequency allocation table, and associated WRC resolutions.

At the end of each WRC, an agenda is set for the next conference – thereby effectively acting as a

roadmap for the development of wireless communications for the next four or five years.

3

WRC-07

800MHz IMT/

IMT-Advanced

WARC-92

1800MHz

2100MHz IMT-2000

WARC-79 2

900MHz

GSM

WRC-00

2600MHz

IMT-2000

WRC-15

700MHz + other bands

IMT/ IMT-Advanced

Figure 1: Notable assignments of spectrum for mobile by the ITU for Region 1 [Source: Analysys Mason, 2012] 1

1 Region 1 = Europe, Middle East, Africa, former Soviet Union, Mongolia and Iraq

2 WARC = World Administrative Radio Conference. This conference was renamed the World Radiocommunication Conference in 1993.


WRC-07 decided to allocate spectrum for mobile services, for use by IMT/IMT-Advanced systems,

as follows:

790–862MHz (the 800MHz band) in ITU Region 1

698–806MHz (the 700MHz band) in ITU Regions 2 and 3.

The variation between Region 1 and Regions 2 and 3 was due to existing uses in the UHF band:

The Geneva agreement of 2006 (GE06) for countries in ITU Region 1 (Africa, Europe and the

Middle East) planned the transition to digital television broadcasting in VHF spectrum

(174–230MHz) and UHF spectrum (originally 470–862 MHz): many European countries were

well underway with implementing digital terrestrial television (DTT) by WRC-07, and were

planning 790–862MHz as their ‘digital dividend’.

In other regions, second-generation cellular systems already use spectrum in a different part of

the 800MHz band (for example, CDMA850) and so additional spectrum was identified in the

698–790MHz band for future use.

At WRC-07, it was decided to create co-primary allocations between mobile and broadcasting at the top of the UHF band

4


Sub-1GHz spectrum such as the 700MHz and 800MHz bands is particularly attractive for mobile communications

The sub-1GHz spectrum is particularly valuable

because of its propagation characteristics.

It is very attractive spectrum for deploying a

comprehensive (in terms of coverage) network,

relatively quickly.

In Europe, the 800MHz band is becoming

available as a result of the switch-off of

analogue television (analogue switch-off, or

ASO).

While spectrum in the lower frequency bands is

particularly important, operators also have

access to bands above 1GHz (for example,

1.8GHz, 2.1GHz, 2.3GHz 2.6GHz), suitable for

delivering very high data speeds in areas where

capacity is particularly constrained.

5

Figure 2: Propagation characteristics of various 3GPP bands

[Source: Analysys Mason, 2012]

800MHz

900MHz

1800MHz

2100MHz

2600MHz 0.6km2

1km2

1.7km2

4.8km2

5.6km2


At WRC-12 a Resolution was agreed to allocate 700MHz spectrum in Region 1, in order to align with Regions 2 and 3

WRC-15 will specify the technical and

regulatory conditions, channelling and other

arrangements, including regional and global

harmonisation, and will decide on the future

of the band.

Discussion on possible globalisation in use of

the spectrum in the 698–862MHz range

(spanning existing 700MHz and 800MHz

bands) will commence within the ITU-R in a

Joint Task Group (JTG 4-5-6-7) starting in

July 2012.

While operators and regulators in the Middle

East and Africa are anxiously anticipating the

use of mobile in the 700MHz band, the mood

and situation in Europe is more unsettled.

6

WRC-12 agreed a provisional resolution to

co-allocate spectrum between mobile and

broadcasting in the 694–790MHz band (the

700MHz band) in ITU Region 1, to be ratified

at WRC-15.

This resolution was unusual because the

allocation of this band was not on the

conference agenda.

The success of this issue was down to

vigorous lobbying by delegates from the

Middle East and Africa at the conference, who

stressed the importance of the 700MHz band

for deployment of wireless broadband

services.

For the Middle East and Africa, it is expected

that extra spectrum can help bridge the gap

between emerging and developing markets in

terms of wireless broadband availability.


Many factors create a need for the 700MHz spectrum to be available for mobile use in the Middle East and Africa

7

1. Insufficient sub-1GHz spectrum: some countries in

the Middle East and Africa use 850MHz for cellular services

and so cannot make the 800MHz band available in the way the

band is configured in Europe.

2. Development policy perspective: mobile broadband is

of great importance to developments in both regions.

3. Limited use of terrestrial television: terrestrial

broadcasting is of relatively little importance compared to other

television platforms in some countries, and in others is used but

only provides a few channels.

There is a

recognisable

need to release

sub-1GHz

spectrum in the

Middle East and

Africa


Some countries cannot make the 800MHz band available as in Europe because of established cellular 850MHz use

8

Figure 3: Digital dividends in Europe, and the Middle East and Africa [Source: Analysys Mason, 2012]

A primary driver behind interest in the 700MHz spectrum is that many countries in the Middle East

and Africa are unable to make the European 800MHz band available.

In Africa, many regulators have already licensed spectrum above 806MHz and operators had

already deployed CDMA networks in the 806–890MHz band.

Many countries in the Middle East and Africa are just starting to plan digital switchover, and so

they are well placed to take advantage of advances in the DTT standards.

800MHz band digital dividend 2×30MHz

Downlink 30MHz Uplink 30MHz

DD 16MHz

CDMA850 Television broadcast band

790MHz 862MHz

790MHz 806MHz

Television broadcast band


Mobile broadband is important for the delivery of broadband services in both regions

Mobile services are extremely important for the

socioeconomic development of Africa. This is

mainly because the penetration of fixed

broadband in Africa is very low.

In the Middle East, demand for mobile data

services is growing and more spectrum is

needed to accommodate this growth.

In other parts of the world, a vibrant wireless

broadband ecosystem (content, applications,

service models and device categories) has

begun to develop in the 700MHz band, which

could be exploited in Africa and the Middle East.

9

Figure 4: Fixed broadband penetration, Africa, 2011 [Source:

Analysys Mason, 2012]

No data 0–5% 5–10%

10–15%

15–50%


There is limited use of terrestrial television in some parts of the Middle East and Africa

In Africa, television broadcasting does not

have the same level of take-up, or number of

channels, as it does in Europe.

Because countries in the Middle East and

Africa have started to plan digital switchover

much later than in Europe, they are well

positioned to use newer technologies such as

DVB-T2, which offers better spectrum

efficiency.

In Europe, by contrast, most countries use

DVB-T with multi-frequency networks (MFN)

and substantial planning will be needed to

migrate to DVB-T2 with single-frequency

networks (SFN).

10

Figure 5: Proportion of households that have a least one

television, Africa, July 2012 [Source: Analysys Mason, 2012]

80–100% 60–80% 40–60%

20–40%

0–20%


In Europe, MNOs and regulators need more sub-1GHz mobile spectrum to be available, but releasing 700MHz is problematic

11

Mixed views in

Europe

A recognised

need for more

sub 1-GHz

spectrum is

coupled with the

complexity of

implementation

1. Development policy perspective: more spectrum is

needed in Europe because of the growing demand for

mobile data.

2. Globalisation: European regulators are cognisant of

the global harmonisation opportunities for the 700MHz band,

but wary of the problems of making it available, because of

extensive DTT use.

3. Importance of broadcast television: DTT is an

important platform in several countries in Europe.

Broadcasters cannot give up the 700MHz band without

substantial network re-planning, and seriously addressing,

the long-term sustainability of the DTT platform.


More spectrum is needed in Europe because of the increasing demand for mobile data [1]

In Europe, MNOs have made strong calls for

more spectrum, related to the demand for

mobile data.

Wireless data traffic growth will continue to

grow exponentially in the region during the

next five years (although wireless data traffic

is beginning to level off in some countries –

this will be reflected in our forthcoming

Wireless network traffic worldwide: forecasts

and analysis 2012–2017.

Operators are also increasingly using Wi-Fi to

offload traffic, but more licensed spectrum is

required.

12

Figure 6: Total wireless traffic growth forecast, Western Europe,

2011–2016 [Source: Analysys Mason, 2012]

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Pe

tab

yte

s p

er

mo

nth

Western Europe


More spectrum is needed in Europe because of the increasing demand for mobile data [2]

The release of the 700MHz band for Europe

is recognised within the objectives of the

Radio Spectrum Policy Programme

(RSPP).

There is a target of 1200MHz of spectrum to

be allocated for mobile communication

(around 800MHz available at present, so

around 400MHz of additional spectrum is

needed).

However, while sub-1GHz spectrum is an

excellent coverage solution, European MNOs

have capacity challenges, for which supra-

1GHz spectrum may be a more appropriate

solution.

13

Radio Spectrum Policy Programme

The RSPP was drawn up by the European

Commission, first proposed in September

2010.

The European Parliament voted on 15

February 2012 to adopt. Its guidelines

include:

authorisation of existing harmonised

EU spectrum to be completed, by YE-

2012

800MHz band licences should be

awarded to mobile by the beginning

2013; exceptions in justified cases

at least 1200MHz should be allocated to

mobile by 2015

a spectrum inventory is to be

established by mid-2013

spectrum trading in certain bands

should be permitted.


European regulators are wary of problems in releasing the 700MHz band, but recognise its international importance [1]

Implementation dates for digital switchover

vary considerably across Europe.

The ITU’s recommended international

switchover date is 17 June 2015.

In Europe, a target ASO date of January 2013

has been set.

In some European countries, DTT has been

in use for nearly 15 years (for example, UK

was the first country to launch DVB-T In

1997).

14

Figure 7: Status of analogue switch-off (ASO) in Europe, July

2012 [Source: Analysys Mason, 2012]

ASO achieved ASO not yet achieved


European regulators are wary of problems in releasing the 700MHz band, but recognise its international importance [2]

DTT is an important platform in many parts of

Europe – even though cable, satellite, and

online and IP-based platforms also distribute

broadcast content to many homes.

Furthermore, in many cases, regulators have

long-term licensing arrangements in place

with broadcasters operating the 470–790MHz

band, and specific obligations are in place, for

example, in relation to coverage targets for

public service broadcasting.

Spectrum availability for DTT is particularly

constrained within European border areas,

where complex multi-country co-ordination

arrangements are in place to avoid

interference.

15

Figure 8: Status of the DTT platform in European countries,

July 2012 [Source: Analysys Mason, 2012]

DTT is main distribution platform

DTT is second distribution platform

DTT is third/fourth distribution platform


Substantial re-planning may be required in Europe in order to release 700MHz frequencies, although convergence may help

Countries that use DVB-T and MFNs need to

consider how networks might migrate to DVB-

T2 and SFN, while still meeting licence

obligations such as public service

broadcasting coverage.

This is likely to require a co-ordinated re-

planning of DTT frequencies across Europe,

in view of the arrangements in place in areas

that are close to country borders.

The European Commission has indicated it

believes convergence can play a role in re-

distributing UHF spectrum in Europe,

cognisant of increased use of smartphones

and tablet PCs for video streaming.

16

Figure 9: BBC iPlayer (television catch-up service) usage,

requests by type of device as a proportion of the total,

December 2010 and December 2011

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

Dec-10 Dec-11R

equ

ests

, m

illio

n

Computers Virgin Media cable VoD

Games consoles Mobile devices

Tablets IPTV devices

Other devices


European broadcasting industry groups are opposed to the release of the 700MHz band

European Broadcast Union

The frequency band 470 – 790 MHz should be retained for the delivery of broadcasting services (both

linear and non linear)…This would provide certainty to broadcasters and the industry alike, and encourage

further standardisation work and investments. [Link]

Digitag

Any further reduction in spectrum availability must mean less programme services or reduced quality… It

becomes even more necessary for terrestrial broadcasters to highlight the importance of the DTT

platform as the mass-audience, frequency-efficient, distribution medium. [Link]

Broadcast Networks Europe

These [DTT] services, which consumers have come to depend on, are delivered using the UHF radio

spectrum, including the 700 MHz band. This band is crucial not only to the sustained delivery of audio-

visual content to European consumers but also to any future platform developments e.g.3D TV [Link]

Association of Commercial Television in Europe

With regards to the 700 MHz band, commercial broadcasters warn that it is far too early to consider

further spectrum reallocation as several European Member States have yet to put in place the necessary

measures for the 800 MHz band and use the spectrum which is already available to its full capacity. [Link]

17

http://tech.ebu.ch/docs/r/r136.pdf

http://www.digitag.org/WebLetters/2012/External-Feb2012.html

http://www.broadcast-networks.eu/wp-content/uploads/2012/06/2012-03-12-BNE-Policy-Paper-on-WRC12-and-the-RSPP-F.pdf

http://www.acte.be/EPUB/easnet.dll/execreq/page?eas:dat_im=025B45&eas:template_im=025AE9


The challenge of harmonisation is a difficult one, but is particularly fraught in the case of the 700MHz band

Spectrum harmonisation is difficult, but

necessary.

Alternative and incompatible band plans are

already in place in ITU Region 2 (in Canada

and the USA) and ITU Region 3 (Asia–

Pacific).

Now, in ITU Region 1, the following

organisations will put forward proposals for

different band plans.

The African Telecommunications Union (ATU)

Arab Spectrum Management Group (ASMG)

The European Conference of Postal and

Telecommunications Administrations (CEPT).

Organisations in the Middle East and Africa

are expected settle on a band plan more

quickly than those in Europe.

18

Figure 10: The benefits of harmonisation outweigh the

challenges [Source: Analysys Mason, 2012]


698 716 746 758 776 788

700MHz band

800MHz band

698MHz 806MHz 790MHz 862MHz

Downlink Uplink

Uplink Downlink

Europe (Region 1)

United States and Canada (Region 2)

791 821 832 862

703 748 758 803

Possible “lost spectrum” due to overlap

Asia Pacific (Region3)

Uplink Downlink Downlink Uplink

Difficulties confront Europe if it wishes to harmonise the 700MHz band with the plans of other regions

19

Figure 11: Digital dividend band plans in Asia–Pacific, Europe, and Canada and the USA [Source: Analysys Mason, 2012]


ITU Region 1: the UAE is the first country in Region 1 to publish its intended band plan for the 700MHz band

20

Figure 12: Proposed 700MHz band plan, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) [Source: Analysys Mason, 2012]

The United Arab Emirates (UAE) regulator, the Telecommunications Regulatory Authority (TRA), is

the first regulator in Region 1 to put forward its intended band plan for use in the 700MHz band.

It is working with the broadcasters to vacate the 700MHz band and make it available for mobile by

WRC-15 or earlier.

The TRA announced in a consultation document published in May 2012 that it intends to use the

above 2×30MHz frequency plan, which it developed unilaterally.

LTE FDD uplink 30MHz

Gap 25MHz

694 MHz 703 733 758 788 790MHz

LTE FDD downlink 30MHz

LTE800 2×30MHz DTT


ITU Region 2: the USA 700MHz band plan

21

Figure 13: The USA’s 700MHz band plan [Source: Analysys Mason, 2012]

In the USA, the broadcast of terrestrial television had switched from analogue to digital

transmission by February 2009.

The USA’s 700MHz band, is formed from two sub-bands: the upper 700MHz sub-band and lower

700MHz sub-band. Each has its own band plan.

Unfortunately, two non-interoperable band classes for devices have emerged in the lower 700MHz

band.

698MHz Unpaired 806MHz

A 6MHz

UL

B 6MHz

UL

C 6MHz

UL

D 6MHz

E 6MHz

C 12MHz

DL

D 6MHz

DL

(PS)*

Public

Safety UL

12MHz

C 12MHz

UL

D 6MHz

UL

(PS)*

Public

Safety DL

12MHz

A 6MHz

DL

B 6MHz

DL

C 6MHz

DL

The lower 700MHz band The upper 700MHz band

1MHz guard bands, auctioned for

commercial use

* The upper 700MHz D block was reallocated to public safety in February 2012.


The 700MHz band is earmarked for LTE in Asia–Pacific and the above-FDD band plan was

accepted as standardised by 3GPP in June 2012 (3GPP Band 28). It is 2×45MHz from 703–

748MHz/758–803MHz.

There is also a TDD band plan of 100MHz, although at this stage no country has announced that it

will adopt this plan.

Compared to the USA’s band plan, the APT band plan maximises the amount of usable spectrum

for mobile communication.

ITU Region 3: Asia–Pacific and the APT 700MHz band plans

22

Figure 14: The APT 700MHz band plan [Source: Analysys Mason, 2012]

FDD uplink 45MHz

FDD downlink 45 MHz

698MHz 703 748 758 803 806MHz

10MHz

duplex

gap

TDD uplink 100MHz

698MHz 703 803 806MHz


Africa is also discussing alternative plans

23


5

MHz FDD uplink

45MHz

698MHz 703 748 753 758 803MHz

5M

Hz LTE FDD downlink

45MHz

5M

Hz

Figure 15: Global 700MHz band plans [Source: Analysys Mason, 2012]

693MHz 703 748 758 803 813MHz

PPDR

UL 10MHz


Gap 10MHz


PPDR

DL 10MHz


Gap 15MHz

PPDR

UL ? 10MHz

PPDR

DL ? 10MHz

693MHz 703 733 748 758 788MHz




698MHz 703 748 758 803 806MHz

Gap 10MHz


Gap 25MHz

694MHz 703 733 758 788 790MHz


LTE800 FDD downlink 30MHz

DTT

791MHz

PR

OP

OS

ED


Is it possible that mobile use will extend beyond 700MHz in future?

The UHF band spans a wide range of

frequencies (470–862MHz in total).

It seems unlikely that spectrum much below

700MHz can be used for mobile broadband

services.

As frequencies go below around 700MHz, it

also becomes increasingly difficult to use

those frequencies for mobile services as a

result of the need for larger antennas to

account for greater levels of RF noise.

24

Figure 16: Device size is correlated with spectrum band

[Source: Analysys Mason, 2012]

Radio frequency spectrum


Never say never: incentive auctions could free up some spectrum for mobile in the 600MHz band in the USA

In the USA, DTT is not a prominent

platform; more than 90% of households

subscribe to cable and satellite.

Incentive auctions have been proposed in

the USA. Broadcasters could offer their

spectrum for auction to MNOs, and receive

a share in the proceeds.

DTT broadcasts will have to be reshuffled

into a position further down the spectrum.

Mobile will then occupy a contiguous

portion of the 600MHz band.

25

Figure 17: The USA [Source: Analysys Mason, 2012]


Contact details

26

Cambridge

Tel: +44 (0)845 600 5244

Fax: +44 (0)1223 460866

[email protected]

Dubai

Tel: +971 (0)4 446 7473

Fax: +971 (0)4 446 9827

[email protected]

Dublin

Tel: +353 (0)1 602 4755

Fax: +353 (0)1 602 4777

[email protected]

Edinburgh

Tel: +44 (0)845 600 5244

Fax: +44 (0)131 443 9944

[email protected]

London

Tel: +44 (0)845 600 5244

Fax: +44 (0)20 7395 9001

[email protected]

Madrid

Tel: +34 91 399 5016

Fax: +34 91 451 8071

[email protected]

Milan

Tel: +39 02 76 31 88 34

Fax: +39 02 36 50 45 50

[email protected]

New Delhi

Tel: +91 11 4700 3100

Fax: +91 11 4700 3102

[email protected]

Paris

Tel: +33 (0)1 72 71 96 96

Fax: +33 (0)1 72 71 96 97

[email protected]

Singapore

Tel: +65 6493 6038

Fax: +65 6720 6038

[email protected]

Washington DC

Tel: +1 202 331 3080

Fax: +1 202 331 3083

[email protected]

Manchester

Tel: +44 (0)845 600 5244

Fax: +44 (0)161 877 7810

[email protected]

Janette Stewart

Senior Manager

[email protected]

Morgan Mullooly

Research Analyst

[email protected]

Documents

Global prospects for the 700MHz spectrum band - Analysys Mason