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‘Peak’ Summit, Alcatraz, Italy, June 27, 2009
Global Resource Depletion:
Metal minerals scarcity and the Elements of Hope
[email protected]@tno.nl
Dr. A.M. Diederen MEngSci, June 27, 2009Metal minerals scarcity and the Elements of Hope2
Contents
Exponential growth
“Harvesting speed” versus “ultimate quantity”
Decreasing energy per capita
Energy scarcity means materials scarcity
Metal mineral reserves
Timing of metals scarcity
Geopolitical situation
Consequences of metals scarcity
Solution frameworks
The Elements of Hope
Bottomline
2
Dr. A.M. Diederen MEngSci, June 27, 2009Metal minerals scarcity and the Elements of Hope3
Exponential growthroot cause of global resource depletion
growth rate doubling time
(% per year) (years)
2 363 24
4 18
5 14
6 12
7 1010 7
1900
1924
1972
1948
1996
2020
Dr. A.M. Diederen MEngSci, June 27, 2009Metal minerals scarcity and the Elements of Hope4
“Harvesting speed” versus “ultimate quantity”
• There is a shortage when supply as a function of time can no longer
keep up with demand as a function of time
• The ultimate “recoverable” quantity is irrelevant in this respect
(“it is not possible to have a baby in one month with nine women”)
• Examples:
• fossil fuels (next slide: oil and gas)
• fresh water
• road transport and traffic jams
• “run on the bank”
3
Dr. A.M. Diederen MEngSci, June 27, 2009Metal minerals scarcity and the Elements of Hope5
peak =
maximum production
rate, when supply can
no longer grow
Decreasing energy per capita
On a global scale “regular” oil has probably peaked, natural gas will follow a decade later
progress in technology
� more “efficient”
depletion (e.g. North
Sea)
Dr. A.M. Diederen MEngSci, June 27, 2009Metal minerals scarcity and the Elements of Hope6
Decreasing energy per capita
Original source: The Olduvai Theory by Richard C. Duncan, 1989
global energy
production can no
longer carry current
world GDP
worse than a zero sum
game � increased
prospects for conflicts
4
Dr. A.M. Diederen MEngSci, June 27, 2009Metal minerals scarcity and the Elements of Hope7
Energy scarcity means materials scarcity
Lower ore grades need exponentially more energy for extraction
copper
ore
gra
de
example: copper
The production of 1 tonne
of copper produces around
250 tonnes of solid waste
with associated energy
consumption
(Monash University, 2007)
Dr. A.M. Diederen MEngSci, June 27, 2009Metal minerals scarcity and the Elements of Hope8
Remaining relevant resources of
aluminum, iron, silicon,
magnesium, titanium, …..
Extremely energy-intensive to extract
Energy scarcity means materials scarcity
Mineralogical barrier for elements ≥ 0.1% (mass) earth’s crust
Source: “Exploring the resource base” by Brian J. Skinner, Yale University, 2001
5
Dr. A.M. Diederen MEngSci, June 27, 2009Metal minerals scarcity and the Elements of Hope9
Remaining relevant resources of
other minerals
“rare”: Cu, Sn, Ni, Sb, Ag, ….
“trace”: Pt, In, Se, Ga, ….
Extremely energy-intensive to extract
Source: “Exploring the resource base” by Brian J. Skinner, Yale University, 2001
Energy scarcity means materials scarcity
Mineralogical barrier for elements < 0.1% (mass) earth’s crust
Dr. A.M. Diederen MEngSci, June 27, 2009Metal minerals scarcity and the Elements of Hope10
Energy scarcity means materials scarcity
Materials scarcity: parallels with “peak oil”
• The time-production profile of large individual mines and of the
summation hereof resembles a bell-shaped curve comparable with oil
• The right part of the bell-shaped curve is more difficult to realize
because the “low-hanging fruit” has already been harvested
• It takes increasingly more energy to “harvest” the remaining energy
and the remaining minerals
source: Bardi en Pagani, 2007
6
Dr. A.M. Diederen MEngSci, June 27, 2009Metal minerals scarcity and the Elements of Hope11
Metal minerals reserves
Reserves versus Resources and Resource Base
see next slidefocus on Reserves!!
out of reach with
energy scarcity
Dr. A.M. Diederen MEngSci, June 27, 2009Metal minerals scarcity and the Elements of Hope12
Metal minerals reserves
Discovery rate of major mineral deposits
, Raw Materials Group
low expectations of yet to be
discovered deposits
7
Dr. A.M. Diederen MEngSci, June 27, 2009Metal minerals scarcity and the Elements of Hope13
Timing of metals scarcity
Absolute and relative quantities: global reserves
Global reserves excluding magnesium
and iron (around 10 billion metric tons
of metal elements)
Al CrCu MnTi ZnBa PbREM NiZr VMo CoSr SnLi WNb SbAs CdY BiAg TaBe PGMHg AuTe InRe Tl
based on USGS
Dr. A.M. Diederen MEngSci, June 27, 2009Metal minerals scarcity and the Elements of Hope14
Timing of metals scarcity
Absolute and relative quantities: global production
Annual global primary production
excluding iron (around 110 million metric tons
of metal elements)
Al Cu
Mn Zn
Cr Ba
Mg Ti
Pb Ni
Zr Sr
Sn Mo
Sb REM
W Co
As V
Nb Li
Ag Cd
Y Bi
Au Hg
Ta In
PGM Te
Be Re
Tl
based on USGS
8
Dr. A.M. Diederen MEngSci, June 27, 2009Metal minerals scarcity and the Elements of Hope15
Timing of metals scarcity
“Years to go” versus bell-shaped curve
Time
Pro
duction
Years left at sustained 2% annual primary production growth,
based on reserves
0
10
20
30
40
50
Sr Ag Sb Au Zn As Sn In Zr Pb Cd Ba Hg W Cu Tl Mn Ni Mo Re Bi Y Nb Fe
Element
Years
peak date may arrive sooner !!
Source: Dr. A.M. Diederen, Metal minerals scarcity: a call for
managed austerity and the elements of hope, March 10, 2009,
published at TheOilDrum.com and hcss.nl
Dr. A.M. Diederen MEngSci, June 27, 2009Metal minerals scarcity and the Elements of Hope16
Geopolitical situation
Europe and the US have already depleted a significant part of their resources
Sources: Raw Materials Data, Stockholm 2004, Sames, Raw Materials Group
9
Dr. A.M. Diederen MEngSci, June 27, 2009Metal minerals scarcity and the Elements of Hope17
Geopolitical situation
Example: net import balance USA 2007
Mn 100%
Co 78%
Ni 17%
Zn 58%
Ga 99%
As 100%
Sr 100%Nb 100%
Pt 94%
Ag 55%
In 100%
Sn 79%
Sb 86%
Ba 83%
LA 100%
Ta 100%
W 70%
Re 86%
Ti 73%Cr 62%
Cu 37%
Sc 100%
V 100%
Y 100%
LA = lanthanoids
(rare earth metals)
Bi 95%
Source: USGS
even worse
for EU
Dr. A.M. Diederen MEngSci, June 27, 2009Metal minerals scarcity and the Elements of Hope18
Geopolitical situation
Increasing dependence on limited resources
China restricted REM
exports since 2004
(-/- 30%)
2009:
China became share-
holder in 2 major REM
companies in Australia
97% of primary production of rare earth metals (REM)
(Sc + Y + lanthanoids) comes from China
Sources: naumov 2008, Fraunhofer Institute 2009
10
Dr. A.M. Diederen MEngSci, June 27, 2009Metal minerals scarcity and the Elements of Hope19
Consequences of metals scarcity
• Less affordable mass-produced electronic products mobile phones, flatscreen TV’s, PC’s, …
• Forget large-scale conversion towards alternative energy sources
• Forget large-scale electrification of land-based transport
• Chemical compounds will become more expensive
• Construction and machining will become more expensive
• Metals scarcity will aggravate energy scarcity !!
Dr. A.M. Diederen MEngSci, June 27, 2009Metal minerals scarcity and the Elements of Hope20
Solution frameworks
What can be done about metals scarcity?
1. Use less or “managed austerity”most important solution but reluctant human behaviour leads to low priority
2. Longer product lifetime
3. Recycling and reuse of
materials
4. Substitution of materials
5. Develop adapted new
products
6. Stockpiles
11
Dr. A.M. Diederen MEngSci, June 27, 2009Metal minerals scarcity and the Elements of Hope21
Solution frameworks
What can be done about metals scarcity?
1. Use less or “managed austerity”most important solution but reluctant human behaviour leads to low priority
2. Longer product lifetime
3. Recycling and reuse of
materials
4. Substitution of materials
5. Develop adapted new
products
6. Stockpiles
H C N O P S Cl non-metal elements
Na Mg Al Si elements of hope
K Ca Fe
Ti Cr Mn Cu
B F Ar Br critical elements
frugal elements Li Be Sc V Co Ni Zn Ga
Ge As Sr Y Zr Nb Mo PGM
Ag Cd In Sn Sb Te Ba REM
Ta W Re Au Hg Tl Pb Bi
Source: Dr. A.M. Diederen, Metal minerals scarcity: a call for
managed austerity and the elements of hope,
March 10, 2009, published at TheOilDrum.com and hcss.nl
Dr. A.M. Diederen MEngSci, June 27, 2009Metal minerals scarcity and the Elements of Hope22
Solution frameworks
The Elements of Hope � substitution
H C N O P S Cl non-metal elements
Na Mg Al Si elements of hope
K Ca Fe
Ti Cr Mn Cu
B F Ar Br critical elements
frugal elements Li Be Sc V Co Ni Zn Ga
Ge As Sr Y Zr Nb Mo PGM
Ag Cd In Sn Sb Te Ba REM
Ta W Re Au Hg Tl Pb Bi
H
C N O
Na Mg Al Si P S Cl
K Ca Fe
the green elements are macronutrients
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12
Dr. A.M. Diederen MEngSci, June 27, 2009Metal minerals scarcity and the Elements of Hope23
Bottomline
• One of the grave consequences of energy scarcity is metals
scarcityand metals scarcity will aggravate energy scarcity !!
• Metals scarcity directly undermines our ability to sustain our
current level of material prosperity
• Logical conclusion: use less !!
• Technology alone won’t solve our problems, we need to
co-ordinate our efforts towards a collective goal of sustainability
� “managed austerity”
Dr. A.M. Diederen MEngSci, June 27, 2009Metal minerals scarcity and the Elements of Hope24
Discussion
free market economy?
China’s solution?
………?
………?
………?