GLOBAL SMART GRID DRIVERS - International Energy … · EUROPEAN UNION SMART METER INSTALLATIONS, 2011-20E Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance. 0 6 12 18 24 30 36 0 40 80 120 160

GLOBAL SMART GRID DRIVERS, 12 SEPTEMBER 2012 1 / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / /

GLOBAL SMART GRID

DRIVERS

IEA/SEAI, DUBLIN IRELAND

12 SEPTEMBER 2012

COLIN MCKERRACHER

GLOBAL SMART GRID DRIVERS, 12 SEPTEMBER 2012 2 / / / /

CONTENTS

Smart grid: a global market

Smart grid drivers

Case studies


GLOBAL SMART GRID MARKET BY REGION, 2008-17E

($BN)

Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance.

Note: Rest of world includes South America, Australia and New Zealand, Africa, Middle

East and non-EU Europe.

2.5 2.84.9 5.4 5.0 4.4 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.5

1.0

0.81.2 1.5 2.4 3.2

5.0 5.46.6

2.1

2.93.3 4.1

4.9 3.72.5 2.2

2.2

0.60.9

1.3 2.2

4.0 4.23.4

0.8

0.9

1.1

1.3

2.0

2.83.4

4.0 4.24.1

0.8

1.0

1.6

2.0

2.93.3

3.23.8

4.2

4.3

7.8

10.9

13.3

15.5

18.620.0

22.924.0

25.0

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012e 2013e 2014e 2015e 2016e 2017e

Rest of world

Other Asia

Japan

China

EU 27

North America


EUROPEAN UNION SMART METER INSTALLATIONS, 2011-

20E


0

6

12

18

24

30

36

0

40

80

120

160

200

240

2011 2012e 2013e 2014e 2015e 2016e 2017e 2018e 2019e 2020e

Others

Finland

Austria

Portugal

Belgium

Netherlands

Germany

UK

Spain

France

Sweden

Italy

annual installations


CONTENTS


Smart grid drivers

Case studies


SMART GRID DRIVERS

Source: BNEF Pre-Forum Survey.

Note: 26 responses received; total 114 votes cast. New loads = electric vehicles, heat

pumps etc.

0 5 10 15 20

Increasing renewable generation

Demand growth and new loads

Increasing distributed energy resources

Peak demand constraints

Climate change / environmental drivers

System reliability / quality of service

Ageing infrastructure

Energy security

Need for new generation investment


DRIVERS: WIND PENETRATION (% OF INSTALLED

CAPACITY)


0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35%

Denmark

Portugal

Spain

Germany

Ireland

Netherlands

Greece

India

Sweden

UK

Italy

Belgium

China

France

USA

Poland

Europe

Rest of world


DRIVERS:

SYSTEM AVERAGE INTERRUPTION INDICES BY COUNTRY

Note: 2007 data.

Duration index Frequency index

Source: CEER, Bloomberg New Energy Finance.

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

0

50

100

150

200

250

300U

S

Sp

ain

UK

Au

str

ia

Fra

nce

Ita

ly

Ne

the

rla

nd

s

De

nm

ark

Ge

rma

ny

Duration Frequency


0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%

IndiaMexico

BrazilArgentina

TurkeySaudi Arabia

RussiaIndonesia

UKSouth Africa

CanadaItaly

USFranceChina

AustraliaSouth Korea

Japan Germany

DRIVERS: TRANSMISSION & DISTRIBUTION LOSSES IN

G20 NATIONS, 2009 (% OF POWER GENERATED)

India:

$5bn/yr

South Africa:

$600m/yr

Brazil:

$5.1bn/yr

NON-TECHNICAL

LOSSES

Turkey:

$895m/yr

Source: METI, various national sources, Bloomberg New Energy Finance.


DRIVERS: FORECAST EV PENETRATION 2011-2030 (% ANNUAL LIGHT VEHICLE SALES)

Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

2011 2015 2020 2025 2030

US

Germany

UK

Spain

France

Italy


0

40

80

120

160

200

240

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030

Annual battery production (GWh) Battery pack price ($/kWh)

TOTAL LI-ION BATTERY PACK COST, TRACTION BATTERY

PRODUCTION, 2010-30


Total pack cost ($/kWh) Annual production (GWh)

Electric Vehicle Battery Price

Index Q1 2012 results:

$690/kWh

Chinese prices:

$500/kWh


SMART GRID DRIVERS AND PROJECT TYPES

Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance..

AMI Distribution

automation

HEMS/

BEMS

Energy

storage

Demand

response

Increasing renewable

generation

√

√

√

√

Improved grid

reliability

√ √

√

√

Reduce non technical

losses

√

√

EV integration

√

√

Rising peak demand √

√ √

Ageing infrastructure √

√

√

√

√


CONTENTS


Smart grid drivers

Case studies


CASE STUDY- AUSTRALIA T&D INFRASTRUCTURE

INVESTMENTS (AUD M)

Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance..

0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 9,000

Energex (QLD)

Ergon Energy (QLD)

Ausgrid (NSW)

Endeavor Energy (NSW)

Essential Energy (NSW)

Powercor (VIC)

SP Ausnet (VIC)

United Energy (VIC)

CitiPower (VIC)

Jemena (VIC)

ETSA (SA)

Aurora Energy (TAS)

ActewAGL (ACT)

Current regulatory period Previous regulatory period Regulated asset base


SMART GRID DRIVERS: US VS. EUROPE

KEY DRIVERS FOR INVESTMENT

• Energy efficiency

• Peak load management

• Integrate RE / EV

• Reduce opex

• Improve asset mgmt

• Improve SAIDI/SAIFI

• Manage major storms

ECONOMIC

OPERATIONS

RELIABILITY

ENERGY

SECURITY

• Efficiency

• RE and DER

• Electric vehicles

• Reduce opex

• Improve asset mgmt

• Deregulation

• Competition

• Service innovation

• European power

markets

• European super-grid

CLEAN

ENERGY

LIBERALIS-

ATION

MARKETS /

INTEGRATION

OPERATIONS

• $4.5bn stimulus

• Job creation

• Tech companies

1

2

3

4

1

2

3

4


BUT, THE PICTURE CAN CHANGE


STATES AND COUNTRIES WITH OPT-OUT PROVISIONS

FOR CONSUMERS TO REFUSE SMART METERS


Note: No opt-out programme in UK, but regulator has clarified that consumers cannot

be forced to have a smart meter. Australia opt-out is for TOU only.

Canada

United States

In place

Proposed

Australia

Europe


SMART METERING IN BRAZIL

Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, ANEEL

Regulator (ANEEL) resolution released 7 August 2012.

0.8

3.9

4.8 4.8 4.8

0.1

0.3

0.5 0.5 0.6

0.1 0.2

0.9

4.3

5.3 5.3 5.4

2011 2012e 2013e 2014e 2015e 2016e 2017e

Non-regulated

Regulated

Past projects

• Distributors to make smart meters available beginning Feb.

2014.

• Low-income exemption. Non technical losses addressed

separately.

• New meters only, no mass replacement. Covers low

voltage customers only.

• International and domestic vendor presence

• Challenging timeline


SMART GRID REGULATORY INNOVATION IN ITALY AND

PORTUGAL

• 2% rider for smart grid investments by

T&D operators

• Automation, protection, control, DG

integration, storage

• 8 projects approved in 2011 (EUR 16.5m)

• Terna energy storage project in 2012

• 1.5% rider for InovGrid project investments

• Increased operational efficiency

requirements: 0.1% 2013, 0.25% in 2014

ITALY (AEEG) PORTUGAL (ERSE)

7.0%

7.6%

8.6%

9.5%

2.0%

2.0%

2.0%

1.5%

Italy (2008-11)

Italy (pre-2012)

Italy (2012-13)

Portugal (2012-14)

Traditional investments Smart' investments incentive


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DRIVERS

COLIN MCKERRACHER –

[email protected]

mailto:[email protected]

Documents

GLOBAL SMART GRID DRIVERS - International Energy … · EUROPEAN UNION SMART METER INSTALLATIONS, 2011-20E Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance. 0 6 12 18 24 30 36 0 40 80 120 160